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Created by the 1983 Washington Legislature

Mission: carry out non–partisan research on projects assigned by the legislature or the Institute’s Board of Directors

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Overview Directions E.g., Crime Cost Benefit Bottom Line

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“An Ounce of Prevention is Worth a

Pound of Cure”

“A Stitch in Time Saves Nine”

“A Dollar Saved is a Dollar Earned”

Old Sayings Cost Benefit Translation

Old sayings are poetic, cost-benefit translations are boring.

Old sayings are conclusions, cost-benefit translations are questions with testable hypotheses….science is indicated.

Can a dollar invested now in program X

generate more than a dollar in benefits in the years ahead (in present

value terms)?

A “Real World” Hurdle for C/B in Public Policy

Overview Directions E.g., Crime Cost Benefit Bottom Line

Recent Legislative Directions to WSIPP to Produce Cost-Benefit and Evidence-Based Information:

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Child Abuse and Out of Home Placement of Children (2007 Session) “…study evidence-based, cost-effective programs and policies to reduce the likelihood of children entering and remaining in the child welfare system, including both prevention and intervention programs.”

K-12 Education Outcomes (2007 Session) Develop funding options that “…reflect the most effective instructional strategies and service delivery models and be based on research-proven education programs and activities with demonstrated cost benefits.”

Prevention Programs in Early Childhood (2003 Session) “…review research assessing the effectiveness of prevention and early intervention programs…to reduce the at-risk behaviors for children and youth…and identify specific research-proven programs that produce a positive return on the dollar compared to the costs of the program.”

K-12 Education Outcomes (2006 Session) Study “the cost-benefits of various K–12 educational programs and services. The goal for the effort is to provide policymakers with additional information to aid in decision making. .”

Overview Directions E.g., Crime Cost Benefit Bottom Line

(Continued) Recent Legislative Directions to WSIPP:

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Substance Abuse and Mental Health (2005 Session) “…study the net short-run and long-run fiscal savings to state and local governments of implementing evidence-based treatment of chemical dependency disorders, mental disorders, and co-occurring mental and substance abuse disorders…project total fiscal impacts under alternative implementation scenarios. In addition to fiscal outcomes, the institute shall estimate the long-run effects that an evidence-based strategy could have on statewide education, crime, child abuse and neglect, substance abuse, and economic outcomes…”

Crime, Criminal Justice Costs, & Prison Construction (2005 Session) “…study the net short-run and long-run fiscal savings to state and local governments of implementing evidence-based treatment human service and corrections programs and policies, including prevention and intervention programs, sentencing alternatives, and the use of risk factors in sentencing. The institute shall use the results from its 2004 report on cost-beneficial prevention and early intervention programs and its work on effective adult corrections programs to project total fiscal impacts under alternative implementation scenarios. . .”

Developmental Disabilities (2008 Session) Study “review of research on service and support programs for children and adults with developmental disabilities, excluding special education, and an economicanalysis of net program costs and benefits. . .”

Overview Directions E.g., Crime Cost Benefit Bottom Line

Evidence-Based Public Policy in Washington State: The Road from Studies to Policy Changes

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? someYesYesGeneralYesMentalHealth

? ? ? ? ? UnderwayDevelopmen-tal Disability

? someYesYesGeneralYesSubstanceAbuse

somesomeUnderway Yes, and Underway

Specific Yes, and Underway

K–12 & Early Educ.

? someYesYesSpecific YesChild Abuse & Neglect

YesYesYesYesSpecific YesCrime

What Works? Outcome of LegislativeInterest

SystematicReview of Evidence?

SpecificList or

GeneralFinding?

Cost-Benefit? Policy Change? Program

LevelCost-

Benefit?

PortfolioLevelCost-

Benefit?

Legis-lative

action?

Execu-tive

action?

YesYesYesYesSpecific YesCrime

Overview Directions E.g., Crime Cost Benefit Bottom Line

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Adult Prison Incarceration Rates: 1930 to 2005

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

*Incarceration Rate

*The incarceration rate is defined as the number of inmates in state prisons per 1,000 18- to 49-year-olds in Washington or the United States.

Dec-06Forecast for WA

UnitedStates

Washington

Overview Directions E.g., Crime Cost Benefit Bottom Line

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In 2005, crime rates were 26% lower than they were in 1980.

In 1980, taxpayers spent $589 per household on the criminal justice system.Today they spend $1,125: a 91% increase.

All Data are for Washington State: 1980 to 2005

-40%

-20%

0%

+20%

+40%

+60%

+80%

+100%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Taxpayer Costs Are Up(Inflation-Adjusted Criminal Justice

Dollars Per Household)

$

$

$$$$ $

$

$$$

$$ $

$ $ $$ $$

$ $ $ $

2010 2015

?

?

?

?Percent Change Since

1980

Crime Rates and Taxpayer Costs: 1980 to 2005

Overview Directions E.g., Crime Cost Benefit Bottom Line

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1. What works & what doesn’t? We located 571 rigorous (comparison group), real world evaluations of adult and juvenilecorrections programs, & prevention.

Our Research Approach: 3 Steps

Overview Directions E.g., Crime Cost Benefit Bottom Line

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1. What Works?

2. What Doesn’t?

3. What Are the Benefits & Costs?

Our“Consumer

Reports” List

www.wsipp.wa.gov

Overview Directions E.g., Crime Cost Benefit Bottom Line

Change In Crime(# of EB Studies)

Benefits - Costs (per-person, life cycle)( )

Selected Results Adult Offenders

Juvenile Offenders

Prevention

•

•

•P ti

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Long-run net taxpayer benefitsBenefit-to-cost ratio Return on investment Crime Rate in 2020 (2005 rate = 52)

Current Level AggressiveModerate Taxpayer Summary Statistics Annual cost of portfolio

$1.1 billion $1.7 billion $2.4 billion

$2.45 $2.55 $2.6024% 27% 28% 48 48 49

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

CFC prison forecast and WSIPP extension Forecast with Current Level Portfolio

Forecast with Moderate Implementation Portfolio Forecast with Aggressive Implementation Portfolio

Existing Prison Supply& Rented Jail Beds

Prison Supply & Demand in Washington: 2008 to 2030

02008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 20300

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Prison Beds

Dec 2006 Prison Bed Forecast Current Level Portfolio “Moderate” Expansion Portfolio “Aggressive” Expansion Portfolio

Existing Prison Supply& Rented Jail Beds

2 prison shortfall

3

$41 million $63 million $85 million

Overview Directions E.g., Crime Cost Benefit Bottom Line

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People Make Decisions, Studies Don’t1. Money Matters

Two aisles, one theme: “Wise use of taxpayer's dollar.” Balanced budget requirement forces choices. C/B

Local, long-term, honest broker. “Consumer Reports” Importance of consistent, comparative costs & benefits.

2. The Cost Benefit Messenger Matters

“I want to fight crime and lower taxpayer costs”more than “What is the ROI on drug courts?” g“I want to improve high school graduation rates” more than “What is the ROI on early childhood education?”

3. “Big Picture” Tangible Outcomes Matter

yThese higher-level outcomes place significant demands on research.

Techniques: meta-analysis (can’t play favorites); expected value & risk analysis of giving the wrong advice.