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2017 NMHC Apartment Strategies Outlook Conference January 24, 2017
Apartment Markets: A Deep Dive
2017 Forecast Completions
SUDDENLY, NOT SO HOT
EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH BY SUBMARKETHOUSTON, TX
2014 2015 2016
Source: Axiometrics
EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH BY SUBMARKETSAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
2014 2015 2016
Source: Axiometrics
OVERSUPPLIED?
URBAN BOOM: BARRIERS TO ENTRY, NO MORE
SUPPLY IS LIMITING URBAN RENT GROWTH
DEMAND & RENEWAL TRENDS BEST IN TOP-TIER ‘BURBS
URBAN INVESTORS BANK ON APPRECIATION, NOT NOI
4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0%
CBD: Superior Job Growth Metro
CBD: Slow Job Growth Metro
SUBURB: High Rent/Superior JobGrowth Metro
SUBURB: High Rent/Inferior JobGrowth Metro
SUBURB: Low Rent/Superior JobGrowth Metro
SUBURB: Low Rent/Inferior JobGrowth Metro
NCREIF Income Return By Geography Type
10-Year Income Return 3-Year Income Return
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
CBD: Superior Job Growth Metro
CBD: Slow Job Growth Metro
SUBURB: High Rent/Superior JobGrowth Metro
SUBURB: High Rent/Inferior JobGrowth Metro
SUBURB: Low Rent/Superior JobGrowth Metro
SUBURB: Low Rent/Inferior JobGrowth Metro
NCREIF Capital Return By Geography Type
10-Year Capital Return3-Year Capital Return
LATE TO THE PARTY
LATE-RECOVERY MARKETS CONTINUE TO SHINE
*Late Recovery Group includes Atlanta, Las Vegas, Orlando and Phoenix
SOLID GROWTH, BUT...
WHAT HAPPENS IF WE CHANGE THE SCALE?
DO YOU REALLY NEED TO BE > 4% TO BE “GOOD”?
ANNUAL RENT GROWTH (DECEMBER 2016)SEATTLE, WA
Source: Axiometrics
4%
6%
ANNUAL RENT GROWTH (DECEMBER 2016)SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Source: Axiometrics
6%
4%
STEADY EDDIE
2016 OCCUPANCY RATES
Source: Axiometrics
Minneapolis 96.9%
New York 96.6%
Miami 96.4%
Anaheim 96.2%
San Diego 96.2%
National 95.0%
TWO FACTORS LET’S ALL AGREETO STOP WORRYING ABOUT
DON’T BUY THE “AFFORDABILITY CRISIS” HEADLINES
Based on Rent Roll Data for Market-Rate Apartments in the U.S.
RENT-TO-INCOME RATIOS HIGHEST IN CHEAPEST UNITS
Based on Rent Roll Data for Market-Rate Apartments in the U.S.
AFFORDABILITY VARIES BY RENTER PROFILE
Based on Rent Roll Data for Market-Rate Apartments in the U.S.
SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING IN DALLAS, TX
Source: Axiometrics, Wall Street Journal
BIG QUESTIONS
Slide Number 1Slide Number 2SUDDENLY, NOT SO HOTEffective rent growth by submarket�Houston, txEffective rent growth by submarket�San Francisco bay areaoversupplied?Urban boom: Barriers to entry, no moreSupply is limiting urban rent growthDemand & renewal trends best in top-tier ‘burbsUrban investors bank on appreciation, not NOILATE TO THE PARTYlate-recovery markets continue to shinesolid growth, but...What happens if we change the scale?��Do you really need to be > 4% to be “good”?Annual rent growth (December 2016)�Seattle, WAAnnual rent growth (December 2016)�Southern Californiasteady eddie2016 Occupancy ratesTwo factors let’s all agree�to stop worrying aboutDon’t buy the “affordability crisis” headlinesRent-to-income ratios highest in cheapest unitsAffordability varies by renter profileSingle-family housing in dallas, txBig questions