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APICS Cleveland October, 2015 Newsletter
Topic: Federal Reserve Bank
Speaker: Ms. Anne Chen
Location: The City Club 850 Euclid Ave. Cleveland, Ohio 44114 2nd Floor Conf Rm
Date: Wednesday, October 14th, 2015
Agenda: 5:30—6:15 PM Arrival / Registration 6:15—7:00 PM Dinner 7:00—8:00 PM Presentation 8:00—8:30 PM Discuss / Closing Remarks
Admission: APICS Member $30.00 Non-Member $35.00 Student Member $10.00 Student Non-Member $15.00 Add $5 if you pay at the door
RSVP: Program deadline for registration is Tuesday, October 13th, 2015
Registration Register and pay online by visiting us at & Payment: http://www.apicscleveland.org/?q=pdms . You
may register online and pay online using Visa, MasterCard, Discover, or American Express. There will be a $5 up charge if you need to pay at the door.
Points Receive One Certification Maintenance Point for each PDM attended.
OCTOBER PDM DETAILS
“The mission of the Cleveland Chapter is
to continue to be the premier provider
of operations management education in
the greater Cleveland area.”
APICS Cleveland Chapter October PDM Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, regional economic update.
Join us for an enlightening discussion from our guest speaker, Ms. Anne Chen from the Federal Reserve Bank.
Ms. Anne Chen is a
research analyst in
the Research Depart-
ment at Federal Re-
serve Bank of Cleve-
land. She joined the
Cleveland Reserve
Bank in 2014 as an
undergraduate intern
and assumed her cur-
rent position in July,
2015. Ms. Chen’s primary interests include ap-
plied microeconomics, labor economics, interna-
tional economics, and economics of education.
Ms. Chen holds a bachelor’s degree in economics
from the University of Georgia.
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INSIDE THIS ISSUE 1. Monthly PDM Topic - 5 Class Offerings for this year 2. Federal Reserve Bank, Cleveland 6. Pictures from last May PDM 3. Speaker Bio 7. Membership Info
4. President’s Message 8. BOD Contact Page
President’s Message
Is U.S. Manufacturing In Trouble?
To hear directly from the Cleveland Federal Reserve, please join us at the October 2015 Professional Development Meeting at the City Club.
Nearly all key indicators measuring the health of manufacturers in the world’s largest economy have disappointed over the past year. If manufacturing remains a solid leading indicator of where the economy is headed, this spells bad news for the wider economy and prospects for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike any time soon.
The ISM index for September 2015 is expected to dip to 50.6 from 51.1 in August according to econo-mists polled by Reuters. A number of 50 plus change would mean barely any growth at all. (Anything above 50 denotes expansion while below implies contraction). Over the past year, other indicators measuring the health of manufacturers have told a similar tale - and sometimes worse. Economists at Wells Fargo, wrote:
A meaningful pickup in manufacturing does not appear to be in the cards anytime soon. The first three regional purchasing managers’ indices released for September all showed activity contracting over the month.
Industry remains under pressure — and particularly for exporters, because of the strong dollar, which makes goods relatively more expensive abroad. Deutsche Bank’s wrote:
U.S. equities rarely maintain a prolonged sell-off without ISM in contraction mode (less than 50). The last print was 51.1, the recent Markit PMI was stable, but the last two NY Empire imply a drop to as low at 46.
If the downward trend in ISM continues, it could extend the 9 percent drop in U.S. stocks so far this year. Also it could also tap the brakes on economic growth, which is already widely expected to have slowed this quarter from 3.9 percent in the second quarter. A persistently stronger dollar makes that possibility more real. The US dollar has been strengthening against a basket of other currencies almost uninterruptedly since mid-2014 in anticipation of higher interest rates. That rally paused after the Fed passed up an opportunity to hike rates two weeks ago, but the dollar is firming again. If manufacturing continues to weaken, the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged near zero for longer could prove prudent, rather than a missed opportunity as many economists called it in a Reuters poll. Fed Chair Janet Yellen listed various global factors – from an economic slowdown in China to Canada’s woes due to falling oil prices – explaining why the central bank left policy steady. What escaped notice was the lack of mention, even in passing, in the Fed’s rhetoric of how manufac-turers are stumbling back home.
4
President’s Message (continued from page 4)
Over 17,000 manufacturing establishments have shut shop between the end of the Great Recession and the beginning of 2013, according to a paper published by Washington D.C.-based Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. American manufacturing has shed over a million jobs during the same period, the paper published early this year by the public policy think-thank goes on to state. And U.S. manufacturers are not alone in experiencing trouble. China’s factory sector activity shrank to a 6 ½ year low in September, data released last week showed. One main reason why forecasters have been dismissive of the alarming trend in manufacturing is the ongoing strength in activity at services firms, which make up a much larger proportion of activity. ISM’s sister survey of non-manufacturing companies suggests things are much better on that front. That reading was at 59 in August, below a recent peak but not far off levels seen in late 2005, during boom times. Still, manufacturing makes up 12 percent of the U.S. economy and accounts for over 72 percent of industrial production. Fed policymakers are either as skeptical as some economists of the recent series of disappointing man-ufacturing reports or know more than they are letting on, as Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro in New York put it while describing the surprisingly dovish tone at their meeting two weeks ago. This has sparked a “the Fed knows something we don’t” trade in the markets. Whether the Fed sees this slowdown as a serious risk or not, what is clear is that investors and those closely tracking global monetary policy ignore the condition of U.S. manufacturers at their own peril. Best regards, Bob Dr. Robert Stoll APICS Cleveland Chapter [email protected]
5
APICS Cleveland Chapter
Class Schedule For 2015-16 Program Year
7
Fall Winter Spring
East @ Parker BSCM ECO CSCP
W Dardir W Dardir D Okocha
Tues Tues Tues
9/8-11/17 1/12-3/8 3/28 -6/20
6:00 –8:00pm
Central @ Kichler MPR DSP BSCM
D Okocha D Okocha W Dardir
Mon Tues Tues
9/14 11/9 1/12 - 3/8 3/29 - 6/7
6:00 –8:00pm
West @ Compass Health BSCM MPR None
S Holter S Holter
Mon Mon
9/14-11/23 1/11 - 3/7
6:00 –8:00pm
Pictures From Our Last (September) PDM.
“Plant Tour - Cleveland Whiskey”
9
10
APICS - Chapter Membership & Anniversaries October, 2015
New Certification Congratulations!!! Laura Nahrstedt, CPIM
New Members
Kerrin Eyer
Joe Hughes
Xinyi Yin
Zenan Zhou
James Sapanos
Jiyuan Zang
Ashraf Kamal
Devin Pritschau
Deepak Hooda
LE REN
Natalia Hawryliw
Shanae Hairston
Anne Kelly
Anniversaries
10 Years
Melina A Dillon, CPIM
Richard B Pitingolo, CPIM
(open) Past President
Robert Stoll President Ashland University
(open) President-Elect
(open) Secretary
Dan DiFilippo, CPIM Treasurer Tarkett
Dan Zubricky Director of Programs / Events Arcelor Mittal
Ed Merker, CPIM Director of Communications Swagelok Company
(open) Academic Affairs Advisor
Roger Davis Director of Chapter Marketing Applied Medical Technologies
Dennis Okocha, CPIM, CSCP Director of Membership Saint-Gobain Performance Plastics
(open) Director at Large
Carol Utrup Director of Education
Yvonne Nader Advisor Systems & Technology America Greetings Corp
Kevin Ward Employment Services Coordinator Accounting Principals
Bonnie Perney Historian
Bittany Stoll Administrative Assistant Ashland University
Oya Tukel Representative Cleveland State University
Kamlesh Mathur Representative Case Weatherhead School of Mgmt
(open) Representative John Carroll University
Please contact Ed Merker at [email protected]
for article submissions or editorial comments
Check out our meeting and class schedule at www.apicscleveland.org
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