1May 2019, Vol. 39, No. 4 RUSI Newsbrief

The New ‘Space Race’

The Apollo 11 mission, which marks its 50th anniversary in July of this year, was a milestone in human space

exploration. The landing of US astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin on the surface of the Moon was the culmination of a nearly 10-year effort, following President John F Kennedy’s proclamation in 1961 that Americans would land on the Moon by the end of the decade. Considering that human space flight was still in its infancy at that stage, coming only one month after Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin’s orbit of the Earth, this was considered a rather ambitions goal.

Fast forward to the current climate of space exploration, and it may appear that remarkably little has changed. Apollo 11 was deemed to have won the US the ‘space race’, and the end of the Cold War led to less overt competition in space. Despite an ever-increasing number of actors becoming involved – including both states and, eventually, private companies – human space activity has been limited to expeditions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), primarily through the International Space Station (ISS). In recent years, there has been much talk about Mars as the next goal, particularly amidst the rise of companies run by billionaires that have their own ambitions, such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin.

However, several factors have culminated to bring human lunar exploration back to the forefront of US plans, not least of which being the landing of a Chinese rover on the far side of the Moon in January 2019. Such activities have led to talk of a second

‘space race’ and a new era of competition in space, with China taking the place of the Soviet Union this time around. Yet, while there is no doubt that space is a contested environment and essential for terrestrial military operations – through support to, among other things, navigation, communication, intelligence and precision strikes – an analysis of current and planned lunar activity within the broader space landscape shows that such views may be unfounded. Operations in space are correlated with those on Earth and are intrinsically linked to a state’s wider political ambitions. It is therefore important to understand the Apollo programme within the larger geopolitical landscape of the Cold War and, subsequently, contemporary ambitions within the current political climate, to better describe this activity.

The proposal by President Trump to create a Space Force as a new and separate branch of the military is ostensibly in reaction to Russian and Chinese developments in space capabilities

The early space activities of the US and Soviet Union can be seen, to a degree, as a microcosm of the Cold War. Rocket technology, developed during the Second World War, was integral to the creation of orbital launchers, and highlights the role

military ambition has played in space exploration since its outset. Early space explorers came almost exclusively from a military background, and the potential military benefits of space were being investigated from the beginning. However, more recently, antagonism was replaced by cooperation. US and Russian collaboration on the ISS, including the use of Russian Soyuz rockets to launch US astronauts into orbit, suggested that while there may still be competition in military space, civilian space had become more civil. Yet the decline of competition also led to a greater loss. Following the end of the Apollo programme, humans travelled no further than LEO. Disasters with the Challenger and Columbia Space Shuttle missions led to a lessening in public support and greater risk aversion, leaving ambition, but not capability, in the hands of emerging space states.

It took the entrance of billionaire entrepreneurs to bring a level of ambition back to the US and its allies. Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic company has gained headlines with its push for space tourism, while SpaceX has revolutionised space travel with its development and now regular use of reusable launch systems. The successful test flight of its Falcon Heavy rocket – the second most powerful rocket in history after the Apollo-era Saturn V – coupled with the launch of a Tesla car and the synchronised landing of the two side boosters brought excitement back into space travel after a period where missions had become somewhat routine. These wealthy individuals also make no secret of their own personal ambitions.

Apollo Plus Fifty: Lunar Ambitions and the New ‘Space Race’ Alexandra Stickings

50 years on from the first lunar landing, the Moon is once again taking centre stage in international space ambitions. Yet, within a more democratised and complex space environment, and with Mars and other celestial bodies seen as additional exploratory targets, talk of a new ‘space race’ may be misplaced.

2May 2019, Vol. 39, No. 4 RUSI Newsbrief

The election of US President Donald Trump in 2016 also had a significant effect on US plans for space. While the long timescales involved in major NASA projects, such as the Space Launch System (SLS), which will be the most powerful launcher in history and used for crewed missions, demonstrate that most projects were put in place

long before the current administration, there is no doubt that the rhetoric of both Trump and Vice President Mike Pence has brought space back to the front of US public consciousness. While much of this began with rather vague promises that ‘America will lead in space once again’ (which is debatable because, to most observers, it always has) recently

there have been more direct promises from the administration.

In 2017 Trump surprised NASA by suggesting a crewed Mars mission by the end of his first term, yet the more recent declarations have instead signalled a return to the Moon. At the April 2019 Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, one of the largest and most important

US astronaut Buzz Aldrin walking on the surface of the Moon during the Apollo 11 mission, 20 July 1969. 50 years on, the activities of China and other emerging space powers have led to talk of a second ‘space race’ and a new era of competition in space. Courtesy of Wikimedia/NASA

3May 2019, Vol. 39, No. 4 RUSI Newsbrief

annual space industry events, NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine outlined an accelerated plan to return humans to the Moon by 2024, including the completion of the SLS and the creation of a lunar Gateway in orbit around the Moon: a space station from which astronauts could descend to the Moon and which could also be used as a stepping stone towards a successful human mission to Mars. This is indeed ambitious, as the SLS has already had both cost overruns and time delays, suggesting that if this target date is to be reached, it may only be possible through collaboration with one of the private actors.

Operations in space are correlated with those on Earth and are intrinsically linked to a state’s wider political ambitions

The timing of these announcements is interesting, coming so soon after the successful January landing of the Chinese Chang’e rover on the far side of the Moon. China has made no secret of its space ambitions, going so far as to release a Space White Paper in December 2016, outlining its plans for everything from human spaceflight and its own space station to wider exploration of the solar system, all within the broader remit of creating benefits for all humankind. Indeed, the words ‘national security’ do not have a prominent place within this paper.

Of course, China’s space activities must also be put into context. In terms of its military space capabilities, it could be said that China is now the main rival to the US. It recognises the value of having assets in orbit to support its military operations and wider national security activities, and has been developing a range of non-kinetic counterspace capabilities (the ability to disrupt or disable the satellite of an adversary without destroying it) alongside its kinetic anti-satellite (ASAT) missile, tested in 2007. Its activities in this sense seem to underscore the reality that military space is essentially about the information provided by space assets, and that the

benefit is in denying these assets to an adversary, as recognised through the inclusion of space in China’s Strategic Support Force – established in 2016 and designed to improve the integration of cyber, space and information across the military – following the reorganisation of the People’s Liberation Army as part of a larger project of military reform.

China is not the only other country with space ambitions. In 2008, India’s Chandrayaan-1 mission landed a probe on the Moon, although its successor mission has since faced numerous setbacks. More recently, Israel has sent a mission to the Moon, although the Beresheet spacecraft crash landed following an engine failure. Japan has announced a future lunar mission and also recently celebrated the successful landing of its Hayabusa-2 spacecraft on an asteroid. In 2014, the European Space Agency Rosetta mission landed the Philae probe onto a comet. This is only the tip of what may in future prove to be a much larger iceberg, as more states increase their capabilities and recognise the impact of space exploration on national pride. Indeed, countries such as Germany and South Korea have also announced plans for lunar missions.

What is interesting is the media response, both to lunar missions and other missions of equivalent or greater technological complexity, in comparison to the Chinese mission. The Chang’e landing in January 2019 made headlines around the world, propagating the narrative that China is seeking to challenge the US for dominance of space and may, in fact, now be leading the ‘space race’. On the other hand, missions by other space agencies for the most part did not receive any coverage beyond the science sections of media outlets. It is true that the countries responsible for other missions are not seen by the US as potential adversaries, as China is, and this goes some way to explaining the reaction. The proposal by President Trump to create a Space Force as a new and separate branch of the military is ostensibly in reaction to Russian and Chinese developments in space capabilities, such as the perceived ‘abnormal’ behaviour of Russian satellites highlighted by a US official in August 2018, referring to orbital manoeuvres performed by these

satellites that were inconsistent with what had previously been seen. Unlike other missions, China’s lunar exploits were analysed more within a security context, in part because it is difficult to draw a line between its military and civil space activities. Indeed, some even went so far as to say that, as well as a scientific mission, this was a technology demonstrator and tester with the longer-term purpose of placing ASAT weapons in lunar orbit. It is difficult to know the precise degree to which the actions of others are the driving force behind the uptick in military space development in the US.

Early space explorers came almost exclusively from a military background, and the potential military benefits of space were being investigated from the beginning

What, then, can be determined as the current state of affairs in space, and in particular, the Moon? The difficulty in defining the breath of activities by various countries as a ‘race’ is that there is no clear finish line. The original space race was between two superpowers, with the general understanding that whoever landed humans on the Moon first would be deemed the winner. It is much more complicated now. To what extent will state ambitions come into conflict with those of rich individuals (who they will very likely need to partner with to reach their goals)? There is no doubt that the next decade is likely to be exciting for space enthusiasts and equally interesting for scholars of international security, but it may be best to not assign outdated terms to an emerging situation in which developments can often be astronomical.

Alexandra StickingsAlexandra is the Research Fellow for space policy and security at RUSI.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s, and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.

The New ‘Space Race’