APPenDIX eConomIC InDICAtorS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES … · 20 QUARTERLY INVESMENT SRATEGY Second Quarter 2015 Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer. 87

18 QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYSecond Quarter 2015

Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer.

46

50

54

Dec12

Jun1

3

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

Dec12

Jun1

3

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

42

46

50

54

58

-10

-5

0

5

10

Dec12

Jun1

3

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

-10

-5

0

5

10

Dec12

Jun1

3

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

-8

-4

0

4

8

Dec12

Jun1

3

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

-4

0

4

8

12

Dec12

Jun1

3

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

eConomIC InDICAtorSAPPenDIX

DEVELOPED ECONOMIES EMERGING ECONOMIESPurchasing managers’ Index Purchasing managers’ Index

Industrial Production growth (YoY%) Industrial Production growth (YoY%)

real gDP growth (QoQ%, saar)* real gDP growth (QoQ%, saar)*

*For some economies, annualised GDP data were estimated by UOBAM. For India, data are in year-on-year percentages (YoY%). Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 4 March 2015.

US Eurozone Japan

US Eurozone Japan

US Eurozone Japan

ChinaBrazil Russia India China HSBC

ChinaBrazil Russia India

ChinaBrazil Russia India

Note: All data are sourced from Bloomberg, Datastream and UOBAM unless otherwise stated, as at 4 March 2015.

19QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGYSecond Quarter 2015

UOB Asset Management

-2

0

2

4

Dec12

Jun1

3

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

Dec12

Jun1

3

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

0

4

8

12

16

DEVELOPED ECONOMIES EMERGING ECONOMIES

Country Interest rate Current rate (%pa)

Latest meeting

Change at Latest mtg (bp) Last Change next meeting

3-Mar-2015

United States Fed Funds Target Rate US 0.250 28 Jan 2015 — 16 Dec 08 (-75bp) 19 Mar 2015

eurozone Refinance Rate 0.050 5 Mar 2015 — 4 Sep 14 (-10bp) 15 Apr 2015

Japan BOJ Overnight Call Rate 0.100 17 Jun 2013 — 19 Dec 08 (-20bp) —

United Kingdom UK Official Bank Rate 0.500 6 Mar 2015 — 5 Mar 09 (-50bp) 9 Apr 2015

Brazil Brazil Selic Target Rate 12.750 4 Mar 2015 50 4 Mar 15 (+50bp) 29 Apr 2015

russia Russia Refinancing Rate Announcement 8.250 13 Sep 2013 — 13 Sep 12 (+25bp) —

India Repurchase Rate 7.500 28 Feb 2015 (25) 4 Mar 15 (-25bp) —

China 1 Year Benchmark Lending 5.350 — — 2 Mar 15 (-25bp) —

South Africa South Africa Repo Avg Rate 5.750 6 Mar 2015 — 17 Jul 14 (+25bp) 26 Mar 2015

Inflation - CPI (YoY%) Inflation - CPI (YoY%)

Central Banks Interest rates

Source: Bloomberg, as at 3 March 2015

US Eurozone Japan ChinaBrazil Russia India



87

92

97

102

107

112

117

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

94

99

104

109

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

92

97

102

107

112

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

98

103

108

113

118

Dec13

Jun1

4

Dec14

mArKet PerFormAnCeDEVELOPED MARKETS EMERGING MARKETS

equity Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013)

equity Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013)

Fixed Income Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013)

Fixed Income Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013)

Commodity Indices(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013)

Dollar Index Spot(Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013)


USA 15.8%

AC World 8.2%

em 1.4%Japan 4.2%

europe -0.3%

Sg govt -3.5%

Asia 10.1%

Sovereigns -1.9%g7 gBI -1.4%

High yield 4.9%

Inv grade -0.4%

energy -43.3%

gold 0.6%

gSCI Light Index -23.0%Agriculture -15.7%Industrial metals -12.1%

emerging mkts 9.4%

Corporate 5.1%

Sovereigns 11.0%

High yield -1.1%

Inv grade 9.6%

Asia eX Japan 9.5%

em 1.4%

em europe -26.0%

em Latin Am -14.3% Ind

exIn

dex

Ind

ex

Ind

exIn

dex

Ind

ex



eQUIty mArKet InDICAtorSDEVELOPED MARKETS EMERGING MARKETS

earnings revision by regions for Fy2 earnings revision by regions for Fy2

earnings revision by Sectors for Fy2 earnings revision by Sectors for Fy2


% Change% Change

% Change % Change

-40 -36 -32 -28 -24 -20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4

IT

Cons Discr

Health Care

Financials

Utilities

Telecom

Industrials

Cons Staples

MSCI World

Materials

Energy

Revisions in previous 2 mthsRevisions last mth

-16 -12 -8 -4 0 4

JAPAN

WORLD

EUROPE

US

AUSTRALIA

CANADA


-20 -16 -12 -8 -4 0

AC ASIA EX JAPAN

CHINA

INDIA

EMERGING MARKETS

LATIN AMERICA

BRAZIL

EMEA

RUSSIA


-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

IT

Health Care

Utilities

Cons Staples

Financials

Cons Discr

Industrials

MSCI Emerging Markets

Telecom

Materials

Energy


*Mean and SD are based on data from 1999.



Developed markets earnings yield ratio* emerging markets earnings yield ratio*

P/Bv vs roe by region P/e vs growth by region


Consumer Staples

Healthcare

Utilities Telecom Svcs

Materials Industrials

Energy IT

AC World

Financials

10.0x

11.0x

12.0x

13.0x

14.0x

15.0x

16.0x

17.0x

18.0x

19.0x

0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32%

PE

R (F

Y2)

EPS CAGR FY1-3 (%)

Consumer Discr

P/Bv vs roe by Sector P/e vs growth by Sector

Feb-15, 3x

Feb-15, 2.1xmean +1SD, 3.3x

mean +1SD, 2.2x

mean, 2.1x

mean, 1.7x

mean -1SD, 0.9x

mean -1SD, 1.1x

VALUATION

AC World

World

US

Europe

Japan

Australia Canada

Asia Ex Japan

Latin America

EMEA 1.0x

1.5x

2.0x

2.5x

9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16%

P/B

V -

FY

1 (X

)

ROE - 2yr Forward Avg. (%)

AC World

World

US

Europe Japan

Australia Canada

Asia Ex Japan

Latin America

EMEA 9x

10x

11x

12x

13x

14x

15x

16x

4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%

PE

R F

Y2

(X)

EPS CAGR FY1-3 (%)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Consumer Discr

Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Industrials

IT

Materials

Telecom Svcs

Utilities

AC World

0.8x

1.2x

1.6x

2.0x

2.4x

2.8x

3.2x

3.6x

4.0x

7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21%

P/B

V -

FY

1 (X

)

ROE - 2yr Forward Avg. (%)

HealthcareHealthcare



0

1

2

3

4

Dec-1

2

Jun-

13

Dec-1

1

Jun-

12

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

42

4

6

8

10

12

14

Dec-1

2

Jun-

13

Dec-1

1

Jun-

12

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

4

200

250

300

350

400

450

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

Dec-1

2

Jun-

13

Dec-1

1

Jun-

12

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

4200

250

300

350

400

450

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Dec-1

2

Jun-

13

Dec-1

1

Jun-

12

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

US

Austra

lia

Eurozo

ne

Franc

e

Switzer

land

Germ

any

Japan

-18

-13

-8

-3

2

7

12

17

South

Africa

Thaila

nd

Mex

ico

Mala

ysia

China

India

South

Korea

Philip

pines

Taiw

an

Indone

siaBra

zil

Russia

FIXeD InCome mArKet InDICAtorS

Developed markets 10-year government yield (%) emerging markets 10-year govenment yield (%)

Developed markets real government yield (%) emerging markets real government yield (%)

emerging markets (USD) yield and Credit Spread Asia (USD) yield and Credit Spread


JACI Spread (bps) - RHSJACI Yield (%)

10-Year Govt Bond Yield Real Govt Bond YieldCPI

JPMorgan EMBI Yield (%) JPMorgan EMBI Spread (bps) - RHS

ChinaBrazil Russia IndiaUS Euro Japan UK

10-Year Govt Bond Yield CPI Real Govt Bond Yield



emerging markets (Local Currency) Bond yield Asia (Local Currency) Bond yield

Dollar Index Spot (Rebased 100 on 31 December 2013) g-10 FX against US Dollar

emerging markets FX against US Dollar Asia FX against US Dollar


-7.7

-7.5

-7.3

-6.6

-4.4

-3.0

-2.5

-0.9

0.0

4.3

-9 -5 -1 3

Danish Krone

Euro

Canadian Dollar

Swedish Krona

Australian Dollar

New Zealand Dollar

Norwegian Dollar

British Pound

Japanese Yen

Swiss Franc

-7.2

-6.8

-5.7

-4.9

-4.4

-3.4

-1.3

-1.2

-8 -4 0

Brazilian Real

Turkish Lira

Russian Ruble

Colombian Peso

Polish Zloty

Hungarian Forint

Mexican Peso

South African Rand

-4.6-3.2

-2.7-1.0-0.7

0.00.0

0.51.61.7

2.5

-6 -4 -2 0 2

Indonesian RupiahMalaysian RinggitSingapore DollarChinese RenminbiSouth Korean WonHong Kong DollarJapanese YenTaiwanese DollarPhilippines PesoThai BahtIndian Rupee

JPMorgan GBI-EM Bond Yield (%) HSBC Asian Local Bond Yield (%)

5

6

6

7

7

8

Dec-1

2

Jun-

13

Dec-1

1

Jun-

12

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

4

98

103

108

113

118

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

4

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Dec-1

2

Jun-

13

Dec-1

1

Jun-

12

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

4

CURRENCIES

Ind

ex

% change versus USD from 31 Dec 14 to 28 Feb 15

% change versus USD from 31 Dec 14 to 28 Feb 15 % change versus USD from 31 Dec 14 to 28 Feb 15



10

15

20

25

30

35

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

Dec-1

2

Jun-

13

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

4

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

US

D p

er t

onn

es

To

nnes

(Tho

usan

ds)

Dec-1

2

Jun-

13

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

4

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

US

D p

er t

onn

es

To

nnes

(Mill

ions

)

Dec-1

2

Jun-

13

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

450

100

150

0

40

80

120

US

D p

er t

onn

es

To

nnes

(Mill

ions

)

Dec-1

2

Jun-

13

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

4

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

300

500

700

900

Dec-1

2

Jun-

13

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

450

60

70

80

90

100

110

0

2

4

6

8

10

Mill

ions

Bar

rels

/Day

Dec-1

2

Jun-

13

Dec-1

3

Jun-

14

Dec-1

4

CommoDIty mArKet InDICAtorS

Brent Crude oil Price and Production Agriculture Price (USD)

Precious metal Price (USD) Copper Price (USD)


Bloomberg OPEC Crude Oil Production Output/Saudia ArabiaDOE EIA US Crude Oil ProductionBrent Crude Oil (USD) - RHS

Corn Wheat Soyabeans - RHS

Gold Silver - RHS LME Copper Inventories LME Copper Spot - RHS

LME Aluminium Inventories LME Aluminium Spot - RHS

China Iron Ore Ports InventoryAustralia CIF Prices - RHS

Aluminum Price (USD) Iron ore Price (USD)

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APPenDIX eConomIC InDICAtorS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES … · 20 QUARTERLY INVESMENT SRATEGY Second Quarter 2015 Please refer to the last page for the important notice & disclaimer. 87