65
Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    3

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report

July 2017

Page 2: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central
Page 3: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 1

Table of Contents Page 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 2 2 Overview of the COTA – NextGen 2050 STOPS Model ........................................ 5 3 Ridership Estimates ............................................................................................... 9 Appendix I.1 Project Sheets and Corridor Results ................................................... 15

Table of Figures Page Figure 1 Proposed NextGen High Capacity Transit Network ..................................... 4 Table 1 Visibility Factors by High Capacity Transit Type .......................................... 6 Figure 2 STOPS Modeling Extent and Districts for NextGen 2050 Forecasting ......... 7 Table 2 Linked Trip Targets ..................................................................................... 8 Table 3 Boardings by Route Comparison .............................................................. 10 Table 4 Boardings by Route Comparison Continued ............................................. 11 Table 5 Trips by Market Segmentation and Trip Purpose Comparison .................. 11 Table 6 Trips by Access/Egress Mode and Trip Purpose Comparison ................... 12 Table 7 2015 and 2040 Boardings Comparisons by Alternative ............................. 13 Table 8 2015 and 2040 Linked Trips Comparisons and VMT Savings ................... 14

Page 4: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2

1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central Ohio Transit Authority (COTA) completed their Next Generation Plan (NextGen), which plans for central Ohio’s future needs. This study will help guide central Ohio’s transit development through 2050. NextGen ties closely into the study efforts made by the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission (MORPC) and their insight 2050 study which lays out a multimodal strategy for regional transportation investments. As such, the NextGen Plan encompasses all of the central Ohio region.

Project Background In October 2013, COTA initiated efforts to review and evaluate their current bus network, resulting in the Transit System Redesign (TSR). The TSR network focused on high ridership routes, allowing the COTA bus system to carry more people using the same resources. Additionally, the new network increased the number of routes at a 15-minute headway throughout the day. The increased service is expected to draw additional transit riders to the system. In May 2017, COTA implemented the TSR.

The current study, NextGen, builds on the new market potential of the TSR and identifies services that could be expanded or enhanced within the study area. From January 2015 to June 2017, COTA collaborated with multiple partners, including but not limited to, MORPC, Connect Columbus, Smart Columbus, Jobs Expansion and Transportation (JET) Taskforce, Imagine Westerville Community Plan Element, Dublin Mobility Study, Grove City 2050 Initiative, and the surrounding community to create the NextGen Vision.

This effort was a three-phase approach that defined the community values and identified needs and opportunities, gathered public input in the initial transit investment options, and refined the community preferences. Ultimately, one of the transit outcomes of NextGen was the identification of Service Improvement Strategies. These strategies included the development of High Capacity Transit (HCT) services. The HCT corridors evaluated with the study were selected and refined using both technical information and community input. The initial thirteen corridors were selected during the second phase of the study. After evaluation and additional public/stakeholder input, three additional corridors were evaluated. The initial corridors included three Light Rapid Transit (LRT) alternatives, one commuter rail alternative, one streetcar alternative, and eight Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) alternatives. One of the additional corridors was a new BRT. The other two alternatives were combinations of the previously identified HCT corridors. Additional information regarding the entire study process can be found in the NextGen – It’s Your Move.

This document represents the ridership estimates prepared using the Federal Transit Administration’s (FTA’s) Simplified-Trips-on-Project Software (STOPS) version 2.0. As such, ridership estimates were prepared for the following corridors:

Initial alternatives

Page 5: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 3

Cleveland (CMAX Upgrade) (BRT) 5th (Grandview – CMH) (BRT) E. Broad (BRT) E. Main (BRT) E. Livingston (BRT) N. High (BRT/LRT) 3rd/Railway (Downtown – Polaris) (LRT) James/Stelzer (Eastland – Easton) (BRT) Whittier/Alum Creek (BRT) W Broad (BRT) Franklinton – Columbus State (Streetcar) E. 5th/Stelzer (Downtown – CMH – Easton) (LRT) Newark Rail (Commuter Rail)

Additional alternatives

Northwest (Downtown – Dublin) (BRT) Combined alternative #1 – E. Main (BRT), N. High (BRT), and W. Broad (BRT) Combined alternative #2 – W. Broad (BRT), N. High (LRT), Cleveland (BRT), E.

Livingston (BRT), and E. Broad (BRT)

A map of the potential High Capacity Transit Corridors is shown in Figure 1.

Note: The NextGen process has not finalized the mode for any of the corridors. Tentative modes were selected for the sole purpose of estimating costs and ridership. Final alignment, stop locations, and mode selection would need to occur as part of a Project Development process.

Page 6: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 4

Figure 1 Proposed NextGen High Capacity Transit Network

Page 7: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 5

2 OVERVIEW OF THE COTA – NEXTGEN 2050 STOPS MODEL

The STOPS modeling process is comprised of a series of programs designed to estimate transit project ridership using a streamlined set of procedures that are generally less time-consuming than applying a regional travel demand forecasting model. STOPS is a limited application of the traditional “4-step” process and is similar in structure to regional models and includes many of the same computations of transit level-of-service and market share found in model sets maintained by Metropolitan Planning Organizations. The following sections provide a general overview of the underlying processes and identify key inputs used to estimate ridership with STOPS.

STOPS Model Specifications and Parameters This STOPS application defines the “current year” as 2015 and the horizon year as 2040. 2006-2010 5-year average American Community Survey (ACS) data was used as the basis for estimating travel demand from journey-to-work (JTW) data contained in it. This JTW data is “grown” within STOPS to represent current and future conditions based on the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) population and employment forecasts.

For model calibration, the modeling team obtained the most recent available ridership information such as regional transit boardings and station level boardings from COTA. Rider characteristics data was obtained from the 2013 COTA on-board survey. The corresponding General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) files used to represent existing transit service in the region were also obtained from COTA. For the no build and build scenarios, these files were modified as per the operating plan requirements of the alternatives. The GTFS files were also updated to include all park-and-ride lots in the region.

The Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) Calibration Approach was set to “02-Prod and Attraction Dist” for all alternatives. This approach calibrates to the production district as well as the attraction district transit constants from the CTPP transit shares. For the Commuter Rail alternative, the Group Calibration Approach was set to “09-Full Group Calibration” to control the station calibration process. For the other alternatives, the Group calibration was set to 00. The visibility factor used for each alternative was based on the type of HCT in the alternative. These are listed in Table 1.

Page 8: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 6

In general, the access mode penalties in the STOPSStations GIS files were set to 20 minutes for all access modes. There were two exceptions. The TSR Route 121 – CBUS is a fare free route in downtown Columbus. To represent no fare, the access mode penalties were set to 0 for all Route 121 stop locations. Additionally, the Park and Ride penalty was set to 10 minutes at all Park and Ride locations.

Table 1 Visibility Factors by High Capacity Transit Type High Capacity Transit Alternative Type STOPS Visibility

Factor Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Combined Alternative #1 0.5 Streetcar 0.5 LRT – N. High

E. 5th/Stelzer Combined Alternative #2

0.6

LRT – 3rd/Railway 0.8 Commuter Rail 1.0

Geographic Extent of the Modeling Area The modeling area for this model includes all of Franklin and Licking Counties as well as parts of Delaware County in the central Ohio region. The model area covers both the existing and future transit systems of the NextGen 2050 Plan. Figure 2 shows the geographic extent of the model area. The figure also depicts the districts used during the modeling effort.

Page 9: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 7

Figure 2 STOPS Modeling Extent and Districts for NextGen 2050 Forecasting

Page 10: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 8

Key Inputs Data for use in STOPS was gathered from the Central Ohio Transit Authority (COTA) and from the regional Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO). Key inputs to STOPS were developed from the following sources:

Census flows from the American Community Survey (ACS), 2006-2010 5-Year Average. GTFS network information for COTA. Ridership data from COTA, including station-level boardings and stop-level Automated

Passenger Counter (APC) information. The Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Council’s (MORPC’s) Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level

population and employment for 2000, 2015 and 2040. Auto travel times and distances from MORPC’s travel demand model. COTA’s 2012 Transit On-Board Survey.

In order to perform detailed calibration, STOPS can input boarding data at a stop level. Since this data was available, they were included in the model during the calibration process.

The unlinked trip targets used for calibration and validity testing were based on 2015 statistics from the National Transit Database (NTD). For this forecasting effort, the total number of unlinked trips was 61,353.

STOPS also allows the user to update the ratio of trips by trip purpose to the Journey-to-Work flows. The default STOPS ratios were used.

2013 COTA On-Board Survey Data Reconciliation The 2013 survey data was re-expanded by route to represent the 2015 APC data by route. 2015 linked trips by trip purpose and market segment were used as part of the STOPS setup. Table 2 summarizes the linked trip targets.

Table 2 Linked Trip Targets

Market Segment Trip Purpose Total

HBW HBO NHB 0-car Household 13,432 14,060 3,618 31,110 1-car Household 5,570 4,456 1,113 11,139 2+ car Household 3,081 2,752 815 6,648 Total 22,083 21,268 5,546 48,897

A comparison of the unlinked trips to the linked trips yielded an observed overall transfer rate of 25 percent for the region.

Page 11: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 9

3 RIDERSHIP ESTIMATES A precursor to developing any ridership forecast is a determination of the model’s ability to replicate ridership for the existing year. Although the model is well calibrated, forecasts presented in this section have not been subjected to a rigorous process of calibration and validity testing. Nonetheless, results do fit the intended purpose and offer reasonable order-of-magnitude comparisons. The following subsections highlight results of the calibration effort and forecast results for each of the alternatives.

Unless otherwise stated, all ridership numbers presented in this section represent an average weekday estimate.

Model Calibration At a system-wide level, the model performed reasonably well in replicating existing conditions in terms of the following:

Boardings by route, Transfer rates, Trips by trip purpose, Market segmentation, and Access mode.

Table 3 to Table 6 summarize the calibration comparisons used for this forecasting effort. Overall, Table 3 and Table 4 indicate that the STOPS estimated boardings were within roughly 2,000 boardings and was 3% lower than the 2015 APC data. Routes with more than 2,000 APC boardings were matched within 12% except for Route 10 – Broad Street and Route 7 – Neil-OSU/Whittier. For Routes 21, 48, 54, and 80, STOPS did not forecast any boardings. Route 21, as a night service, falls outside of the average weekday parameters that STOPS uses for calculation purposes. The other routes offer modest service, making it difficult for STOPS to forecast their boardings. As this planning effort involved the regional transit system, the overall estimated boardings within 3% of the observed was acceptable.

Table 5 summarizes the comparison of observed to estimated data by market segment and trip purpose. Again, the model estimate is slightly lower than the observed data provided by the 2012 re-expanded survey. In this case, the estimation is 6% low or 3,041 linked trips. Over half of these trips are Home-Based Work (HBW) linked trips.

Table 6 contains a comparison of observed to estimated data by access mode and trip purpose. The overwhelming majority of observed trips (94%) access COTA’s transit system by walking. The STOPS model underestimated these trips by 5,388 or 12%. Kiss and Ride and Park and Ride trips are both overestimated, 2,032 and 316 respectively.

Page 12: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 10

Table 3 Boardings by Route Comparison

ExistingDelta

(Existing - APC) Percent Delta

Rt 1 - Cleveland/Livingston 7,844 8,090 246 3%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,763 9,474 (289) -3%Rt 3 - W Mound/Northwest Blvd 1,693 1,421 (272) -16%Rt 4 - Indianola/Parsons 2,438 2,722 284 12%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave 1,489 2,061 572 38%Rt 6 - Sullivant/Mt Vernon 2,535 2,309 (226) -9%Rt 7 - Neil-Osu/Whittier 2,276 1,405 (871) -38%Rt 8 - Hamilton Ave/Frebis 3,877 3,686 (191) -5%Rt 9 - Leonard/Brentnell 1,043 682 (361) -35%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 7,372 5,743 (1,629) -22%Rt 11 - Oak-Bryden/St Clair 1,777 1,949 172 10%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 670 486 (184) -27%Rt 13 - US 33/Watermark 8 37 29 363%Rt 14 - Harmon/Greenlawn 10 42 32 320%Rt 15 - Grove City 1,215 1,164 (51) -4%Rt 16 - E Long/S High 2,372 2,224 (148) -6%Rt 18 - Kenny/OSU 2,262 2,294 32 1%Rt 19 - Arlington/Grandview 107 123 16 15%Rt 21 - Night Owl 358 - (358) -100%Rt 27 - Brooksedge 29 168 139 479%Rt 29 - Polaris 32 59 27 84%Rt 30 - Smoky Row 95 36 (59) -62%Rt 31 - Worthington 160 347 187 117%Rt 32 - Crosswoods 72 152 80 111%Rt 33 - North Central 30 56 26 87%Rt 34 - Karl 73 89 16 22%Rt 35 - Tamarack 40 38 (2) -5%Rt 36 - Annehurst 138 138 - 0%Rt 37 - Westerville 89 56 (33) -37%Rt 38 - Easton 51 50 (1) -2%Rt 39 - New Albany 57 31 (26) -46%Rt 40 - New Albany Business 113 142 29 26%Rt 41 - Gahanna 47 18 (29) -62%Rt 43 - E Broad 32 91 59 184%Rt 44 - North Reynoldsburg 42 35 (7) -17%Rt 45 - Reynoldsburg 53 128 75 142%Rt 46 - Eastland 52 170 118 227%Rt 47 - Brice 201 269 68 34%Rt 48 - Eastgreen 4 - (4) -100%Rt 49 - Southeast 43 55 12 28%Rt 52 - OSU/Airport-Limited Sv 107 30 (77) -72%Rt 53 - Lincoln Village 52 90 38 73%Rt 54 - London-Groveport 29 - (29) -100%Rt 55 - Gender 77 15 (62) -81%Rt 56 - Tuttle 32 79 47 147%Rt 57 - Hilliard 88 138 50 57%Rt 58 - Dublin 106 147 41 39%Rt 59 - Dublin/Metro 13 125 112 862%Rt 61 - Kenny 123 123 - 0%Rt 64 - Grove City 68 161 93 137%

2015 STOPS Boardings2015 APC Boardings by

Route*Existing Route Name

Page 13: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 11

Table 4 Boardings by Route Comparison Continued

Table 5 Trips by Market Segmentation and Trip Purpose Comparison Market

Segment HBW HBO NHB Total

Survey Model Survey Model Survey Model Survey Model Delta 0-car HH 13,432 12,391 14,060 13,109 3,618 3,473 31,110 28,973 (2,137) 1-car HH 5,570 5,334 4,456 4,333 1,113 1,074 11,139 10,741 (398) 2+ car HH 3,081 2,737 2,752 2,618 815 787 6,648 6,142 (506) Total 22,083 20,462 21,268 20,060 5,546 5,334 48,897 45,856 (3,041)

ExistingDelta

(Existing - APC) Percent Delta

Rt 65 - Southpark 8 58 50 625%Rt 67 - East Hilliard 26 16 (10) -38%Rt 68 - Hilliard/Westbelt 8 17 9 113%Rt 70 - CBUS 1,958 1,675 (283) -14%Rt 80 - OSU/Lennox 26 - (26) -100%Rt 81 - Hudson/Ohio 2,036 2,238 202 10%Rt 82 - Grandview/OSU 316 201 (115) -36%Rt 83 - Oakland/Weber 289 808 519 180%Rt 84 - Hilliard/Arlington/OSU 728 581 (147) -20%Rt 87 - Cassady 391 390 (1) 0%Rt 89 - Hamilton Rd 1,626 1,082 (544) -33%Rt 92 - James/Stelzer 2,018 2,142 124 6%Rt 95 - Morse/Henderson 1,941 1,666 (275) -14%Rt 96 - 5th Ave 418 877 459 110%Rt 118 - Sawmill 143 95 (48) -34%Subtotal for All Routes in the APC Data 63,189 60,794 (2,395) -4%

Rt 98 - Columbus Zoo - 40 40 Rt 102 - 2L Crosswoods/Polaris Pkw - 110 110 Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect - 233 233

Subtotal for Routes Not in APC Data - 383 383 System Total 63,189 61,177 (2,012) -3%

*Source: COTA; (Sept-Dec2015APCStopSummary.xlsx)

Existing Route Name2015 APC

Boardings by Route*

2015 STOPS Boardings

Page 14: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 12

Table 6 Trips by Access/Egress Mode and Trip Purpose Comparison Access Mode

HBW HBO NHB Total Survey Model Survey Model Survey Model Survey Model Delta

Walk 20,300 17,721 20,158 17,907 5,284 4,726 45,744 40,352 (5,388)

Kiss and Ride 974 1,668 853 1,884 230 537 2,057 4,089 2,032

Park and Ride 809 1,073 257 270 32 71 1,098 1,414 1,414

Total 22,083 20,462 21,268 20,061 5,546 5,334 48,897 45,857 (3,040)

Forecast Results As mentioned in the introduction, COTA implemented their new service, the Transit System Redesign (TSR), in May 2017. During the NextGen 2050 planning effort, the TSR was not in place, nor was there available ridership information regarding the system. Yet the goal of this plan is to build upon the new market potential provided by the TSR. For this reason, the TSR system was considered the No Build condition for each of the alternatives and used to compare to the Build conditions. Table 7 and Table 8 summarize boardings, linked trips, and incremental Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) savings for all the alternatives. The STOPS model outputs the reduction of Person Miles Traveled (PMT). To calculate VMT a 1.2 person per vehicle auto occupancy rate was assumed.

Appendix I.1 contains individual route Project Sheets as well as the system results. Several of the corridors were modified slightly from the Project Sheets based on changes during the project process. These changes are contained in the system results pages. Appendix I.2 contains all electronic files used for the STOPS forecasting.

In Table 7, the TSR No Build underlying service was calculated using the sum of boardings lost from each of the underlying routes in the Build alternative. In Appendix I.1, these routes are shown shaded in blue and are labeled as “Routes Impacted by the Corridor”. The Build alternative boardings include any proposed feeder routes that are part of the alternative.

Looking at the results from the individual corridors within the combined alternatives, one might assume that the total boardings should be at least the sum of the individual corridors. This is not the case. There are benefits, or boardings increases, that are seen on auxiliary routes in the individual corridors that do not occur when combined with other alternatives. For example, Combined Alternative #2 includes the W Broad Street, Downtown to Worthington via High Street (LRT), CMAX Upgrade, E Livingston Avenue, and E Broad Street alternatives. The W Broad Street, E Main Street, Downtown to Worthington, and E Livingston Avenue all display an increase in boardings on Route 101 – CMAX when regarded at an individual corridor level. As part of the combined alternative, Route 101 is eliminated in favor of the CMAX Upgrade. Therefore, the boardings increases on Route 101 presented in the other alternatives can no longer occur.

Page 15: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 13

Table 7 2015 and 2040 Boardings Comparisons by Alternative

Alternative 2015 Corridor Boardings 2040 Corridor Boardings

TSR (No Build) Build Difference TSR (No

Build) Build Difference

CMAX Upgrade 5,319 5,920 601 6,261 8,269 2,008

Grandview to the airport 568 2,165 1,597 769 2,972 2,203

E Broad Street 3,381 6,135 2,754 4,002 7,631 3,629

E Main Street 4,404 9,185 4,781 5,259 12,247 6,988

E Livingston Avenue 3,178 5,751 2,573 3,547 7,560 4,013

Downtown-Worthington via High St (BRT/LRT)

6,228/ 6,078

9,942/ 11,238

3,714/ 5,160

6,794/ 6,538

12,104/ 13,578

5,310/ 7,040

Downtown-Polaris via North Corridor 1,306 6,877 5,571 1,479 9,096 7,617

Eastland Mall to Easton Mall 2,491 3,851 1,360 2,621 4,581 1,960

Alum Creek to Whittier 1,951 4,397 2,446 2,339 5,856 3,517

W Broad Street 2,569 4,648 2,079 3,077 5,937 2,860

Franklinton to Columbus State - 3,876 3,876 - 6,291 6,291

Downtown to the airport to Easton 755 2,250 1,495 926 3,090 2,164

Newark Rail - 1,436 1,436 - 2,136 2,136

Downtown to Dublin - 3,873 3,873 - 4,379 4,379

Combined Alternative #1 14,784 23,491 8,707 16,963 29,380 12,417

Combined Alternative #2 16,907 34,572 17,665 19,184 43,431 24,247

Page 16: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 14

Table 8 2015 and 2040 Linked Trips Comparisons and VMT Savings

Alternative Linked Trips Reduction in VMT

2015 2040 Increase 2015 2040 CMAX Upgrade 1,153 2,019 866 (6,008) (11,975) Grandview to the airport 760 1,092 332 (3,399) (5,216) E Broad Street 1,359 1,971 612 (6,287) (9,648) E Main Street 2,091 3,218 1,127 (9,536) (16,218) E Livingston Avenue 1,473 2,167 694 (6,799) (11,221) Downtown-Worthington via High St (BRT/LRT)

1,169/ 2,145

1,787/ 2,940

618/ 795

(4,948)/ (10,671)

(9,641)/ (16,603

Downtown-Polaris via North Corridor 3,325 4,601 1,276 (17,639) (26,542) Eastland Mall to Easton Mall 879 1,229 350 (3,756) (5,986) Alum Creek to Whittier 941 1,346 405 (5,480) (8,899) W Broad Street 1,208 1,701 493 (6,278) (9,548) Franklinton to Columbus State 1,132 1,975 843 (3,800) (6,828) Downtown to the airport to Easton 603 933 330 (3,068) (4,961) Newark Rail 1,080 1,647 567 (18,412) (28,183) Downtown to Dublin 790 893 103 (5,853) (6,679) Combined Alternative #1 4,432 6,405 1,973 (21,733) (33,617) Combined Alternative #2 8,865 12,187 3,322 (44,847) (66,056)

Page 17: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 15

Appendix I.1 Project Sheets and Corridor Results Data for each of the alternatives appear in the following order:

Cleveland (CMAX Upgrade) (BRT) 5th (Grandview – CMH) (BRT) E. Broad (BRT) E. Main (BRT) E. Livingston (BRT) N. High (BRT/LRT) 3rd/Railway (Downtown – Polaris) (LRT) James/Stelzer (Eastland – Easton) (BRT) Whittier/Alum Creek (BRT) W Broad (BRT) Franklinton – Columbus State (Streetcar) E. 5th/Stelzer (Downtown – CMH – Easton) (LRT) Newark Rail (Commuter Rail) Northwest (Downtown – Dublin) (BRT) Combined alternative #1 – E. Main (BRT), N. High (BRT), and W. Broad (BRT) Combined alternative #2 – W. Broad (BRT), N. High (LRT), Cleveland (BRT), E.

Livingston (BRT), and E. Broad (BRT)

Page 18: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 16

Cleveland (CMAX Upgrade) – Project Sheet Sycamore St./High St. to Polaris Pkwy./Gemini Pl.

Modeling Assumptions

Changes to existing Service

Delete existing TSR CMAX service. Delete TSR Route 6 from High/Broad to Cleveland/5th, and from Morse/Cleveland to Cleveland/SR-161. Route 6 will operate 30 minute shuttle service on Cleveland between 5th Ave and Morse Rd only.

Proposed Mode BRT

Assumed Speed 20.1 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing (segment length)

Segment 1* 0.3 mile (3.3 miles)

Segment 2 1 mile (6 miles)

Segment 3* 0.8 mile (5.9 miles)

Segment 4 0.5 mile (2.7 miles)

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours N of SR 161 7.5 minutes

S of SR 161 15 minutes

Off-Peak Hours

N of SR 161 10 minutes

S of SR 161 20 minutes

N. of SR-161 All – Day 7.5 – 10 minutes

Park and Ride Locations

Polaris & Gemini (new)

Northern Lights*** (new)

Northland Transit Center*** (new)

* Existing planned CMAX stops used in segments where planned route and proposed upgrade overlap **Frequency from existing CMAX Plans *** Park and Ride locations from existing CMAX Plans

CMAX Upgrade Route Alignment

Page 19: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 17

DRAFT 10/21/2016

TSR (No Build)

CMAX Upgrade

BuildDelta Percent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

CMAX Upgrade

BuildDelta Percent

Delta

CMAX Upgrade - 5,920 5,920 - 8,269 8,269 Rt 101 - CMAX 5,319 - (5,319) -100% 6,261 - (6,261) -100%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,925 6,325 1,400 28% 6,242 7,838 1,596 26%Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,854 7,067 213 3% 7,788 8,079 291 4%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 9,727 377 4% 10,716 11,172 456 4%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,899 20 1% 2,176 2,216 40 2%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,840 (42) -1% 3,251 3,179 (72) -2%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 4,270 158 4% 4,776 4,970 194 4%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,821 (47) -3% 2,440 2,355 (85) -3%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,476 69 2% 3,879 3,952 73 2%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,358 237 11% 2,488 2,796 308 12%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 6,693 (9) 0% 7,942 7,946 4 0%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 506 (4) -1% 693 703 10 1%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 682 33 5% 951 989 38 4%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 141 (22) -13% 189 156 (33) -17%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 325 (201) -38% 563 366 (197) -35%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,892 (22) -1% 2,470 2,476 6 0%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,488 (3) 0% 2,621 2,612 (9) 0%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,881 45 2% 1,903 1,947 44 2%Rt 25 - Brice 422 430 8 2% 424 431 7 2%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 1,639 (352) -18% 2,260 1,828 (432) -19%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,042 4 0% 1,106 1,137 31 3%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 642 6 1% 687 698 11 2%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,805 15 1% 1,970 2,013 43 2%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 332 358 26 8% 351 383 32 9%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 40 (21) -34% 82 42 (40) -49%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 39 11 39% 30 57 27 90%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 115 (38) -25% 169 120 (49) -29%Rt 44 - Easton 13 21 8 62% 13 20 7 54%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 44 9 26% 47 55 8 17%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 17 - 0% 18 18 - 0%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 314 9 3% 406 431 25 6%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 4 - 0% 5 5 - 0%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 390 (16) -4% 507 486 (21) -4%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 650 163 33% 541 715 174 32%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 343 17 5% 339 359 20 6%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 73 (2) -3% 93 89 (4) -4%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 60 1 2% 75 71 (4) -5%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,787 1,733 (54) -3% 2,003 1,915 (88) -4%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 2,674 316 13% 2,870 3,352 482 17%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 33 (1) -3% 35 34 (1) -3%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 210 38 22% 211 252 41 19%

System Total 70,041 72,991 2,950 4% 81,595 86,536 4,941 6%

Routes Impacted

by Corridor

CMAX Upgrade BRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Page 20: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 18

TSR (No Build)

CMAX Upgrade

BuildDelta Percent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

CMAX Upgrade

BuildDelta Percent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (6,008) (11,975) Linked Trips 49,325 50,478 1,153 2.3% 57,868 59,887 2,019 3.5%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,697 31,085 388 1.3% 35,924 36,572 648 1.8%Speed (mph) 17.5 20.1 2.6 15%*Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

S of SR161 7.5N of SR161 15S of SR161 10N of SR161 20

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)Peak

Off-Peak

Additional System Metrics2015 2040

Page 21: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 19

5th (Grandview – CMH) – Project Sheet Grandview Ave./1st Ave. to Stelzer Rd./17th Ave.

Modeling Assumptions Proposed Mode BRT

Assumed Speed 15 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing (segment length)

Segment 1 0.33 mile (2.9 miles)

Segment 2 0.5 mile (5.3 miles)

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 10 minutes

Off-Peak Hours 15 minutes

Park and Ride Locations 17th & Stelzer (new)

5th Avenue Grandview – CMH Corridor Route Alignment

Page 22: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 20

DRAFT 10/21/2016

TSR (No Build)

5th Ave Grandview

to CMH Build

Delta Percent Delta

TSR (No Build)

5th Ave Grandview

to CMH Build

Delta Percent Delta

5th Ave Grandview to CMH BRT Alt. - 2,165 2,165 - 2,972 2,972 Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 3,961 (151) -4% 4,776 4,586 (190) -4%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,648 (220) -12% 2,440 2,186 (254) -10%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,045 (76) -4% 2,488 2,395 (93) -4%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,793 (121) -6% 2,470 2,238 (232) -9%Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,855 6,963 108 2% 7,788 7,975 187 2%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 9,534 184 2% 10,716 10,975 259 2%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,843 (36) -2% 2,176 2,124 (52) -2%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,929 47 2% 3,251 3,316 65 2%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 5,014 93 2% 6,238 6,422 184 3%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,375 (32) -1% 3,879 3,858 (21) -1%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 6,632 (70) -1% 7,942 7,852 (90) -1%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 508 (2) 0% 693 681 (12) -2%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 637 (12) -2% 951 932 (19) -2%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 161 (2) -1% 189 188 (1) -1%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 517 (9) -2% 563 552 (11) -2%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,576 85 3% 2,621 2,733 112 4%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,828 (8) 0% 1,903 1,891 (12) -1%Rt 25 - Brice 422 422 - 0% 424 423 (1) 0%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 1,869 (122) -6% 2,260 2,114 (146) -6%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,015 (23) -2% 1,106 1,078 (28) -3%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 643 7 1% 687 697 10 1%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,784 (6) 0% 1,970 1,960 (10) -1%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 338 4 1% 353 359 6 2%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 61 - 0% 82 81 (1) -1%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 28 - 0% 30 30 - 0%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 153 - 0% 169 169 - 0%Rt 44 - Easton 13 12 (1) -8% 13 11 (2) -15%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 34 (1) -3% 47 45 (2) -4%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 14 (3) -18% 18 15 (3) -17%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 308 3 1% 406 411 5 1%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 4 - 0% 5 5 - 0%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 411 5 1% 507 513 6 1%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 482 (5) -1% 541 535 (6) -1%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 317 (9) -3% 339 327 (12) -4%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 75 - 0% 93 93 - 0%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 59 - 0% 75 74 (1) -1%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,645 324 6% 6,263 6,714 451 7%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,786 1,846 60 3% 2,003 2,089 86 4%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 2,297 (61) -3% 2,870 2,784 (86) -3%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 21 (13) -38% 35 20 (15) -43%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 158 (14) -8% 211 195 (16) -8%

System Total 70,041 72,129 2,088 3% 81,595 84,622 3,027 4%

5th Ave Grandview to CMH BRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Routes Impacted

by Corridor

Page 23: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 21

TSR (No Build)

5th Ave Grandview

to CMH Build

Delta Percent Delta

TSR (No Build)

5th Ave Grandview

to CMH Build

Delta Percent Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (3,399) (5,216) Linked Trips 49,328 50,088 760 1.5% 57,872 58,964 1,092 1.9%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,699 30,994 295 1.0% 35,925 36,342 417 1.2%Speed (mph) 13.0 15.0 2.0 15%*Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 10Off-Peak 15

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

Additional System Metrics

2015 2040

Page 24: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 22

E. Broad – Project Sheet Broad St./High St. to Broad St./Lancaster Ave.

Modeling Assumptions

Changes to existing Service

Delete 2017 TSR Route 10 service on E. Broad. BRT will replace Route 10. Create small feeder route along Broad St from Lancaster Ave to Franklin County boundary, operating at 30 minute headways.

Proposed Mode BRT

Assumed Speed 17.1 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing (segment length)

Segment 1 0.33 mile (2.7 miles)

Segment 2 0.5 mile (2 miles)

Segment 3 0.33 mile (2.1 miles)

Segment 4 0.5 mile (3.2 miles)

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 10 minutes

Off-Peak Hours 12 minutes

Park and Ride Locations

Whitehall P&R (existing)

Lancaster & Broad (new) East Broad Corridor Route Alignment

Page 25: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 23

DRAFT 10/21/2016

TSR (No Build)

East Broad Build

Delta Percent Delta

TSR (No Build)

East Broad Build

Delta Percent Delta

East Broad BRT Alternative - 5,975 5,975 - 7,631 7,631 East Broad Feeder Route - 160 160 - 194 194 Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 3,321 (3,381) -50% 7,942 3,940 (4,002) -50%Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,855 6,962 107 2% 7,788 7,880 92 1%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 9,484 134 1% 10,716 10,837 121 1%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,866 (13) -1% 2,176 2,183 7 0%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,961 79 3% 3,251 3,346 95 3%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 4,181 69 2% 4,776 4,854 78 2%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 5,209 288 6% 6,238 6,641 403 6%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,823 (45) -2% 2,440 2,319 (121) -5%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,371 (36) -1% 3,879 3,853 (26) -1%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,152 31 1% 2,488 2,521 33 1%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 517 7 1% 693 712 19 3%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 683 34 5% 951 1,031 80 8%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 165 2 1% 189 193 4 2%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 521 (5) -1% 563 559 (4) -1%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,876 (38) -2% 2,470 2,422 (48) -2%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,610 119 5% 2,621 2,719 98 4%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,951 115 6% 1,903 2,037 134 7%Rt 25 - Brice 422 423 1 0% 424 432 8 2%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 1,975 (16) -1% 2,260 2,234 (26) -1%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,021 (17) -2% 1,106 1,083 (23) -2%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 636 - 0% 687 688 1 0%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,807 17 1% 1,970 1,979 9 0%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 335 1 0% 353 354 1 0%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 66 5 8% 82 88 6 7%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 29 1 4% 30 32 2 7%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 144 (9) -6% 169 162 (7) -4%Rt 44 - Easton 13 14 1 8% 13 13 - 0%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 33 (2) -6% 47 41 (6) -13%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 17 - 0% 18 18 - 0%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 310 5 2% 406 408 2 0%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 4 - 0% 5 4 (1) -20%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 415 9 2% 507 522 15 3%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 515 28 6% 541 574 33 6%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 335 9 3% 339 349 10 3%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 76 1 1% 93 93 - 0%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 57 (2) -3% 75 73 (2) -3%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,578 257 5% 6,263 6,688 425 7%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,786 1,778 (8) 0% 2,003 1,995 (8) 0%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 2,455 97 4% 2,870 3,027 157 5%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 29 (5) -15% 35 28 (7) -20%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 172 - 0% 211 208 (3) -1%

System Total 70,041 74,016 3,975 6% 81,595 86,969 5,374 7%

Routes Impacted

by Corridor

East Broad BRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Page 26: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 24

TSR (No Build)

East Broad Build

Delta Percent Delta

TSR (No Build)

East Broad Build

Delta Percent Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (6,287) (9,648) Linked Trips 49,328 50,687 1,359 2.8% 57,872 59,843 1,971 3.4%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,699 31,235 536 1.7% 35,926 36,733 807 2.2%Speed (mph) 14.9 17.1 2.2 15%*Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 10Off-Peak 12

Additional System Metrics2015 2040

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

Page 27: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 25

E. Main – Project Sheet Spring St./High St. to Main St./Lancaster Ave.

Modeling Assumptions

Changes to existing Service

Delete 2017 TSR Route 2 service on E. Main, and High Street south of Broad Street. BRT will replace Route 2 on E. Main, and High street south of Broad Street. Create small feeder route along Main St from Lancaster Ave to Franklin County boundary, operating at 30 minute headways.

Proposed Mode BRT

Assumed Speed 13.6 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing (segment length)

Segment 1 0.33 mile (3.5 miles)

Segment 2 0.5 mile (1.7 miles)

Segment 3 0.33 (2 miles)

Segment 4 0.5 mile (4 miles)

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 7.5 minutes

Off-Peak Hours 7.5 minutes

Park and Ride Locations Brice & Main (new)

East Main Corridor Route Alignment

Page 28: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 26

DRAFT 10/21/2016

TSR (No Build)

East Main Build

Delta Percent Delta

TSR (No Build)

East Main Build

Delta Percent Delta

East Main BRT Alternative - 9,136 9,136 - 12,189 12,189 East Main Feeder Route - 49 49 - 58 58 Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 4,946 (4,404) -47% 10,716 5,457 (5,259) -49%Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,855 6,688 (167) -2% 7,788 7,496 (292) -4%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,882 3 0% 2,176 2,198 22 1%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,881 (1) 0% 3,251 3,237 (14) 0%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 4,076 (36) -1% 4,776 4,737 (39) -1%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 4,869 (52) -1% 6,238 6,238 - 0%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,847 (21) -1% 2,440 2,395 (45) -2%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,393 (14) 0% 3,879 3,879 - 0%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,200 79 4% 2,488 2,585 97 4%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 7,087 385 6% 7,942 8,415 473 6%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 540 30 6% 693 724 31 4%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 630 (19) -3% 951 902 (49) -5%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 170 7 4% 189 196 7 4%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 479 (47) -9% 563 518 (45) -8%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 2,094 180 9% 2,470 2,696 226 9%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,450 (41) -2% 2,621 2,662 41 2%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,953 117 6% 1,903 2,067 164 9%Rt 25 - Brice 422 440 18 4% 424 444 20 5%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 2,019 28 1% 2,260 2,288 28 1%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,008 (30) -3% 1,106 1,075 (31) -3%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 619 (17) -3% 687 676 (11) -2%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,828 38 2% 1,970 2,029 59 3%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 336 2 1% 353 356 3 1%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 73 12 20% 82 110 28 34%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 28 - 0% 30 31 1 3%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 160 7 5% 169 178 9 5%Rt 44 - Easton 13 13 - 0% 13 13 - 0%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 45 10 29% 47 92 45 96%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 16 (1) -6% 18 18 - 0%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 249 (56) -18% 406 318 (88) -22%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 2 (2) -50% 5 3 (2) -40%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 416 10 2% 507 527 20 4%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 616 129 26% 541 702 161 30%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 384 58 18% 339 413 74 22%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 85 10 13% 93 111 18 19%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 61 2 3% 75 77 2 3%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,453 132 2% 6,263 6,486 223 4%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,786 1,666 (120) -7% 2,003 1,897 (106) -5%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 2,295 (63) -3% 2,870 2,757 (113) -4%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 29 (5) -15% 35 31 (4) -11%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 139 (33) -19% 211 164 (47) -22%

System Total 70,041 75,354 5,313 8% 81,595 89,449 7,854 10%

Routes Impacted

by Corridor

East Main BRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Page 29: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 27

TSR (No Build)

East Main Build

Delta Percent Delta

TSR (No Build)

East Main Build

Delta Percent Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (9,536) (16,218) Linked Trips 49,329 51,420 2,091 4.2% 57,872 61,090 3,218 5.6%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,698 31,300 602 2.0% 35,925 36,905 980 2.7%Speed (mph) 11.8 13.6 1.8 15%*Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 7.5Off-Peak 7.5

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

Additional System Metrics

2015 2040

Page 30: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 28

E. Livingston – Project Sheet Spring St./High St. to Livingston Ave./Brice Rd.

Modeling Assumptions

Changes to existing Service

Delete 2017 TSR Route 1 service on E. Livingston and High Street south of Broad Street. BRT will replace Route 1 on Livingston, and High Street south of Broad Street.

Proposed Mode BRT

Assumed Speed 14.1 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing (segment length)

Segment 1 0.33 mile (3.7 miles)

Segment 2 0.5 mile (1.7 miles)

Segment 3 0.33 mile (2 miles)

Segment 3 0.5 mile (2.5 miles)

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 8 minutes

Off-Peak Hours 12 minutes

Park and Ride Locations

Livingston & Barnett (existing)

Livingston & Reynoldsburg (existing)

East Livingston Corridor Route Alignment

Page 31: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 29

DRAFT 10/21/2016

TSR (No Build)

East Livingston

BuildDelta Percent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

East Livingston

BuildDelta Percent

Delta

East Livingston BRT Alternative - 5,751 5,751 - 7,560 7,560 Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,854 3,676 (3,178) -46% 7,788 4,241 (3,547) -46%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 9,640 290 3% 10,716 10,937 221 2%

Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,929 50 3% 2,176 2,255 79 4%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,951 69 2% 3,251 3,334 83 3%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 4,231 119 3% 4,776 4,861 85 2%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 5,011 90 2% 6,237 6,413 176 3%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,949 81 4% 2,440 2,532 92 4%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,508 101 3% 3,879 4,011 132 3%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,068 (53) -2% 2,488 2,420 (68) -3%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 6,766 64 1% 7,942 8,046 104 1%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 500 (10) -2% 693 682 (11) -2%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 655 6 1% 951 959 8 1%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 168 5 3% 189 194 5 3%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 527 1 0% 563 564 1 0%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,932 18 1% 2,470 2,499 29 1%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,532 41 2% 2,621 2,707 86 3%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 2,001 165 9% 1,903 2,123 220 12%Rt 25 - Brice 422 468 46 11% 424 479 55 13%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 1,976 (15) -1% 2,260 2,208 (52) -2%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,050 12 1% 1,106 1,132 26 2%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 722 86 14% 687 775 88 13%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,802 12 1% 1,970 1,990 20 1%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 329 (5) -1% 353 347 (6) -2%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 65 4 7% 82 88 6 7%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 28 - 0% 30 30 - 0%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 153 - 0% 169 167 (2) -1%Rt 44 - Easton 13 14 1 8% 13 14 1 8%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 38 3 9% 47 49 2 4%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 21 4 24% 18 22 4 22%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 260 (45) -15% 406 307 (99) -24%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 3 (1) -25% 5 4 (1) -20%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 439 33 8% 507 550 43 8%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 541 54 11% 541 610 69 13%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 381 55 17% 339 410 71 21%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 75 - 0% 93 91 (2) -2%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 65 6 10% 75 83 8 11%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,626 305 6% 6,263 6,673 410 7%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,787 1,910 123 7% 2,003 2,136 133 7%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 2,742 384 16% 2,870 3,399 529 18%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 29 (5) -15% 35 29 (6) -17%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 163 (9) -5% 211 200 (11) -5%

System Total 70,041 74,699 4,658 7% 81,594 88,135 6,541 8%

Routes Impacted

by Corridor

East Livingston BRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Page 32: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 30

TSR (No Build)

East Livingston

BuildDelta Percent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

East Livingston

BuildDelta Percent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (6,799) (11,221) Linked Trips 49,328 50,801 1,473 3.0% 57,872 60,039 2,167 3.7%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,698 31,205 507 1.7% 35,925 36,712 787 2.2%Speed (mph) 12.2 14.1 1.8 15%*Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 8Off-Peak 12

Additional System Metrics2015 2040

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

Page 33: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 31

3rd/Railway (Downtown – Polaris) – Project Sheet Sycamore St./High St. to Polaris Pkwy/Gemini Pl.

Modeling Assumptions Proposed Mode LRT

Assumed Speed 24 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing (segment length)

Segment 1 0.33 mile (4.1 miles)

Segment 2 1.0 mile (9.4 miles – Rail ROW)

Segment 3 0.5 mile (1.6 miles)

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 10 minutes

Off-Peak Hours 15 minutes

Park and Ride Locations

Polaris & Gemini (new)

Crosswoods (existing)

Indianola & Morse (existing)

Downtown to Polaris Via North Corridor Route Alignment

Page 34: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 32

DRAFT 10/21/2016

TSR (No Build)

North Corridor

BuildDelta Percent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

North Corridor

BuildDelta Percent

Delta

CBD to Polaris via North Corridor LRT Alternative - 6,877 6,877 - 9,096 9,096 Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 8,931 (419) -4% 10,716 10,233 (483) -5%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,474 (408) -14% 3,251 2,816 (435) -13%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 4,841 (80) -2% 6,238 6,137 (101) -2%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,786 1,387 (399) -22% 2,003 1,543 (460) -23%Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,855 6,977 122 2% 7,788 8,082 294 4%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,998 119 6% 2,176 2,322 146 7%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 4,412 300 7% 4,776 5,190 414 9%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,863 (5) 0% 2,440 2,456 16 1%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,385 (22) -1% 3,879 3,887 8 0%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,183 62 3% 2,488 2,561 73 3%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 7,135 433 6% 7,942 8,514 572 7%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 509 (1) 0% 693 687 (6) -1%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 650 1 0% 951 946 (5) -1%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 155 (8) -5% 189 175 (14) -7%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 522 (4) -1% 563 559 (4) -1%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,864 (50) -3% 2,470 2,401 (69) -3%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,458 (33) -1% 2,621 2,584 (37) -1%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,827 (9) 0% 1,903 1,889 (14) -1%Rt 25 - Brice 422 423 1 0% 424 425 1 0%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 2,021 30 2% 2,260 2,302 42 2%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,045 7 1% 1,106 1,117 11 1%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 621 (15) -2% 687 665 (22) -3%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,984 194 11% 1,970 2,228 258 13%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 308 (26) -8% 353 315 (38) -11%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 24 (37) -61% 82 35 (47) -57%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 23 (5) -18% 30 23 (7) -23%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 130 (23) -15% 169 137 (32) -19%Rt 44 - Easton 13 13 - 0% 13 12 (1) -8%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 30 (5) -14% 47 38 (9) -19%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 16 (1) -6% 18 17 (1) -6%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 330 25 8% 406 454 48 12%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 4 - 0% 5 5 - 0%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 421 15 4% 507 523 16 3%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 470 (17) -3% 541 515 (26) -5%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 319 (7) -2% 339 329 (10) -3%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 69 (6) -8% 93 83 (10) -11%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 36 (23) -39% 75 40 (35) -47%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,211 (110) -2% 6,263 6,079 (184) -3%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 2,692 334 14% 2,870 3,387 517 18%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 29 (5) -15% 35 30 (5) -14%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 171 (1) -1% 211 210 (1) 0%

System Total 70,041 76,842 6,801 10% 81,595 91,051 9,456 12%

Downtown to Polaris via North Corridor LRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Routes Impacted

by Corridor

Page 35: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 33

TSR (No Build)

North Corridor

BuildDelta Percent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

North Corridor

BuildDelta Percent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (17,639) (26,542) Linked Trips 49,329 52,654 3,325 6.7% 57,872 62,473 4,601 8.0%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,699 31,692 993 3.2% 35,926 37,229 1,303 3.6%Speed (mph) 24.0 24.0 *Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 10Off-Peak 15

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

Additional System Metrics2015 2040

Page 36: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 34

N. High – Project Sheet Sycamore St./High St. to Wilson Bridge Road

Modeling Assumptions

Changes to existing Service

Remove TSR Routes 2 and 2L North of High/Broad. Create small feeder route along Polaris Pkwy from Sancus Blvd to West St, operating at 30 minute headways. Remove Route 1 service along High Street from Lane Ave to Broad St.

Proposed Mode LRT (BRT)

Assumed Speed 17.5 (15.6*) mph

Assumed Stop Spacing (segment length)

Segment 1 0.33 mile (5.3 miles)

Segment 2 0.5 mile (5.8 miles)

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 7.5 minutes

Off-Peak Hours 10 minutes

Park and Ride Locations

Polaris & Gemini (new)

Delawanda (existing)

Crosswoods (existing)

* Speed reflects BRT alternative

N. High Alignment

Page 37: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 35

DRAFT 11/22/2016

TSR (No Build)

CBD - Worthington via High St

Build

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

CBD - Worthington via High St

Build

DeltaPercent

Delta

CBD to Worthington via High St BRT - 9,486 9,486 - 11,520 11,520 Northern Feeder Route - 456 456 - 584 584 Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,854 4,570 (2,284) -33% 7,788 5,178 (2,610) -34%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 5,319 (4,031) -43% 10,716 6,225 (4,491) -42%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,787 - (1,787) -100% 2,003 - (2,003) -100%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 4,232 1,874 79% 2,870 5,180 2,310 80%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,903 24 1% 2,176 2,218 42 2%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 3,058 176 6% 3,251 3,372 121 4%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 5,237 1,125 27% 4,776 6,093 1,317 28%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 5,148 227 5% 6,237 6,491 254 4%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,913 45 2% 2,440 2,528 88 4%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,466 59 2% 3,879 3,963 84 2%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,226 105 5% 2,488 2,619 131 5%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 6,872 170 3% 7,942 8,170 228 3%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 586 76 15% 693 796 103 15%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 731 82 13% 951 1,059 108 11%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 179 16 10% 189 214 25 13%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 470 (56) -11% 563 505 (58) -10%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,870 (44) -2% 2,470 2,397 (73) -3%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,464 (27) -1% 2,621 2,576 (45) -2%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,806 (30) -2% 1,903 1,863 (40) -2%Rt 25 - Brice 422 432 10 2% 424 437 13 3%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 2,189 198 10% 2,260 2,510 250 11%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,165 127 12% 1,106 1,231 125 11%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 560 (76) -12% 687 636 (51) -7%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,905 115 6% 1,970 2,121 151 8%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 328 (6) -2% 353 344 (9) -3%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 95 34 56% 82 124 42 51%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 31 3 11% 30 32 2 7%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 164 11 7% 169 189 20 12%Rt 44 - Easton 13 13 - 0% 13 13 - 0%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 37 2 6% 47 51 4 9%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 19 2 12% 18 23 5 28%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 339 34 11% 406 458 52 13%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 3 (1) -25% 5 4 (1) -20%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 444 38 9% 507 547 40 8%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 553 66 14% 541 623 82 15%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 502 176 54% 339 530 191 56%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 81 6 8% 93 93 - 0%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 60 1 2% 75 77 2 3%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,645 324 6% 6,263 6,732 469 7%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 51 17 50% 35 63 28 80%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 190 18 10% 211 226 15 7%

System Total 70,041 76,802 6,761 10% 81,594 90,619 9,025 11%

Downtown to Worthington via High St BRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Routes Impacted

by Corridor

Page 38: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 36

TSR (No Build)

CBD - Worthington via High St

Build

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

CBD - Worthington via High St

Build

DeltaPercent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (4,948) (9,641) Linked Trips 49,328 50,497 1,169 2.4% 57,871 59,658 1,787 3.1%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,698 30,878 180 0.6% 35,925 36,264 339 0.9%Speed (mph) 11.8 15.6 3.8 32%*Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 7.5Off-Peak 10

Additional System Metrics

2015 2040

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

Page 39: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 37

DRAFT 11/22/2016

TSR (No Build)

CBD - Worthington via High St

Build

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

CBD - Worthington via High St

Build

DeltaPercent

Delta

CBD to Worthington via High St LRT - 10,699 10,699 - 12,876 12,876 Northern Feeder Route - 539 539 - 702 702 Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,854 4,497 (2,357) -34% 7,788 5,115 (2,673) -34%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 5,488 (3,862) -41% 10,716 6,452 (4,264) -40%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,787 - (1,787) -100% 2,003 - (2,003) -100%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 4,286 1,928 82% 2,870 5,272 2,402 84%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,907 28 1% 2,176 2,218 42 2%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,994 112 4% 3,251 3,291 40 1%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 5,068 956 23% 4,776 5,902 1,126 24%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 5,232 311 6% 6,237 6,603 366 6%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,936 68 4% 2,440 2,553 113 5%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,659 252 7% 3,879 4,234 355 9%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,220 99 5% 2,488 2,610 122 5%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 6,875 173 3% 7,942 8,177 235 3%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 561 51 10% 693 751 58 8%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 730 81 12% 951 1,056 105 11%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 171 8 5% 189 208 19 10%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 473 (53) -10% 563 511 (52) -9%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,867 (47) -2% 2,470 2,397 (73) -3%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,474 (17) -1% 2,621 2,593 (28) -1%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,798 (38) -2% 1,903 1,854 (49) -3%Rt 25 - Brice 422 435 13 3% 424 440 16 4%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 2,186 195 10% 2,260 2,500 240 11%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,139 101 10% 1,106 1,205 99 9%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 699 63 10% 687 796 109 16%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,923 133 7% 1,970 2,149 179 9%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 330 (4) -1% 353 346 (7) -2%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 91 30 49% 82 123 41 50%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 30 2 7% 30 32 2 7%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 163 10 7% 169 184 15 9%Rt 44 - Easton 13 16 3 23% 13 19 6 46%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 42 7 20% 47 59 12 26%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 18 1 6% 18 21 3 17%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 348 43 14% 406 472 66 16%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 4 - 0% 5 5 - 0%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 450 44 11% 507 557 50 10%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 585 98 20% 541 655 114 21%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 502 176 54% 339 529 190 56%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 78 3 4% 93 90 (3) -3%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 58 (1) -2% 75 74 (1) -1%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,603 282 5% 6,263 6,672 409 7%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 60 26 76% 35 79 44 126%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 187 15 9% 211 220 9 4%

System Total 70,041 78,425 8,384 12% 81,594 92,606 11,012 13%

Routes Impacted

by Corridor

Downtown to Worthington via High St LRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Page 40: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 38

TSR (No Build)

CBD - Worthington via High St

Build

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

CBD - Worthington via High St

Build

DeltaPercent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (10,671) (16,603) Linked Trips 49,328 51,473 2,145 4.3% 57,871 60,811 2,940 5.1%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,698 31,166 468 1.5% 35,925 36,602 677 1.9%Speed (mph) 11.8 17.5 5.7 48%*Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 7.5Off-Peak 10

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

Additional System Metrics

2015 2040

Page 41: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 39

11 – James/Stelzer (Eastland – Easton) – Project Sheet Hamilton Rd./Refugee Rd. to Morse Crossing/New Bond St.

Modeling Assumptions

Changes to existing Service

Delete 2017 TSR Route 23 service on Stelzer. BRT will replace Route 23 between Barnett Livingston and Easton TC. Create small feeder route along Courtright Rd/Kimberly Pkwy/Hamilton Rd to Eastland mall, operating at 15 minute headways. Re-route all routes ending at Transit Dr/Stelzer Transit Center to proposed Easton Transit Center.

Proposed Mode BRT

Assumed Speed 18.2 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing 0.5 mile

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 10 minutes

Off-Peak Hours 15 minutes

Park and Ride Locations

Easton Transit Center (existing – assumes

relocation)

Livingston & Barnett (existing)

Eastland Mall (existing)

Eastland Mall – Easton Corridor Route Alignment

Page 42: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 40

DRAFT 10/21/2016

TSR (No Build)

Eastland Mall - Easton Build

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Eastland Mall - Easton Build

DeltaPercent

Delta

Eastland Mall - Easton BRT Alternative - 3,648 3,648 - 4,372 4,372 Courtright Rd/Kimberly Pkwy/Hamilton Rd Feeder Route - 203 203 - 209 209 Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 - (2,491) -100% 2,621 - (2,621) -100%Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,855 6,880 25 0% 7,788 7,902 114 1%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 9,585 235 3% 10,716 11,106 390 4%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,866 (13) -1% 2,176 2,157 (19) -1%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,872 (10) 0% 3,251 3,217 (34) -1%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 4,257 145 4% 4,776 4,940 164 3%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 4,940 19 0% 6,238 6,229 (9) 0%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,929 61 3% 2,440 2,552 112 5%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,400 (7) 0% 3,879 3,869 (10) 0%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,116 (5) 0% 2,488 2,478 (10) 0%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 6,426 (276) -4% 7,942 7,610 (332) -4%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 499 (11) -2% 693 678 (15) -2%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 649 - 0% 951 947 (4) 0%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 163 - 0% 189 189 - 0%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 528 2 0% 563 566 3 1%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,908 (6) 0% 2,470 2,450 (20) -1%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,958 122 7% 1,903 2,071 168 9%Rt 25 - Brice 422 472 50 12% 424 477 53 13%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 1,936 (55) -3% 2,260 2,176 (84) -4%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,057 19 2% 1,106 1,153 47 4%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 645 9 1% 687 699 12 2%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,911 121 7% 1,970 2,115 145 7%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 334 - 0% 353 354 1 0%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 61 - 0% 82 82 - 0%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 26 (2) -7% 30 27 (3) -10%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 153 - 0% 169 169 - 0%Rt 44 - Easton 13 12 (1) -8% 13 10 (3) -23%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 34 (1) -3% 47 49 2 4%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 17 - 0% 18 18 - 0%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 317 12 4% 406 417 11 3%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 4 - 0% 5 5 - 0%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 407 1 0% 507 508 1 0%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 489 2 0% 541 544 3 1%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 326 - 0% 339 339 - 0%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 74 (1) -1% 93 90 (3) -3%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 58 (1) -2% 75 74 (1) -1%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,282 (39) -1% 6,263 6,207 (56) -1%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,786 1,788 2 0% 2,003 2,005 2 0%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 2,358 - 0% 2,870 2,867 (3) 0%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 34 - 0% 35 35 - 0%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 172 - 0% 211 210 (1) 0%

System Total 70,041 71,798 1,757 3% 81,595 84,176 2,581 3%

Routes Impacted

by Corridor

Eastland Mall - Easton BRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Page 43: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 41

TSR (No Build)

Eastland Mall - Easton Build

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Eastland Mall - Easton Build

DeltaPercent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (3,756) (5,986) Linked Trips 49,329 50,208 879 1.8% 57,872 59,101 1,229 2.1%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,699 31,001 302 1.0% 35,925 36,385 460 1.3%Speed (mph) 15.8 18.2 2.4 15%*Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 10Off-Peak 15

Additional System Metrics

2015 2040

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

Page 44: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 42

Whittier/Alum Creek – Project Sheet Spring St./High St. to Alum Creek Dr./Whittier Dr.

Modeling Assumptions

Changes to existing Service

Delete 2017 TSR Route 5 service on Whittier and High Street south of Broad Street. BRT will replace Route 5 on Whittier Street, and High Street south of Broad Street.

Proposed Mode BRT

Assumed Speed 15 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing

Segment 1 0.33 (4.5 miles)

Segment 2 0.5 (1.3 miles)

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 10 minutes

Off-Peak Hours 15 minutes

Park and Ride Locations

Alum Creek & Winslow (new)

Alum Creek – Whittier Corridor Route Alignment

Page 45: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 43

DRAFT 10/21/2016

TSR (No Build)

Alum Creek - Whittier

Build

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Alum Creek - Whittier

Build

DeltaPercent

Delta

Alum Creek - Whittier BRT Alternative - 3,424 3,424 - 4,571 4,571 Alum Creek to Brice Rd Feeder Route - 973 973 - 1,285 1,285 Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 2,161 (1,951) -47% 4,776 2,437 (2,339) -49%Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,855 7,091 236 3% 7,788 8,085 297 4%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 9,400 50 1% 10,716 10,754 38 0%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,933 54 3% 2,176 2,258 82 4%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,926 44 2% 3,251 3,294 43 1%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 5,142 221 4% 6,238 6,533 295 5%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,887 19 1% 2,440 2,473 33 1%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,518 111 3% 3,879 4,035 156 4%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,119 (2) 0% 2,488 2,494 6 0%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 6,841 139 2% 7,942 8,108 166 2%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 529 19 4% 693 711 18 3%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 664 15 2% 951 980 29 3%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 187 24 15% 189 216 27 14%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 534 8 2% 563 573 10 2%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,915 1 0% 2,470 2,459 (11) 0%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,456 (35) -1% 2,621 2,547 (74) -3%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,834 (2) 0% 1,903 1,907 4 0%Rt 25 - Brice 422 439 17 4% 424 439 15 4%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 1,995 4 0% 2,260 2,270 10 0%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,045 7 1% 1,106 1,111 5 0%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 653 17 3% 687 708 21 3%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,798 8 0% 1,970 1,984 14 1%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 331 (3) -1% 353 350 (3) -1%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 64 3 5% 82 88 6 7%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 27 (1) -4% 30 30 - 0%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 152 (1) -1% 169 165 (4) -2%Rt 44 - Easton 13 15 2 15% 13 17 4 31%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 55 20 57% 47 94 47 100%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 18 1 6% 18 20 2 11%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 318 13 4% 406 432 26 6%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 4 - 0% 5 5 - 0%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 423 17 4% 507 525 18 4%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 521 34 7% 541 594 53 10%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 338 12 4% 339 355 16 5%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 80 5 7% 93 98 5 5%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 81 22 37% 75 101 26 35%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,542 221 4% 6,263 6,575 312 5%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,786 1,802 16 1% 2,003 2,022 19 1%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 2,810 452 19% 2,870 3,434 564 20%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 34 - 0% 35 35 - 0%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 167 (5) -3% 211 206 (5) -2%

System Total 70,041 74,250 4,209 6% 81,595 87,382 5,787 7%

Routes Impacted

by Corridor

Alum Creek - Whittier BRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Page 46: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 44

TSR (No Build)

Alum Creek - Whittier

Build

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Alum Creek - Whittier

Build

DeltaPercent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (5,480) (8,899) Linked Trips 49,328 50,269 941 1.9% 57,872 59,218 1,346 2.3%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,699 31,063 364 1.2% 35,926 36,441 515 1.4%Speed (mph) 13.0 15.0 2.0 15%*Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 10Off-Peak 15

Additional System Metrics

2015 2040

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

Page 47: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 45

W. Broad – Project Sheet Broad St./Norton Rd. to Broad St./High St.

Modeling Assumptions

Changes to existing Service

Delete 2017 TSR Route 10 service on W. Broad, west of High Street. BRT will replace Route 10.

Proposed Mode BRT

Assumed Speed 17.1 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing (segment length)

Segment 1 0.5 mile (5.5 miles)

Segment 2 0.33 mile (2 miles)

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 10 minutes

Off-Peak Hours 12 minutes

Park and Ride Locations

Broad & Southampton (existing)

Westland Mall (new) West Broad Corridor Route Alignment

Page 48: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 46

DRAFT 10/21/2016

TSR (No Build)

West Broad Build

Delta Percent Delta

TSR (No Build)

West Broad Build

Delta Percent Delta

West Broad BRT Alternative - 4,648 4,648 - 5,937 5,937 Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 4,133 (2,569) -38% 7,942 4,865 (3,077) -39%Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,855 7,066 211 3% 7,788 8,086 298 4%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 9,350 - 0% 10,716 10,776 60 1%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,853 (26) -1% 2,176 2,153 (23) -1%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,915 33 1% 3,251 3,321 70 2%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 4,035 (77) -2% 4,776 4,685 (91) -2%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 5,017 96 2% 6,238 6,343 105 2%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,891 23 1% 2,440 2,430 (10) 0%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,425 18 1% 3,879 3,908 29 1%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,127 6 0% 2,488 2,466 (22) -1%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 515 5 1% 693 712 19 3%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 591 (58) -9% 951 853 (98) -10%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 165 2 1% 189 192 3 2%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 554 28 5% 563 610 47 8%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,933 19 1% 2,470 2,493 23 1%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,522 31 1% 2,621 2,612 (9) 0%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,870 34 2% 1,903 1,964 61 3%Rt 25 - Brice 422 452 30 7% 424 458 34 8%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 1,986 (5) 0% 2,260 2,257 (3) 0%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,028 (10) -1% 1,106 1,092 (14) -1%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 640 4 1% 687 689 2 0%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,805 15 1% 1,970 1,985 15 1%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 340 6 2% 353 362 9 3%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 60 (1) -2% 82 75 (7) -9%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 25 (3) -11% 30 27 (3) -10%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 148 (5) -3% 169 170 1 1%Rt 44 - Easton 13 18 5 38% 13 19 6 46%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 51 16 46% 47 63 16 34%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 17 - 0% 18 19 1 6%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 309 4 1% 406 412 6 1%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 - (4) -100% 5 - (5) -100%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 425 19 5% 507 530 23 5%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 495 8 2% 541 543 2 0%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 330 4 1% 339 340 1 0%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 76 1 1% 93 94 1 1%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 59 - 0% 75 75 - 0%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,588 267 5% 6,263 6,610 347 6%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,786 1,786 - 0% 2,003 2,002 (1) 0%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 2,556 198 8% 2,870 3,189 319 11%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 34 - 0% 35 35 - 0%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 155 (17) -10% 211 192 (19) -9%

System Total 70,041 72,997 2,956 4% 81,595 85,648 4,053 5%

Routes Impacted by Corridor

West Broad BRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Page 49: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 47

TSR (No Build)

West Broad Build

Delta Percent Delta

TSR (No Build)

West Broad Build

Delta Percent Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (6,278) (9,548) Linked Trips 49,329 50,537 1,208 2.4% 57,872 59,573 1,701 2.9%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,699 31,297 598 1.9% 35,926 36,768 842 2.3%Speed (mph) 14.9 17.1 2.2 15%*Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 10Off-Peak 12

Additional System Metrics2015 2040

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

Page 50: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 48

Franklinton – Columbus State – Project Sheet Town St./Souder Ave. to Spring St./Jefferson Ave.

Modeling Assumptions Proposed Mode Street Car

Assumed Speed 8 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing (Route length) 0.25 mile (2.7 miles)

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 10 minutes

Off-Peak Hours 15 minutes Franklinton – East Downtown Corridor Route Alignment

Page 51: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 49

DRAFT 10/25/2016

TSR (No Build)

Franklinton - East

Downtown Build

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Franklinton - East

Downtown Build

DeltaPercent

Delta

Franklinton - East Downtown Streetcar - 3,876 3,876 - 6,291 6,291 Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,855 6,831 (24) 0% 7,788 7,762 (26) 0%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 9,406 56 1% 10,716 10,787 71 1%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,718 (161) -9% 2,176 2,012 (164) -8%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,907 25 1% 3,251 3,317 66 2%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 4,132 20 0% 4,776 4,818 42 1%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 4,610 (311) -6% 6,238 5,826 (412) -7%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,900 32 2% 2,440 2,540 100 4%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,368 (39) -1% 3,879 3,838 (41) -1%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,130 9 0% 2,488 2,484 (4) 0%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 6,483 (219) -3% 7,942 7,614 (328) -4%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 444 (66) -13% 693 561 (132) -19%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 462 (187) -29% 951 592 (359) -38%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 162 (1) -1% 189 189 - 0%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 513 (13) -2% 563 549 (14) -2%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,849 (65) -3% 2,470 2,385 (85) -3%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,495 4 0% 2,621 2,628 7 0%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,840 4 0% 1,903 1,910 7 0%Rt 25 - Brice 422 424 2 0% 424 427 3 1%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 1,967 (24) -1% 2,260 2,214 (46) -2%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,034 (4) 0% 1,106 1,104 (2) 0%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 636 - 0% 687 687 - 0%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,793 3 0% 1,970 1,976 6 0%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 336 2 1% 353 358 5 1%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 65 4 7% 82 97 15 18%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 26 (2) -7% 30 28 (2) -7%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 171 18 12% 169 198 29 17%Rt 44 - Easton 13 14 1 8% 13 14 1 8%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 39 4 11% 47 57 10 21%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 12 (5) -29% 18 12 (6) -33%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 323 18 6% 406 459 53 13%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 2 (2) -50% 5 3 (2) -40%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 440 34 8% 507 553 46 9%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 524 37 8% 541 593 52 10%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 353 27 8% 339 378 39 12%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 74 (1) -1% 93 92 (1) -1%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 60 1 2% 75 77 2 3%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,320 (1) 0% 6,263 6,262 (1) 0%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,786 1,762 (24) -1% 2,003 1,959 (44) -2%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 2,476 118 5% 2,870 3,064 194 7%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 34 - 0% 35 35 - 0%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 149 (23) -13% 211 173 (38) -18%

System Total 70,041 73,164 3,123 4% 81,595 86,927 5,332 7%*Alternative run with a $0.50 fare

Franklinton - East Downtown Streetcar Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results*

Route

2015 2040

Page 52: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 50

TSR (No Build)

Franklinton - East

Downtown Build

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Franklinton - East

Downtown Build

DeltaPercent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (3,800) (6,828) Linked Trips 49,329 50,461 1,132 2.3% 57,871 59,846 1,975 3.4%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,699 31,302 603 2.0% 35,926 37,030 1,104 3.1%Speed (mph) 8.0 8.0 *Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min) Peak 10Off-Peak 15

Additional System Metrics

2015 2040

Page 53: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 51

E. 5th/Stelzer (Downtown – CMH – Easton) – Project Sheet Sycamore St./High St. to Morse Crossing/New Bond St.

Modeling Assumptions

Changes to existing Service

Delete Airport Express route, Add airport terminal feeder shuttle route from Stelzer/17th operating every 15 minutes. Re-route all routes ending at Transit Dr/Stelzer Transit Center to proposed Easton Transit Center.

Proposed Mode LRT

Assumed Speed 15 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing (segment length) Segment 1 0.33 mile (2 miles)

Segment 2 0.5 mile (5.9 miles)

Segment 3 1.0 mile (4.3 miles)

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 10 minutes

Off-Peak Hours 15 minutes

Park and Ride Locations

Easton Transit Center (existing – assumes relocation)

Stelzer & 17th (new) Downtown-Airport- Easton Corridor Route Alignment

Page 54: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 52

DRAFT 10/21/2016

TSR (No Build)

Downtown-Airport-Easton Build

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Downtown-Airport-Easton Build

DeltaPercent

Delta

Downtown-Airport-Easton LRT Alternative - 2,119 2,119 - 2,943 2,943 Airport Terminal Shuttle - 131 131 - 147 147 Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 - (172) -100% 211 - (211) -100%Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,855 6,826 (29) 0% 7,788 7,796 8 0%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 9,208 (142) -2% 10,716 10,522 (194) -2%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,538 (330) -18% 2,440 2,009 (431) -18%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,039 (82) -4% 2,488 2,390 (98) -4%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,910 31 2% 2,176 2,212 36 2%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,894 12 0% 3,251 3,274 23 1%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 4,169 57 1% 4,776 4,864 88 2%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 5,010 89 2% 6,238 6,405 167 3%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,448 41 1% 3,879 3,940 61 2%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 6,716 14 0% 7,942 7,961 19 0%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 519 9 2% 693 695 2 0%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 641 (8) -1% 951 933 (18) -2%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 169 6 4% 189 198 9 5%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 526 - 0% 563 564 1 0%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,918 4 0% 2,470 2,480 10 0%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,494 3 0% 2,621 2,622 1 0%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,825 (11) -1% 1,903 1,891 (12) -1%Rt 25 - Brice 422 427 5 1% 424 430 6 1%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 1,925 (66) -3% 2,260 2,171 (89) -4%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,036 (2) 0% 1,106 1,108 2 0%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 639 3 0% 687 690 3 0%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,767 (23) -1% 1,970 1,935 (35) -2%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 334 - 0% 353 352 (1) 0%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 70 9 15% 82 102 20 24%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 28 - 0% 30 30 - 0%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 153 - 0% 169 169 - 0%Rt 44 - Easton 13 13 - 0% 13 12 (1) -8%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 37 2 6% 47 49 2 4%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 14 (3) -18% 18 15 (3) -17%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 319 14 5% 406 440 34 8%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 4 - 0% 5 5 - 0%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 413 7 2% 507 515 8 2%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 517 30 6% 541 578 37 7%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 336 10 3% 339 350 11 3%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 76 1 1% 93 94 1 1%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 59 - 0% 75 75 - 0%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,403 82 2% 6,263 6,370 107 2%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,786 1,812 26 1% 2,003 2,036 33 2%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 2,545 187 8% 2,870 3,101 231 8%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 50 16 47% 35 52 17 49%

System Total 70,041 72,081 2,040 3% 81,595 84,529 2,934 4%

Downtown-Airport-Easton LRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Routes Impacted

by Corridor

Page 55: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 53

TSR (No Build)

Downtown-Airport-Easton Build

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Downtown-Airport-Easton Build

DeltaPercent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (3,068) (4,961) Linked Trips 49,329 49,932 603 1.2% 57,872 58,805 933 1.6%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,699 30,874 175 0.6% 35,926 36,212 286 0.8%Speed (mph) 12.8 15.0 2.2 17%*Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 10Off-Peak 15

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

Additional System Metrics

2015 2040

Page 56: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 54

Newark Commuter Rail – Project Sheet Downtown Newark-Columbus Convention Center

Modeling Assumptions Changes to existing Service None

Proposed Mode Commuter Rail

Assumed Speed 38 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing (segment length) Entire Corridor 5 miles (33 miles)

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 30 minutes in peak

direction only

Off-Peak Hours N/A

Station Locations

Downtown Newark Parking

Thornwood Drive Parking

Hazelton-Etna Rd (Pataskala) Parking

Reynoldsburg-New Albany Rd.(Blacklick) Parking

Stelzer Rd Parking

Convention Center No Parking

Page 57: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 55

DRAFT 10/21/2016

TSR (No Build)

Newark to Downtown Columbus

Build*

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Newark to Downtown Columbus

Build*

DeltaPercent

Delta

Newark - Downtown Columbus Commuter Rail - 1,436 1,436 - 2,136 2,136 Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,785 6,838 53 1% 7,380 7,474 94 1%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 7,958 8,154 196 2% 8,665 8,946 281 3%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 2,584 2,585 1 0% 2,986 2,989 3 0%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 3,828 3,848 20 1% 4,168 4,199 31 1%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 3,913 3,954 41 1% 4,330 4,396 66 2%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 3,858 3,901 43 1% 4,581 4,658 77 2%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 2,553 2,606 53 2% 3,271 3,378 107 3%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 4,531 4,535 4 0% 4,932 4,938 6 0%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,387 2,393 6 0% 2,798 2,809 11 0%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 5,927 5,895 (32) -1% 6,859 6,829 (30) 0%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 675 675 - 0% 816 817 1 0%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 930 930 - 0% 1,419 1,420 1 0%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 80 80 - 0% 90 90 - 0%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 519 522 3 1% 564 567 3 1%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,975 1,981 6 0% 2,345 2,352 7 0%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 1,794 1,859 65 4% 1,958 2,044 86 4%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,837 1,841 4 0% 1,903 1,906 3 0%Rt 25 - Brice 488 487 (1) 0% 532 529 (3) -1%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,996 1,929 (67) -3% 2,123 2,045 (78) -4%Rt 32 - N Broadway 804 803 (1) 0% 851 850 (1) 0%Rt 33 - Henderson 472 472 - 0% 509 509 - 0%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 949 952 3 0% 1,031 1,034 3 0%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 219 220 1 0% 229 230 1 0%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 238 242 4 2% 327 331 4 1%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 31 31 - 0% 33 33 - 0%Rt 43 - Westerville 128 135 7 5% 151 159 8 5%Rt 44 - Easton 2 2 - 0% 2 2 - 0%Rt 45 - New Albany 213 148 (65) -31% 286 189 (97) -34%Rt 46 - Gahanna 16 16 - 0% 19 19 - 0%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 343 242 (101) -29% 406 263 (143) -35%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester - - - - - - Rt 61 - Grove City 229 233 4 2% 267 273 6 2%Rt 71 - Hilliard 334 335 1 0% 384 386 2 1%Rt 72 - Tuttle 292 294 2 1% 327 331 4 1%Rt 73 - Dublin 203 204 1 0% 225 226 1 0%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 300 300 - 0% 363 363 - 0%Rt 101 - CMAX 4,018 4,157 139 3% 4,710 4,922 212 5%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 2,171 2,187 16 1% 2,472 2,492 20 1%Rt 121 - CBUS 826 834 8 1% 907 923 16 2%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 2 2 - 0% 2 2 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 80 80 - 0% 77 76 (1) -1%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 275 341 66 24% 341 439 98 29%

System Total 66,763 68,679 1,916 3% 75,639 78,574 2,935 4%

Newark to Downtown Columbus Commuter Rail - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Page 58: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 56

TSR (No Build)

Newark to Downtown Columbus

Build*

DeltaPercent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Newark to Downtown Columbus

Build*

DeltaPercent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT**) (18,412) (28,183) Linked Trips 51,429 52,509 1,080 2.1% 58,439 60,086 1,647 2.8%

0-Car Linked Trips 33,369 33,911 542 1.6% 37,857 38,642 785 2.1%Speed (mph) 38.0 38.0

Peak*** 30Off-Peak N/A

* Rail includes a $4.00 fare** Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2***In peak direction only

Stations**** NewarkThornwoo

d Drive Pataskala BlacklickPort

ColumbusDowntown Columbus Total

Newark - 71 5 10 27 159 272 Thornwood Drive 71 - - - 21 105 197 Pataskala 5 - - 10 17 117 149 Blacklick 10 - 10 - 2 108 130 Port Columbus 27 21 17 2 - 66 133 Downtown Columbus 159 105 117 108 66 - 555 Total 272 197 149 130 133 555 1,436

Stations**** NewarkThornwoo

d Drive Pataskala BlacklickPort

ColumbusDowntown Columbus Total

Newark - 77 8 12 42 233 372 Thornwood Drive 77 - 1 - 54 154 286 Pataskala 8 1 - 11 25 174 219 Blacklick 12 - 11 - 4 183 210 Port Columbus 42 54 25 4 - 90 215 Downtown Columbus 233 154 174 183 90 - 834 Total 372 286 219 210 215 834 2,136

Stations**** NewarkThornwoo

d Drive Pataskala BlacklickPort

ColumbusDowntown Columbus Total

Newark - 6 3 2 15 74 100 Thornwood Drive 6 - 1 - 33 49 89 Pataskala 3 1 - 1 8 57 70 Blacklick 2 - 1 - 2 75 80 Port Columbus 15 33 8 2 - 24 82 Downtown Columbus 74 49 57 75 24 - 279 Total 100 89 70 80 82 279 700 ****Station Names May Need to Be Modified

Additional System Metrics

2015 2040

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

2015 Station to Station STOPS Boardings

2040 Station to Station STOPS Boardings

Delta Station to Station Boardings

Page 59: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 57

Northwest (Downtown – Dublin) – Project Sheet

Modeling Assumptions Changes to existing Service None

Proposed Mode BRT

Assumed Speed 17 mph

Assumed Stop Spacing

Segment 1 Match downtown stations

of other HCT Corridors

Segment 2 0.5 mile

Proposed Frequency

Peak Hours 10 minutes

Off-Peak Hours 15 minutes

Page 60: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 58

DRAFT 5/29/2017

TSR (No Build)

Northwest Corridor

BuildDelta Percent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Northwest Corridor

BuildDelta Percent

Delta

Routes Impacted by Corridor Northwest Corridor BRT Alternative - 3,873 3,873 - 4,379 4,379

Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,855 5,663 (1,192) -17% 7,788 6,397 (1,391) -18%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 9,077 (273) -3% 10,716 10,426 (290) -3%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,829 (50) -3% 2,176 2,090 (86) -4%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,835 (47) -2% 3,251 3,190 (61) -2%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 3,915 (197) -5% 4,776 4,547 (229) -5%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 4,968 47 1% 6,238 6,288 50 1%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,929 61 3% 2,440 2,516 76 3%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,509 102 3% 3,879 3,997 118 3%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,120 (1) 0% 2,488 2,491 3 0%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 6,704 2 0% 7,942 7,942 - 0%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 491 (19) -4% 693 662 (31) -4%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 614 (35) -5% 951 907 (44) -5%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 190 27 17% 189 217 28 15%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 529 3 1% 563 566 3 1%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,835 (79) -4% 2,470 2,376 (94) -4%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,482 (9) 0% 2,621 2,603 (18) -1%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,818 (18) -1% 1,903 1,885 (18) -1%Rt 25 - Brice 422 421 (1) 0% 424 423 (1) 0%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 1,893 (98) -5% 2,260 2,139 (121) -5%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,023 (15) -1% 1,106 1,104 (2) 0%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 427 (209) -33% 687 459 (228) -33%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,770 (20) -1% 1,970 1,945 (25) -1%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 333 (1) 0% 353 352 (1) 0%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 60 (1) -2% 82 80 (2) -2%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 28 - 0% 30 30 - 0%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 154 1 1% 169 170 1 1%Rt 44 - Easton 13 14 1 8% 13 14 1 8%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 35 - 0% 47 47 - 0%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 17 - 0% 18 19 1 6%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 305 - 0% 406 407 1 0%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 4 - 0% 5 6 1 20%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 396 (10) -2% 507 501 (6) -1%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 486 (1) 0% 541 540 (1) 0%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 244 (82) -25% 339 259 (80) -24%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 46 (29) -39% 93 59 (34) -37%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 66 7 12% 75 81 6 8%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,323 2 0% 6,263 6,262 (1) 0%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,786 1,709 (77) -4% 2,003 1,902 (101) -5%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 1,940 (418) -18% 2,870 2,445 (425) -15%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 30 (4) -12% 35 30 (5) -14%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 171 (1) -1% 211 210 (1) 0%

System Total 70,041 71,280 1,239 2% 81,595 82,967 1,372 2%

Northwest Corridor BRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Page 61: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 59

TSR (No Build)

Northwest Corridor

BuildDelta Percent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Northwest Corridor

BuildDelta Percent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (5,853) (6,679) Linked Trips 49,329 50,119 790 1.6% 57,872 58,765 893 1.5%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,698 31,018 320 1.0% 35,926 36,283 357 1.0%Speed (mph) - 17.0 17.0 *Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 10Off-Peak 15

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)

Additional System Metrics2015 2040

Page 62: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 60

Combined Alternative #1 This alternative includes previously depicted alternatives. They are listed below:

E. Main (BRT) N. High (BRT) W. Broad (BRT)

DRAFT 5/29/2017

TSR (No Build)

Combined Alternative

1 BuildDelta Percent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Combined Alternative

1 BuildDelta Percent

Delta

CBD to Worthington via High St BRT - 9,498 9,498 - 11,400 11,400 Northern Feeder Route - 463 463 - 593 593 E Main/W Broad BRT Alternative - 13,488 13,488 - 17,337 17,337 East Main Feeder Route - 42 42 - 50 50 Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,855 4,327 (2,528) -37% 7,788 4,793 (2,995) -38%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 - (9,350) -100% 10,716 - (10,716) -100%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 4,067 (2,635) -39% 7,942 4,819 (3,123) -39%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,786 - (1,786) -100% 2,003 - (2,003) -100%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 3,873 1,515 64% 2,870 4,744 1,874 65%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,897 18 1% 2,176 2,248 72 3%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,899 17 1% 3,251 3,180 (71) -2%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 5,107 995 24% 4,776 5,943 1,167 24%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 5,019 98 2% 6,238 6,333 95 2%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,799 (69) -4% 2,440 2,310 (130) -5%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,608 201 6% 3,879 4,132 253 7%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,166 45 2% 2,488 2,492 4 0%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 586 76 15% 693 796 103 15%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 626 (23) -4% 951 885 (66) -7%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 187 24 15% 189 221 32 17%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 475 (51) -10% 563 519 (44) -8%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,931 17 1% 2,470 2,494 24 1%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,630 139 6% 2,621 2,815 194 7%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 1,872 36 2% 1,903 1,990 87 5%Rt 25 - Brice 422 483 61 14% 424 500 76 18%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 2,117 126 6% 2,260 2,408 148 7%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,186 148 14% 1,106 1,250 144 13%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 624 (12) -2% 687 705 18 3%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,973 183 10% 1,970 2,196 226 11%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 338 4 1% 353 361 8 2%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 105 44 72% 82 149 67 82%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 30 2 7% 30 31 1 3%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 161 8 5% 169 195 26 15%Rt 44 - Easton 13 19 6 46% 13 22 9 69%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 37 2 6% 47 52 5 11%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 24 7 41% 18 28 10 56%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 342 37 12% 406 490 84 21%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 2 (2) -50% 5 2 (3) -60%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 459 53 13% 507 569 62 12%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 627 140 29% 541 709 168 31%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 525 199 61% 339 563 224 66%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 89 14 19% 93 105 12 13%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 71 12 20% 75 92 17 23%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 5,968 647 12% 6,263 7,131 868 14%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 51 17 50% 35 64 29 83%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 148 (24) -14% 211 173 (38) -18%

System Total 70,041 81,943 11,902 17% 81,595 97,893 16,298 20%

Combined Alternative 1 BRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Routes Impacted

by Corridor

Page 63: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 61

TSR (No Build)

Combined Alternative

1 BuildDelta Percent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Combined Alternative

1 BuildDelta Percent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (21,733) (33,617) Linked Trips 49,329 53,761 4,432 9.0% 57,872 64,277 6,405 11.1%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,699 32,116 1,417 4.6% 35,926 38,043 2,117 5.9%Speed (mph)*Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

Peak 7.5

Off-Peak 10

Peak 7.5

Off-Peak 10

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min) CBD to Worthington BRT Alternative

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)E Main/W Broad Alternative

Additional System Metrics2015 2040

Page 64: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 62

Combined Alternative #2 This alternative includes previously depicted alternatives. They are listed below:

W. Broad (BRT) N. High (LRT) Cleveland (BRT) E. Livingston BRT) E. Broad (BRT)

DRAFT 5/29/2017

TSR (No Build)

Combined Alternative

2 BuildDelta Percent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Combined Alternative

2 BuildDelta Percent

Delta

CMAX Upgrade - 6,135 6,135 - 8,330 8,330 Rt 303 - E Broad/W Broad BRT Alternative - 11,730 11,730 - 14,730 14,730 Rt 305 - East Livingston BRT Alternative - 5,885 5,885 - 7,481 7,481 Rt 308 - Downtown to Worthington via High - 10,163 10,163 - 12,071 12,071 Rt 403 - East Broad Feeder Route - 159 159 - 190 190 Rt 408 - Northern Feeder Route - 500 500 - 629 629 Rt 1 - Kenny/Livingston 6,855 4,258 (2,597) -38% 7,788 4,837 (2,951) -38%Rt 2 - E Main/N High 9,350 5,121 (4,229) -45% 10,716 5,947 (4,769) -45%Rt 6 - Cleveland/Sullivant 4,921 6,588 1,667 34% 6,238 8,144 1,906 31%Rt 10 - E Broad/W Broad 6,702 - (6,702) -100% 7,942 - (7,942) -100%Rt 101 - CMAX 5,321 - (5,321) -100% 6,263 - (6,263) -100%Rt 102 - N High/Polaris Parkway 1,786 - (1,786) -100% 2,003 - (2,003) -100%Rt 121 - CBUS 2,358 4,419 2,061 87% 2,870 5,708 2,838 99%Rt 3 - Northwest/Harrisburg 1,879 1,896 17 1% 2,176 2,243 67 3%Rt 4 - Indianola/Lockbourne 2,882 2,912 30 1% 3,251 3,212 (39) -1%Rt 5 - W 5Th Ave/Refugee 4,112 4,709 597 15% 4,776 5,475 699 15%Rt 7 - Mt. Vernon 1,868 1,918 50 3% 2,440 2,491 51 2%Rt 8 - Karl/S High 3,407 3,624 217 6% 3,879 4,172 293 8%Rt 9 - W Mound/Brentnell 2,121 2,282 161 8% 2,488 2,638 150 6%Rt 11 - Bryden/Maize 510 534 24 5% 693 710 17 2%Rt 12 - Mckinley/Fields 649 672 23 4% 951 998 47 5%Rt 13 - Arlington/1st 163 149 (14) -9% 189 169 (20) -11%Rt 21 - Hilliard Rome 526 373 (153) -29% 563 437 (126) -22%Rt 22 - OSU-Rickenbacker 1,914 1,711 (203) -11% 2,470 2,205 (265) -11%Rt 23 - James-Stelzer 2,491 2,651 160 6% 2,621 2,826 205 8%Rt 24 - Hamilton 1,836 2,079 243 13% 1,903 2,227 324 17%Rt 25 - Brice 422 485 63 15% 424 510 86 20%Rt 31 - Hudson 1,991 1,553 (438) -22% 2,260 1,710 (550) -24%Rt 32 - N Broadway 1,038 1,060 22 2% 1,106 1,156 50 5%Rt 33 - Henderson 636 712 76 12% 687 811 124 18%Rt 34 - Morse/Henderson 1,790 1,880 90 5% 1,970 2,131 161 8%Rt 35 - Dublin-Granville 334 367 33 10% 353 397 44 12%Rt 41 - Crosswoods-Polaris 61 76 15 25% 82 65 (17) -21%Rt 42 - Sharon Woods 28 34 6 21% 30 36 6 20%Rt 43 - Westerville 153 106 (47) -31% 169 116 (53) -31%Rt 44 - Easton 13 26 13 100% 13 26 13 100%Rt 45 - New Albany 35 73 38 109% 47 92 45 96%Rt 46 - Gahanna 17 21 4 24% 18 23 5 28%Rt 51 - Reynoldsburg 305 304 (1) 0% 406 361 (45) -11%Rt 52 - Canal Winchester 4 1 (3) -75% 5 1 (4) -80%Rt 61 - Grove City 406 429 23 6% 507 537 30 6%Rt 71 - Hilliard 487 725 238 49% 541 807 266 49%Rt 72 - Tuttle 326 428 102 31% 339 458 119 35%Rt 73 - Dublin 75 75 - 0% 93 89 (4) -4%Rt 74 - Smoky Row 59 57 (2) -3% 75 66 (9) -12%Rt 141 - Columbus Zoo 4 4 - 0% 4 4 - 0%Rt 151 - OSU-Airport 34 36 2 6% 35 46 11 31%Rt 152 - Airconnect-COTA Airconnect 172 92 (80) -47% 211 101 (110) -52%

System Total 70,041 89,012 18,971 27% 81,595 107,413 25,818 32%

Combined Alternative 2 BRT Alternative - STOPS Boardings Results

Route

2015 2040

Routes Impacted by

Corridor

Page 65: Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report July 2017 · 2017. 8. 22. · Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 2 1 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Central

Appendix I: STOPS Forecasting Methodology Report | 7/14/2017 | 63

TSR (No Build)

Combined Alternative

2 BuildDelta Percent

DeltaTSR (No

Build)

Combined Alternative

2 BuildDelta Percent

Delta

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT*) (44,847) (66,056) Linked Trips 49,328 58,193 8,865 18.0% 57,872 70,059 12,187 21.1%

0-Car Linked Trips 30,699 33,738 3,039 9.9% 35,926 40,095 4,169 11.6%Speed (mph) - *Assumed Auto Occupancy of 1.2

S of SR161 7.5N of SR161 15S of SR161 10N of SR161 20

Peak 10

Off-Peak 12

Peak 8

Off-Peak 12

Peak 7.5

Off-Peak 10Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)CBD to Worthington LRT Alternative

Additional System Metrics2015 2040

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)CMAX Upgrade

Peak

Off-Peak

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)Broad St Alternative

Proposed Operating Frequencies (min)E livingston Alternative