Appendix K Part 2 - Florida Disaster€¦ · Planning Summit: Post Disaster Redevelopment Planning and Beyond . July 10-11, 2012 : 1201 Riverplace Blvd Jacksonville, FL 32207 South

Appendix K: Sea Level Rise Compendium August 2013

State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan

Introduction

The 2010 State Hazard Mitigation Plan (SHMP) included a specific objective related to researching sea level rise The former objective 4.3 was worded to say, “Monitor climate change and sea level rise research; create a compendium of existing studies and data.” For this reason, the State Hazard Mitigation Plan Advisory Team (SHMPAT) began focusing efforts related to sea level rise over the last three years,

The Department of Economic Opportunity (DEO) was able to secure funding to allocate

towards accomplishing objective 4.3. As a part of their efforts, a focus group of subject matter experts was established to share sea level rise documents and information. The result of their research can be found within this compendium. The Division of Emergency Management (DEM) is part of DEO’s sea level rise focus group and has kept track of the sea level rise efforts that staff has taken part in over the last three years. DEM activities have been included within this appendix, prior to the start of the compendium.

Moving forward, the SHMPAT will continue to address sea level rise and will expand

efforts to include climate change. Goal 4 of the 2013 SHMP states that the SHMPAT will, “Support mitigation initiatives and policies that protect the state’s cultural, economic, and natural resources.” As a part of achieving the goal, objective 4.5 reads, “Participate in climate change and sea level rise research that will further the state and local government’s ability to plan for and mitigate the impacts of future vulnerability.” It is the goal of the SHMPAT to include as much relevant information on this topic as possible in future mitigation plans, and to share it with the communities that will be greatly impacted by such changes. We have seen significant increases in the amount of information available in the last three years and expect that much more will become available during the interim period.



Participation in Sea Level Rise and Climate Change Activities by DEM Mitigation Staff

Title When was it? Where was it? Who hosted it? Synopsis

Attended presentation about sea level rise February 2, 2011 Tallahassee, FL Julie Dennis, DCA

planner

Presented by Julie Dennis, DCA planner with special interest in

Waterfronts FL program

Coordination meeting April 4, 2011 Tallahassee, FL DCA (DEO) and DEM

To discuss coordination between DCA (DEO) and DEM on a grant to

study sea level rise/ coastal adaptation

Meeting to coordinate with DEO on coastal adaptation grant work

January 5, 2012 Tallahassee, FL DEO and DEM Meeting to coordinate with DEO on coastal adaptation grant work

Community Resiliency Webinar June 25, 2012 Webinar GOMA To learn about community resiliency

and climate change in coastal areas

Attended NOAA's Social Coast webinar July 11, 2012 Webinar NOAA To learn about community resiliency

and climate change in coastal areas

Sea Level Rise Workshop August 9, 2012 Tallahassee, FL

Florida Sea Grant, and Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve

The workshop discussed the basic elements of sea level rise and the

effect that it will have on our coasts and property.

"Legal Issues in Coastal Change"

workshop August 9, 2012 Tallahassee, FL

Florida Sea Grant, and Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve

Workshop to discuss ramifications of coastal changes (climate change/

sea level rise) on property rights




FEMA Region IV Coastal Outreach Coordination Call

August 12, 2012 NA FEMA Region IV Discussing the best practices and lessons of coastal discovery.

Attended DEO presentation on

climate change grant activity

September 24, 2012 Tallahassee, FL DEO Update on grant activities & needs

Coastal Community Resiliency

September 14, 2012 Naples, FL

Florida chapter of the American

Planning Association annual

conference

There was a session on planning for community resiliency where a panel

discussed some of the planning efforts around the state pertaining to climate change and specifically sea level rise. Also discussed some of the potential impacts Florida could

see from sea level rise on infrastructure, as well as some legal issues pertaining to planning and sea

level rise.

Florida Climate Institute Experts on

Sea Level Rise Mitigation

November 16, 2012 Tallahassee, FL Florida Climate

Institute

Highly respected researchers from Florida universities came to voice their opinion on their research and

potential mitigation measures for sea level rise.

Long Term Recovery Planning Summit:

Post Disaster Redevelopment

Planning and Beyond

July 10-11, 2012

1201 Riverplace Blvd

Jacksonville, FL 32207

South Atlantic Alliance (Florida,

Georgia, North Carolina and South

Carolina)

Provided an overview of Florida's PDRP Initiative and learn from other

recovery efforts. Also discuss pre-disaster planning for long- term

recovery.




Coastal Community Resiliency Focus

Groups

July 26, 2012 August 16, 2012 October 3, 2012

NA DEO/ DEM Coastal

Community Resiliency

Focus group calls to talk about prevalent community resiliency topics. Academic and planning

research was applied.

Risk and Response: Sea Level Rise

Summit June 20-22, 2012 Boca Raton, FL

Florida Atlantic University Sea

Level Rise Summit

Sessions and discussions held to create a portfolio of lessons learned

and a stimulus for further insight and action in new policies and initiatives

concerning sea level rise.

Governors South Atlantic Alliance

Conference

September 6-7, 2012 Charleston, SC Governors South

Atlantic Alliance

Governors from the south-eastern states gathered to discuss proactive

activities to encompass planning and mitigation strategies for sea level

rise.



HowCountries,States,andFloridaAddressSeaLevelRise

ACompendiumofClimateAdaptationResearch

Florida Department of Economic Opportunity

11/15/2012



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State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan ii

ContentsFLORIDA:GENERALRESEARCH&PLANNING..........................................................................................................................1

Preparing for a Sea Change in Florida ................................................................................................................................. 1

Florida: Public Opinion on Climate Change......................................................................................................................... 2

Florida and Climate Change: The Costs of Inaction ............................................................................................................ 3

Climate Change and Land Use in Florida, Interdependencies and Opportunities .............................................................. 4

Keeping Our Heads above Water: Surviving the Challenges of SLR in Florida .................................................................... 5

SLR Ready: Model Comprehensive Plan Goals, Objectives, and Policies to Address SLR Impacts in Florida ..................... 6

Florida’s Energy and Climate Change Action Plan .............................................................................................................. 7

Climate Change in Coastal Areas in Florida: Sea Level Rise Estimations & Economic Analysis to Year 2080 ..................... 8

Florida Department of Transportation ............................................................................................................................... 9

Adaptive Response Planning to Sea Level Rise in Florida and

Implications for Comprehensive and Public‐Facilities Planning ....................................................................................... 11

Initial Estimates of the Ecological and Economic Consequences of Sea Level Rise on the Florida Keys

through the year 2100 ...................................................................................................................................................... 13

Climate Change and the FL Keys ....................................................................................................................................... 14

Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan ................................................................................................................... 15

Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Change in Southern Florida’s Greater Everglades Landscape .................... 16

Climate Change Action Plan for the Florida Reef System 2010‐2015 ............................................................................... 17

Ecological Effects of SLR in the Florida Panhandle and Coastal Alabama ......................................................................... 18

Retrospective and Prospective Model Simulations of SLR Impacts on Gulf of Mexico

Coastal Marshes and Forests in Waccasassa Bay, Florida ................................................................................................ 19

Bursting the Bubble of Doom and Adapting to SLR .......................................................................................................... 20

Integrated Modeling for the Assessment of Ecological Impacts of SLR ............................................................................ 21

Effects of Climate Change on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources ............................................................................. 22

Assessment of Redefining Florida’s Coastal High Hazard Area ......................................................................................... 23

Florida’s Resilient Coasts: A State Policy Framework for Adaptation to Climate Change ................................................ 24

FLORIDACITIES................................................................................................................................................................................25

City of Punta Gorda Adaptation plan ................................................................................................................................ 25

City of Satellite Beach ....................................................................................................................................................... 26

Municipal Adaptation to SLR – Satellite Beach ................................................................................................................. 27

Yankeetown, FL ................................................................................................................................................................. 28


State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan iii

FLORIDACOUNTIES&REGIONS.................................................................................................................................................29

Lee County Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment ..................................................................................................... 29

Lee County Climate Change and Resiliency Strategy ........................................................................................................ 30

Sarasota County, FL: Current and Future Vulnerability to Hurricane Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise ............................ 31

Sarasota, FL: Influence of Potential Sea Level Rise on Societal Vulnerability to Hurricanes Storm‐surge Hazards,

Sarasota County, FL ........................................................................................................................................................... 32

Planning for SLR and Hurricane Storm Surge in Sarasota County .................................................................................... 33

Sea Level Rise in the Tampa Bay Region ........................................................................................................................... 34

Land Use Impacts and Solutions to SLR in East Central Florida ........................................................................................ 35

Climate Change and Sea‐Level Rise in Florida .................................................................................................................. 36

Charlotte Harbor Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment ............................................................................ 37

Comprehensive SW FL/Charlotte Harbor Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment ...................................................... 38

Sea Level Rise in the Treasure Coast Region ..................................................................................................................... 39

South Florida Water Management District ....................................................................................................................... 40

Developing a Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Framework for South Florida ......................................................................... 41

South Florida SLR Project .................................................................................................................................................. 42

Past and Projected Trends in Climate and Sea Level for South Florida ............................................................................ 43

Florida Forever Work Plan ................................................................................................................................................ 44

Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact ...................................................................................................... 45

A Unified Sea Level Rise Projection for Southeast Florida ................................................................................................ 46

Development of an Adaptation Toolbox to Protect Southeast Florida Water Supplies from Climate Change ................ 47

U.S.STATES.........................................................................................................................................................................................48

California ........................................................................................................................................................................... 48

Hazard Mitigation Plan .................................................................................................................................................. 48

CA Climate Change Regulation ...................................................................................................................................... 49

2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy Report to the Governor ........................................................................ 50

Sea Level Rise Adaptation Strategy for San Diego Bay ................................................................................................. 52

Goleta Beach 2.0: Managed Retreat to Mitigate Coastal Erosion ................................................................................ 53

San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission ................................................................................. 54

Chula Vista, California: Adaptation Planning with No Budget and No Experience ....................................................... 55

Delaware ........................................................................................................................................................................... 56

The City of Lewes: Hazard Mitigation and Climate Adaptation Action Plan ................................................................. 56

Preparing for SLR Development of a SLR Initiative ....................................................................................................... 57


State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan iv

Development of a Coastal Resiliency Action Plan for Bowers Beach, DE ..................................................................... 59

Georgia .............................................................................................................................................................................. 60

SLR On GA’s Coast: A Study from the River .................................................................................................................. 60

Tybee Island .................................................................................................................................................................. 61

Louisiana ........................................................................................................................................................................... 62

Recommendations for Anticipating Sea‐Level Rise Impacts on LA Coastal Resources during Project Planning and

Design ............................................................................................................................................................................ 62

Maryland ........................................................................................................................................................................... 63

Commission on Climate Change ................................................................................................................................... 63

Maryland’s Coastal Zone Enhancement Plan: Coastal Zone Management Act Section 309 Assessment and Strategy

2011‐2015 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 64

Massachusetts................................................................................................................................................................... 65


New Hampshire ................................................................................................................................................................. 66

Keene, New Hampshire: The Economics of Energy Efficiency ...................................................................................... 66

New York ........................................................................................................................................................................... 67


North Carolina ................................................................................................................................................................... 68


North Carolina Sea‐Level Rise Assessment Report ....................................................................................................... 69

North Carolina DENR Climate Change Initiative Strategy Framework .......................................................................... 71

Oregon .............................................................................................................................................................................. 73

Oregon Global Warming Commission: Report to the Legislature 2011 ....................................................................... 73

South Carolina ................................................................................................................................................................... 74

Shoreline Change Initiative ........................................................................................................................................... 74

Texas ................................................................................................................................................................................. 75


Washington ....................................................................................................................................................................... 76


Preparing for a Changing Climate: Washington State’s Integrated Climate Response Strategy .................................. 77

Olympia, Washington: Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise from Climate Change ................................................................. 78

COUNTRIES.........................................................................................................................................................................................79

Australia ............................................................................................................................................................................ 79


State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan v

Queensland Coastal Plan .............................................................................................................................................. 79

Canada .............................................................................................................................................................................. 80

Halifax Climate SMART: The Climate Sustainable Mitigation and Adaptation Risk Toolkit .......................................... 80

Tasmania ........................................................................................................................................................................... 81

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Mangrove Systems ...................................... 81

MISCELLANEOUS..............................................................................................................................................................................82

FEMA Climate Change Adaptation Policy Statement ....................................................................................................... 82

Incorporating Sea Level Change Scenarios at the Local Level .......................................................................................... 83

Protecting the Public Interest through the National Coastal Zone Management Program: How Coastal States and

Territories Use No‐Build Areas along Ocean and Great Lake Shorefronts ....................................................................... 84

An Assessment: Policy Tools for Local Adaptation to SLR ................................................................................................ 85

Adapting to Climate Change: A Planning Guide for State Coastal Managers ................................................................... 86

Increasing Community Resilience to Future Hurricane Storm Surge ................................................................................ 87

Effects of Near‐term SLR on Coastal Infrastructure .......................................................................................................... 88

Implications of Takings Law on Innovative Planning For Sea Level Rise in The Gulf of Mexico ....................................... 89

A Parameterized Climate Change Projection Model for Hurricane Flooding, Wave Action, Economic Damages, and

Population Dynamics ........................................................................................................................................................ 90

World Resources 2010‐2011: Decision Making in a Changing Climate – Adaptation Challenged and Choices ............... 91

State and Local Governments Plan for Development of Most Land Vulnerable to Rising Sea Level along the US Atlantic

Coast ................................................................................................................................................................................. 92

Hotspot of Accelerated Sea‐Level Rise on the Atlantic Coast of North America .............................................................. 93

SLRHORIZONYEARANDPROJECTIONSTABLE....................................................................................................................94

SLRPROJECTIONSGRAPH.............................................................................................................................................................95


State of Florida Enhanced Hazard Mitigation Plan 1

FLORIDA:GENERALRESEARCH&PLANNING

PreparingforaSeaChangeinFloridaFlorida Coastal and Ocean Coalition

ThisreportbytheFloridaCoastalandOceanCoalitiondetailshowclimatechangecouldimpactthestate'scoastalareas,anditbroadlyoutlinespossibleadaptationsolutions.Itisintendedtoprovideguidelinesforconcrete,science‐basedactiononthecriticalissuesFloridafacesinlightofclimatechangeandtostimulateinformeddebateforthepreservationofFlorida'snaturalresources.

Fourprimarycategoriesofimpactsarediscussed:sea‐levelrise,extremeweatherevents,higheroceantemperatures,andoceanacidification.Thepotentialeffectsofsea‐levelrisearefullydescribed,includingbeacherosion,saltwaterintrusion,andthesubmersionofmarshesandcoastalproperty.Discussionsofextremeweathereventsincludeseverity,alteringwaterflows,exacerbatingrunoff,anddamagingcoastalhabitats.Foreachofthefourimpactareas,recommendationsareoutlinedforstateandlocalgovernmentresponses,includingspecificagencyactions,aswellasregionalandfederalresponses.

TheFloridaCoastalandOceanCoalitionisagroupofenvironmentalorganizationsworkingtogethertoconserve,protectandrestoreFlorida’scoastalandmarineenvironment.Memberorganizationsincludethefollowing:CaribbeanConservationCorporation,EnvironmentalDefenseFund,GulfRestorationNetwork,NaturalResourcesDefenseCouncil,NationalWildlifeFederation,OceanConservancy,ReefRelief,andtheSurfriderFoundation.

Source:http://www.flcoastalandocean.org/PreparingforaSeaChange/Climate_Change_Guide_for_Florida_Preparing_for_a_Sea_Change.pdf



Florida:PublicOpiniononClimateChange

I. LeadAgencies

a. YaleSchoolofForestryandEnvironmentalStudies

b. UniversityofMiami

c. NationalScienceFoundation

d. ColumbiaUniversityCenterforResearchonEnvironmentalDecisions

II. Projectdescription

a. ThegoalofthestudywastomeasuretheperceptionsofFloridaresidentsaboutthecausesandconsequencesofclimatechange,andaboutpotentialsolutions.Themainfindingsarepresentedinthisreportandareintendedtoaidpolicymakers,educators,theprivatesector,andenvironmentalorganizationsintheirplanningeffortsinresponsetoclimatechange.

Source:

http://environment.yale.edu/uploads/FloridaGlobalWarmingOpinion.pdf



FloridaandClimateChange:TheCostsofInaction

I. Location:TuftsUniversity

II. LeadAgencies

a. GlobalDevelopmentandenvironmentinstitute

b. Stockholmenvironmentinstitute–USCenter

III. ProjectDescription

a. Thereportisthefirstdetailedanalysisonthepotentialconsequencesofcontinuedclimatechangeforthestate’seconomy.Thereportconcludesthat,ifleftunchecked,climatechangewillsignificantlyharmFlorida’seconomyinthenextseveraldecades,andthatimpactsonjustthreesectors–tourism,electricutilities,andrealestate–togetherwitheffectsofhurricaneswouldshrinkFlorida’sGrossStateProductby5%bytheendofthiscentury.

Source:

http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/rp/Florida_hr.pdf?bcsi_scan_EAC41357C45D053C=0&bcsi_scan_f



ClimateChangeandLandUseinFlorida,InterdependenciesandOpportunities

I. LeadAgencies

a. CenturyCommissionforaSustainableFlorida

b. UF

II. ProjectDescription

a. ThisreportshowsthatlanduseandclimatechangeinFloridaaredeterministicallylinkedissues.Changesinlanduseoverthenextdecadecanadverselyaffectclimatechange,whileclimatechangeitselfwillaltertheformandfunctionofthelandscape.WithitsburgeoninggrowthFloridastandsatacrossroadswithrespecttoitsoptionsforclimatemitigationandadaptation.Failuretodevelopandimplementappropriateplansforproactiveadaptationcouldcostbillionsinlostrevenue,whileendangeringthehealthandwellbeingofourchildren,grandchildrenandbeyond.Alternatively,tremendousopportunityexistsforeconomicdevelopmentthroughlandmanagementforclimatemitigationandparticipationincarbonmarkets.Whilealladverseeffectsofglobalwarmingcannotbeavoidedthroughmitigation,proactiveadaptationcanconferresiliencetomanagedandnaturalecosystems,whilecreatingjobsandopportunitiesforenhancingthewellbeingofFloridians.

Source:

http://snre.ufl.edu/home/files/Climate%20change%20and%20land%20use%20in%20Florida%20V8‐1s.pdf



KeepingOurHeadsaboveWater:SurvivingtheChallengesofSLRinFlorida

I. LeadAgencies

a. FloridaInstituteforConservationScience

b. TheNatureConservancy

c. FloridaNativePlantSociety

d. U.S.FishandWildlifeService

e. TheJelksFamilyFoundation

f. Disney'sAnimalKingdom


a. TheFloridaInstituteforConservationSciencehasinitiatedaprojecttostudyandcommunicateissuesrelatedtotheimpactsof(andadaptationto)sealevelriseinFlorida.Thefirstphaseofthisprojectincludedascientificsymposium,whichwasheldJanuary18‐20,2010,atArchboldBiologicalStation.ThismeetingbroughttogetherscholarsfromseveraldisciplinestoshareinformationonsealevelriseanditsimpactsinFloridaandtodeveloprecommendationsforfurtherresearchandforchangesinpolicyandmanagement.Futurephasesofthisprojectincludetechnicalpublications,communicationswithpolicymakersandthepublic,andalargerconferencefocusedonpolicyandmanagementandinvolvingadiversityofstakeholdersanddecisionmakers.ThelatterconferenceistentativelyscheduledforAugust2010atFairchildTropicalBotanicGardeninMiami.

Source:

http://flconservationscience.org/programs/symposiums.html



SLRReady:ModelComprehensivePlanGoals,Objectives,andPoliciestoAddressSLRImpactsinFlorida

I. LeadAgencies

a. UFConservationClinic

b. FloridaSeaGrant

c. CharlotteHarborNationalEstuaryProgram


a. Thepurposeistopresentselectedmodelcomprehensiveplanninggoals,objectives,andpolicies(GOP's)toaddresssealevelriseadaptationinahypotheticalcity/countyinFlorida(SouthwestFlorida).

Source:www.flseagrant.org/coastalplanning/wpcontent/uploads/2012/03/sea_level_rise_Cons.Clinic_2010_v.2.pdf



Florida’sEnergyandClimateChangeActionPlan

I. PrincipleconclusionsfromtheActionTeamProcessa. Florida’sresources,communities,andeconomyareexpectedtoexperiencesignificantimpactsif

thecurrenttrajectoryofglobalgreenhousegasemissionsisnotreversedb. Earlyactionstoaddressglobalclimatechangehassignificantenergysecuritybenefitsfor

Floridians,whilepositioningthestatetobecomearegionalandhemispherichubofgreentechnologyinnovationandinvestment

c. Energyefficiency,demand‐sidemanagement,andenergyconservationpresentfloridawithnumerousopportunitiestoreduceenergycosts,increasethebuyingpowerofFlorida’sfamilies,andmakethestate’sbusinesssectormorecost‐competitiveintheglobalmarket

d. Investmentstodayinlow‐carbonenergysourceswillstimulateFlorida’seconomyandredirectcurrentexpendituresonimportedfossilfuelstowardFlorida‐basedenergysourcesretainingsignificantflowsofmoneywithinlocaleconomies

e. Market‐orientedregulations–manyalreadyauthorizedinFloridalaw–willefficientlyguidealow‐carboneconomywhileprotectingenergyconsumers,maintainingFlorida’sagriculturalcompetitiveness,andbuildingmoresustainablecommunities

II. Phase2a. Provides50separatepolicyrecommendations,plusanadditionalsetofcommentstowardthe

currentregulatoryworktodevelopFlorida’scap‐and‐tradeprogramtoreduceharmfulgreenhousegasemissions

b. ThetotalnetcostsavingsofallActionTeamrecommendationscombinedismorethan$28billionfrom2009‐2025

c. Theactionteamrecommends50policyactionsrelatingto:i. Energysupplyanddemandii. Transportationandlanduseiii. Agriculture,forestry,andwastemanagementiv. Governmentpolicyandcoordinationv. Adaptationstrategiesassociatedwithclimatechange

Source:http://www.flclimatechange.us/ewebeditpro/items/O12F20136.PDF



ClimateChangeinCoastalAreasinFlorida:SeaLevelRiseEstimations&EconomicAnalysistoYear2080

Funded by National Commission on Energy Policy and Reported by FSU

InthisreporttheresultsofdownscaledmodelingeffortsoftheeffectofsealevelriseonsixcoastalcountiesinFloridaarepresented,including:Dade,Dixie,Duval,Escambia,MonroeandWakullacounties.Additionally,assessmentsofthepotentialeconomicimpactsthatthisphenomenoncouldhavearepresented.Usingrepresentativestorms,estimatesareprovidedofthedamagethatcouldbeinflictedfromstormsurgeandflooding,bothofwhichwillbecomemoreintenseandmorefrequentasaconsequenceofclimatechange.Thevalueofthelandthatwillbeaffectedbytheseintensifiedeventswasusedtoprovidethebasisfortheeconomicassessment.

Thisisthescientificassessmentreportthatsupportsthesynthesizedbrief"ClimateChangeinCoastalFlorida‐EconomicImpactsofSea‐LevelRise,"publishedbytheNationalCommissiononEnergyPolicy.

Source:http://www.manatee.wateratlas.usf.edu/upload/documents/FSU%208%2014%202008%20final.pdf



FloridaDepartmentofTransportationDevelopment of a Methodology for the Assessment of Sea Level Rise Impacts on Florida’s Transportation

Modes and Infrastructure

ThepurposeofthisreportistoprovideamethodologyforassessingtheimpactsofSLRonFLtransportationinfrastructureforplanningpurposes.ResearchwasconductedbyFAUbyaDOTgrant.ScopeoftheprojectincludesasummaryofglobalandstateobservationsandprojectionsofSLR,adiscussionofthemethodologyusedindevelopingconsensusonSLRinSoutheastFL,arecommendedmethodologyforprojectingSLRinFL,andidentifyingpotentiallyvulnerableinfrastructure,globaltoregionaldownscalingapproaches,anddatagapsinexistingSLRscientificknowledge.

I. Methodology

a. FAUrecommendsusingtheUSArmyCorpsofEngineers(USACE)guidanceforforecastingSLRinFL

b. Considersscenariosofpossiblefutureratesofmeansealevelchangeovervariousplanninghorizons

c. IncludesmapsfromPortEverglades,DaniaBeach,andothers

II. SEFLRegionalClimateChangeCompactConsensusProjections

a. PlanningHorizon:

i. 2030=3‐7SLRininches(low‐high)

ii. 2060=9‐24SLRininches

III. FAUResearchtechniques

a. FAUusedtheWeissOverpeck1‐meterSLRprojectionforFLtoillustrateadownscalingtechniquedevelopedtoidentifypotentiallyvulnerabletransportationinfrastructure

b. FAUresearchersappliedtheevaluationtechniquestoDaniaBeach,PuntaGorda,andKeyLargo,FL.

c. ResearchincludesadiscussionofthepotentialimpactsofSLRtotransportationinfrastructure,includingdrainage,roadwaybase,andsurfacewaterimpacts,andasummaryofadaptationstrategiesandtools

d. SLEgenerallyuseSatellitealtimetryandtidaldata

e. TwomaintypesofdatausedforlandanalysisinSLRstudiesareLiDARandcontourDEMs(DigitalElevationModel)

IV. Short‐termrecommendedactions

a. DevelopingasketchplanningtooltoapplytheUSACEmethodologytoproducestatewideandregionalprojectionsofSLRanddownscalingtechniquestoidentifyandassesspotentiallyvulnerableinfrastructure

i. Downscalingevaluationapproach=4stepprocess

ii. StateSLRprojections

1. IntegrationofFDOTstateroadwaydataandStateSLRProjectionsfortheyears2030,2060,and2100usingUSACEmethodology

2. Preliminaryidentificationofstateroadsegmentspotentiallyvulnerabletoa3ftofSLR

3. Creationofinventoryofpotentiallyvulnerablestateroadways

iii. RegionalSLRprojections



1. Evaluateroadwayswithmoredetailedtopographicinformation

2. IntegrationofregionalFDOTstateroadwaysdataandlowresolutionLiDARdata

3. Evaluationofcurrentandyear2100topographicconditions

4. IdentificationofspecificroadwaysectionspotentiallyvulnerabletoSLR

iv. LocalizedSLRprojections

1. IntegrationofregionalFDOTstateroadwaysdataandhighresolutionLiDARdata

2. Evaluationofyear2100topographicalconditionsofspecificroadwaylinks/identificationofspecificroadwaysectionspotentiallyvulnerabletoSLR

v. OnTheGround(OTG)evaluation

1. Verificationofvulnerabilityusingconstructiondrawings&surveydata

V. Long‐termrecommendedactions

a. Developingano‐regretsandgradualadaptivemanagementstrategyintransportationplanningandintegratingSLRprojectionswithgroundwater,surfacewater,andstormsurgemodelstobetterassessthevulnerabilitiesoftransportationmodesandinfrastructure

VI. DataGaps

a. Datatounderstandlandformsandwhereandhowwaterwillflow

b. Monitoringdataandenvironmentaldrivers

c. ConsistentSLRscenariosandprojectionsacrossagenciestosupportlocalplanning

d. DatatocharacterizevulnerabilitiesandimpactsofSLR

e. Communitycharacteristics–dataondemographics,societalvulnerabilities,economicactivity,publicattitudesandunderstandingofrisks,etc

f. Legalframeworkandadministrativestructure

VII. Toolsneededforadaptationandplanningoftransportationinfrastructure

a. Communicationtoolsforstakeholderengagement,visioning,andconsensusbuilding

b. ToolstomonitorandmodelcurrentandfutureratesofSLR

c. Visualizationandscenario‐buildingtools

d. Implementationtoolstobuildinstitutionalcapacityandimplementadaptationplans

e. Interagencycoordinationonresearch,policyagendas,andfundingareneededtoprovidethepackageofdata,tools,andprocesses

f. Regionalcoordinationoftransportationplanning

g. GISmapsastoolstoidentifyinfrastructurepotentiallyatriskfromSLR

Source:

http://www.dot.state.fl.us/research‐center/Completed_Proj/Summary_PL/FDOT_BDK79_977‐01_rpt.pdf



AdaptiveResponsePlanningtoSeaLevelRiseinFloridaandImplicationsforComprehensiveandPublic‐FacilitiesPlanning

I. Background

a. WewillexperienceSLRforcenturiesifnotmillenniabecauseofthelaginachievingtemperatureequilibriumbetweentheatmosphereandtheoceans

b. ThelongtimescalesofSLRsuggestthatcoastalmanagement,includingspatialplanning,needstotakealong‐termviewonadaptationtoSLRandclimatechange,especiallywithlong‐lifeinfrastructure

c. Areasthatarenotbuildoutarewhereotheroptions(besidesprotections)maybefeasible

d. RecentlypublishedprojectionsofSLRby2100relativetoapproximately1990rangefromlessthan1foottomorethan15feet

i. Basedonanalysisofcurrenttrendsorderivedfromanarrayofscenariosandmodelprojectionsbuildondifferentassumptionsaboutfuturegreenhousegasemissions

II. PurposeandFocus

a. FocusonimplicationsofSLRonplanningandmanagementof3majorelementsoflocalinfrastructure

i. Watersupplysystemsthatdrawfromaquifersorsurfacewatersclosetothecoast

ii. Centralizedwastewatermanagementsystemslocatedinlow‐lyingareasnearthecoast,includingthosewithsurfacewaterdischargesoftreatedwastewater

iii. Highways,bridges,andcausewaysincoastalareas

b. Interestwiththestateofadaptiveresponseplanningforsuchinfrastructure

III. RegionalConsideration

a. Differencesinbothrelativeandeustaticsealevelobservations

b. LocallandsubsidenceorupliftareprimarilyresponsiblefordifferencesinobservedSL

c. Regionalvariationsinwindpatternsandoceancurrents,aswellasseawatertemperature,salinity,anddensity,alsomayaffectobservedratesofeustaticSLR

IV. PotentialImpacts

a. 4majorimpacts

i. Inundationandshorelinerecession

ii. Increasedfloodingfromsevereweatherevents

iii. Saltwatercontaminationofgroundwaterandsurfacewatersupplies

iv. Elevatedcoastalgroundwatertables

b. Fora1‐footriseinSL,theshorewillrecedeby50‐100feet

c. Infrastructurethatliesinthepathofshorelinerecessionmaybeadverselyaffectedinseveralways

i. Intermittentfloodingfromspringtides

ii. Scouringandunderminingofabove‐groundfacilities,roadbases,andbridgeabutments

iii. Interferewithnavigationunderbridgesandmayincreasetheexposureofbridgestosaltwaterspraywithresultantincreasesinspallingofconcreteandmorerapidcorrosionofsteelbridgecomponentsandrebarinolderbridges

iv. Asfloodzonesshifthigherandfurtherlandward,facilitiespreviouslysitedinwhatwereconsideredtobesafezones,mayexperiencefloodsformerlyclassifiedas100‐yearevents



v. Structuresdesignedtowithstandtheforceofstormwavesandmovingfloodwatersofagivenintensitywillbemorelikelytobesubjectedtostrongerforces

V. Adaptiveresponseoptions

a. 3categories:protection,retreat,andaccommodation

i. HighlydevelopedcoastlineswillbeprotectedfromSLRwithacombinationofhardandsoftengineeringmeasures

b. Protection

i. Thephysicalmeasuresthatcanbeusedtoprotectdevelopedareasfromerosionandinundationincludeconstructionoffloodprotectionworks,beachnourishment,dunebuilding,andmarshbuilding

c. Retreat

i. “rollingeasement”underwhichhumanactivitiesarerequiredtoyieldtherightofwaytonaturallymigratingshorelines

ii. FLlawempowersthestateDEPtorequiretheadjustment,alteration,orremovalofanystructurethatintrudesontosovereigntylandsofthestatebelowthemeanhighwaterlineofanytidalwaterbody

1. Theagencyhasrarely,ifever,invokedthisauthority

iii. Questionofwhattodowithinfrastructurethreatenedbyinundationandshorelinerecession

d. Accommodation

i. SLRcanbeaccommodatedovertheshorttermbyelevatingstructuresand/orthelanduponwhichtheyarebuilt

ii. Longer‐termSLEaccommodationwillrequiredirectingnewdevelopmentawayfromareasthatareanticipatedtobeaffectedbyinundation,shorelinerecession,andadvancingcoastalfloodboundaries

1. Setbacks

iii. Prohibitdevelopmentinlargerhazardzonesthatareandwillbesusceptibletobothshorelineandcoastalstormflooding

VI. Statepolicies

a. 35stateshavepreparedorareintheprocessofpreparingclimateactionplansconcernedwithmitigatinggreenhousegasemissions

b. 6states(AZ,CA,MD,NC,OR,andWA)explicitlydoorwilladdressclimatechangeadaptationinthoseplans

VII. FLPlanning/PolicyFindings

a. Therearenoexplicitrequirementsthatstate,regional,orlocalplanningentitiesaddressSLRinlanduseorinfrastructureplanning

b. StatutoryplanningtimeframesaregenerallytooshorttodirectlyencompassSLRimpacts

c. ThereareprovisionswithintheseplanningframeworksthatofferappropriatecontextswithinwhichSLRadaptiveresponseplanningcouldbeaddressed

Source:

http://www.coss.fsu.edu/durp/sites/coss.fsu.edu.durp/files/WPS_08_02_Deyle.pdf



InitialEstimatesoftheEcologicalandEconomicConsequencesofSeaLevelRiseontheFloridaKeysthroughtheyear2100

I. Method

a. FutureshorelinelocationsanddistributionsofmajorhabitatsofBigPineKeyintheyear2100wereestimatedusingsealevelrisescenariosdescribedinthescientificliterature

b. Ineveryscenariotheislandbecamesmaller,marineandintertidalhabitatmovesupslopeattheexpenseofuplandhabitat,andpropertyvaluesarediminished;Inundationwoulddisplacenativespeciesdependentonuplandhabitatandthreatenproperty

c. UseofLIDARandSLAMM

d. Scenarios

i. 1:18cm,best‐case:$11billioninpropertyvalueand58,800acresareatriskofinundation

ii. 2:35cm

iii. 3:59cm

iv. 4:100cm

v. 5:140cm

II. Results/recommendations

a. Needtoidentifylong‐termimpactsofSLRontheFLkeysandtobegintakingnear‐termstepstominimizethenegativeconsequencesofthoseimpacts

b. Approachforprotectingnaturalareasandecosystems

i. Identificationof“coreareas”withthebestchancesofpersistenceduringSLR

ii. Intensivemanagementofcoreareastominimizelossofbiodiversity

iii. En‐situconservation,includingrelocationofvulnerablespeciestolessvulnerableareas

c. Identifyingcoreareas

i. Elevation

ii. Representation

iii. Replication

iv. Connectivity

v. Effectivemanagement

III. “Noregrets”strategyformanagingFloridaKeysnaturalareasforSLR

a. Firemanagement

i. SLRisexpectedtoaccelerateforestsuccession,andthecarefulapplicationofprescribedfireistheonlyeconomicallyviableandecologicallyappropriateantidotetothatsuccession

b. Invasiveexoticspeciesmanagement

c. Wetlandrestoration

i. Filingorpluggingditchesmaybeessentialtopreventunnaturallyrapidinfiltrationofinteriorwetland,transitional,anduplandhabitatsbysaltwater

ii. Restoringhydrologicalconnectivitybyremovingobsoleteroadbedsandinstallingculvertsunderfunctionalroads

Source:http://frrp.org/SLR%20documents/FINAL%20‐%20Aug%2021%20‐WITH%20COVER.pdf



ClimateChangeandtheFLKeys

I. LeadAgencies

a. NOAA

b. SocioeconomicResearchandMonitoringProgram

c. FloridaKeysNationalMarineSanctuaryProgram


a. Thestudyprovidesalternativeestimates,usingscenario‐planningtechniques,ofthemedium‐andlong‐termsocioeconomiceffectsthatmayarisefromclimatechangeintheFloridaKeys.Theresearchersusedfourglobalscenariosfroma2000reportbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC);however,thescenariosfortheKeyswereupdatedbasedonscientificdevelopmentssince2000.ProjectionsfortheKeysweredevelopedforeachscenariolookingatpopulationtrends,income,remainingland,coralcover,andtotalincome.Aseriesofpolicyrecommendationsareincludedattheconclusionofthereport.

Source:http://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/science/socioeconomic/floridakeys/climate_change/welcome.html



ComprehensiveEvergladesRestorationPlan

I. Predictionsa. Modelsestimatethatsealevelcouldriseby3‐5feetwhichcouldjeopardizeanestimated13.5

millionpeoplethatlivewithin25milesofshorelineII. LeadAgencies

a. USArmyCorpsofEngineersb. SouthFloridaWaterManagementDistrict

III. CERPa. Outlinesaframeworktoguidetherestoration,protection,andpreservationofthewaterresources

ofcentralandsouthernFloridab. OneofthemaingoalsofCERPistoredirect1.7billiongallonsoffreshwateradayintotheareas

thatneeditthemost,suchastheEvergladesc. ApprovedbyCongressandawarded$7.8billiondollarsoffundingforprojects.

IV. Purposea. CERPClimateChangeTeamwascreatedwithavisionto“minimizefuturenegativeimpactsand

adaptationcosts…[bycollaborating]toquicklyidentifyclimatechangesensitivitiesinnaturalareasanddevelopedareas”inordertocreateandimplementadaptationpoliciesby2015.

b. CERPPartnersareprovidingvarioustoolsandinformationtocreatesealevelriseguidancefortheeverglades

V. Outcomesa. UsingtheCERPframeworktobegintoadapttotheeffectsofclimatechangemayholdpromise

becausefederal,state,andlocalpartnershipshavealreadybeenestablishedandthereisapre‐establishedsourceoffundingforfutureprojects.

Source:http://www.evergladesplan.org/



ParticipatoryScenarioPlanningforClimateChangeinSouthernFlorida’sGreaterEvergladesLandscape

I. Location:MIT

II. Leadagencies:

a. U.S.FishandWildlifeService

b. U.S.GelogicalSurvey


a. Projectdevelopedasetofspatially‐articulatepotentialfuturelandusemapsthatallowstheexplorationoftheinteractionbetweenglobalclimatechange,humanpopulationsettlementpreferences,andstateandlocalpolicies.Inparticular,onecanbegintojudgetheeffectivenessofcurrentconservationstrategiesagainstalandscapeinwhichpeople‐aswellasspecies‐arelikelytorelocateinresponsetoclimatechange.

Source:

http://training.fws.gov/CSP/Resources/climate_change/resources.html



ClimateChangeActionPlanfortheFloridaReefSystem2010‐2015

I. Purposea. Theactionplanisintendedtoguidecoordinationofreefmanagementacrossmanyjurisdictions

andserveasamoredetailed,Florida‐specificcompaniontotheclimatechangegoalandobjectivesin“NOAACoralReefConservationProgramGoalsandObjectives2010‐2015”

b. 3maingoals:increaseresiliencythroughactivemanagement,enhancecommunicationandawareness,andconducttargetedresearch.

c. Identifieswaystoincreasereefresiliencytoclimatechangeandminimizenegativeimpactsonreef‐dependentindustriessuchasdivingandsnorkelingtourism,andcommercialandrecreationalfishing

d. Outlinesaholistic,adaptablefive‐yearprogramthatFlorida’sreefmanagerscanundertakeincollaborationwithreefusersandotherstakeholderstominimizethedamageandassociatedimpactsofclimatechange.Itisintendedtobeadoptedandupdatedatleasteveryfiveyears.

II. ToptenpriorityclimatechangeactionsfortheFloridareefsystema. Improveregulationsandmanagementthatfacilitateadaptationtoclimatechangeandocean

acidificationb. Developandimplementamarinezoningplanthatincorporatedresilience‐basedconceptsc. IntegrateclimatechangepredictionsanduncertaintiesintoFlorida’scomprehensiveplanninglaws

andproceduresd. ContinueandexpandtheFRRPdisturbanceresponsemonitoringe. Decreasethelikelihoodofnegativefishing,diving,andotherreefuseimpactsbyincreasinglaw

enforcementpresenceandregulatorycompliancef. Developscientificclimatechangefactsheetsg. Forecastthepotentialsocialandeconomiceffectsofclimatechangeonreef‐dependentindustries

andcommunitiestomeasuretheirvulnerabilityandresilienceanddeterminecost‐to‐benefitratiosofanyproposedclimatechangemitigation/adaptationmeasures

h. Increaseawarenessi. Monitorenvironmentalvariableslinkedtocoralbleachingandotherclimatechangeimpactsj. DevelopscientificmodelsoftheFloridareefsystemtohelppredictitsresponsetophysical,

chemical,andsocio‐economicshiftsassociatedwithclimatechange

Source:http://www.frrp.org/SLR%20documents/FL%20Reef%20Action%20Plan‐WEB.pdf



EcologicalEffectsofSLRintheFloridaPanhandleandCoastalAlabama

I. Intendedpurpose:

a. ImprovescientificunderstandingofthefactorsandscalesnecessarytoevaluateshorezonemodificationandhelpdevelopapredictivetoolofecosystemmodificationduetoSLR

II. ProjectBackground

a. PilotEESLRprojectbeganinNCin2005

III. ProjectImplementation

a. WorkshopwasheldinJanuary2008

b. 5groups

i. Geomorphologyandphysicalprocesses

ii. Subtidalhabitats

iii. Terrestrialbiologicalresources

iv. Waterqualityandhydrology

v. Modeling

IV. Generalstrategicrecommendations

a. Performtargetedstudiesofbiologicalandphysiologicaltolerancestochange

b. Utilizehistoricalunderstandingofcommunityretreat

c. Improveunderstandingofbenthic,nearshore,andupstreamhabitatconnectivity

d. Improveunderstandingofthepresentandfuturedistributionofhabitatsandtheabilityofspeciestomigrate

e. Usestandardizedparameterstohelpdrivemodels

f. Ensureadequatetimescalessothattimescalesofconcernforecologicaleffectsareaslongasthetimescalesforplanningcriticalinfrastructure

V. Projectoutcomesandconclusions

a. UserelevantscientificdatatodeterminethefactorsandscalesnecessarytoevaluateshorezonemodificationanddevelopapredictivetoolofecosystemmodificationduetoSLR

Source:http://www.cop.noaa.gov/stressors/climatechange/features/SLRWhitePaper3‐09.pdf



RetrospectiveandProspectiveModelSimulationsofSLRImpactsonGulfofMexico CoastalMarshesandForestsinWaccasassaBay,Florida

I. StudyPurpose

a. Floridahasextensivelowelevationcoastalhabitats

b. SLAMMsimulationtoimproveunderstandingofthemagnitudeandlocationofthesechangesfor58,000haoftheWaccasassaBayregionofFlorida’scentralGulfofMexicocoast

c. ProspectiverunsofSLAMMusing.64m,1m,and2mSLRscenariospredictsubstantialchangesoverthiscenturyintheareacoveredbycoastalwetlandsystemsincludingnetlossesofcoastalforests(69%,83%,and99%),inlandforests(33%,50%,and88%),butnetgainsoftidalflats(17%,142%,and3,837%)

II. Background

a. The4primaryprocessesusedtopredictwetlandfatewithSLRareinundation,erosion,overwash,andsaturation

b. ConductedbothretrospectiveandprospectiveSLAMManalysesforanapproximately58,000haareasurroundingandincludingWaccasassaBayPreserveStateParkintheBigBendregionofFlorida

c. CompareresultsofSLAMMhindcastwiththosefromdatafrom13permanentplotsmonitoredsince1992

III. Results

a. Implicationfromfindingsatthesitelevelisthatundeveloped,unprotected,landsinlandfromthecoastalforestshouldbeprotectedtoaccommodateupslopemigrationofthisnaturalcommunityinresponsetorisingseas

b. ResultsfromSLAMMhindcastagreewithfieldobservationsoftheeffectsofSLRonthestudyareaalongtheGulfcoastofFlorida

c. 30%ofthecoastalforestwasadjustedtosaltmarshinthemodelbasedontheelevationinputlayer–inactualitynotreallynoticeableinsomecasesyet

d. Modelpredictscommunitycompositionwhenwetlandshavecometoequilibriumwithagivensealevel,meaningthatitwillnotaccuratelypredictshort‐termtransitionaleffects

e. SLAMMalsopredictedhigherconversionofcoastalforestintosaltmarshthanpredictedbyCastanedaandPutz

Source:

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~mhannion/Geselbracht.pdf



BurstingtheBubbleofDoomandAdaptingtoSLR

I. LeadAgencies

a. RWPaskinsnConsulting,Inc.

b. FSU

c. TimothyDixon

d. ReedNoss

e. AnthonyOliver‐Smith

f. FrancisPutz

g. ThomasRuppert

h. KennethEdwardSassaman

i. MichaelVolk


a. Thereportdiscussestheadaptivemanagementprocessthatspecifiesoneormoreessentialactionsnecessarytoreducethevulnerabilityofbuiltandnaturalenvironmentstorisingseas.

Source:http://www.spacecoastclimatechange.com/documents/resources/Bursting_the_Bubble_of_Doom_and_Adapting_to_slr.pdf



IntegratedModelingfortheAssessmentofEcologicalImpactsofSLR

I. LeadAgencies

a. UCF

b. Dewberry,Inc.

c. NorthwestFloridaWaterManagementDistrict

d. FloridaStateUniversity

e. UniversityofFlorida

f. UniversityofSouthCarolina

g. NOAA


a. Thestudyteam,ledbyScottHagen,Ph.D.,oftheUniversityofCentralFlorida,willdevelopsealevelrisecomputermodelstopredicttheimpactsstormsandrisingwaterposetothenorthernGulf’scoastline,includingshorelineandbarrierislanderosion.Theresultsofthestudywillbeincorporatedintocoastalecosystemplanningforrestorationeffortsandothernaturalresourcemanagementdecisionsintheregion.Itmayalsohelpoilspillrespondersbetterunderstandoilthatmayresideinthesubsidedecosystems.

Source:http://www.cop.noaa.gov/stressors/climatechange/current/slr/abstracts.aspx



EffectsofClimateChangeonFlorida’sOceanandCoastalResourcesA Special Report to the Florida Energy and Climate Commission and the People of Florida

TheFloridaOceansandCoastalCouncilpreparedthisreportin2009toprovideafoundationforfuturediscussionsoftheeffectsofglobalclimatechangeonFlorida'soceanandcoastalresources,andtoinformFloridiansaboutthecurrentstateofscientificknowledgeregardingclimatechange.Thereportprovidesahigh‐leveloverviewoftheimpactstoinfrastructure,humanhealthandtheeconomy,aswellaskeydriverssuchasincreasingairtemperatures,warmingoceantemperatures,andsealevelrise.Foreachdriver,effectssuchasalteredseverityandfrequencyofhurricanesandprecipitationpatterns,arediscussedintermsofprobableandpossibleoutcomes.ResearchprioritiesfortheCouncilthatsupporttheimpactsandeffectsidentifiedareoutlined.

Thereportismeanttoprovideimportantandeasytounderstandinformationforlegislators,policymakers,governmentalagencies,andmembersofthepublicwhoareworkingtoaddress,orwhoareinterestedin,issuesrelatedtoclimatechangeinFlorida.

Source:

http://www.floridaoceanscouncil.org/reports/



AssessmentofRedefiningFlorida’sCoastalHighHazardArea

I. Purposea. Thisreportexamineshowthe2006legislativechangetocoastalhighhazardarea(CHHA)policies

introducedbyHB1359,changedtheCHHAboundariesandmayimpactresiliencyandlanddevelopmentinFlorida’scoastalcommunities

b. ThefocusofthisreportistoassesstheimpactofthenewboundarydefinitionfortheCHHAc. Thepolicycasestudyalsoraisesseriousquestionsabouttheroleofscienceandplanninganalysis

inthepolicyformulationprocess.II. Background

a. NewlanguageHB1359:thecoastalhighhazardareaistheareabelowtheelevationofthecategory1stormsurgelineisestablishedbyaSLOSHcomputerizedstormsurgemodel.

III. Methodologya. ResearchisbasedonFlorida’sthreetreasurecoastcountiesb. PartII:providesabriefsummaryoftheCHHAregulations,criticismsraisedbyopponents,andthe

controversythatspurreditsre‐examinationc. PartIII:summarizestheGISmethodologyandthequalitativedatausedintheassessmentofthe

impactofthenewboundarydelineationsinthethreetreasurecoastcountiesofMartin,St.Lucie,andIndianRiver

d. PartIV:presentsfindingsfollowedbytheresearchconclusions,whichframetheanalysisinthecontextofmaintainingandimprovingcommunityresiliencytohurricanesandintermsofitspotentialtoencourageadditionallanddevelopment

e. PartV:presentsadiscussionoftheevolvingCHHApolicy,whywebelieveHB1359representsachangeinpolicydirection,andquestionstheadoptionoftheSLOSHcategory1criterion

IV. Findingsa. ThenewdefinitionbasedontheSLOSHmodelforacategory1hurricaneredefinesthespatial

geographyofthezoneinwaysthatmaycompromiseresiliencyi. ItwouldremoveCHHAregulationsfromsomeofthemostvulnerablecoastallands,

specificallycoastalareasadjacenttotheocean,withtheevacuationzone,butsituatedathigherbaseelevations

ii. Itaddslandthatiszonesforconservationorrecreationuseandwhichisalreadyprotectedfromimprudentdevelopmentbyitszoningdesignationsandwetlandregulations

iii. Changeinboundariesmightkindleredevelopmentactivityof“soft‐sites”asseveralkeyparcelsanddesirableneighborhoodswillbecomeeligibleforupzoningreconsideration

b. Themoststrikingdifferencebetweenthetwoboundarydefinitionsistheshapeoftheregulatedarea.ThenewCHHAistopographicallybasedandthusincludespartsofthiscoastalstripthatarebelowthestormsurgelevel,butexcludesareasofhigherelevationdespiteproximitytotheoceanorintercoastalwaterway.ThereforetheCHHAisnolongeracontiguousblanketedarea,butratherresembles“swisscheese”wherelandsabovethetopographiclevelofthestormsurgeforacategory1stormareremovedfromtheCHHAzone

V. Recommendationsa. Thetimehascometoholisticallyconsidertheenvironmental,hazardmitigation,landuse,and

economicdevelopmentissuesrelatedtocoastalplanningb. Intermsofthecoastalhighhazardarea,itshouldbebroadenedtoembracediverseaspectsof

naturalhazardmitigation.Definedataregionalscalethroughacoastalsectorplanthatreflectsvariabilityoflocalgeo‐morphologyansocio‐politicallinkagesamongneighboringjurisdictions

c. TheCHHAregulationoughttobereexaminedandperhapsnewlanguageshouldbedevelopedthatrevisitsthepurposeandobjectivesoftheCHHAholistically

Source:http://docs.cdsi.fau.edu/cues/CHHAFINALREPORT‐MAY212008.pdf



Florida’sResilientCoasts:AStatePolicyFrameworkforAdaptationtoClimateChange

I. LeadAgencies

a. FAU

b. CenterforUrbanandEnvironmentalSolution

c. NationalCommissiononEnergyPolicy


a. TheprojectpresentsacomprehensivepolicyframeworkwhichwillassistFloridastategovernment1)inassessingthelikelyimpactsofclimatechangeonitscoastalregionsandcommunitiesandthen2)developingandadoptingpoliciesandprogramsthatwillenablethestate,itscommunities,anditsresidentstoadapttoandadaptivelymanagethoseimpactsoverthenearandlongterm.

Source:

www.communicationsmgr.com/projects/1349/docs/FAUResilientCoasts.pdf



FLORIDACITIES

CityofPuntaGordaAdaptationplan

I. Location:CityofPuntaGorda

II. LeadAgencies

a. CharlotteHarborNationalEstuaryProgram

b. SouthwestFloridaRegionalPlanningCouncil


a. ThisreportidentifiesthealternativeadaptationsthatcouldbeundertakentoaddresstheidentifiedclimatechangevulnerabilitiesfortheCityofPuntaGorda.Theseadaptationsarepresentedintheorderofprioritizedagreementfromthepublicmeetings.Onlythehighestagreementadaptationineachvulnerabilityareaisfullydevelopedforpotentialimplementation.Oneoftheutilitiesofthisapproachisthatitprovidesavarietyofadaptationoptions,whichtheCitycouldselectforimplementation,adaptivemanagement,andsubsequentmonitoring.

Source:

http://www.georgetownclimate.org/resources/city‐of‐punta‐gorda‐adaptation‐plan



CityofSatelliteBeachMunicipal Adaptation to Sea‐Level Rise

I. ProjectPurpose

a. Inthefallof2009,theCityofSatelliteBeach,Florida,authorizedaprojectdesignedto:

i. Assessmunicipalvulnerabilitytorisingsealevel

ii. Initiatetheplanningprocesstoproperlymitigateimpacts

II. Facts

a. Highprecisionsatellitealtimetersindicatesealevelhasbeenrisingat3.3+/‐0.4mmperyear

b. Threebasicoptioninrespondingtosea‐levelrise

i. Protect

ii. Retreat

iii. Accommodate

c. Resultsindicateabout5%oftheCitylandscapewillsubmergeduringtheinitial+2ftrise,withinundationgenerallyrestrictedtofringingwetlandsandfingercanalmarginsproximaltotheBananaRiver

d. The“tippingpoint”towardscatastrophicinundationis+2ft,forecasttooccuraround2050.

e. TheCityhasabout40yearstoformulateanimplementamitigationplan

III. Methodology

a. Bathtubmodel–baseduponthefloodingofstaticterrain

b. Notaseriousweaknessbecause:

i. Projectdesignedasapilotprogramtoprovidebase‐line

ii. Likelymagnitudeofgeomorphicchangewouldnotbesignificant

iii. Presenceofextensivecoastalarmoringalongmunicipalshorelines

IV. Adaptivemanagement

a. On‐goinganditerativeprocessthatspecifiesoneormoreessentialactionsnecessarytoreducethevulnerabilitytorisingseas

V. Initialsteps

a. ComprehensivePlanningAdvisoryBoardapprovedaseriesofupdatesandrevisionstotheCity’sCompPlan

i. Ifapproved,theamendmentswillprovidealegalbasisforimplementinganadaptivemanagementplanandspecificactionsdesignedtomitigatetheCity’svulnerabilitytosea‐levelrise

VI. Threesteps

a. Developmentofa3‐Dmodelor“basemap”oftheCity

b. Compilationandmappingof“criticalinfrastructureandassets”

c. QuantificationoftheextenttowhichtheCityanditscriticalassetswouldbeinundatedbysea‐levelrise

Source:

http://spacecoastclimatechange.com/documents/100730_CSB_CRE_Final_Report.pdf



MunicipalAdaptationtoSLR–SatelliteBeach

I. Location:SatelliteBeach

II. LeadAgencies

a. RWParkinsonConsulting,Inc


a. Inthefallof2009,theCityofSatelliteBeach,Florida,authorizedaprojectdesignedto:assessmunicipalvulnerabilitytorisingsealevelandinitiatetheplanningprocesstoproperlymitigateimpacts.

IV. IntegrationintoLocalPlanFramework

a. ComprehensivePlanningAdvisoryBoardtoapproveaseriesofupdatesandrevisionstotheCity’sCompPlan.Ifapproved,theamendmentswillprovidealegalbasisforimplementinganadaptivemanagementplanandspecificactionsdesignedtomitigatetheCity’svulnerabilitytosea‐levelrise

V. Methodology/Predictions

a. Planusesthebathtubmodel,baseduponthefloodingofstaticterrain.Highprecisionsatellitealtimetersindicatesealevelhasbeenrisingat3.3+/‐0.4mmperyear.Resultsindicateabout5%oftheCitylandscapewillsubmergeduringtheinitial+2ftrise,withinundationgenerallyrestrictedtofringingwetlandsandfingercanalmarginsproximaltotheBananaRiver.The“tippingpoint”towardscatastrophicinundationis+2ft,forecasttooccuraround2050.

VI. Project/Actions/Conclusions

a. TheCityhasabout40yearstoformulateanimplementamitigationplan

Source:http://spacecoastclimatechange.com/documents/100730_CSB_CRE_Final_Report.pdf



Yankeetown,FLCoastal Forests Retreat

I. UFresearch

a. InvestigatingcoastalforestdeclineandreplacementbysaltmarshinYankeetownsincemid‐1990s

b. Results:consequenceofchronicstressesofSLRcoupledwiththepunctuateddisturbancesofstormsanddroughts

i. Saltistheprimaryculprit

II. Salt

a. Healthanddiversityoftheriversideforestsistestimonytooccasionalcleansingbyfreshwater

b. Greenhouseexperimentsinvolvingpottedplantsgrowninsaltsolutionsincolorfulplasticswimmingpoolsconfirmedtherankingoftreespecies’salttoleranceobservedinthefield

i. Salttoleranceincreasewithtreesize

c. Forsalt‐sensitivespecies,eventheoccasionalseasurge,especiallyiffollowedbydryconditions,canbefatal

III. Importanttorememberthattheforestsarebeingreplacedbysaltmarshes,whichhavetheirownvirtues

Source:http://people.biology.ufl.edu/fep/SeaLevelRiseFlorida2012inThePalmetto.pdf



FLORIDA COUNTIES & REGIONS

LeeCountyClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment

I. FiveFutureScenariosfor2100

a. Aconditionthatinvolvesafutureinwhichmitigativeactionsareundertakentoreducethehumaninfluenceonclimatechange

b. A90%probablefuturepredictedbytheintergovernmentalpanelonclimatechange

c. A50%probablefuturepredictedbyIPCC

d. A5%probablefuturepredictedbyIPCC

e. A“veryworst”futureinwhichnoactionsaretakentoaddressclimatechange

II. Reportassessessignificantpotentialclimate‐relatedchangesinairandwaterandtheeffectsofthosechangesonclimatestability,sealevel,hydrology,geomorphology,naturalhabitatsandspecies,landusechanges,economy,humanhealth,humaninfrastructure,andvariableriskprojections

III. Prioritizedrankingforclimatechangevulnerabilities

a. Alteredhydrology

b. Climateinstability/stormseverity

c. Habitatandspecieschanges

d. Geomorphic(landform)changes

e. Sealevelriseandwatertemperatureandchemistrychanges

f. Infrastructureimpactsandlandusechanges

g. Airtemperaturesandchemistrychangesandhumanhealth

h. Humaneconomy

i. Variablerisk

IV. 5majorstressorsofclimatechange

a. Changesintheratioofatmosphericgases

b. Changesinairtemperatureandwatervapor

c. Changesinwaterbodytemperature

d. Changesinwaterchemistry

e. Changesinsealevel

Source:

http://www.leecounty.com/gov/dept/sustainability/Documents/Lee%20County%20Climate%20Change%20Vulnerability%20Assessment%20Final%20201.pdf



LeeCountyClimateChangeandResiliencyStrategy

I. LeadAgencies

a. SWFLWaterManagementDistrict


a. TheCCRSincludesaprocessforidentifyingpotentialclimatechangeresiliencystrategiesthroughcoordinationandconsultationwithlocalgovernmentleadershipin39LeeCountydepartmentsanddivisions,includingconstitutionaloffices.IdentificationofresiliencystrategiesthatcouldbeutilizedbyLeeCountytoreducethenegativeeffectsofclimatechangewillalsohelpinpositioningtheCountytotakeadvantageofpotentialclimateprosperityopportunities.TheCCRSisatoolboxthatcontainsawidevarietyofideasandopportunitiesfortheCountytoemployinclimatechangeplanning,energysavings,andcostsavings.TheCCRSinformstheCountyofoptionsandopportunitiesbutitdoesnotprioritizethoseactionsordirectCountypolicy.Prioritizationwouldrequireafullpublicplanningprocessincorporatingpublicparticipationaspartofafulladaptationplan.

Source:

http://www.swfrpc.org/content/Natural_Resources/Ecosystem_Services/Lee_County_Climate_Change_Resiliency_Strategy.pdf



SarasotaCounty,FL:CurrentandFutureVulnerabilitytoHurricaneStormSurgeandSeaLevelRise

I. Goal:a. Developacomprehensivevulnerabilityassessmentframeworkthatintegratesgeospatialanalysis

andstakeholderinputtofacilitateenhancedcommunityresiliencethroughplanningII. Elements

a. VulnerabilityassessmentincludingSLRb. Decision‐supportmethodologyincorporatingscientificunderstandingwithvalue‐basedhuman

dynamicsc. InjectSLRscenariosintolong‐rangeplanningactivities

III. Methodologya. SLOSHmodel:Sea,Lake,OverlandSurgesfromHurricanesModelb. PriorResearchc. Impactofeachcategorystorm–resultsdeterminedbypercentageoftotalpopulationinsurgezone

inspecificneighborhoodsd. Focusgroupsdividedintosubgroups:

i. Business,Environmental,Planners,Facilities&infrastructure,GovernmentofficialsIV. Results

a. Brokendownintosubgroupsi. Overall:locationofdevelopment,locationofurbanserviceboundary,infrastructureinside

hazardzone,costofshiftingdevelopmentii. Business:IDbeachspecificbusinesses,rebuildingwithFEMArestrictions,movingcritical

andessentialfacilities,andimposingmitigationrestrictionsiii. Environmental:mitigateSLRimpactsonenvironmentalareas,transferdevelopmentrights,

developlandswaps,replenishwetlandsforsurgemitigationiv. Planners:increasedensityoutsidehazardszones,incentivestosteerdevelopment,

strategiestoretreatfromcoast,andlimitedbyeconomicrealitiesv. Facilities&infrastructure:mitigatenow(movedatedinfrastructure,ensurefunctional

flexibility,reviseexistingplan),planbetterforfuture(cautiouslyplaceinfrastructureinhazardzones,evacuation)

vi. Governmentofficials:evaluateplacementofurbanserviceboundary,mitigationneedvs.costofmoving(facilities&infrastructure),locatehighdensityresidentialoutsidehazardzones,andtransportationaddmoreNtoSonHighway75

V. Conclusions a. Developmentconstrictedtohazardszonesb. Specificadjustments:Relaxurbanserviceboundaries;Steerdevelopmentoutofhazardszone;

Relocate/replaceinfrastructure;Exploreevacuationalternativesc. Urbangrowthboundariesincoastalcommunitiescouldcontributetohurricanehazardsexposure

Source:

http://www.scgov.net/pdrp/documents/PSUHurricaneStudy070609.pdf



Sarasota,FL:InfluenceofPotentialSeaLevelRiseonSocietalVulnerabilitytoHurricanesStorm‐surgeHazards,SarasotaCounty,FL

I. Purpose

a. Concern:climatechange,specificallypotentialSLR,couldinfluencetheimpactsoffuturehurricanes

b. Assessment:variationsinsocioeconomicexposureinSarasotaCounty,FL,tocontemporaryhurricanestorm‐surgehazardsandtostorm‐surgehazardsenhancedbySLRscenarios

c. Finding:significantportionsofthepopulation,economicactivity,andcriticalfacilitiesareincontemporaryandfuturehurricanestorm‐surgehazardzones

II. RecentmodifiedprojectionssuggestglobalSLRby.8‐2.0metersby2100

III. Inadditiontoincreaseinstorm‐surgeinundationzonesduetoSLR,thepotentialforfuturehurricanesdisastersisexacerbatedbythecontinuingtrendofpopulationsmigratingtocoastalareas

IV. Paper

a. ExaminestheinfluenceofSLRonsocietalvulnerabilitytohurricanestorm‐surgehazards

b. Objective:determineifandhowSLRpredictionsmayalterthepotentialsocioeconomicimpactsoffuturestormsandhowtheseimpactsmayvaryamongcommunities

c. GrowthanddevelopmentmayintersectwithSLRtoincreasevulnerabilitytohurricanestormsurge

V. HazardAssessment

a. Todelineatehurricanestorm‐surgehazardzones,weusedoutputsfromtheSLOSHmodelprovidedbyNHC(NationalHurricaneCenter)

b. TodelineatetheeffectofSLRonhurricanestorm‐surge,wedevelopedhazardscenariosbasedonthe4contemporarystorm‐surgehazardzonesforeachSaffir‐SimpsonhurricanecategorythatareeachthenenhancedbySLRprojections

VI. Vulnerabilityassessment

a. 28communitiesinSarasotaCounty

b. GIStodeterminetheamountandpercentageofthefollowingsocioeconomicattributesinthevarioushazardzonesofeachcity:Residents,employees,criticalandessentialfacilities,parcelvalue,andlanduse

VII. Results

a. Populationandassetexposureinenhancedstorm‐surgehazardzones

i. Trend:additionofSLRscenariotohurricanestorm‐surgezonesoftenresultsinadoublingofpopandassetexposure

ii. Trend:additionofSLRtocontemporarycategory1&2hurricanestorm‐surgecausessocietalexposuretobeequaltoorgreaterthanwhatisinthehazardzoneofthenexthighercontemporarySaffir‐Simpsonhurricanecategory

VIII. Discussion

a. ImportantforpublicofficialstounderstandthesocietalriskoftheircommunitiestothecombinationofSLRandhurricanestormsurge

b. Firststepsindeterminingsocioeconomicrisk=understandingsocietalexposureofassetsinrelationshiptothevariousstorm‐surgehazardzones,howSLRaltersthisexposure,andthewaysthisincreasedassetexposurevariesfromcommunitytocommunity

Source:http://stormsmart.org/wp‐content/blogs.dir/1/files/group‐documents/22/1290533117‐Frazier_etal_2010_GIS.pdf



PlanningforSLRandHurricaneStormSurgeinSarasotaCounty

I. Location:SarasotaCounty

II. LeadAgencies

a. PennStateUniversity

b. UniversityofIdaho

c. NOAA

d. USGeologicalSurvey

e. NationalScienceFoundation

III. Projectdescription

a. Athree‐yearstudythatledtothecreationofacollaborativemethodologythatlocalgovernmentofficialsandstakeholderscanuseastheyplanforthechangesexpectedtoresultfromthefutureriseinsealevel.Thisnewmodelintegratesscenariosaboutstormsurge,populationgrowthandeconomicandinfrastructuredevelopmentintothelong‐rangeplanningoptionsforcoastalcommunities.

Source:

http://www.scgov.net/pdrp/documents/PSUHurricaneStudy070609.pdf



SeaLevelRiseintheTampaBayRegion

I. Purpose

a. TampaBayRegionalPlanningCouncil(TBRPC)wascontractedbytheSouthwestFloridaRegionalPlanningCouncil(SWFRPC)throughagrantfromUSEPAtoparticipateinanationwideprojectpromotingawarenessof,andplanningfor,SLR

b. Nationalefforttoencouragethelong‐rangethinkingnecessarytoplanforSLRandimpacts

c. SLRprojecthopestostimulategovernmentplanningforadaptationtoSLReffectsonuplandsandwetlands

II. Tool

a. MapsthatvisualizetheanticipatedresponseoflocalgovernmentstoSLR,basedoncurrentlandusedesignationsandfutureplanningpolicies

b. Current5‐ftcontourlinewasusedasmeansealevelshorelineformappingpurposes

III. Predictions

a. 2050

i. 50%probability15cm

ii. 90%4.6cm

iii. 10%28cm

b. 2100

i. 50%34cm

ii. 90%10cm

iii. 10%65cm

c. 2200

i. 50%81cm

ii. 90%22cm

iii. 10%196cm

IV. Policies

a. CurrentlynospecificSLRpoliciesexistonthelocallevel

Source:http://www.tbrpc.org/mapping/pdfs/sea_level_rise/Tampa%20Bay%20‐%20Sea%20Level%20Rise%20Project%20Draft%20Report%20without%20maps.pdf



LandUseImpactsandSolutionstoSLRinEastCentralFlorida

I. Purpose

a. EastCentralFloridaPlanningCouncil(ECFRPC)wascontractedbytheSouthwestFloridaRegionalPlanningCouncil(SWFRPC)throughagrantfromUSEPAtoparticipateinanationwideprojectpromotingawarenessof,andplanningfor,SLR

b. BringmorelocalawarenesstotheissueofSLRandaidlocalgovernmentsofBrevardandVolusiacountiesinlong‐termplanningforSLRsothatbothpropertyandtheenvironmentcanbepreserved

II. Methods

a. MapscreatedforthecoastalzonesofBrevardandVolusiacountiesthatdistinguishtheshoresthatarelikelytobeprotectedfromerosion,inundation,andflooding,fromthoseshoreswherenaturalshorelineretreatlikelywilltakeplace

b. Mapshavetwoaudiences:

i. Stateandlocalplannersandothersconcernedaboutlong‐termconsequences

ii. Policymakersandcitizensconcernedaboutlong‐termclimatechange

c. Mapsillustratetheareasthatplannerswithinthisregionexpectwillbeprotectedfromerosionandinundationinthecomingdecades

III. Results

a. LittledoubtthatacontinuationofrisingsealevelwillaffectBrevardandVolusiacounties

b. Effects:

i. Affectnotonlyresidents,butmayhaveamajoreffectontouristdestinationsaswell,whichmayresultindramaticeffectsontheeconomicwellbeingofthecounties

ii. Inundationandhigherfloodelevations

iii. Shorelineerosions

iv. Saltwaterintrusionandcontaminationoftheaquifermayoccurresultinginthecontaminationofwells

c. Thereisa90%probabilitythattherewillbeoverafootriseinsealevelby2150alongtheFloridacoast

d. Localissue:

i. Erosionsisconsideredcriticalwhenthereisathreatoflossofoneofthefollowingfourinterests:recreation,wildlifehabitat,uplanddevelopment,orimportantculturalresources

ii. Almosthalfofthebeachesinthestudyareaareconsideredcriticallyerodingorerodingsubstantially

IV. Recommendations

a. Evenifsatisfiedpreservingapproximately1/3ofcoastalwetlandecosystems,theyaremostlikelytoprotectpropertyvalues,andthecommercial,industrial,tourism,andresidentialeconomiesifwestartfactoringtheimplicationsofrisingsealevelintotheplanningprocessnow,ratherthanlater

b. Currently,landuseregulationsaddressfloodmitigationandnotSLR

i. ManyofthesecanbeusedasSLRplanning

c. CurrentlynospecificSLRpoliciesexistonthelocallevel

Source:http://research.fit.edu/sealevelriselibrary/documents/doc_mgr/446/East_Central_SLR_Adaptation_‐_ECFRPC_2004.pdf



ClimateChangeandSea‐LevelRiseinFloridaAn Update of the Effects of Climate Change on Florida’s Ocean & Coastal Resources

I. PreparedbytheFloridaOceansandCoastalCouncil:Tallahassee,FL

II. Purpose

a. ProvideafoundationfordiscussionsoftheeffectsofSLRonFL’soceansandcoastalresourcesandtoinformFloridiansaboutthecurrentstateofscientificknowledgeregardingSLRandhowitislikelytoaffectFL

b. TwomainprocessesarecausingSLR:expansionofoceanwatercausedbyincreasingoceantemperatureandtheadditionof“new”waterfrommeltingreservoirsofice

c. CausingSLRby2100torangeb/n.5metertomorethanameter

III. ChangesinBarrierIslands,Beaches,andInlets

a. ContinuedSLRwillexacerbateerosion

b. SLRmayshiftthebeachprofile,andthereforetheshoreline,landward

c. Correlationb/nthelong‐termerosionratesandSLRrates

d. Islandbreaching

e. SLR=increasesizeofbays,increasetidalprism

IV. ChangesinEstuaries,TidalRivers,andCoastalForests

a. TidalwetlandsmaybekeepingpacewithcurrentratesofSLRchangebyaccretingvertically,migratingupward,orbothifthereisasourceofsedimentorspacelandwardofcurrentwetlands

b. Low‐lyingcoastalforestswillbelostduringthenext1‐3centuriesastidalwetlandsexpandacrosslow‐lyingcoastalareasandtheretreatofforestsisblockedbyurbandevelopment

V. Higherstormsurgeandimpactsoncoastalinfrastructure

a. TheriskofflooddamagetocoastalinfrastructureislikelytoincreaseinparallelwithSLR

VI. Threatstocoastalwatersupplyandwastewatertreatment

a. Surficialcoastalaquifersarealreadyexperiencingsaltwaterintrusion

VII. Increaseinbeacherosionandrenourishment

a. Erosionwillincrease,andbeacheswillrequiremorefrequentrenourishment

b. Dangerstospeciesthatarereliantonbeach–seaturtles

VIII. IncreasedFloodingRisks

a. Whatiscurrentlyconsidereda100‐yearfloodeventwilllikelybecomea50‐or20‐yeareventassealevelcontinuestorise

IX. 2010recommendationsforFloridaresearch

a. Inthefollowingcategories:oceanography,geologyandhydrology,ecology,anddecisionmaking

Source:http://www.floridaoceanscouncil.org/reports/



CharlotteHarborRegionalClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment

I. LeadAgencies

a. CharlotteHarborNationalEstuaryProgram

b. SWFLRegionalPlanningcouncil

c. EPA


a. Thisreportassessessignificantpotentialclimatechangesinairandwaterandtheeffectsofthosechangesonclimatestability,sealevel,hydrology,geomorphology,naturalhabitatsandspecies,landusechanges,economy,humanhealth,humaninfrastructure,andvariableriskprojections,intheCharlotteHarborregion.

Source:www.chnep.org/NEP/agendas‐2010/CAC/ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment.pdf



ComprehensiveSWFL/CharlotteHarborClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment

I. ReportPurposea. Assesssignificantpotentialclimatechangesinairandwaterandtheeffectsofthosechangeson

climatestability,sealevel,hydrology,geomorphology,naturalhabitatsandspecies,landusechanges,economy,humanhealth,humaninfrastructure,&variableriskprojectionsinSWFlorida

b. Outputscommunicatedtolocalgovernments,stakeholdergroups,andthepublici. Foruseindevelopingcoastalandlanduseplanningandforuseinavoidance,minimization,

mitigation,andadaptationofclimatechangeimpactsthroughouttheCHNEPstudyareac. SWFRPCandCHNEPconductedthevulnerabilityanalysis

II. 5majorstressorsofclimatechangeaddressedinthisdocument:a. Changesintheratioofatmosphericgasesb. Changesinairtemperatureandwatervaporc. Changesinwaterbodytemperatured. Changesinwaterchemistrye. Changesinsealevel

III. 12categoriesa. Airtemperatureandchemistryb. Alteredhydrologyc. Climateinstabilityd. Geomorphicchangese. Habitatandspecieschangesf. Sealevelriseg. Watertemperatureandchemistryh. Humanecologyi. Humanhealthj. Infrastructurek. Landusechangesl. Variablerisk

IV. Projections:StantonandAckermanextremesa. Rapidstabilizationcase

i. 2025–1.8ii. 2050–3.5iii. 2075–5.3iv. 2100–7.1

b. Business‐as‐usualcasei. 2025–11.3ii. 2050–22.6iii. 2075–34iv. 2100–45.3

Source:http://www.swfrpc.org/content/Natural_Resources/Ecosystem_Services/Vulnerability_Assessment_Final.pdf



SeaLevelRiseintheTreasureCoastRegion

I. Purpose

a. ReportisdesignedtosupporttheEPA’snationaleffortencouragingthelong‐termthinkingrequiredtodealwiththeissuesassociatedwithsealevelrise

b. ThereportcreatesmapsoftheTeasureCoastRegionthatdistinguishtheshoresthatarelikelytobeprotectedfromerosion,inundation,andfloodingfromthoseareaswherenaturalshorelineretreatislikelytotakeplace

II. Goal

a. Todiminishlossestolifeandpropertyfromcoastalhazardssuchaserosionandinundation,andtoensurethelong‐termsurvivalofcoastalwetlands

III. Predictions

a. 2025:2.8inchesto10.7inches

b. 2200:21.0inchesto177.3inches

c. BasedonEPAreportwhichreliedonvariousscientificopinionsregardingsealevelchangesaffectedbyfactorssuchasradiativeforcingcausedbybothgreenhousegasesandsulfateaerosols,globalwarming,andthermalexpansion,polartemperaturesandprecipitation,andthecontributionstosealevelfromGreenland,Antarctica,andsmallglaciers.

IV. Proposedpolicies

a. Considertheimpactofsealevelriseinalllanduseamendmentsincoastalareaslessthan10feetinelevation

b. Obtaindetailedtopographicmapsshowingonefootcontoursinthecoastalzonetoassistinplanningforsealevelrise

c. Developaplantoprotectorrelocateallcriticalpublicfacilitiesthatarelocatedinareasprojectedtobeimpactedbysealevelriseinthenext50years

d. Closelymonitorupdatestosealevelriseforecastsandpredictions

e. Developasealevelriseresponseplanthatspecificallyidentifiestheareaswhereretreat,accommodation,andprotectionwillbeimplemented

Source:http://www.tcrpc.org/special_projects/TCRPC%20SLR%20Report%2012‐05‐05.pdf



SouthFloridaWaterManagementDistrictClimate Change & Water Management

I. Purpose

a. Providehigh‐levelfoundationforfuturediscussionsoftheeffectsofglobalclimateonwatermanagementplanningandoperations

b. FocustheglobalconceptsofclimatechangeattheregionallevelbyprovidinganoverviewofhowitmayaffectSouthFlorida’sresourcesandthemissionresponsibilitiesoftheSFWMD

II. Includes

a. InitialvulnerabilityassessmentofthepotentialthreatsofclimatechangeandSLRtowatersupply,floodcontrol,coastalecosystems,andregionalwatermanagementinfrastructure

III. Organization&Techniques

a. Impactsdividedinto4areas:risingseas;temperatureandevapotranspiration;rainfall,floods,anddraught;andtropicalstormsandhurricanes.

b. Planningperiodofapproximately50years–to2060–isgenerallyused

IV. Predictions

a. Overthenext50yrs,SouthFloridamayexperienceseasthatareintherangeof5to20incheshigherthancurrentlevels

b. TwoprimaryfactorsforSLR

i. Thermalexpansion

ii. Meltingice

Source:http://research.fit.edu/sealevelriselibrary/documents/doc_mgr/447/South%20Florida%20Water_Management_&_CC_‐_SFWMD_2009.pdf



DevelopingaSeaLevelRiseVulnerabilityFrameworkforSouthFloridaIndicators, Metrics, and Models

I. LeadAgencies

a. FIU

b. USGeologicalSurvey


a. Theworkshop,theresultofanexistingcollaborationbetweenUSGS,FIU,andFAU,focusedonconceptualizingandevaluatingvulnerabilityandqualityoflife(QOL)metricsinthecontextofsealevelrise(SLR),andchanginglanddevelopmentpatterns.Thiscollaborationisanextensionofalong‐termeffortbytheUSGS,NPSandotherstodeveloptheEcosystemPortfolioModel(EPM),aGeographicInformationSystem‐basedmulti‐criteriadecision‐supportwebtoolmeanttoevaluatelanduseplansandproposedlanduse/landcoverchanges.

Source:http://www2.fiu.edu/~ipor/climatechange/FAU_FIU_USGS_JUNE2010_WORKSHOP_REPORT.pdf



SouthFloridaSLRProject

I. LeadAgencies

a. SouthFloridaRegionalPlanningCouncil

b. EPA

c. SWFLRegionalPlanningCouncil

d. TreasureCoastRegionalPlanningCouncil


a. Thisprojectexaminedtheeffectsoflong‐termsealevelriseonsevencoastalcountiesinFlorida,includingBroward,Monroe,Miami‐Dade,IndianRiver,PalmBeach,Martin,andSt.Luciecounties.TheprimaryobjectivewastoexaminewhatSouthFloridamightlooklikein200yearsunderclimatechangescenariosthatwouldcausesignificantsealevelrise.SealevelriseisexpectedtosignificantlyaffectFlorida’scoastaltourismindustry.Publicandprivateinfrastructureslocatedinvulnerableareasarelikelytobedamagedand/ordestroyedwithincreasedsealevelsanderosion.

Source:http://www.sfrpc.com/gis/SFRPC%20SLR%20Study%20(September%202005).pdf



PastandProjectedTrendsinClimateandSeaLevelforSouthFlorida

I. LeadAgencies

a. SouthFloridaWaterManagementDistrict


a. ThisreportrepresentstheculminationofseveralinvestigationsaimedatassessingthecurrentstateofknowledgeontheseissuesastheypertaintosouthFlorida.ThefirstsectionprovidesanassessmentofnaturalclimatevariabilityandhowitinfluencesthesouthFloridaclimate.Thisisfollowedwithanin‐depthanalysisofhistoricaltrendsinprecipitationandtemperature,andtheirprojectionsproducedbyGeneralCirculationModels(GCMs)andRegionalClimateModels(RCMs).Next,sealevelrisetrendsandprojectionsarereviewedincludingexaminationofpotentialchangestostormsurgesandcoastaldrainagecapacity,followedbyabriefsummaryofexploratoryhydrologicalmodelingconductedtounderstandthewaterresourcesimpactsoftheseprojectedchanges.

Source:http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xrepository/sfwmd_repository_pdf/ccireport_publicationversion_14jul11.pdf



FloridaForeverWorkPlan

I. LeadAgencies

a. SuwanneeRiverWaterManagementDistrict


a. Theplancontainsalistoflandsthatsequestercarbon,providehabitat,protectcoastallandsorbarrierislands,andotherwisemitigatetohelpadapttotheeffectsofsealevelrise.

Source:www.srwmd.state.fl.us/documents/Land%20Acquisition%20and%20Management/FloridaForeverWorkplan_2008.pdf



SoutheastFloridaRegionalClimateChangeCompactA Region Responds to a Changing Climate

AcollaborativeeffortamongBroward,Miami‐Dade,Monroe,andPalmBeachCountiestodevelopaclimatechangeactionplan.Specificaccomplishmentsincludethedevelopmentofregionally‐consistentmethodologiesformappingsea‐levelriseimpacts,assessingvulnerability,andunderstandingthesourcesofregionalgreenhousegasemissions.Thecompactcallsforconcertedactioninreducinggreenhousegasemissionsandanticipatingandadaptingtoregionalandlocalimpactsofachangingclimate.

I. Policyrecommendationswillbeimplementedthroughseveralapproaches:

a. Thedevelopmentofpolicyguidingdocumentsbylocalandregionalgoverningbodies

b. Thedevelopmentofoperationalguidancedocuments

c. Thedevelopmentofconsistentgoalsandmeasuresthroughoutthevariousgovernmentsintheregion

d. Acoordinatedmulti‐disciplinaryoutreachandeducationprogram

e. Processesforfocusedandprioritizedinvestments

II. Methodology

a. BasedontheUSACEJuly2009GuidanceDocument

b. Twokeyplanninghorizons:

i. 2030–SLRprojectedtobe3‐7inches

ii. 2060–SLRprojectedtobe9‐24inches

c. ASLRofonefootisprojectedtooccurbetween2040‐2070withsealevelcontinuingtoriseintothefuture

d. Reviewprojectionafter4years

e. Mappingwascompletedtoincludedifferentsealevelriseinundationscenariostohelpidentifyareasatpotentialriskandaidinplanningforadaptationstrategies

III. StructureoftheRegionalClimateActionPlan:6categories

a. Sustainablecommunitiesandtransportationplanning

b. Watersupply,management,andinfrastructure

c. Naturalsystemsandagriculture

d. Energyandfuel

e. Riskreductionandemergencymanagement

f. Outreachandpublicpolicy

IV. Nextsteps

Source:http://webapps.broward.org/NewsRelease/Attachments/3467_237_12072011_DRAFT%20SE%20Florida%20Regional%20Climate%20Change%20Action%20Plan.pdf



AUnifiedSeaLevelRiseProjectionforSoutheastFlorida

I. Objectivea. WorktowarddevelopingaunifiedSLRprojectionfortheSEFloridaregionforusebytheSEFl

regionalclimatecompactcountiesandpartnersforplanningpurposestoaidinunderstandingpotentialvulnerabilitiesandtoprovideabasisforoutliningstrategiesfortheSEFLregion

II. ConclusionsandRecommendationsa. Providesguidanceforthecompactcountiesandtheirpartnerstoinitiateplanningtoaddressthe

potentialimpactsofSLRontheregionb. Strategiclong‐term(beyond2060)policydiscussionswillbeneededtoincludedevelopmentof

guidelinesforpublicandprivateinvestmentswhichwillhelpreducecommunityvulnerabilitytosealevelriseimpactsbeyond2060

c. RecommendationsfromtheTechnicalAdhocWorkGroupi. TheSEFLUnifiedSLRProjectionshouldbebasedontheUSArmyCorpsofEngineers

(USACE)July2009guidancedocumentusingkeywestdata(1913‐1999)asthefoundationofthecalculationsandreferencingtheyear2010asthestartingdateforSLRprojections

ii. Thisprojectionshouldbeusedforplanningpurposes,withemphasisontheshortandmoderatetermplanninghorizonsof2030(USACE‐3‐7inches)and2060(USACE‐9‐24inches)

iii. Ascience‐basednarrativefor2060andbeyondprovidescontextforthecurrentstateofscientificunderstandingandthepotentialissueswhichmustbeconsideredwhenlookingtowardtheendofthe21stcenturyandbeyond

iv. TheunifiedSEFLsealevelriseprojectionwillneedtobereviewedasthescientificunderstandingoficemeltdynamicsimproves.Theprojectionshouldberevisedwithinfouryearsoffinalapproval.

v. Usersoftheprojectionshouldbeawarethatatanypointintime,sealevelriseisacontinuingtrendandnotanendpoint

vi. Theaccelerationofsealevelrisecanbeslowedandthemagnitudereducedbyactionstoreducegreenhousegasemissions

III. Adoptiona. ThisdocumentwasadoptedbytheSEFLregionalclimatechangecompactstaffsteeringcommittee

onMay6,2011forusebytheregionalclimatechangeworkgroupsindevelopmentoftheSEFLregionalclimatechangeactionplan

Source:www.broward.org/NaturalResources/ClimateChange/Pages/SoutheastFloridaRegionalClimateCompact.aspx



DevelopmentofanAdaptationToolboxtoProtectSoutheastFloridaWaterSuppliesfromClimateChange

I. Purposea. ConnectionbetweensustainablewatersuppliesandEvergladesrestorationb. OutlinepotentialeffectsofSLRscenariosforcoastalsoutheastFloridaanddevelopatoolboxof

optionsforadaptationforwater,wastewater,andstormwaterutilitiestoapplyc. Developedmilestonestotriggerinfrastructureinvestments,asclimatechangesmayoccurmore

rapidlyormoreslowlythancurrentlyprojectedII. ClimatechangeinFlorida

a. Temperaturesarehigher,butextremesaregreaterb. Additionalresearchandhigh‐resolutionclimatemodelingfortheFloridapeninsulaisneededc. GlobalprojectionsofSLRof2‐4feetby2100areinlinewiththeresultsseenfromtheFLstationsd. SouthFloridaamongtheworld’smostvulnerablecoastalregionstoclimatechangee. Risingseasalsomeansrisinggroundwater,somoreintenserainfallwillincreasetheriskof

flooding,notonlyinthelow‐lyingcoastalareas,butalsointheinteriorfloodplainsduetothelossofsoilstoragecapacityforpercolation

f. PrimarygoalofCERPistorestorethenaturalfreshwaterflowtotheeverglades,whichbecomesevenmoreimperativeinlightofpotentialSLRimpacts

III. Toolstoprotectwaterresourcesa. Installlocalstormwaterpumping

i. Localizedpumpingstationswillneedtobeinstalledtodrainwatertoreduceponding.b. Waterconservation

i. Usefulinreducingtheneedforexpansionofwatersuppliesc. Armoringthesewersystem

i. Aneffectiveinfiltrationandinflowreductionprogramwillcombattheneedforexpensivemembranetreatmentforwaterreclamationintheshortterm

d. Wastewaterreclamationandreusee. Aquiferrecharge

i. Variousmethodsofrechargingsurficialaquifers:1. Stormwaterdiversiontoimpoundmentslocatedonpermeableland2. Treatedwaterdischargeintosurfacewatersforaquiferrecharge3. Directinjectionoftreatedstormwaterorsurfacewaterfromreservoirs4. Percolationpondsorwetlandsusingtertiarytreatedwastewater5. Directinjectionofhighlytreatedwastewaterusingreverseosmosis

f. Protectionofexistingwatersourcesi. Limitingwellfieldwithdrawalsandcoastalsalinitystructures,horizontalwells,and

hydrodynamicbarriersg. Desalinationh. Aquiferstorageandrecovery

i. Managementtool(notalternativewatersupply)andregionalizationofalternativewatersuppliesandreclamationprojects

Source:http://www.evergladeshub.com/lit/pdf11/Bloetscher11envRev19‐397‐417‐ProtectWatSupClimChge.pdf



U.S.STATES

California

HazardMitigationPlan

Sealevelriseisaprofiledhazardbutisgroupedwithcoastalfloodinganderosion.Potentiallossesareoutlinedandcurrentmitigationactionsarediscussed.Therearealsoboxesfromthe2010updateabouttheprogressionofSLR,coastalfloodinganderosionactions.TheyalsofullyprofileClimateRelatedHazardswhichincludeavalanches,coastalflooding,coastalerosion,sealevelrise,droughtsandwatershortagesandextremeheat.

Projects:

LocalCoastalPrograms

o Analyzetheeffectsof55inchsealevelriseanditsimplicationsforcoastalerosion

VulnerabilityofTransportationSystems

o Identifyimpactsoffloodingontunnels,andairportrunways,washoutofcoastalhighwaysandraillines,andsubmersionofdockandportfacilitiesfroma55‐inchriseinsealevel.

SanFranciscoBayConservationandDevelopmentDistrict(BCDC)ClimateChangePlanningProgram

o Updatesealevelrisemapstoshowareasvulnerableto16inchesofsealevelriseatmid‐centuryand55inchesattheendofthecentury.Developstrategiesforadaptingtoadynamicandchangingbay.Provideplanningassistancetolocalgovernments

Source:http://hazardmitigation.calema.ca.gov/plan/state_multi‐hazard_mitigation_plan_shmp



CAClimateChangeRegulation

I. Primarilyfocusesonmonitoringgreenhousegasemissionsandshiftingtorenewableenergyresources

II. Governor’sExecutiveOrder#S‐13‐08addressessealevelrise

a. DirectsstateagenciestoplanforsealevelriseandclimateimpactsthroughcoordinationofthestateClimateAdaptationStrategy

Source:http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/



2009CaliforniaClimateAdaptationStrategyReporttotheGovernor

I. Projections:

a. 12‐18inchesby2050

b. 21‐55inchesby2100

c. Thisprojectionaccountsfortheglobalgrowthofdamsandreservoirsandhowtheycanaffectsurfacerunoffintotheoceans,butitdoesnotaccountforthepossibilityofsubstantialicemeltingfromGreenlandortheWestAntarcticIcesheet,whichwoulddrivesealevelsalongtheCAcoastevenhigher

II. Objectives:

a. Analyzeclimatechangerisks

b. Identifysector‐specific,andcross‐sectoraladaptationstrategiesthathelpreducevulnerabilities

c. Explorecross‐cuttingsupportivestrategies

d. Formalizecriteriaforprioritizingidentifiedadaptationstrategies

e. Specifyfuturedirection

f. Providerecommendationsforimmediateandnear‐termprioritiesforimplementingidentifiedadaptationstrategies

g. InformandengagetheCApublicaboutclimaterisksandadaptationstrategies

III. Keyrecommendations:

a. AClimateAdaptationAdvisoryPanel(CAAP)willbeappointedtoassessthegreatestriskstoCAfromclimatechangeandrecommendstrategiestoreducethoserisksbuildingonCA’sClimateAdaptationStrategy

b. CAmustchangeitswatermanagementandusesbecauseclimatechangewilllikelycreategreatercompetitionforlimitedwatersuppliesneededbytheenvironment,agriculture,andcities

c. Considerprojectalternativesthatavoidsignificantnewdevelopmentinareasthatcannotbeadequatelyprotected(planning,permitting,development,andbuilding)fromflooding,wildfire,anderosionduetoclimatechange.

d. Allstateagenciesresponsibleforthemanagementandregulationofpublichealth,infrastructureorhabitatsubjecttosignificantclimatechangeshouldprepareasappropriateagency‐specificadaptationplans,guidance,orcriteriabysept.2010

e. Allsignificantstateprojects,includinginfrastructureprojects,mustconsiderthepotentialimpactsoflocatingsuchprojectsinareassusceptibletohazardsresultingfromclimatechange.

f. TheCAemergencymanagementagency(CalEMA)willcollaboratewithCNRA,theCAT,theEnergyCommission,andtheCAAPtoassessCA’svulnerabilitytoclimatechange,identifyimpactstostateassets,andpromoteclimateadaptation/mitigationawarenessthroughtheHazardMitigationWebPortal,andMyHazardsWebsiteaswellasotherappropriatesites

g. UsingexistingresearchthestateshouldidentifykeyCAlandandaquatichabitatsthatcouldchangesignificantlyduringthiscenturyduetoclimatechange

h. Thebestlong‐termstrategytoavoidincreasedhealthimpactsassociatedwithclimatechangeistoensurecommunitiesarehealthytobuildresiliencetoincreasedspreadofdiseaseandtemperatureincreases

i. Themosteffectiveadaptationstrategiesrelatetoshortandlong‐termdecisions

j. Statefirefightingagenciesshouldbeginimmediatelytoincludeclimatechangeimpactinformationintofireprogramplanningtoinformfutureplanningefforts



k. Stateagenciesshouldmeetprojectedpopulationgrowthandincreasedenergydemandwithgreaterenergyconservationandanincreaseduseofrenewableenergy

l. Existingandplannedclimatechangeresearchcanandshouldbeusedforstateplanningandpublicoutreachpurposes;newclimatechangeimpactresearchshouldbebroadenedandfunded

Source:http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation/



SeaLevelRiseAdaptationStrategyforSanDiegoBay

I. ProjectPartners

a. ICLEI–LocalGovernmentsforSustainabilityUSA

b. TheSanDiegoFoundation

c. TijuanaRiverNationalEstuarineResearchReserve–CoastalTrainingProgram

II. Projections

a. Between10‐17inchesin2050and31‐69inchesin2100

III. Theassessmentwasconductedthroughacombinationofmodeling,mapping,andintensiveconsultationwiththeproject’sTechnicalAdvisorycommittee

IV. Nextsteps

a. Manyoftherecommendationsinthisstrategyareintendedforconsiderationandimplementationineachoftheparticipatinglocaljurisdictionsintheirownplanningprocesses

i. suchasClimateMitigationandAdaptationPlansintheCityofSanDiegoandPortofSanDiego,andinbayfrontplanninginChulaVista

b. BoththePortofSanDiegoandtheCityofSanDiegoaredevelopingadaptationpoliciesintheirclimateactionplans,targetedforadoptionin2012,andtheCityofNationalCityalsorecentlyadoptedaclimateactionplan

V. GuidingPrinciplesandDevelopmentprinciples

a. EstablishedtoaligntheregionwiththeState’sapproach

VI. Planningprocessdeliverables

a. Existingconditionsreport

b. Vulnerabilityassessment

c. Policyrecommendations

d. Adaptationstrategy

Source:http://www.icleiusa.org/climate_and_energy/Climate_Adaptation_Guidance/san‐diego‐bay‐sea‐level‐rise‐adaptation‐strategy‐1/san‐diego‐bay‐sea‐level‐rise‐adaptation‐strategy



GoletaBeach2.0:ManagedRetreattoMitigateCoastalErosion

I. Projectsummary/overview

a. In2009,theGoletaBeach2.0Conceptplanningprocesswasestablishedtoreexaminemanagedretreatoptionsfortheparkinordertomitigatecoastalerosion

b. GoletaBeach2.0managedretreatmayprovetobethemostresilientstrategyforthebeachassealevelrises

c. Twomajorstrategies:

i. Astructuralsolution

ii. Majorretreat

d. Environmentalreviewpickedstructuresolution(i.e.permeablepieraddition)aspreferredoption

e. CAcoastalcommissionvotedinjuly2009toturndowntheplan

i. Toldtorethinkretreatoption

II. Projectoutcomeandconclusions

a. Severalareasthatarevulnerabletocoastalerosion

i. Primeerosionzone

ii. Majorutilitylines(withinthosezones)

b. ConfiguredtenfutureactionstoenhanceGoletaBeachCountyPark

c. GoletaBeach2.0hasnotyetresultedinaspecificengineeringplan,butithasoutlinedaconceptualplanthatwillleadtoanengineeringproposalandenvironmentalreview

Source:http://www.countyofsb.org/parks/parks07.aspx?id=16864



SanFranciscoBayConservationandDevelopmentCommission

I. RoleofBayPlan

a. ServesasmandatorystatepoliciesthatareenforcedbytheCommissionthroughitsregulatoryauthority

b. SomeBayPlanpoliciesaredeclarationsoftheCommission’sintentiontoundertakefuturestudiesorplanning

c. Otherpoliciesofferadvicetolocalgovernments,otheragencies,andorganizationsindealingwithBaymanagementissues

d. BothstatelawandtheBayPlanstipulatethatanysuchrecommendationsareadvisoryonlyandcannotbeenforcedbytheCommission

II. ChangessincepreviousamendmentstoBayPlan

a. IPCC–representsawiderangeofscientificopinion,itsconclusionsaregenerallyconservativebutwidelyaccepted

b. Effectsofclimatechangearenowbeingobserved

c. Researchdeterminesthatclimatechangeislargelycausedbyhumans

Source:http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/



ChulaVista,California:AdaptationPlanningwithNoBudgetandNoExperience

ChulaVista’sclimatechangeadaptationplanwasdevelopedin2011.Itrecommended11strategiesinsevenfocusareastohelpthecityadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange.Thefocusareasare:infrastructureandresources;energymanagement;publichealth;businessandeconomy;watermanagement;wildfires;andecosystemsandbiodiversity.

I. ProcessofInstitutionalization

a. In2008,theSanDiegoFoundationcommissionedastudycalledFocus2050,modeledonthestudybythesamenameundertakenforKingCounty,Washington.Thestudyusesclimatechangeprojections,generatedbyscientistsattheScrippsInstitutionofOceanography,toexplorewhattheSanDiegoregionwillbelikein2050ifcurrenttrendscontinue.

i. TheFocus2050reportwasvitalbecauseitdistilledthetechnicalinformationaboutclimatechangeimpactsintheregionandmadeitdigestibleforabroaderreadership

b. In2010,ChulaVistabegantoworkondevelopinganadaptationPlan

i. FormedtheClimateChangeWorkingGroup(CCWG)comprisedofresidents,businesses,nonprofits,andcommunityorganizationrepresentatives

c. In2011,theCCWGrecommended11strategiesin7focusareastohelpthecommunityadapttotheimpactsofclimatechange.

i. TheConservationDepartment,abranchoftheDepartmentofPublicWorks,hasspearheadedtheprocessofinstitutionalization

d. Afterdevelopingthestrategies,theworkinggrouphostedapublicforumwheretheypresentedinformationaboutclimatechangeonposterboards,andthepubliccouldaskquestionsandgivefeedback

II. Whomadeithappen?

a. TheResourceConservationCommission(RCC)–astanding,city‐council‐appointedcommittee–playedakeyroleininstitutionalizingtheadaptationplan

III. Progressreport

a. AsofOctober2011,“ofthemorerecent11climateadaptationstrategiesandtheir30associatedimplementationcomponents,onlyonecomponentdealingwithstormwaterpollutionpreventionandreuseandtwocomponentsdealingwithbiologicalmonitoringhavebeendelayedduetofundingshortages”

Source:http://www.chulavistaca.gov/clean/conservation/Climate/ccwg1.asp



Delaware

TheCityofLewes:HazardMitigationandClimateAdaptationActionPlan

LewesparticipatedinProjectImpactaninitialFEMAhazardmitigationeffort.Thepilotprojectresultedinthefirst‐evercommunityactionplanthatsuccessfullycombinesthetwoplanningprocesses.TheCitycreatedaMitigationPlanningTeam,auniquegroupabletohelpthecitymitigatetheeffectsofnaturalhazards.ThusfartheCityhashadgreatsuccessinwildfiremitigationanddisasterpreparednessefforts.

I. PurposeandGoal

a. Increaseoverallawareness

b. EnhancetheunderstandingofLewes’vulnerabilitytoclimatechange

c. ProvideassistanceandguidancetotheCityofLewestodevelopaplanforhazardmitigationandclimateadaptationthatwillimprovecommunitysustainabilityandresiliency

d. Designamethodologythatcombineshazardmitigationplanningandclimatechangeadaptation

e. Createafinalactionplanthatthecitycanusetoimplementthechoseninitiatives

II. Implementationguidance

a. Alignmentwithexistingprioritiesandco‐benefits

b. Administrationandstaffing

c. Potentialimplementationsteps

d. Timelineinformation

e. Financingandbudget

f. Monitoring

III. Rangeofregionalclimatecondition:sealevelrise

a. Globaloreustaticsealevelriseisbasedontherisingwatersduetothethermalexpansionofwaterandthemeltingofland‐basedicecommonlycalledglaciers.

i. TheIPCCestimatedthatglobalsealevelrisewillincreasefrom0.59ftto1.9ftbasedsolelyonthermalexpansionofwater(IPCC,2007,p.45).However,manyscientistsconsidertheseestimatestobelowdueinparttothefactthattheydonotincludeglacialmelt.Morerecentestimatesthatincorporateadditionalcomponentsofsealevelrise,includingland‐basedicemelt,suggestthateustaticsealevelrisecouldbeashighas4.6ft

b. ThehistoricsealevelriseobservationsandtrendforLewesindicatesthatLeweshasseenabout1foot(0.32m)ofsealevelriseoverthepastcentury.

IV. theStateofDelaware’sDepartmentofNaturalResourcesandEnvironmentalControliscurrentlyworkingwiththerangeoffuturesealevelrisebetween1.6ftand4.9ftby2100forplanningpurposes

Source:http://www.ci.lewes.de.us/Hazard‐Mitigation‐Climate‐Adaptation‐Action‐Plan/



PreparingforSLRDevelopmentofaSLRInitiativeSLR Initiative Project Compendium September 2011

I. MissionofDelawareCoastalProgramsSection

a. Topreserve,protect,develop,andenhancetheresourcesofourcoastalzonethrougheffectiveadministrationoftheDelawareCoastalManagementProgramandtheDelawareNationalEstuarineResearchReserve

i. Managescoastalresourcesthroughinnovativeresearchprojects,grantprograms,andpolicydevelopment

ii. Administersthecoastalzonefederalconsistencycertificationprogram

iii. Providesspecialareamanagementprogram

iv. Providesassistancetostateandlocalgovernmentsforlocallanduseplanning

v. Offersotherspecialon‐the‐groundprojectsrelatedtoDelaware’scoastalresources

II. Predictions

a. BasedontheUSClimateChangeScienceProgram’s2009documentwhichrecommendsthatstatesshouldprepareforsealeveltorisebyatleastonemeterby2100

b. CurrentrateofSLRmeasuredbyatidegaugeinLewesDelawareis13inchesper100years

III. SLRInitiativegoal:

a. Providingscientificandtechnicalsupportfordecision‐making

b. Implementingon‐the‐groundprojectinpartnershipwithstakeholders

c. Providingeducationalandoutreachopportunitiesforstakeholdersandthepublic

d. Improvingexistingpoliciesandmanagementpracticesand/ordevelopingnewpoliciesandmanagementpracticeswherenecessary

IV. PurposeofSLRInitiativeCompendiumofProjects

a. Toprovideanat‐a‐glanceinventoryoftheprojectsandinitiativesthatarebeingconductedaspartoftheDECoastalPrograms’SLRInitiative.Itisintendedtohelpincreasecollaborationbetweenagencies,reduceredundancy,andoverlapinprojectsrelatingtoSLRandtorelayinformationaboutnew(orsoontobeavailable)data,information,andtools

V. ScientificandTechnicalSupport

a. DECoastalProgramshavepartneredwiththeNationalWildlifeRefugeSystem,theUniversityofDE,localEstuaryprograms,andotherstateagenciestofillgapsinourknowledgeaboutcoastalstorms,tidelevels,andmarshsedimentaccretion

b. Projects/Studies

i. BombayHookHydrology/sedimentmovementstudy

ii. CoastalImpoundmentAccretionRateStudy

iii. CoastalMonitoringGapAnalysis

iv. CoastalStormHistory

v. DevelopmentofCoastalInundationMaps

vi. DigitalCoast

vii. HydrologicMonitoringoftheKittsHummockArea

viii. MarshLossAnalysis(interiorOpenWaterCreation)



ix. MarshVulnerabilityIndex

x. PrimeHookNWRSalinity/Nutrient/Sediment/Waterlevelstudy

xi. SedimentElevationTables

VI. Implementation

a. DECoastalProgramsstaffhavepartneredwiththeCityofNewCastleandtheTownofBowersBeachtohelpthemimprovetheirpreparednessforcoastalstormsandfutureSLR

b. Projects:

i. CityofNewCastleCoastalResiliencyProject:dikemaintenanceandimprovementplan

ii. DevelopmentofacoastalfloodmonitoringsystemforDE

iii. Developmentofacoastalresiliencyactionplanforbowersbeach

VII. PolicyDevelopment

a. DevelopmentofaStatewideSLRAdaptationPlan

b. Mid‐AtlanticRegionalCouncilontheOceans(MARCO)

i. DE,NY,NJ,MD,andVA

c. SustainableCoastalCommunities–incorporationofcoastalhazardandnaturalresourceconsiderationsintolocalcomprehensiveplans

VIII. Communication,training,andpublicinvolvement

a. Comprehensivemarketing&outreachstrategyforSLR

b. SLRMapViewer

c. StatewideSurveytogaugepublicknowledgeandopinionsonSLRanditsimpactinDE

Source:http://www.dnrec.delaware.gov/coastal/Documents/SeaLevelRise/SLRCompSept2011.pdf



DevelopmentofaCoastalResiliencyActionPlanforBowersBeach,DEA Plan to Address Existing and Future Coastal Hazards

I. Background:

a. Projectisdesignedtoassistthecommunityintheireffortstoreducehazardvulnerabilitythatcurrentlyexistsandthatcouldpotentiallyincreaseinthefutureduetotheimpactsofclimatechange

II. ProjectGoal

a. Todevelopacommunity‐wideactionplanthatincreasetheresiliencyofBowersBeach,DEtothecurrentandfutureaffectsofcoastalstormsandclimatechange

b. Developaproactiveplanthatoutlinesthespecificvulnerabilitiesofthecommunityandthebestactionstobepursuedtoaddresstheseissues

III. WorkPlan

a. Analyzethephysical,social,economic,andenvironmentalvulnerabilityatthecommunitylevel

b. Phase1:datacollectionandsynthesis

i. Identifywhereoutsideexpertiseshouldbebroughtintoprovideadditionaltechnicalassistance

c. Phase2:vulnerabilityassessment

i. Willincludedetailedworkshopstoconductamoredetailedvulnerabilityassessment

ii. TheassessmentwillbeusedasaguidefordevelopingmitigationstrategiesandprioritizingmitigationprojectstobeincludedintheBowersBeachCoastalResiliencyActionPlan

d. Phase3:strategydevelopment

i. Willutilizethedetailedresultsofthevulnerabilityassessmenttodevelopafinalprioritizationofneedsandasetofstrategiestoaddresstheseneeds

e. Phase4:implementation

i. Longtermefforttoimplementtheactionplan.

Source:www.dnrec.delaware.gov/coastal/Documents/CoastalResiliency/Bowers%20Beach%20Grant%20Project.pdf



Georgia

SLROnGA’sCoast:AStudyfromtheRiver

I. PurposeofStudy

a. In2008,theRiverBasinCenterwasawardedathree‐yeargranttoresearchtheimpactsofSLRontheGeorgiacoastandprovideguidanceforfuturedevelopmentofthearea

II. Methods:

a. Computermodelwascreatedtoforecasttheresultsofa1meterriseinsealevelby2100

b. UsedSeaLevelAffectingMarshesMode(SLAMM)

III. Findings:

a. FirstyearfocusedontheGeorgiacoastasawhole,definedbythe6countiesofChatham,Bryan,Liberty,McIntosh,Glynn,andCamden

b. Thestudyalsoprovidedaerialimagesofhowspecificcoastlinesmaybeaffected

IV. Next

a. TheRiverBasinCenteriscurrentlydevelopingaguidancedocumentthatwillassistgovernmentofficialsinplanningforfuturedevelopmentalongtheGeorgiacoastline

Source:http://www.georgiaconservancy.org/uploads/Coast/SeaLevelRise‐fact_sheet‐lowres.pdf



TybeeIsland

TheUniversityCarlVinsonInstituteofGovernmentandGeorgiaSeaGrantaredevelopingaclimateadaptationplanforthebarrierislandcommunityofTybeeIslandthroughfundingfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration.

Therecommendationsdevelopedbytheproject,titledtheSeaGrantCommunityClimateAdaptationInitiative,willhelptheCityofTybeeIslandprepareforandadapttosealevelrisethroughappropriatelocalordinances,infrastructuralimprovementsandothermunicipalactions.

Source:http://georgiaseagrant.uga.edu/article/5_8_12_Tybee/



Louisiana

RecommendationsforAnticipatingSea‐LevelRiseImpactsonLACoastalResourcesduringProjectPlanningandDesign

Objectiveofthetechnicalreportistomakerecommendationsforincorporatingsea‐levelriseintotheplanningandengineeringofhabitatrestorationandstormprotectionprojects.

TheTechnicalReportrecommendsthatCPRAstaffassumethatGulfsea‐levelrisewillbe1meter(3.3’)by2100,withaboundingrangeof0.5‐1.5meters(1.6/‐4.9’).Thisneedstobecombinedwithpredictionsofsubsidenceandmarshverticalaccretion.(Bothofwhicharenottheprimarysubjectofthepaperduetotheirevolvingnature.)

I. Objective

a. theobjectiveofthetechnicalreportistomakerecommendationsforincorporatingsea‐levelriseintotheplanningandengineeringofhabitatrestorationandstormprotectionprojects

i. summarizesthestateofthescienceonpatternsofincreasetosupportrecommendations

ii. describehowrecommendedratesoflocalsea‐levelriseshouldbecombinedwiththehighlyvariablespatialpatternsincoastalsubsidenceandwetlandverticalaccretiontopredictrelativesea‐levelriseatspecificpointsintheLAcoastalzone

II. Historicalsea‐levelrise

a. Theyhavechosentofollowtheweightofscientificopinionthatsea‐levelriseisinfactaccelerating

III. Projectionsoffuturesea‐levelrise

a. SuggestsanassumptionthatGulfsea‐levelrisewillbe1meter(3.3’)by2100,withaboundingrangeof0.5‐1.5meters(1.6’‐4.9’)

b. Consistentwithothersimilareffortsongoinginotherstates

IV. SumofFactorsinfluencingsea‐levelrise

a. ThechangeinthesurfaceelevationchangeoftheGulfofMexico

b. Locallandsurfaceelevationchange,whichinLAisexclusivelyrepresentedassubsidence

c. Marshverticalaccretion,whichcanoffsetsomesea‐levelriseimpacts

V. SummaryandRecommendations

a. SLRfortheavailableperiodofrecordisbestrepresentedasasingle,non‐linearfunction,whichhasimportantimplicationsforrelatingRSLRandGSLRestimates,andespeciallyforassumptionsofthedifferentialrepresentinglocallandsurfacechange

b. Uselocalobservationsofhistoricalsea‐levelrisefromcontemporarysatellitealtimetryjustoffshoreofcoastalLA,inordertoaccountforthesubstantialeast‐westgradientindocumentedrates

c. CalculatetheaccelerationconstantthatassumesaMSLincreaseof1meterby2100asthemostheavily‐weightedprojectalternative,whilealsotestingMSLincreaseof.5metersand1.5meterstoaccountforuncertaintyintheliterature

d. Addinlocalsubsidencevaluesobtainedfromthemostproximatelocalsource

e. Usethesumoftheabovethreeelementstoestablishaninundationfunction,especiallytherateofinundationfortheperiodofanalysis,inordertopredictlocalresponseofmarshverticalaccretionasthosemodelsanddataproductsbecomeavailable

Source:http://coastal.louisiana.gov/index.cfm?md=pagebuilder&tmp=home&pid=240



Maryland

CommissiononClimateChange

OnApril20,2007,GovernorMartinO’MalleysignedExecutiveOrder01.01.2007.07establishingtheMarylandCommissiononClimateChange(MCCC).TheMCCCwaschargedwithdevelopingaClimateActionPlantoaddressthedriversandconsequencesofclimatechange,toprepareforitsensuingimpactsintheState,andtoestablishfirmbenchmarksandtimetablesforPlanimplementation.Toaccomplishitsgoals,theMCCCworkedwiththeCenterforClimateStrategiesinconductinganextensivestakeholder‐basedprocess.Thisprocessusedpublicinputtoformulate,analyze,andbuildconsensusforforty‐twomitigationandnineteenadaptationpolicyrecommendationsforthestateofMarylandtopursue.TheMCCCcompleteditsworkinAugust2008withthereleaseofitsfinalClimateActionPlan(2008Plan).SinceAugust2008,MarylandStateagencieshavebeenworkingtoimplementeachoftheforty‐twomitigationstrategiesandnineteenadaptationstrategiesthroughthedevelopmentofanimplementationplanforeachofthepolicyrecommendations.OneofthePlan’spolicyrecommendations,toadoptscience‐basedregulatorygoalstoreduceMaryland’sgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions,wasrealizedwiththepassageoftheGreenhouseGasEmissionsReductionActof2009(GGRA).ThelawrequiresMarylandtoreduceitsGHGemissionsto25percentbelow2006levelsby2020.ItdirectstheMarylandDepartmentoftheEnvironmenttoworkwithotherleadStateagenciestoprepareanimplementationplantomeetthisgoalasafirststeptowardachievinglongertermscience‐basedreductions.AninterimplanwillbesubmittedtotheGovernorandtheGeneralAssemblyduringthe2012legislativesession,andthefinalplan(GGRAPlan)willbesubmittedonorbeforeDecember31,2012.TheGGRAPlanbuildsonthe2008PlanandensuingimplementationworkoftheStateagencies.

Source:http://www.mdclimatechange.us/



Maryland’sCoastalZoneEnhancementPlan:CoastalZoneManagementActSection309AssessmentandStrategy2011‐2015

I. ChesapeakeandCoastalprogram(CCP)

a. In2007thestateofMarylandconsolidatedtheadministrativeandmanagementfunctionsoftheCZMAandEPAsection117awardsaswellasState’sChesapeakeandAtlanticCoastalBaysTrustFundtoasingleprogram–CCP

b. Theprogramisbetterabletoleveragecorecompetenciesfromdifferentprograms,avoidduplicateefforts,leverageandefficientlyprioritizeresourcestoadvancethegoalsoftheCZMA

c. CCPisadministeredbytheStateDepartmentofNaturalResources

i. Partnershipamongthelocal,regional,andstateagencies

ii. Alsocollaborateswithmanyprivateorganizationssuchaslocallandtrustsandeconomicdevelopmentgroups

d. CCPconductsresearch,providestechnicalservicesanddistributesfederalandstatefundstoenableon‐the‐groundprojectsthatbenefitMaryland’scoastalcommunities

II. SelectAccomplishments

a. Thisisthe4thassessmentandstrategythattheMarylandprogramhassubmittedunderSection309ofthefederalcoastalzonemanagementact

b. Theoverallgoalsofthe2006‐2010section309strategywereto:

i. Integratecoastalhazardplanningintostateandlocalprogramsandpolicies

ii. Improvetheunderstandingandmanagementofnearshoreresources

iii. Developaframeworkforfutureoceanplanningandmanagementefforts

iv. AdvanceCZMAgoalsrelatedtocumulativeandsecondaryimpactsatthelocalcommunitylevel

c. InApril2007–establishedtheMarylandCommissiononClimateChange(MCCC)

d. InAugust2008,theMCCCreleasedtheState’sClimateActionPlanwhichincluded19policyrecommendationsaimedatreducingtheState’svulnerabilitytosealevelriseandcoastalstorms

e. ListskeyimplementationactivitiesforthosepolicyrecommendationsasofSeptember2010

Source:http://www.dnr.state.md.us/ccp/funding/pdfs/SFY13_TrustFundAnnualReport.pdf



Massachusetts


Outlines“ClimateChangeImpacts”asafuturenaturalhazard.Itoutlinessomeofthebackgroundaswellasprojectionsforincreasedtemperatureandprecipitation,riskstopublichealthandharmfromsealevelrise.ItalsotalksabouttheMassachusettslawthe“GlobalWarmingSolutions”Act.

Projects:

MassachusettsOfficeofCoastalZoneManagement’sStormSmartCoastsProgram

o Thisisatechnicalassistanceprogramthatwasdesignedtohelpcommunitiesaddressthechallengesarisingfromerosion,storms,floods,sealevelrise,andotherclimatechangeimpacts.Theprogramoperatesontwolevels–awebsitethatprovidesasuiteoftoolsforsuccessfulcoastalfloodplainmanagementanddirecttechnicalassistancetocommunitiesthroughitspilotprojectsprogram

Source:http://www.mass.gov/eopss/docs/mema/disaster‐recovery/mass‐haz‐mit‐plan2010‐official.pdf



NewHampshire

Keene,NewHampshire:TheEconomicsofEnergyEfficiency

Keenefirstdevelopedaclimatemitigationplanin2004.Itwasfollowedin2007byaclimateadaptationplan.ThecityworkedwithICLEI–LocalgovernmentsforSustainabilitytoproducebothoftheplans.TheclimateadaptationplanhasbeenincorporatedintoKeene’smasterplanand,byextension,intootherkeyplansanddecisionsthattierfromthemasterplan.

Becauseadaptationstrategiesareincorporatedintothemasterplan,allcityplansandordinancesthattierfromthemasterplanmustalsoconsiderclimatechange.Forexample,everyyearthecityrevisitsitscapitalimprovementsplanthatprojectsmajorcapitalfacilitiesneedssixyearsout.Theoperatingbudgetprocessissimilar,eachdepartment’soperatingbudgetmusthaveatiebacktothemasterplan,forcingaconversationaroundsustainabilityandclimateadaptation.

Source:http://www.ci.keene.nh.us/sites/default/files/KeeneReport_ICLEI_FINAL_v2_1.pdf



NewYork


TheStatePlandoesnottalkaboutsealevelrise.However,itrecommendsthatwhenconductingariskassessmentaJurisdictionevaluate(1)thelikelihoodofaneventoccurring,(2)theimpactonthepopulation,and(3)theimpactonpropertywithintheJurisdiction.Jurisdictionsshouldalsotakeintoaccounttheaffectthatclimatechangemayhaveontheirvulnerabilitytoeachhazard,forexampleincreasedfrequencyofoccurrenceand/orseverity.

Source:http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/about/planning_hazard_mitigation.shtml



NorthCarolina


Thisplanmentionssealevelriseunderlongtermhazards.Thissectionisroughly4pagesexplainingclimatechange,sealevelrise,changesinweatherpatterns.Withintheseitexplainstheimpacts,addressingclimatechangeandwhatNCwilldotoaddressclimatechange.

Source:http://www.nccrimecontrol.org/index2.cfm?a=000003,000010,001623,000177,002107,001563



NorthCarolinaSea‐LevelRiseAssessmentReport

ReportontheknownstateofSLRforNorthCarolina.Askedthefollowingquestions:anexplanationofhowSLRismeasured;relativeSLRrangesfordifferentsectionsoftheNorthCarolinacoast;relativeSLRrangesforNorthCarolinaexpressedintimeslicesforyears2025,2050,2075,and2100;relativeSLRratecurvesforNorthCarolinathrough2100;discussionofconfidenceinterval;recommendationsforwhatneedstobedoneforimprovedSLRmonitoringinthestateofNC;andrecommendationsastohowfrequentlythestateofNCshouldupdateitsprojectedSLRrangesandrates.

I. Data

a. IPCC4thassessmentreportcontainsforecastsforglobalaverageSLRrangingfrom.18metersto.59metersbytheyear2100

b. ThereisconsensusthattherateofSLRwillincreaseduringthe21stcenturyandbeyond

II. Factorsinfluencingsealevelrise

a. Globalsea‐levelchange

b. Localverticallandmovements(subsidenceoruplift)

c. Changesintidalrange

d. Changesincoastalcurrents

e. Changesinwatertemperature

f. Gravitationaleffects

III. 4studiesprovidedataonratesofRSLriseinNorthCarolina

a. Firstthreestudiesutilizegeologicaldatawhereasthestudycoveringtheshortesttimeintervalutilizesinstrumentaldata

b. Cumulativedatafromthese4investigationsindicatethatRSLchangevariesasafunctionoflatitudealongtheNCcoast,withhigherratesofriseinthenorth,andlesserratesofriseinthesouth

c. Thisisafunctionofthelocalgeologyaswellasdifferentialcrustalsubsidenceanduplift

d. Panelhaschosentousethetidegaugedataforprojectionsbecausethetidegaugedatarepresentsamoredirectindicatorofsealevel

IV. Projections

a. TheIPCCreportsrelyonemissionsscenariosasthebasisforprojectingfutureSLRranges

b. RecommendationofthePanelthatasinglesetofsea‐levelcurvesbeadoptedforplanningpurposes

c. PanelfeelsmostconfidentinthedataretrievedfromtheDuckgauge,givenitsinstallation,continuouslengthofserviceandlackofinfluencebymaritimenavigationprojects

d. PanelbelievesthattheRahmstorfmethodisrobustand1.4metersisareasonableupperlimitforprojectedrise

e. Panelrecommendsthatariseof1meterbeadoptedastheamountofanticipatedraseby2100,forpolicydevelopmentandplanningpurposes

V. Recommendations

a. BelievesthatanaccelerationintherateofSLRislikely

b. Recommendedthatthelong‐termtidalobservationsbemaintainedandnewstationsaddedtothelong‐termrecordtoprovidebettergeographiccoverageofourcoast



c. New,better‐distributedwaterlevelgaugesaremaintainedorinstalledtodeveloplong‐termrecords

d. Inotherareasnewwaterlevelgaugesshouldbeinstalledtoachievecomprehensivegeographiccoverage

e. Stateshouldconsiderinstallingtidemonitoringstationsintheestuarinesystem,andestablishingaprogramforcontinuouslymonitoringandmeasuringlandsubsidenceonthecoastalplain

Source:http://dcm2.enr.state.nc.us/slr/NC%20Sea‐Level%20Rise%20Assessment%20Report%202010%20‐%20CRC%20Science%20Panel.pdf



NorthCarolinaDENRClimateChangeInitiativeStrategyFramework

Thegoalofthisinitiativeistoaddressclimatechangeinacomprehensiveway,usingmitigationandadaptationstrategiestoincreaseresilienceofNorthCarolina’sresourcestothesecomplexchanges.

I. Steps:

a. Developafocusedapproachtoaddressclimatechangepolicyactionsatstate,regional,andfederallevels

b. Identifyshort‐term,mid‐term,andlong‐termpotentialimpacts

c. Coordinatestrategieswithotherlocal,state,federal,andnongovernmentalpartners

II. ClimateChangeMitigationStrategies

a. Reducehuman‐inducedcontributionstoclimatechange,suchasgreenhousegasemissions,asrecommendedbytheClimateActionPlanAdvisoryGroup

b. Becomeanenvironmentalleaderinenergyandwaterefficiencyandcarbonmanagement

III. ClimateChangeAdaptationStrategies

a. Proactivelyprepareforandadapttochangeswecantprevent

b. DevelopacomprehensiveadaptationstrategyacrossDENRprograms,toeffectivelyidentifyandaddresspotentialimpactstotheenvironmentandnaturalresourcesthatDENRischargeswithprotecting

c. Sealevelriseadaptation:goalsandobjectives

i. Coastalhabitatprotectionplan

1. Underway:updatecoastalhabitatprotectionplantoaddressclimatechangeimpactsoneachhabitattype

ii. Coastalmanagement

1. Completed:conductapublicsurveytoassessstateresidents’perceptionsaboutsealevelrise,itsthreatstotheNCcoast,andwhatactionrespondentsthinkshouldbetakentoprepareandadapt

2. Underway:holdapublicscienceforumtopresentthecoastalresourcecommissionreport

3. Underway:developapubliceducationandoutreachcampaign

4. Underway:monitorandassessvariableratesofsealevelriseatsentinelsitesonrepresentativecoastalecosystemsindifferentregionsofNCcoastandinformresourcemanagementdecisionsatreservesitesandinNCcoastalcommunities

iii. Climatereadyestuaries

1. Underway:assessgeneralpublicandpublicofficials’awarenessandconcernaboutclimatechange,sea‐levelrise,andpossibleactions

2. Underway:developacommunicationsstrategyforoutreachandengagementinthetargetedcounties

3. Underway:createblueprinttobuildaclimatereadyestuarysystemwithstepstoimprovethearea’sresilienceandadaptationcapacity

4. Underway:recommendpriorityactionsforComprehensiveConservationandManagementPlantoAPNEPPolicyBoard

5. Underway:coordinatestrategieswithothercoastalprograms(CHPP,DCM)



6. Underway:workwithregionalandfederalpartnersonclimatechangeadaptationactions(NCCF,TNC,EPA,NOAA)

Source:http://www.climatechange.nc.gov/pages/ClimateChange/NCDENR_Climate_Change_Initiative_strategy_framework_June_2010.pdf



Oregon

OregonGlobalWarmingCommission:ReporttotheLegislature2011

I. Summary

a. Updateonsuccessoflegislatedclimatechangeactions

b. StateagenciescollaboratedwitheachotherandOCCRI(OregonClimateChangeResearchInstitute)toproducethefirstcomprehensiveOregonpolicyframeworkforclimatechangeadaptationplanninginDecember2010

c. Workedwithstateagenciesandlocalgovernmentstoimplementexistingpoliciesandcommentingonfederalclimatechangepolicies

II. Goals:

a. 2020–10%below1990levels

b. 2050–75%below1990levels(nearly90%below2010levels)

III. Transformationalthemes:theNextBigIdeas

a. Embedcarbonintheplanningprocess

b. Embedcarboninthepriceofenergy–partialrelianceoncarbontaxes

c. Leveragetheinherentcarbonefficienciesofcities–“completecommunities”

d. Leveragetheinherentcarbonefficienciesofbuildings–zeronetcarbonbuildingdesignsarebeingdemonstrated

e. Rampdownoil,shifttransportationloadstoelectricityandgas

f. Rampdowncoal,shiftelectricloadstoefficiencyandrenewable

g. Capturecarbonacrosstheboard

h. Totalof169recommendationsinthefullInterimRoadmapto2020report

IV. KeySectors

a. Energy

b. Transportationandlanduse

c. Industrial

d. Agriculture

e. Forestry

f. Materialsmanagement

Source:http://www.oregon.gov/energy/GBLWRM/docs/OGWC_2011_Leg_Report.pdf?ga=t



SouthCarolina

ShorelineChangeInitiative


a. AimstoimproveupontheexistingregulatorycoastalmanagementframeworkestablishedbytheBeachfrontManagementActof1988

b. 23experts,includingscientists,managers,planners,andnon‐governmentalrepresentativesformedtheshorelinechangeadvisorycommittee

II. Implementation

a. Overviewofexistingshorelineregulationsandfourgoalsand13specificactionstoimprovecoastalmanagementinSC

b. Goals:

i. Minimizerisktobeachfrontcommunities(5recommendations)

ii. Improvetheplanningofbeachrenourishmentprojects(3recommendations)

iii. Maintainprohibitionsandfurtherrestricttheuseofhardstabilizationstructures(3recommendations)

iv. Enhancethemanagementofshelteredcoastlines(2recommendations)

III. Outcomesandconclusions

a. StaffwillreviewrecommendationsandprovidespecificresponsestohelplocalandstateofficialsdevelopacoordinatedshorelinemanagementresponsetoSLR,coastalstorms,anderosion

Source:http://www.scdhec.gov/environment/ocrm/shoreline_change.htm



Texas


I. Mentionedbrieflyincoastalerosionhazard.

II. Projects:

a. None

Source:http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/documents/txHazMitPlan.pdf



Washington


Sealevelriseisprofiledasanimpactofclimatechange.Thereisabriefdiscussionoftheproperty,jurisdictionsandbusinessesatrisk.

Projects:

None

Source:http://www.emd.wa.gov/plans/washington_state_hazard_mitigation_plan.shtml



PreparingforaChangingClimate:WashingtonState’sIntegratedClimateResponseStrategyDepartment of Ecology

WashingtonStateisaddressingthechallengeofclimatechangeandhasadoptedpoliciestoreduceenergyuse,limitgreenhousegasemissions,andbuildacleanenergyeconomy.Thedocumentlaysoutaframeworktoprotecttheircommunities,naturalresources,andeconomyfromtheimpactsofclimatechangeandbuildtheircapacitytoadapttoexpectedclimatechanges.

I. DocumentStructure

a. DescribesexistingandnewstatepoliciesandprogramsthatbetterprepareWAtorespondtotheimpactsofclimatechange

b. Callsonstateagenciestomakeclimateadaptationastandardpartofagencyplanningandtomakescientificinformationaboutclimatechangeimpactsreadilyaccessibletodecisionmakersinthepublicandprivatesectors

c. Recommendsthatstateagenciesstrengthenexistingeffortsandbuildpartnershipstohelplocalandtribalgovernments,privateandpublicorganizations,andindividualsreducetheirvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeimpacts

II. Strategiesandactionsforthefollowingareas:

a. Humanhealth

b. Ecosystems,species,andhabitats

c. Oceanandcoastlines

d. Waterresources

e. Agriculture

f. Forests

g. Infrastructureandthebuiltenvironment

h. Researchandmonitoring

i. Climatecommunication,publicawareness,andengagement

III. Predictions–SLR

a. RelativeSLRwillbegreatestinsouthPugetSoundandleaseonthenorthwesttipoftheOlympicPeninsula

b. PugetSound:mediumestimateis6inchesby2050and13inchesby2100

c. CentralandSouthernWAcoasts:mediumestimateis5inchesby2050and11inchesby2100

d. OlympicPeninsula:mediumestimateis0inchesby2050and1inchesby2100

e. Increasesofupto3feetforthenorthwestOlympicPeninsula,3.5feetforthecentralandsoutherncoast,and4feetforPugetSoundby2100cannotberuledoutatthistimeduetolargerangesforacceleratingratesoficemeltfromGreenlandandAntarctica

Source:https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/publications/publications/1201004b.pdf



Olympia,Washington:VulnerabletoSeaLevelRisefromClimateChange

I. Olympia’sconcernandpolicy

a. DowntownOlympiasitsatonly18‐20feetabovesealevel,makingitvulnerabletorisingsealevels

b. CityofOlympiahasdevelopedavarietyofstrategiestoreduceitsvulnerabilitytofloodingofthedowntownareaduetosealevelrise

i. Intheearly1990s,thecitycouncilpassedaresolutionforthecitytomitigateandprepareforclimatechange

ii. Mapsandsimulationmodelswereproducedtoshowtheeffectsonthecityofrisingsealevelsduetoclimatechange

iii. ThecitycouncilcreatedaninterdepartmentalGlobalWarmingTaskForce

iv. Thetaskforcerecommendedshort‐termactionandlong‐termactionplans.Longtermincluded:

1. Updatingthecomprehensiveplanstoaddresstheimpactsofsealevelrise,increasingtheheightoftheseawall,anddevelopinganinstitutionalframeworkforaddressingclimatechange

II. Whatwastheprocess

a. TheGlobalWarmingTaskForce’sfirstassignmentwastoprepareabackgroundreportontheimplicationsofclimatechangeforOlympia

b. ThefinalreportidentifiedwheretheCityofOlympiahadauthoritytoact,stepsthecityhadalreadytaken,andpossiblefutureactions

c. Thisfindingpromptedthecitytoundertakeafollow‐upreport,releasedin1993,called“thepreliminaryassessmentofsealevelriseinOlympia,Washington:TechnicalandPolicyImplications”whichmorespecificallyidentifiedrisingsealevelsandpotentialfloodingasaproblem

d. In2009,theClimateImpactsGroupreleased“theWashingtonClimateChangeImpactsAssessment”withupdatedregionalsealevelrisepredictionsfor2100

i. Thepredictionsvaried,fromanincreaseof2inchesto50inches

e. Citycouncilplayedakeyroleininstitutionalizingtheclimateadaptationpolicies

Source:http://olympiawa.gov/community/sustainability/climate‐change



COUNTRIES

Australia

QueenslandCoastalPlanI. Implementation

a. Themanagementpoliciesareprimarilyintendedtobeimplementedbythemanagersofstateandlocalgovernmentcontrolledcoastallandandownersofprivatecoastalland.

b. Thestateplanningpolicy(SPP)willinformfutureregionalplansaswellaslocalgovernmentplanningschemesanddecisionsondevelopmentapplications.

c. forthoselocalgovernmentswhosejurisdictionincludespartofthecoastalzone,theSPPwillalsoprovidedetailedguidanceabouthowtodesignandlocaldevelopmenttoavoidcoastalhazardrisks‐especiallythoseincreasedbyclimatechangerelatedsea‐levelrise

II. ReviewoftheStatePolicyforcoastalmanagement

a. areportwillbeprovidedonthestateofthecoastzoneatleasteveryfouryearsaspartofQueensland’scomprehensivereportonthestateoftheenvironment.

b. reportwillincludeanassessmentoftheconditionsofcoastalresourcesandevaluatetheefficiencyandeffectivenessofcoastalmanagementstrategies,programs,andactivitiesinrelationtotheprotection,restoration,andenhancementofthecoastalzone

III. ApplicationofSPP

a. coastalhazards(CH)

i. specificpolicyoutcome:

1. communitiesanddevelopmentareprotectedfromadverseCHimpacts,takingintoaccounttheprojectedeffectsofclimatechange,theprotectivefunctionofthenaturalenvironment,andthepreferenceforallowingthenaturalfluctuationsoftheforeshoreandforeshoreecosystemstocontinue

ii. definingcoastalhazardareas

1. CHareasaretobeidentifiedinaccordancewiththemethodologysetoutintheCHguidelinesusingthefollowingfactorstoaccountfortheprojectedimpactsofclimatechangebytheyear2100:

a. asea‐levelrisefactorof0.8meters&anincreaseinthemaximumcycloneintensityby10percent

2. reviewofthemethodologyintheCHguidelineandthefactorstoaccountfortheprojectedimpactsofclimatechangewillbeinitiatedwithin6monthsofeitherthe

a. releaseofanewassessmentreportbytheUNIPCCthatreferstoglobalemissions,temperature,orsea‐levelrisetrends

iii. developmentlimitedincoastalhazardareas

iv. developmentlimitedinerosionproneareas

v. developmentonlyallowedincertainareasifcongruentwithcoastalprotectionwork

vi. developmentlimitedspecificallyinhighandmediumcoastalhazardareas

Source:http://www.derm.qld.gov.au/coastalplan/



Canada

HalifaxClimateSMART:TheClimateSustainableMitigationandAdaptationRiskToolkit


a. Twogoals

i. TodevelopaplantoreduceHRM’sgreenhousegasemissions

ii. Tocreateamanagementplantopreparethemunicipalityforprojectedclimatechangeimpacts

b. Overallobjective:

i. Mainstreamclimatechangemitigationandadaptationstrategiesintooverallmunicipaldecision‐making

c. Intendedtoserveasaprototypeforfutureprojects

II. Projectimplementation

a. Toolkittohelpguidethemunicipalitytomainstreamclimatechangemitigationandadaptationintooverallmunicipaldecisionmaking

b. Includes:

i. Riskassessmenttool

ii. Community‐basedvulnerabilityassessmentandriskmanagementtool

iii. Cost/benefitassessmenttool

iv. Environmentalimpactassessmenttool

v. Communicationsandoutreachtool

c. OriginalobjectivesoftheClimateSMARTinitiativehavebeencontinuedbyvariousgroupsinanadhocfashion

d. Projectoutcomesandconclusions

i. Overallobjectives:

1. ReduceHRM’sgreenhousegasemissions

2. IncreaseHRM’sresiliencetoclimatechangethroughavulnerabilityassessmentandincorporatedadaptationmeasures

3. IncorporateextremeweathereventanddisasterpreparednessinHRM

Source:http://www.halifax.ca/climate/



Tasmania

ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessmentandAdaptationPlanningforMangroveSystems

I. Backgrounda. TheIPCC4thassessmentprojectedaglobalsealevelriseofupto.59mby2099,andsubsequent

authoritieshaveprojectedupto1mormore.b. MangroveaccretionratesareusuallylessthantheseprojectedratesofSLR,resultingindiebackat

theseawardedgeandinlandmigrationc. Proceduresareneededtoassessthevulnerabilityofmangrovesystemstoclimatechangeimpacts;

toplanactionsthathelpthosesystemsadapttothoseimpacts;andtosupportadaptationeffortsbymangrove‐dependentcommunities

II. Purposea. Methodsmanualisintendedforusebyconservationpractitionersandmangrovemanagerstocarry

outanassessmentofmangrovevulnerabilitytoclimatechange,leadingtoinformedandeffectiveadaptationplanning

b. Objectives:describemethodologiesandgiveexamplesforcarryingoutsuchavulnerabilityassessment;andtodemonstratehowtheresultscanbeanalyzedandappliedtoprioritizeadaptationactions

c. Thismanualprovidesguidanceforeachofthecomponentslistedbelowonwhatitis,whytodoit,hottocollectdata,howtoanalyzeresults,howtointerpretvulnerability,andwhatarethecomponent’sstrengthsandlimitations

III. Methods a. Agencies:GlobalEnvironmentalFacility,UNEnvironmentalProgramme,andWorldWildlifeFundb. Testedmangrovevulnerabilityassessmentmethodologiesandadaptationstrategiesin3countries:

Cameroon,Tanzania,andFijiIV. Pilotprojects:

a. Involvedinterdisciplinarydatacollectionusingbothhighandlowtechnologymethodsandanalysisofhoweachmethodhelpedtounderstandthevulnerabilityofaparticularmangroveecosystem

b. Alsousedthesevulnerabilityassessmentresultstoidentifyandtestarangeofadaptationoptionsc. Findingsguidedthedevelopmentofthisgeneralizedmethodology

V. MangroveClimateChangeVulnerabilityassessmentMethodologyComponents:a. Forestassessmentofmangrovesb. Recentspatialchangesofmangrovesc. Groundelevationsinandhindmangrovesd. Relativesealleveltrendse. Sedimentationratesundermangrovesf. Adjacentecosystemresilienceg. Climate(rainfall)modelingh. Compilationoflocalcommunityknowledge

VI. Synthesizingdataa. Vulnerabilityrankingbasedonresultsfromeachcomponentb. Facilitatestheidentificationofadaptationactionsthatreducetheidentifiedvulnerabilitiesand

increaseresiliencec. Threecategoriesofaction:reductionofexistingthreats,directadaptationactions,andongoing

monitoring

Source:http://worldwildlife.org/publications/climate‐change‐vulnerability‐assessment‐and‐adaptation‐planning‐for‐mangrove‐systems



MISCELLANEOUS

FEMAClimateChangeAdaptationPolicyStatement

Purposeistoestablishanagency‐widedirectivetointegrateclimatechangeadaptationplanningandactionsintoAgencyprograms,policies,andoperations.

I. Challengesposedbyclimatechange

a. Couldsignificantlyalterthetypesandmagnitudesofhazardsfacedbycommunitiesandtheemergencymanagementprofessionalsservingthem

b. Impactsonmitigation,prepardedness,response,andrecoveryoperations

c. Resiliencyofcriticalinfrastructureandvariousemergencyassets

d. Climatechangecouldtriggerindirectimpactsthatincreasemissionrisks

II. 7initialactionstohelpintegrateclimatechangeadaptationconsiderationsintoourprogramsandoperations

a. Toenhanceclimateresearch,monitoring,andadaptationcapabilities,FEMAwillcontinuetoestablishpartnershipswithotheragenciesandorganizationsthatpossessclimatescienceandclimatechangeadaptationexpertise

b. FEMAwillcontinuetostudytheimpactsofclimatechangeonthenationalfloodinsuranceprogram(NFIP)andincorporateclimatechangeconsiderationsintheNFIPreformeffort

c. FEMAwillevaluatehowclimatechangeconsiderationscanbeincorporatedintograntinvestmentstrategieswithspecificfocusoninfrastructureandevaluationmethodologiesortoolssuchasbenefit/costanalysis

d. FEMAwillseektounderstandhowclimatechangewillimpactlocalcommunitiesandengagetheminaddressingthoseimpacts

e. FEMAwillpromotebuildingstandardsandpractices,bothwithinFEMAprogramsandingeneral,thatconsiderthefutureimpactsofclimatechange

f. Throughpartnershipswiththeclimatesciencecommunity,FEMAwillevaluatethepotentialimpactclimatechangemayhaveonexistingriskdataandthecorrespondingimplicationsforThreatHazardIdentificationRiskAssessment(THIRA)developmentandoperationalplanning

g. FEMAwillcontinuetopursueaflexible,scalable,wellequipped,andwelltrainedworkforcethatiseducatedaboutthepotentialimpactsofclimatechange

Source:http://stormsmart.org/wp‐content/blogs.dir/1/files/group‐documents/22/1328980794‐FEMACCAPolicyStatement12312.pdf



IncorporatingSeaLevelChangeScenariosattheLocalLevelNOAA

I. Scenarioapproach

a. Usingtheinformationprovided,communitiescandevelopaprocessthatincorporatesarangeofpossibilitiesandfactors.Withthisinformationvariousscenarioscanbedeveloped,bothintermsofprojectionsandresponses,tomeetthespecificcircumstancesofacommunity.Moreover,workingthroughthescenariodevelopmentprocessprovidesthedataandinformationthatofficialswillneedtomakecommunitiesreadilyadaptabletochangingcircumstances

II. Definethecontext

a. Whattypeofplanisbeingdeveloped

i. Consideringarangeofpossibilitieslendsitselftotheadaptivemanagementstylerequiredinachangingenvironment

b. Whatscaleismeaningful

i. Localprojectionsshouldbeusedformostlocalandregionalcoastalplanningandmappingapplication

c. Whatisthecurrentpoliticalenvironment

i. Adaptivescenariosincorporatecomponentsthataremeasured(highlylikely)andthosethatarepredicted(lesscertain)

III. Determinewhichcomponentstoincludeinlocalprojectionscenarios

a. Mostscenariosarebasedonacombinationofhistoricallocalinformation,globalrates,andmodelsthatpredictfutureconditions

IV. Researchwhatothercommunitiesaredoing

V. Calculatesealevelchangescenarios

a. Scenariosthatincorporateglobalprojectionsandlocalchangerates

b. Scenariochosenshouldberelevanttothetimescaleofdecisionsbeingmade

c. Theselectedsealevelchangeincrementsshouldbederivedfromareputablesourceandtheverticaldistancebetweenincrementssupportedbytheverticalaccuracyofthelandelevationdata,particularlyifmapsofsealevelchangewillbeproduced

VI. Understanduncertainty

VII. Considerchangestofloodfrequencyandduration

a. Officialsmustfactorsinallcurrentflood‐producingevents,becausesealevelrisewilllikelyincreasethereach,frequency,anddurationof“normal”flooding

b. Tideheights,stormsurge,extremewaterlevels

VIII. Considerpotentialimpacts

IX. Communicatetheimpacts

a. Encouragethecitizenstobecomeknowledgeableandinvolvedintheprocess

b. Visualization

i. NOAA’sCoastalCountySnapshots:www.csc.noaa.gov/snapshots

ii. SeaLevelRiseandCoastalFloodingImpactsViewer:www.csc.noaa.gov/SLR

Source:http://csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/publications/slcscenarios



ProtectingthePublicInterestthroughtheNationalCoastalZoneManagementProgram:HowCoastalStatesandTerritoriesUseNo‐BuildAreasalongOceanand

GreatLakeShorefrontsNRDC

I. StudyPurpose

a. TobetterunderstandandcommunicatehowstatesCMPs(CoastalManagementPlans)manageoceanandGreatLakeshorefrontdevelopment

b. Looksspecificallyatwherestatesareemployingshorefrontno‐buildareastoprotectthepublicinterest

c. AcompilationofthelawsandregulationsofthosestateswithfederallyapprovedCMPsthatincludeno‐buildareas,typicallyondry,privatelyownedland,alongtheiroceanand/orGreatLakeshorefrontsastheywereineffectinDecember2011

d. Reportsconsidersalooseandbroaddefinitionof“development”thatincludesresidentialstructures,hotels,motels,commercialestablishments,industrialfacilities,andthelike

II. Findings

a. 94%ofthe33coastalstateswithfederallyapprovedCMPshavearoleinregulatingshorefrontdevelopmentondryland

b. 81%ofthestatesthatregulateoceanorGreatLakeshorefrontdevelopment(outsideofsubmergedlands)employno‐buildareasalongsomeportionoftheirshorefront

c. Today,roughly36%ofthestatesthatemployno‐buildareasareusingerosionratestodelineatethemalongsomeportionoftheirshorefront

d. Inadditiontoerosionrates,shorefrontno‐buildareasaredelineatedanddefinedbasedon:

i. Fixeddistancesmeasuredhorizontallyfromreferencefeaturesthatrangefrom20to200feet

ii. Designatednaturalresourceareas,suchasbeaches,dunes,andbluffs

iii. Otherareasdesignatedbasedonplanecoordinatesormappeddistrictsorzones

e. OnlyMaineexplicitlyfactorsthepotentialforincreasesinSLRduringthe21stcenturyintoaprovisionthatestablishesthestate’sshorefrontno‐buildareas

Source:http://coastalmanagement.noaa.gov/resources/docs/nobuildareas.pdf



AnAssessment:PolicyToolsforLocalAdaptationtoSLR

I. Location:MarinePolicyInstituteatMoteMarineLaboratory

II. LeadAgencies:

a. GulfCoastCommunityFoundationofVenice


a. high‐levelfoundationforfuturediscussionsoftheeffectsofglobalclimateonwater

Source:http://www.mote.org/clientuploads/MPI/Synopsis‐Policy%20Tools%20for%20Local%20Adaptation%20to%20Sea%20Level%20Rise(fin).pdf



AdaptingtoClimateChange:APlanningGuideforStateCoastalManagers

I. Location

a. NOAA‐OfficeofOceanandCoastalResourceManagement


a. ThepurposeofthisguideistohelpU.S.stateandterritorial(state)coastalmanagersdevelopandimplementadaptationplanstoreducetheimpactsandconsequencesofclimatechangeandclimatevariability(climatechange)intheirpurview.ItwaswritteninresponsetoarequestfromstatecoastalmanagersforguidancefromtheNationalandOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)onadaptationplanninginthecoastalzone.Itisintendedasanaid,notasaprescribeddirective,andastatemaychoosetouseindividualstepsorchaptersortheentireguide,dependingonwheretheyareintheplanningprocess.

Source:http://coastalmanagement.noaa.gov/climate/docs/adaptationguide.pdf



IncreasingCommunityResiliencetoFutureHurricaneStormSurgeCollaborative Decision Support in Sarasota, FL

I. LeadAgencies

a. PennStateUniversity

b. USGeologicalSurvey


a. Thegoaloftheproposedresearchistodevelopamethodologythathelpslocalgovernmentofficialsandplannersunderstandarangeofoptionsthatallowcoastalcommunitiestogrowtheirpopulationsanddeveloptheireconomiesandinfrastructureswithlessriskofsignificantlossfromfuturehurricanestormsurges.Toreachthatgoal,theinvestigatorswillconductacasestudybasedinSarasota,Floridawheretheywillworkwithofficials,planners,andotherstakeholderstoincludescenariosofsealevelriseinlong‐rangeplanningactivitiesandextendthoseactivitiestohorizonsmoreinlinewithsealevelriseprojections.

Source:www.cpo.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo_pa/cpo_pa_index.jsp&pa=sarp&sub=projects/abstracts/2007/byarnal.jsp



EffectsofNear‐termSLRonCoastalInfrastructure

I. LeadAgencies

a. StrategicEnvironmentalResearchandDevelopmentProgram(SERDP)

b. EnvironmentalSecurityTechnologyCertificationProgram(ESTCP)


a. Theprimarygoalofthisprojectistoquantifythepotentialimpactandrisktocoastalmilitaryinfrastructurefromnear‐termsea‐levelriseandtheattendantincreasesinhurricaneactivity.Specificobjectivesinclude:(1)identifyandquantifytheresponsesofcoastalsystemcomponentstosea‐levelriseoverthenextcentury;(2)refinealarge‐scalenumericalmodelforquantifyingthehazardrisktocoastalmilitaryfacilities;(3)developprobabilitymodelsforquantifyingandmanaginguncertainty;and(4)enablecost‐effectivemitigationandadaptationstrategies.

Source:http://www.serdp.org/Program‐Areas/Resource‐Conservation‐and‐Climate‐Change/Climate‐Change/Vulnerability‐and‐Impact‐Assessment/RC‐1700



ImplicationsofTakingsLawonInnovativePlanningForSeaLevelRiseinTheGulfofMexico

I. LeadAgencies

a. TexasSeaGrant

b. FloridaSeaGrant

c. LouisianaSeaGrant

d. Mississippi/AlabamaSeaGrantConsortium


a. Thisprojectwillspecificallyseektoaddressthisfearthrough(1)legalanalysisofexistingtakingsjurisprudenceandlaws,(2)developmentoflegalargumentsthatconsidertheimperativeofsea‐levelrise,and(3)identificationanddevelopmentofspecific,innovativelandusepoliciesdesignedtowithstandtakingsclaims.

b. InPhaseIoftheproject,theco‐PIswillprovideafresh,comprehensiveexaminationoftakingslawinFlorida,Alabama,Mississippi,Louisiana,andTexastoprovideafoundationforaddressingthesourceofregulatoryhesitancyinPhaseIIanddevelopinginnovativelanduseplanningpoliciesforadaptationtotheGOM’schanginglandscapeinboththeshortandlongtermthatareresistanttotakingsclaimsinPhaseIII.

Source:http://www.masgc.org/page.asp?id=511



AParameterizedClimateChangeProjectionModelforHurricaneFlooding,WaveAction,EconomicDamages,andPopulationDynamics

I. LeadAgencies

a. TexasSeagrant

b. FloridaSeagrant

c. LouisianaSeagrant

d. Mississippi/Alabamaseagrantconsortium

II. Projectgoal

a. Ourprojectgoalistoquantifythepotentialimpactofsealevelriseandhurricaneintensificationonhurricane‐inducedeconomicdamagesandonpopulationdynamicsatthecoast.

III. Objectives

a. Todevelopageneral,parameterizedresponsemodelforhurricanefloodelevationandwavedamagepotentialasafunctionofSLRandhurricaneintensification.

b. TodeterminepotentialaccelerationinhurricanefloodelevationandwaveheightprobabilityasafunctionofSLRandhurricaneintensification.

c. Todeterminepotentialaccelerationinhurricane‐inducedeconomicdamagesandpopulationaffectedatthecoastduetoacceleratingfloodelevationandwaveheightprobability.

d. Todeterminepotentialshortandlong‐termshiftsinpopulationdynamicsatlocalandregionallevelsaswellasthesocioeconomicdimensionsofsuchshifts.

Source:http://www.masgc.org/page.asp?id=509



WorldResources2010‐2011:DecisionMakinginaChangingClimate–AdaptationChallengedandChoices

I. LeadAgencies

a. WorldResourcesInstitute(WRI)

b. UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme

c. UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme

d. WorldBank

II. Projectdescription

a. This publication explores five key elements ‐ public engagement, decision‐relevant information,institutional design, tools for planning and policymaking, and resources ‐ that we believe willsignificantlystrengthentheabilityofnationalgovernmentstomakeeffectiveadaptationdecisions.Ourargumentsforwhydecisionmakersshouldfocusontheseelementsarebasedupontheresultsofawide‐rangingandinteractiveresearchprogram.Over100adaptationexperts,publicofficials,sector‐based practitioners, and civil society representatives, from more than 30 countries,contributedtoourresearcheffort.

III. Project/actions/conclusions

a. Updatingthecomprehensiveplanstoaddresstheimpactsofsealevelrise,increasingtheheightoftheseawall,anddevelopinganinstitutionalframeworkforaddressingclimatechange

Source:http://pdf.wri.org/world_resources_report_2010‐2011.pdf



StateandLocalGovernmentsPlanforDevelopmentofMostLandVulnerabletoRisingSeaLevelalongtheUSAtlanticCoast

I. Overview

a. Onthebasisof131stateandlocallanduseplans,weestimatethatalmost60%ofthelandbelow1meteralongtheUSAtlanticcoastisexpectedtobedevelopedandthusunavailablefortheinlandmigrationofwetlands

b. Resultssuggestthatshoreprotectiondoeshaveacumulativeimpact.IfSLRistakenintoaccount,wetlandpoliciesthatpreviouslyseemedtocomplywithfederallawprobablyviolatetheCleanWaterAct

c. Thislettermapsandquantifiesabaseline,business‐as‐usualscenarioofcoastaldevelopmentandshoreprotectionfortheAtlanticcoastoftheUSfromMAtoFL.

II. Purpose

a. Withthisanalysis,plannersfromthelocaltonationallevelcanassesstheextenttowhichcoastalwetlandsmightmigrateinlandorbelost(andidentifyinfrastructurethatwouldeventuallyrequireremedialattention)andthenevaluateotheroptions

III. Predictions

a. GlobalSLRofapproximately20‐60cmduringthe21stcenturyifpolaricesheetsremainstablebutpossiblymorethan1meterificesheetsbecomeunstable

b. Twopathways:shoreprotectionandretreat

IV. ResultsandImplications

a. Consideringourentirestudyarea,42%ofthedrylandwithin1meterabovethetidalwetlandsisdevelopedandmostlikelytobeprotectedgivenbusiness‐as‐usual

b. Almost60%ofthelowestdrylandislikelytobedevelopedandeventuallyprotectedasSLR.

c. Bycontrast,only9%ofthislandhasbeensetasideforconservationpurposesthatwouldallowcoastalecosystemstomigrateinland

d. Mapsprovidedbythisstudycanserveasaninitialbenchmarkforevaluatingtheenvironmentalconsequencesofthebusiness‐as‐usualresponsetoSLRandpossiblealternativesthatwouldbetterpreservetheenvironmentandcomplywiththelaw.

Source:http://iopscience.iop.org/1748‐9326/4/4/044008/fulltext/



HotspotofAcceleratedSea‐LevelRiseontheAtlanticCoastofNorthAmerica

I. Researchpurposea. PresentsevidenceofrecentlyacceleratedSLRinaunique1,000‐kmlonghotspotonthehighly

populatedNorthAmericanAtlanticcoastnorthofCapeHatterasandshowthatitisconsistentwithamodeledfingerprintofdynamicSLR

II. Findingsa. Between1950‐1979and1980‐2009,SLRrateincreasesinthisnortheasthotspotwereabout3‐4

timeshigherthantheglobalaverageb. Theyanalyzedtide‐gaugerecordsalongtheNorthAmericanAtlanticcoastforincreasingratesof

SLRIII. Results

a. SLRsuperimposedonstormsurge,waverun‐up,andset‐upwillincreasethevulnerabilityofcoastalcitiestoflooding,andbeachesandwetlandstodeterioration

Source:http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1597.html



SLRHORIZONYEARANDPROJECTIONSTABLE

Year and Location Minimum (or Median)

Maximum

2025: SW/Charlotte Harbor, FL 1.8 11.3

2025: Treasure Coast, FL 2.8 10.7

2030: FL DOT 3 7

2030: SE FL Compact 3 7

2050: CA 12 18

2050: Central & South WA 5

2050: Olympic Peninsula, WA 0

2050: Puget Sound, WA 6

2050: San Diego 10 17

2050: San Fran 16

2050: Satellite Beach, FL 24

2050: South Florida 5 20


2050: Tampa Bay, FL 1.8 11

2060: FL DOT 9 24

2060: SE FL Compact 9 24

2075: SW/Charlotte Harbor, FL 5.3 34

2100: Aus 31

2100: CA 21 55

2100: Central & South WA 11

2100: DE 13

2100: Florida 20 39

2100: Georgia 39.6

2100: LA 39.6

2100: Lewes, DE 19.2 58.8

2100: NC 39.6

2100: Olympic Peninsula, WA 1

2100: Puget Sound, WA 13

2100: San Diego 31 69

2100: San Fran 55

2100: Sarasota County, FL 31.5 79

2100: SE Florida 24 48


2100: Tampa Bay, FL 3.9 26

2100: Treasure Coast, FL 21 177.3

2150: East Central FL 12

2200: Tampa Bay, FL 8.7 77



SLRPROJECTIONSGRAPH

0 50 100 150 200

2025: SW/Charlotte Harbor, FL

2025: Treasure Coast, FL

2030: FL DOT

2030: SE FL Compact

2050: CA

2050: Central & South WA

2050: Olympic Peninsula, WA

2050: Puget Sound, WA

2050: San Diego

2050: San Fran

2050: Satellite Beach, FL

2050: South Florida


2050: Tampa Bay, FL

2060: FL DOT

2060: SE FL Compact


2100: Aus

2100: CA

2100: Central & South WA

2100: DE

2100: Florida

2100: Georgia

2100: LA

2100: Lewes, DE

2100: NC

2100: Olympic Peninsula, WA

2100: Puget Sound, WA

2100: San Diego

2100: San Fran

2100: Sarasota County, FL

2100: SE Florida


2100: Tampa Bay, FL

2100: Treasure Coast, FL

2150: East Central FL

2200: Tampa Bay, FL

SLR in Inches

Year and Location

Minimum (or Median)

Maximum