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Applications 2020

Gartner The Future of IT Conference

October 4-6, 2011 Centro BanamexMexico City, Mexico

Jeff Woods

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Applications 2020

No cloud computingNo cloud computing

Maybe a small SaaS SFA deployment in some outlying sales team

Apple … PowerPC processors + new fangled iPod thing

Mobility meant Outlook synch (not Exchange) with a Palm device

Enterprise application provider universe still expanding

Eighteen percent annual maintenance fees were considered high

Social software = email

Open source largely an operating system phenomenon

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Applications 2020

Any API exists as a connecting point between a developer and a particular product It is also in many cases with WebAny API exists as a connecting point between a developer and a particular product. It is also, in many cases with Web APIs, the connecting point between a consumer and a product or service. Enterprise IT organizations have benefited from the expanding universe of accessible APIs. Initially, this was driven as part of the build vs. buy dynamics that have been driving IT decision making for nearly two decades. Many products don't simply function as a specific solution to a problem, but in many regards act as a packaging mechanism to deliver APIs to developers. The same principle holds true with many packaged business applications. The focus on the developer-API connection has expanded as enterprise IT organizations have invested in service-oriented architecture (SOA) initiatives and has evolved as Web-oriented architectures evolve and Web APIs proliferate.architectures evolve and Web APIs proliferate.

But far less considered by enterprise IT are the reasons organizations allow programmatic access to their products. In large part, the reasons stem from the underlying market fragility of a piece of software. Software products that become the centerpiece of a connected ecosystem of developers and end customers are far more sustainable over the long term. Ultimately, providers are much less interested in selling products than they are in creating platforms. And platforms can evolve into value chain systems in their own right.

The dynamics that drive the creation of new APIs and the fading of others are becoming more pronounced and more

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profound. Enterprise IT organizations must increasingly understand this landscape in order to make intelligent decision on where to allocate their resources.

Applications 2020

One reason why enterprise IT organizations need to be more aware of the driving factors around API creationOne reason why enterprise IT organizations need to be more aware of the driving factors around API creation is the emerging two-speed API market. On one hand, we have the enterprise software market which, as a result of ongoing consolidation, is able to deliver a comprehensive set of APIs which are increasingly integrated and stable. In fact, it is important for IT organizations to understand that most business applications decisions are, in fact, implied platform decisions.

But, on the other side of the coin is the consumer-oriented world with its own set of APIs. This is especially challenging when it comes to the world of mobile computing Apple has it's own set of APIs relating to suchchallenging when it comes to the world of mobile computing. Apple has it s own set of APIs relating to such things as gesture interfaces. But at the same time, Android has another set. The very nature of the consumer market means that the potential of any platform is highly fluid, because users can rapidly switch allegiances.

Both stream of APIs are unavoidable. Yet they operate on completely different principles and completely different time frames.

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Applications 2020

What makes this environment even more complex is that the API game is no longer being played only by IT providers The growing use ofWhat makes this environment even more complex is that the API game is no longer being played only by IT providers. The growing use of microprocessor technology in products outside general purpose computers, along with advances in cloud computing, has enabled any organization to start creating its own APIs. This is occurring in nearly every industry. Three things are key to understanding this:1. The mass proliferation of APIs from non-IT providers will be impossible for enterprise IT organizations to put into context for their

organization. But more individuals outside the IT organization that will recognize opportunities to exploit specific APIs for specific solutions. Tools are increasing available to allow these people to mashup these services to achieve those objectives. Gartner refers to the trend of end-users creating their own solutions as "citizen development."

2. Each of these API providers, IT industry or otherwise, is seeking to achieve the outcomes we described a few slides ago. The number of platform plays across industries will radically increase with software as the key mechanism to achieve these outcomes.p p y y y

3. Nothing is stopping your organization from doing the same thing. Increasingly, enterprise IT organizations will be called on to facilitate the creation of their own platform initiative to achieve strategic business objectives.

Some examples include:• Healthcare: The Welch Allyn Device Connectivity SDK provides developers the ability to communicate with and collect data from Welch

Allyn electronic medical devices. • Government: Open311 is the emerging international standard for this kind of citizen reporting technology and is opening up existing 311

services using more collaborative web-based technologies. Aadhaar is India's ambitious project to provide a unique identification number to every citizen It employs the UIDAI Authentication API as a an SDK for its various subsystems

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every citizen. It employs the UIDAI Authentication API as a an SDK for its various subsystems• Manufacturing: Feature-rich, open APIs will be critical to the future of 3D printing. APIs will allow people to quickly share, print, remix, and re-share models quickly — across platforms modeling programs — leading to new kinds of collaboration and innovation in 3D printing.

Applications 2020

But with so many platform plays all driven off a common set of objectives there is a risk that the success of one organization can create problemsBut with so many platform plays, all driven off a common set of objectives, there is a risk that the success of one organization can create problems for others. When an organization becomes successful in defining and dominating an area of core competency, it can result in a highly dependent commercial relationship among other organizations in a value chain. This creates a clear risk. An organization controlling an area of core competency can exploit the dependency of others to garner a larger share of proceeds of a value chain. The only recourse a dependent firm has traditionally had, if an organization exploits their dominance of a specific core competency, is to seek the best commercial terms possible. But an alternative approach is emerging. As long as there is a critical mass of organizations or individuals that is similarly affected, they can band together to reproduce the core IP that underpins the targeted organization's market dominance. "Collective competency" is an approach in which the responsibility for a specific activity or outcome is vested with an informal affiliation of individuals or organizations whose participation is secured only because each member has a vested interest in doing so. In the software industry many of these types of solution are based on open source models and some relevant examples include:models and some relevant examples include:

• The TriSano Initiative — TriSano is a highly configurable, comprehensive public health data application. It allows local, state, federal and international agencies to identify, investigate and mitigate communicable and chronic diseases, environmental hazards, and bioterrorism events. It was initially a joint project between state health administrations and universities in Utah, U.S., and is now spreading outside that jurisdiction.

• Indivo — Indivo is the original personally controlled health record (PCHR) system, which enables an individual to own and manage a complete, secure, digital copy of her health information. It was initially driven by the Children's Hospital Boston and the Dossia Consortium.

• The Sakai Project — A suite of software for high education initially developed as a joint project by four U.S. universities and now being used and extended by more than 350 higher education institutions around the world.

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• OpenX — An alternative Web-based advertising platform to the dominate position of Google.

But collective competency can be seen across other industries and across all forms of IP assets. There is the Eco-Patent commons for alternative energy solutions, Biological Information for an Open Society in life sciences, Open Garment in manufacturing and also GS1 in retail.

Applications 2020

Pace layering provides a mechanism for using appropriate comparison mechanisms depending on the layerPace-layering provides a mechanism for using appropriate comparison mechanisms depending on the layer. Systems of record have long persistence and represent massive investments, so investments to deal with demands for change tend to be significant and occur at wide intervals. So typically, there might be an annual investment plan, or a two- to four-year investment plan, for the systems of record. By contrast, the systems of differentiation need to be capable of much more dynamic allocation of investment, since this is where line of business managers have short-term targets for business change. And then in the systems of innovation there needs to be a much more localized lightweight investment management process that can support rapid evaluation, piloting, prototyping and proof of concept in the innovation layer.

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Applications 2020

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Applications 2020

Applications are still seen through the lens of its functional capabilities What has been abundantly clear is thatApplications are still seen through the lens of its functional capabilities. What has been abundantly clear is that application architects and developers have tended to believe that the more features an application has, the more powerful it is.

Furthermore, there is a perceived direct correlation between the number of things an application can do and the potential number of people to which an application appeals. When an application is believed to be relevant to a large audience of diverse requirements, it is seen as being an efficient use of development resources and as personally satisfying This is not simply an issue of application architects and developers arriving at thepersonally satisfying. This is not simply an issue of application architects and developers arriving at the conclusions themselves. Most sourcing activities today put a disproportionately high value on an application's feature set, although clear evidence points to the fact that only a factor of most applications' capabilities are actually utilized.

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Applications 2020

The reality however is different What is clear is that at the outset of an application development processThe reality, however, is different. What is clear is that at the outset of an application development process —one in which there will be ongoing development deployed through new versions — compromises need to be made on which features will be built into the product. This act of compromise means that some users won't be completely satisfied with the product, and that others would use the product once the additional features are included. As we iterate through the new version, the increased satisfaction of existing users and eventual inclusion of new users has led us to believe that the correlation between the number of features and the number of happy users is directly related. But over-engineering is a reality in the world of software applications. This means that there is a point at which additional features no longer make existing users more satisfied or add new users. There is a point at which additional functionality adds only complexity. The problem in the IT industry is that we are very poor at identifying the point where this starts to occur. That is why over-engineering is such a pervasive part of the application landscape. The perspective that should guide application development is not what the system is capable of doing, but what the person is capable of achieving with the system.

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Applications 2020

Even the most cursory examination of a tablet — particularly the iPad (along with its iOS cousins the iPhone and the iPod touch) and thoseEven the most cursory examination of a tablet particularly the iPad (along with its iOS cousins the iPhone and the iPod touch) and those duplicating its user interface (UI) model like Android OS and Chrome OS from Google — would highlight a significant divergence in the traditional way applications have been presented to users in a corporate environment. Highly engaging, graphically intensive and gesture-driven, these devices often evoke a view from hardened IT professionals that their toylike UI is best left to the realm of consumer products. This was the same point of view held by IT professionals two decades ago before the mainstream adoption of graphical UIs. But if these same people looked hard enough, they'll find significant parallels with a broadly accepted, and deployed, enterprise solution. The portal. Tablet devices and portals both manage application subcomponents. In the case of the tablet, it's a mobile application. For portals, these subcomponents are often referred to as portlets (or Web parts or other proprietary terms). But mobile applications and portlets have some similar design objectives:• Both are single-purpose. They do one thing well. It assumes that other mobile applications or portlets are available to do other things well.•Both are limited in functionality as a result of the limited design scope of the application/portlet•Both are limited in functionality as a result of the limited design scope of the application/portlet.• Both provide for user self-selection from a curated collection of application/portlet options.Tablet OSs and portals, therefore, both function as aggregation systems. Their primary objective is to create a unified whole from these disparate collections of subcomponents. But the difference between a tablet OS and a portal comes down to the way that the subcomponents are presented to a user. Portals are essentially a collection of windows. Each portlet is an active region in the portal with its capabilities directly exposed to the user. This approach to aggregation puts the user in largely a passive role — beyond the selection and placement of the portlets, the combined features and delivered content (i.e., news feeds, sales reports) are pushed out to the user all at once.Tablets, on the other hand, are a collection of doors. Each application is presented as an icon. The user must actively choose to engage with the

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application for the capabilities and/or content to become available. Once the user enters through one of these doors, he is immersed in the single-purpose design of the application. The only way to use another application is to return to the point of aggregation, locate the new door and then make the explicit decision to enter it.

Applications 2020

Gamification is being applied to solve a wide array of business problems In almost all cases gamificationGamification is being applied to solve a wide array of business problems. In almost all cases, gamification initiatives require IT engagement to provide solutions. CIOs, IT planners and enterprise architects must be aware of the trend of gamification, and they must educate their business counterparts and collaborate in the evaluation of opportunities within the organization. CIOs and IT leaders must also recognize that gamification is primarily a business trend that is supported by IT, so gamification initiatives must be led by business managers. It is also important to note that IT is part of the business, so gamification can be applied to internal IT processes in the same way that it can be applied within other business units. For example, Michelin used Second Life to create a training environment for enterprise architects (see "Case Study: Michelin Uses Virtual Environment to Teach Complex Material").

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Applications 2020

Application design and development will need to evolve around people centered design which is theApplication design and development will need to evolve around people-centered design, which is the integration of:

• Conceptual Design — Why are we building this software, what problem does it solve, and what capabilities are necessary to achieve that outcome and who specifically is it meant for?

• User-Centered Design — Once we know the intent/purpose of the solution, and we've begun to build it out, how do we make sure the intended audience can interact effectively with it (i.e., — user interface)?

• User Experience Technologies — What the tools and techniques are needed to assure the conceptual and physical design is represented across the range of different devices the intended audience will bring to bear?

• Experience Metaphor — What current and emerging UI metaphors shape the way a user experiences a software solution? This includes such things as Gamification, mobile app design, gesture styles for haptic interfaces, and so forth.

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Applications 2020

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Applications 2020

Data is of course an key component of an application The management of data is a complex and weightyData is, of course, an key component of an application. The management of data is a complex and weighty topic in its own right. But to simplify for the purpose of illustration, data is an essentially seen as an artifact of the code that defines an application. As an artifact it has value. Business intelligence (BI) helps us extract insight from it. We can also apply disciplines like master data management to support reuse and enable such things as SOA initiatives. But from an application perspective, data, at best has an equal relationship to the application code base — more commonly it has a secondary status.

Although a detailed history of BI and MDM is beyond the scope of this presentation, BI first pursued an approach in which all data was simply made available. Then it was optimized along the lines of "what is an asset" and "transactions execute against those assets" The asset question began to create the concept of dimensions which made "rote" analysis easier — dimensions were assets used, categorizing them, and so forth. Of particular interest were the time dimension and location dimension. Time used artifacts from systems, but were applied to assets in use to show motion or activity. This raised the question of how accurate those

tif t i t lit E t ll th t f di i hi hli ht d th d t l i

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artifacts were in actuality. Eventually, the concept of dimensions highlighted the governance and control issues around the dimensions that were asset-driven, and one way to assure the quality of those dimensions was MDM.

Applications 2020

But a perfect storm is brewing that will shift that relationship This includes:But a perfect storm is brewing that will shift that relationship. This includes:• Technology — Frameworks, such as MapReduce (and its open-source derivation Hadoop) have been evolving that process using huge datasets from distributed system. In-memory databases can reduce the I/O reading activity when querying data that provides faster and more predictable performance than disk.• Business needs — Business leaders are increasing using predictive analysis of data to sense and respond to emerging market patterns.• Cloud computing is enabling socially mediated dataset comprising an aggregation of internal and external data.This is happening against a backdrop of a rapid growth in volume, velocity, variety of information and a demand for real-time access. Data/information was always intended to describe something that already exists — not just for the benefit of application flows. The same is true for the data explosion we are seeing now. In the past, applications could only track "so much" because technology limits (column and record length for example) prevent tracking "everything." Then as analytics matured, analysts began asking "and what happened in between." So more data points were needed. This is the crux of "the application developers' data dilemma" — established controls on data do not evolve at the same tempo as the ability to define new data points. So the app developer must decide if he will follow formalized data definition process or if he will adopt a localized process to their own application. But the primacy comes about because the data is always intended to represent pre-existing realities or logical arguments. Thus, the tangible asset already has data as does the logical argument (think bank account, money, and so forth), it is just undocumented in the system. Because applications like to add immediate context, and that warps the representation — we have the true dilemma. The pace for new documentation of real things abstracted for all context exceeds the model for formalizing the definition.

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Applications 2020

These forces are coming together in three different ways First there is a blurring between what has traditionally beenThese forces are coming together in three different ways. First, there is a blurring between what has traditionally been seen as "application services" versus "data services." The former is mostly dealing with business logic and process, while the latter is more focused on data update and management. But, what we are beginning to see is a hybrid concept of "data in context"… the movement of logic from stored procedures and data services into application services that have a lot of data logic in them (i.e., to be able to move the data logic from cohabitation with the database using PL/SQL to Java or .NET code to make it more portable across platform "application services" versus "data services." So we're starting to see the emergence of "software services" with a range of percentages of application versus data logic/capabilities. Second, there is increasingly diminishing returns in creating apps that differentiate the business from competitors based onthere is increasingly diminishing returns in creating apps that differentiate the business from competitors based on application logic, as opposed to leveraging data. This is highlighted when we look at emerging business models being built around the acquisition and exploitation of data. For example, Mint.com is a personal finance website. It has robust functionality, solid security and integrates with a broad range of banks for account reconciliation and payments. The cost to the user is $0. That means that all the code to deliver the functionality, the security and the integration is of no real value as an asset to the organization. However, Mint.com's strategy was to use the code base to collect the data. Although Mint.com privacy policy strictly prohibits the use of any personal data, it is allowed to use an aggregation of all the users' data. As a result, it has a treasure trove of information on average bank balances, categories of expenditure, which credit

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, g , g p ,cards they use for what types of purchases, and so forth. The data is the asset. The code is just a collection mechanism.

Applications 2020

Pattern-Based Strategy is a set of disciplines supported by technology that enables organizations to proactively seek model and adapt to patterns ofPattern Based Strategy is a set of disciplines supported by technology that enables organizations to proactively seek, model and adapt to patterns of change. We expect organizations to increasingly focus on detecting leading indicators of change to take advantage of an innovation, avoid a disruption or quantify risk. Organizations must learn how to "listen" carefully to identify the signals relevant to them, and understand when the signals are patterns that require adaptation. Listening will require organizations to combine traditional information sources with new sources of information (social media, individuals, text, speech, etc.). Pattern-Based Strategy will also require cultural changes, such as proactively seeking patterns, as opposed to reactively sensing trends, adopting a performance-driven culture to follow leading indicators and proactively change organizational behavior based on the requirements of the pattern, enabling operational tempo to speed up or slow down operations, and ensuring transparency in information and performance.

For many organizations, executing a Pattern-Based Strategy will begin with proactively seeking new patterns — looking for leading indicators and weak signals in information beyond the four walls of the enterprise, such as those in the collective (social media, blogs, individuals). As technologies are adopted to assist in seeking patterns, Pattern-Based Strategy cultural change will spread beyond individual silos. As organizations find new patterns, they will quickly realize that understanding the impacts will require simulation and modeling. Once a decision is made to adopt a pattern, the organization must adapt. Pattern-seeking will happen in the shorter term, while modeling and adapting will follow in longer-term actions. We are in the early days of technologies and services that support pattern seeking.

Technology enables cultural change: Skill in finding new/novel patterns will be supported by emerging technologies like social analytics, text and

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speech analytics, collaborative decision making, in-memory database management systems (DBMSs), modeling and simulation tools, performance management, and complex-event processing. These technologies will assist organizations in finding patterns by combing traditional and new sources of information, modeling the impact of patterns and adapting to the changes required by the new pattern.

Applications 2020

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Applications 2020

The prevailing view of social software is that they are a new and discrete class of applications This is entirely expectedThe prevailing view of social software is that they are a new, and discrete class of applications. This is entirely expected.Usually, the exploration of new software capabilities usually finds its way into the market through dedicated providers that are singularly focused on specific product or offering that showcases those ideas. This is certainly the case with social software, as the market has been defined by the likes of Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter. Because of this, many organizations still find themselves considering the role of social software in the context of these providers. So, for example, is it appropriate to allow staff access to Facebook? What are the ramifications of LinkedIn around corporate control of key client contacts?

B d h i di id l li i l i l id ' ifi i i f l f i lBeyond these individual applications ultimately represent a provider's specific interpretation of a role a set of social capabilities plays in someone's personal or professional life. Facebook, for example, has established its position by focusing on linking people through profiles. Twitter and Yammer has focused on micro-blogging. The point is that beyond the specific application, an enterprise IT organization needs to start seeing social software in context of social andinteraction patterns. The long-term future of social software in enterprise will not be defined by new class of social software application being integrated with existing class of nonsocial applications.

Social capabilities won't be integrated with existing solutions as much as they'll be interwoven into them.

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Applications 2020

The emerging reality of social software today is that it's being less and less defined by specific applications andThe emerging reality of social software today is that it s being less and less defined by specific applications and more and more defined by a set of social services. Again, let's consider Facebook. One of the primary factors that led to Facebook's success was the fact that it was faster to open up its platform through accessible APIs then its competition. What other developers could do in conjunction with Facebook helped drive Facebook's success. That message has been clearly absorbed by the community of social software providers. The result not is a mass of different social services available to developers in the enterprise IT environment. But it's not just the new Web-based providers delivering social services. Most of the major enterprise players are at different stages of developing solutions that enable social capabilities to be created anew or added to existing solutions.

At the center of all this commotion sits the enterprise IT application teams that are facing growing demands to take advantage of these new services. Ultimately, they must understand a broader scope of contextual requirements and how they extend what they currently delivering in a way that adds additional value.

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Applications 2020

The first step most enterprise IT organization take is to look for the vendor community for signals BusinessThe first step most enterprise IT organization take is to look for the vendor community for signals. Business applications user interfaces are beginning to change from a process-centric perspective to a person and community perspective. What we're seeing is a co-opting of social software metaphors established by Facebook. Although this may lack a certain element of originality there's clearly value in realigning the way people interact with business applications away from process steps, assigned tasks and charts which diagram things like process completion toward a broader community support for shared objectives.

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Applications 2020

But adopting Facebook like interfaces is only a first step While it's important to establish UI models that canBut adopting Facebook-like interfaces is only a first step. While it s important to establish UI models that can accommodate social capabilities, what's important is to recognize where social services can be applied to the existing processes in the organization. This will require us to re-examine every step in the process we've been automating to see where social services can be interjected. Those organizations that are able to do this will see an entirely new level of process efficiency gains on the same order that IT-based automation has been delivering for the past 20 years or more.

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Applications 2020

Gartner has two important areas of research that can help you operate in a world where social and contextGartner has two important areas of research that can help you operate in a world where social and context-aware application services become interwoven into everyday business applications. We are pursuing research in both the areas of social software and context-aware computing.

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Documents

Applications 2020 - gartnerinfo.com mex38l_k2.pdf · Such approvals must be requested via email: ... Aadhaar is India's ambitious project to provide a unique identificati on number