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Applications, effects, and architecturesDavid Kitzinger – Principal Advisory Services, LLC Allied Telesis - Technology & Consulting Director
THE HIGH SPEED INTERNET
ULTRA
» What is Ultra High Speed Interent (UHSI)?» Potential Applications over UHSI» Can you monetize the applications? » How does UHSI affect today’s Service
Providers? » What architecture do you need to support
UHSI?» Summary?
Agenda:
» A SERVICE that requires a “Direct” fiber connection – Copper, WiMAX and 4G LTE can’t support this
» A PLATFORM for new residential and business apps– Running on the same network– Requiring QoS capability and SLA
» A VERSION of the Internet measured in Gb/s– Dependent more on speed than bandwidth– More than100 times faster than today’s average
speeds
What is Ultra High Speed Internet (UHSI)?
» When the Internet was 56 Kb/s, these applications did not exist:
» If 56 Kb/s was still the best Internet speed today, these companies would not exist as you know them:
» DSL and Cable changed all of that — because of SPEED.
– IPTV– VoIP
How does speed affect our lives?
– Movie downloads
– E-commerce
– Social Networking
– Cloud Computing
The big picture?
New USA Technologies will likely be an “Enabler” to UHSI
» Enable lower cost manufacturing– 3D Printers– 3D Scanners– The promise of putting USA manufacturing on par with
China’s costs– Bandwidth and optical transport should become more
cost efficient
» Graphene – Strongest building material known to man– Has the potential to be the next generation of video
screens and next generation of HDTVs– -Solar Panels
» True IPTV• Today’s telcos are really running a broadcast, cable TV
business• Tomorrow’s telcos will be running True IPTV
» HDTV, 4K, 8K Ultra HDTV, 3D, and other high-bandwidth formats become the norm (OTT) Video
• No such thing as a “static” channel line-up• Channel selections made by Personal Intelligent Channel
Search Engine or “PICSE”• Next applications… gaming, home business/office,
education, etc.
» Most content will come from servers• Reduced dependence on Satellite-based systems and
encoders will no longer be necessary• Advertising shifts from broadcast TV model to Internet
Search model
What new applications will run on the UHSI?
More applications …
» True Home Office– Video conference calls using V2oIP – Instant uploads and downloads of data– Data servers can be located at residences– “Managed Home” network services is born
» Universal Data Cloud-Based Services– Individuals storing software, music/video content,
etc.– Small businesses storing software and sensitive
retail data, etc.– Large businesses can enjoy multiple Gb/s
speeds to move data off premise– Cost effective for Business –
reduced software fees and hardware expenses
More applications …
» Software Defined Networks (SDN)
» The farm industry is moving toward “Precision Agriculture: farming based on (2) acre grids with data bases of soil type/moisture/humous - controlling on-the-go seed variety, fertilizer applications, and pesticide/rootworm concentrations
» Baby diaper monitoring sensor: » Tweets parent when diaper is wet» Detection of Urine factors/acidity level – tweet parents
that the baby may be coming down with a virus or illness
» Wearable Personal Medical Monitoring Systems» Automatically sends data to Cloud for medical records
VERY NEGATIVE » Unlikely to abandon
Hybrid Fiber Coax (HFC) architecture
» Xfinity and other Internet offerings will be no match for UHSI
» Video on Demand (VoD) business is gone
» VoIP will be replaced with V2oIP
» UHSI-based IPTV application will slowly displace standard broadcast TV
NEGATIVE to NEUTRAL
» UHSI will negate impact of their new Mb/s Internet offering
» Continue to be strong for broadcast content (ex. Sports)
How does the UHSI affect today’s Servioce Providers?
VERY POSITIVE» Likely to expand
fiber architectures» UHSI will dominate
Internet, Gaming, TV and Movies
» Complexity of home network will give rise to “Managed Home” service
Cable Satellite Telecom
Affect on market share over the next 25 years
Services: Cable Satellite Telecom
Internet
Phone
Broadcast TV
Unicast TV
VoD
Managed Home
Significant Decrease Significant IncreaseNo Significant Change
What architecture do you need to support UHSI? Continued
Multi-Dwelling
• Most new Fiber Plant designs are based on all Home-Run-Fibers
• Typically, on a new FTTH deployment the Fiber Installation cost is the majority of the money. The FTTH equipment is typically amounts to 5% to 8% of the cost.
• Today’s Actvie Architecture offers on average 18 times more bandwidth than
GPON Passive: • Do the math GPON offers 76 Mbps downstream &
38 Mbps upsgtream;averaging 57 Mbps. 1 Gb divided by 56 Mbps = 18 times
• 10 Gb GPON compared to 1 Gb Ethernet Active is not a like comparison: • 10 Gb GPON should be compared to 10 Gb Active which
still offers more bandwidth• A good cost evaluation may be best based upon cost per Mb
What architecture do you need to support UHSI?» The Smart Connected Home
– Layer 3+ indoor wireless ONT with indoor wireless hubs• Layer 3+ ONT the network “router” for the home; connections for
Video & Internet MAC’s become automatic and do not require separate VLANs for Video and Internet; thus, saving operational expense and simplifies the Connected Home– 1 MAC/IP supporting a growing number of wireless devices
(iPhone, iPad, laptop, etc.)• Trend is toward the Indoor wireless ONT to avoid wiring issues• Wireless hubs for ubiquitous coverage throughout the home
BroadbandVideoPOTS
ONT
One Networ
kNEW WAY
OLD WAY
ONT
HubHub
What architecture do you need to support UHSI?
» The Office and Feeder…– WDM-based
• Minimize fibers and impact of fiber cuts and repairs in the feeder
• Maximize bandwidth to each RT
– 100G capable to average RT• Plan for NO concentration for a Gigabit per
premise
– Needs to be symmetrical all the way to the premise• UHSI will require large “upstream” capability to
support new applications
– Needs to support both residential and business traffic• DON’T build two networks Multi-Dwelling
Business
House
Apartment
fiber
fiber
fiber
fiber
Cell Site
Central Office
Summary:
Multi-Dwelling
The Tier 3 Telcos attitudes and offerings were likely influenced by the FCC USF tax which has provided NECA subsidies to your company over many years. However, the USF NECA subsidies as we know them will finish in 2018.
FCC has released statements and intentions of Connect America Funds: CAF (1) was based on USF taxes still collected on Wireline and wireless voice circuits; contained limits on Administration/Overhead and maxed out at $775.00 per access line. CAF (2) was announced and FCC stated their biggest concern was over the Tier 1 & Tier 2 rural exchanges that had no internet offering or could not meet the 4x1 guidelines. FCC stated that their rural exchanges should be treated as greenfield with plans to convert them to FTTH. CAF (2) was to be based on Broadband taxes.
Due to Telco Associations filing concerns with FCC as to their breach of (7) year funding and future funding promises for which Telcos based their loans for FTTH; FCC agreed to keep funding for (5) years at the level the telco received in 2011. Note: It was agreed upon years ago not to tax the internet. Many States have asked the internet to provide the Sales Tax due to each state but have failed. Congress does not seem to have the fortitude to tax the internet. Thus, does FCC really have a plan?
Summary:
Multi-Dwelling
FCC suggested Gb Communities for each State in 2013Today 80% + of the internet traffic is Video: Streaming OTT Video /HDTV will migrate to higher bandwidth, the baby boomers may keep CATV alive but as their generation declines – Streaming Video is in. Internet ready TVs with PISCE may bring the baby boomers into the modern times.
Data Bandwidth will grow as Business & Residential consumers migrate to Cloud computing. Does your company have a Cloud Computing Partner to recommend to your Access customers and can you monetize the application?
Considering Precision Farming, does your company view farmers as business accounts and will you offer brackets of service levels or charge by Gb of usage?
Do you offer a Home Security System directly or through a partner?
Many new UHSI Applications will be created once the bandwidth is available!
In light of todays economy and FCC policies; has your Telephone Company really considered the value of the services they offer?
It is time for the Communication Industry to Retool with FTTH?
Any Questions
Thank You
David Kitzinger
Technology & Consulting Director
712-541-8341 Cell
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