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April 24, 2020

April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

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Page 1: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

April 24, 2020

Page 2: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA
Page 3: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

Coronavirus pandemic

• Health and safety highest priority

• Limited effect in Q1, significant uncertainty going forward

• Higher demand for pulp to tissue and hygiene products, and for

packaging paper to e-commerce and essential products

• Lower demand for solid wood products and publication paper

Sales declined 6% vs Q1 2019

• Price/mix -16%, volume 11%, currency 2%, acq/div -3%

EBITDA down 34% vs Q1 2019

- Lower selling prices

+ Higher pulp and kraftliner volumes

+ Lower raw material costs

Higher forest growth enables increased annual harvesting

• Gradual increase from 4.3m m3sub / year 2020 to 5.4m m3sub /year 2025

3

Page 4: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

1,175

1,034

1,5491,494

1,560

1,340 1,364

1,055 1,030

27%

22%

33%30% 31%

26%27%

24%

21%

Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20

EBITDA development (SEKm)

Note: 1) ROCE for the industrial segments; Wood, Pulp and Paper. ROCE calculated as LTM.

EBITDA margin

21%

Industrial ROCE 1)

9%

Net debt/EBITDA

1.9x

EBITDA (SEKm)

1,030 -34%

4

Page 5: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

5

1,6511,833

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

331

452

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

20.0%

24.6%

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

11% 37%

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

Declining prices

Stable wood supply to industries

Sales up 11%

+ Increased pulp and kraftliner volumes

- Lower prices

EBITDA up 37%

+ Higher forest growth increasing earnings from revaluation

of biological assets

- Lower prices

90

100

110

120

130

140

Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20

Pulpwood Sawlogs

Price development – Pulpwood and Sawlogs

Page 6: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

6

80

90

100

110

120

Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20

Price index SEK

1,678

1,436

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

297

95

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

17.7%

6.6%

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

Price development – Solid Wood Products

-14% Stable consumption, but low prices due to over

supply in continental Europe

Sales down 14%

- Lower prices

- Deconsolidation in Wood France following

merger with Groupe ISB

EBITDA down 68%

- Lower prices

- Restructuring SCA Wood France 0 (+90) SEKm

-68%

Page 7: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

21.8

22.2

22.6

23.0

23.4

23.8

24.2

24.6

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

NBSK PIX Price Europe (LHS)

Global Softwood Kraft deliveries (RHS)

20

25

30

35

40

45

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Higher pulp demand

• Increased global pulp deliveries

• Decreased softwood and hardwood inventories

• However, prices lagging behind

• European NBSK PIX price up from 820 to 840

USD/t in March

• Further price increase announced

7

Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply)

Softwood pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries (Mt) Increased

demandHardwood pulp inventories (days of supply)

Source: PIX, PPPC.

Normalized

inventories

Average

Normalized

inventories

Average

Page 8: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

8

1,134 1,188

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

351

186

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

31.0%

15.6%

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

Price development – NBSK Pulp

Sales up 5%+ Increased volumes to expanded pulp mill

- Lower prices

EBITDA down 47%- Lower prices

+ Increased volumes to expanded pulp mill

+ Positive currency effects

80

90

100

110

120

130

Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20

Price index SEK

5% -47%

Page 9: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

20

25

30

35

40

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

Unbleached kraftliner price Euwid (LHS)

Kraftliner deliveries Europe (RHS)

9

Kraftliner inventories (days of supply)

Price (EUR/t) vs Kraftliner deliveries (Mt)Strong annual

run rate

Improved demand

and lower production

Stable increase in

end demand

European box demand (index)

Source: Euwid, Numera.

Average

Higher kraftliner demand

• European deliveries continued to be strong

• Inventories continued to decrease

• Good order in-flow

• Stable box demand

• Price increase announced

98

100

102

104

106

108

Page 10: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

10

80

100

120

140

Q1'18

Q1'19

Q1'20

Price index SEK

2,3662,242

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

616

379

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

26.0%

16.9%

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

80

100

120

140

Q1'18

Q1'19

Q1'20

Price development –

Kraftliner

Price development –

Publication paper (LWC)

-5% -38%

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

Sales down 5%

- Lower kraftliner and publication paper prices

+ Higher kraftliner volumes

EBITDA down 38%

- Lower kraftliner and publication paper prices

+ Higher kraftliner volumes

+ Lower raw material costs and positive currency effects

Page 11: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

11

New forest survey conducted in 2019

Annual growth 1m m3fo higher than expected

• Gross growth of 10.5 (9.5) m m3fo per year

• Net growth of 4.0 (3.0) m m3fo per year

New harvesting plan calculated based on the new survey

• Gradual increase from 4.3m m3sub / year 2020 to 5.4m m3sub / year 2025

• Ramp-up expected to be linear over 5 years

Gross forest growth Sweden

(m m3fo / year)

+1

Harvesting plan

(m m3sub / year)

9.5

10.5

Forest survey2012-2013

Forest survey2019

4.3

5.4

Harvestingplan 2020

Harvestingplan 2025

+1.1

Page 12: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

No disruptions in production or distribution in Q1

• Forest – no effect in Q1

• Wood – limited effect in Q1, significant uncertainty going forward

• Pulp – increased demand in Q1

• Paper – higher demand for kraftliner, significantly lower for publication paper

Actions to mitigate impact

• Protect risk groups and reduce the spread of the virus

• Strict procedures in place to minimize impact on production

• Secure supply chain and key raw materials

• SCA Logistics with own ships and controlled harbors

• Cost control, inventory levels and capex

• High liquidity reserve and forest asset backing

SCA supplies raw

material to tissue and

hygiene products

12

Page 13: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA
Page 14: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

14

Quarter

SEKm Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Change

Net sales 4,793 5,076 -6%

EBITDA 1,030 1,560 -34%

EBITDA margin 21.5% 30.7% -9.2 p.p.

EBIT 628 1,168 -46%

EBIT margin 13.1% 23.0% -9.9 p.p.

Financial items -24 -30

Profit before tax 604 1,138 -47%

Tax -121 -230

Profit for the period 483 908 -47%

Earnings per share, SEK 0.69 1.29

Page 15: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

15

Paper

Net sales (SEKm)

PulpForest Wood

371

292

427

331

414 388

607

452

32%

20%

28%

20%24%

21%

36%

25%

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

1,1

62

1,4

55

1,5

40

1,6

51

1,7

46

1,8

65

1,6

94

1,8

33

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

2,4

26

2,4

13

2,4

21

2,3

66

2,3

75

2,3

80

2,1

08

2,2

42

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

1,8

46

1,7

12

1,5

58

1,6

78

1,7

27

1,5

45

1,3

76

1,4

36

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

48

5 74

3 1,0

49

1,1

34

1,2

14

1,1

29

90

0 1,1

88

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

230276

226297

188 180125 95

13%16% 15%

18%

11% 12%9% 7%

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

-112

273

370 351 344268

20

18637%

35% 31%28%

24%2%

16%

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

618

728

536

616

489

577

382 379

26%30%

22%26%

21%24%

18% 17%

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

Q2'19

Q3'19

Q4'19

Q1'20

EBITDA (SEKm) and EBITDA margin

Page 16: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

16

SEK 5,076m -16%

11% 2% -3%SEK

4,793m

Net salesQ1 2019

Price/Mix Volume Currency Acquisitions/divestments

Net salesQ1 2020

- 6%

Negative for all segments

Expanded pulp mill and higher Kraftliner volumes

Deconsolidation in Wood France following merger

with Groupe ISB

Page 17: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

17

SEK 1,560m -912

+167

+174 -3

+140 -96 SEK 1,030m

EBITDAQ1 2019

Price/Mix Volume Raw material Energy Currency Other EBITDAQ1 2020

- 34%

Lower prices for all segments

EBITDA margin

30.7%EBITDA margin

21.5%

Lower costs for wood and other raw materials

EUR and USD positive

Expanded pulp mill and higher Kraftliner volumes

Restructuring SCA Wood France (positive one-off item

of SEK 90m in Q1 2019)

Page 18: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

18

Quarter

SEKm Q1 2020 Q1 2019

EBITDA 1,030 1,560

Revaluation of biological assets and other non cash flow items -340 -246

Operating cash surplus 690 1,314

Change in working capital -146 -353

Current capital expenditures -175 -168

Other operating cash flow -28 -167

Operating cash flow 341 626

Acquisitions 0 -158

Strategic capital expenditures -189 -143

Page 19: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

19

854

835

SEK 8,597m

SEK-341m

SEK+189m

SEK 0m

SEK+42m

SEK+600m

SEK 9,087m

Net debtQ4 2019

Operatingcash flow

Strategic capex Acquisitions Paid tax Other Net debtQ1 2020

Net debt / EBITDA

1.6xNet debt / EBITDA

1.9x

Lease

Lease

Kraftliner and pulp expansion

Revaluation of pension assets and Other

Page 20: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

20

Maturity, yearsTotal

utilizedDebt (SEKbn) Limit 0-1 1-2 2-

Syndicated credit facilities (RCF) 5.0 -

Bond loans within MTN program 8.0 1.0 1.1 2.1

Commercial paper (CP) 5.0 2.9 2.9

Other loans1 4.0 4.0

Total Group 3.9 1.1 4.0 9.0

1 SEK, EIB and NIB

• New loan from Swedish Export Credit Agency (SEK 1bn) used to repay CP in April

• New additional syndicated RCF (SEK 1.6bn)

• Total liquidity reserve of SEK ~7.5bn (5.0bn RCF + 1.6bn new RCF + Cash)

Actions and measures after end of period:

Debt overview (Mar 31, 2020) Financing overview (Mar 31,2020)

2.9

2.1

5.0 5.0

8.0

4.0

0.9

Syndicatedcredit facilities

Commercialpaper

Bond loanswithin MTN

program

Other loans Cash

Utilized Not utilized Not utilized, secured

Note: Leasing excluded.

Page 21: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

21

SEKm Mar 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019

Forest assets 70,097 69,682

Working capital 3,470 3,748

Working capital/Net sales 1) 20% 20%

Deferred tax relating to forest assets -14,107 -13,977

Other capital employed 17,878 17,654

Total capital employed 77,338 77,107

Net debt 9,087 8,597

Net debt/EBITDA 2) 1.9x 1.6x

Equity 68,251 68,510

Net debt/Equity 13% 13%

Note: 1) Average working capital for 13 months as a percentage of 12-month rolling net sales.

2) 12-months EBITDA, up to end of each period.

Page 22: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA
Page 23: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

Coronavirus pandemic

Sales declined 6% vs Q1 2019

EBITDA down 34% vs Q1 2019

Higher forest growth enables increased

annual harvesting

23

Page 24: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA
Page 25: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA
Page 26: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

26

Net sales (SEKm)

EBITDA (SEKm) and EBITDA margin 1)

603478 531

670904

789588

12%9% 10% 11%

14% 12%10%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

1,232 1,213 1,2381,363 1,394

1,7401,861

24% 24% 25%27% 26% 25% 26%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

768970

530 482709

983 818

31%35%

21%19%

25%23%

18%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

5,187 5,108 4,978 5,070 5,455

6,956 7,138

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

5,114 5,315 5,4415,994

6,618 6,325 6,084

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

2,518 2,760 2,492 2,542 2,866

4,377 4,431

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

8,226 8,5487,744

8,434

9,643 9,229 9,105

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

PaperPulpForest Wood

1,243 1,295 1,2451,479

2,468

2,0641,827

15% 15% 16% 18%

26%22%

20%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 LTM

Note: 2014 and 2015 EBITDA refer to adjusted figures. 2016 and forward refer to unadjusted

figures. For details please see the quarterly report.

Page 27: April 24, 2020 - publicationpapers.sca.com€¦ · Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19 Q2 '19 Q3 '19 Q4 '19 Q1 '20 Price index SEK 1,678 1,436 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current expectations and

are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could negatively affect our business. Please read SCA’s most recent

annual report for a better understanding of these risks and uncertainties.