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Arab Climate Resilience Initiative Climate Change Impacts in the Arab Region: Sea Level Rise, Coastal Erosion, and Human Development Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate change Mohammed Karrou, ICARDA Cairo, Arab republic of Egypt 20-21 September 2010

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Challenges in Arab region due to Climate change (Agriculture) Adaptation options (Inland): ICARDA experience Adaptation options (Coastal areas): Some suggestions Plan of the presentation

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Temperature rise globally in the range of 2 to 6 C by 2100 (IPCC); In dry areas, the absolute amount of rain is expected to decrease (20% in many countries of Arab countries); Extreme weather events will most likely amplify; Periods of drought will become longer and its severity will be higher Challenges

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2. Water resources River flows and groundwater recharge will be reduced Limited opportunities to expand irrigated areas A little new water is expected to be available; Increased water quality deterioration (salt intrusion due to high water pumping & sea level rise) Challenges

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Region Total land Million ha Arable land % Pop. 2004 Million Pop. 2030 Million Asia7701117572168 N. Africa6784155222 S & N America14757185237 CAC41987590 E. Africa4518107178 Total4315823302942 3. Population growth and arable land availability Challenges

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Inland Heat stress and reduction of the length of the growing period of crops; CC is likely to alter the abundance, intensity, frequency & types of many pests & increase pathogen growth rates; Drought (at critical stages) and rainfall variability (yield fluctuations); Irrigation water scarcity; Land and vegetation degradation (low fertility, less organic matter, carbon emission). How this Will Affect Agricultural Production ?

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Coastal areas Land degradation due to sea level rise (reduction of cropped area); Inundation of cropped areas (salinity, water logging) Salt intrusion due to sea level rise (salt stress, less available freshwater); Salt intrusion increase and water scarcity due to excessive ground water pumping (salt and water, drought stress) How this Will Affect Agricultural Production ?

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Advances in S & T; Strong TT systems; Enhancement of NARES human capacity; Enabling policy and political will; Integration of adaptation strategies into development plans and policies. What Can Be done to Adapt to Climate Change?

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Heat, drought and salt tolerant varieties or species and with high water productivity; Adapted and modern irrigation systems and techniques that increase water productivity; Early sowing; Conservation agriculture and water harvesting; Adapted farming systems and diversification; Appropriate policies and institutional set-ups. Adaptation Options (Inland)

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Developing Industrialized Cereals Countries Barley15531 Wheat30925 Legumes Chickpea8232 Faba Bean457 Lentil8118 Forages282 Peas9 Grand total: 709115 Crop Improvement: Varieties Released using ICARDA Germplasm Worldwide, 1977 to 2006

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Heat-tolerant Wheat in Sudan

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Selection of Drought Tolerant Varieties using more efficient methods X Identification of Drought candidate genes with Microarray (DNA-microarrays is a modern method that permits analysis of genes during different growth stages) ; Use of physiological and molecular markers in breeding for drought tolerance.

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Community and participatory Integration technologies/policy/institutions Complementarities: BM & Satellite sites Multidisciplinary, multi-institution teams S. economic analysis Benchmarking and out-scaling Community-Based Optimization of the Management of Scarce Water Resources in Agriculture in West Asia and North Africa Project Project research approach

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Drier environments with water harvesting Irrigated areas Increase water productivity RB BB IB Water and Land Management Rainfed systems with supplemental irrigation Max WP Max Yield

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Used around the world minimum soil disturbance (ZT) stubble retention many rotations (legumes, oilseeds) Benefits savings in time, fuel, machinery wear better soil structure soil-water dynamics (OM, porosity) Timely sowing, C sequestration higher yield potential less erosion Zero-Till (Direct Sowing) to Conserve Water and Sequester C in the Soil

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Diversification and Sustainable Intensification of Production Systems Promotion of improved technologies for producing value-added products, to achieve higher income for rural communities in the intensified/diversified integrated crop/rangeland/livestock production systems Methodologies that focus on farming communities with participatory and gender-sensitive approaches

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Integration of Crop, Rangeland & Livestock Production Systems Barley Production Cactus & Fodder Shrubs By-products Feed Blocks On-farm Feed Production Flock management and breeding Natural Pastures Enhancement & Rangeland Management Successful Technologies Successful Technologies

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Sea level rise is caused by ocean thermal expansion glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica and change in terrestrial storage. Low gradient coastal landforms most susceptible to inundation include deltas, estuaries, beaches and barrier islands and coral reefs. Scenarios of Sea Level Rise

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Sea level rise is a big risk in the Arab countries, since the regions economic activity, agriculture and population centers are in the coastal zone. Agriculture will be affected by inundation and increasing salinity of soil and available fresh water resources such as aquifers. High salt intrusion is also observed in certain coastal areas due excessive pumping to intensify crop production (horticultural crops). Simulation carried out by AFED revealed that a sea level rise of only 1 m would directly impact 41,500 km2 of the Arab coastal lands. The most serious impacts of sea level rise would be in Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and UAE. The effects on the regions agricultural sector would mostly be felt in Egypt where 1 m rise would put 12% of the countrys agricultural land at risk and affect directly 3.2% of the population of the Arab countries. Challenges due Sea Level Rise in Agriculture in the Arab Region

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Prevention Enhance population awareness and develop/implement policies that facilitate adequate protection and adaptation such as insurance; Protect farmers lands from flooding and salt water intrusion (breakwaters, ) Take legal actions to restrict or prohibit agriculture development in hazard -prone areas How to Cope with the Effects of Sea Level Rise in Agriculture?

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GIS and modeling to map the areas with high risk and evaluate possible impacts; Development of early warning system; Development and introduction of irrigation techniques that improve water productivity and hence reduce water pumping and intrusion of salt (apply water at the right time and amount, drip irrigation) Selection and introduction of crops/species that are tolerant to salinity and with high water productivity; Develop norms of fertilizers / amendment that can reduce salt concentration; Soilless / hydroponic cropping; Transfer of water (cost, politics) + mixing of water; Desalination (cost) Adaptation Strategies (Research is needed)

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Thank you