Arab Spring :Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’

or not?

B11504 Moeko Takizawa

Background

( Wikipedia 2012a)

OUTLINE

1. Defining Terms2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’4. Analysis5. Conclusion

1. Defining Terms

i. Arab Spring

• A series of movements for democratisation• In the Middle East and North Africa• From the beginning of 2011 (MOFA 2012a)

1. Defining Terms

ⅱ. End of History

“I argued that liberal democracy may constitute the ‘end point of mankind’s ideological evolution’ and the ‘final form of human government,’ and as such constituted the ‘end of history.’” (Fukuyama 1992: 1)

1. Defining Terms

ⅲ. Liberal democracy

• A form of representative democracy• Limiting elected representatives’ power • Protecting civil LIBERTIES such as freedom of

speech and assembly and freedom of religion, the right to private property, privacy and equality by constitutions (wiseGEEK 2012)

c.f. democracy

1. Defining Terms

Do movements for democratisation which started in 2011 in Arab world result in establishment of liberal democracy, which is the final and ideal form of human government?Or does it end in no liberal democracy?

OUTLINE

1. Defining Terms2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’4. Analysis5. Conclusion

2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’

2.1 Case of Egypt and Libya― Free Elections

2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’

2.1 Case of Egypt and Libya― Free Elections

2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’

2.1 Case of Egypt and 　 Libya― Free ElectionsEgypt

BEFORE

• Controlled presidential elections (under Mubarak’s power)

AFTER

• Free and fair elections (Mursi was elected.　

Jun 24, 2012)

Limiting “elected” representatives’ power

2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’

2.1 Case of Egypt and 　 Libya― Free ElectionsLibya

BEFORE

• Direct Democracy• Absence of Parliamentary

System• No Elections (For 60 years)

AFTER

• Shifting to Representative Democracy

• Shifting to Parliamentary System

• Free election (Jul 7,2012)

A form of representative democracy

2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’

2.2 Case of Morocco― Revision of the Constitution

BEFORE

In Morocco, custom of democracy was taking root little by little.(Jelloun 2011: 106)

AFTER

The Constitution changed• King’s power= limited The PM power= stronger• Strengthening human rights

Etc…(MOFA 2011)

Protecting freedom of speech and assembly and freedom of religion, the right to private property, privacy and equality by constitutions

OUTLINE

1. Defining Terms2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’4. Analysis5. Conclusion and Future Research

3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s‘End of History’

3.1 Case of Syria

3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s‘End of History’

3.1 Case of SyriaSyria is still under Al-Asad’s power.= Repression of political and human rights activism= Restrictions on freedom of expression= Torture= Bad treatment of the Kurds= Syria’s legacy of enforced disappearances

(Human Rights Watch: 2010)

• Limiting elected representatives’ power • Protecting freedom of speech and assembly

and freedom of religion, the right to private property, privacy and equality by constitutions

3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s‘End of History’

3.2 Islamic Party• Egypt’s new President• Mohammed Mursi• Muslim Brotherhood

3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s‘End of History’

3.2 Islamic Party

3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s‘End of History’

3.2 Islamic PartyIslamism + liberal democracy = IMPOSSIBLE??In Islamic world…• Allah has sovereignty. Citizens never have one.• Women’s LIBERTIES are restricted.　― Education, works, relations with men, …

Protecting civil LIBERTIES such as

freedom of speech and assembly and freedom of religion, the right to private property, privacy and equality by constitutions

OUTLINE

1. Defining Terms2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’4. Analysis5. Conclusion

⑥

4. Analysis

2.1 Case of Egypt and Libya― Free ElectionsGood Evidence!But…Libya has not completely switched to representative democracy and parliamentary system.

⑤

4. Analysis

2.2 Case of Morocco― Revision of the ConstitutionStatic Change!• Only the Constitution changed.• Human rights― improved??→ Human Rights Watch report

⑦

4. Analysis

3.1 Case of Syria O Absence of freedom of expression O Inhuman actions

X There are elections before the revolution.

⑤

4. Analysis

3.2 Islamic Party• Policy of Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt)– Democracy, Freedom of speech, press, assembly, etc.• Policy of Ennahdha– Improvement of women’s rightsIslamism is not too strict in policies of these parties!

OUTLINE

1. Defining Terms2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’4. Analysis5. Conclusion

5. Conclusion

Arab Spring is…

NOT evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’

VSIt’s too early to say that Arab revolution end in establishment of liberal democracy.

⑪ ⑫

OUTLINE

1. Defining Terms2. Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’3. Not Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’4. Analysis5. Conclusion

Arab Spring :Evidence for Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’

or not?

B11504 Moeko Takizawa