Arab SpringUnit 7: Middle East

Chapter 6http://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2011/mar/22/middle-east-protest-interactive-timeline

What’s the “Arab Spring?”• Since 2010• Rulers in North Africa and Middle East have been driven from

power (specifically Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya)• Initial optimism spread across region with predictions of

democracy • Arab people are no longer resigned to being governed

against their will• They want to have a voice in their political destiny – self

determination and sovereignty• Now giddy enthusiasm gone, and civil unrest has meant

ongoing turmoil, upheaval, and bloodshed for region

How did the Arab Spring Begin?• December 2010• Mohamed Bouazizi, a 26-year-old fruit vendor in small town

of Tunisia• He was fed up with abuse by local officials – police confiscated his produce

stand without a permit• He set himself on fire as protest, later died of injuries• His actions touched off demonstrations across

country, public outrage• Spread to other nations in North Africa and Middle

East• Many of these rallies were organized through social

media (facebook, twitter, etc)

Is the Arab Spring “good” or “bad?”•POSITIVES INCLUDE:•Some scholars believe this will eventually be a good thing •Average Arabs are demanding democracy and greater opportunity •Citizens are speaking out against rulers (which would have been unthinkable a few years ago)•People are forming new political parties

Is the Arab Spring “good” or “bad?” (con’t)• NEGATIVES INCLUDE:• Other Middle East analysts say Arab countries have suffered political and economic

stagnation for decades of autocratic rule are poorly equipped to build new democratic governments• Many Arab Spring movements have achieved immediate goal of removing dictators, but

wider aims of democracy, human rights, rule of law, and economic growth are a long ways off• Nobody has been prepared for the “next step” after removing leaders• Demands for change (jobs, food, health care, basic security to live in peace) have not be

addressed• Grievances have probably grown and thousands have been killed (esp. in Syria)• Arab Spring may have worsened deep societal splits • Secularists (those who want to keep religion and government separate) VS. Islamists

(want religion to guide political and social life)• Muslims VS. Christians (Egypt) and Sunnis VS. Shiites (Syria)

Questions raised about Arab Spring?•Who will ultimately hold power in the countries where dictators have been removed?•How long will it take before we can clearly see the economic, political, and demographic consequences of this movement?•Many historians say that major political shifts usually take decades or generations…

Does the Arab Spring = Democracy?•Democracy in the Arab world will probably NOT be a copy of democracy as the U.S. knows it•U.S. has separation of religion and politics•Middle East politics and religion are intertwined

U.S. Involvement in Arab Spring•U.S. has stayed on the sidelines militarily for the most

part•U.S. involved in Libya – backed rebel forces by taking part

in NATO airstrikes against Dictator Qaddafi•Providing military and economic aid ($1.5 billion) to Egypt•Provided diplomatic support for protests in several

countries•U.S. considering involvement in Syria

Arab Spring in North AfricaMorocco – King Mohammed

VI agreed to constitutional changes giving elected leaders more power

Tunisia – President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali ousted in Jan. ’11, elections in Oct. ’11, opposition leaders assassinated, sparked clashes between demonstrators & police in Feb. ‘13, turmoil threatens transition to democracy with moderate Islamist government

Libya – Feb. ‘11 protest armed uprising begins, rebels on verge of defeat then Western airstrikes against Qaddafi’s troops turn the tide of conflict, Dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi overthrown & killed in Oct. ‘11, country elected new government, U.S. ambassador killed in terrorist attack in Sept. ‘12, unstable, increasingly violent

Egypt – Protests in Jan. ’11, President Hosni Mubarak ousted in Feb. ‘11, elections in June ’12, new President Morsi marked by chaos & instability, President Morsi ousted by military in July ‘13, violent crackdown on protesters in Aug. ‘13, military promises to hold elections/step aside, but country is more divided than ever, tourism industry has collapsed and economy in crisis, out of control

Arab Spring in Middle EastSyria – Peaceful protests against

President al-Assad in Mar. ‘11, evolved into full-fledged Civil War – clashes between protesters & military – 100,000 killed, 2 million refugees, Assad regime suspected of launching massive chemical weapons attack against civilians in Aug. ‘13, U.S. President Obama asked Congress to authorize an air strike attack but vote postponed while we work with Russia to get Syria to give up chem weapons

Jordan – King Abdullah II faces growing unrest, sought to quiet protests by introducing a constitutional court and promising to give a new legislature more authority

Yemen – Protests in Feb. ’11, President Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down in Nov. ‘11, but collapsing economy, instability, lawlessness, separatist movement, powerful Al Qaeda group, major security concern for U.S. and target of drone strikes

Bahrain – Feb. ‘11 protests begin, King Khalifa violently cracks down on protesters and stayed in power

Saudi Arabia – King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al Saud using cash ($130 billion) to keep people happy by boosting salaries and subsidies to prevent protests, tightened media censorship of internet and print sources, considering “antiterrorism law” to arrest anyone for criticizing king or “harming reputation of the state”

Arab Spring in Middle East (continued)

Lebanon – concern that violence in Syria will destabilize this country which has a long history of sectarian violence

Iraq – Three years after U.S. troops left, sectarian violence is surging, more than 1,000 Iraqis were killed and 2,300 wounded in attacks in July ’13

Iran – has been defying international community with suspected nuclear weapons program, new President Rouhani has indicated willingness to negotiate with U.S.

Israel – with U.S. prodding, Israelis and Palestinians are talking in effort to resolve 60 year conflict, little optimism since long standing issues (guaranteeing Israel’s security and drawing borders for a Palestinian state) are so divisive