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Architecture & Technology
Implications for Future Computing
Dr Fayé A. Briggs, Intel Fellow
Summary
Agenda
Demands for Exascale Computing What is it and what problems does it solve?
Trends in Top 500
Programmability & Tools for IA Exascale Analytical intelligence framework
Six Pillars of Technology to Drive Scalable Computing Micro-architecture performance drivers
Technology Drivers
Applying Moore’s Law to Future Datacenters Inflection points and sustaining performance CAGR
Future Computing Enables Better Fidelity
Goal: 1-ExaFlops (1018) within 20-40 MW by End of Decade
Enabling solutions to yet impossible life changing problems
Makes PFlop HPC computing affordable and ubiquitous
10 PFlops
1 PFlops
100 TFlops
10 TFlops
1 TFlops
100 GFlops
10 GFlops
1 GFlops
100 MFlops
100 PFlops
10 EFlops
1 EFlops
100 EFlops
1993 2017 1999 2005 2011 2023
1 ZFlops
2029
Weather Prediction
Medical Imaging
Genomics Research
Forecast
1993 2017 1999 2005 2011
Trends to Exascale Performance
Roughly 10x performance every 4 years.
Predicts that we’ll hit Exascale performance in 2018-19
33.9PF Tianhe-2
Six Pillars of Maintaining Scalability of
Computing Needs A Multi-disciplinary Approach
Power Management
Microprocessor
Parallel Software Interconnect
Reliability and Resiliency
Memory
Micro-architecture Performance Parameters
• Core capability (IPC)
• Vector FLOP Density
• Core-count
• On-die Interconnect
• Frequency
• Cache Hierarchy(densities & latencies)
• Memory Latency, Bandwidth & Size
• Memory Technologies
• Considerations for efficient power/performance scalability
Many Knobs for Optimizing Performance within Power & Costs Constraints
Performance = Frequency * Instructions Per Cycle
(IPC)
Power α V * V * Frequency
Frequency α voltage,
so frequency reduction coupled with voltage
reduction results in cubic reduction in power.
Cores & Uncores: Performance Drivers
DRAM
QPI
Core
Uncore
C O R E
C O R E
C O R E
Memory Controller QPI Power &
Clock
…
QPI
…
…
Last Level Cache
Shown: Xeon 2600
Architecture
EP, WS 2S
QPI
QPI
SNB
Core
Xeon 2600
SNB
Core
Xeon 2600 DDR3
ESI
PCIe
PCIe
PCIe
PCIe
PCIe
x8
ESI
PCIe
PCIe
PCIe
PCIe
PCIe
DDR3
DDR3
DDR3
DDR3
DDR3
DDR3
DDR3
PCIe
Cumulative Performance Drivers
8
SPECint Rate TPC-C
Core-count drives the cumulative increase in perf more than any other factor.
MPKI in HPC Workloads
• Most HPC workloads benefit from caches
• Less than 20 MPKI for 1M-4M caches
MPKI MPKI
Caches save power
• Caches save power since memory communication avoided • Caches 8x-45x better at BW/Watt compared to memory
• Power break-even point around 11% hit rate (L2 cache)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Memory BW L2 Cache BW L1 Cache BW
Relative BW
Relative BW/Watt
Relative
BW/Watt
Memory Bandwidth Does Not Scale With Moore’s Law
• Significant increase in CPU computing power
• Memory BW not keeping up
• Gap must be closed to support scalability of future computing
Source: Exascale Computing Study: Technology Challenges in achieving Exascale Systems (2008)
Source: Intel Forecast
Traditional CPU
BW demand
HE-WS/HPC BW demand
BW Trend
DDR3
Assuming DDR4
BW Projections
0
50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GB
/S (
Pe
r S
kt)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
3502
00
6
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
Relative
Growth in
Mem BW
# of cores
Flops/cycle/
Socket
Expon.
(Required
Memory BW)
Technology Scaling Outlook
1
2
0
10
20
30
40R
ela
tiv
e
Transistor Density
1.75 – 2X
0
0.5
1
1.5
Re
lati
ve
Frequency
Almost flat
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Re
lati
ve
Supply Voltage
Almost flat
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
Re
lati
ve
Energy
Some scaling
Ideal
Energy per Compute Operation
1
3
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
45nm 32nm 22nm 14nm 10nm 7nm
En
erg
y (
pJ)
pJ/bit
Com
pJ/bit
DRAM
FP Op
DRAM
Communication
Operands
75 pJ/bit
25 pJ/bit
10 pJ/bit
100 pJ/bit
Source: Intel
Wide Dynamic Range
14
NTV
EN
ER
GY
E
FF
ICE
NC
Y
HIGH
LOW
VOLTAGE ZERO MAX
~5x
Demonstrated
Normal operating range Subthreshold
Ultra-low
Power
Energy
Efficient
High
Performance
280 mV 0.45 V 1.2 V
3 MHz 60 MHz 915 MHz
2 mW 10 mW 737 mW
1500
Mips/W
5830
Mips/W
1240 Mips/W
A Number of Challenges to Overcome
4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Tera Flops/Socket
Memory BW/Socket (GB/s)
DRAM data pins/memory (@ 10Gb/s)
Pin count low, but power high
Power low , but pin count high
~10pJ
per
Byte
Memory:
~150pJ per
Byte
Chip to
chip:
~100pJ per
Byte ’93 ‘95 ‘97 ‘99 ‘01 ‘03 ‘05 ‘07 ‘09
1E+02
1E+03
1E+04
1E+05
1E+06
1E+07
Top System Concurrency Trend
Peak Performance (TF)
Memory
(TB)
1 10 100 1000 10000
10000
1000
100
10
1
Peak Performance of some of the most recent Top 10 machines
Cost/Area Power Extreme Parallelism
Byte/Flop Ratio
Source: Exascale Computing Study: Technology Challenges in achieving Exascale Systems (2008),
Consider New Levels of Memory Hierarchy
On CPU SRAM DRAM Storage (HDD) NVM Storage
Latency 1x ~=20x ~=20,000x ~=10,000,000x
$$/bit 1x ~=0.05x ~=0.005x ~=0.0005x
Scaling Challenges with DRAM and NAND
Source: Memory Technology Trend and Future Challenges – Singjoo Hong; Hynix Semiconductor
Memory Power Challenges
• Need to balance bandwidth
with capacity and power
1 ExaFlop Machine
~200-300 PB/sec
~2-3 pJ/bit
• GDDR will be out of steam
• Periphery connected
solutions will run into pin
count issues
Memory bandwidth is critical to HPC performance
Existing technology trends leave 3-4x gap on pJ/bit
Package
3D-Integration of DRAM and Logic
Logic Buffer
Logic Buffer Chip
Technology optimized for:
High speed signaling
Energy efficient logic circuits
Implement intelligence
DRAM Stack
Technology optimized for:
Memory density
Lower cost
3D Integration provides best of both worlds
1Tb/s HMC DRAM Prototype
• 3D integration technology • 1Gb DRAM Array • 512 MB total DRAM/cube • 128GB/s Bandwidth • <10 pj/bit energy
Bandwidth Energy
Efficiency
DDR-3 (Today) 10.66
GB/Sec
50-75 pJ/bit
Hybrid Memory
Cube
128
GB/Sec
8 pJ/bit
10X higher bandwidth, 10X lower energy Source: Micron
Memory: Approach Forward
• Significant power consumed in Memory
– Need to drive 20 pj/bit to 2-3 pJ/bit
• Balancing BW, capacity and power is hard problem
• More hierarchical memories
• Progressively more integration
CPUDie
Direct Attach Usage
Logic Die
Multi-chip Package Usage
2A
CPUDie
Multi-package Usage
2A
CPU
Logic Die
package
Memory Memory Memory
Develop Innovative Packaging & IO Solutions
CPU with 100s
of cores
Heat Extraction
DRAM or
NVRAM die
Interconnect substrate
Through Silicon Via
CPU with
100s of cores
DRAM die
Through
Silicon Via
• Pins required + IO Power limits the use of traditional
packaging
• Tighter integration between memory and CPU
• High BW and low latency using memory locality
Source: Exascale Computing Study: Technology Challenges in achieving Exascale Systems (2008)
More cores per chip will slow some
programs [red] unless there’s a big
boost in memory bandwidth
[yellow].
“Multicore Is Bad News For Supercomputers”,
IEEE Spectrum Nov 2008
22
Reliability Challenges
From Peta to Exa Reliability Issues
1,000X
parallelism
More hardware for something to
go wrong
>1,000X intermittent faults due
to soft errors
Aggressive Vcc
scaling to reduce
power/energy
Gradual faults due to increased
variations
More susceptible to Vcc droops
(noise)
More susceptible to dynamic
temp variations
Exacerbates intermittent
faults—soft errors
Deeply scaled
technologies
Aging related faults
Lack of burn-in?
Variability increases
dramatically
Resiliency will be the corner-stone
Soft Errors and Reliability
23
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0.5 1 1.5 2
Voltage (V)
n-S
ER
/ce
ll (
se
a-l
ev
el)
65nm
90nm
130nm
180nm
250nm
Soft error/bit reduces each generation
Nominal impact of NTV on soft error rate
1
10
180 130 90 65 45 32
Technology (nm)
Rela
tive t
o 1
30n
m
Memory
Latch
Assuming 2X bit/latch
count increase per generation
Soft error at the system level will
continue to increase
Positive impact of NTV on reliability
Low V lower E fields, low power lower temperature
Device aging effects will be less of a concern
Lower electromigration related defects
N. Seifert et al, "Radiation-Induced Soft Error Rates of Advanced CMOS Bulk Devices", 44th Reliability Physics Symposium, 2006
Platform Reliability
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
1E+04
1E+05
1E+06
1E+07
1E+08
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2015
0
1
10
100
1000
Me
an
Tim
e t
o In
terr
up
t (h
ou
rs)
0..001
0..01
0..1
Failures per socket per year
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Ap
plic
ati
on
Uti
liza
tio
n (
%)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.1
0.01
0.001
Failures per socket per year
Source: Exascale Computing Study: Technology Challenges in achieving Exascale Systems (2008)
Today’s HW System Architecture
2
5
Socket
4GB DRAM
Socket
4GB DRAM
Socket
4GB DRAM
Socket
4GB DRAM
Coherent domain
1.5 TF Peak
660 pJ/F 660 MW/Exa
10 mB of DRAM/F
...
Non-coherent domain
Today’s programming model
comprehends this system architecture
Core X8 FP
Small RF
32K I$
32K D$
128K I$
128K D$
16 MB L3
Core X8 FP
Small RF
32K I$
32K D$
128K I$
128K D$
…X 16…
~ 3GHz
~100 W
384 GF/s Peak
260 pJ/F 260 MW/Exa
55 mB of local memory/F
Processor
Straw-man Exascale Processor
2
6
C C C C
C C C C
Logi
c
Shared Cache
First level of hierarchy Next level of hierarchy
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
Next level cache
Interconnect ……
…..
……
…..
600K Transistors
Simplest Core
*
RF
Logic
Technology 7nm, 2018
Die area 500 mm2
Cores 2048
Frequency 4.2 GHz
TFLOPs 17.2
Power 600 Watts
E Efficiency 34 pJ/Flop
Computations alone consume 34 MW for Exascale
Processor
Next level of hierarchyPE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
Next level cache
Interconnect………..
………..
Next level of hierarchyPE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
Next level cache
Interconnect………..
………..
Next level of hierarchyPE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
Next level cache
Interconnect………..
………..
Next level of hierarchyPE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
Next level cache
Interconnect………..
………..
………..
………..
Last level cache
……
…..
……
…..
Interconnect
Straw-man Architecture at NTV
2
7
Full Vdd 50% Vdd
Technology 7nm, 2018
Die area 500 mm2
Cores 2048
Frequency 4.2 GHz 600 MHz
TFLOPs 17.2 2.5
Power 600 Watts 37 Watts
E Efficiency 34 pJ/Flop 15 pJ/Flop
Compute energy efficiency close to Exascale goal
600K Transistors
Simplest Core
*
RF
Logic
C C C C
C C C C
Lo
gic
Shared Cache
First level of hierarchy Next level of hierarchyPE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
Next level cache
Interconnect………..
………..
Processor
Next level of hierarchyPE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
Next level cache
Interconnect………..
………..
Next level of hierarchyPE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
Next level cache
Interconnect………..
………..
Next level of hierarchyPE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
Next level cache
Interconnect………..
………..
Next level of hierarchyPE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
Next level cache
Interconnect………..
………..
………..
………..
Last level cache
………..
………..
Interconnect
Reduced frequency
and flops
Reduced power and
improved E-efficiency
Over-provisioning, Introspection, Self-awareness
28
F F
M F
S
S
F S S
Addressing variations
1. Provide more compute HW
2. Law of large numbers
3. Static profile
M
S
S
S M M F
1. Schedule threads based on objectives and resources
2. Dynamically control and manage resources
3. Identify sensors, functions in HW for implementation
System SW implements introspective execution model
F F
M F
S
S
F S S
M
S
S
S M M F
Dynamic reconfiguration:
1. Energy efficiency
2. Latency
3. Dynamic resource
management
Fine grain resource mgmt
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
8MB Shared LLC
Interconnect
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
8MB Shared LLC
Interconnect………..
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
8MB Shared LLC
Interconnect
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
PE PE PE PE
PE PE PE PESe
rvic
e C
ore
1MB L2
………..
8MB Shared LLC
Interconnect………..
64MB Shared LLC
………..
………..
Interconnect
Processor Chip (16 Clusters)
Sensors for introspection
1. Energy consumption
2. Instantaneous power
3. Computations
4. Data movement
Over-provisioned Introspectively Resource Managed System
29
Over-provisioned in design
Dynamically tuned for the given objective
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
45nm 32nm 22nm 14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm
MW
System Power Data MovementPower w/o DMSys Goal
20 MW
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
45nm 32nm 22nm 14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm
MW
Data Movement Power System
Cabinet
Boards
Die
Clusters
Islands
40 Gbps Photonic links @ 10 pJ/b
3.23 MW
1
2
3
Many challenges to continue to scale computing Exciting times Important that innovations have broader applicability
Computing efficiencies will continue to improve w/ IA cores Without changing programming model or ISA
Potential more integration over time Reduces power, increases reliability, increases scalability
Summary
Q&A
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Risk Factors
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The above statements and any others in this document that refer to plans and expectations for the first quarter, the year and the future are forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Words such as “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “may,” “will,” “should” and their variations identify forward-looking statements. Statements that refer to or are based on projections, uncertain events or assumptions also identify forward-looking statements. Many factors could affect Intel’s actual results, and variances from Intel’s current expectations regarding such factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. Intel presently considers the following to be the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the company’s expectations. Demand could be different from Intel's expectations due to factors including changes in business and economic conditions, including supply constraints and other disruptions affecting customers; customer acceptance of Intel’s and competitors’ products; changes in customer order patterns including order cancellations; and changes in the level of inventory at customers. Uncertainty in global economic and financial conditions poses a risk that consumers and businesses may defer purchases in response to negative financial events, which could negatively affect product demand and other related matters. Intel operates in intensely competitive industries that are characterized by a high percentage of costs that are fixed or difficult to reduce in the short term and product demand that is highly variable and difficult to forecast. Revenue and the gross margin percentage are affected by the timing of Intel product introductions and the demand for and market acceptance of Intel's products; actions taken by Intel's competitors, including product offerings and introductions, marketing programs and pricing pressures and Intel’s response to such actions; and Intel’s ability to respond quickly to technological developments and to incorporate new features into its products. Intel is in the process of transitioning to its next generation of products on 22nm process technology, and there could be execution and timing issues associated with these changes, including products defects and errata and lower than anticipated manufacturing yields. The gross margin percentage could vary significantly from expectations based on capacity utilization; variations in inventory valuation, including variations related to the timing of qualifying products for sale; changes in revenue levels; product mix and pricing; the timing and execution of the manufacturing ramp and associated costs; start-up costs; excess or obsolete inventory; changes in unit costs; defects or disruptions in the supply of materials or resources; product manufacturing quality/yields; and impairments of long-lived assets, including manufacturing, assembly/test and intangible assets. The majority of Intel’s non-marketable equity investment portfolio balance is concentrated in companies in the flash memory market segment, and declines in this market segment or changes in management’s plans with respect to Intel’s investments in this market segment could result in significant impairment charges, impacting restructuring charges as well as gains/losses on equity investments and interest and other. Intel's results could be affected by adverse economic, social, political and physical/infrastructure conditions in countries where Intel, its customers or its suppliers operate, including military conflict and other security risks, natural disasters, infrastructure disruptions, health concerns and fluctuations in currency exchange rates. Expenses, particularly certain marketing and compensation expenses, as well as restructuring and asset impairment charges, vary depending on the level of demand for Intel's products and the level of revenue and profits. Intel’s results could be affected by the timing of closing of acquisitions and divestitures. Intel's results could be affected by adverse effects associated with product defects and errata (deviations from published specifications), and by litigation or regulatory matters involving intellectual property, stockholder, consumer, antitrust and other issues, such as the litigation and regulatory matters described in Intel's SEC reports. An unfavorable ruling could include monetary damages or an injunction prohibiting us from manufacturing or selling one or more products, precluding particular business practices, impacting Intel’s ability to design its products, or requiring other remedies such as compulsory licensing of intellectual property. A detailed discussion of these and other factors that could affect Intel’s results is included in Intel’s SEC filings, including the report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Oct. 1, 2011.
Rev. 1/19/12
Back-Up Materials
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Architecture & Technology
Implications for Future Computing
Dr Fayé A. Briggs, Intel Fellow