Are Medium-Scale Farms Driving Agricultural …...Uganda, Kenya) 2. Rising vibrancy of land sales markets, based on willingness to pay criteria – usually with the support of national

Are Medium-Scale Farms Driving Agricultural Transformation in Africa?

T. S. Jayne, M. Muyanga, F.K. Yeboah, A. Aromolaran, A. Chapoto, T. Shonhe, F. Dzanku, N. Mdoe and A. Wineman

Work Stream 3 StudyAPRA Annual Research Review and Planning Workshop

University of Ghana, Legon, and theInstitute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER)

Ghana –4 December 2018

Funded by UK aid from the UK Government

www.future-agricultures.org/apra

Medium-scale farms accounting for rising share of cultivated land, Tanzania

2Source: Tanzania LSMS (National Panel Surveys), 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, National Bureau of Statistics

Changes in farm structure in ZimbabwePRE 2000 POST 2000

Category (ha)

No of farms

% Land owned (ha)

% No of farms

% Land owned (ha)

%

0-5 613 3.1 2,369 0.0 376 0.2 1,373.60 0.0

5--10 278 1.4 2,078 0.0 8321 5.0 174,862.77 1.6

10--20 591 2.9 8,605 0.1 80340 48.5 2,517,254.90 23.7

20--100 6019 30.0 406,020 2.8 61960 37.4 3,906,140.41 36.8

Over 100 12567 62.6 14,263,069 97.1 14636 8.8 4,020,228.55 37.9

Total 20068 100.0 14,682,142 100.0 165633 100.0 10,619,860.22 100.0

Changes in farm structure in Zimbabwe

Category (ha) GROWTH (farms) Growth (area)

0-5 -38.66 -42.02

5--10 2,893.17 8,313.87

10--20 13,493.91 29,151.93

20--100 929.41 862.06

Over 100 16.46 -71.81

Total 725.36 -27.67

Medium-scale farms accounting for rising share of agricultural production value, Tanzania

5Source: Tanzania LSMS (National Panel Surveys), 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, National Bureau of Statistics

Share (%) of total value of national marketed crop output:Ghana

6

Survey yearFarm size category

0-5 ha 5-10 ha 10-20 ha 20-100 ha > 100 ha All farms

1992 74.8 12.5 6.8 5.1 0.7 100

1998 65.4 16.9 9.5 8.1 0.1 100

2006 59.5 15.5 10.4 10.2 4.5 100

2013 56.6 22.9 13.1 7.0 0.4 100

Source: Ghana Living Standards Surveys

Share (%) of total value of national marketed crop output by medium-scale farms is growing: Ghana

7

Survey yearFarm size category

0-5 ha 5-10 ha 10-20 ha 20-100 ha > 100 ha All farms

1992 74.8 12.5 6.8 5.1 0.7 100

1998 65.4 16.9 9.5 8.1 0.1 100

2006 59.5 15.5 10.4 10.2 4.5 100

2013 56.6 22.9 13.1 7.0 0.4 100

Source: Ghana Living Standards Surveys

24%

43%

75%

57%

Medium-scale (5-100 ha) farms accounting for rising share of national value marketed crop output, Ghana

8Source: Ghana Living Standards Surveys

Chart1

grains/roots/tubersgrains/roots/tubers

industrial cash cropsindustrial cash crops

horticulturehorticulture

legumes/oilseedslegumes/oilseeds

1992

2013

% Share

20.1

39.1

37.6

43.8

21

50.1

27.9

53.3

Sheet1

19922013Column1

grains/roots/tubers20.139.1

industrial cash crops37.643.8

horticulture2150.1

legumes/oilseeds27.953.3

Medium-scale (5-100 ha) share of national value

marketed crop output, Tanzania

9Source: Tanzania NPS/LSMS Surveys

Chart1





2008

2014

% share

18.1

36.4

14.2

25.9

7.1

9.9

13.3

40.4

Sheet1

20082014Column1



horticulture7.19.9


10Source: Nigeria General Household Surveys

Medium-scale (5-100 ha) share of national value marketed

crop output, Nigeria

Chart1





2011

2016

% share

7.2

19.3

12.8

18.9

3.2

17.8

11.3

13.8

Sheet1

20112016Column1



horticulture3.217.8


Medium-scale (5-100 ha) share of national value marketed crop

output, Rwanda

11Source: Rwanda Integrated Household Living Condition Surveys

Chart1





2006

2014

% share

0.9

5.1

0.1

1.2

0.4

1.7

5.3

4

Sheet1

20062014Column1



horticulture0.41.7

legumes/oilseeds5.34

Land allocation by farm size category, Tanzania, 2014

Source: Agricultural Sample Census, 2014

Typology of MS farmersCategory 1: Formerly small-scale farmers who successfully expanded their operations –

• Now typically operate 5-20 ha• About 5-40%% of total MS farms

13

Category 2: Rural people who were primarily in non-farm jobs, then invested in farming

• Much more likely to be related to rural power structures – chiefs, state govt, religious leaders

• Now typically operating 5-20 ha• About 25%-40% of MS farms

Category 3: People formerly/currently reside in urban areas• Formerly or currently salaried jobs, public sector• Many retirees in this category• Typically operating 20-50 ha• Often “telephone farmers” • 40%-65% of total MS farms

Summary:1. Important changes in the distribution of farm sizes

• Decline in share of farmland under 5 hectare farms• Rising share of farmland under 5-100 hectare farms

• Not happening everywhere! Mainly in areas with potential for expansion of farmland, not in areas already facing acute land scarcity (e.g., Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya)

2. Rising vibrancy of land sales markets, based on willingness to pay criteria – usually with the support of national governments

3. Rising inequality of farmland distribution4. Rising land prices driven by relatively wealthy people seeking to

acquire land• not just for farming (speculation, housing/properties too)• Rise of new towns converting formerly remote land into valued property,

raising demand for land

Consequences of changing farm size distributions

1. Some positive synergies with nearby smallholder hh’s:

• Rising use of mechanization rental markets

• Pulling in commodity traders and input distributors

2. Some negative impacts on nearby smallholders:

• Greater inequality of farmland distribution

• Some displacement

• Rising land prices straining youth access to land

3. MS farms are driving crop area expansion in some countries, but not in land constrained areas

15

www.future-agricultures.org/apra

Next Steps • Synthesis report and policy brief planned for March 2019:

• Tentative title: Are Medium-Scale Farms Driving Agricultural Transformation in Africa? or “Are Medium-Scale Farms Driving Agricultural Transformation or Hastening Smallholders Exit from Farming, or Both?”

• Possible presentation at: • World Bank, April 2019• African Development Bank headquarters, April 2019• AAAE meetings, Abuja, September 2019

• Publication: Forthcoming in Agricultural Economics, November 2019

Thank You

17

Slide Number 1Medium-scale farms accounting for rising share of cultivated land, TanzaniaSlide Number 3Slide Number 4Medium-scale farms accounting for rising share of agricultural production value, TanzaniaShare (%) of total value of national marketed crop output:�GhanaShare (%) of total value of national marketed crop output by medium-scale farms is growing: GhanaMedium-scale (5-100 ha) farms accounting for rising share of national value marketed crop output, Ghana Medium-scale (5-100 ha) share of national value marketed crop output, Tanzania Slide Number 10Medium-scale (5-100 ha) share of national value marketed crop output, Rwanda Slide Number 12Typology of MS farmersSummary:Consequences of changing farm size distributionsSlide Number 16Slide Number 17

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Are Medium-Scale Farms Driving Agricultural …...Uganda, Kenya) 2. Rising vibrancy of land sales markets, based on willingness to pay criteria – usually with the support of national