Are we facing increasing extreme winds in the future?

Niels-Erik ClausenSara PryorXiaoli LarsenRebecca Barthelmie

Risø DTU, Denmark

EWEC 2009 Marseille session DT2A, 19 March 2009

Reijo HyvönenAri VenäläinenFMI, FinlandElina SuvilampiUniversity of Turku, FinlandErik Kjellström, SMHI, Sweden

2 Risø DTU, Technical University of Denmark

Outline

• Motivation and context• Climate change• The Climate Energy Systems (CES) project• Approach• Some results • Geostrophic wind in Finland• Applications

AcknowledgementsThe financial support by the Nordic Energy Research and by the energy sector in the Nordic countries is gratefully acknowledged as is the financial support to Sara Pryor from the National Science Foundation.

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Context – Nordel* 2007 statistics

Nordel Σ(renewable energy) = 58% in 2007

*Nordel is the organisation of the Nordic Transmission System Operators

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temp. incr. 2100: 1.1- 6.4ºC sea level rise 18–59 cm

Ref: IPCC, 2007 less fossil fuels

Emission scenario

Climate change at a glance

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Climate change at a glance

Temperature (K) Precipitation (%) Av. wind (%)

Changes in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990 (RCAO, A2)

H

adA

M3

H E

CH

AM

3

Annual average

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A lot of research done on temperature changes, precipitation, glaciers and sea level rise

…but so far not much work on climate change impact on wind…

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Climate & Energy Systems objective

• Improve the decision framework of the energy sector with regard to climate change impact on renewable energy resources and the energy system

• Project period 2007-2010• 30+ partners from the 5 Nordic + the Baltic countries• Focus on hydro, wind and biomass • Supported by Nordic Energy Research and the Nordic

Energy Industry (DONG Energy Denmark, Statkraft Norway, Elforsk Sweden and the Finnish Energy Industries)

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CES deliverables related to extreme wind

• Extreme wind atlas of the Nordic countries (50-year wind)

• Investigate climate change impact on extreme wind

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Approach

•Extreme wind is 50-year return wind derived from Gumbel distribution

•General circulation models* of atmosphere and sea (4x5º to 1.875ºx1.875º)

•Empirical downscaling using Weibull parameters

•Comparing model to measurements from 43 stations in historical period

•Dynamical downscaling using regional models* (0.44ºx0.44º)

•Comparing model data from scenario period to historical period

•Geostrophic wind from surface pressure differences

* Selected model runs from Prudence and Emsembles projects

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RESULTS

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Emperical downscaling of REMO data

time periods: REMO 1979-2003 - observations 1982-2000

50x50 km grid

m/s

Regional model from Max Planck Institute

50-year return period wind speeds from the REMO data set compared to observational data

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Empirical downscaling of eight models

U50yr at 10 m using the 8 AOGCMs 1961-90

m/s

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Change compared to 1961-90

The ensemble average change (%) in U50yr using 8 AOGCMs

Δ%

% change; 43 stations 2046-65 2081-2100*

<1% 26 stations 14 stations

>1% 17 (1-5%) 27 (1-10%) * 2 show decrease

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Regional model and emission scenario

Declines No change Increases

ECHAM4: A2 0.1 73.2 26.7

ECHAM4: B2 0.1 72.9 27.0

HadAM3: A2 6.0 90.1 3.9

HadAM3: B2 1.8 95.8 2.4

Rossby Centre regional model ECHAM4

Δ%

Rossby Centre regional model HadAM3

2071 relative to 1961-90

Changes in % for grid cells with significant changes

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Geostrophic wind in Finland

Calculations based on surface pressure diff

Calculations based on five climate models

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Conclusions

• Are we facing increasing extreme wind in the future?

• In northern Europe there are indications that we will see 0-10% increase of U50yr in 2100 (63% of stations).

• 33% of stations show < 1% change

• 4% show decrease

• Extreme wind is sensitive to choice of model

• Extreme wind appears less sensitive to emission scenario

• Essential to use multiple models (AOGCMs) for analysis of climate impact of extreme wind

• Next step: analysis of results from DMIs HIRHAM regional model 1950-2100

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Impact

Storebælt bridge Denmark

Design of wind turbines

Design of other infrastructure

Definition of design basis for Fehmern Belt fixed link

Photo DONG Energy

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Thank you for your attention

Middelgrunden20 x 2 MW

Project web www.os.is/ces

Contact: necl@risoe.dtu.dk