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AREPGAW
Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution
1
AREPGAW
Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution
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Lessons for Weather Forecasting….End-to-end forecast system “tuned” for end users
AREPGAW
Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution
3
Pollution Levels are determined by• emission regulators (both anthropogenic and biogenic,
including demography, shift in seasonal temperatures and the effect on energy consumption, plant and forest species, atmosphere-ocean interaction)
• transport regulators (wind, convection, mixing properties in the ABL)
• transformation regulators (rh, q, cloud cover and type, T, albedo and its effect on photolysis rates)
• removal regulators (precipitation frequency and amount, surface properties, bidirectional effects)
AREPGAW
Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution
4
Focus in CTM-modelling vs NWP
Parameter CTM NWP
Wind speed Stagnant conditions High wind speeds
Wind direction Essential for S-R-relationships
Not so important
Precipitation Length of dry periods; low intensity rain
Heavy rain
Temperature High temperatures – fast reactions and large biogenic emissions
High and low temperatures, freezing
Clouds Type, location, lifetime Cloud cover
Convection BL ventilation Precipitation
τBL,res , HmixImportant Not so important
Specific humidity Important for [OH] Not so important
Ground surface Important for q, deposition, biogenic emissions
Important for fluxes of heat, momentum, moisture
AREPGAW
Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution
5
Medium range weather forecasting – what is the right time length for air quality forecasts?
• Acidification of soils and waters: ecosystems, seasons to multiannual
• Terrestrial eutrophication: ecosystems, seasonal to multiannual
• Marine eutrophication: ecosystems, seasonal to multiannual• Ground level ozone - human health: hours and days• Ground level ozone - forests and crops: growing season• Particles - human health: hours to long term• Health and ecotoxic effects - heavy metals: long term• Health and ecotoxic effects – POPs: long term• Regional climate change: years• Regional UV change: years + day-to-day variabilityAir quality problems can in principle be abated (atmospheric
sustainability)The traditional NWP forecast focus (≤10d) not so relevant
AREPGAW
Section 7 – Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution
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Observational NeedsChemical Meteorological
Modeling Needs Weather predictionChemical weather and air quality prediction
Air Quality & Related ProductsImproved ForecastsGuidelinesPilot Projects
UsersHealth Agriculture EnvironmentalPublicEmergency Response
Capacity BuildingWorkshopsTraining
Assimilation
Dissemination
Coordination
Education
Demonstration
GURME Tasks For The Strategic Planning Period 2008-2015