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9/16/2015
1
Pat Westhoff ([email protected]) Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
University of Missouriwww.fapri.missouri.edu
Webinar September 16, 2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
60
124
58
Billion dolla
rs
Source: USDA Economic Research Service, August 2015
9/16/2015
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
Dolla
rs per bush
el
Farm price Nov. futures
Sources: USDA WASDE, Sep. 2015; CME November futures contracts, Sep. 15, 2015
The macro economy
The farm commodity market outlook Corn
Soybeans
Rice
Cotton
Livestock
What could change the outlook
9/16/2015
3
2014 2015 2016 2017
Real GDP growth
IHS (July) 2.4 2.2 3.1 2.7
Economist poll (Sep.) 2.4 2.6
CPI inflation
IHS (July) 1.6 0.2 1.8 2.3
Economist poll (Sep.) 0.4 2.0
Fed funds interest rate
IHS (July) 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.7
Unemployment rate
IHS (July) 6.2 5.4 5.1 5.0
Sources: IHS Global Insight, July 2015 and The Economist magazine poll of forecasters, September 2015
‐4
‐2
0
2
4
6
8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Perce
nt
Real GDP growth 30‐year mortgage rate
Source: IHS Global Insight, July 2015
9/16/2015
4
2014 2015 2016 2017
World
IHS (July) 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.4
China
IHS (July) 7.4 6.5 6.3 6.5
Economist poll (Sep.) 6.9 6.7
Euro area
IHS (July) 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.8
Economist poll (Sep.) 1.4 1.7
Mexico
IHS (July) 2.1 2.8 3.3 3.8
Sources: IHS Global Insight, July 2015 and The Economist magazine poll of forecasters, September 2015
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Million m
etric tons
Pork Chicken Beef
Increase in China’s consumption from 1991‐2015: 49 mmtTotalU.S. consumption in 2015: 36 mmt
Source: USDA’s PSD Online, September 2015
9/16/2015
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2014 2015 2016 2017
Euro per dollar 0.75 0.91 0.90 0.84
(dollars per euro) 1.33 1.10 1.11 1.19
(Sep. 15, 2015) 1.13
Chinese yuan per dollar 6.18 6.21 6.29 6.31
(Sep. 15, 2015) 6.37
Japanese yen per dollar 106 123 127 129
(Sep. 15, 2015) 120
Brazilian real per dollar 2.35 3.08 3.18 3.22
(Sep. 15, 2015) 3.86
Sources: IHS Global Insight, July 2015 and www.x‐rates.com, Sep. 15, 2015
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100
200
300
400
500
600
July 2013 July 2014 July 2015
In U.S. dollars per metric ton
Central Illinois Rio Grande Brazil
Source: USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service “Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade,” various issues and author calculations using monthly exchange rates reported by www.x‐rates.com
9/16/2015
6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
July 2013 July 2014 July 2015
In U.S. dollars per metric ton
Central Illinois Rio Grande Brazil
Source: USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service “Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade,” various issues and author calculations using monthly exchange rates reported by www.x‐rates.com
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
July 2013 July 2014 July 2015
In Brazilian reals per metric ton
Central Illinois Rio Grande Brazil
‐25% vs. 2013
+6% vs. 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Dolla
rs per barrel
IHS July June futures
Sources: IHS Global Insight, July 2015 and NYMEX June futures contracts, September 15, 2015
9/16/2015
7
FAPRI‐MU baseline update
Issued September 1
Based on mid‐August conditions
USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Issued September 11
Thus includes more up‐to‐date information
But there’s still much to learn about this year’s crop
9/16/2015
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60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Million acres
Area planted and harvested
Planted Harvested
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19Bush
els per acre
Yield
FAPRI‐Aug. USDA‐Sep.
Sources: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, August 2015 and USDA WASDE, September 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
Billion bush
els
FAPRI‐MU August USDA September
Sources: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, August 2015 and USDA WASDE, September 2015
9/16/2015
9
Sep. USDA2014/15
Sep. USDA2015/16
Aug. FAPRI 2015/16
Aug. FAPRI2016/17
Area planted (mil. a.) 90.6 88.9 88.9 90.5
Area harvested (mil. a.) 83.1 81.1 81.1 82.6
Yield (bu./a.) 171.0 167.5 168.8 166.8
Supply & use (mil. bu.)
Production 14,216 13,585 13,686 13,772
Feed & residual use 5,300 5,275 5,269 5,319
Ethanol & coproduct use 5,205 5,250 5,253 5,240
Other domestic use 1,365 1,380 1,361 1,357
Exports 1,875 1,850 1,886 1,872
Ending stocks 1,732 1,592 1,720 1,734
Price per bushel $3.68 $3.45‐$4.05 $3.68 $3.71
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
Dolla
rs per bush
el
Farm price Dec. futures
Sources: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, Aug. 2015; CME December futures contracts, Sep. 15, 2015
9/16/2015
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Dolla
rs per acre
Market revenues, variable costs
Market revenues Variable costs
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19Dolla
rs per acre
Market net returns
Market net returns
Source: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, August 2015
9/16/2015
11
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Million acres
Area planted and harvested
Planted Harvested
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19Bush
els per acre
Yield
FAPRI‐Aug. USDA‐Sep.
Sources: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, August 2015 and USDA WASDE, September 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16
Million m
etric tons
China imports
U.S. exports
Brazil exports
Source: USDA PSD Online, September 2015
9/16/2015
12
Sep. USDA2014/15
Sep. USDA2015/16
Aug. FAPRI 2015/16
Aug. FAPRI2016/17
Area planted (mil. a.) 83.7 84.3 84.3 82.4
Area harvested (mil. a.) 83.1 83.5 83.5 81.6
Yield (bu./a.) 47.8 47.1 46.9 44.9
Supply & use (mil. bu.)
Production 3,969 3,935 3,916 3,665
Crush 1,870 1,870 1,867 1,867
Other domestic use 179 130 145 143
Exports 1,835 1,725 1,773 1,785
Ending stocks 210 450 401 301
Price per bushel $10.06 $8.40‐9.90 $9.12 $9.15
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05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
Dolla
rs per bush
el
Farm price Nov. futures
Sources: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, Aug. 2015; CME November futures contracts, Sep. 15, 2015
9/16/2015
13
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Dolla
rs per acre
Market revenues, variable costs
Market revenues Variable costs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19Dolla
rs per acre
Market net returns
Market net returns
Source: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, August 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Dolla
rs per acre
Corn
Soybeans
Source: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, August 2015
9/16/2015
14
Sep. USDA2014/15
Sep. USDA2015/16
Aug. FAPRI 2015/16
Aug. FAPRI2016/17
Area planted (mil. a.) 2.94 2.61 2.77 2.91
Area harvested (mil. a.) 2.92 2.57 2.74 2.89
Yield (lb./a.) 7,572 7,374 7,472 7,603
Supply & use (mil. cwt.)
Production 221.0 189.5 205.0 219.7
Imports 24.7 25.5 25.5 25.5
Domestic use & residual 128.7 125.0 129.4 129.7
Exports 100.3 97.0 105.7 112.5
Ending stocks 48.5 41.5 43.3 46.3
Price per hundredweight $13.20 14.20‐15.20 $13.78 $13.84
Long grain rice $11.90 12.80‐13.80 $11.95 $12.45
9/16/2015
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Dolla
rs per hundredweight
U.S.
Thai
Source: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, August 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Dolla
rs per hundredweight
Japonica
Other M/S
Long grain
Nov. futures
Source: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, August 2015; CME rough rice futures, Sep. 15, 2015
9/16/2015
16
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Dolla
rs per acre
Market revenues, variable costs
Market revenues Variable costs
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19Dolla
rs per acre
Market net returns
Market net returns
Source: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, August 2015
9/16/2015
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16
Million bales Production
Use
End. stocks
Imports
Source: USDA’s PSD Online, September 2015
Sep. USDA2014/15
Sep. USDA2015/16
Aug. FAPRI 2015/16
Aug. FAPRI2016/17
Area planted (mil. a.) 10.85 8.40 8.75 9.09
Area harvested (mil. a.) 9.16 8.01 7.75 7.56
Yield (lb./a.) 826 777 784 812
Supply & use (mil. bales)
Production 15.75 12.98 12.65 12.78
Mill use 3.55 3.68 3.66 3.76
Exports 10.84 9.70 9.38 9.00
Ending stocks 3.44 3.01 3.04 3.07
Price per pound (cents) 60.5 58‐72 65.1 63.8
9/16/2015
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0
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100
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
Cen
ts per pound
Farm price Dec. futures
Sources: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, Aug. 2015; CME December futures contracts, Sep. 15, 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Dolla
rs per acre
Market revenues, variable costs
Market revenues Variable costs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Dolla
rs per acre
Market net returns
Market net returns
Source: FAPRI‐MU baseline update, August 2015
9/16/2015
19
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Corn ($/bu.) 4.46 3.70 3.68 3.71 3.96 4.09 4.14 4.13
Soybeans ($/bu.) 13.00 10.05 9.12 9.15 9.98 10.31 10.42 10.50
Wheat ($/bu.) 6.87 5.99 5.10 5.05 5.24 5.55 5.72 5.76
Durum 7.46 8.81 6.31 6.01 6.23 6.61 6.82 6.87
Other spring 6.73 5.75 5.38 5.35 5.55 5.87 6.05 6.09
Winter 6.89 5.92 4.94 4.91 5.09 5.39 5.56 5.59
Upland cotton (cents/lb.) 77.90 60.50 65.07 63.78 63.10 65.84 67.07 67.22
Sorghum ($/bu.) 4.28 4.00 3.90 3.73 3.90 4.02 4.04 4.04
Rice ($/cwt) 16.30 13.30 13.78 13.84 13.71 14.06 14.26 14.32
Long grain 15.40 11.90 11.95 12.45 12.33 12.79 13.08 13.16
Medium/short (exc. Japonica) 15.70 14.60 14.81 14.95 14.86 14.81 14.92 15.03
Japonica 20.70 20.50 21.01 19.44 19.31 19.25 19.40 19.54
Barley ($/bu.) 6.06 5.30 4.58 4.40 4.62 4.75 4.83 4.83
Oats ($/bu.) 3.75 3.21 2.35 2.66 2.72 2.77 2.80 2.80
Peanuts (cents/lb.) 24.90 22.00 20.02 19.61 21.27 22.36 23.13 22.95
Sunflower seed ($/cwt) 21.40 22.25 19.10 19.02 21.27 20.18 20.60 20.79
Canola ($/cwt) 20.60 17.00 16.68 16.54 17.05 17.52 18.06 18.26
Note: FAPRI‐MU prepared these projections in August 2015 based on information available at that time.
2014 2015 2016
Beef production (bil. lbs.) 24.32 23.61 24.99
Pork production (bil. lbs.) 22.86 24.54 24.72
Broiler production (bil. lbs.) 38.14 39.58 40.66
Milk production (bil. lbs.) 206.0 208.9 213.0
5‐area direct steers per cwt. $154.56 $152‐$155 $147‐$159
51‐52% lean hogs per cwt. $76.03 $50‐$51 $46‐$49
All milk per cwt. $23.97 $16.80‐$17.00 $16.10‐$17.10
Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, September 2015
9/16/2015
20
Projection for USDA FAPRI‐MU Futures
Next year 12.5% 15.0% 19.0%
2 years ahead 17.7% 20.4% 25.1%
3 years ahead 22.9% 22.3% 23.6%
4 years ahead 26.2% 26.1% 24.2%
5 years ahead 29.7% 28.9% 26.9%
Average of above 21.8% 22.5% 23.8%
Sources: USDA and Futures estimates by Scott Irwin and Darrell Good in a FarmDoc piece posted Feb. 4 (http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2015/02/long‐term‐forecasts‐and‐farm‐bill‐program‐choice.html). FAPRI‐MU estimates compiled by FAPRI‐MU and reported in a FarmDoc piece by Pat Westhoff on Feb. 12 (http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2015/02/price‐projections‐and‐farm‐bill‐program‐choices.html).
Weather
General economy
Policy
“Black swans”
9/16/2015
21
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Dolla
rs per bush
el
Actual/average
Source: FAPRI‐MU stochastic baseline, March 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Dolla
rs per bush
el
Actual/average
#5
Source: FAPRI‐MU stochastic baseline, March 2015
2017 yield in #5: 176 bu./a.
9/16/2015
22
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Dolla
rs per bush
el
Actual/average
#5
#255
#455
Reference
Source: FAPRI‐MU stochastic baseline, March 2015
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1
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3
4
5
6
7
8
06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Dolla
rs per bush
el
Actual/average
90th percentile
10th percentile
Reference
Source: FAPRI‐MU stochastic baseline, March 2015
9/16/2015
23
Projected payments Program election
(2014‐18, $/acre) (share of base area)
ARC PLC ARC PLC
Corn $27 $20 93% 7%
Soybeans $17 $10 97% 3%
Wheat $11 $14 58% 42%
Sorghum $11 $21 34% 66%
Barley $10 $22 25% 75%
Oats $2 $1 68% 32%
All rice $4 $66 5% 95%
Peanuts $45 $138 0% 100%
Sources: FAPRI‐MU stochastic baseline, March 2015;
calculations based on USDA election data, June 2015.
Notes: Projected payments are average annual
payments across 500 stochastic outcomes. Rice
figures are for all rice; nearly 100% of long grain
rice base area elected PLC.
Source: Table 1 from Choices article by Westhoff, Gerlt and Glauber, http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices‐magazine/submitted‐articles/farm‐program‐elections‐budget‐costs‐and‐the‐wto
0
1
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14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
Billion dolla
rs
ARC payments
90th percentile Mean 10th percentile
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
Billion dolla
rs
PLC payments
90th percentile Mean 10th percentile
Source: Figures 2 and 3 from Choices article by Westhoff, Gerlt and Glauber, http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices‐magazine/submitted‐articles/farm‐program‐elections‐budget‐costs‐and‐the‐wto
9/16/2015
24
Global grain and oilseed supplies remain large, depressing prices
With a mature biofuel sector and questions about China, what will be the future engine of crop demand growth?
Under normal conditions, expect crop prices to average well below recent peak levels
Weather and other factors can always cause a positive (or negative) surprise in any given year
FAPRI‐MU website: www.fapri.missouri.edu
To contact Pat Westhoff: 573‐882‐4647 [email protected]
FAPRI‐MU team: Julian Binfield Sera Chiuchiarelli Deepayan Debnath Scott Gerlt Hoa Hoang Lauren Jackson Willi Meyers Kateryna Schroeder Wyatt Thompson Jarrett Whistance Peter Zimmel