Arlington County

The State of Affordable Housing

May 14, 2014

Housing Affordability– Building a Sustainable Future

Rental Housing Trends and Projections

Analyzed existing trends over past 10 years Committed Affordable Units (CAFS) Market Rate Affordable Units (MARKS)

60% Area Median Income (AMI) 80% AMI

Market Rate Units

Projections over next 10 years Straight-line projections

Rental Housing Trends

Definitions: MARK = Market Rate Affordable Unit; CAF = Committed Affordable Unit

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

CAFS 60% MARKS 80% MARKS Market Rate Units

Uni

ts

So Where Have the MARKS Gone?

1,218Condo Conversion

10.5%

1,367 Net Rede-

velopment 11.8% 581

Redevel-opment

CAFs 5.0%

1,948Preserved as CAFs 16.9%

1,419Renovation

12.3%

5,014Rent In-

crease43.4%

Rental Housing Trends & Projections

Note: Straight-line projection assuming 4-year avg. percent growth/decline continues into future

Projections

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

CAFS 60% MARKS 80% MARKS Market Rate Units

Uni

ts

Trends

Regional Home Ownership Trends

Year Avg. Sales Price

Avg. Annual % Change in

Price

Total Sales

Historical/Cultural Notes of Interest

1980 $90,744 -- 19,527 Pac-Man video game released

1985 $113,120 5% 22,422 ‘Cosby’ is top TV show

1990 $174,616 11% 23,278 Milli Vanilli admit to lip-synching

1995 $211,098 4% 13,783 Bullets change name to Wizards

2000 $252,374 4% 26,062 Y2K - The world does not end!

2005 $537,116 23% 29,235 Madonna ties Elvis for most Top 10 singles

2010 $469,018 -3% 17,858 Apple releases Ipad

2013 $540,034 3% 20,355 ‘Selfie’ and ‘Twerk’ added to dictionary

Includes Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, and Falls ChurchSource: Sun Gazette - April 2014 Spring Real Estate Guide

Arlington Home Ownership TrendsYear Avg. Sales Price Percent Change in

PriceTotal Sales

SINGLE FAMILY

Aug ‘10 to July ‘11 $770,600 -- 915

Aug ‘11 to July ‘12 $786,332 2% 1,078

Aug ‘12 to July ‘13 $826,705 5% 1,118

TOWNHOUSE

Aug ‘10 to July ‘11 $684,318 -- 248

Aug ‘11 to July ‘12 $692,050 1% 242

Aug ‘12 to July ‘13 $731,728 6% 243

CONDOMINIUM

Aug ‘10 to July ‘11 $434,125 -- 1,288

Aug ‘11 to July ‘12 $440,680 2% 1,291

Aug ‘12 to July ‘13 $439,810 -0.2% 1,550

8

Who are we Housing?

9

Who Needs our Housing?

10

Who Needs our Housing?

11

Who Needs our Housing?

12

Who Needs our Housing?

“Out of the Box” Thinking

Modular units?

“Out of the Box” Thinking

Public Land for

Public Good?

“Out of the Box” Thinking

Infill Development?

“Out of the Box” Thinking

Pop Ups?

Sneak Peak - 2015 State of Affordable Housing

Affordable Arlington

An overview of the newest

Comprehensive Plan element

Coming Soon