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Arrangements and procedures to assess security risks and national
defence requirements
COL Dr Catalin-Marius Tarnacop
NATO Studies Centre
Agenda
• Underlying Principles
• Underlying Process
• Management of the process
What is Defence Policy?
Defence Policy “ involves the political direction of a nation’s defence resources as a whole with a
view to ensuring national security, protecting vital interests and furthering the international aims of
the state”
…the hand-maiden of a nation’s Foreign Policy
Why?
• Major Change – Internal– External
• Differing objectives– Appropriate (Roles, Size, Shape, Capabilities,
Equipment, Professionalism)– Accountable (mechanisms, openness,
transparency)– Affordable (Public Expenditure, Efficiency)
Why?
“The aim of the National Defence Strategy is to make Armed Forces and their
supporting structures modern, professional, accountable and efficient. They also have
to be affordable within a medium term economic framework.”
National Defence Strategy or Security Sector Review ?
Defence
Issues
Defence
Issues
National Defence Strategy or Security Sector Review ?
Security Sector Issues
Security Sector Issues
Defence
Issues
Defence
Issues
National Defence Strategy or Security Sector Review ?
State Security IssuesState Security Issues
Security Sector Issues
Security Sector Issues
Defence Issues
Defence Issues
• National Defence Strategy should start from Foreign Policy goals, but it is only a Defence Review
• The Security Sector Review is much broader– more holistic approach for SSR, to include all
security sector actors– SSR addresses defence as just one element
National Defence Strategy or Security Sector Review ?
Advantages of SSR vs NDS
• Establish optimum resources for Defence vs rest of public sector
• Identify best/alternative means of addressing threats
• Identify non-military tasks that require military response
Security Sector Reform Process Develop Context
Descriptions
Identify security threats
Develop Security Policy
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions& Tasks
Develop Capabilities &Force options
Develop Law& Order Policy
Develop Legal Framework
Amend social policies
Develop Foreign policy
Agreement of options
Develop associatedPolicies, etc
Publication
…
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…
4
65
7
8
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2
3
1
B
D
E
F
G
H
C
THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
[GOVERNMENT PROGRAM (DEFENCE)]
- THE NATIONAL DEFENSE STRATEGY -
STRATEGIES, PROGRAMS AND DEPARTAMENTAL PLANS
THE NATIONAL MILITARY STRATEGY
DEFENSE PLANNING GUIDANCEGUIDELINES OR STRATEGIC PLANNING DIRECTIVES, SPECIFIC TO THE
INSTITUTIONS WHICH ARE TASK-ASSIGNED IN THE DEFENSE AREA OF
EXPERTISE
STRATEGIC PLANNING DIRECTIVE
JOINT STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES PLAN
ANNUAL PLANS CONCERNING THE MODERNIZATION AND THE TRAINING
OF FORCES BASED ON
LONG TERM PROCUREMENT STRATEGY
JOINT DOCTRINE OF THE ARMED FORCES
SERVICES DOCTRINES
REGULATIONS (FIELD MANUALS); DISPOSITIONS;
GUIDELINES
MILITARY STRATEGIC LEVEL
OPERATIONAL LEVEL
TACTICAL LEVEL
11
22
33
44
55
66
National security and defence hierarchyNATIONAL SECURITY
LEVEL
Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 1Develop Context
Descriptions
Identify security threats
Develop Security Policy
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions& Tasks
Develop Capabilities &Force options
Develop Law& Order Policy
Develop Legal Framework
Amend social policies
Develop Foreign policy
Agreement of options
Develop associatedPolicies, etc
Publication
…
…
…
…
4
65
7
8
9
1
2
3
Stage 1: Develop Context Descriptions
• What ?– Rational views of the possible future covering best
to worst (“scenarios”)
• How ? - Based upon establishing “drivers”– Physical, Technological, Economic, Social/Cultural, Legal,
Political, Military
• Who?– Defence Policy staff – Government Departments (Foreign Affairs,
Finance, Interior, Other)– Civil society (academics)– Parliament
The new Strategic Realities (1)
• A new Europe and Eurasia• The rise of ethnic and religious tensions• Weak states and ungoverned areas• Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction• Drugs and organised crime• Terrorism • Environmental degradation
The new Strategic Realities (2)
• Population growth and demographic change• Urbanisation and transnational migration flows• Resource shortages, especially of water and oil• Globalisation and growing disparities• The pace of technological change• The pace of social change
The New Strategic Environment compared to Cold War Era
• More interdependent• More vulnerable due to increasing reliance on
technology• More uncertain due to increasing range of challenges
& threats • More varied due to the nature of challenges & threats • More demanding due to complexity • An environment with smaller scale, but more frequent
use of force international issues, often asymmetrical operations
• Complex, dynamic, having a lot of instability sources
• The threat of a major military conflict has diminishedRisks
• Regional (tensions and conflicts that may extend)• Asymmetric (terrorism, weapons mass destruction)• Transnational (drug trafficking, organized crime,
illegal immigration)• Contingencies (placed in the area of uncertainty)
The New Strategic Environment (2)
Other factors
• National interests• Values• International Commitments and Responsibilities• Security Priorities:
– Support to the Civil Power– Europe– Outside Europe
Future worldsPOLITICS & GOVERNANCE
REGIONAL/
RESOURCE
INTERNA -TIONAL
SOCIAL COHESION ECONOMIC MILITARY
Political Stability Modern state. Regional leader in stable, resource rich region.
Fully and Effectively Engaged
Fully Developed, Harmonious and Stable.
Steadily increasing, broad & sustainable economic improvement
Constitutional, Peaceful & Stable
Relative political stability
Existence within a stabilising region
Constructively Engaged
General improvement Gradual economic improvement
Professionalising military with gradually improving civil-military relations
Political Instability
Existence within a turbulent region.
Increasingly engaged
Fluid, improving in many areas, declining in some
Economic fragility Professionalising military with difficult civil-military relations
Political Chaos Regional failure leading to competition over poor resources
Ill-prepared Disintegration and Chaos Economic Decline Contempt of Constitution and Law
Severe resource & environmental constraint leading to internal instability and regional conflict.
Relative Isolation
Economic Collapse Military government
Complete failure of state leading to external control
Disintegration & warlordism
Future worldsPOLITICS & GOVERNANCE
REGIONAL/
RESOURCE
INTERNA -TIONAL
SOCIAL COHESION ECONOMIC MILITARY
Political Stability Modern state. Regional leader in stable, resource rich region.
Fully and Effectively Engaged
Fully Developed, Harmonious and Stable.
Steadily increasing, broad & sustainable economic improvement
Constitutional, Peaceful & Stable
Relative political stability
Existence within a stabilising region
Constructively Engaged
General improvement Gradual economic improvement
Professionalising military with gradually improving civil-military relations
Political Instability
Existence within a turbulent region.
Increasingly engaged
Fluid, improving in many areas, declining in some
Economic fragility Professionalising military with difficult civil-military relations
Political Chaos Regional failure leading to competition over poor resources
Ill-prepared Disintegration and Chaos Economic Decline Contempt of Constitution and Law
Severe resource & environmental constraint leading to internal instability and regional conflict.
Relative Isolation
Economic Collapse Military government
Complete failure of state leading to external control
Disintegration & warlordism
Military drivers
Disintegration and warlordism
Military government
Contempt of constitution and law
Professionalising military with difficult civil military relations
Professionalising military with gradually improving civil military relations
Constitutional, peaceful and stableBest state
Problem state
Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 2Develop Context
Descriptions
Identify security threats
Develop Security Policy
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions& Tasks
Develop Capabilities &Force options
Develop Law& Order Policy
Develop Legal Framework
Amend social policies
Develop Foreign policy
Agreement of options
Develop associatedPolicies, etc
Publication
…
…
…
…
4
65
7
8
9
1
2
3
Stage 2 - Develop Threat Descriptions
• What ?Agreed understanding of security threats
within chosen future worlds• How ?Individual , then group view
Risk analysis
No set format, should include:
- Political & security risk analysis- Political threat assessment- Intelligence & security briefs- Military threat analysis- Military estimate (Aim, Factors, Own course,
Plan/Recommendation)- Economic risk analysis- Commercial risk analysis
Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 3Develop Context
Descriptions
Identify security threats
Develop Security Policy
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions& Tasks
Develop Capabilities &Force options
Develop Law& Order Policy
Develop Legal Framework
Amend social policies
Develop Foreign policy
Agreement of options
Develop associatedPolicies, etc
Publication
…
…
…
…
4
65
7
8
9
1
2
3
Stage 3 - Establish Security Policy• What?
– Statement of broad defence requirements of the State and role of the military and other instruments of State in addressing identified threats.
• How? Based upon– Threats– Previously agreed policies or obligations (including
regional co-operation)
• Who? National Security Council &– Defence Policy staff– Foreign Ministry– Interior Ministry – Finance Ministry– Other Government Ministries– Civil Society– Parliament
National Security Strategy
InternationalEnvironment
Domestic Environment
PotentialPower
Actual Power/InstrumentsPriorities
Statecraft
Policies and Results
Objectives
National Interests
Opportunities/Threats
MEANSENDS
COSTRISK
Assumptions
Analysis
Plans
Implementation
Evaluation
Stage 3 - Security Policy Components
Role of Foreign Affairs
Ministry
Role of Internal Affairs
Role of Finance
Ministry
Role of Defence
Role of Intelligence Role of
Education/ Health etc
Role of Presidents/Prime Ministers Office
Role of Justice Ministry
Stage 3 - Security Policy
Foreign Affairs
Internal Affairs
Finance
DefenceIntelligence Education/ Health etc
President’s/ Prime Ministers Office
Justice
Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 4Develop Context
Descriptions
Identify security threats
Develop Security Policy
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions& Tasks
Develop Capabilities &Force options
Develop Law& Order Policy
Develop Legal Framework
Amend social policies
Develop Foreign policy
Agreement of options
Develop associatedPolicies, etc
Publication
…
…
…
…
4
65
7
8
9
1
2
3
Stage 4 - Develop Defence Policy
• What?
– Statement of defence role in meeting security
priorities
• How?
– Based upon Security Policy
• Who?
– Defence Policy staff
– Civil Society
– Other Government Departments
National Defence Strategy ProcessDevelop Context
Descriptions
Develop ContextDescriptions
Develop militarythreat
descriptions
Develop militarythreat
descriptions
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Capability
& Force Options
Develop Capability
& Force Options
Developassociated policies
processes structures
Developassociated policies
processes structures
Develop Missions & Tasks
Develop Missions & Tasks
Capability
Planning
Defence
Policy
PlanningResource
Planning
Operational
Planning
Requirements
Planning
Effective linkage is essential
Joint Strategic Planning System
Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 5Develop Context
Descriptions
Identify security threats
Develop Security Policy
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions& Tasks
Develop Capabilities &Force options
Develop Law& Order Policy
Develop Legal Framework
Amend social policies
Develop Foreign policy
Agreement of options
Develop associatedPolicies, etc
Publication
…
…
…
…
4
65
7
8
9
1
2
3
Stage 5 - Develop Defence Missions and Military Tasks
• What ?– Defence Missions & associated Military Tasks
• How ?– Based on Defence policy and planning
assumptions
• Who ?– Defence Policy staff– Military Operational Staff– Military Support Staff
Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 6Develop Context
Descriptions
Identify security threats
Develop Security Policy
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions& Tasks
Develop Capabilities &Force options
Develop Law& Order Policy
Develop Legal Framework
Amend social policies
Develop Foreign policy
Agreement of options
Develop associatedPolicies, etc
Publication
…
…
…
…
4
65
7
8
9
1
2
3
Stage 6 - Develop Capability & Force Options
• What? Options for Military Capability: Command & control; intelligence & surveillance;
maneuver (doctrine and training); mobility & counter-mobility; firepower; protection; logistics
• How? - Based upon components of missions and military
tasks, planning assumptions, military doctrine • Who?- Defence Policy staff; Military Operational Staff;
Military Support Staff; Civil Society ?
Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 7Develop Context
Descriptions
Identify security threats
Develop Security Policy
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions& Tasks
Develop Capabilities &Force options
Develop Law& Order Policy
Develop Legal Framework
Amend social policies
Develop Foreign policy
Agreement of options
Develop associatedPolicies, etc
Publication
…
…
…
…
4
65
7
8
9
1
2
3
Stage 7 - Agreement of Options• What ?
– Agreed Military Capability• How ?
– Costed options assessed against national needs • Who?
– Defence Minister– Chief of Staff– Finance Minister– Cabinet/Prime Minister/President– Civil Society?
Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 8Develop Context
Descriptions
Identify security threats
Develop Security Policy
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions& Tasks
Develop Capabilities &Force options
Develop Law& Order Policy
Develop Legal Framework
Amend social policies
Develop Foreign policy
Agreement of options
Develop associatedPolicies, etc
Publication
…
…
…
…
4
65
77
8
9
1
2
3
Stage 8 - Develop associated policies, processes, structures etc
• Personnel
• Procurement & Logistics
• Finance
• Policy and planning
• Accountability
• Linkages to rest of government
Security Sector Reform Process – Stage 9Develop Context
Descriptions
Identify security threats
Develop Security Policy
Develop Defence Policy
Develop Missions& Tasks
Develop Capabilities &Force options
Develop Law& Order Policy
Develop Legal Framework
Amend social policies
Develop Foreign policy
Agreement of options
Develop associatedPolicies, etc
Publication
…
…
…
…
4
65
7
8
9
1
2
3
Stage 9 - Publication
• Make publicly available
• Parliamentary debate
Timetable
• Will probably take longer than planned!
Other countries experience:14 months to 2 years
Management of the National Defence Strategy
• Institutional framework• Top level involvement/support• Clear aims and objectives• Dedicated coordinating team• Continuity of (key) participants• Open and Inclusive process• Plan and manage the project • Realistic implementation plan
Implementation
• Long term • Quick wins• Build into normal planning processes• Delegate responsibility to specific individuals• Monitor progress, including oversight by
Parliament• Flexible
Questions ?
Invenzia Generic Threats
Environmental stress/resource constraints – inadequate resources available
7th
6th
Internal security – tensions Muslim community
Civil disaster – major event5th
Organised crime, terrorism, proliferation WMD4th
Border insecurity – Muslim armed separatist movement / Thrucazia
3rd
Destabilising external influences2nd
Border insecurity - dispute Norvetia /Eastlandia1st
Invenzia - Generic Threats
L M H
L
M
H
Probability
Imp
act
T11 - Border Insecurity - Common Transgression
T13 - Border Insecurity - Major illegal movements of goods/people
T15 - Border Insecurity -Regular military bodies (Raids to Full -scale invasion)
T22 -Destabilising External Influences –Reasonable Impact
T23 -Destabilising External Influences –Active hostility (Major Impact)
T32 - Environmental Stress/Resource Constraints –Sufficient Resource Available
T33 - Environmental Stress/Resource Constraints –Inadequate Resource Available
T34 - Environmental Stress/Resource Constraints –Severe Resource Scarcity
T41 - Political Instability -Stable
T42 - Political Instability -Tensions
T45 - Political Instability -Ethnic competition through arms rather than popular mandate
T52 - Human Underdevelopment –Fairly Literate & Trained Society
T54 - Human Underdevelopment – Underfed, Malnourished, Subsistence, etc.
T61 - Internal Security – Minimal Threat
T62 - Internal Security - Tensions
T65 - Internal Security –Breakdown
T72 - Civil Disaster –Localised Problems
T73 - Civil Disaster – Serious Event(s)
T74 - Civil Disaster – Major Event(s)
T82 - Economic Shocks & Stress – Medium Sustainable Growth
T92 -Social Polarisation – Good Social Relations.
T85 - Economic Shocks & Stress – Economic Collapse
T93 -Social Polarisation – Fluid
T94 -Social Polarisation –Severely Polarised
I. DIRECTIONS
II. CONCEPT DEVELOP-MENT
III OPERATIONAL AND STRATEGIC PLANS
OPTIONS
(ANALYSIS)
MISSIONS
IV.
SUPPORT
IV. CONCEPT DEFINITION
II. SELECTION OF CONCEPT
VI. PRODUCTION AND
SERVICES IMPLEMENTATION
VIII. EQUIPMENT DESTRUCTION
V. TECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT
SCENARIOS
I. MISSION REQUIRE- MENTS
III. OPERATIONALREQUIRMENTS
VII.CONDUCT AND SUPPORT
JSCP
MIL STRAT
FRA
DP
PPDPG
PO
AB
JSPS
PPBS
ANALYSIS
DB
CP
DEFENSE PLANNING COUNCIL
JSPS - Joint Strategic Planning System;
JSCP - Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan;
MIL STRAT - Military Strategy;
DP - Defense Programs.
PPBS - Planning, programming, budgeting and evaluating system in the MOND;
FRA - Force and resource assessment;
DPG - Defense Planning Guidance.
PO - Programming objectives;
PP - Project Programs;
PE - Program expenditures;
DB - Budget draft;
AB - Approved budget.
JOPES
ACQ
Defence planning system