Upload
eunice-taylor
View
225
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Arshil Jamal
SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management
Angela Jonkhans
Vice President, Capital Management
United Kingdom Payout Annuities
2
UK Payout Annuities
Market Overview
Mortality
Capital Market Solutions
3
U.K. Payout Annuities – Total Market Premium
11.6
9.6
7.97.57.47.26.3
5.74.9
4.23.22.9
2.2
11.0
0
5
10
15
Ne
w P
rem
ium
(£
Bill
ion
s)
Market has grown by 9% per year on average from 2003 to 2008
9% CAGR
Source: MARS, 2008
4
Canada Life U.K. Annuity Sales
1,007
812757
637579
418
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Sal
es (
£ M
illio
ns)
Canada Life sales have grown at 19% per annum on average since 2003
19% CAGR
Source: MARS, 2008
5
UK New Sales – Annuities to all Distribution Channels - 2008
A 24%
F 5%
E 8%
H 4%
Other 18%
B 14%
C 14%
Canada Life 9%
G 4%
Canada Life is the fourth largest provider of new annuities in the UK
New Sales - 2008
Source: MARS, 2008
6
UK Payout Annuity Market - 2008
Just under half of annuities are written by the company that managed / administered the pensions accumulation policy
Source: MARS, 2008
7
UK New Sales External Annuities to all Channels - 2008
A16%
B20%
C14%
I5%
J4%
Other3%
Canada Life17%
F11%
E10%
Excluding internal conventional rollover business, Canada Life is the second largest provider of new annuities in the UK
Source: MARS, 2008
8
UK Payout Annuity Assets
1.6 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.9 4.6 5.0 5.6
2.32.1 1.9
1.7
4.3 4.1 4.0
5.8
0
5
10
15
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
As
se
ts (
£ B
illio
n)
Canada Life Resolution Equitable Standard Life
6.2
11.0 11.0
17.1
9
UK Payout Annuity Asset Mix – Q1 2009
Total Assets £16.6 billion
10
Projected Annuity Asset & Liability Cash flows
Asset portfolio is constructed to provide as close as possible cash flow match to the expected liabilities
Combined Payout Asset & Liability Cash FlowsCombined Payout Asset and Liability Cash Flows
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
£ M
illi
on
Asset Cash Flow Liability Cash Flow
11
UK Payout Annuities
Market Overview
Mortality
Capital Market Solutions
12
Canada Life Mortality Experience
2004-2008
For a seller of annuities, a higher ratio is better than a lower ratio
The margin between actual experience and reserving assumption is approximately 10% for males and 15% for females.
Footnotes:1. All numbers show ratio of actual deaths to expected deaths, with expected deaths calculated as 100% of the current valuation tables i.e.
PNMA00 with medium cohort improvements (plus floor) for males and PNFA00 with 75% medium cohort improvements (plus floor) for females.
2. 2004 and 2005 is Canada Life business only, 2006-2008 includes Resolution and Equitable business.3. Valuation assumption is weighted average across all 3 blocks.
120%
97%
90%
77%
102%99%
93%
106%104%103%
75%
85%
95%
105%
115%
125%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mo
rta
lity
Ex
pe
rie
nc
eMales Females
Reserving Assumption
84%
Average Experience
100%
Reserving Assumption
90.6%
Average Experience
99%
13
Life Expectancies
Canada Life assumption for life expectancies is approximately 6 years higher than the latest published population mortality
– Approximately half of this allowance is for future improvements in mortality
– Other half reflects the lighter mortality for annuitants compared to the general population
17.2 17.9 18.2
20.619.420.0
23.3 23.122.2
21.1
0
6
12
18
24
30
UK 2006 Canada 2005 Japan 2004 UK 2006 Canada 2005
Lif
e E
xp
ec
tan
cy
ov
er
65
Ye
ars
Male Female
No Improvements With Improvements
CL UK Valuation/Pricing
26.0 - Female
23.3 - Male
14
Mortality by Cause of Death
Mortality rates have declined over the last 40 years driven by a decrease in deaths from circulatory diseases
These now form a much lower proportion of the total deaths
Deaths from other causes have been much more stable over that period.
Males FemalesMortality by major cause for males – England & Wales, 1911-2005
(Source: ONS)Mortality by major cause for females – England & Wales, 1911-2005
(Source: ONS)
Purple - Infectious diseasesGreen - Respiratory diseasesRed - CancersBlue - Circulatory diseases
Purple - Infectious diseasesGreen - Respiratory diseasesRed - CancersBlue - Circulatory diseases
15
UK Payout Annuities
Market Overview
Mortality
Capital Market Solutions
16
17
18
Questions