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Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

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Page 1: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

Arshil Jamal

SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management

Angela Jonkhans

Vice President, Capital Management

United Kingdom Payout Annuities

Page 2: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

2

UK Payout Annuities

Market Overview

Mortality

Capital Market Solutions

Page 3: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

3

U.K. Payout Annuities – Total Market Premium

11.6

9.6

7.97.57.47.26.3

5.74.9

4.23.22.9

2.2

11.0

0

5

10

15

Ne

w P

rem

ium

Bill

ion

s)

Market has grown by 9% per year on average from 2003 to 2008

9% CAGR

Source: MARS, 2008

Page 4: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

4

Canada Life U.K. Annuity Sales

1,007

812757

637579

418

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Sal

es (

£ M

illio

ns)

Canada Life sales have grown at 19% per annum on average since 2003

19% CAGR

Source: MARS, 2008

Page 5: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

5

UK New Sales – Annuities to all Distribution Channels - 2008

A 24%

F 5%

E 8%

H 4%

Other 18%

B 14%

C 14%

Canada Life 9%

G 4%

Canada Life is the fourth largest provider of new annuities in the UK

New Sales - 2008

Source: MARS, 2008

Page 6: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

6

UK Payout Annuity Market - 2008

Just under half of annuities are written by the company that managed / administered the pensions accumulation policy

Source: MARS, 2008

Page 7: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

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UK New Sales External Annuities to all Channels - 2008

A16%

B20%

C14%

I5%

J4%

Other3%

Canada Life17%

F11%

E10%

Excluding internal conventional rollover business, Canada Life is the second largest provider of new annuities in the UK

Source: MARS, 2008

Page 8: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

8

UK Payout Annuity Assets

1.6 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.9 4.6 5.0 5.6

2.32.1 1.9

1.7

4.3 4.1 4.0

5.8

0

5

10

15

20

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

As

se

ts (

£ B

illio

n)

Canada Life Resolution Equitable Standard Life

6.2

11.0 11.0

17.1

Page 9: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

9

UK Payout Annuity Asset Mix – Q1 2009

Total Assets £16.6 billion

Page 10: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

10

Projected Annuity Asset & Liability Cash flows

Asset portfolio is constructed to provide as close as possible cash flow match to the expected liabilities

Combined Payout Asset & Liability Cash FlowsCombined Payout Asset and Liability Cash Flows

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

£ M

illi

on

Asset Cash Flow Liability Cash Flow

Page 11: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

11

UK Payout Annuities

Market Overview

Mortality

Capital Market Solutions

Page 12: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

12

Canada Life Mortality Experience

2004-2008

For a seller of annuities, a higher ratio is better than a lower ratio

The margin between actual experience and reserving assumption is approximately 10% for males and 15% for females.

Footnotes:1. All numbers show ratio of actual deaths to expected deaths, with expected deaths calculated as 100% of the current valuation tables i.e.

PNMA00 with medium cohort improvements (plus floor) for males and PNFA00 with 75% medium cohort improvements (plus floor) for females.

2. 2004 and 2005 is Canada Life business only, 2006-2008 includes Resolution and Equitable business.3. Valuation assumption is weighted average across all 3 blocks.

120%

97%

90%

77%

102%99%

93%

106%104%103%

75%

85%

95%

105%

115%

125%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mo

rta

lity

Ex

pe

rie

nc

eMales Females

Reserving Assumption

84%

Average Experience

100%

Reserving Assumption

90.6%

Average Experience

99%

Page 13: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

13

Life Expectancies

Canada Life assumption for life expectancies is approximately 6 years higher than the latest published population mortality

– Approximately half of this allowance is for future improvements in mortality

– Other half reflects the lighter mortality for annuitants compared to the general population

17.2 17.9 18.2

20.619.420.0

23.3 23.122.2

21.1

0

6

12

18

24

30

UK 2006 Canada 2005 Japan 2004 UK 2006 Canada 2005

Lif

e E

xp

ec

tan

cy

ov

er

65

Ye

ars

Male Female

No Improvements With Improvements

CL UK Valuation/Pricing

26.0 - Female

23.3 - Male

Page 14: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

14

Mortality by Cause of Death

Mortality rates have declined over the last 40 years driven by a decrease in deaths from circulatory diseases

These now form a much lower proportion of the total deaths

Deaths from other causes have been much more stable over that period.

Males FemalesMortality by major cause for males – England & Wales, 1911-2005

(Source: ONS)Mortality by major cause for females – England & Wales, 1911-2005

(Source: ONS)

Purple - Infectious diseasesGreen - Respiratory diseasesRed - CancersBlue - Circulatory diseases

Purple - Infectious diseasesGreen - Respiratory diseasesRed - CancersBlue - Circulatory diseases

Page 15: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

15

UK Payout Annuities

Market Overview

Mortality

Capital Market Solutions

Page 16: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

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Page 17: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

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Page 18: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

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Page 19: Arshil Jamal SVP, Chief Actuary / Capital Management Angela Jonkhans Vice President, Capital Management United Kingdom Payout Annuities

Questions