Asia Carbon Black Feedstock

Overview

Vincent J. Guercio - CTC International

Asia Carbon Black Conference 2017

November 2017 – Chennai, India

I n t r o d u c t i o n

Heavy Aromatic Oils - HAO

Carbon Black Oils - CBO

Carbon Black Feedstock - CBFS CBF

------------------------------------------------

FCC Decant Oils - DO Slurry

Cracked Ethylene Tar - ET EBO ECR

Coal Tar Oils - CT

Anthracene oil (Creosote) - ATO

ATO / Soft Pitch Mixture - CBO Mix 2

T o p i c s

Carbon Black Capacity

Global CBFS Types

China CB & CBFS

U.S. CBO Exports

3

CB Capacity History by Region

China

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kilo

ton

s USA

Europe

NE Asia

4

CB Capacity History by Company

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kilo

ton

s

China Other

Sid Rich

Orion

Black Cat

Tokai

Birla

CSRC

ROW

Cabot

PCBL

5

OCI Omsk

China CB Capacity by Company

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Kilo

ton

s

China Other

Black Cat

Other Foreign CSRC, Birla, OCI, Orion, NSCC

Cabot

6

2018 Carbon Black Capacity

Cabot

Orion

CSRC

Birla

OC

I

Om

sk

Other China

Balance

World 16.9 million TPY)

CSRC

PCBL

OCI

Other China

Asia 11.1 million TPY

Birla

Cabot

Black

Cat

7

China

Northeast Asia

South Asia

USA

Other Americas

Europe

Rest of World

Demand

China

Northeast Asia

South Asia

USA

Other Americas

Europe

Rest of World

Supply

2016 World CBO (21.1 million Tons Total)

8

Coal Tar 11100

Ethylene Tar 2300

US Decant 4600

Local Decant 3300

2016 21.3 million Tons Total

Coal Tar 3550

Ethylene Tar 2500

US Decant 5720

Local Decant 2230

2004 14 million Tons Total

World CBFS Types Coal tar surpassed decant oil in 2011

9

Europe Union Russia/

Ukraine

China

Northeast Asia JKT

2016 World Coal Tar CBFS Use (11.1 million Tons Total)

10

China - Coal Tar CBFS

Neat Anthracene Oil

Soft Pitch + Anthracene Oil

Raw Coal Tar + Anthracene Oil

Naphthalene Depleted Coal Tar

11

China Coal Tar

Availability & Distillation

Moderate Steel Production Growth

High Aluminum Output

Anode Pitch Driving Distillation Lately

Pitch Modification Necessary

Pitch Now Priced Above Coal Tar

Weak Naphthalene Demand

Moderate CBFS Demand Growth

ATO & CBO Exports Discontinued

Coke Oven Environmental Issues 12

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17

US

$ / T

on

China - Daily Coal Tar Price

13

CBFS - Petroleum versus Coal Tar

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

J14 A J O J15 A J O J16 A J O J17 A J

US

$ / T

on

CBO Mix SAsia US CBO SAsia Brent Crude China CT 14

China Tar Distillation Products Price Ratios to Raw Coal Tar

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

J10 J J11 J J12 J J13 J J14 J J15 J J16 J J17 J

Pri

ce

Ra

tio

Naph/CT ATO/CT SP/CT Coal Tar 15

CB Imports

Domestic Supply

CB Exports

Unused Capacity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Kil

oto

ns

China CB Balance History

16

South Asia

North Asia

Europe

NAmer Mid-East

Other

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Kil

oto

ns

China CB Export History

17

Anthracene Oil

CBO Mix

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Kil

oto

ns

China CBFS Export History Types

18

North Asia

South Asia

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Kil

oto

ns

China CBFS Export History Regions

19

North Asia

South Asia

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Kil

oto

ns

CBFS Equivalent to Regions China CB + CBFS displacing US CBO

20

Domestic Demand

Export Demand

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Kilo

ton

s

US CBO Demand

21

South Asia

North Asia

Europe

Americas + Africa

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Kil

oto

ns

US CBO Export Destination

22

Gulf Coast

West Coast

Great Lakes

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Kilo

ton

s

US CBO Export Source

23

South Asia

North Asia

Europe

Americas +Africa

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Kil

oto

ns

Gulf Coast CBO Exports

24

धन्यवाद !

Thank you !

25