Asia Pacific - CBRE Vietnam · 2017-01-12 · Vietnam’s forecast is on the absolute rental level so the city’s average rent will be dragged down by the new completions in non-CBD

OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NEW NORMAL

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Asia Pacific

A S I A P A C I F I C

R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


MACROECONOMICS

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


9

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

%

Asia United States Western Europe

Source: Oxford Economics, January 2017.

G R O W T H H A S N E V E R B E E N S O S T A T I C R E A L G D P G R O W T H R A T E

Forecast

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


10

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Ja

n-9

7

Ja

n-9

8

Ja

n-9

9

Ja

n-0

0

Ja

n-0

1

Ja

n-0

2

Ja

n-0

3

Jan-0

4

Jan-0

5

Ja

n-0

6

Ja

n-0

7

Ja

n-0

8

Ja

n-0

9

Ja

n-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Ja

n-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

% Fed Funds Target Rate - December estimation

September estimation

Long-term target (year-end)

I N T E R E ST R A T E H I K E E XP E C T A T I O N S R E V I S E D U P W A R D M E D I A N F E D R A T E E X P E C T A T I O N A M O N G F O M C P A R T I C I P A N T S

Source: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting , CBRE Research, December 2016.

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


11

B U T I N T E R E ST R A T E S I N A S I A P A C I F I C R E M A I N L O W P O L I C Y R AT E S I N K E Y M A R K E T S

6.5 6.5 6.3

4.4 3.0

1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3

-0.1

1.3 1.1

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Vie

tnam

Indo

ne

sia

India

Ch

ina

Ma

laysia

Ne

w Z

ea

land

Au

str

alia

Tha

iland

Taiw

an

So

uth

Ko

rea

Ja

pa

n

Sin

ga

po

re

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

%

Source: Various Central Banks, Monetary Authorities,

CBRE Research, December 2016.

Note on policy rates: Australia – Cash rate; China – 1-yr lending

rate; Taiwan – Discount rate; India – Repo rate; Indonesia – BI

rate; South Korea – Base rate; Thailand – 1-day repo rate; New

Zealand – Official cash rate; Japan – Overnight call rate; Hong

Kong – 3M HIBOR; Singapore – 3M SIBOR; Vietnam –

Refinancing rate; Malaysia – Overnight rate

Ten Year High

2017F

Ten Year Low

Possible rate

hike

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


OFFICE

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


13

UP FLAT DOWN

2017 LEASING MARKETS MOMENTUM

0

10

20

30

40

50

602001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016F

2017F

Ne

t a

bso

rptio

n -

mill

ion s

q. ft

. (N

FA

)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual New Supply

-5% to -

10%

Source: CBRE Research, January 2017.

O F F I C E L E A S I N G V O L U M E W I L L M O D E R A T E I N 2 0 1 7 I N D I A R E M A I N S H E A L T H Y B U T C H I N A S E T T O W E A K E N

Cynthia to

update

2017 NET ABSORPTION

OUTLOOK

2017 NET ABSORPTION

OUTLOOK

DOWN

FLAT

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


14

S U P P L Y R E M A I N S A M A J O R C H A L L E N G E

0

5

10

15

20

25

30S

han

gh

ai

Ne

w D

elh

i

Sh

en

zhe

n

Gu

an

gzh

ou

Tokyo

Mu

mb

ai

Ja

kart

a

Be

ijin

g

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

Se

ou

l

Ma

nila

Ma

ka

ti

Sin

ga

po

re

Hanoi

Taip

ei

Ho

Cho

Min

h C

ity

Au

ckla

nd

Ba

ng

alo

re

Ba

ng

kok

Me

lbou

rne

Syd

ne

y

Pe

rth

Brisbane

mill

ion s

q. ft

. (N

FA

)

Net absorption (2017-2019 forecast) New supply (2017-2019 forecast)

Remarks: Net absorption and new supply figures covered the grade

A markets with the exception of the Australian markets which

covered the all-grades markets; net supply is used for the Pacific

markets; gross absorption is used for the Indian markets.


Demand > New Supply New Supply > Demand

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


15


Tenant - Driven Landlord – Driven

Shanghai

Shenzhen

Brisbane

Guangzhou

Ho Chi Minh City

Mumbai

Beijing

Hong Kong

New Delhi

Auckland

Bangkok

Taipei

Tokyo

Melbourne

Sydney

Bangalore

Hanoi

Perth

Seoul

Singapore

M O S T M A R K E T S W I L L F A V O U R T E N A N T S I N 2 0 1 7 O F F I C E R E N T A L C Y C L E – Q 4 2 0 1 6

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


16

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30S

yd

ne

y

Ba

ng

alo

re

Me

lbou

rne

Ba

ng

kok

Gu

an

gzh

ou

Gu

rga

on

Au

ckla

nd

Tokyo

Brisb

an

e

Mu

mb

ai

Ha

no

i

Ho

Chi M

inh C

ity

Taip

ei

De

lhi

Se

ou

l

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

Sh

an

gh

ai

Sh

en

zhe

n

Pe

rth

Be

ijin

g

Ja

kart

a

Sin

ga

po

re

Gra

de A

Eff

ecti

ve

Re

nta

l G

row

th (

%) 2016F 2017F

W E A K E R R E N T A L G R O W T H I S E XP E C T E D


Bottoming

Out

Peaking

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


RETAIL

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


18


S T R O N G F O C U S O N P O R T F O L I O O P T I M I S AT I O N

TRADITIONAL REFINED STRATEGY

FLAGSHIP STORE + SATELLITE STORES

Flagship store to focus on

in-store experience

and brand promotion

Satellite stores to

focus on efficiency

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


19

Source: CBRE Research, December 2016.

N E W S U P P L Y P I P E L I N E T O F A L L F R O M 2 0 1 6 ’ S P E A K P R E - L E A S I N G A C T I V I T Y R E M A I N S S L O W

Pre-leasing now starts at least

19 MONTHS ahead of project completion

50% of new

malls delayed their completion date by more than six

months due to pre-leasing issues

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2014 2015 2016F 2017F

Re

tail

De

ve

lop

me

nt

Pip

eli

ne

(mil

lio

n s

q. ft

.)

China Tier 1 Cities Rest of Asia Pacific

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


20

Note: *Prime rent is used in Tokyo, rents of Shopping centres are used in China and Singapore


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Au

ckla

nd

Syd

ne

y

Me

lbou

rne

Gu

an

gzh

ou

Be

ijin

g

Taip

ei

Sh

an

gh

ai

Brisb

an

e

Ho

Chi M

inh C

ity

Ha

no

i

Sh

en

zhe

n

Tokyo

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

Sin

ga

po

re

Re

tail

re

nta

l g

row

th (

%)

2016F 2017F

T H E P A C E O F R E N T A L G R O W T H W I L L B E M U T E D

Vietnam’s forecast is on the

absolute rental level so the city’s

average rent will be dragged

down by the new completions in

non-CBD areas.

If we stripped them out, the

rental movement is around +2%

on a “like-to-like” basis.

Close to

bottom Peaking

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


LOGISTICS

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


22

F O C U S O N P O R T F O L I O O P T I M I Z AT I O N

INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS PER 10,000 PERSONS EMPLOYED IN

MANUFACTURING

Update to 2016 year-end figures (2015 is the

latest data available

Add China, India, any countries in SE Asia? China

added

Line for global average? DONE (for 2015)

Historical time series? DONE (in aggregate)

What is the definition of industrial robots

Industrial Robot Definition:

Industrial robot as defined by ISO 8373: An automatically controlled, reprogrammable, multipurpose manipulator programmable in three or more axes, which may be either fixed in place or mobile for use in industrial automation applications.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

ESTIMATED ANNUAL SUPPLY OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS

(THOUSANDS)

Source: World Robotics, 2016.

Note: Industrial robot as defined by ISO 8373

A U T O M AT I O N S E T T O C H A N G E T H E L O G I S T I C S L A N D S C A P E P O R T F O L I O O P T I M I S A T I O N K E Y A S P R O D U C T I O N C Y C L E S T I G H T E N

Source: International Federation of Robots, September 2016.

High

Low

Le

ve

l o

f a

uto

matio

n

0

100

200

300

400

500

600S

outh

Ko

rea

Sin

ga

po

re

Ja

pa

n

Ge

rma

ny

Sw

ede

n

Taiw

an

De

nm

ark

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Be

lgiu

m

Ita

ly

Ch

ina

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Gre

ate

r S

eou

l

Gre

ate

r T

okyo

Gre

ate

r O

sa

ka

Sh

an

gh

ai

Syd

ne

y

Sin

gapore

Me

lbou

rne

Brisb

an

e

Au

ckla

nd

Be

ijin

g

Pe

rth

Sh

en

zhe

n

Gu

an

gzh

ou

Hong K

ong

Lo

gis

tic

s D

eve

lop

me

nt

Pip

eli

ne (

Mil

lio

n

sq

. ft

.)

2017F 2018FSource: CBRE Research, December 2016.

Definition of new supply for Korea? Grade A

Logistics

Remove annual historical average? Removed

Geographical coverage? Citywide

S U P P L Y L E V E L S T O B E C O M E M O R E B A L A N C E D

Oversupply Risk Undersupply Risk

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


24

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

Sh

en

zhe

n

Sh

an

gh

ai

Gu

an

gzh

ou

Auckla

nd

Syd

ne

y

Brisb

an

e

Be

ijin

g

Me

lbou

rne

To

kyo

Ba

y A

rea

Sin

ga

po

re

Pe

rth

Gre

ate

r O

sa

ka

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

Lo

gis

tic

s r

en

tal g

row

th

2016F 2017F

C H I N A S T I L L L E A D S I N R E N T A L G R O W T H P R O S P E C T S A U S T R A L I A I S R E C O V E R I N G


Contraction Peaked

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


CAPITAL MARKETS

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


26

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%P

ert

h

Ha

no

i

Brisb

an

e

Tokyo

Au

ckla

nd

Ho

Chi M

inh C

ity

Ba

ng

kok

Me

lbou

rne

Se

ou

l

Syd

ne

y

Mu

mb

ai

Ku

ala

Lum

pur

Ta

ipe

i

Be

ijin

g

Sh

an

gh

ai

New

Delh

i

Gu

an

gzh

ou

Ba

ng

alo

re

Sin

ga

po

re

Sh

en

zhe

n

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

Off

ice Y

ield

Sp

read

Ten Year High

2017F

Ten Year Low

Yield spread narrowed to

100 bps or below


Y I E L D S P R E A D C O N T I N U E S A T L O W L E V E L S O F F I C E Y I E L D V S 1 0 - Y E A R G O V E R N M E N T B O N D Y I E L D

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


27

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016F

2017F

Nu

mb

er

of

tra

nsa

cti

on

s

US

$ b

illi

on

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Forecast Number of transactions

UP FLAT DOWN

2017 INVESTMENT VOLUME

I N V E S T ME NT T U R N O V E R T O M O D E R A T E I N 2 0 1 7 T O TA L I N V E S T M E N T V O L U M E I N A S I A PA C I F I C

Remarks: Transactions include deals above US$10 million in the

Office, Retail, Mixed, Industrial, Hotel and other commercial sectors.

Residential and development site are excluded.

Source: CBRE Research, RCA, December 2016.

-5%

OCCUPIERS • Plan ahead

• Be flexible

• Focus on efficiency

INVESTORS • Focus on NOI growth

• Unlock hidden value

• Target niche sectors

INVESTMENT DESTINATION

CYCLICAL

• Australia office, still

• China logistics, if available

• Japan regional cities, if you can borrow

• Vietnam office, build-to-core

COUNTER-CYCLICAL

• Singapore office, if not too late

• Hong Kong retail, if you are patient enough

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


31

H A V E Y O U R S A Y I N O U R G L O B A L S U R V E Y

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Occupier

Survey

Investor

In tent ions

Survey

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


32

This presentation has been prepared in good faith based on CBRE’s current views of the commercial real-estate market.

Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation, they are subject to significant

uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond CBRE’s control. In addition, many of CBRE’s views are

opinion and/or projections based on CBRE’s subjective analyses of current market circumstances. Other firms may have

different opinions, projections and analyses, and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBRE’s current views

to later be incorrect. CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions, projections, analyses or market

circumstances later change.

Nothing in this presentation should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBRE’s securities or of the

performance of any other company’s securities. You should not purchase or sell securities – of CBRE or any other

company – based on the views herein. CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information

herein, and by viewing this presentation, you waive all claims against CBRE and the presenter as well as against CBRE’s

affiliates, officers, directors, employees, agents, advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy, completeness,

adequacy or your use of the information herein.

D I S C L A I M E R S A N D W A I V E R S

Thank You

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


OPPORTUNITIES IN THE NEW NORMAL

• Cover page V.8 with customizable background




VIETNAM

A S I A P A C I F I C


2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


35

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


36

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


1. VIETNAM ECONOMY

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


37

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

Re

al

GD

P G

row

th R

ate

(%

)

Source: GSO, Oxford Economics 2016.

2 0 1 6 G D P G R O W T H L O W E R T H A N E X P E C T E D

6.21%

Forecast

S T I L L AM O N G R E G I O N ’ S S T R O N G E S T

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


38

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Inte

rest

ra

te (

%)

Average CPI (y-o-y) Lending rate Deposit rate

Average CPI: 2.7% y-o-y Basic Inflation: 1.83% y-o-y

Source: Macrobond, CBRE Research Q2 2016

INFLATION PICKS UP WHILE INTEREST RATES STAYED LOW

Source: GSO, CBRE Vietnam.

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


39

Source: HNC, Gold.org, SJC, SBV.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

2014 2015 2016

Ind

ex

Government Bond VN-Index Local Gold USD/VND Crude Oil

M A J O R A S S E T C L A S S E S

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


40

7,036

2,590

2,419

1,875

1,860

South Korea

Japan

Singapore

China

Taiwan

F D I R E A C H E D 8 - Y E A R H I G H Vietnam Registered FDI in 2016: US$24.4 billion

24

-

20

40

60

802

00

7

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Reg

iste

red

FD

I (U

S$

Bil

lio

ns)

Real estate accounts for 7% of registered FDI, ranks 2nd among sectors

Top FDI Investors, US$ million, 2016

1 2 3

Major Real Estate Deals, 2016

US$315m Industrial Park - Quang Ninh

US$309m Township - Dong Nai

US$300m 21-storey building - Hanoi

Source: Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment.

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


41

Under construction

Under planning 2 3

1

4 5 6

INFRASTRUCTURE & PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

D E M A N D F O R T R A N S I T O R I E N T E D D E V E L O P M E N T S

Retail

Office

Amenities

P Parking

A GROWING CONCERN AS THE FIRST METRO LINE IS CLOSE TO COMPLETION

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


42

INFRASTRUCTURE & PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

Under Construction Metro Line

Under Planning Metro Line

D E M A N D F O R T R A N S I T O R I E N T E D D E V E L O P M E N T S

Retail

Office

Amenities

P Parking

2

3

A GROWING CONCERN AS THE FIRST METRO LINE IS CLOSE TO COMPLETION

THE EIGHT METRO LINES

OF HANOI

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


43

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


2. CONDOMINIUM

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


44

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

HANOI - NEW LAUNCH BY YEAR HCMC - NEW LAUNCH BY YEAR

N E W L A U N C H D E C R E A S E Y - O - Y B U T H I G H E R O N 1 0 - Y R A V E R A G E

37,419 units 10% y-o-y

HCMC - 2016 30,028 units 13% y-o-y

HANOI - 2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

No

. of

un

it

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

No

. of

un

it


2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


45

36% 40%

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016. Luxury: >US$3,500 per sm

High-end: US$1,500 to US$3,500 per sm Mid-end: US$800 to $1,500 per sm

Affordable: US$800 per sm

51%

42% 56%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2015 2016


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2015 2016


36% 40% 47%

HANOI - NEW LAUNCH BREAKDOWN HCMC - NEW LAUNCH BREAKDOWN

M I D - E N D S E G M E N T E X P A N D I N G E AS I N G H I G H - E N D O V E R S U P P LY F E AR

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


46

H C M C : E A S T A N D S O U T H

North 7%

East 41%

West 11% Central

8%

South 34%

H A N O I : W E S T A N D S O U T H W E S T

West 37%

South West 24%

South 12%

East 10%

North 4%

Midtown 7%

CBD 1%

CBD fringe 6%

NEW LAUNCH REMAINS STRONG IN DECENTRALIZED DISTRICTS

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016.

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


47


HANOI - NEW LAUNCH FORECAST HCMC - NEW LAUNCH FORECAST

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

New

lau

nch

su

pp

ly (

un

its)


L O W E R S E G M E N T S I N T H E L I M E L I G H T F O R T H E N E XT 3 Y E A R S

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

New

lau

nch

su

pp

ly (

un

its)


Forecast Forecast

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


48

NEW SALES 2016

21,188 units

2% y-o-y

HANOI

35,008 units

4% y-o-y

HCMC

S A L E S D E C R E A S E Y - O - Y B U T I S C AT C H I N G U P FAS T W I T H N E W L AU N C H

2016: 69% TOTAL SOLD UNITS (*) NEW LAUNCH

HANOI

2015: 64%

2016: 94% HCMC

2015: 88% (%)

(*) Total sold units include both units sold at newly-launched projects in the period and at previously-launched projects


2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


49


HANOI – SOLD UNITS BY YEAR HCMC - SOLD UNITS BY YEAR

S A L E S M O M E N T U M R E M A I N S U P B E A T

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F2018F2019F

No

. o

f so

ld u

nit

s


Forecast

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

No

. o

f so

ld u

nit

s


Forecast

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


50

~68.6% of new launches sold in 2016

No. of Project

Sales rate (%)

1

44%

9

50%

7

53%

14

62%

6

48%

3

72%

4

48%

4

69%

3

32%

9

57%

3

42%

5

53%

11

70%

3

65%

2

42%

9

73%

1

88%

H C M C : H I G H S A L E S R A T E S I N D I S T R I C T 2 , 9 A N D N H A B E Implication for districts only, not exact project location

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


51

Implication for districts only, not exact project location

No. of Projects Sales rate (%)

5 62%

2 82%

5 69%

2 62%

5 86%

3 76%

13 75%

13 65%

8 48%

7 53%

~64% of new launch in 2016 sold

H I G H S A L E S R A T E S I N B A D I N H , H A I B A T R U N G D I S T R I CT S

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


52

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Per

cen

tag

e ch

ang

e (%

)


0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019FPer

cen

tag

e ch

ang

e (%

)

HANOI - PRIMARY PRICE FORECAST

HCMC - PRIMARY PRICE FORECAST

P R I M A R Y P R I C I N G U P A C R O S S S E G M E N T S

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016. Note: (1) Base year is 2005 (2) No luxury projects in Hanoi until 2011.

Forecast

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


53

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


3. OFFICE

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


54

Hanoi

Rents

2.9% y-o-y 0.6%

y-o-y

3.3 ppts y-o-y

5.6 ppts y-o-y

Vacancy rate (%)

Grade A Grade B

HCMC

Rents

Vacancy rate (%)

Grade A Grade B

1.9% y-o-y

6.2% y-o-y

1.6 ppts y-o-y

V A C A N C Y T R E N D S D I F F E R

Rent: US$/sm/month, excludes VAT and Service charge Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016.

3.3 ppts y-o-y

US$36 US$21 US$28 US$18

8.0% 2.8% 15.8% 16.5%

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


55

+14% y-o-y

415,355 sm

+5% y-o-y

774,792 sm

Grade A: Grade B:

0

300,000

600,000

900,000

1,200,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

To

tal

Su

pp

ly (

NL

A, s

m)

Grade A Grade B

HANOI - TOTAL SUPPLY HCMC - TOTAL SUPPLY

+7.7% y-o-y

758,280 sm

+1.5% y-o-y

321,557 sm

Grade A: Grade B:

S U P P L Y G R O W T H F A S T E R I N H A N O I


0

300,000

600,000

900,000

1,200,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

To

tal

Su

pp

ly (

NL

A, s

m)

Grade A Grade B

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


56

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,0002

00

9

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

New

Su

pp

ly (

NL

A, s

m)

Grade A Grade B

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

New

Su

pp

ly (

sm, N

LA

)

Grade A Grade B

HANOI – NEW SUPPLY FORECAST HCMC - NEW SUPPLY FORECAST

… B U T H C M C S T A R T E D T O C A T C H U P

No

New

Su

pp

ly

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2016.

Forecast Forecast

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


57

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Net

ab

sorp

tio

n

(NL

A, s

m)

Net Absorption - Grade A Net Absorption - Grade B

N E T A B S O R P T I O N L A G S B E H I N D 2 0 1 5


HANOI – Net Absorption

HCMC – Net Absorption

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net

Ab

sorp

tio

n

(NL

A, s

m)

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


58

-2.9% y-o-y

US$ 28.5

+0.6% y-o-y

US$ 17.8

Grade A: Grade B:

HANOI - ASKING RENTS HCMC - ASKING RENTS

US$21.0

+6.2% y-o-y

US$36.6

Grade A: Grade B:

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ask

ing

ren

ts (

US

$ p

sm p

m)

Grade A Grade B

+1.9% y-o-y

M O D E R A T E R E N T A L G R O W T H I N H C M C W H I L E R AT E S AR E S TAB I L I Z I N G I N H AN O I


0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Ask

ing

ren

ts (

US

$ p

sm p

m)

Grade A Grade B

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


59

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

10

20

30

40

50

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

Va

can

cy R

ate

(%

)

Re

nte

(U

S$

psm

pm

)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

10

20

30

40

50

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

F

20

18

F

20

19

F

Va

can

cy r

ate

s (%

)

Re

nts

(U

S$

psm

pm

)

HANOI – PERFORMANCE FORECAST HCMC – PERFORMANCE FORECAST

S T I L L L A R G E L Y A T A L E O F T W O C I T I E S L I M I T E D R E N TAL G R O W T H P R O S P E C T S


Forecast Forecast

Grade A – Rents Grade B – Rents

Grade A – Vacancy Grade B – Vacancy The presented rents are rents of Q4 of each respected year.

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


60

Decentralization

Limited space in CBD: • Rental growth for

CBD buildings • Certain winners in

Midtown and West

Flight to Quality

• Big occupiers to relocate and expand to higher quality buildings

Diversified Demand

• High demand from traditional sectors

• Start-ups boom: Growth of Co-working space

Supply Growth

• New supply coming from CBD and Non-CBD area to meet strong market demand

Hanoi HCMC Hanoi & HCMC

O P P O R T U N I T I E S A B O U N D F O R T H E M A R K E T

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


61

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


4. RETAIL

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


62

HCMC

HANOI

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Su

pp

ly

(NL

A, s

m)

RETAIL SUPPLY GROWTH ACCELERATING IN BOTH C IT IES

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Su

pp

ly

(NL

A, s

m)

Forecast


2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


63

26,000 sm NLA Expected 2018

35,000 sm GFA Expected 2020

59,000 sm NLA Expected 2017



53,000 sm GFA Opened Q1 2016


R O B U S T N E W S U P P L Y I N AN D O U T O F H C M C C B D

2017-2020 Completion (E)

2016 Opening




2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


64

BA DINH

TAY HO

HOAN KIEM

DONG DA

HAI BA TRUNG

LONG BIEN

HOANG MAI

CAU GIAY TU LIEM

DONG ANH

HOAI DUC

HA DONG THANH TRI

GIA LAM

THANH XUAN

WEST LAKE








R E T AI L S U P P L Y I S F U R T H E R D E C E N T R AL I Z E D I N H AN O I

2017-2019 Completion (E)

2016 Opening 18,900 sm GFA Expected 2017


2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


65

P L AC E M AK I N G M AD E I T S W AY T O V I E T N AM

R E TA I L E R S D E M A N D


PLACEMAKING IS ABOUT CREATING AN

ENVIRONMENT THAT PEOPLE WANT

TO VISIT AND RETURN TO

T R AD I T I O N A L VAL U E S W I T H A C R E AT I V E T O U C H

ASIA PACIFIC

VIETNAM

Luxury

F&B Fast Fashion Sport Entertainment

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


66

9%

36% 37%

19%

8%

22%

12%

5%

19% 19%

29%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

HongKong

India Indonesia Malaysia NewZealand

Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Other Asia-Pacific

CA

GR

20

15

-20

20

E-c

om

mer

ce R

even

ue

(US

D b

illi

on

)

2015 E-commerce Revenue CAGR 2015-2020

C H AN G I N G D I G I T AL L AN D S C AP E I N V I E T N AM E - C O M M E R C E : F U T U R E T R E N D ?

Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, 2016

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


67

(US$ per NLA sm on ground and first floor, excl. tax and service charge)

0

30

60

90

120

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ask

ing

Ren

t (U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

CBD Non-CBD

CBD

2% y-o-y

-5.9% y-o-y

Non-CBD

R E N T AL G R O W T H L I M I T E D T O C B D M AL L S

0

30

60

90

120

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ask

ing

Ren

t (U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

CBD Non-CBD

CBD

15.1% y-o-y

-4.4% y-o-y

Non-CBD


HCMC HANOI

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


68

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Va

can

cy R

ate

(%

)

Ren

t (U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

HANOI

R E N T AL R AT E S T O S T AB I L I Z E AM I D S T F U R T H E R S U P P L Y

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

20

40

60

80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Va

can

cy R

ate

(%

)

Ren

t (U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

Rent Vacancy

HCMC


Forecast

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


69

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


5. LOGISTICS

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


70

Electronics Automobile & Motorcycle

E-commerce

Local Foreigner

RISING DEMAND FROM E-COMMERCE AND HI-TECH SECTORS

M O R E Q U AL I T Y S U P P LY


2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


71

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

0

40

80

120

160

200

2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Va

can

cy R

ate

NF

A (

'00

0 s

qm

)

New Supply - South New Supply - NorthVacancy Rate - South Vacancy Rate - North

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

0

40

80

120

160

200

2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

Va

can

cy R

ate

NF

A (

'00

0 s

qm

)

New Supply - South New Supply - NorthVacancy Rate - South Vacancy Rate - North

Warehouse - New supply and vacancy rate Ready-built-factory - New supply and vacancy rate

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016. Southern area: HCMC, Long An, Binh Duong, Dong Nai Northern area: Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Hung Yen

M O R E Q U AL I T Y S U P P LY

M O V I N G U P T H E V AL U E C H AI N

FTAs alternative for TPP.

Supply: more quality

supply from both

foreigner and local

developers.

Demand: more demand

from electronics, e-

commerce and FMCG

sectors.

Rents: large number of

supply in 2017 lead to

slower growth in rents

Forecast Forecast

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


72

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

0

1

2

3

4

5

2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

% G

row

th Y

-o-Y

Ren

tal

rate

(U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

Rents - South Rents - North

Rental Growth - South Rental Growth - North

Warehouse - rental rate Ready-built-factory - rental rate

M O D E S T R E N T AL G R O W T H P R O S P E C T S

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

0

1

2

3

4

5

2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F

% G

row

th Y

-o-Y

Ren

tal

rate

(U

S$

/sm

/mo

nth

)

Rents -South Rents - North

Rental Growth - South Rental Growth - North

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016. Southern area: HCMC, Long An, Binh Duong, Dong Nai Northern area: Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Hung Yen

Forecast Forecast

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


73

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


74

City Venue Date

Hanoi, Vietnam Lotte Hotel Hanoi January 10

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Park Hyatt Saigon January 12

Shenzhen, China Langham January 13

Beijing, China China World Hotel January 17

Shanghai, China Four Seasons January 18

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia TPC Kuala Lumpur January 20

Singapore Arts House January 24

Seoul, South Korea Four Seasons February 14

Sydney, Australia Sydney Conservatorium of Music February 22

Brisbane, Australia To be announced March 7

Melbourne, Australia Park Hyatt Melbourne March 9

Auckland, New Zealand To be announced March 14

Hong Kong To be announced April 5

New Delhi, India To be announced April 19

Adelaide, Australia To be announced May 9

Perth, Australia To be announced May 11

Tokyo To be announced June 2

2 0 1 7 R O A D S H O W S AV E T H E D AT E

ASIA PACIFIC

REGIONAL REPORT

JANUARY 24

VIETNAM NATIONAL

REPORT

MID-FEBRUARY

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


75

This presentation has been prepared in good faith based on CBRE’s current views of the commercial real-estate market.

Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation, they are subject to significant

uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond CBRE’s control. In addition, many of CBRE’s views are

opinion and/or projections based on CBRE’s subjective analyses of current market circumstances. Other firms may have

different opinions, projections and analyses, and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBRE’s current views

to later be incorrect. CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions, projections, analyses or market

circumstances later change.

Nothing in this presentation should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBRE’s securities or of the

performance of any other company’s securities. You should not purchase or sell securities – of CBRE or any other

company – based on the views herein. CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information

herein, and by viewing this presentation, you waive all claims against CBRE and the presenter as well as against CBRE’s

affiliates, officers, directors, employees, agents, advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy, completeness,

adequacy or your use of the information herein.

D I S C L A I M E R S A N D W A I V E R S

Thank You

2 0 1 7 A S I A P A C I F I C


Documents

Asia Pacific - CBRE Vietnam · 2017-01-12 · Vietnam’s forecast is on the absolute rental level so the city’s average rent will be dragged down by the new completions in non-CBD