Asia-Pacific Disaster Report

Manzul Hazarika, Ph.D.

Sahdev Singh, Ph.D.

Chapter 1 : Hazard, Vulnerability and Risks - Trends and Analysis

Contents

1.0) Introduction1.1) Trends and Analysis in the Asia-Pacific South Asia South-East Asia East Asia Pacific (Pacific Islands, Australia and New Zealand) Central & West Asia1.2) Climate Change Impacts1.3) Impact of Climate Change and Variability1.4) Neglected Disasters1.5) Risk Assessment Initiatives in the Region

1.0 Introduction

• Figures show a comparison of number of disasters and causalities among the continents from 1900 to 2008.

• Asia ranks in the top both in terms of number of disasters and causalities

Disaster Statistics for Asia-Pacific : 1980-2009

Number of Events Number of Causalities (x 1,000)

Number of Affected People (x 1,000,000) Economic Loss (x 1,000,000)

Top 10 Countries in the Asia-Pacific : 1980-2009

Country Events China 533India 395Philippines 310Indonesia 293Bangladesh 219Japan 149Australia 144Viet Nam 140Islamic Republic of Iran 138Russian Federation 130

Country KilledBangladesh 191,344Indonesia 189,615China 147,204India 139,393Myanmar 139,071Pakistan 84,561Iran 77,984Sri Lanka 36,501Philippines 31,060Turkey 21,838

Country Loss(US$1000)China 230,947,214Japan 206,553,800India 45,184,830Turkey 24,463,300DPR Korea 23,641,910Australia 21,955,981Iran 21,374,696Indonesia 21,219,450Bangladesh 16,802,500Republic of Korea 14,869,523

Country Affected China 2,500,735,703India 1,506,794,740Bangladesh 317,454,534Philippines 98,701,710Viet Nam 67,700,028Thailand 53,142,429Iran 42,657,823Pakistan 39,116,514Indonesia 18,195,948Cambodia 16,501,552

Disaster Types and No. of Events: 1980-2009

Disaster Types and Casualties: 1980-2009

Disaster Types and People Affected : 1980-2009

Disaster Types and Economic Loss : 1980-2009

1.1 Trends and Analysis in the Asia-Pacific (1980-2009)

No. of Disaster Events and Killed

Trends and Analysis in the Asia-Pacific (1980-2009)

No. of Disaster Events and Damage

South Asia

Trends of Disaster Events and Killed : South Asia (1980-2009)

South Asia

Trends of Disaster Events and Damage: South Asia (1980-2009)

South-East Asia

Trends of Disaster Events and Killed : South-East Asia (1980-2009)

South-East Asia

Trends of Disaster Events and Damage: South-East Asia (1980-2009)

East Asia

Trends of Disaster Events and Killed : East Asia (1980-2009)

East Asia

Trends of Disaster Events and Damage: East Asia (1980-2009)

Pacific

Trends of Disaster Events and Killed : Pacific (1980-2009)

Pacific

Trends of Disaster Events and Damage: Pacific (1980-2009)

Central and West Asia

Trends of Disaster Events and Killed : Central and West Asia (1980-2009)

Central and West Asia

Trends of Disaster Events and Damage: Central and West Asia (1980-2009)

1.2 Climate Change Impacts

1.2.1 GLOF – Case Studies by ICIMOD and recent trends

1.2.2 Drought – Chinese Papers and ESCAP’s Regional Report

1.2.3 Impact of Sea Level Rise in SIDS – SOPAC Documents

1.2.4 Impact of Sea Level Rise on Mega Delta Regions - UNU

1.2.5 Trend of Tropical Cyclones – Typhoon Committee Report

1.2.6 More Frequent Extremely Heavy Rainfall Events – JMA

A glacier Retreat Image from the ICIMOD, Nepal

Rainfall Freq. Analysis from JMA, Japan

1.3.1 ENSO and Extreme Climate in the Region – IPCC

1.3.2 ENSO, Climate Change and Forest Fire – GFMC

1.3 Climate Change Impacts

1.4.1 Impacts of small but more frequent disasters [SAARC raw data 2008 and 2009, same as EM-DAT]

1.4.2 Disasters in Small Countries such as SIDS [SOPAC Documents]

1.4.3 Tornadoes in Bangladesh [Raw Data and waiting for Documents from International Group to Reduce Wind-related Disaster Risk/International Association of Wind Engineering]

1.4 Neglected Disasters

1.5 Risk Assessment Initiatives

1.5.1 Introduction of various risk assessment initiatives in the region [ADPC, IDRC] Waiting for

1.5.2 Disaster Index and Indicators (water-related ones for example) - Available GermanWatch Briefing Paper and World Bank Report on Methodologies

1.5.2.1 Water Insecurity Index [EDD, ESCAP] Waiting for

1.5.2.2 Flood Vulnerability Index [The ICHARM report Global Trends in Water-Related Disasters does not mention the index.]

1.6 Risk Assessment Initiatives

1.6 Climate Change Adaptation Progress in the Region- Based on survey to be conducted in February/early March. The

outcomes will be ready by end of March 2010

1.6.1 Analysis of Country Survey

1.6.2 Case Studies

1.7 Conclusions and Recommendations

After completion of sections 1.1 to 1.6

1.7.1 Conclusions

1.7.2 Recommendations

(Examples)– Recommend to develop a regional network of countries with

large delta

– Promote to develop an official disaster database in the region

– Recommend to develop a regional-scale climate change scenario

Thank You

Recent Catastrophic Disasters

Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar) - May 2 and 3, 2008Category: 4 (Saffir-Simpson scale)People killed: 84,530 deaths and 53,836 missingPeople affected: 2.4 millionEconomic Losses: 4 billion US$

Sichuan Earthquake (China) - 12 May 2008Magnitude: 7.9 (Richter scale)People killed: 68,858 deaths and 8,618 missingPeople affected: 45.6 millionEconomic Losses: 85 billion US$

Asian Tsunami - 26 December, 2004Magnitude: 9.3 (Richter scale)People killed: 184,167 And 45,752 missingPeople affected: ?? millionEconomic Losses: ?? billion US$