Asia Regional Summary - Max Security · alochistan’s provincial capital city of Quetta, leaving at least 14 dead and several others wounded. The attack, which was reportedly claimed

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Asia Regional Summary

February 2016

MAX Security Solutions Ltd. Office: +44 20 3540 0434 www.max-security.com

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Executive Summary HIGH RISK

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The year 2016 began with a number of important political and security developments in

Asia. First and foremost, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for a militant attack in

downtown Jakarta, Indonesia on January 14. The attack, which left four people dead

excluding the attackers, drastically intensified concerns throughout Southeast Asia towards

IS’ influence and potential attacks in major metropolitan areas. For instance, Malaysia has

since January 14 carried out a number of arrests, including an alleged suicide attacker in

Kuala Lumpur. In the Philippines, a number of small militant groups in the far south allegedly

consolidated their forces and further pledged allegiance to IS in a released video. Though

the threat of their attacks in Manila remains latent, we continue to assess that the

Philippines government will be largely successful in containing this threat. The presence of

extremist elements in Singapore, along with the latent threat of attacks, was further

highlighted in the deportation of over two dozen Bangladeshis accused of connections to

Islamist militancy.

In East Asia, tensions between China and Japan over the East China Sea once again

resurfaced in January, whilst Beijing continues with measures to undermine insurgent

activity in Xinjiang Province. Tensions with Beijing were omnipresent among activists in

Hong Kong throughout the month, as large-scale protests were held to demand answers

regarding the disappearances of several Hong Kongers linked to a controversial publishing

company. Meanwhile, tensions again rose on the Korean Peninsula in January, after North

Korea claimed to have conducted its first hydrogen bomb nuclear test. The US has since

taken several symbolic military steps to reassure Seoul of its commitment to defend South

Korea. Furthermore, in Taiwan, the opposition won an expected but decisive victory in

national elections. While the country’s status-quo with Beijing is likely to remain more or

less stable in the coming weeks, the new DPP government could over time take steps to

showcase a reduced dependence on Beijing.

In South Asia, Pakistani civilians and security forces were once again subjugated to a series

of mass-casualty militant attacks primarily stemming from TTP-linked elements. The

attacks, while showcasing militants’ persistent capabilities despite several coordinated anti-

militancy campaigns, also underscore resurgent divides amongst the TTP. In India, the

militant raid on the Pathankot airbase underscores the country’s vulnerability to

infiltrations from Pakistan, along with the increased risk of attacks during periods of

negotiations with Islamabad.


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The following list contains countries in the region with notable developments from the past month. Please choose your country of interest by clicking on its name below.

HIGH RISK

Pakistan ................................................................................................................... 4

MEDIUM RISK

Bangladesh ............................................................................................................... 5

China ....................................................................................................................... 6

India ........................................................................................................................ 7

Indonesia ................................................................................................................. 8

Malaysia .................................................................................................................. 9

Myanmar ............................................................................................................... 10

Philippines.............................................................................................................. 11

Thailand ................................................................................................................. 12

LOW RISK

Hong Kong .............................................................................................................. 13

Japan ..................................................................................................................... 14

Laos ....................................................................................................................... 15

Singapore ............................................................................................................... 16

South Korea ............................................................................................................ 17

Taiwan ................................................................................................................... 18

Vietnam ................................................................................................................. 19

Notable Dates for February 2016 ........................................................................................... 20


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Enduring threat of TTP–linked militant activity throughout Pakistan indicated by mass-

casualty attacks in Quetta, Balochistan on January 13 and Charsadda, Khyber

Pakhtunkhwa on January 20.

We advise against all nonessential travel to Pakistan given the heightened threat of

militancy, criminality, kidnappings and sectarian tensions throughout the country.

Enduring threat of TTP-linked militant activity throughout Pakistan

On January 13, a suicide bomber detonated himself outside a polio vaccination center in

Balochistan’s provincial capital city of Quetta, leaving at least 14 dead and several others

wounded. The attack, which was reportedly claimed by different militant groups,

Jundullah and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), targeted personnel tasked with providing

security to an ongoing polio eradication campaign in Quetta’s Satellite Town. In addition,

on January 20, at least 22 people were killed after four gunmen opened fire inside the

premises of Bacha Khan University in Charsadda, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. Although

the official spokesperson for the TTP, Omar Khorasani condemned the incident, the Tariq

Geedar faction of the TTP claimed responsibility for the attack, just hours after the assault.

These mass casualty incidents underscore the heightened threat of Islamist militancy

throughout Pakistan, particularly involving groups like the TTP that have seemingly

retained significant operational capacities despite ongoing military operations against

militant hideouts in the remote areas of northwestern Pakistan. These operations are in

addition to a nationwide crackdown, called the National Action Plan (NAP). Continued

large-scale attacks amidst sustained army operations, may suggest that domestic

Pakistani militants have changed their geographical base to areas less targeted by security

forces, or have alternatively located safe havens within Afghanistan’s poorly policed

border provinces, from where cross-border attacks can be devised. Elements within the

TTP umbrella group have conducted attacks on educational institutions and other

government programs like polio vaccination campaigns, which the factions consider both

un-Islamic and a signifier of the federal government’s increasing reach into Taliban-

controlled territory. The official TTP condemnation is possibly an attempt to avoid

significant retaliatory military action targeting the group over the coming weeks.

However, the condemnation potentially indicates the perceived growing inability for TTP

leader, Mullah Fazlullah, to maintain cooperation between various factions under the TTP

umbrella. TTP mass-casualty attacks on soft targets within Pakistan are likely to persist in

in the coming months.

Back to table of contents

HIGH RISK Notable Dates

Pakistan

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Persistent threat of Islamist militancy in Bangladesh highlighted by IS claim that it killed

Christian convert, firefight in Dhaka.

Continued political volatility in Bangladesh as sedition charges filed against BNP

chairperson.

Travel to Dhaka and Chittagong should be for business essential purposes only at this

time, given ongoing reports of violence emanating from political instability and

militancy.

Persistent threat of Islamist militancy in Bangladesh

On January 6, transnational Islamist organization, the Islamic State (IS), claimed responsibility

for killing a local Muslim for allegedly converting to Christianity in west Bangladesh. Later on

January 13, three Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) militants were arrested and two

more were killed in separate encounters with security forces in Dhaka city. On January 21,

Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), a militant group responsible for killing secular bloggers, issued

a death threat to 21 people including State Minister Zunaid Ahmed Palak and members of

parliament. On the same day, Dhaka police arrested 14 of 26 deportees from Singapore for

alleged links with ABT. The police refuted any evidence linking them with transnational

militant groups, however.

The incidents underscore the persistent threat of Islamist militancy in Bangladesh, emanating

mostly from domestic militants, some with a suspected operational nexus with transnational

militant groups. The current wave of Islamist violence, which largely began with the attacks

on bloggers by ABT, has mutated into a suicide attack and numerous shootings of minorities

and foreign nationals. Overall, the evolving attack methodology indicates a limited increase

in operational sophistication. Separately, the renewed activity of ABT can also be an attempt

to regain public attention, since JMB has been allegedly responsible for a string of high profile

attacks.

Sedition charges against BNP chairperson

On January 25, a sedition case was filed by an Awami League activist against Bangladesh

Nationalist Party (BNP) chief Kahleda Zia for her alleged remarks on December 22, when she

questioned the number of Bangladeshis killed during the 1971 war. She has been asked to

appear before court on March 3.

Sedition charges can be perceived to be politically motivated, and the Awami League is likely

to use this to gain political mileage by further undermining the BNP by targeting its senior

leadership. The BNP may respond over the coming weeks with protests against the charges,

yet a dramatic downturn in security conditions is unlikely to stem from the charges unless Zia

is convicted. Nonetheless, her appearance at court, if a hearing indeed takes place, will be a

charged event. There will exist the possibility of clashes outside the court house in addition to

possible attempts to attack her motorcade.


MEDIUM RISK Notable Dates

Bangladesh

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Legislators design law seeking to engender ethnic solidarity in restive Xinjiang.

Xinjiang activist sentenced for 19 years for alleged subversive activities, providing

intelligence overseas.

Travel to China may continue at this time while adhering to standard security protocols

given the latent threat of militancy and crime.

Provincial law envisaged to engender ethnic solidarity in Xinjiang Province

Provincial legislators formulated new regulations following extensive public consultations,

implemented since January 1, to engender ethnic solidarity in restive Xinjiang. The law seeks

to promote ethnic unity and harmony while assuring equal opportunities for citizens,

regardless of their ethnic identities, exclusively prohibiting differentiated treatment in the

provision of public services. The Turkic-speaking Muslim Uyghurs constitute one of the

significant ethnic groups in Xinjiang, which is home to over 40 other ethnic groups including

the Han and the Hui (Chinese Muslims). The aforementioned law is a perceived resuscitation

of preceding unification attempts by Beijing, such as the ‘Love the great Motherland and

create a better home campaign’ initiated in June 2010 following the Urumqi clashes in 2009.

The new legislation is likely an attempt by Beijing to project a democratic ethos of equality in

the troubled province. Moreover, it seeks to ensure harmony amidst rising dissonance among

the population over the continuous influx of the majority Han population and consequent

marginalization of other ethnic groups. Moreover, Beijing is liable to further attempts in the

coming months to strengthen the ethnic fabric in Xinjiang, considering the geostrategic

relevance of the province for its One Belt, One Road initiative.

Xinjiang activist sentenced for 19 years for subversive activities in January 2016

The activist was detained in June 2015 for allegedly publishing online posts critical of Beijing’s

perceivably repressive policies against ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and providing national

intelligence to foreign elements. Notably, the verdict comes amidst the rejection of press

credentials to a French journalist in December 2015 for her perceivably anti-Beijing reports

underscoring the administration’s crackdown on perceived separatist elements and religious

freedoms.

The relative stringency of the sentence with regard to dissent is likely a manifestation of the

administration’s perceivably increasing intolerance toward expression of anti-government

sentiments. Moreover, considering the attempt at obscurity that the administration seeks to

maintain over its policies in Xinjiang, with stringent regulations over media commentary on

government policies, the aforementioned sentence is potentially an attempt by Beijing to

deter potential negative manifestations of government policies, particularly by foreign-

backed media personnel.



China


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India

Suspected JeM militant attack on IAF base in Pathankot, Punjab on January 2.

Series of nationwide anti-militancy raids and arrests ahead of Republic Day.

Travel to India’s major cities can continue while travelers are advised to maintain

vigilance for security risks associated with crime, militancy and frequent and public large

demonstrations.

Suspected JeM militant attack on IAF base in Pathankot, Punjab on January 2

On January 2, suspected Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) militants infiltrated into

the Pathankot Indian Air Force (IAF) Base in Punjab and conducted a three-day attack, which

resulted in the death of seven Indian security personnel as well as all six militants. The attacks

came following Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to his Pakistani

counterpart PM Nawaz Sharif in Lahore on December 25. PM Sharif ensured a thorough

investigation into identifying the perpetrators, however, Indian officials postponed foreign

secretary level bilateral talks, which were slated for January 15.

The January 2 Pathankot infiltration serves as a reminder of the ease to which militant groups

and entities can infiltrate and conduct attacks on vital installations in India. While militant

attacks are frequently reported prior to bilateral dialogue, the response of PM Sharif is a

notable first in the relationship between the historically antagonistic neighbors. Although

suspected Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) complicity may not be acknowledged, it remains

likely that Pakistani authorities will conduct a series of notable arrests of suspected militants

to demonstrate its avowed commitment to peace in the sub-continent.

Series of nationwide anti-militancy raids and arrests ahead of Republic Day on January 26

In the month of January, security personnel conducted a series of noteworthy arrests of

suspected militants across the country. On January 7, the Special Cell of the Delhi Police

arrested a Madrassa teacher from Bangalore suspected of recruiting for al-Qaeda in

the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and on January 18 an alleged AQIS militant was arrested from

Haryana. Additionally, authorities are on high-alert nationwide following a series of raids

conducted by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) between January 22-23, where at least

11 alleged Islamic State (IS) sympathizers were arrested for allegedly plotting simultaneous

attacks across metropolitan cities on Republic Day.

Neither AQIS nor IS are known to have an active operational presence in India, however, the

alarming number of arrests conducted on suspected Islamist sympathizers and militants

across the country demonstrates a credible national security threat. Although Republic Day

passed without event, in light of the abovementioned threat coupled with the January 2

Pathankot attack, we assess that security will continue to be bolstered across major

metropolitan cities, specifically near government installations, soft-target locations such as

hotels and marketplaces, as well as domestic and international airports in the coming weeks.


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Coordinated militant attack takes place in Jakarta on January 14, resulting in subsequent

uptick of anti-militancy operations nationwide.

Travel to Jakarta [and/or other urban area] can continue while adhering to standard

security protocols given the threat of militancy and crime.

Series of coordinated militant attacks in Jakarta on January 14, resulting in subsequent

uptick of anti-militancy operations nationwide

On January 14, a coordinated attack occurred in Jakarta, which was later claimed by the

transnational militant group, the Islamic State (IS). Marking the first time the group has

targeted Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation, the attack was followed by

weeks of anti-militancy raids and arrests conducted by elite personnel Densus 88.

Authorities suspect that Indonesian IS militant Bahrun Naim, who currently resides in

Raqqa, Syria, planned the attack while Aman Abdurahman, an incarcerated cleric from

Aceh is suspected for radicalizing youth in jail and for coordinating with Syrian and local

militants to organize arms and ammunition.

The attack on January 14 in Jakarta was a significant escalation in militancy compared to

violence in the recent past, particularly as it took place on a major thoroughfare in

Indonesia’s bustling commercial capital, targeting Western interests in addition to police.

The IS link through Indonesian militant Bahrun Naim adds credence to rising fears that the

militant group has plans to establish a foothold in the country. While authorities may seek

to destabilize militant groups by impeding access to illegal funds, anti-militancy laws

remain frequently criticized for perceived weak regulations. Hence, it remains likely that

Indonesian authorities will seek to reform the law to include provisions for preventative

detention and de-radicalization, in order to comprehensively tackle the threat of Islamist

militancy and prevent further attacks. Furthermore, although the recent arrests highlight

the severely bolstered anti-militancy operations of Indonesian security personnel, given

the rising concerns of more imminent attacks by IS affiliates or sympathizers, a threat we

assess is real, President Joko Widodo could still entrust a major escalation in

security operations to the military. While the two remain close allies at the moment, an

upgrade in military infrastructure and expansion in institutional power may have

significant political ramifications, particularly by allowing the military to gain leverage over

the Widodo government in the near future. At this time, however, the government has

yet to take any major transformational steps in regards to its counter-militancy policy.

This may be indicative of efforts to avoid displays of panic and ostracizing the country’s

Islamist community.



Indonesia

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Investigation against Prime Minister (PM) Najib Razak over 1MDB embezzlement

dropped; prompts skepticism over issue, could spark further civil disruption.

Heightened Islamic State (IS) activity increases security concerns over potential attacks.

Travel to Kuala Lumpur can continue while taking necessary precautions to counter the threat of criminality, especially during the nighttime hours. Additionally, maintain vigilance nationwide, due to the latent threat of Islamist militancy.

Investigation against Prime Minister (PM) Najib Razak over 1MDB embezzlement dropped;

prompts skepticism over issue, could spark further civil disruption

On January 26, anti-corruption investigators revealed that the 681 million USD transferred

into the personal account of Prime Minister (PM) Najib Razak was not embezzlement through

the state run investment fund, 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), by PM Najib, but was

rather a gift from the Saudi Arabian royal family, and therefore not illegal under Malaysian

law. The allegations against PM Najib were first made on July 2, 2015, and subsequently led

to months of criticism from the leader’s political opponents, fueling a general mistrust of the

Malaysian government and civil unrest including the August 29-30 Bersih 4.0 rally. In that

regard, PM Najib’s critics have questioned the probe, insinuating it was biased towards PM

Najib, particularly given that the details of the case have not been released, namely who

specifically in the royal family gave PM Najib the donation, and what was the money used for.

Notwithstanding, the criticism against the case is unlikely to spark a renewed investigation,

and in turn, it is plausible that the findings will further fuel civil discontent, which could include

mass protests in the country in the coming weeks and months, further dividing an already

highly contentious Malaysian society.

Heightened Islamic State (IS) activity increases security concerns over potential attacks

Malaysia has been on high alert for militancy since the Jakarta attacks on January 14, of which

a Southeast Asian Malay-speaking branch of the Islamic State currently fighting alongside IS

in Syria, Katibah Nusantara, claimed responsibility. Following the attacks, authorities

conducted security operations, which led to the arrest of a suspected IS-linked suicide bomber

at Jelatek Train Station, Kuala Lumpur on January 15, who was allegedly planning an attack on

an entertainment venue in the Petronas Twin Towers, as well as the apprehension of seven

IS-linked militants, as part of a three-day police operation in Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, Pahang,

Johor and Kedah that ended on January 24, who were planning attacks nationwide. Following

this, on January 25, Katibah Nusantara issued a video pledging to conduct militant attacks in

the country. In line with this, despite the ongoing efforts by security forces to apprehended

IS-linked suspects, authorities are unlikely in the near term going to completely dismantle IS’

network in Malaysia. As a result, authorities are liable to remain on high alert over the coming

months, as the threat of a further attacks remains an increased concern.



Malaysia

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Despite Aung San Suu Kyi’s participation in the five-day Union Peace Conference in

Naypyidaw, no significant breakthrough in peace talks reported.

Territorial dispute devolves into clashes between Shan State-based militant groups.

Travel to Naypyidaw, Mandalay and Yangon may continue at this time while adhering

to basic security protocols given the latent threat of militancy and crime.

Despite Suu Kyi’s participation in conference, no significant breakthrough in talks reported

On January 12, the five-day Union Peace Conference took place in Naypyidaw, seeking to build

on the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) that was signed by key rebel groups in October

2015. The ongoing peace process is considered one of Thein Sein’s main legacies from his five-

year term as President. Despite previously stating her intention to skip the event, National

League for Democracy (NLD) party head Aung San Suu Kyi appeared at the conference and

gave a speech at the opening ceremony. The majority of significant ethnic organizations,

including the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) did not sign the NCA or attend the event.

Predictably, the conference did not produce any significant progress in peace talks, although

it set a framework for the next government, when the conference reconvenes.

Despite that the legitimization of the current NCA will likely make it increasingly difficult for

the NLD to deviate from the plan as it has effectively laid out a roadmap for dialogue on

Myanmar’s federalization, Suu Kyi’s participation may have served as a tacit approval of the

initiative. This may have been a gesture to military elites, assuring them that the incoming

administration will not seek a quarrelsome relationship in regards to the trajectory of peace

talks.

Territorial dispute devolves into clashes between Shan State-based militant groups

A series of clashes reportedly took place between TNLA and Shan State Army - South (SSA-S)

contingents on January 17-19 in the northern Shan State townships of Kyaukme, Hsipaw and

Namhsan. Both sides reportedly accuse the other of encroaching on territory under their

control. A TNLA spokesman alleged that SSA-S was supported by Tatmadaw soldiers during

the battles. The SSA-S signed the NCA in October but the TNLA remains a non-signatory.

While mid-January witnessed a notable escalation in the frequency of clashes, at least 10

instances of violence have broken out between the two groups since November. Although the

extent of the coordination remains unknown, recent advancements in the NCA process may

have led to increasing relations between the SSA-S and Tatmadaw, resulting in some degree

of cooperation against the TNLA, currently a mutual enemy of the two forces. It remains

possible that the SSA-S is asserting control over TNLA-controlled territory while the group is

not recognized as a partner in the current peace process, in order to capitalize on their current

marginalization. The Tatmadaw may also be encouraging activities against the TNLA, in order

to purport incentives for cooperating with the government initiative. Due to further progress

in the NCA with certain groups over others, instances of turf clashes are liable to continue.



Myanmar


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Jihadist groups in Mindanao release video showing consolidation, pledging allegiance to

Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria; highlights IS’s intentions of establishing a satellite state

in the region.

Security checkpoints erected, stricter gun control rules implemented; highlights

underlying potential for election related violence ahead of May 9 polls.

Travel to Metro Manila may continue at this time while adhering to standard security

protocols given the latent threat of militancy and crime.

Jihadist groups in Mindanao release video showing consolidation of forces, pledging

allegiance to Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria

A video that emerged in dark web jihadist forums on January 4, surfacing in local reports on

January 11, revealed that translational militant group the Islamic State has formed even closer

ties with several southern Philippine based militant groups. The supposedly new unified

group, including fighters from Abu Sayyaf and Ansar al-Khilafa, aims to establish an IS satellite

state in the region, as IS in the Middle East has been seeking to create a province in Southeast

Asia.

Though some of the groups present in the video previously pledged support for IS, the video

is notable as it shows they are aiming to unite under the IS banner. Although the formation of

the group could prove to be a more significant challenge to the Philippine security

establishment, the threat of successful annexation of sufficient territory by IS in the

Philippines remains relatively low at this time, largely due to the localized nature of the Moro

insurgent conflict as a whole. Nonetheless, government forces will likely closely monitor the

movements of these militants over the coming weeks and months in order to prevent an

attempted annexation of territory, in addition to major mass casualty attacks.

Security checkpoints erected, sticker gun control rules implemented; highlights underlying

potential for election related violence ahead of May 9 polls

On January 10, the Commission on Elections (Comelec), enforced several civil prohibitions,

including a nationwide gun ban, whereby no person will be permitted to carry or transport

firearms or other deadly weapons in public places in order mitigate pre-election violence

predicted over the coming months. Nonetheless, despite the government’s efforts, several

cases of election related violence were reported nationwide in January.

In that regard, further acts of violence, including targeted killings, case of extortion as well as

intimidation, and communal clashes should be expected in the country’s major urban hubs,

as well as in its rural locales over the coming weeks and months. In addition, as the May 9

elections draw closer, both the federal and local governments alike, are expected to further

increase election related security, which may include curfews and additional civil prohibitions.



Philippines

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January 19 explosion in Songkhla province in southern Thailand kills one and wounds

seven.

Anonymous Hacker group hacks more than 300 Thai websites in separate incidents on

January 4 and 21

Travel to Bangkok may continue while adhering to standard security precautions

regarding the latent risk of civil unrest and the threat of attacks.

January 19 explosion in Songkhla province in southern Thailand kills one and wounds seven

In the month of January, ethnic-Malay insurgents have increased their activities in southern

Thailand, most notably highlighted by the January 19 twin explosions in which one women

was killed and seven people were wounded in Songkhla Province along South Thailand’s Soi

Sawan beach. Moreover on January 12, security forces captured an insurgent camp in Cho

Airong in South Narathiwat province.

The aforementioned incidents indicate the persistent threat of insurgent violence, primarily

limited to the provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat in South Thailand. However, isolated

incidents of spill over violence occur in the neighboring provinces despite the success of the

Thai security forces in containing the ethnic-Malay insurgency within the aforementioned

areas. With this in mind, although 2015 saw a significant drop in insurgent violence, the low

intensity insurgency is likely to persist in the absence of a viable political solution.

Anonymous Hacker group hacks more than 300 Thai websites in separate incidents on

January 4 and 21

Blink Hackers Group, a Myanmarese Group associated with the Anonymous collective

reportedly hacked into 14 Thai police websites in January 4 and into 297 websites of the Thai

government on January 21 to protest the conviction of two Myanmarese migrants to death

for the alleged murder of two British tourists in 2014. Following the verdict, demonstrations

were made outside Thai embassy in Yangon. Furthermore on January 3, the group had posted

a video accusing Thai authorities of falsely implicating the migrants.

The high number of websites attacked by the anonymous collective highlights the continued

vulnerability of Thai government’s information networks to a cyber-attack. Since the Thai

court has allowed the accused to appeal the verdict, with the deadline set for late February,

we assess that the attacks are liable to be momentarily halted. However, if the previous

sentence is upheld, further hacking campaigns by the online activist groups are liable to

recommence in the days following the final ruling.



Thailand


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Disappearances of booksellers and publishers intensifies contentions regarding Beijing’s

encroachment on the sovereignty of Hong Kong autonomous region.

Travel to Hong Kong can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions

regarding civil unrest, crime and protests.

Booksellers’ and publishers’ disappearances intensifies contentions about Beijing’s

encroachment on the sovereignty of Hong Kong

The mysterious circumstances surrounding the disappearances of five employees of a

Causeway Bay bookstore in Hong Kong, since mid-October 2015, has raised concerns over

Beijing’s potential attempts to encroach upon the sovereignty of Hong Kong. The

bookstore and publishing house reportedly sold politically sensitive publications that were

also critical of the Chinese leadership. The issue reached a tipping point when a British

citizen and co-owner of the bookstore, Lee Bo, disappeared from Hong Kong in December

2015. Bo was later traced to mainland China where he is allegedly assisting in an

investigation by Chinese authorities. This information was conveyed to a media house

through a letter purportedly handwritten by Bo. Approximately 10,000 people

participated in a demonstration on January 10, to protest against Hong Kong’s perceivably

inert investigation into the disappearances. Additionally, there has been widespread

discontent among the public against the incumbent government, which is largely

perceived to be pro-Beijing. On January 17, Gui Minhai, co-owner of the bookstore and a

Swedish citizen, was paraded on Chinese state television confessing to a criminal offense

and claiming that he returned to China, in October 2015, of his own volition. The ‘Basic

Law’, the de-facto constitution of the autonomous region, underlines that Hong Kong will

co-exist with China as ‘One Country, Two Systems’ for 50 years following the 1997 transfer

of power to China.

Considering that the mysterious disappearance of foreign nationals has drawn

widespread criticism from the international community against China’s perceivably

arbitrary actions, regarding Hong Kong, Beijing may continue to utilize purported forced

confessions to curtail further criticism. Furthermore, the disappearances and subsequent

attempts by China to veil its involvement is liable to be a catalyst for accelerating anti-

Beijing sentiments within the autonomous region. Meanwhile, China’s increasing

involvement in the political workings of Hong Kong, is likely to intensify tensions among

the citizens, particularly the younger generation, possibly reiterating the significance of

establishing a separate identity as citizens of Hong Kong. Despite increasing public

discontent, the political situation between Hong Kong and China is likely to remain

unaffected the coming weeks, considering the pro-Beijing stance of the incumbent

government.


LOW RISK Notable Dates

Hong Kong

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Tokyo, Beijing trade warnings against provocative actions in East China Sea.

Travel to Japan can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions

regarding protests.

Tokyo, Beijing trade warnings against provocative actions in East China Sea

As part of the ongoing disagreement over the sovereignty of a cluster of islands known as

the Senkaku in Japan, and Diaoyu in China, in early January the two countries exchanged

warnings regarding the islands. Reports from January 12 state that Japan will no longer

grant passage to Chinese naval vessels that enter Japanese territorial waters, specifically

near the disputed islands, and that Japanese warships will be dispatched to the area to

order intruders to leave the area. In response to Japan's declaration, China’s Foreign

Ministry warned Japan on January 13 not to take any provocative actions in the area.

Furthermore, in a policy speech on January 22, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida

warned against China’s increasing maritime activities and said that Japan will resolutely

and calmly respond to China’s unilateral resource development and territorial intrusions

in the East China Sea. There have been 35 occasions throughout 2015 where Chinese

vessels were seen in the area of the disputed islands, and ignored Japanese requests to

leave the area.

Dispute over these islands have been a major factor in Japan-China relations due to its

proximity to important shipping lanes, rich fishing grounds, and potential oil and gas

reserves. They are also in a strategically significant position at a time in which there is

rising competition between the US and China for military power in the Asia-Pacific region,

as well as increasing tensions between multiple parties in the nearby South China Sea. In

addition, the presence of warships in the disputed area increases the chances of an

accidental security incident between the two regional powers, which could potentially

escalate into a more serious incident. However, overt conflict between the two neighbors

remains unlikely as Japan and China both have significant economic ties wherein any

escalation over this territory would have wide-scale consequences.



Japan


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Chinese nationals killed in suspected bomb blast in Xaisomboun Province on January 24;

highlights lingering threat of violence in outlying areas.

Travel to Laos can continue as normal, while taking precautions against crime and

avoiding all political gatherings and demonstrations as a basic security precaution.

Avoid nonessential travel to Xaisomboun Province given reports of intermittent

violence there.

Violence in Xaisomboun Province leaves two Chinese nationals dead The Chinese embassy in Vientiane has confirmed the deaths of two of its nationals, and

the wounding of another in an alleged bomb attack on a vehicle in the central Xaisomboun

Province of Laos during the morning hours of January 24. One of the victims was

reportedly an employee of a Chinese mining company from south China’s Yunnan

Province. Xaisomboun Province has been home to sporadic violence and criminality in

general due to the ethnic conflict witnessing an uptick in recent months. At least one

person was killed and three others were wounded in December 2015 when assailants

allegedly fired at vehicles traveling in the area. Furthermore, the US and Australian

embassies issued travel warnings in November 2015 in the wake of the killing of an

unconfirmed number of individuals between November 15-18 by assailants in

Xaisomboun. Following the spate of violent incidents a curfew was declared in the

province on December 11.

Xaisomboun houses the Hmong ethnic group, members of which have been complicit in

an insurgency against the Lao People's Army since 1975. China is one of the largest

investors in the country and bilateral trade with Laos, amounts to approximately 3 billion

USD annually. While China shares borders with the country, the resource-rich country,

particularly the Xaisomboun Province, has witnessed increasing Chinese interests in

infrastructure development.

While it remains unconfirmed if the attack was perpetrated by Hmong insurgents, it is a

distinct possibility, considering that small bands of insurgents have continued to battle

the government in the province over the years. This conflict continues, despite the

government having largely suppressed the Cold War-related insurgency. Moreover, the

recent attacks may point to an effort by local insurgents to intensify the conflict, possibly

to undermine government rule and deter direct investment in the mountainous region. In

that light, there remains an intermittent threat of similar attacks over the coming months,

including against foreign interests. With that being said, it should not be ruled out that

the Chinese nationals were targeted directly. There is reportedly underlying discontent

among the Hmong people over the perceived exploitation of natural resources by foreign

companies. In this context, the Chinese nationals could have been targeted due to their

affiliation to a mining company linked to China. As a result, it should be expected that the

government will intensify efforts to subdue any effort to expand the conflict.



Laos

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Foreign Bangladeshi nationals identified as radical Islamists deported by authorities;

underscores latent extremist presence in Singapore.

Travel to Singapore can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions regarding the latent threat of militancy.

Foreign Bangladeshi nationals identified as radical Islamists deported by authorities

On January 20 the Singaporean government announced that 26 out of 27 male

Bangladeshi nationals arrested under the Internal Security Act (ISA) were deported back

to Bangladesh after being identified as radical Islamists who sympathized with jihadist

militant ideology. Furthermore, police investigators indicated that the foreign nationals,

who were employed in Singapore’s construction industry, supported transnational

militant ideology of groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS). The investigation

also revealed that the Bangladeshis were part of a closed radical Islamist study group and

were in possession of materials describing how to conduct attacks. Additionally on

January 20, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) claimed that several of the suspects were

considering traveling overseas to join radical militant organizations and were not plotting

to conduct attacks within Singapore itself. The Singaporean government briefed

Bangladesh on the activities and intentions regarding several of the deported foreign

nationals who were reportedly planning to conduct attacks against the incumbent

Bangladeshi government on Bangladesh soil.

The January 20 announcement by the Singaporean government regarding the deportation

of the Bangladeshi radical Islamists highlights the latent existence of Islamic extremist

ideology within the city-state. Furthermore, these arrests indicate the increasing potential

for related security threats posed to Singapore by both national and foreign radical

Islamists. Additionally, given Singapore’s central locality within Southeast Asia radical

Islamists may view the city-state to be a transit point between East and West. Although

militant entities likely consider the city-state as a legitimate target given that Singapore is

an international financial and commerce hub, with close ties to Western governments,

the underlying threat of an extensive militant network operating in Singapore remains

relatively low at this time.



Singapore

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North Korea conducts ‘hydrogen’ bomb nuclear test on January 6, faces worldwide

condemnation and multiple ramifications including proposed UNSC sanctions.

KCTU President indicted on charges of inciting violence during November 14 rally in

downtown Seoul.

Travel to Seoul may continue at this time, while adhering to security protocols regarding

protests, crime, and the lingering risk of conflict with North Korea.

North Korea conducts ‘hydrogen’ bomb nuclear test on January 6, faces worldwide

condemnation and multiple ramifications including proposed UNSC sanctions.

On January 6, North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test with the alleged detonation of its

first thermonuclear ‘hydrogen’ bomb at the Punggye-ri nuclear site in North Hamyong

province. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) convened an emergency meeting to

discuss further sanctions targeting North Korea’s weapons programs following the test. The

US Pacific Command flew a B-52 bomber over South Korea on January 10 and deployed a

second nuclear powered aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific in a show of solidarity with its

allies in the region. Following the nuclear test and the possibility of further stringent sanctions

on North Korea’s weapons program, Pyongyang has been attempting to secure a peace treaty

with the US, China and South Korea.

The proposed imposition of a new series of comprehensive sanctions by the UNSC on North

Korea following its latest nuclear test is likely to further isolate the impoverished country

economically. Additionally, the United States’ deployment of strategic military assets around

the Korean Peninsula was likely to bolster South Korean confidence in US defense agreements

and is likely to be comprehended by North Korea as a threat to its nuclear and ballistic missile

programs and is liable to exacerbate tensions in the region.

KCTU President indicted on charges of inciting violence during November 14 rally in

downtown Seoul

President of the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU), South Korea’s second largest

labor union, was indicted on charges of inciting violence during the November 14 anti-

government rally. The local police are involved in further investigations to build a case for the

application of a sedition charge on the union leader who was earlier arrested from the Jogye

Temple in Seoul’s Jogno-gu area, where he was seeking refuge.

The indictment of charges against the KCTU President highlights the government’s resolve to

crackdown on recent anti-government protests and deter further episodes of civil unrest.

Further measures taken by the government against perceived violent unrest are liable to

reaffirm the perception that President Park Geun-hye may be steering South Korea towards a

more authoritative rule while simultaneously curbing public dissent against her government.



South Korea


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DPP President elect Tsai Ing-wen ensures stability, democracy and reforms after obtaining

substantial victory in January 16 general elections.

Sequence of military exercises by China, Taiwan in late January reiterates tensions.

Travel to Taiwan can continue as normal while adhering to basic security precautions

regarding civil unrest and protests.

President elect Tsai Ing-wen ensures stability, democracy and reforms after obtaining

substantial victory in January 16 general elections

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won an absolute majority within the Legislative Yuan,

after candidate Tsai Ing-wen obtained 56.12 percent of the vote against main opposition Eric

Chu, chairman of Taiwan’s ruling Kuomintang party (KMT), in the January 16 general elections.

The DPP now holds 68 seats in the 113-seat legislature. Furthermore, the president-elect

ensured stability, democracy, and promised reforms during a January 16 press conference.

Additionally, Tsai indicated that in regards to China the status quo would be maintained, while

the basis for encouraging further cross-straits relations with China would arise from cross-

party consensus and public opinion.

Despite gaining a major victory in the January 16 elections, Tsai will likely mostly preserve the

status quo, especially in regards to cross-straits relations with China, as her administration

transitions into government. However, Tsai will likely look to implement new reforms, while

taking steps to reduce China’s influence on Taiwan, once the president-elect gains a

comfortable foothold within the leadership position.

Sequence of military exercises by China, Taiwan in late January reiterates tensions

Days after President elect Tsai Ing-wen gained a substantial victory in the presidential

elections, China reportedly conducted military exercises and live-fire drills in an undisclosed

location, opposite Taiwan. Additionally, on January 26 Taiwan’s elite navy commandos

reportedly conducted similar beach landing exercises and simulated attacks on Kinmen Island,

situated in the cross-straits.

While Taiwan’s exercises may have been conducted in response to China’s live-fire drills and

landing scenarios given the timing of these exercises, Taiwan’s naval drills are most likely a

routine exercise carried out for refresher training purposes. Nevertheless, the sequence of

military drills conducted by both countries highlights ongoing tensions between pro-

independence political elements in Taiwan and the growing influence of mainland China. Such

tensions are liable to remain a pressure point between the two neighboring countries,

particularly with the transition of the new government.



Taiwan


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General Secretary re-elected as National Congress of Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)

concludes, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung set for political exit.

China lands airplanes on artificial islands near Spratly Islands while Chinese armored

vessels sink Vietnamese fishing boats in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone.

Travel to Vietnam can continue adhering to standard security protocols.

General Secretary re-elected as National Congress of Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)

concludes, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung set for political exit

With the conclusion of the National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) on

January 28, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong was re-elected for a full five year term. The

re-election of Trong comes following a power tussle with Prime Minister (PM) Nguyen Tan

Dung who sought to challenge the leadership of the CP. Dung, who is likely to retire after the

January 28 results, is perceived to have pitched for a pro-reforms agenda with the

introduction of swift liberal measures that included Hanoi’s accession to the US-led Trans-

Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement.

The re-election of Trong as General Secretary may be viewed as a realignment of Vietnam’s

polity towards Chinese influence after the ouster of PM Dung from the political spectrum.

Furthermore, the election represents a more cautious leadership-by-consensus approach that

Hanoi has taken historically over individuals perceived as pro-reforms leaders during the

convening of the Congress. Lastly, fundamental government policies in context to trade pacts

and economic reforms are liable to remain unchanged under the new leadership of the CPV.

Beijing lands airplanes near disputed Spratly Islands while Chinese armored vessels sink

Vietnamese fishing boats near Gulf of Tonkin on January 2

China landed multiple airplanes on artificially built islands in the Fiery Cross Reef in the

disputed Spratly Islands claimed by both Beijing and Hanoi throughout January. Vietnam

registered a formal complaint with the Chinese government, viewing the landings as a

violation of its sovereignty. The claims by Vietnam were rejected by Beijing as China asserts

hegemony over the majority of the South China Sea, an area believed to have vast natural gas

and oil deposits. Meanwhile, Chinese armored vessels sank a Vietnamese fishing boat near

the Gulf of Tonkin in Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) on January 2.

Claims over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea have been a contentious issue in China-

Vietnam relations, leading to diplomatic stand-offs in the past. The landings and the sinking

of fishing boats strengthen the argument of stakeholders in the region of alleged Chinese

aggression in the South China Sea with constant perceived provocations. While there is a

sense of general dissatisfaction in Vietnam over the claims made by China, given China’s

superior military and economic power in the region, the issue is likely to remain at an impasse

in the coming months with further incidents regarding perceived Chinese incursion likely to

continue.



Vietnam


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Notable Dates for February 2016

Asia

Date Short Summary Assessment and Recommendation

February 7-13 Lunar New Year Lunar New Year is celebrated in countries with significant Chinese populations, and is typically a public holiday. In Indonesia and Thailand it is marked on February 8. In Hong Kong it is

marked on February 8-10, while in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore it is observed on February 8-9. The New Year is celebrated in Korea from February 7-10. In China and Taiwan, Lunar New Year is marked as a week-long holiday. Disruptions to business continuity and

travel are likely given the New Year is a

national holiday, as well as planned road

closures due to parade routes. Allot for

disruptions to business continuity as well

as travel delays due to parades and

festival related traffic. Most government

offices, banks, and public utilities will be

closed.

Bangladesh – Back to portion


February 21 Language Movement

Day

Language Movement Day, or Shahid

Dibosh, is a public holiday in Bangladesh

celebrating the Bengali national

language movement of 1952. It is a

national holiday; public and private

offices are closed, and there are a

number of celebrations and events,

including parades.

India - Back to portion


February 2, 2016

GHMC elections public

holiday

Elections for the Greater Hyderabad

Municipal Corporation GHMC, which is

held once every five years has been

declared a public holiday. Government


Pag

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February 12, 2016

February 19, 2016

February 22, 2016

Vasanta Panchami/

Shree Panchami famous

Hindu festival that

marks the end of winter

Birthday of Chatrapati

Shivaji Maharaj

Guru Ravidas Jayanti

Sikh holiday

offices and private businesses will

reportedly be closed for the day. Limited

disruptions to business continuity are

liable due to the slated holiday.

Is a regional Punjab public holiday, while

government offices and educational

facilities do not operate, many private

businesses remain open. Various

processions are staged in a variety of

locations. Allot additional travel time

when traveling through major urban

centers due to the slated public

processions.

A regional holiday in Mumbai to

celebrate the birthday of Chatrapati

Shivaji Maharaj an Indian war hero. Shiv

Sena frequently organizes events at

Shivaji Park in Mahim. Allot additional

travel time in Mumbai given the

potential for disruptions stemming from

public festivities.

The regional holiday in the states of

Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh

marks the birthday of Guru Ravidas an

Indian mystic that argued Indians should

have a set of basic human rights. To mark

his birthday, devotees stage

processions, particularly in Seer

Govardhanpur. Additional travel time

should be allotted when traveling

through the aforementioned states due

to possible traffic disruptions caused by

the processions.

Japan – Back to portion



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February 11, 2016 National Foundation

Day

The annual public holiday celebrates the

founding of the Japanese nation and is a

nationwide public holiday. As a result

most government and business

institutions will be closed, which will

lead to business continuity disruptions.

On the day the Japanese flag is raised

and the Prime Minister of Japan gives a

speech, other than this no official

parades or ceremonies are organized,

most people restrict themselves indoors

on the day.

Myanmar – Back to portion


February 12 Union Day Union Day celebrates the creation of

Myanmar through the signing of the

Panglong agreement, which saw the

Burmese government create autonomy

with a number of the ethnic peoples in

Myanmar. Union Day is a national

holiday meaning public and private

offices are likely to be closed. It is

celebrated with ceremonies, and events

throughout the country.

Pakistan - Back to portion


February 5 Kashmir Solidarity Day This day has been declared a public

holiday since 1990 to protest against

India’s control over part of Kashmir.

Government offices, financial and

education institutions are closed. The

day is marked with different events,

political rallies and marches in each

province.

It is advised to maintain heightened

vigilance and to avoid large crowds

during holiday due to the heightened

threat of militancy within Pakistan and

as well as the potential for localized

unrest. Furthermore, allot additional


Pag

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travel time throughout major urban

centers given the possibility for travel

disruptions stemming from local events.

Philippines – Back to portion


February 25 EDSA Revolution

Anniversary – a special

non-working day. Marks

the 1983 series of

demonstrations, the

'People Power

Revolution' against

regime violence and

corruption.

While only schools will be closed during

this day, given the holiday's symbolic

significance, anti-government protests

may take place.

Sri Lanka – Back to portion


February 4

National Day, also

known as Independence

Day

The holiday is celebrated as a national

holiday and denotes Sri Lanka’s

independence from British rule on

February 4, 1948.

Taiwan - Back to portion


February 28-29 Peace Memorial Day,

also known as 228

Memorial Day.

The annual national holiday marks the

228 Massacre which took place in

Taiwan 1947, and is commemorated

each year on February 28, this year the

date falls on a Sunday, and as a result

the holiday will be on February 29. Due

to the public holiday, disruptions to

business continuity should be expected

as most civil and government

institutions will be closed. Moreover,

traffic disruptions in major urban

centers could occur as the day is marked

by memorial services, concerts, group

runs and art exhibitions.


Pag

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Thailand – Back to portion


February 22

Makha Bucha Day Maka Bucha is a national holiday in

Thailand. The sale of alcohol is banned

on religious holidays, so bars and clubs

will be closed for the entire holiday.

Further, as a national holiday

government and private institutions will

be closed, making disruptions to

business continuity liable.

Vietnam - Back to portion


February 8 Tet - Vietnamese New

Year

Vietnamese New Year is the most

important celebration in Vietnamese

culture, typically resulting in the closure

of all private and public institutions.

Large-scale festivals and parades are

witnessed in major population centers

throughout the day, which could lead to

significant disruptions of travel and

business continuity. Immediately

following New Year’s, until February 13,

several days honoring religious freedom

and political independence known as Tet

Days are celebrated. As nationally

observed holidays, business and public

offices will remain closed.



Pag

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Have additional questions? Contact us at +44 20 3540 0434 or email us at [email protected] DISCLAIMER: Please note that any views and/or opinions and/or assessment and/or recommendations presented in this text are solely those of Max Security. If you are not the named addressee you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this text. If you are not the intended recipient you are notified that disclosing, copying, distributing or taking any action in reliance on the contents of this information is strictly prohibited. Max Security Solutions accepts no liability for (i) the contents of this text/report being correct, complete or up to date; (ii) consequences of any actions taken or not taken as a result and/or on the basis of such contents. Copyright - 2016 Max Security

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Asia Regional Summary - Max Security · alochistan’s provincial capital city of Quetta, leaving at least 14 dead and several others wounded. The attack, which was reportedly claimed