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ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat M. Nag NCAER LECTURES 2015 1 …a five lecture series Rajat M. Nag Distinguished Fellow, NCAER May 12, 2015

ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

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Page 1: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained

`

… a ten seminar series

Moderated by Rajat M. Nag

NCAER LECTURES

2015

1

…a five lecture series

Rajat M. Nag

Distinguished Fellow, NCAER

May 12, 2015

Page 2: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

• SEMINAR 9: Population Dynamics and Demographics

2

Page 3: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Infrastructure : a pathway to inclusive growth

3

Page 4: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Infrastructure can draw growth, poverty reduction, and reduced inequality into a

reinforcing cycle

4

Page 5: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

5

Linkage between Infrastructure,

Growth and Poverty Reduction

Page 6: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Connecting Infrastructure, Growth, Poverty and Inequality

• First, the volume and quality of infrastructure stocks has a significant positive effect on long-run economic growth on which poverty reduction depends

• Second, it helps the poor access to basic services ( access to water, sanitation, electricity ) that improve their lives and income opportunities which in turn has a robust negative impact on income inequality.

6

Page 7: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Empirical evidence of the impacts of infrastructure development on growth, poverty reduction and reducing inequality.

More than 100 studies conducted over the past twenty years show positive impacts

7

Page 8: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

8

Plot of Per Capita Income and Physical Infrastructure Index

Page 9: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

9

Infrastructure Outcomes and Per Capita Income levels

Page 10: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

• In a study on Latin American infrastructure, were all Latin American countries to catch up with the region’s leader in terms of infrastructure quantity and quality, their long-term per capita growth gains would range between 1.1 and 4.8 percent per annum, and their Gini coefficients would decline between 0.02 and 0.10.

• Catch up with the East Asian median country would involve even larger gains – ranging from 3.2. to 6.3 percent extra growth and 0.05 to 0.13 lower Ginis

10

Page 11: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

• In Thailand, around 40% of survey respondents

associated electricity with increases in income. • In India, poverty rates were lowest for

households near good roads and with electricity, and highest for households with neither (ADB 2004).

11

Page 12: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

• In the Lao PDR, all-weather road access lowered the incidence of poverty by around 6 percentage points (Warr 2005).

• In Viet Nam, poor households living in rural communities with paved roads had a 67% higher probability of escaping poverty than those in communities without paved roads (Glewwe et al. 2002).

12

Page 13: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

• In Indonesia, 64% of women who lived near a paved road received antenatal care by a medically trained midwife, compared with 38% of those living near a nonpaved road.

13

Page 14: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

14

Page 15: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

15

Page 16: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Global Competitive Index 2014-2015

GCI Infrastructure

Score (1-7) Rank (out

of 144) Score (1-7) Rank (out

of144)

Bangladesh 3.7 109 2.4 127

China 4.9 28 4.7 46

India 4.2 71 3.6 87

Indonesia 4.6 34 4.4 56

Japan 5.5 6 6.1 6

Korea 5.0 26 5.7 14

Malaysia 5.2 20 5.5 25

Thailand 4.7 31 4.6 48

Vietnam 4.2 68 3.7 81

Singapore 5.6 2 6.5 2

Hong Kong 5.5 7 6.7 1

Source: GCR 2014-15

16

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Sco

re

GCI Infrastructure

Page 17: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Quality of Overall Infrastructure (2014 and 2006) 1=extremely underdeveloped; 7=extensive and efficient

Source: WEF, Global Competitiveness Report, 2014-2015, Table 2.01

17

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Bangladesh

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Switzerland

Hong Kong

Singapore

World

Advanced Economies

Emerging Developing Economies

2006 2014

Page 18: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Bangladesh

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Singapore

2006 2014

Quality of Roads 1=extremely underdeveloped; 7=extensive and efficient

2014 2006

score ranking score ranking

Bangladesh 2.9 117 3.1 72

China 4.6 49 4.0 45

India 3.8 76 3.2 66

Indonesia 3.9 72 2.1 110

Japan 5.9 10 6.1 8

Korea 5.6 18 5.2 25

Malaysia 5.6 19 5.7 15

Thailand 4.5 50 5.0 28

Vietnam 3.2 104 2.5 91

Singapore 6.1 6 6.7 1

Source: GCR, 2014-2015 Table 2.02, GCR 2006

18

Page 19: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Bangladesh

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Switerland

Hong Kong

2006 2014

Quality of Railroad Infrastructure 1=extremely underdeveloped; 7=extensive and efficient

2014 2006

score ranking score ranking

Bangladesh 2.4 75 2.3 68

China 4.8 17 3.8 33

India 4.2 27 4.7 21

Indonesia 3.7 41 2.4 64

Japan 6.7 1 6.6 2

Korea 5.6 10 5.2 13

Malaysia 5 12 5 17

Thailand 2.4 74 3.6 40

Vietnam 3 52 2.2 70

Switerland 6.6 2 6.8 1

Hong Kong 6.3 3 6.3 5

Source: GCR, 2014-2015 Table 2.03, GCR 2006

19

Page 20: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Bangladesh

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Singapore

2006 2014

Quality of Port Infrastructure 1=extremely underdeveloped; 7=extensive and efficient

2014 2006

score ranking score ranking

Bangladesh 3.7 93 2.4 98

China 4.6 53 3.7 55

India 4.0 76 3.5 61

Indonesia 4.0 77 2.4 97

Japan 5.3 26 6.0 8

Korea 5.3 27 5.2 27

Malaysia 5.6 19 5.8 13

Thailand 4.5 54 4.7 37

Vietnam 3.7 88 2.7 89

Singapore 6.7 2 6.9 1

Source: GCR, 2014-2015 Table 2.09, GCR 2006

20

Page 21: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Bangladesh

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Singapore

Hong Kong

2006 2014

Quality of Air Transport Infrastructure 1=extremely underdeveloped; 7=extensive and efficient

2014 2006

score ranking score ranking

Bangladesh 3 127 2.5 120

China 4.7 58 3.7 89

India 4.3 71 5.1 46

Indonesia 4.5 64 4.1 73

Japan 5.5 27 6.4 8

Korea 5.4 31 5.5 31

Malaysia 5.7 19 6 16

Thailand 5.3 54 5.5 31

Vietnam 4 88 3.8 82

Singapore 6.8 1 6.9 1

Hong Kong 6.6 3 6.7 3 Source: GCR, 2014-2015 Table 2.05, GCR 2006

21

Page 22: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Quality of Infrastructure (2014)

1=lowest; 7=highest; /Rank out of 144

Overall Roads Railway Power Air Electricity

Bangladesh 2.8/130 2.9/117 2.4/75 3.7/93 3.0/127 2.5/124

China 4.4/64 4.6/49 4.8/17 4.6/53 4.7/58 5.2/56

India 3.7/96 3.8/76 4.2/27 4.0/76 4.3/71 3.4/103

Indonesia 4.2/72 3.9/72 3.7/41 4.0/77 4.5/64 4.3/84

Japan 6.2/9 5.9/10 6.7/1 5.3/26 5.5/27 6.3/25

Korea 5.5/23 5.6/18 5.6/10 5.3/27 5.4/31 5.5/44

Malaysia 5.6/20 5.6/19 5.0/12 5.6/19 5.7/19 5.7/39

Thailand 4.1/76 4.5/50 2.4/74 4.5/54 5.3/37 5.1/58

Vietnam 3.3/112 3.2/104 3.0/52 3.7/88 4.0/87 4.2/88

Source: GCR 2014

22

Page 23: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Quality of Infrastructure (2006) 1=lowest; 7=highest; /Rank out of 125

Overall Roads Railway Power Air Electricity

Bangladesh 2.3/103 3.1/72 2.3/68 2.4/98 2.5/120 1.6/121 China 3.4/65 4.0/45 3.8/33 3.7/55 3.7/89 3.9/79

India 3.3/69 3.2/66 4.7/21 3.5/61 5.1/46 3.1/97 Indonesia 2.5/96 2.1/110 2.4/64 2.4/97 4.1/73 3.5/90

Japan 6.3/8 6.1/8 6.6/2 6.0/8 6.4/8 6.9/3 Korea 5.1/29 5.2/25 5.2/13 5.2/27 5.5/31 6.1/24 Malaysia 5.7/19 5.7/15 5.0/17 5.8/13 6.0/16 5.8/33

Thailand 5.0/30 5.0/28 3.6/40 4.7/37 5.5/31 5.5/39 Vietnam 2.6/91 2.5/91 2.2/70 2.7/89 3.8/82 3.5/88

World Average 3.8 3.7 2.9 3.7 4.5 4.5 Switzerland 6.7/1 6.8/1

Singapore 6.6/2 6.7/1 5.7/9 6.9/1 6.9/1 6.6/11 Hong Kong 6.4/5 6.3/6 6.3/5 6.6/3 6.7/3 6.7/8

Emerging Developing Economies 2.8 Advanced Economies 5.5 Source: GCR 2006-7

23

Page 24: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Quality of Electricity Supply 1=lowest; 7=highest; /Rank out of 144 in 2014; 125 in 2006

2014 2006

Bangladesh 2.5/124 1.6/121

China 5.2/56 3.9/79

India 3.4/103 3.1/97

Indonesia 4.3/84 3.5/90

Japan 6.3/25 6.9/3

Korea 5.5/44 6.1/24

Malaysia 5.7/39 5.8/33

Thailand 5.1/58 5.5/39

Vietnam 4.2/88 3.5/88

Source: GCR 2014, GCR 2006-07

24

Page 25: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Bangladesh

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Quality of Electricity Supply 1=lowest; 7=highest; /Rank out of 144 in 2014; 125 in 2006

2014 2006

Page 26: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

1 2 4 5 9

20 23

64 72

76

90

112

130

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Ran

k o

ut

of

14

4

Profile of Country Ranking 2014: Overall Quality of Infrastructure)

Source: WEF, GCR, 2014-2015

26

Page 27: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

27

2.47

3.32

3.07

3.01

4.02

3.52

3.48

3.31

2.89

4.19

4.00

4.02

2.56

3.53

3.08

3.08

3.91

3.67

3.59

3.43

3.15

4.00

3.83

3.84

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00

Bangladesh

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Singapore

Hong Kong

Switzerland

2007 2014

Logistics Performance Index 1=low; 5=high

Source: World Bank

Page 28: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Roads

Road Network (km)

Roads Paved as % of Total Roads

Road Density (km of road per

square km of land area)

Roads Goods

Transported million tons per

km

Passengers Carried million passengers per

km

Bangladesh 239,226 10 166

China 4,106,387 64 43 5,137,474 1,676,025

India 4,690,342 54 143 1,106,500

Indonesia 496,607 57 26

Japan 339,038 76 90 254,078 898,720

Korea 105,931 80 106 12,545 112,910

Malaysia 155,427 81 47

Thailand 180,053 98 35

Vietnam 160,089 48 48

Source: www.factfish.com/statisticcs/

28

Page 29: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

29

0

5,00,000

10,00,000

15,00,000

20,00,000

25,00,000

30,00,000

35,00,000

40,00,000

45,00,000

50,00,000

Ban

glad

esh

Ch

ina

Ind

iaIn

do

nes

iaJa

pan

Ko

rea

Mal

aysi

aTh

aila

nd

Vie

tnam

Road Network (km)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Ban

glad

esh

Ch

ina

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Jap

an

Ko

rea

Mal

aysi

a

Thai

lan

d

Vie

tnam

Roads Paved as % of Total Road

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Ban

glad

esh

Ch

ina

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esia

Jap

an

Ko

rea

Mal

aysi

a

Thai

lan

d

Vie

tnam

Road Density (km of road per square km of

land area)

Page 30: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Railways

Total Route (km)

Goods Transported

(million tons per km)

Passengers Carried (million passengers per

km)

Bangladesh 2,835 710 7,305

China 66,298 2,518,310 795,639

India 64,460 625,723 978,508

Indonesia 4,684 7,166 20,283

Japan 20,140 20,255 244,591

Korea 3,650 9,996 21,603

Malaysia 2,250 3,071 3,293

Thailand 5,327 2,455 7,504

Vietnam 2,347 3,959 4,558

Source: World Bank, 2012

30

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Railways - Total Route (km)

Page 31: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Electric Power

Access to Electricity (%) Electricity Consumption (kwh/capita)

total rural urban

Bangladesh 55.2 42.5 88.0 247.4

China 99.7 98.0 100.0 2943.7

India 75.0 66.9 93.1 641.3

Indonesia 94.2 89.4 98.0 634.5

Japan 100.0 100.0 100.0 8337.1

Korea 93.3 90.5 93.9 9744.0

Malaysia 99.3 98.0 99.8 4135.0

Thailand 99.7 97.0 100.0 2335.0

Vietnam 96.0 94.9 98.5 1034.0

Source: World Bank Database, 2012

31

Page 32: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

32

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Access to Electricity (%)

0.0

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

10000.0

12000.0

Electricity Consumption (kwh/capita)

Page 33: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Communications

Mobile Telephone Subscriptions per

100 population (1) Internet Users per 100 population (2)

Bangladesh 67.1/128 6.5

China 88.7/108 45.8

India 70.8/121 15.1

Indonesia 121.5/54 15.8

Japan 115.2/64 86.3

Korea 111.0/72 84.8

Malaysia 144.7/30 67.0

Thailand 138/34 28.9

Vietnam 130.9/42 43.9

1) Source: GCR 2014-2015 2) Source: World Bank Data

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Internet Users per 100 population

Page 34: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Social Infrastructure Indicators

Hospital beds (per 1000 population) (1)

Population with access to improved water source (%)

(2)

Population with access to improved sanitation (2012)

(%) (3)

2011 2012 2012

Bangladesh 0.6 85 57

China 3.8 92 65

India 0.7 93 36

Indonesia 0.9 85 59

Japan 13.7 100 100

Korea 10.3 98 100

Malaysia 1.9 100 96

Thailand 2.1 96 93

Vietnam 2.0 95 75

1) Source: The World Fact Book www.cia.gov 2) and 3) Source: World Bank Data

34

Page 35: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

35

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Bangladesh China India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Thailand Vietnam

Hospital beds (per 1000 population, 2011) Population with acccess to improved water source (2012) (%)

Population with access to improved sanitation (2012) (%)

Social Infrastructure Indicators

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• Huge differences across Asia . While Hong Kong (1), Singapore (2), Japan (6) , Korea (14) rank among the top 15 countries ( USA 12) , Myanmar, Nepal and Timor Leste are among the bottom 15.

• There have been significant improvements in many places, most notably PRC, over the last 10 years but a major infrastrutcure deficit both in quantity and quality still remains.

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• India’s roads are congested and of poor quality: Lane capacity is low - most national highways are two lanes or less. A quarter of all India's highways are congested.

• Rural areas have poor access: Although the rural road network is extensive, some 33 percent of India’s villages do not have access to all-weather roads and remain cut off during the monsoon season.

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• Urban centres are severely congested.

• Ports are congested and inefficient.

38

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• While some Asian countries have far better infrastructure than others, overall, the region remains below the world average in terms of both its quantity and its quality

39

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• As land and labor costs rise in Asia’s coastal regions, investors are

looking to locate production facilities further inland. However, they are hampered by inadequate infrastructure connections, which raise transport costs to and from those areas.

• In the PRC, this realization has led to a shift in infrastructure policy

to give greater weight to hinterland access. Railways, which are particularly suited to transporting bulk commodities, which constitute the greater share of production in inland provinces, have been prioritized.

• The shifting focus to inland regions magnifies the

importance of seamless intermodal connections.

40

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LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

• Improved infrastructure is vital for connecting remote areas and landlocked countries with regional and global markets. The median landlocked country has 55% higher transport costs than the median coastal one.

• Transporting goods over land is around seven times more costly than over a similar distance by sea, and estimates of the elasticity of trade flows with respect to transport costs range from -2 to -3.5

41

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• The 12 landlocked countries in Asia—Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bhutan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao PDR, Mongolia, Nepal, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—are especially disadvantaged.

• Most are 700–1,000 km from the nearest port; four (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) are over 3,000 km from the sea

42

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• Inland transport is particularly slow and expensive in South Asia. It accounts for around 88% of total trade transport costs in the subregion.

• Land border crossings are overcrowded, and greater policy attention to efficiency concerns would reduce delays and monetary costs. Complex border-crossing requirements expand possibilities for corruption and encourage informal trade.

43

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LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

The Urbanization Challenge

• A predominantly rural society in 1970 with just 20 percent, or 442 million people, living in cities and towns

• By 2010 Asia’s urban population was 40 percent of the total—almost 1.6 billion people.

• Coming urbanization avalanche as Asia’s urban population will rise by nearly 1.4 billion over the next 40 years

44

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• The transformation of towns and cities was as uneven as it was rapid, especially living conditions. A very small number of cities were modernizing swiftly.

• Tokyo, Asia’s largest metropolitan area, became a world-class business center. The young tiger economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, Taipei followed urban-oriented economic growth models.

• Korea combined high levels of economic expansion with dramatic replanning in the Seoul capital region.

45

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• Elsewhere in Asia however, cities suffered severe degradation in livability as better employment opportunities in urban areas stimulated an influx of migrant workers that overwhelmed city services.

• Accompanied by an explosive growth of private automobile use and inadequate public transportation infrastructure

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LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

• Migrants poured into often illegal—and now endemic—slum and squatter settlements.

• In most of the larger metropolises of Asia, some 25–30 percent of the population live in in makeshift shacks without basic services of water, drainage, sanitation, or paved streets.

47

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Kolkata and Seoul : a study in contrasts

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LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

Kolkata: • Some 2.5 million people still live on the streets

and in the slums, a figure virtually unchanged from 1970.

• Today, only 66 percent of the population is served by piped water, with service of only 10 hours per day on average.

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• Only 26 percent of the metropolitan population is served by the sewerage system. Inadequate sanitation has considerable economic impact, both through lost workdays and other consequences of ill health.

50

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LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

• The land title/tenancy problems of the bastis (even those that have been upgraded) are still unresolved. While residents cannot be removed, they have no legal rights either.

.

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• Seoul: a different story.

• Although flooded by migrants from rural areas and faced by large-scale illegal squatter settlements, Seoul dealt with its urban settlement problems through an innovative land readjustment program

52

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• A self-financing scheme under which landowners of designated readjustment areas pooled their properties under the control of local authorities.

• The authorities then replanned them, built infrastructure, and returned a smaller but higher value piece of land to the original landowners.

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• Squatters and low-income renters were offered a chance to buy very small plots or to move elsewhere in less expensive rental properties

• Full legal titles were issued for all land parcels

54

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56

Cheonggyecheon Restoration Project

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57

Cheonggyecheon Restoration Project

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Cheonggyecheon Restoration Project

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Cheonggyecheon Restoration Project

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Rural development and urban development are complementary

Small towns and secondary cities provide markets for rural products as well as business and social services for agricultural activities.

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Challenge for policy makers : not how to stop urban growth, but how to manage transition to ensure that both rural and urban areas develop to their potential.

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• Most of Asia’s productive rural land is already in use. It cannot increase to a level sufficient to provide jobs for the larger rural population that would exist in the absence of urbanization. Issue of rural underemployment.

• On average, urban productivity is higher than rural productivity and so offers potential gains both for rural migrants and for national economies.

• PRC has recognized this and has adopted an urbanization strategy to absorb surplus labor from rural areas into urban areas. However, PRC’s experience has also pointed to the importance of having an effective social policy for migrants.

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Cities of the future

• Asia’s city-centric future implies huge increases in energy consumption and carbon emissions in the absence of a new direction. The region’s long-term competitiveness—and its social stability—could depend in large part on the quality and efficiency of new urban developments.

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• With 84 percent of Asian GDP generated in towns and cities, four major risks to be managed for successful urbanization.

• Growing inequality in cities; unmet expectations of the rapidly emerging middle class; poorly planned infrastructure and land use spiraling into high-cost, high-carbon environments; and consequences of climate change and other natural hazards.

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• Investments in Infrastructure:

• China has consistently invested over 10% ( sometimes even 12-14% ) of its GDP over the past three decades

• Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam 7% +

• India, by contrast, too little, too late. Till about 2005, only about 3-4% of GDP. Increased to 5-6% over the past decade. Twelfth FYP: expected 10%

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Broad Conclusion:

• Asia has invested heavily in infrastructure; enhanced both stock and quality but NOT ENOUGH

• Infrastructure still a very major challenge in Asia

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• Huge Infrastructure Investment needs in Asia:

• About $8 trillion over the next decade

67

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• Financing is not the binding constraint: availability of bankable infrastructure Projects is

• Adequate Preparation of Projects is key

• Public Private Partnerships: adequate risk-return sharing mechanisms

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• Land acquisition, Resettlement, Protection of Rights

• Hardware and software aspects

• Environmental and Social Assessment

• Financial and Economic Viability of Projects

• Issues of Project Implementation and Management

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• The critical role of the Financial Sector: to mobilize Asian savings for Asian infrastructure investments and also to enhance inclusion

70

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• Asians are significant savers ( about 30% plus) and has huge unmet demands for financing ( for infrastructure , for example )

• But, these savings are not intermediated in Asia; but through capital markets in the advanced economies.

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• Emerging Asia’s finance sector is still largely bank-dominated, with bank assets at 126 percent of GDP, compared with stock market capitalization 69 percent and debt market capitalization 50 percent.

• In the debt market, public debt far outweighed private

debt issuance, indicating heavy private reliance on banking finance.

• In contrast, the debt market size of the EU is almost

200 percent of GDP, of which private debt is over double the size of public debt.

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• Asia intermediates a large part of its savings through markets in the US and Europe, which are generally deeper and still more efficient, robust, and liquid in spite of the Great Recession.

• Asia’s foreign exchange reserves are largely invested in American and European markets.

• Asian economies hold more than $7 trillion or over 75 percent of the world’s foreign exchange reserves (excluding gold), but a very small proportion is invested in Asian capital markets. 73

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• Institutional development in Asia’s non bank sector is much weaker than that in Europe and the US.

• Innovative capital market and insurance skills are still tapped from London or New York.

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• As the world moves away from a single dominant economy, it is only natural that there should be a more representative, multipolar global monetary and financial architecture.

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Financial systems have three important functions:

– efficiently allocate resources;

– improve the payment system by reducing transaction costs; and

– manage risk through better transparency and corporate governance

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• For Asia to succeed, the Asian financial system must evolve in ways that will perform the above functions well while managing the major risks highlighted by the Great Recession, such as shadow banking, highly toxic derivatives, the inequities and systemic externalities, and issues of moral hazard.

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• Asia has a less developed financial system where the state plays too dominant a role in finance and economic life.

• Asian finance must provide long-term risk capital and funds for real sector development without the state having to underwrite huge losses. This is likely to come from major reforms in policies and institutions and greater use of technology and innovation.

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• Specifically, there will have to be a radical transformation of financial and structural policies in tandem, in order to shift the bias that favors low-risk activities and proprietary trading toward the funding of small and medium enterprises (SME) and micro- financing, large-scale infrastructure financing, housing, and environmental protection.

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• Strong equity markets can help improve the corporate governance of companies, particularly state-owned ones, by subjecting them to the market test and discipline.

• Deep and liquid bond and derivatives markets are needed both to finance long-term social infrastructure and to improve monetary and exchange rate management.

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• Despite the high savings accrued from the high demographic endowment, Asia has yet to fully invest in itself.

• One of the top priorities is therefore for Asia to develop a strong asset management and pension fund industry, by allowing greater private participation and by liberalizing portfolio restrictions on the pension fund industry, so as to allow for a larger field of alternative and foreign investments. 81

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• Well-funded pension schemes must be put in place to meet the needs of the aging population in some societies.

• Stronger pension and insurance schemes will in turn require well-developed domestic capital markets in many Asian economies.

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• Development finance and policy-based financial institutions

• Long-term infrastructure projects are constrained by the limited availability of long-term funding and the governance capacity to implement and fund these projects sustainably.

• The irony is that the governance mechanisms, technology and excess savings are all available within Asia, but the financial architecture and institutions have not yet been built and the political will to make things happen has not been established.

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• There is therefore a great opportunity for Asian financial institutions and centers to work together to create the long-term financial market for infrastructure that could be one of the engines of growth in both the Asian real sector and financial market.

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• Creating an enabling environment for infrastructure financing, public–private partnerships and public financial markets.

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Insurance

• Asia is grossly underinsured.

• Asset and liability maturity matching

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• To summarize: • A radical transformation of Asian capital markets is critical.

• Strong equity markets would promote competitiveness and

enhance corporate governance.

• Investment banking and venture capital would help consolidate and restructure many industries with overcapacity and reengineer them to green market needs.

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• Deep and liquid bond and derivatives markets would provide the channel for infrastructure financing.

• Further strengthening of the insurance and pension/social security funds would ensure that risk management and retirement funds are enhanced.

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Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

• Since size, scale, and clustering matter in finance, the regional integration of capital markets in Asia must deepen if Asia is to become a market maker on the same footing as the EU and the US.

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Page 90: ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES · 2015. 5. 15. · ASIA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES The Asian Century : Plausible But Not Pre-ordained ` … a ten seminar series Moderated by Rajat

Rajat M. Nag

LECTURE 3: INFRASTRUCTURE DEFICIT AND TRANSFORMING FINANCE

THANK YOU

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