Sohail Hasnie Principal Energy Specialist, Asian Development Bank November 2015

#1 Solar Power 570 kW (ADB) - 100 MW Samarkand, Uzbekistan

#2 Wangan Aji 50 kW – Indonesia

#3 Rehabilitation of 1200 MW Toktogul Hydropower Plant

1,000,000

CFLs

13 Watt each

13,000,000 watts

13 MW

60,000,000 watts

60 MW

Savings of about

50 MW of equivalent

generation

1,000,000

incandescent

60 Watt each

#4: 1 million CFL is a 50 MW power

station

1 million CFLs cost

$1.5 million

A 50 MW Power Station costs

$50 million

Replacement of

1,000,000 incandescent bulbs

with 1,000,000 CFLs

is same as building a new

50 MW virtual power station

1 million CFLs cost

$1.0 million a 50 MW power station costs**

$50 million

** Plus cost of maintenance, land acquisition, fuel, and emissions

100,000 electric tricycles

Cost $504 million

Savings: $185 million per year

(500,000 liters/ day $500,000 / day)

Avoided CO2 emissions

260,000 tons per year

Electricity Demand

Demand: 6-60 MW peak

Energy: 600,000 MWh

#5

12 #6

3 c/kWh

10 c/kWh

30+ c/kWh

#5

300 MW, 220 kV, 500 km

Cost around $100m Estimated Savings: vs self diesel

generation per year - 2014

1500 GWh

$323 million

#7 Uzbekistan–Afghanistan (completed 2009)

600 MW, 220kV, 175 km (in AFG)

Cost around: $57.43 million

($20.93 million for Tajikistan and

$36.5 million for Afghanistan)

•Estimated Savings against vs self diesel generation per year - 2014

•650 GWh

•$170 million

Tajikistan to Afghanistan (Oct 2011)

#8

Disruption

is coming to the power sector

Source: http://www.kotzendes-einhorn.de/blog/2011-06/the-hard-disk-youve-been-waiting-for-na-endlich/

1986 10,000 KB

$340 /MB

8,000 MB ….$340 per MB

$2.7 million

Solar $1600

Less than$50

3.87 cents per kWh or $38.7 per MWh

100 MW July 2015

Solar PPA prices trending down

Nokia Senator 1982

Battery 9.8 kg Today 112 gm

98% weight reduction!!

Batteries

Source:

Prices are falling …

Battery Life

By 2015,

1,000,000 Electric Vehicle on road By 2022 battery price reduced

from $500/kWh

to $125/ kWh

http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/02/f8/eveverywhere_road_to_success.pdf

$500 per kWh in 2015

$175 per kWh by 2020!

$50 per kWh by 2025??

Source:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-24/cheap-batteries-under-the-hood-add-power-to-cut-fuel-consumption

March 2015

$833 per kWh in 2010 Batteries

• Question?

• How will your world will look like with

$50 / kWh

1000 Wh / kg

Battery: 3 kWh

Motor: 3 kW

Battery: 16 kWh

Motor: 47 kW

Battery: 24 kWh

Motor: 80 kW

Battery: 85 kWh

Motor: 310 kW

Mitsubishi

iMiEV

Nissan

LEAF

Tesla

Model S

E-Trike

Battery: 16 kWh

Battery: 24 kWh

Battery: 85 kWh

Mitsubishi

iMiEV

Nissan

LEAF

Tesla

Model S Battery Price

$500 / kWh

to

$50 /kWh

$38,000

$11,000

$7,000

Battery: 3 kWh

Motor: 3 kW

E-Trike

$1,350

New Technology Training

Tokyo, July 2015 • Solar power generation • Energy efficiency • Electric vehicles • Clean coal technology

SH: CONTEXT / LANDSCAPE Project

No. AFG AZE KAZ KGZ MON PAK TAJ TKM UZB

A. Supply Side

1 Solar powered micro-grid for remote areas P P P

2 Adoption of clean coal technologies in power

generation P P P

3 Improve efficiency of solar industry / establish new

industry P P

4 Solar off-grid to reduce demand from diesel P P P P P

5 Recycling of municipal waste for power generation P P P P P

B. Electric Vehicle and Storage

6 Battery based grid storage for reliability

improvement of renewable energy P P P P

7 Electric vehicles (bus, cars, motorcycles and

scooters) pilot for government fleet and public

transport P P P P P P P

C. Demand Side and Distribution Efficiency

8 Demand responses through smart meters and

diversified tariffs P

9 LEDs for public lighting and offices P P P P

10 Efficiency in distribution efficiency and loss

reduction P P P P P

11 Improve load dispatch systems and distribution

control with SCADA P P P P P

12 Reduce heat losses in office buildings by

retrofitting P P

Proposed Investment Projects by Each Country

(Based on brainstorming session on 29 July in Tokyo and updated on 9 September in KL)

P Proposed in Tokyo on 29 July 2015 and confirmed in KL on 9 September 2015 (AZE and TKM did not participate)

P Proposed on 9 September 2015 in KL; For AZE and TKM, proposed in Tokyo on 29 July 2015

SH: CONTEXT / LANDSCAPE Project

No. AFG AZE KAZ KGZ MON PAK TAJ TKM UZB

B. Electric Vehicle and Storage

7

Electric vehicles (bus, cars, motorcycles and

scooters) pilot for government fleet and public

transport P P P P P P P

Electric bus P P P P P

Electric cars P P P P P

Electric motorcycles P

Electric scooters P

Proposed Investment Projects by Each Country

(Based on brainstorming session on 29 July in Tokyo and updated on 9 September in KL)

P Proposed in Tokyo on 29 July 2015 and confirmed in KL on 9 September 2015 (AZE and TKM did not participate in KL)

P Additional information provided on 9 September 2015 in KL; For AZE and TKM, proposed in Tokyo on 29 July 2015

14 Oct 2010

Solution Space: Electric Vehicles

Range: 35-50 km Speed: 45 km/h NO Air-conditioners: Min. Safety Standards

Price: $4,000 to $6,000 as

$4 per day

5-years Standard Warranty

24 kWh battery

160 km range

3 kWh battery

40 km range

Range: 160 km Speed: 200 km/h Air-conditioners Best Possible Safety Standards

Price: $35,000 3-years or 100,000 km Standard Warranty

Top of the Pyramid

Bottom of the Pyramid

Range results (“Continuous" running)

A1: 72.53 km

A2: 90.33 km

B4: 62.21 km

B7: 41.89 km

22 May 2011

25 Mar 2011

Which one? side by side comparison (5-years of operation)

Cost: $5,000 Cost: $2,000

Electricity: $3,000 Gasoline: $7,000

Drivers save about $2,000over 5 years!!* * In addition e-trike may increase income by $9,000 over the 5-years

Other maintenance: $2,000 Other maintenance: $1,000

Total cost: $11,000 Total cost: $9,000

• Solar Power

• Efficient Appliances including LEDs

• Lithium-ion Battery

12 Volt DC home-system

Off-grid light in the courtyard

PROTOTYPE

PV Solar

Panels LED Bulb

DC

Refrigerator DC LED

TV

DC Fan

Lithium Ion

Battery

KIT Components

250 watt solar panel $150

2 kWh Lithium-ion battery $700

10 LED light bulbs with cables $100

1 DC LED 19” TV $200

1 DC refrigerator $200

2 DC fans $50

Contingency $100

Total: $1,500

•47

Proof of Concept of

an off-grid kit

April 2016 – Nov 2016 Dec 2016

Estimated

50,000

off-grid kits in

Afghanistan

and/or Pakistan

Multi-country demonstration with

estimated

1,500-2,000 off-grid kits

Sept 2015 – March 2016

Proof of Concep

t Scale-up Pilot

Megatrends!!

Electricity: new small business.

Leapfrogging…