Asoka Abeygunawardana Executive Director - Energy Forum

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Energy Security and Low Carbon Development in South Asia. Asoka Abeygunawardana Executive Director - Energy Forum Adviser to the Minister of Power and Energy. South Asia at night (satellite image). SAARC Statement on Climate Change - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Asoka AbeygunawardanaExecutive Director - Energy ForumAdviser to the Minister of Power and EnergyEnergy Security and Low Carbon Development in South AsiaSouth Asia at night (satellite image)GHG Emissions % by sectors in the South AsiaSAARC Statement on Climate Change

Also Mindful that the Member States of SAARC as developing countries face the dual challenge of addressing the negative impacts of climate change and pursuing socio-economic development

Electrification in South Asia in 2009Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010South Asia average but not 24 x 7SAARC Statement on Climate Change

Also Mindful that the Member States of SAARC as developing countries face the dual challenge of addressing the negative impacts of climate change and pursuing socio-economic development

Source: IEACurrent SituationIndia projectionsSource: Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi

Green House Gases- Pakistan20112020203020402050Total GHG Emissions (Mt CO2 eq.)347557104621564621Energy17629556012502730 % Share50.652.953.558.059.1Agriculture1342104088121765 % Share38.737.739.037.738.2Industry2030526175 % Share5.85.45.02.81.6LULUCF1013152035 % Share2.92.31.40.90.8Waste79111316 % Share1.91.61.10.60.3Generation Expansion Plan - Sri Lanka - 2009Who is paying for whom?Energy Supply PolicyAt 15 EUR/Ton & 0.78 kg/kWh

Theoretically Estimated Potential - 3000 times the current need Technically Feasible PotentialEconomically Feasible PotentialEnvironmentally Sound PotentialEnergy Supply Policyfor bridging the gap between the avoided economic cost and avoided financial cost !!!SAARC Statement on Climate Change

Commission a study to explore the feasibility of establishing a SAARC mechanism which would provide capital for projects that promote low-carbon technology and renewable energy;

and a Low-carbon Research and Development Institute in South Asian University;

Thank youLow carbon economy: Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Frugality- Life styles

Carbon EmissionsIndia projectionsSource: Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi

Equity and common but differentiated responsibilities

CO2 emissions peak50% chancepeaking 500 ppm stabilize 450 ppm

India projectionsSource: Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe), New Delhi

Projected Emission Intensity Reduction over 2005 levels Emission intensity reduction of around 24.44 % with determined effort and 34.4 % with aggressive effort compared to 2005.

Emission intensity reduction of around 23.88 % with determined effort and 33.27 % with aggressive effort compared to 2005.

Growth Scenarios:20208% growth9% growthHigher and Lower Ends of the Range2005 EmissionsDEAEDEAEEmission Intensity (grams CO2eq/Rs GDP)56.2142.4736.8742.7937.51(%) Reduction in Emission Intensity24.44%34.40%23.88%33.27%

Voluntary commitment to lower its emission intensity by 20%-25% below the 2005 levels by 2020

98 %100%100%96%90%98%100%88%79%91%86%84%86%90%73%84%82%89%60%60%71%72%44%68%16%10%100%100%100%100%95%98%94%87%90%94%90%90%95%85%90%93%90%75%85%75%85%80%70%50%40%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Pursuing socio-economic development Sri Lanka - 100% electrification by 2012

Comparative Map of India with Thermal Power Plants and level of household electrification Energy Consumption - Pakistan2011-152016-202021-302031-402041-50Energy Consumption(% Growth)3.74.85.25.65.7% Share by SourceGas43.945.445.442.332.9Oil27.524.319.514.914.1Electricity Sources15.716.217.517.916.9Coal11.312.415.722.833.6Other (incl. LPG)1.61.71.92.22.6Source: Shakeel Ahmad Ramay, Sustainable Development Policy Institute, PakistanScenario-2

Clean Coal (gasification) + 15% RE + Clean TransportPursuing socio-economic development Electricity Demand Forecast of Sri Lanka - 2010-2030Annual growth rate of 7-10% Double the demand in every 10 yearsPakistans Renewable Energy Potential(Summary)Wind: 346,000 MWSolar:2.9 Million MWHydro-power:55,000 MWCogeneration/Biomass/W2E:4,000 MWGeothermal: 2,000 MWAlternate FuelsLarge. TBDCO2 Emissions (kTon)Carbon Neutral Growth by 2020SAARC Statement on Climate Change

Emphasizing the overriding importance of socio-economic development and poverty eradication in our region, and convinced that reducing dependence on carbon in economic growth and promoting climate resilience will promote both development and poverty eradication in a sustainable manner;Determined that South Asia should become a world leader in low-carbon technologies and renewable energyCost of renewable energy??Domestic Sector electricity Consumption Distribution in Sri Lanka 2009NorthSouthCommon but differentiated responsibilities

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