Assessing Mali's performance on MDG-2 against two neighboring landlocked countries

Assessing Mali's performance on MDG-2 against

two neighboring landlocked countries

P519 Understanding Poverty Examined Assignment

August 2014 Gael de Oliveira

Contents

1 Introduction 3

1.1 A uniform comparison panel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

1.2 Shocks and Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

1.3 Educational System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2 Ocial Targets and Progress Indicators 6

2.1 Net Enrollment Rate in Primary Education . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

2.1.1 Convergence to target . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

2.1.2 Enrollment Parity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

2.2 Survival rate to last grade of primary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

2.3 Youth literacy rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

3 Challenges and success drivers 11

3.1 Governance and Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

3.1.1 Decentralization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

3.1.2 Financial Barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

3.1.3 Involving Civil Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

3.2 Physical and Human Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

3.2.1 Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

3.2.2 Teaching Sta and Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

3.3 Mitigating Shocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

4 Final Note 16

1 Introduction

Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 2 is meant to achieve Universal Primary

Education throughout the world by the 2015 deadline. In this brieng paper, we

review Mali's progress towards the achievement of MDG-2 over the 2000-2012

time-frame and compare its performance with that of Niger and Burkina Faso.

We start with a broad country overview before we move on to measure

achievement in terms of the ocial MDG indicators. In section 3 we introduce

some proxy indicators and disaggregated data as we review the key policies and

events that promoted or hindered progress towards the achievement of MDG-2.

3

1.1 A uniform comparison panel

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso share similar agro-ecological, socio-economic and

cultural contexts:

A moderate exploitation of mineral resources and a rural economy domi-

nated by the agricultural sector

A landlocked position and a tight interconnection with neighboring coastal

countries, FewsNet (2013)

A shifting Sahelian climate forcing recurrent shocks on a rainfed domi-

nated agricultural sector, OECD (2006)

A young, growing, multi-ethnic and multi-lingual population with varying

degrees of receptiveness towards formal schooling, Meunier (1995), Kane

(1961)

(a) Agroecological zones (from OECD, 2006)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201210

8

6

4

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Year

GD P

pe r

ca p

i t a g

r ow t

h ( a n

n ua l

% )

Burkina Faso Mean GDP growth: 2.7659 % per annumMali Mean GDP growth: 1.8804 % per annumNiger Mean GDP growth: 0.65352 % per annum

(b) GDP per Capita Growth

Indicator Burkina Mali Niger Unit

GDP per capita (2000) 1064$ 1269$ 778$ PPP11

GDP growth (2000-2012) 2.76 1.88 0.65 %

Adult Literacy Rate (2001) 19.3 22.0 14.4 %

HDI Ranking (2013) 181 176 183

Population below 1.25$ PPP line (2000-2012) 44.6 50.43 43.62 %

Figure 1: Country Overview

1.2 Shocks and Trends

Beyond their structural similarities, the three countries experience both corre-

lated and uncorrelated shocks of similar nature:

4

Strongly Correlated Shocks Less Correlated Shocks

Inter-annual Rainfall Variations Internal Political Events

Force regular shocks on the agricultural

sector, the food security of the rural poor and

aect growth of the economy as a whole: most

of the correlated throughs of gure 1b

correspond to bad agricultural years.

Burkina Faso has been stable throughout the

last two decades, while Niger has experienced

recurrent political turmoil and Mali has been

mostly stable despite facing episodic rebellions

(2006, 2011) and political turmoil since 2012

(ICG,2014).

Linkage to Coastal Countries Market Fluctuations of Minerals

Shocks (political, economic) aecting Ivory

Coast have direct eects on Mali and Burkina

Faso

1

while Niger has a tighter connection

with Nigeria and Benin FewNet (2013)

Despite their modest role on the overall

economy, mineral resource exports (Gold for

Mali and Burkina, Uranium for Niger) have a

signicant impact on the state budget.

Still, the three countries have been following dierent growth trends, with

Burkina Faso averaging 2.76% growth and Niger 0.65% over the 2000-2012 anal-

ysis period.

1.3 Educational System

As pointed by Soba (2012) and Hazeman (1987), the three countries formal

education system was shaped by the common history of French colonization and

cooperation: French remains the dominant instruction language while schooling

curricula and cycles retain strong similarities.

Figure 2: Study Cycle Comparison chart by author, data from UNESCO, 2010

Even so, education is administered with dierent levels of centralization and

institutional specialization across the three countries, as discussed in section 3.

5

2 Ocial Targets and Progress Indicators

MDG-2 consists of the single target (2A) of ensuring that by 2015, all children

(boys and girls) will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling ,

UNSD (2012). This translates into clear goals for three indicators

2

:

Indicator Acronym Target Value

Net Enrollment Rate in Primary Education NER 100%

Survival Rate to Last Grade of Primary PSR 100%

Youth (15-24) Literacy YLR 100%

Table 1: MDG-2 Indicator Targets for the 2015 Deadline

As pointed by Easterly (2009) these goals also imply the ambition of perfect

gender parity (GPI=1) which is also part of the indicators for MDG-3 (Gender

Equality).

2.1 Net Enrollment Rate in Primary Education

The Net Enrollment Rate (NER(A))

3

measures the reach of the educational

system, an aspect on which all countries in the panel have made considerable

progress, as shown on gure 3.

Mali started with the highest NERA but its neighbors have progressed faster

and narrowed the enrollment gap. Niger achieved the strongest enrollment

growth in relative terms: its enrollment rate doubled (+127%), starting o

with a NERA 43% lower than that of Mali to only 13% by 2012.

2.1.1 Convergence to target

Despite their remarkable progress none of the three countries is on track to reach

100% NER by 2015. In table 2, we compare estimates for the mean NERA

4

growth over the analysis period with the growth that would have been required

to reach the 2015 target.

2

It should be noted that NER and SR of 100% are explicit goals (coming directly from the

denition of the goal) while a youth literacy rate (YLR) of 100% is an expectable outcome of

a perfectly functionning primary schooling system.

3

NER = ratio of the number of children of ocial primary school age who are enrolled in

primary education to the total population of children of ocial primary school age UNSD

(2012). NER does not account for children who may be enrolled early in primary education

or reach secondary education earlier. To compensate for that, an Adjusted Net Enrollment

Rate (NERA) can be dened and used in the monitoring of MDG-2, as per UNSD (2012).

We use NERA values instead of NER values in the rest of this document.

4

Obtained by classical least squares linear regression on the 2000-2012 dataset. Other

slope estimation techniques such as central or forward nite dierences and cubic polynomial

interpolation would provide for more advanced analyses, but would require smoother or more

frequently sampled datasets.

6

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120

20

40

60

80

100

Year

NE R

A ( %

)

Burkina FasoMaliNiger

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120.5

1

1.5

Year

GP I

of N

E RA


Figure 3: Adjusted Net Enrollment Rate

Indicator Burkina Faso Mali Niger

Actual Slope of NERA curve mNERA 2.9% 2.2% 2.8%

Ideal Slope of NERA curve midealNERA 4.2% 3.3% 4.8%

Slope Ratio (

mNERA/midealNERA) PNERA 0.70 0.66 0.58

Year of NERA Target Attainment YNTA 2022 2023 2026

Table 2: Convergence to NERA Target over 2000-2012 period

Burkina Faso was closest to meeting the deadline with a growth rate of 70%

of what was required to meet the 2015 deadline, and at this pace, it will reach

full enrollment in 2022.

2.1.2 Enrollment Parity

Gender parity remains a challenge with girls enrolling less than boys. Mali

started with a better GPI than it's neighbors but has now been overtaken by

Burkina Faso.

Mali and Burkina are increasing enrollment faster for girls than boys (in

absolute terms) while Niger's NERA is growing at the same pace (2.8%) for

girls and boys alike

5

, as shown in table 3.

Burkina Faso has the most consistent NERA growth in terms of gender, and

5

even so, Niger's GPI on NERA is improving be causing girls started from a much lower

NERA (22.6%) than boys (33.0%) in 2000

7

Indicator Burkina Faso Mali Niger

Actual Slope of NERA curve mNERAMale 2.6% 2.1% 2.8%

Female 3.3% 2.4% 2.8%

Ideal Slope of NERA curve midealNERAMale 3.8% 2.9% 4.5%

Female 4.6% 3.8% 5.2%

Progress Ratio to NERA Target PNERA

Male 0.68 0.72 0.62

Female 0.71 0.62 0.54

Year of NERA Target Attainment YNTA

Male 2022 2021 2024

Female 2021 2024 2028

Table 3: NERA Gender Disaggregation

will reach full enrollment of girls by 2021

6

, shortly before that of boys (2022).

Unless measures in favor of girls enrollment are taken, Mali and Niger will only

reach full girls enrollment 3 and 4 years later (respectively) than for boys, further

delaying the full enrollment target.

2.2 Survival rate to last grade of primary

Enrollment gures provided an indication of the education system's ability to

reach all children in the country, but did not provide any information as to

whether these children actually complete a full cycle of primary schooling. The

Survival Rate

7

is a measure of the educational system's ability to avoid early

drop-out and ensure reasonable promotion rates. In a sense, even though it does

not deal directly with educational outcomes, Survival Rate can be interpreted

as a measure of the educational system's quality

8

.

As pointed by Lewin, 2009, increases in enrollment often pair with survival

rate decreases as attrition increases. It is therefore worth stressing that all three

countries have succeeded in keeping survival rates nearly constant

9

despite the

massive increases in enrollment discussed in section 2.1.

Gender disparities in survival rate are lower than in enrollment, prompting

good hopes that once girls are enrolled into school they get similar chances as

boys. In Burkina Faso the Survival Rate GPI is even slightly above 1, indicating

6

If growth continues at the same average pace! These simple estimations come from the

extrapolation of the linear regression lines to look for their intersects with the target line. More

sophisticated and accurate methods for making predictions exist but would not t within this

assignment.

7

The survival rate, PSR, is dened as the proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach

last grade of primary, UNSD (2012)

8

A high survival rate only means that children entering school stay (or leave and return)

there and are promoted to the next grade, not that they have actually achieved the proposed

educational goals. Still, high survival rates are usually associated with an eective and ecient

system.

9

Even with a slight improvement trend for Burkina Faso! Still, attrition was and remains

excessively high in all three panel counties as can be readily observed from CSGER curves

(not shown in report).

8

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201250

60

70

80

90

100

Year

S ur v

i v al t

o L a

s t G

r ad e

( %)


2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120.5

1

1.5

Year

GP I


Figure 4: Adjusted Net Enrollment Rate

that girls would perform better than boys once they have reached school for the

rst time

10

.

2.3 Youth literacy rate

The Youth (15-24) Literacy Rate YLR focuses on the outcomes of the educa-

tional system. While NERA and PSR characterized the educational system's

reach and internal eciency, YLR focuses on the educational system's eec-

tiveness to realize educational goals

11

. Literacy is a very powerful measure

of an educational system quality, but unfortunately, YLR data is scarce and

irregularly sampled :

Literacy is usually assessed from self declaration and it denition may

10

There are many possible explanations for this phenomenon:

In average, girls that get into school may come from wealthier backgrounds than boys,

and this trend might be reduced as enrollment increases (girls still enroll less than boys

and enrollment inequality is greatest in in poor, rural areas).

Another possible explanation for this trend may lie in the greater opportunity costs

of keeping boys in school, specially considering that Burkina Faso has the highest

correlation between wealth and access to education of all panel countries (see gure 6)

11

Literacy usually includes numeracy and is usually regarded as the fundamental goal of a

primary education system. The Education Orientation Laws of Mali (LOEM, 1999), Niger

(LOSEN, 1998) and Burkina Faso (LOEB, 2002) stress the importance of literacy and numer-

acy alongside with moral (e.g. patriotism, tolerance) and personal development goals (e.g.

creativity, self-esteem).

9

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120

20

40

60

80

100

Year

Y ou t

h L i

t er a

c y R

a te

( %)


2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

Year

GP I

Figure 5: Youth (15-24) Literacy Rate

therefore vary across space, time and inquirer, UNSD (2012)

The key YLR data collection events are large scale population and housing

censuses taking place many years apart from each other

12

, UNSD (2012)

As expected, the data presents inconsistencies, like the 2005 peak

13

in Niger's

YLR, observed on gure 5.

While Mali seems to be progressing faster than its neighbors on this indica-

tor, it would be necessary to have updated data from Burkina Faso to draw any

meaningful conclusions

14

. Gender asymmetries in literacy remain much higher

than in enrollment and no clear improvement trend could be observed yet.

12

Large scale censuses are conducted at the national level about every ten years in panel

countries (e.g. RGPH 1998 and 2009 for Mali, RGPH 1996 and 2006 for Burkina Faso).

Individual censuses are usually regarded as reliable both by donors and the population, but

due to the low sampling frequency, census teams and methods often change between censuses,

thereby hindering trend estimation (source: author's private communications with Malian

mayors).

13

The 2005 adult (15+) literacy rate (not shown here) exhibited the same (proportional)

peak over the three available data points, even though the adult literacy rate should be

moving much slower than the you literacy rate (the 15-24 group is smaller and more exposed

to education than the 15+ group, so it should react much faster in the absence of massive

adult literacy programs!). Furthermore, it that almost a quarter of all literate adults would

forget how to read and write between 2005 and 2012 , which is highly unlikely specially

considering that the literacy rate of the elderly (group with highest relative mortality of the

15+ population) is particularly small!

14

Which would be particularly interesting considering that Burkina Faso was improving

faster than Mali on the two other indicators.

10

3 Challenges and success drivers

3.1 Governance and Policies

3.1.1 Decentralization

Mali has been pursuing broad decentralization policies since the advent of demo-

cratic rule in March 1991, Ba (2006). These policies were implemented in the

administration of education through the Education Law of 1999, LOEM (1999).

Following a dierent approach, Burkina Faso has segmented the administra-

tion of education through dierent, centralized ministries for each cycle (pre-

primary, primary and secondary) until the advent of the new education law in

2006, LOEB (2006) which granted some additional autonomy to local actors in

what remains a fundamentally centralized system.

The impact of Mali's decentralization policies remains to be evaluated, with

some academics raising concerns that decentralization sustained neo-patronization

dynamics and lowered the quality of education, Soba (2012).

3.1.2 Financial Barriers

Mali ocially abolished schooling fees in 1991 in what was then a major symbolic

measure of the new democratic regime. Still Pearce, Fourmy & Kovach (2009),

argue that the transfer of responsibilities from the Central Malian state to local

authorities and communities and has re-established indirect schooling fees. They

further argue that nancial barriers remain a cause of concern for most of the

poor in Mali, which is consistent with gure 6 exhibiting the strong correlation

between income and access to education.

Moving the opposite direction, Burkina Faso started enacting the abolition

of schooling fees and compulsory education progressively and on a regional basis,

through the Education Law of 2006, and subsequent decrees

15

, MENA (2012).

This policy seems meaningful considering that wealth is a stronger access de-

terminant in Burkina Faso than Mali and Niger.

Still, as argued by Lewin (2009), the impact of location (rural or urban) on

access to education should not be overlooked. Indeed the rural urban fracture

seems to be an even stronger than wealth as a determinant of access to education.

3.1.3 Involving Civil Society

Despite their shortcomings, decentralization policies have generally been per-

ceived as a powerful tool to involve civil society, both through prot and non-

prot actors:

Schooling infrastructure was transfered to municipal authorities, in an

attempt to boost nancing of school building construction and mainte-

nance through tripartite Community-Municipality-NGO/Donor partner-

ships, Soba (2012)

15

Decrees, such as MENA, 2012, regularly declare new sets of municipalities where the new

education law, LOEB, 2006 becomes applicable.

11

Burkina (2003) Mali (2006) Niger (2006)0

20

40

60

80

100

Ou t

of

S ch o

o l ( %

)

Proportion of OutofSchool children in primary age by quintile

Burkina (2003) Mali (2006) Niger (2006)0

20

40

60

80

100

Ou t

of

S ch o

o l ( %

)

Proportion of OutofSchool children in primary age by location

Q1 (Poorest)Q2Q3Q4Q5 (Wealthiest)

RuralUrban

Figure 6: Proportion of Out-of-School children per Income Quintile

Supervision tasks were further spread through regional rectorates, to ease

administrative processes

16

:

License private schools

Incorporate community schools into the public system

It is therefore no surprise that Mali has a higher proportion of private education

enrollment (about 39%)

17

than its neighbors (Burkina Faso with 14% and Niger

with 4%). Data on private sector education quality is lacking.

3.2 Physical and Human Investment

3.2.1 Infrastructure

Burkinab schools have the highest equipment levels, as shown on gure 7. It

is tempting to relate Burkina Faso's better schooling infrastructure with its

remarkable progress on gender parity:

16

This armation stems the authors private communications with :Mr. Sangar, owner of

the CFI Torokorobougou vocational school in Bamako and Dr. Guindo, head of Mali's private

catholic education network.

17

These gures also account for the traditional medersa system that is partially supervised

by the state, in accordance with Malian Education Law of 1999, LOEM (1999).

12

Electricity Potable Water Toilets Separate Toilets0

20

40

60

80

100

E qu i

p pe d

Sc h

o ol s

( %)

School Infrastrucutre


Figure 7: School Equipment as of 2011

The existence of separate toilets is often cited as a determinant of girls

access to education

18

, Sommer et al. (2012)

The availability of potable water in school facilities can help release girls

from domestic tasks

Still, other factors may come also into play, rooted in cultural beliefs and each

country's political history

19

.

3.2.2 Teaching Sta and Practices

Despite similar enrollment trends, panel countries are experiencing dierent

workforce growth trends. Pearce, Fourmy & Kovach (2009) suggest that Mali

is not training enough teacher's to respond to current and expected enrollment

growth.

As shown on gure 8, the percentage of trained primary school teacher's is

much smaller in Mali (52%) than Niger (96%) or Burkina Faso (91%). Fur-

thermore, newly recruited teachers are generally less trained than the current

workforce in all panel countries

20

except for Burkina Faso (100%).

Multi-grade classes are most common in Mali, even though these encompass

only a small share of all enrolled children. Pupil/Textbook ratios are large

21

and similar across all three countries.

18

Many West African girls and boys nish their primary schooling at the beginning of

puberty

19

Three historical/social aspects may come into play to explain Burkina Faso's greater

gender parity:

Former president Thomas Sankara conducted a series of public interventions in favor

of women's emancipation during the 1980s

Burkina Faso has a slightly dierent religious mix than its neighbors (specially in the

South of the country)

In Mali and Niger, some parts of society tend to reject formal education as a byproduct

of colonial history, Meunier (1995), Kane (1961), Hazemann (1987)

20

Indicating a degradation trend in teacher training ratio's unless on-the-job training policies

are put into practice in the short term.

21

A small pupil/textbook ratio would indicate greater access to books!

13

% Female % Trained % Trained of newly recruited0

20

40

60

80

100Teaching Workforce

Multigrade Ratio Pupil/BookMath Pupil/BookReading0

0.5

1

1.5Pedagogic Practice Proxy Indicators

BurkinaMaliNiger

Figure 8: Teacher workforce, multi-grade enrollment and pupil/book ratios

(2011)

3.3 Mitigating Shocks

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are exposed to regular food security and political

shocks. Because these events have deep impacts on the livelihoods of the poor,

they also aect school attendance and completion rates in a variety of ways

22

.

We believe that the ways in which countries deal with recurrent crises is also

part of their global strategy towards the MDGs. And, as such propose to end

this section with a short case study on Mali's last crisis and its potential impact

on long term education trends.

The 2011 Malian Crisis: a case study

The dip in Mali's NER between 2011 and 2012 can be attributed to the com-

bined eect of a bad agricultural season, a political crisis and a conict that lead

to large refugee movements and income disruptions

23

, aecting 500000 children

and putting 100000 in risk of leaving school, UNOCHA (2012). Furthermore,

22

For example: reinforcing nancial barriers, displacing populations or causing interruptions

in public education services.

23

Mali has been exposed to recurrent small scale conicts in the north of its territory. Even

so, the last northern crisis was unprecedented in its magnitude and triggered a political crisis

in the south of the country (where most of the population lives), opening the way for a coup

d'Etat in March 2012 and the installation of radical islamist groups in the North of the country.

A UN approved intervention lead by France since January 2013 has attempted to restore the

Malian state authority on most of the territory and promoted new democratic elections.

14

extremist movements forbade mixed classroom's or even school attendance dur-

ing several months in some areas under their control, ICG (2012).

Mali has developed a set of mitigation approaches with the support of inter-

national agencies, through the UNOCHA Education Cluster, jointly managed

by Mali's Ministry of Education and UNICEF. These consisted mostly of the

organization of additional examination venues for displaced children, teacher

redeployment and the creation of a temporary school reinsertion tracks tailored

for displaced children, UNOCHA (2012).

Despite these eorts, the political situation remains volatile and many schools

have yet to open again in the northern part of the country, UNOCHA (2014).

As such, it is not yet clear as to whether the current crisis will aect Mali's long

term progress trends towards the Universal Primary Education goal.

15

4 Final Note

Despite massive increases in enrollment, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso will not

reach the Universal Primary Education goal by 2015. Still, these countries have

achieved considerable progress: survival rates did not degrade signicantly while

massifying education and softening gender disparities.

In 2000, Mali started from a better position to achieve the MDGs than Niger

or Burkina Faso, but it had the slowest progression of the three countries in our

panel during the 2000-2012 analysis period. Niger had the greatest relative

increases in enrollment but remains the country with the lowest enrollment and

survival rates. Burkina Faso stands out for its achievements towards parity, well

equipped school infrastructure and improving teacher training trends.

Literacy rate data and system quality indicators are sparse, but declining

teacher training trends in Mali and Niger may hint towards a degradation of

the educational system's quality.

As a nal note we recall the concerns of Duo (2010) on the possibility

that massication of education comes at the expense of quality, to call for a

greater investigation of education quality trends in Mali, Niger and Burkina

Faso. Indeed, if it was conrmed, declining quality could curb demand for

schooling and hinder long term education growth trends.

16

Data Sources

Unless otherwise cited, all data used and presented in this report comes from the

World Development Indicators (WDI) and Education Statistics (EDStats) World

Bank Databases. The data was processed with custom scripts and a database

engine written in Mathworks Matlab (R) by the author specically for this as-

signment. Interpolations were performed when deemed necessary and acceptable.

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