Assessing the cumulative effect of INDCs Implications of Paris Workshop Spring 2016 Markus Hagemann, 03rd of May 2016, Maryland

Overview

1.  Determining national emission pathways

2.  Aggregating to global emission pathways

3.  Moving forward

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Assessing national pathways 1 – Current Policy Scenarios

Aspect Varia,ons/Examples Challengesinquan,fica,on

Whatisimplementedandshouldbeconsidered?

Targetsvs.Policies;implementa?onbarriers

Whattoinclude;mightalsovarylargelybycountry

Quan?fyingpolicieswithoutaquan?ta?vetarget

Pricepolicies(Feed–intarriffs),standards(car,buildings)

Es?mateemissionimpact

Policydiversity ScaMeredpolicies,statevsna?onalpolicies

Requiredetailedanalysis

Separateoutothertrends Fuelpricetrends,markettrends Mighthavenega?veorposi?veimpactonresult6/28/16 3

Assessing national pathways 2 – Pledges/ INDCs

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Aspect Varia,ons/Examples Challengesinquan,fica,on Relevance

Incompletecoverage Sectorsnotcovered Emissiones?matesrangewidely(e.g.interna?onalavia?on)

INDCsmiss8%ofglobalemissions

Uncertainprojec?ons Business-as-usual/referencescenarios,intensity

Whenscenariosundefinedprojec?onsdifferlargely

75INDCs

Non-GHGmetricsintargets REtargets,intensitytargets Datanotprovided 8INDCs(incl.ChinaandIndia)

Landuserelatedemissions Accoun?ngvs.Includedirectly

Unspecifiedaccoun?ngrules

Historicalemissions DifferentGWPs,GTPs;datasources

Sourcesvary,metricstotranslateGHGintoCO2evary

Source:Rogelijetal.Forthcoming

Assessing national pathways 3 – Adequacy - Fairness

" Challenges " Harmonizing studies " Grouping approaches " Defining Ranges

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Aggregating global pathways

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Aspect Varia,ons/Examples Challengesinquan,fica,on

Countrycoverage Varyingcoverageofanalysis CountrieswithoutINDCs,toomanycountriestoquanigy

Samechallengesaswithna?onalINDCS

Source:Rogelijetal.Forthcoming

Aggregating global pathways – extending beyond 2030

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Outlook – INDC ambition

Signs that INDCs of countries covering relevant emissions might overachieve targets

•  Major emitter conservative in INDC – current policies already reach or surpass INDCs(China/ India)

•  Important market trends have surpassed our expectation (RE) – other might follow (Transport)

•  Subnational actions go beyond INDCs but are not accounted yet (see next slide)

•  Co-benefits drive emission reductions at a large scale

HOWEVER small developing countries need significant support to reach INDCs

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Fourther reading/ sources

"   www.Climateactiontracker.org "   Fekete, H., Roelfsema, M., Höhne, N., den Elzen, M., Forsell, N., &

Becerra, S. (2015). Impacts of good practice policies on regional and global greenhouse gas emissions. NewClimate Institute, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

" Rogelj et al paper (forthcoming) Perspective : Paris Agreement climate proposals need boost to keep warming well below 2 ° C

" Oeko Insitute et al. (forthcoming) Non-UNFCCC mitigation initiatives – Project for the German Environmental Agency (UBA)

"   Cronin, C., Menon, S., Monteith, S., Plechaty, D., Hagemann, M., Höhne, N., … Sferra, F. (2015). Faster and Cleaner - Decarbonisation in the power and transport sectors is surpassing predictions and offering hope for limiting warming to 2°C. San Francisco, USA. Retrieved from https://newclimateinstitute.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/faster-cleaner-decarbonization-in-the-power-transport-sectors.pdf

"   Day, T., Höhne, N., & Gonzales, S. (2015). Assessing the missed benefits of countries’ national contributions. Cologne. Retrieved from http://newclimate.org/2015/03/27/indc-cobenefits/

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Thank you for your attention! Contact details:

Markus Hagemann

T +49 (0) 221 99983304

M +1 (416) 632 7728

E m.hagemann@newclimate.org

BACKUP SLIDES

Outlook - How can non-state actors help increase ambiton

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