Assessing the Economic Justification for Government Involvement in Sports

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    Copyright is owned by the Author of the thesis. Permission is given fora copy to be downloaded by an individual for the purpose of research andprivate study only. The thesis may not be reproduced elsewhere without

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    ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION FORGOVERNMENT INVOLVEMENT IN SPORTS

    FACILITIES AND EVENTS IN NEW ZEALAND

    Samuel Andrew Richardson

    2010

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    ABSTRACT

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    DEDICATION

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    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    ABSTRACT............................................. .................................................................................ii

    DEDICATION ........................................................................................................................ iii

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................ .........................................................iv

    TABLE OF CONTENTS.......................................................................................................... v

    TABLES...................................................................................................................................ix

    FIGURES .................................................................................................................................xi

    1 THESIS INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................1

    1.2.1. Internationally Oriented Events Hosted in New Zealand ..............................2

    1.2.2. The Major Events Development Fund....................................................................3

    1.2.3. Facility Construction in New Zealand...................................................................5

    2 LITERATURE REVIEW................................................................................................. 11

    2.2.1. Income Generation ....... ........ ...... ....... ........ ........ ........ ...... ...... ......... ........ ...... ...... ........ 14

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    2.2.2. Job Creation ....... ......... ........ ......... ...... ...... ........ ......... ...... ...... ....... ......... ...... ...... ........ .... 16

    2.2.3. Earnings...... ........ ......... ......... ...... ....... ...... ......... ...... ...... ........ ......... ...... ...... ....... ........ ..... 18

    2.2.5. Real Estate Values ...... ......... ........ ......... ...... ...... ........ ......... ...... ...... ....... ......... ...... ...... . 18

    2.2.6. Mega events ...... ......... ........ ......... ...... ....... ....... ......... ...... ....... ...... ......... ...... ....... ....... .... 19

    2.2.7. Intangibles ....... ........ ......... ......... ...... ...... ........ ......... ...... ...... ....... ......... ...... ...... ........ ...... 22

    2.3.1. Economic Impact Analy sis ....... ....... ........ ...... ...... ........ ......... ......... ...... ....... ....... ...... 25

    2.3.2. Computable General Equilibrium Analysis....... ....... ......... ....... ....... ...... ........ .... 30

    2.3.3. Ex Post Econometric Analysis ....... ......... ........ ...... ...... ........ ......... ......... ...... ....... .... 30

    3 METHODOLOGY............................................................................................................ 39

    3.3.1. Ex Post Analysis of Economic Impacts ............................................................... 43

    3.3.2. Modelling the Strategic Nature of Facility and Event Subsidisation .....45

    3.3.3. Measuring the Consumers Surplus Benefits of Provincial Rugby

    Attendance ...... ........ ........ ....... ...... ........ ........ ....... ...... ....... ........ ...... ...... ......... ........ ...... ...... ....... . 45

    4 WESTPAC STADIUM: THE IMPACT ON THE WELLINGTON REGIONAL

    ECONOMY ............................................................................................................................ 47

    4.2.1. United States................................................................................................................48

    4.2.2. Europe ............................................................................................................................504.2.3. Australia ........................................................................................................................ 51

    4.3.1. The First Five Years: An Evaluation....................................................................57

    4.4.1. Employment Models .................................................................................................. 60

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    4.4.2 Data .................................................................................................................................. 63

    4.5.1. Facility Construction Effects..................................................................................67

    4.5.2. Post Construction Stadium Activity: The First Five Years ..........................70

    5 FACILITY CONSTRUCTION AND THE HOSTING OF INTERNATIONAL EVENTS

    IN NEW ZEALAND: EX POST IMPACTS ON LOCAL ECONOMIES .......................... 75

    5.4.1. Facility Construction Models ................................................................................. 86

    5.4.2. Event Models ................................................................................................................89

    5.4.3. Data.................................................................................................................................98

    5.5.1. The Effect of Facility Construction on Local Economies .......................... 101

    5.5.2. The Effect of International Events on Local Economies........................... 112

    5.5.3. Events, Facilities and Local Economies: Does Location Matter? .......... 118

    6 THE SUBSIDISATION OF EVENTS AND FACILITIES: A GAME THEORY

    APPROACH ............................................. ........................................................................... 129

    6.5.1. Identical Cities.......................................................................................................... 137

    6.5.2. Large City versus Small City................................................................................ 142

    7 INTANGIBLE BENEFITS AND THEIR ROLE IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT

    FUNDING OF SPORTS FACILITIES: A CASE STUDY OF WANGANUI RUGBY ....149

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    7.5.1. Data.............................................................................................................................. 159

    8 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................179

    8.2.1. Major Findings of the Research ......................................................................... 179

    8.2.2. The Sequential Development of Sports Facilities: How the Research

    Informs the Framework.................................................................................................... 182

    8.2.3. Policy Implications ................................................................................................. 184

    REFERENCES.....................................................................................................................190

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    TABLES

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    FIGURES

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    1THESIS INTRODUCTION1.1. INTRODUCTION

    1.2. THE NEW ZEALAND SPORTING LANDSCAPE

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    1.2.1. Internationally Oriented Events Hosted in New Zealand

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    1.2.2. The Major Events Development Fund

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    Figure 1.1: Criteria for Major Events Development Fund Applications

    One Off Benefits

    Legacy Benefits

    Event Capability Benefits

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    1.2.3. Facility Construction in New Zealand

    1.3. RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND QUESTIONS

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    1.4. WESTPAC STADIUM: THE IMPACT ON THE WELLINGTON REGIONAL ECONOMY

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    1.5. FACILITYCONSTRUCTION AND THE HOSTING OF INTERNATIONAL EVENTS IN NEW

    ZEALAND: EX POST IMPACTS ON LOCAL ECONOMIES

    1.6. THE SUBSIDISATION OF EVENTS AND FACILITIES: A GAME THEORYAPPROACH

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    1.7. INTANGIBLE BENEFITS AND THEIR ROLE IN GOVERNMENT FUNDING OF SPORTS

    FACILITIES: A CASE STUDY OF WANGANUI RUGBY

    1.8. THE ORGANISATION OF THE THESIS

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    2LITERATURE REVIEW

    2.1. INTRODUCTION

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    2.2. INDEPENDENT RESEARCHINTO ECONOMIC OUTCOMES OF SPORTS FACILITIES AND

    EVENTS

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    2.2.1. Income Generation

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    2.2.2. Job Creation

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    2.2.3. Earnings

    2.2.5. Real Estate Values

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    2.2.6. Mega events

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    2.2.7. Intangibles

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    2.3. EX ANTE VERSUS EX POSTANALYSIS OF SPORTS FACILITIES AND EVENTS

    2.3.1. Economic Impact Analysis

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    2.3.2. Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

    2.3.3. Ex Post Econometric Analysis

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    2.4. THE ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION FOR GOVERNMENT INVOLVEMENT IN SPORTS FACILITIES

    AND EVENTS: WHAT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED?

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    Figure 2.1: The Psychic Income Paradigm

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    2.5. SUMMARY

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    3METHODOLOGY

    3.1. INTRODUCTION

    3.2CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

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    Figure 3.1: A Conceptual Framework for Facility Development

    Catalyst forChange

    ConstructionStage

    Event(s)Stage

    Legacy Stage

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    3.3. METHODSADOPTED: A BRIEF SUMMARY

    3.3.1. Ex Post Analysis of Economic Impacts

    i t

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    3.3.2. Modelling the Strategic Nature of Facility and Event Subsidisation

    3.3.3. Measuring the Consumers Surplus Benefits of Provincial Rugby

    Attendance

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    4WESTPAC STADIUM:

    THE IMPACT ON THE WELLINGTON

    REGIONAL ECONOMY

    4.1. INTRODUCTION

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    4.2. FACILITIES: THE INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE

    4.2.1. United States

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    4.2.2. Europe

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    4.2.3. Australia

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    4.3. WESTPAC STADIUM: THE CATALYST FOR CHANGE

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    Table 4.1: Allocation of Components Contracts for Regional Stadium (December

    1998)

    Local Area Value of contract work

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    Table 4.2: Annual Attendance at Westpac Stadium, 2000 2009

    Year Attendance

    Figure 4.1: Net Operating Surpluses ($m): Westpac Stadium, 2000 2009

    0.00

    0.50

    1.00

    1.50

    2.00

    2.50

    3.00

    3.50

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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    4.3.1. The First Five Years: An Evaluation

    Table 4.3: Predicted Ex Ante Impacts Versus Estimated Ex Post Impacts

    1996 estimate

    (annual)

    2000 2004

    (average)

    Difference

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    Table 4.4: Estimated Employment Effects on Wellington Region, 2000 2004

    Year Estimated Total

    Employment Effect

    FTE (December

    quarter)

    Percentage of

    employment

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    4.4. MODELS AND DATA

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    4.4.1. Employment Models

    ttttt

    ttt

    eTIMEQTEPAPASTADINT

    RAWELFNZFTEFTE

    7654

    3210 _

    tt

    tttt

    ttt

    eTIMEQ

    TEPAPAPOSTSTADSTADINT

    RAWELFNZFTEFTE

    7

    654

    3210 _

    FTEt t

    FTE_NZt

    LFt

    RAWEt

    INTt

    STADt

    TEPAPAt

    Qt

    POSTSTADt

    TIME

    et

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    POSTSTADt

    FIRST_FIVE_YEARS

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    STADt

    POSTSTADt

    FTE_NZ RAWE LF

    FTE_NZ RAWE

    GFTE_NZ GRAWE LF DLF

    FTE

    INT

    FTE, GFTE_NZ, GRAWE

    d99Q3

    t

    tttt

    ttt

    eQd

    TIMEQTEPAPASTADINT

    DLFGRAWENZGFTEFTE

    399

    _

    8

    7654

    3210

    tt

    tttt

    ttt

    eQdTIMEQTEPAPAPOSTSTADSTADINT

    DLFGRAWENZGFTEFTE

    399

    _

    87

    654

    3210

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    4.4.2 Data

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    Table4.5:Varia

    bleDefinitionsandSummaryS

    tatistics

    Variable

    Defin

    ition

    Info

    share(StatisticsNew

    Zealand)sourcecategory:

    Mean

    Standard

    Deviation

    Minimum

    Maximum

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    Table 4.6: Unit Root Tests for Stationarity

    Variable Trend and

    intercept

    p value

    4.5. RESULTS

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    4.5.1. Facility Construction Effects

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    Table 4.7: Stadium Construction and Employment Estimated Parameters

    Variable Coefficient Prob. Coefficient Prob.

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    4.5.2. Post Construction Stadium Activity: The First Five Years

    POSTSTADt

    FIRST_FIVE_YEARS

    YEAR_1, YEAR_2, YEAR_3,

    YEAR_4 YEAR_5

    GRAWE

    POSTSTADt FIRST_FIVE_YEARS

    STADt

    STAD FIRST_FIVE_YEARS

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    Table 4.8: Post Construction Activity and Employment Estimated Parameters

    Variable Coefficient Prob. Coefficient Prob.

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    YEAR_1 YEAR_5YEAR_1 YEAR_2 YEAR_3

    YEAR_4 YEAR_5

    YEAR_5 YEAR_4

    YEAR_4

    STAD

    YEAR

    STAD YEAR

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    4.6. CONCLUSIONS

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    5FACILITY CONSTRUCTION AND THE HOSTING OF

    INTERNATIONAL EVENTS IN NEW ZEALAND:

    EX POST IMPACTS ON LOCAL ECONOMIES

    5.1. INTRODUCTION

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    5.2. FACILITYDEVELOPMENTS IN NEW ZEALAND

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    Table5.1:StadiumConstructio

    nDetailsintheNorthIsland,N

    ewZealand,19972009.

    City

    Stadium

    TypeofConstruction

    Construction

    period

    Valueofconstruction

    work

    Publicfu

    ndingdetails

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    Table5.2:StadiumConstructio

    nDetailsintheSouthIsland,N

    ewZealand19972009.

    City

    Stadium

    TypeofConstru

    ction

    Year

    opened/upgraded

    Val

    ueofconstruction

    work

    Publicfu

    ndingdetails

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    5.3. THE EVENTS

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    Table 5.3: Sporting Mega Events hosted in New Zealand, 1997 2009

    Event Date(s) of Event Host City

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    Table 5.4: Host cities for 1999 FIFA U 17 Soccer World Championships (Men)

    City Games Hosted

    Table 5.5: Host cities for 2005 British and Irish Lions Tour

    City Games Hosted

    Table 5.6: Host cities for 2008 FIFA U 17 Soccer World Championships (Women)

    City Games Hosted

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    Table 5.7: Economic Impacts of Selected Major New Zealand Sports Events

    Year Event Economic Impact

    (NZ$ million)

    Real GDP

    (production,

    NZ$ million)

    Percent

    of GDP

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    5.4. MODELS AND DATA

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    5.4.1. Facility Construction Models

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    i t

    i t

    t

    t

    t

    t

    t

    t

    i t

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    SHARE_AFF SHARE_MANUF

    SHARE_TTS SHARE_SERV

    NM

    LQ_EMP_CONST

    i

    LD_RRET_SALES

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    FCON_TOTAL

    STAD ARENA MOTOR VELO

    5.4.2. Event Models

    i t

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    Table5.8:Locationspecificdependentandindependentvariables(

    )

    Variable

    Description

    Infometrics

    Industry

    category

    Mean

    Standard

    Deviation

    Minimum

    M

    aximum

    t

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    Table5.9:Facility

    constructionspecificvariable

    s(

    )

    Variable

    Description

    Facility

    type

    Mean

    Standard

    Deviation

    MinimumM

    aximum

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    i t

    i

    t

    t

    t

    t

    t

    t

    t

    t

    t

    t

    EVENTit

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    Table5.10:Locationspe

    cificdependentandindepende

    ntvariables(

    )

    Variable

    Description

    Infometrics

    Industry

    category

    Mean

    Standard

    Deviation

    Minimum

    Maximum

    t

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    Table5.11:Eventspecificvariables(

    )

    Variable(s)

    Description

    Mean

    Standard

    Deviation

    Minimum

    Maximum

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    5.4.3. Data

    Table 5.12: Territorial Local Authorities Used in Model Estimation

    Facility Construction TLAs Event TLAs

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    Table 5.13: Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Panel Unit Root Tests

    Variable Statistic

    (Fisher chi square)

    Prob. Cross sections Obs.

    Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process)

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    5.5. RESULTS

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    5.5.1. The Effect of Facility Construction on Local Economies

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    Table 5.14: Construction Sector E mployment Results Parameter Estimates

    (FCON)

    Equation 5.1: Pooled OLS690 observations

    15 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: EMP_CONST

    Equation 5.1: Panel Least Squares,Cross section and period fixed

    effects690 observations

    15 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: EMP_CONSTWhite diagonal standard errors

    Variable Coefficient p value Coefficient p value

    Test Test statistic P value F Test statistic P value

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    Table 5.15: Construction Sector E mployment Results Parameter Estimates

    (Facility Types)

    Equation 5.1: Pooled OLS690 observations

    15 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: EMP_CONST

    Equation 5.1:Panel Least Squares,Cross section and period fixed

    effects690 observations

    15 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: EMP_CONSTWhite diagonal standard errors

    Variable Coefficient p value Coefficient p value

    Test Test statistic P value F Test statistic P value

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    Table 5.16: Construction Sector E mployment Results Parameter Estimates

    (Individual Facilities)

    Equation 5.1: Pooled OLS690 observations

    15 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: EMP_CONST

    Equation 5.1: Panel Least Squares,Cross section and period fixed

    effects690 observations

    15 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: EMP_CONSTWhite diagonal standard errors

    Variable Coefficient p value Coefficient p value

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    Test Test statistic P value F Test statistic P value

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    Table 5.17: Real GDP results Parameter Estimates (FCON)

    Equation 5.2: Pooled OLS690 observations

    15 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: GDP

    Equation 5.2: Panel Least Squares,Cross section and period fixed

    effects690 observations

    15 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: GDPWhite diagonal standard errors

    Variable Coefficient p value Coefficient p value

    Test Test statistic P value F Test statistic P value

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    Table 5.18: Real GDP Results Parameter Estimates (Facility Types)

    Equation 5.2: Pooled OLS690 observations

    15 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: GDP

    Equation 2: Panel Least Squares,Cross section and period fixed

    effects690 observations

    15 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: GDPWhite diagonal standard errors

    Variable Coefficient p value Coefficient p value

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    Test Test statistic P value F Test statistic P value

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    Table 5.19: Real GDP Results Parameter Estimates (Individual Facilities)

    Equation 5.2: Pooled OLS690 observations

    15 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: GDP

    Equation 5.2: Panel Least Squares,Cross section and period fixed

    effects690 observations

    15 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: GDPWhite diagonal standard errors

    Variable Coefficient p value Coefficient p value

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    Test Test statistic P value F Test statistic P value

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    5.5.2. The Effect of International Events on Local Economies

    Table 5.20: Accommodation, Cafs and Restaurants Employment Results

    Parameter Estimates (Events)

    Equation 5.4: Pooled OLS736 observations

    16 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: EMP_ACR

    Equation 5.4: Panel Least Squares,Cross section and period fixed

    effects736 observations

    16 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: EMP_ACR

    Variable Coefficient p value Coefficient p value

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    Test Test statistic P value F Test statistic P value

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    Table 5.21: GDP Results Parameter Estimates (Events)

    Equation 5.5: Pooled OLS736 observations

    16 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: GDP

    Equation 5.5: Panel Least Squares,Cross section and period fixed

    effects736 observations

    16 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: GDP

    Variable Coefficient p value Coefficient p value

    Test Test statistic P value F Test statistic P value

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    5.5.3. Events, Facilities and Local Economies: Does Location Matter?

    j i t

    X_DIST

    X

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    Table 5.22: Accommodation, Cafs and Restaurants Employment Results

    Parameter Estimates (Distance Decay)

    Equation 5.6: Pooled OLS736 observations

    16 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46Dependent variable: EMP_ACR

    Equation 5.6: Panel Least Squares,Cross section & period fixed

    effects736 observations16 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: EMP_ACR

    Variable Coefficient p value Coefficient p value

    Test Test statistic P value F Test statistic P value

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    Table 5.23: GDP results Parameter Estimates (Distance Decay)

    Equation 5.7: Pooled OLS736 observations

    16 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: GDP

    Equation 5.7: Panel Least Squares,Cross section and period fixed

    effects736 observations

    16 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: GDP

    Variable Coefficient p value Coefficient p value

    Test Test statistic P value F Test statistic P value

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    X_CAP

    X_DIST*CAP

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    Table 5.24: Accommodation, Cafs and Restaurants Employment Results

    Parameter Estimates (Amended Distance Decay)

    Equation 5.6: Pooled OLS736 observations

    16 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: EMP_ACR

    Equation 5.6: Panel Least Squares,Cross section & period fixed

    effects736 observations

    16 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: EMP_ACR

    Variable Coefficient p value Coefficient p value

    Test Test statistic P value F Test statistic P value

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    Table 5.25: GDP Results Parameter Estimates (Amended Distance Decay)

    Equation 5.7: Pooled OLS736 observations

    16 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: GDP

    Equation 5.7: Panel Least Squares,Cross section & period fixed

    effects736 observations

    16 cross sectional unitsTime series length = 46

    Dependent variable: GDP

    Variable Coefficient p value Coefficient p value

    Test Test statistic P value F Test statistic P value

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    Table 5.26: Effective Distance Parameter Estimates and Critical Capacities

    Model Event Effective Distance Coefficient Cr itical Facilit y Capacity

    (positive economic impact)

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    5.6. CONCLUSIONS

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    6THE SUBSIDISATION OF EVENTS AND FACILITIES:

    A GAME THEORY APPROACH

    6.1. INTRODUCTION

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    6.2. BACKGROUND

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    6.3. LITERATURE REVIEW

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    6.4THEORETICAL MODEL

    x y

    E

    x

    ),( , xyxxx AEEBB

    Ex Ey x y Ax x

    Ex Ax

    x Ey

    ),(),,(xxxxyxxx

    AEIBAEETBB

    TB

    IB

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    x

    Cx y x Sx

    x

    Cx

    )(),( xxxxxx ESAECC

    Cx Sx.

    )](),([),(),,( xxxxxxxxxyxxx ESEACAEIBAEETBNB

    )]()([),(),,( yyyyyyyyyxyyy ESEACAEIBAEETBNB

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    Figure 6.1: Net Benefits of Event Hosting

    y

    x x: IBx Sx, y: IBy Sy x: TBy + IBx Sx, y: TBy

    x: TBx, y: TBx + IBy Sy x y

    Ex Ey

    y

    x

    x

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    x

    y

    6.5. ESTABLISHING THRESHOLDS FOR SUBSIDISATION

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    x y Ax Ay x y Ax

    Ay

    6.5.1. Identical Cities

    Lets call them Auckland

    and Wellington)

    without a Wellington

    race

    meaning that the resulting effect on Wellington is a

    loss of $10m in tangible benefits without an

    Auckland race

    with the resulting effect on

    Auckland being a loss of $10m in tangible benefits Up to this point, we can think

    of this example as a zero sum game

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    which implies that there is a negative net benefit associated with not hosting

    the event of 20% of the citys tangible benefits

    that is, $10m $8m

    Figure 6.2: Net Benefits without a Subsidy (Lallys Example)

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    Figure 6.3: Net Benefits with a $6m Subsidy (Lallys Example)

    Figure 6.4: Net Benefits with an $11m Subsidy (Lallys Example)

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    Figure 6.5: Net Benefits with a $13m Subsidy (Lallys Example)

    awAA w a

    aw TBTB

    0aw IBIB

    a w

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    aw TBS 1)(a

    wwa NBSTB 1)(a

    ww NBS 0)(a

    aa TBS 1)(w

    aaa NBSTB 1)(w

    aa NBS 0)(w

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    6.5.2. Large City versus Small City

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    Figure 6.6: Net benefits without a Subsidy (Large (A) vs Small (W) city)

    Figure 6.7: Net Benefits with an $8m Subsidy (Large [A] vs Small [W] City)

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    Figure 6.8: Net Benefits with a $15m Subsidy (Large [A] vs Small [W] City)

    Figure 6.9: Net Benefits with a $25m Subsidy (Large [A] vs Small [W] City)

    awAA

    awTBTB 0

    awIBIB

    SSS aw

    wTBS0 1)(,1)( wa

    aw NBSTB 1)(,1)( wa

    aa TBSNB 1)(,1)( wa

    wa NBSTB 1)(,0)( wa

    wNBS 0)(,0)( wa

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    6.5. CONCLUSIONS

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    7INTANGIBLE BENEFITS AND THEIR ROLE INLOCAL GOVERNMENT FUNDING OF SPORTS

    FACILITIES: A CASE STUDY OF WANGANUI RUGBY

    7.1. INTRODUCTION

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    7.3. A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE NATIONAL PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIP

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    7.4. LITERATURE REVIEW

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    7.5. MODEL AND DATA

    it

    CSC

    itit

    CP

    iti

    E

    itiit eXXXATT

    itATT i t

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    Figure 7.1: Average Attendance at Games in Wanganui, 1972 1994

    E

    itX REAL_PRICE

    DIST_HRS

    WMRU SKY

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    1972

    1973

    1974

    1975

    1976

    1977

    1978

    1979

    1980

    1981

    1982

    1983

    1984

    1985

    1986

    1987

    1988

    1989

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

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    WMRU

    SKY

    CP

    itX

    ATTi 1,t

    CSC

    itX

    TARA

    DIV2NI DIV2 DIV3 INT_T1 DIV3SF

    DIV3F PROMPY RELPY

    PRENPC NPC1 NPC2 NPC3 NPC4

    i t

    i t

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    TARA

    Figure 7.2: Attendance at Wanganui vs Taranaki (Queens Birthday) Games

    DIV2NI, DIV2 DIV3

    PROMPY RELPY

    DIV3SF DIV3F

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    7000

    8000

    Jun

    72

    Jun

    75

    Jun

    78

    Jun

    81

    Jun

    84

    Jun

    87

    Jun

    90

    Jun

    93

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    INT_T1

    PRENPC NPC1 NPC2 NPC3 NPC4

    PRENPC NPC

    TIME

    GAME

    MWK

    itttttt

    tttttit

    itititititit

    tiitititit

    eMWKGAMETIMESKYNPC

    NPCNPCPRENPCRELPYPROMPYFDIV

    SFDIVTINTDIVDIVNIDIVTARA

    ATTWMRUHRSDISTPRICEREALATT

    1716151413

    121110987

    654321

    1,13210

    4

    313

    31_322

    __

    NPC2

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    7.5.1. Data

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    Table7.1:Variables

    ,Definitions,SourceandSumm

    aryStatistics

    Variable

    Definition

    DataSource

    Mean

    Standard

    Deviation

    Minim

    um

    Maximum

    ATT

    REAL_PRICE

    DIST

    _HRS

    WMRU

    TARA

    INT_T1

    PRENPC

    NPC1

    REAL_PRICE

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    NPC2

    NPC3

    NPC4

    DIV2NI

    DIV2

    DIV3

    DIV3SF

    DIV3F

    PROMPY

    RELPY

    SKY

    MWK

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    Table 7.2: Unit Root Tests of Time Series Variables

    Variable H0: Constant, Trend

    Test Statistic

    p value

    ATT

    REAL_PRICE

    DIST_HRS

    WMRU

    D_WMRU

    .

    ATT REAL_PRICE DIST_HRS WMRU

    WMRU

    D_WMRU

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    7.6. RESULTS

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    Table7.3:ModelEstimation:Attendanc

    e

    Model7.1(Linear):

    DependentVariable:ATT

    Method:LeastSquares

    Includedobservations:169

    afteradjustments

    (WhiteHeteroskedasticity

    ConsistentStandardErrors

    &Covariance)

    Model7.2(LinLog):

    De

    pendentVariable:ATT

    M

    ethod:LeastSquares

    Includedobservations:169

    afteradjustments

    (WhiteHeteroskedasticity

    Con

    sistentStandardErrors

    &Covariance)

    Model7.3(SemiLog):

    DependentVariable:

    LOG_A

    TT

    Method:LeastSquares

    Included

    observations:169

    afteradjustments

    (WhiteH

    eteroskedasticity

    ConsistentStandardErrors

    &Covariance)

    Model7.4(LogLog):

    DependentVariable:

    LOG_ATT

    Method:LtSquares

    Includedobservations:169

    afteradju

    stments

    (WhiteHetero

    skedasticity

    ConsistentSta

    ndardErrors

    &Covar

    iance)

    Variable

    Coefficient

    pvalue

    Coefficient

    pvalue

    Coefficient

    pvalue

    Coefficient

    pvalue

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    Test

    Test

    statistic

    Pvalue

    Test

    statistic

    Pvalue

    Test

    statistic

    Pvalue

    Test

    statistic

    Pvalue

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    Table 7.4: Estimated Price Elasticities of Demand31

    Model 7.1(Linear)

    Model 7.2(Lin Log)

    Model 7.3(Semi Log)

    Model 7.4(Log Log)

    (REAL_PRICE)/ATT /ATT (REAL_PRICE)

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    PRENPC

    NPC1 PRENPC

    NPC3

    NPC4

    DIV2NI

    DIV2

    DIV3

    DIV2

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    7.7. MEASUREMENT OF CONSUMER SURPLUS AS ECONOMIC BENEFITS

    1

    2

    2

    ATTCS

    linear

    ))(_(

    ))(max()_max(

    1

    1log

    ATTPRICEREAL

    ATTPRICEREALCSlin

    1

    log

    ATTCSsemi

    )]_(

    ))(max()_[(max(1

    1

    1

    loglog

    ATTPRICEREAL

    ATTPRICEREALCS11

    1

    )_(

    1

    loglog

    ATTPRICEREALCS 11

    1REAL_PRICE

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    Table 7.5: Estimates of Consumer Surplus Benefits Generated by Wanganui

    Representative Rugby (in 1999 dollars)

    Season

    Model 7.1

    (Linear)

    ($)

    Model 7.2

    (Lin Log)

    ($)

    Model 7.3

    (Semi Log)

    ($)

    Model 7.4

    (Log Log)

    ($)

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    Table 7.6: Present Values of Consumer Surplus Benefits Generated by Wanganui

    Representative Rugby (Average Season Estimates, in 1999 dollars)

    Time (years)

    Discount Rate (%) 20 30

    2

    4

    6

    10

    15

    20

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    7.8. CONCLUSIONS

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    8CONCLUSION8.1. INTRODUCTION

    8.2. MAJOR FINDINGS AND POLICYIMPLICATIONS OF THE RESEARCH

    8.2.1. Major Findings of the Research

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    8.2.2. The Sequential Development of Sports Facilities: How the Research

    Informs the Framework

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    8.2.3. Policy Implications

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    8.3. CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE RESEARCH

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    8.4. LIMITATIONS OF THE RESEARCH

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    8.5. SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

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