2015 DELAWARE ESTUARY SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENT SUMMIT,

JANUARY 26TH, 2015 PETER MURDOCH, SCIENCE ADVISOR,

RACHEL MUIR, SCIENCE ADVISOR, U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

Assessing the Effect of Hurricane Sandy Projects on Resilience in the Delaware River

Watershed -- (a status update)

“Resilience” – What does it mean?

2

“Resistance” – not the same!

Resilience -- Ecological and Social Meaning & Context Ecological -- measure of the persistence of systems and of their ability to absorb change and disturbance and still maintain the same relationships between populations or state variables (Hollings,1973) Social --The ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political, and environmental change (Alger, 2000). Policy-directed -- “… the ability to anticipate, prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and withstand, respond to and recover rapidly from disruptions.” (Executive Order 13653, November 1, 2012)

3

Resilience Defined -- II

4

Ecosystem response to perturbation: y axis = resilience, x axis = perturbation:

Hurricane Sandy DOI Response – A Calendar • October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy makes landfall, Atlantic City, NJ --

Nearly 70 national parks and dozens of wildlife refuges damaged:; • March 19, 2013 The Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013,

appropriated $786.7 million for DOI to rebuild and repair its assets and make strategic investments in future coastal resilience;

• May 7, 2013, DOI released $475.25 million for 234 projects; • August 12, 2013, DOI selected the National Fish and Wildlife

Foundation (NFWF) to administer the $100 million for the Hurricane Sandy Coastal Resiliency Competitive Grant Program, funding 53 projects;

• June 16, 2014, DOI announces projects selected for the Coastal Resiliency Competitive Grant Program

• 2015 – Decisions on use of remaining funds (monitoring, metrics development, resilience assessment)

• 2016 – Majority of Projects due for completion.

5

Federal-Wide Goal:

“Quantifying benefits of resilience projects and calculating resilience project return on investment in order to better inform future public spending”

Federal Disaster Recovery Coordination Workplan, 2013

DOI Metrics Expert Group

Challenges in Measuring Resilience

• Projects already started • Need metrics to detect short-term change in resilience (for key

coastal features, subregions, air/water/land processes?) • Need a baseline of data for detecting change– also fiscally

impossible unless leverage capabilities of multiple partners; • Need better-developed socio-economic metrics of coastal

resilience; • Need a common, collaborative data-management and sharing

strategy (shared protocols); • Detection of changes in resilience take time – need strategies

for early detection and long-term monitoring.

7

The DOI Metrics Expert Group (A team of scientists and socio-economists charged by DOI

to scope an assessment of changes in coastal resilience resulting from DOI-sponsored projects)

Currently in review:

Recommendations for assessing improvements in coastal resilience from projects within the DOI Hurricane Sandy

Mitigation and Resiliency Program

DOI Metrics Expert Group

Assessing Resilience– the DOI Metrics Strategy Task 1: Select core metrics for

the restoration and research projects (for 140 restoration and science projects );

Task 2: Determine data and information gaps:

Task 3: Establish baseline conditions for individual projects (rapid data collection as needed)

Task 4: Design and complete the regional assessment

Task 5: Design data management strategy and long-term monitoring for status and trends

Geographic Example: Resilience of Jamaica Bay

- Determine: • Key coastal features, socio-

economic factors & stressors; • Core metrics for wetlands,

communities, beach/dune, etc); • Gaps in must be filled to assess

changes in resilience; - Analyze: • Nest project measurements in

regional models; • Use pre-post measurements &

model applications to define & detect change in resilience.

• Track future changes

10

Restoration plan within Milford Neck Conservation area: modeled under current conditions and with potential restoration alternatives

Restoring the beach and dune system that protects Mispillion Harbor

DE Bayshore Coastal Resiliency: Mispillion to Milford Neck (43281)

One of 7 NFWF projects in Delaware Bay Sub-region,

and many regional projects that include the Delaware

sub-region

Entire proposed network will consist of approximately 1,050 sites: − 76 non-USGS stations

− 530 temporary storm-tide sensors

− 117 coastal stations/tidal streams

− 85 rapid-deployment gages

− 32 tide crest stage gages

− 45 tide gages

− 112 surveyed reference points

− 63 temporary barometric-pressure sensors

Pre-emptive network- brackets pre-installed Northeast Coast from North Carolina to Maine Nor’easters and tropical storms of varying

magnitude Data distributed through an online mapper”

Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) Network Topical Example:

Our Short-term Ambitions… • Fill baseline data and study gaps for immediate action

on projects underway; • Seamless measurements and data management with

other resilience assessment efforts; • Link current or historical data where possible for early

trends detection; • Comparison data among projects with similar goals; • Conduct an integrated, resilience assessment.

13

Our Wish List

• Secure additional funds for multi-scale, interdisciplinary pre- and post-project monitoring;

• Begin to apply efficient monitoring strategies, using alternative accelerated-assessment methods.

• Track/anticipate resilience change across the region

14

How do we build a Multi-scale Data Framework?

Science within an organizational framework

Based on CENR Framework for Environmental Monitoring and Research, 1997

Multiple issues through common

measurements

Fine Scale Data which can help – Urban Waters Federal Partnership

Baltimore Partnership: http://water.bniajfi.org/map/

Honestly … This won’t be easy

17

For More Infromation

18

Contact: Peter Murdoch, pmurdoch@usgs.gov Rachel Muir rmuir@usgs.gov

19

World Meteorological Organization , 1997(GCOS, GTOS, IOOS) Global Hierarchical Observing Strategy (GHOST)

Integration across programs, disciplines, space, and time

21

Proposed network consists of about 1,000 sites: 62 Non-USGS Stations 103 USGS Long-Term Coastal/Tidal Stream Stations 60 Temporary Rapid-Deployment Gage Locations 566 Temporary Storm-Tide Sensor Locations 193 Temporary Wave-Height Sensor Locations 104 Temporary Barometric-Pressure Sensor Locations Not all stations will be fitted with sensors for any one storm.

SWaTH Network Design and Development

DOI Metrics Expert Group Science Project Case Study: Surge, Wave, and Tide

Hydrodynamics Network (SWaTH) • Compile surge metrics

for surge/wave baseline data;

• Document weaknesses of existing models for varied coastal features;

• Nest an enhanced network of sensors in existing tide and surge network from Maine to Virginia.

DOI Metrics Expert Group Science Project Case Study – (continued)

• Apply new data to improve wave and surge models, and real-time data to improve early warning systems;

• Quantify reduction in model uncertainty, early warning enhancements as proof of improved resilience.

DOI Metrics Expert Group DMEG First Products First products completed (past 2 months): • First-cut recommended metrics for measuring resilience in

specific coastal features, • Grouped DOI projects into common categories (geographic

and topical) for assigning metrics and comparing results; • Recommended an assessment strategy (in review); • Recommended a strategy for filling gaps in baseline data and

research required for the assessment; • Recommended a strategy for earliest detection of resilience

improvement from project activity, at multiple scales over time.