Assessing the impact of Welfare Reform

Robert McGregor, January 2014

What is Welfare Reform?• “[The UK Government] are proposing to change forever how the [welfare] system works. Not tinkering

around the edges but a fundamental change from top to bottom. Making it easier to help people into work, fairer to those who pay for the welfare state and continuing to provide unconditional support to those who need it” Iain Duncan Smith, Secretary of State for Work & Pensions

• Expected savings of £18 billion per year (UK)

• Some changes introduced in 2012 or before, significant measures introduced in 2013 and major reforms ahead (Universal Credit, Personal Independence Payments).

• Some household and service demand impacts, but will become more evident 2014 – 2018.

Some of the main features of WR Benefit increases pegged at 1% per annum (rather than inflation

linked) Revised Work Capability Assessment Lone parents available for work as youngest child turns 5 The Benefit Cap Housing Benefit squeeze through the ‘bedroom tax’ and new

measures for claimants in private rented accommodation Changed benefits for disabled people Most benefits drawn together within a new single ‘Universal Credit’

household payment, paid in arrears Main way to apply for benefits will be on-line Tougher sanctions regime for those not complying with benefit

conditions A mandatory UK ‘Work Programme’ for job seekers.

Some of the impacts

Reducing income for some of those on benefits (many already in income poverty or on its margins)

Housing churn and homelessness

Reforms challenging the capabilities of benefit claimants (e.g. on line job search and benefit claims, household budgeting, direct rent payments)

Impacts on health and well being

Greater demands on Council, NHS, third sector services

Who is most adversely affected?

Households without jobs

Lone parents

Disabled people and those in poor health

Large families

Those with chaotic lifestyles

Most significant economic / social impacts in poorest communities with greatest benefit dependency

A question

How do we better assess the cumulative and ‘real’ impacts on households in Fife to inform demand / need for service, and to help us develop preventative responses?

Next steps: a partnership approach

Collaboration over 3 – 4 years between a range of agencies in Fife to:

Get more from administrative data not presently mined (e.g. applications for crisis grants and DHP; demand for food banks, money advice enquiries)

Share experiences of supporting people affecting by the changes and draw from pilot activity across the UK

Provide evidence of the impacts of change on the demand for services

Longitudinal research: commission professional researchers to manage a study to gather information from people affected by the changes

Research approach

Secure ownership from senior Fife Welfare Reform group

Multi-agency steering group

Focus on specific geographies where there are good workers’ forums already established

Led by commissioned professional researchers with role for small numbers of local workers from Council, NHS, third sector trained to support clients to participate

Find effective methods to capture findings and channel through to resource allocation decision making and local service development

Participatory research activity Target perhaps 30 households in each of two geographies, to cover

those most vulnerable to the changes Baseline survey to cover household circumstances, benefit dependency

and awareness of changes supported by local workers Regular survey of participants on changing circumstances and impacts

supported by local workers Consider use of social media to promote more frequent sharing of

benefit circumstances, anxieties and material impacts Regular local worker focus groups (supported by professional

researchers) to discuss and draw out emerging themes In-depth qualitative interviews by researchers with a sample of

participants

Research question areas

People’s experiences of the welfare changes

What the personal impacts have been and in what areas of their lives (e.g. income / debt, housing, health, child welfare, quality of life)

Resilience and actions in the face of those impacts

Consideration of future challenges (e.g. on-line claims) and ability to cope

Experiences of advice and support services, and to ask about the services actually needed to help them navigate through the changes and to mitigate impacts

For more about welfare reform:

go online

fifedirect.org.uk/welfarereform

Call 0345 1400 031

or visit your local office