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 International Journal of Water Sciences  Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania Using the SWAT Model Research Article Alain Lubini 1 and Jan Adamowski 2,*  1 Department of Civil Engineering, Ecole Polytechni que de Montréal, Canada 2 Department of Bioresource Engineering, McGill University, Ste. Anne de Bellevue, Quebec, Canada * Corresponding author E-mail: [email protected] ȱ Received 13 Feb 2013; Accepted 26 Mar 2013 DOI: 10.5772/56453 © 2013 Lubini and Adamowski; licensee InTech. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstractȱ Theȱ Soilȱ andȱ Waterȱ Assessment ȱ Toolȱ (SWAT) ȱ was ȱ usedȱ toȱ exploreȱ the ȱ potential ȱ impactȱ of ȱ fourȱ climateȱ changeȱ scenarios ȱ onȱ discharge ȱ fromȱ the ȱ Simiyuȱ Riverȱ inȱ Tanzania, ȱ locatedȱ inȱ the ȱ Lakeȱ Victoriaȱ watershedȱ inȱ Africa. ȱ The ȱ SWATȱ model ȱ usedȱ inȱ thisȱ studyȱ was ȱ calibratedȱ andȱ verifiedȱ  byȱ comparingȱ model ȱ outputȱ withȱ historic ȱ streamȱ flowȱ dataȱ for ȱ 1973Ȭ1976ȱ as ȱ well ȱ asȱ 1970Ȭ1971.ȱ SWATȱ was ȱ operated ȱ atȱ dailyȱ and ȱ monthlyȱ timeȱ stepsȱ duringȱ  both ȱ calibrationȱ and ȱ verification. ȱ For ȱ the ȱ dailyȬtimeȱ stepȱ verification, ȱ the ȱ modelȱ hadȱ aȱ Nashȱ Sutcliffeȱ coefficient ȱ of ȱ efficiency ȱ (NSE) ȱ of ȱ 0.52ȱ andȱ aȱ correlationȱ coefficient ȱ (R 2 )ȱ of ȱ 0.72.ȱ For ȱ the ȱ monthlyȱ timeȬstepȱ verification, ȱ the ȱ recorded ȱ NSEȱ andȱ R 2 ȱ valuesȱ wereȱ 0.66ȱ andȱ 0.70.ȱ Inȱ developing ȱ climateȱ changeȱ scenarios ȱ withinȱ the ȱ general ȱ patternsȱ definedȱ  byȱ the Intergovernmental ȱ Panel ȱ onȱ Climate ȱ Change, ȱ predictedȱ increases ȱ inȱ CO2ȱ concentrations ȱ wereȱ implemented ȱ withinȱ the ȱ constraints ȱ of ȱ the ȱ models ȱ parameterisation ȱ byȱ raising, ȱ inȱ aȱ seasonally Ȭ specific ȱ manner, ȱ theȱ values ȱ of ȱ two ȱ proxyȱ parameters: ȱ dailyȱ  base line ȱ temperature ȱandȱ precipitation. ȱ Underȱ all ȱ scenarios, ȱ Simiyuȱ Riverȱ discharge ȱ increasedȱ (24Ȭ45%),ȱ showingȱ the ȱ highest ȱ increase ȱ inȱ the ȱ rainyȱ seasonȱ (Marchȱ toȱ May), ȱ withȱ the ȱ greatest ȱ increase ȱ occurringȱ duringȱ the ȱ rainyȱ seasonȱ (Marchȱ toȱ May). ȱ Dischargeȱ was ȱ influenced ȱ toȱ aȱ muchȱ greaterȱ degree ȱ  byȱ increasesȱ inȱ precipitation ȱ rather ȱ thanȱ  byȱ temperature. ȱ The ȱ increase ȱ inȱ riverȱ flowȱ predictedȱ  byȱ the ȱ modelȱ suggests ȱ thatȱ the ȱ potential ȱ increase ȱ inȱ heavyȱ floodȱ damageȱ duringȱ the ȱ rainyȱ seasonȱ will ȱ increase, ȱ whichȱ could, ȱ inȱ turn,ȱ haveȱ significant ȱ adverse ȱ effects ȱ onȱ infrastructure, ȱ humanȱ health, ȱ andȱ the ȱ environment ȱ inȱ the ȱ watershed. ȱ Theȱ SWATȱ predictions ȱ provideȱ anȱ important ȱ insight ȱ intoȱ the ȱ magnitude ȱ ofȱ streamȱ flowȱ changesȱ thatȱ might ȱ occurȱ inȱ the ȱ Simiyuȱ Riverȱ inȱ Tanzaniaȱ as ȱ aȱ result ȱ of ȱ futureȱclimatic ȱchange. ȱ ȱ Keywordsȱ Climateȱ Change,ȱ Modelling,ȱ Riverȱ Flow,ȱ SWAT,ȱSimiyuȱRiver,ȱAfricaȱ ȱ 1 Alain Lubini and Jan Adamowski: Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate C hange Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania Using the SWAT Model www.intechopen.com ARTICLE www.intechopen.com Int. j. water sci., 2013, Vol. 2, 1:2013

Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River Tanzania Using the Swat Model

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