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Southern Hemisphere Forestry Journal 2007, 69(2): 111–116Printed in South Africa — All rights reserved
Copyright © NISC Pty LtdSOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
FORESTRY JOURNALEISSN 1991–9328
doi: 10.2989/SHFJ.2007.69.2.6.292
Assessment of three-year DBH and height data and genetic gain prediction for five Acacia mearnsii (black wattle) subpopulations
in South Africa using REML/BLUP
SL Beck1*, J de Guisti1, AK Louw1 and MDV Resende2
1 Institute for Commercial Forestry Research, PO Box 100281, Scottsville 3209, South Africa2 Embrapa Florestas, Ministry of Agriculture — National Center for Forestry Research, Caixa Postal 319, CEP 83411-000,
Colombo, PR, Brazil* Corresponding author, e-mail: [email protected]
Introduction
Black wattle (Acacia mearnsii) was historically grown for the
tannins present in the bark, which were primarily used for
tanning leather. As time passed, these vegetable tannins
were replaced with more reliable chemically synthesised
tans. Although there is still a small demand for vegetable
tans from the bark, there is an increasing demand for the
thermosetting industrial adhesives (sold under the brand
name Bondtite) which are used to manufacture a number of
by-products (Dobson and Feely, 2002). In the mid-1980s,
black wattle timber was identified as a source of high-
quality pulp. It was thus decided that the breeding of A.mearnsii (black wattle), within the Tree Improvement
Programme at the Institute for Commercial Forestry
Research (ICFR), Pietermaritzburg, KwaZulu-Natal, change
its emphasis from breeding for improved bark yield and
quality, to improving timber yield and quality while still
maintaining an acceptable bark quality. In 2002, a diversi-
f ied Multiple Population Breeding Strategy was
implemented to cater for these changes (Barnes, 1995;
Dunlop et al., 2003). The main breeding population is held
in six subpopulations, established across different sites in
KwaZulu-Natal, and each subpopulation is determined by
origin of seed. The decision to use subpopulations was
made to keep the untested material separate from the
advanced genetic material. This will prevent dilution of the
genetic gain and ensure that there is sufficient genetic
variation for future advancements (Dunlop et al., 2003). The
differences between the subpopulations will be exploited
through potential crossing between the subpopulations,
when the second generation of subpopulations is estab-
lished. This is the first time that a trial series such as this
has been implemented for black wattle, and for this reason
measurements are being done annually. Age–age correla-
tions can therefore be established and used to see if growth
predictions can be made at an early age, and in this way
increase generation turnover. Restricted Maximum Like-
lihood (REML) and Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP)
are being used to analyse the data to ensure that superior
individuals are accurately identified.
This paper summarises the three-year growth measure-
ments taken from the first five subpopulations and looks at
the genetic gain that can be made through various selection
strategies in order to provide any indication of predicted
improvement at full rotation.
Recent research has shown Acacia mearnsii (black wattle) to be a source of high-quality pulp. This led to a change in the
emphasis in the breeding programme at the Institute for Commercial Forestry Research, from improving bark yield and
quality, to improving timber yield and quality while maintaining an acceptable bark quality. A Multiple Population Breeding
Strategy was implemented to cater for these changes. Six subpopulations were established across different sites in
KwaZulu-Natal and were determined by origin of seed. Five of these subpopulations were established in 2002 and the sixth
one in 2004. Each subpopulation was established as a progeny trial with a breeding seed orchard adjacent to it. The
management of the seed orchards will be determined according to the performance of the families within the progeny trials.
This paper is a summary of the three-year growth measurements taken from the first five subpopulations. The results
showed promising heritability values with respect to genetic gain. These data were then projected to estimate results at full
rotation using appropriate growth models. Results showed that if one selects the top 20 individuals, mean annual increments
(MAIs) of 13.20–19.60m3 ha–1 y–1 can be expected. If one selects the top 20 families, MAIs of 10.60–19.10m3 ha–1 y–1 can be
expected. Growth data will continue to be collected each year. This will allow for continuous assessment of age–age correla-
tions for the various traits being assessed, and will provide an appropriate decision-making tool for selecting individuals for
future generations.
Keywords: heritability, mean annual increment, Multiple Population Breeding Strategy
Materials and methods
Six subpopulations were established across different sites in
KwaZulu-Natal (Table 1). Each are determined by origin of
seed (Table 1), i.e. from open-pollinated historical and current
selections as well as from controlled crosses. The sixth
subpopulation was established two years later than the other
five subpopulations, due to availability of the seed. Each
subpopulation was established as a progeny trial with a
breeding seed orchard (BSO) adjacent to it. The progeny trial
of Subpopulation 1 is a full-sib progeny trial, whereas the
progeny trials of the other five subpopulations are half-sib
progeny trials. The management of the BSOs will be
determined according to the performance of the families
within the progeny trials. The progeny trials were planted as
five-tree line plots, replicated five times, and the BSOs were
planted as single-tree plots, replicated 25 times. Having two
different trial designs at each site will also allow for the
testing of the impact of each design (specifically the aspect of
plot size) on selection and variance estimation. Each
subpopulation progeny test includes nine genetic checks as
entries. This will allow for any genotype by environment
interaction to be identified across the sites. The genetic
checks are not included in the single-tree plot BSOs, in order
to keep the subpopulations unrelated for future crosses.
Growth measurements were taken annually from both the
progeny test and BSO component of each subpopulation.
Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) was used to
determine the variance components and the heritabilities of
the five subpopulations.
In the individual analyses, the linear model applied to the
trial data was:
y = Xb + Za + Wc + e
where y, b, a, c and e are the data vector, block effects
(fixed), additive genetic effects (random), plot effects
(random) and random error effects, respectively.
The narrow-sense individual heritability was calculated
as:
where:
σ 2a = additive genetic variance
σ 2c = variance among plots
σ 2e = residual variance (environmental within plot + non-
additive)
Note that for Subpopulation 1 (full-sib families), the above
equation was amended and the coefficient of relationship
was adjusted in accordance with the increased relatedness
of sibs, i.e. the ‘¼’s were replaced by ‘½’.
Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP) was used to
determine the breeding values and, hence, the genetic
value of each of the individuals in the five subpopulations,
as well as the predicted genetic gain if selection was
applied. Estimation and prediction by the REML/BLUP
procedure were performed using the computer program
Selegen (Resende, 2002).
To date, three-year diameter at breast height (DBH)
measurements have been taken for the BSO components.
For the progeny trials, three-year DBH measurements and
three-year height measurements have been taken, from
which three-year wood volumes have been estimated using
the following Schumacher and Hall equation, developed by
Schönau (1972):
ln volume = 1.95322(ln DBH) + 1.2315(ln height) –
10.9156
Results from the five subpopulations were compared with
predictions for black wattle on good, average and poor
sites, using models developed by the Mensuration
Modelling Research Co-operative (MMRC) (MMRC, 2005).
Using these same models, 10-year volume predictions
were made for each subpopulation (using entire trial data
and various selection intensities) and once again compared
with predictions made by the MMRC for good, average and
poor black wattle sites. This was done as an exercise to
verify whether the Multiple Population Breeding Strategy
could provide improvement in the future and is by no
means to be used as an accurate prediction.
Beck, de Guisti, Louw and Resende112
Subpopulation Location Longitude Latitude Mean annual Mean annual Altitude (m) Origin of seed
rainfall (mm) temperature (°C)
1 Enon 30°14’E 29°48’S 1 054 15.7 1 360 Advanced generation of
controlled crosses
2 Bloemendal 30°28’E 29°32’S 897 17.9 850 Backward-selected,
open-pollinated parents
3 Liff 30°24’E 29°16’S 1 134 16.1 1 290 Cold, frost-tolerant seed
4 Bloemendal 30°28’E 29°32’S 897 17.9 850 High-production
Australian provenances
5 Mistley 30°39’E 29°11’S 708 18.6 740 Piet Retief land races
6 Baynesfield 30°15’E 29°45’S 950 17.0 945 Top 10% of families in
old BSOs
Note: In addition to the number of families planted in each subpopulation, there were also nine genetic checks or control families planted in
the progeny trial at each site
Table 1: Details of the six subpopulations of Acacia mearnsii and sites chosen for the establishment thereof (amended from Dunlop et al.,2003)
σ
σ σ σ+ +
=
2
2 2 2
2
14
14
a
a c e
h
Southern Hemisphere Forestry Journal 2007, 69(2): 111–116 113
Results and discussion
Three-year growth measurements Subpopulation 3 showed the lowest trait average for all
traits (DBH = 7.23cm; height = 7.00m) (Tables 2 and 3).
This was to be expected, as this subpopulation is selected
for cold and frost tolerance rather than volume. Subpopu-
lations 1, 4 and 5 were the best performers with respect to
trait averages, with Subpopulation 5 displaying particularly
high trait averages (DBH = 10.48cm; height = 13.51m)
(Tables 2 and 3). In general, the trait averages are greater
in the BSO than progeny test components: Subpopulation 1
(DBH): 9.64cm vs 10.90cm; Subpopulation 4 (DBH):
9.13cm vs 10.35cm; Subpopulation 5 (DBH): 10.48cm vs
10.97cm (Table 2).
The results show that significant gains are possible (in
comparison to the trial mean) by selecting either the top 20
individuals, according to breeding values predicted by
BLUP: DBH (progeny): 9.02 to 30.51%; DBH (BSO): 11.00
to 28.13%; height (progeny): 5.85 to 28.43%, or top 20
families, according to genetic values predicted by BLUP:
DBH (progeny): 0.93 to 5.73%; DBH (BSO): 0.21 to 3.97%;
height (progeny): 0.93 to 6.57%, from each of the subpopu-
lations (Tables 2 and 3). In both the BSO and progeny
trials, the greatest gain comes from selecting the top 20
individuals, compared with individuals from the top 20
families, as this increases the selection intensity.
In this study, heritability is a measure of how much of the
observed variation can be attributed to additive genetic
effects. A high heritability indicates a high amount of genetic
variation in the population. In Subpopulation 1, the individ-
ual narrow-sense heritability (h2a) estimates are low — h2
a
Subpopulations
1 2 3 4 5
Progeny Top 20 individuals Trait average (cm) 9.64 8.38 7.23 9.13 10.48
Trait average after selection (cm) 10.51 10.51 8.82 11.92 11.59
Gain (%) 9.02 25.43 21.94 30.51 10.58
Top 20 families Trait average (cm) 9.64 8.38 7.23 9.13 10.48
Trait average after selection (cm) 9.73 8.86 7.44 9.59 10.80
Gain (%) 0.93 5.73 2.90 5.04 3.05
h2a 0.09 0.54 0.50 0.65 0.17
σ 2a 0.57 2.14 0.87 9.13 0.78
BSO Top 20 individuals Trait average (cm) 10.09 10.35 10.97
Trait average after selection (cm) 12.39 13.27 12.18
Gain (%) 13.65 28.13 11.00
Top 20 families Trait average (cm) 10.09 10.35 10.97
Trait average after selection (cm) 11.02 10.38 11.41
Gain (%) 1.06 0.21 3.97
h2a 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.63 0.21
σ 2a 0.97 0.07 0.01 3.26 1.10
h2a is the individual narrow-sense heritability
σ 2a is the additive genetic variance
Note: The percentage genetic gain was calculated as a percentage of the original value of that trait. For example, if the top 20 individuals are
selected in Subpopulation 1, then a 9.02% gain (of 9.64cm) is made
Table 2: The average DBH, the possible percentage gain from selection in DBH and the heritabilities for DBH, for the progeny trials and
BSOs of the first five subpopulations
. Subpopulations
1 2 3 4 5
Progeny Top 20 individuals Trait average (m) 11.82 11.23 7.00 11.45 13.51
Trait average after selection (m) 14.30 12.48 8.99 13.12 14.30
Gain (%) 20.98 11.13 28.43 14.59 5.85
Top 20 families Trait average (m) 11.82 11.23 7.00 11.45 13.51
Trait average after selection (m) 11.93 11.57 7.46 11.86 13.76
Gain (%) 0.93 3.03 6.57 3.58 1.85
h2a 0.13 0.41 0.39 0.50 0.19
σ 2a 0.80 1.21 1.44 1.21 0.53
h2a is the individual narrow-sense heritability
σ 2a is the additive genetic variance
Table 3: The average height, the possible percentage gain from selection for height and the heritabilities for height, of the progeny trials of
the first five subpopulations (height was not measured in the BSOs)
Beck, de Guisti, Louw and Resende114
(DBH): 0.09 to 0.16; h2a (height): 0.13) (Tables 2 and 3) —
and consequently selection of the top 20 individuals is not
recommended. This is confirmed by the fact that in both the
BSO and progeny trials, almost all of the top 20 individuals
came from a single family. Thus, for this subpopulation, it is
recommended that a restriction should be applied to the
number of individuals selected per family and that a number
of top individuals across a range of families should be
selected to ensure sufficient genetic gain and variability.
Subpopulation 5 also had relatively low individual heritability
estimates — h 2a (DBH): 0.17 to 0.21; h 2
a (height): 0.19
(Tables 2 and 3) — and it is recommended that this popula-
tion be managed in a similar way to Subpopulation 1.
Subpopulation 4 had very good trait averages and
showed the highest heritabilities and, hence, the greatest
potential for improvement — h2a (DBH): 0.63 to 0.65; h2
a
(height): 0.49 (Tables 2 and 3). Subpopulations 2 and 3
showed promising individual heritability estimates in the
progeny trial — h2a (DBH): 0.54 and 0.50 respectively; h2
a
(height): 0.41 and 0.39 respectively, but there was no
genetic variation detected in the BSO components of these
subpopulations, as evidenced by the near-zero heritability
values (Tables 2 and 3). The reason for these low heritabili-
ties is unclear at present; however, all selections will be
made using the progeny trial for each subpopulation.
ImprovementsThe three-year data from the five subpopulations were
compared against the base population, control Family 86
(unimproved Natal Tanning Extracts Ltd (NTE) material), as
well as with MMRC predicted three-year data across three
black wattle growing sites (good, average and poor)
(MMRC, 2005), to determine whether there was any
improvement. Family 86 performed below the trial mean for
DBH and height across all sites except Subpopulation 3
(Table 4). Furthermore, all the subpopulations (except
Subpopulation 3, which is aimed more at selecting trees for
cold and frost tolerance rather than volume) performed well
above the good site quality predictions from the MMRC
models (average three-year DBH for subpopulations:
7.29–10.43cm; average three-year height for subpopula-
tions: 7.11–13.56m; MMRC three-year DBH ranges from
6.60cm to 7.60cm; MMRC three-year height ranges from
7.10m to 9.70m) (Table 5). Another interesting comparison
can be made, as the MMRC model for Site Quality 2 (SQ2)
is based on data taken from the same areas as that of
Subpopulation 5, and similarly for SQ3 and Subpopulations
2 and 4. In this comparison, the impact of site or environ-
mental effects is removed, and in all cases the subpopula-
tion data outperform the predictions for the average (SQ2)
and poor (SQ3) site qualities. After three years the material
in the subpopulations is performing well and genetic gains
are real, relative to the MMRC predictions.
Future improvementsA further investigation was conducted to see whether these
genetic gains will provide any improvement in volume at full
rotation. MMRC models which had been recently updated
to accommodate data from young material were applied.
The comparisons were applied to the progeny trial data
only, as three-year height measurements were not
measured in the BSOs and hence volumes could not be
predicted. At the predicted full rotation, using entire trial
Family Subpopulations
1 2 3 4 5
DBH Height DBH Height DBH Height DBH Height DBH Height
(cm) (m) (cm) (m) (cm) (m) (cm) (m) (cm) (m)
83 (natural regeneration) 9.26 12.13 9.24 11.99 7.92 7.87 8.81 11.49 10.35 13.74
84 (natural regeneration) 9.43 11.65 8.46 11.59 8.01 8.33 8.68 11.92 10.64 13.26
85 (natural regeneration) 10.47 12.65 8.24 11.40 7.98 8.63 8.76 11.40 11.60 14.39
86 (NTE: completely unimproved seed) 8.44 10.89 7.09 10.36 7.83 7.52 8.11 11.05 9.74 12.96
87 (PSO 5: improved material) 8.42 11.19 8.65 11.26 7.92 7.12 8.89 11.81 10.94 14.45
88 (controlled crosses) 10.89 12.96 9.18 11.54 7.76 7.62 9.85 12.17 11.00 13.79
89 (controlled crosses) 9.45 10.85 8.69 11.25 6.97 7.24 9.33 11.72 10.29 13.30
90 (controlled crosses) 9.95 12.23 9.73 12.32 6.82 6.73 9.16 11.96 10.19 13.40
91 (controlled crosses) 9.49 12.27 8.40 11.66 7.51 7.35 8.52 11.31 10.56 14.42
Trial mean 9.64 11.82 8.38 11.23 7.23 7.00 9.13 11.45 10.48 13.51
Trial mean after selection of top 20 individuals 10.51 14.30 10.51 12.48 8.82 8.99 11.92 13.12 11.59 14.30
Trial mean after selection of top 20 families 9.73 11.93 8.86 11.57 7.44 7.46 9.59 11.86 10.80 13.76
Note: for DBH (p = 0.05, LSD = 1.08); height (p = 0.05, LSD = 0.98)
Table 4: Mean DBH (cm) and height (m) of control families across the five subpopulations and the trial mean for DBH at each subpopulation
Subpopulations Progeny trial average at three years
Av. DBH (cm) Av. height (m) Stem ha–1
1 9.64 11.85 1 331
2 (SQ3) 8.38 11.47 1 411
3 7.23 7.11 1 161
4 (SQ3) 9.13 11.56 1 475
5 (SQ2) 10.48 13.56 1 221
SQ1 (good) 7.60 9.70 1 391
SQ2 (average) 7.20 8.50 1 391
SQ3 (poor) 6.60 7.10 1 391
Table 5: A comparison of three-year growth measurements (height
and DBH) from the five subpopulations and three typical sites —
good (SQ1), average (SQ2) and poor (SQ3), as predicted by the
MMRC — for growing Acacia mearnsii
Southern Hemisphere Forestry Journal 2007, 69(2): 111–116 115
data (i.e. no selection applied), MAIs of 10.40–15.80m3 ha–1
y–1 or 9.10–13.90t ha–1 y–1 can be expected (Table 6). If one
selects the top 20 individuals (based on BLUP’s predicted
genetic worth), MAIs of 13.20–19.60m3 ha–1 y–1 or 11.60–
16.00t ha–1 y–1 can be expected. If one selects the top 20
families (based on predicted genetic worth as estimated by
BLUP), MAIs of 10.60–19.10m3 ha–1 y–1 or 9.30–16.80t ha–1
y–1 can be expected. These predictions are, in most cases
(except for Subpopulation 3), all well above those predicted
from MMRC models for a good site (13.00m3 ha–1 y–1 1 or
11.40t ha–1 y–1). It is important to note that these predictions
were made using data from young material, and that this
exercise was done only to determine whether there was
any indication that the Multiple Population Breeding Stra-
tegy can provide the industry with significant long-term
gains in volume.
Results show that the potential for genetic gain in the
future is real, which is encouraging for the black wattle
breeding programme at the ICFR and the black wattle
industry.
Site effectsWhen comparing the genetic controls in the progeny trials
within each subpopulation, Subpopulation 3 generally
produced significantly lower values (Table 4), this being due
to the fact that it was planted on a temperate site. It must
be noted that Subpopulations 1 (Enon) and 5 (Mistley) were
established on better-quality sites than Subpopulations 2
and 4 (both at Bloemendal) and Subpopulation 3 (Liff). In
addition, Subpopulation 5 showed significantly higher trait
averages than the other four subpopulations; however,
Subpopulation 1 was not signif icantly greater than
Subpopulations 2 and 4 (the Bloemendal sites) (Table 4).
When comparing controls across the five subpopulations,
it can be seen that Families 88 (a controlled cross from the
existing breeding programme), 85 (seed collected from a
natural regenerated stand) and 90 (advanced-generation
controlled cross) were consistently the best-performing
families. Family 85 performed very poorly (in comparison to
some of the other control families) in Subpopulations 2 and
4 at Bloemendal, particularly with respect to DBH (Table 4).
This family, however, was among the top-performing
families in Subpopulations 1 and 5 (the good-quality sites at
Enon and Mistley, respectively). This indicates a degree of
genotype by environment interaction, as it appears that
Family 85 outperformed the other control families on good-
quality sites and was outperformed by most of the other
control families on poor-quality sites. Control Family 90
performed favourably on the two Bloemendal sites
(medium- to poor-quality sites), but poorly (in comparison to
the other control families) on the worst site at Liff (Sub-
population 3, the temperate site) and on the best site at
Mistley (Subpopulation 5), indicating that this family per-
forms optimally on medium-quality sites (Table 4). Family
86 (unimproved material from NTE) performed consistently
poorly across all the sites, as expected; however, this family
was not always significantly poorer than other controls.
Although Family 87 (material from Production Seed
Orchard 5, which currently supplies the industry with
improved seed), performed on average across all sites, it
did not perform much better than Family 86.
Family 86 (unimproved NTE material) performed below
the trial mean for DBH and height across all sites, except
for Subpopulation 3. Family 87 (PSO 5: improved material)
performed above the trial mean for DBH and height at all
sites, except at Sites 1 and 4, where the trial means ranked
higher for DBH. The trial mean, in comparison to the
controls, improved considerably after selection of the top 20
individuals.
Only in Subpopulations 1 (DBH and height) and 4 (DBH)
did the trial mean rank higher than Family 87 (PSO 5:
improved material).
The controls used in this study were from different
genetic compositions, i.e. not all open-pollinated families,
whereas Burdon (1977) noted that for an accurate indica-
tion of genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI), the
common families should have the same genetic make-up
and this is why GEI was not discussed here.
Conclusion
This is the first time that a series of trials of this nature has
been planted as part of a breeding strategy for black wattle
in South Africa. The results to date show potential for signif-
icant genetic gain in this species. The three-year results
showed promising heritability values and prospective
genetic gain, particularly from many of the BSOs. It is
proposed that in future height as well as DBH be measured
Subpopulation Progeny trial 10-year volume predictions
Entire trial Top 20 individuals Top 20 families
m3 ha–1 t ha–1 m3 ha–1 t ha–1 m3 ha–1 t ha–1
1 122.30 107.50 269.00 236.50 162.20 142.60
2 (SQ3) 133.40 117.30 255.60 224.70 143.60 126.20
3 104.00 91.40 132.10 116.10 106.70 93.80
4 (SQ3) 158.10 139.00 290.10 255.00 180.10 158.30
5 (SQ2) 151.20 132.90 296.30 260.40 191.20 168.10
SQ1 (good) 130.00 114.30
SQ2 (average) 100.00 87.90
SQ3 (poor) 70.00 61.50
Table 6: A comparison between predicted 10-year volume of the five subpopulations and actual 10-year volume from three Acacia mearnsiisites. The three Acacia mearnsii sites are SQ1 (good-quality site), SQ2 (average-quality site) and SQ3 (poor-quality site)
Beck, de Guisti, Louw and Resende116
in the BSOs, as this will allow one to compare if more
accurate estimates, for families and individuals, can be
gained from the BSOs rather than the progeny trials.
Subsequently, the effect of trial design, specifically plot size,
appears to be noteworthy and these differences will be
monitored with future annual measurements, with the aim of
making more precise selections of superior individuals.
Annual measurements of these trials allow for any changes
in heritabilities and rankings of individuals to be taken into
account, as well as any potential effect of genotype by
environmental interaction to be considered prior to selecting
individuals and families for advanced generations.
The authors believe that this strategy and the analytical
techniques employed will provide the best method of identi-
fying top individuals and families to be used in future
nucleus breeding populations. Ultimately, this strategy will
benefit the growers who choose to use the seed coming out
of this breeding programme.
Acknowledgements — The authors would like to thank all the ICFR
staff involved in the measuring of the trials as well as Sappi,
MondiBP, NCT, Graeme Pope-Ellis and their foresters for their co-
operation and maintenance of these trials.
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