Assessment Processfor

Comprehensive Assessmentof Water Management in

Agriculture

“Ecosystem chapter”

based on material supplied by

Habiba Gitayconsultant to the Comprehensive

Assessment

What is an assessment?An Assessment• Is a critical and objective evaluation of

information, for guiding decisions on a complex, public issue (or issues)

• It is based around policy-relevant or user/stakeholder questions

• It is designed to inform a specific audience or ‘authorising environment’

(It does but it is not designed to introduce yet new jargon – please ask if you get confused)

An assessment• Is not a medium for presenting new research

findings ….– Most data are already collected, peer-reviewed and in public

domain, or in other assessments– Can be ‘gap-filling’, and contain new (re)runs of old models

and syntheses

• Focuses on identified policy questions/issues– Judgement on veracity and uncertainty of evidence, clearly

labelled, is required

• Is not a personal advocacy piece– Represents a ‘balanced’ and evidence-based view from the

writing team, with external review, and demonstrated response to the review

• Is not an opportunity to promote pet topics or own work, nor develop personal research agendas – It is a team effort and assessment of the evidence

Some Characteristics of an Assessment

• Process: open, transparent, reviewed, widely representative

• Technically accurate, evidence-based

• Aims to reduce complexity, but add value to existing information

– summation, synthesis and sorting of what is known and widely accepted from what is not known or not agreed or uncertain

• Conducted by a team of experts – broad range of disciplinary and geographical

experience; different knowledge systems– able to work together and have fun – team

rapport is necessary

Review Assessment

Audience Scientists Decision-makers

Conducted by One or a few Larger and varied group

Issues/topic Simple and narrow Broad and complex

Identifies gaps in Research: driven by curiosity

Knowledge for implementation: problem-driven

(Un)certainty statements

Not required Essential

Judgement Hidden, more objective

Required and clearly flagged

Synthesis Not required Essential to reduce complexity

Coverage Exhaustive, historical

Sufficient to deal with main range of uncertainty

Dealing with (un)certaintyQuantitative scale

• Very certain (>=97.5% probability)

• High certainty (83-97.5%)

• Medium certainty (67-83%)

• Low certainty (52.5-67%)

• Very uncertain (<52.5%)

Dealing with (un)certainty - qualitative scale

Can be used in main text; must be used in Executive Summary / Summary for Decision-Makers

Le

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or

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Lo

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igh

Low HighAmount of evidence

(observations, theory, model outputs etc)

Established but incomplete

Well Established

Speculative incomplete

Competing Explanations

Framework for the AssessmentBased on (much improved) the Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment

• Concentrates on issues or questions• Gives focus / keeps us on track

• Four important components• Development Goals• Pressures / Drivers of change• Resource Base – agricultural systems / biodiversity

landscape• Outcomes / Impacts

• Consider & document (draft) key messages covering strategies, interventions, investments & agricultural practices (to support achievement of Goals), provide & assess evidence and case studies

Development Goals

Poverty and hunger reduction sustainable growth,

improved health and nutrition, Environmental sustainability

Equity

Outcomes / Impacts (+/-)Food, Fibre,

Income, employmentChanges in resource base

(nutrients, degradation/enhancement)

Pressures/Drivers/Trends

•Population and consumption patterns•Urbanization•Trade•Climate Change•Increasing Complexity

Agricultural SystemsFishery, livestock, crops,agro-forestry/plantation

Strategies, interventions & investments

Agricultural / Environmental practices

Policies on subsidies, trade, Market access

Resource BaseWater, Soil, Biodiversity

Human capacity

Management Interventions