Assets, damage, deaths, thirst

Jim Cousins

Creations• Buildings

• Occupants (day & night)

• Earthquake shaking

• Fragility and casualty rates

• Pipelines

• Failure rates

Buildings modelFOOT_ID nzmgE nzmgN Storeys Year RV ($2009) Nconstype Nstrqual OccN OccD AmpCls LqCls LsCls C_Val_Tot60000068 2471942 5739842 1 1960 553,400 6 1 0 5 5 5 1 110,70060000069 2471942 5739842 2 1995 1,026,900 5 2 0 13 5 5 1 410,80060000070 2471942 5739842 1.73 1975 1,499,200 5 2 0 18 5 5 1 599,70060000071 2471940 5739839 1.42 1960 1,258,900 6 1 0 15 5 5 1 503,60060000072 2470687 5740740 1 1990 251,800 1 1 2 0 5 5 1 75,50060000073 2474991 5747444 1 1975 21,800 5 1 0 0 5 5 1 17,40060000074 2474993 5747447 1.31 1980 1,789,600 1 1 1 12 5 5 1 357,90060000075 2473346 5743100 1.92 1990 545,100 1 1 4 1 5 5 1 163,50060000076 2477073 5742315 1 1990 90,500 1 1 1 0 5 5 1 27,20060000077 2477741 5743869 1.25 1990 226,300 1 1 1 0 5 5 1 67,90060000078 2487598 5744216 1 1940 81,700 5 1 0 0 4 2 1 65,40060000079 2483318 5741209 1 1975 22,400 5 1 0 0 5 5 1 17,90060000080 2482815 5742058 1 1920 98,200 5 1 1 0 5 5 1 39,30060000081 2483221 5741943 1.8 1900 641,400 7 1 0 11 5 5 1 192,40060000082 2480345 5740719 1 1920 20,700 10 1 0 0 5 5 1 16,500

5300000

5500000

5700000

5900000

6100000

6300000

6500000

6700000

1900000 2100000 2300000 2500000 2700000 2900000 3100000

Epicentre

Fault

MM10

MM9

MM8

MM7

MM6

MM5

MM4

Fragility functions

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0

Dam

age

Rat

io

MM Intensity

Sewer, VH LIQ ground

Potable, VH LIQ ground

Soft & Liquefiable

Landslide-prone

Sound

10,000 runs of RiskScape – Christchurch Quake 22nd Feb

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Building Damage ($m) - Mag 6.2

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Dead Day - Mag 6.2

NB: Log scale, and building occupants only

10,000 runs of RiskScape – Christchurch Quake 22nd Feb

Earthquake Details Building Value Building Damage Damage

($ billion) ($ billion) (% of value)

2010-09-03 16:35 mag 7.2 DARFIELD 64 3.9 6.1%

2011-02-21 23:51 mag 6.2 CHRISTCHURCH 60 4.8 8.0%

2011-02-22 00:04 mag 5.6 Christchurch aftershock 55 2.7 4.9%

2011-02-22 01:50 mag 5.6 Christchurch aftershock 52 2.3 4.4%

2011-04-16 05:49 mag 5.0 Christchurch aftershock 50 0.6 1.2%

2011-06-13 01:01 mag 5.3 Christchurch aftershock 49 1.1 2.2%

2011-06-13 02:20 mag 6.0 Christchurch aftershock 48 2.2 4.6%

Cumulative Losses 18 28%

Wellington & Lower Hutt – Wellington Fault rupture – 10,000 runs

0

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Building Damage ($m) - Mag 7.5

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Dead Day - Mag 7.5

10,000 runs

NB: Log scale , and building occupants only

Thirst

Orongorongo

Te Marua Whakatikei

Kaitoke

Hutt Artesian Silverstream

Thorndon

Karori

Petone

Porirua

Wellington

System Current Sources Whakatikei Dam

Kaitoke – Karori 35 – 55 –

Whakatikei – Karori – 20 – 35

Wainuiomata – Thorndon 60 – 80 55 – 75

Hutt Artesian – Thorndon 60 – 80 55 – 75

Time for stored water to run out ……….. 20 days?