Assignment 1 Technical and economic review of four possible methods of developing East Mediterranean Gas resources through Cyprus V.1

MOE 506 LNG Processing, Storage, Transport, Re-gasification, Distribution and Usage

Assignment 1

Technical and economic review of four

possible methods of developing East

Mediterranean gas resources through Cyprus

Authors: Supervisor:

Nikolaos G. Felessakis Dr Richard J

Barnes

(8653)

1


Introduction..................................................................................41. Converting all the gas to LNG in a LNG plant located at Vassilikos and selling to international markets in Europe & Asia......................5

1.1 Introduction.........................................................................51.2 Connection LNG plant and Reserves......................................61.3 LNG Plant Configurations......................................................7

1.3.1 1. Gas preparation...........................................................................71.3.2 2. Liquefaction.................................................................................71.3.3 3. Storage and loading....................................................................7

1.4 Storage tanks......................................................................81.5 European and Asia Market....................................................8

2. Converting all the gas to LNG in a floating LNG plant and selling to international markets in Europe and Asia....................................9

2.1 Introduction to floating LNG plant.........................................92.1.1 The FLSO vessel..............................................................................92.1.2 The FLNG vessel............................................................................10

2.2 Technical Characteristics....................................................113. Exporting the gas from Cyprus by pipeline to Greece and then Italy to tie-in to the European system...........................................12

3.1 Introduction.......................................................................123.1.1 The main processes of compressor station:..................................123.1.2 Metering Stations..........................................................................133.1.3 Control Stations and SCADA Systems............................................13

3.2 Exports by pipeline.............................................................133.3 Pipeline network................................................................15

4. Exporting the gas from Cyprus by pipeline to Turkey and then to tie-in to the proposed Nabucco pipeline........................................165. Techno-Economical Analysis....................................................17

5.1 Introduction.......................................................................175.2 Analysis of LNG plant and floating LNG................................18

5.2.1 Advantages of LNG plant...............................................................185.2.2 Disadvantages...............................................................................18

5.3 Analysis of Pipeline Connection Cyprus-Greece-Italy............205.4 Analysis of Pipeline Connection Cyprus-Turkey....................235.5 Resume...........................................Error! Bookmark not defined.

5.5.1 The European market gas needs...................................................255.5.2 The Asian market gas needs.........................................................265.5.3 Gas export Pricing Overview.........................................................27

6. Glossary.................................................................................297. Bibliography...........................................................................30

Figure 1-2 Plant 1 – Minimum Number of Units in LNG Facility Source : (Kotzot et al., 2007).........................................................................................7Figure 2-3 The first FLNG project from Shell “Prelude” .................................10Figure 3-1 Example of Compressor Station....................................................12Figure 5-2 Total amount of gas available for export......................................18

Histogram 1 LNG Structure plant & parameters...............................................5

2


Histogram 2 Pipe Line Parameters...................................................................6

Table 5.5.1-1 Increase of demand on EU import............................................25Table 5.5.2-1 Natural Gas Consumption in non-OECD Asia, 2015-2040 (bcm*)....................................................................................................................... 26Table 5.5.3-1 Natural Gas Prices $/Mmbtu ....................................................27

Words Counter

Main document 2347

Index 530

Bibliography 223

References 93

Figures 88

Table 54

Histogram 28

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Introduction

This project aims to analyze four possible options for the natural gas (NG)

development and the export plans of the available NG resources in the

Eastern Mediterranean via the Republic of Cyprus (RoC).

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1. Converting all the gas to LNG in a LNG plant located at Vassilikos and selling to international markets in Europe & Asia.

1.1 Introduction

The option of an LNG plant requires several parameters. The following

Histogram 1 can briefly describe them (Nobole Energy International, 2013)

Histogram 1 LNG Structure plant & parameters

This analysis is based on the indications of the potential resources coming

from the Aphrodite and Leviathan Reservoirs.

LNG Plant Analisys

Technical Analysis

Plant Configurations

PipeLine Network's

liquefaction Facility

Gas preparation

Liquefanction

Storage & Loading

Marine Terminal

Time Requierd Recuaierd Area

Economical Analisys

Project Cost

Total Cost

Pay Back Period

Price ($/Tcf)

Market Analisys

Domestic International Markets

Asia

Europe

Aveliable Sources

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1.2 Connection LNG plant and Reserves

The pipeline network is consisted

from the Aphrodite and the

Leviathan reserve. The distance

from the former reserve towards

the plant is approximately 185

km. Natural gas will be brought

ashore from the offshore fields in

pipelines of approximately 20"-

24" diameter. The calculated

quantity for export is 5 (mtpa)

of LNG to the international

markets.

Histogram 2 Pipe Line Parameters

Pipe Line Conection Plan

Availiable Reserves

Aphrodite Reserve

Leviathan Reserve

Technical Characteristics

Distance Depth Capacity

Figure 1-1 Scheme offshore pipeline network Source:

(http://nugrohoadi.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/orme

n_lange_high.jpg)

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1.3 LNG Plant Configurations

The liquefaction plant converts the natural gas received from the pipeline

into a liquid suitable for storage. A liquefaction facility consists three main

sections:

1.3.1 1. Gas preparation

Any constituents, such as water vapor, which freeze at liquefaction

temperatures, must be removed. Removal of hydrogen sulfide is also

required to meet the LNG product specifications.

1.3.2 2. Liquefaction

The mechanical equipment refrigerates the gas in order to liquefy it. In the

atmospheric pressure, the gas becomes a liquid at – 260° F and its volume

diminishes by a factor of 600.

1.3.3 3. Storage and loading

Insulated tankers retain the NG as a liquid and the loading system transfers

the product from land-based storage to the LNG tankers. Approximately 6

years are required for the complete design and construction of a liquefaction

plant.

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Figure 1-2 Plant 1 – Minimum Number of Units in LNG Facility Source : (Kotzot et

al., 2007)

1.4 Storage tanks

The LNG storage tanks are

full containment tanks and

there is sufficient space on

the plot to accommodate

storage tanks for both Phase

1 for the Aphrodite reserve

and 2 for the Leviathan and

probably for others in the

future

The size of each one is approximately of 160.000 m3. The majority of the

conventional LNG tankers have an average capacity of 160,000 m3.

1.5 European and Asia Market

Cyprus could supply 30% of Europe’s additional energy needs by 20251.

Nevertheless, Asia is also a significant client as its LNG imports are expected

to rise in the future2.

1 (http://www.cyprusprofile.com/en/articles/view/cyprus-could-supply-30-of-europes-additional-energy-needs-by-2025))2 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-21/china-lng-imports-rise-to-record-for-second-month-on-new-plants.html

Figure 1-3 Full containment tank

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2. Converting all the gas to LNG in a floating LNG plant and selling to international markets in Europe and Asia.

2.1 Introduction to floating LNG plant

Floating liquefied natural gas, allows the production, processing and storage

of the gas at sea. This concept reduces both the project costs and

environmental footprint of an LNG development, because pipelines,

compression platforms, jetty construction and onshore development are not

necessary3, while it provides quicker time-to-market at a fraction of the cost4.

Two types of Floating LNG plant exist: the FLSO and the FLNG.

2.1.1 The FLSO vessel

The FLSO is an autonomous floating structure that does not rely on any

shore-based utilities to function. It is constructed in a shipyard, and then led

to its designated site, where it is integrated with the gas source. Mooring and

connection infrastructure requirements are minimal. The FLSO is able to tap

directly into a natural gas source, liquefy the gas and subsequently offload

the LNG to either a traditional LNG carrier or in an FSRU’s5.

3 http://www.shell.com.au/aboutshell/who-we-are/shell-au/operations/upstream/prelude.htmlk (Shell, n.d.)4 http://excelerateenergy.com/floating-liquefaction-flng5 http://www.petrotechsociety.org/Presentations/LNG%20Programme%20Presentations/Latest%20Trends%20-%20FSRU%20and%20FSU.pdf

Figure 2-4 Floating Liquefaction

Storage and Offloading (vessel

Figure 2-5 A Floating Storage Regasification

Unit

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2.1.2 The FLNG vessel

The FLNG combines the functions of an offshore gas receiving facility, with

gas treatment and liquefaction plant, as well as storage and offloading

facilities. The FLNG has less upfront capital costs, while the offshore

installations are conventionally, more expensive.

Figure 2-6 The first FLNG project from Shell “Prelude” 6

The FLNG pioneers maintain that these units can be 30%-50% cheaper to

construct than onshore facilities. The First FLNG would probably cost between

$10.8bn and $12.6bn and it needs approximately 4 years for construction.

6 Source:http://www.shell.com.au/aboutshell/who-weare/shellau/operations/upstream/prelude/preludes-maiden-voyage.html

10

Figure 2-7 Global LNG Fleet by Capacity, 2012 Sources: PFC Energy Global LNG Service


2.2 Technical Characteristics

The FLNG can store up to 220,000 m3. Furthermore, it can store up to 90,000

m3 of LPG, and 126,000 m3 of condensate. It can produce at least 5.3 (mtpa)

of liquids:

3.6 (mtpa) of LNG,

0.4 (mtpa) of liquefied petroleum gas and

1.3 (mtpa) of condensate (equivalent to 35,000 bbl/d)

It needs 15 hours to offload7

Offload liquid cargo ratio up to 10.000 m3/hour.

7(Arms of innovation, 2014) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvSaN-TLpyc#t=218

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3. Exporting the gas from Cyprus by pipeline to Greece and then Italy to tie-in to the European system.

3.1 Introduction

The Pipeline network is consisted from pipelines and the compressor station.

Compressor station is keeping the natural flow at the desired rate.

3.1.1 The main processes of compressor station:

Gas compression,

Gas chilling/cooling

Metering Stations

Control Stations and SCADA Systems

Figure 3-8 Example of Compressor Station8

Natural gas is pressurized as it travels through the interstate pipeline system.

To ensure that the gas continues to flow optimally, it must be periodically

compressed and pushed through pipelines. Over distance, friction and

geographic elevation differences slow the gas and reduce the pressure, so

compressor stations are placed typically 40 to 70 miles apart along the

8 http://www.mackenziegasproject.com/moreInformation/publications/documents/Compressor_Stations.pdf

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pipeline to give the gas a “boost”9. Stations also are equipped with filter

separators and scrubbers that remove any natural gas liquids or solid

particles that may have entered the pipeline.

3.1.2 Metering Stations

These metering stations measure the flow of gas along the pipeline, and

allow to ‘track’ natural gas as it flows along the pipeline.

3.1.3 Control Stations and SCADA Systems

To accomplish the monitoring and controlling of the natural gas that is

traveling through the pipeline, centralized gas control stations collect,

assimilate, and manage data received from monitoring and compressor

stations all along the pipeline10.

3.2 Exports by pipeline

This exporting scenario can be a potential choice through the Eastern

Mediterranean Pipeline (EMP). The EMP is proposed to transfer the Israeli and

Cypriot gas to Greece and then to Italy via the IGI-Poseidon pipeline and

consequently into European markets. IGI is the abbreviation for the

"Interconnector Greece-Italy".

9 Source Spectra energy10 http://naturalgas.org/naturalgas/transport/

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The IGI is considered by the European Union as a Projects of Common

Interest11. This project would be possible to import over 8 bcm/year of NG to

Italy, an amount that represents approximately 10% of the country's

consumption.

IGI Poseidon’s subsidiary ICGB signs a MoUC with TAP12 that is aiming at

assessing the technical aspects of the possible interconnection of the two

infrastructures.

11 Among the Projects of European Interest (highest level of priority recognized by the EU) with decision 1364/2006, as the project was considered compliant to the 5 criteria of article 22 of the EU directive 55/2003.12 http://www.igi-poseidon.com/pannelli/popup.asp?id=715

Figure 3-9 Eastern Mediterranean Pipeline, Source

http://www.efylakas.com/archives/19226

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3.3 Pipeline network

According to the original design, the pipeline will consist the following parts13:

a) A 150km underwater section from the deposits to Vasiliko, Cyprus,

b) A 650km underwater section from Vasiliko to the shore of eastern

Crete,

c) A 400km underwater section from Crete to Peloponnese,

d) A 260km land section running across Peloponnese,

e) An underwater section crossing the Gulf of Patras and finally,

f) A 220km land section from the shore of Aetolia-Acarnania to

Thesprotia

The Poseidon pipeline will be consisted form14:

The compression station in Thesprotia,

The onshore section is approximately 600 km pipeline between the

compression station and the Greek landfall,

The offshore pipeline between the Greek and Italian landfalls, is around

207 km.

Nowadays, there is a project under-study about the feasibility for constructing

a pipeline to carry gas from Israel and Cyprus15.

13 Source at: http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/03/10/depa-studying-gas-pipeline-feasibility-in-se-mediterranean/#sthash.i8Afa9db.dpuf14 http://www.igi-poseidon.com/english/pipeline.asp 15 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/greece-cyprus-idUSL6N0M72EC20140310

15

http://www.igi-poseidon.com/english/pipeline.asp


4. Exporting the gas from Cyprus by pipeline to Turkey and then to tie-in to the proposed Nabucco pipeline.

The exporting gas by pipeline scenario from Cyprus to Turkey, requires:

A 200km pipeline from Aphrodite reserve to Vassilikos

Another Onshore 60km pipeline to Kyrenia,

From Kyrenia an offshore 65km pipeline to the coast of Turkey,

Another onshore 200km pipeline to connect with the possible

position off Aydincik to Ceyhan and then

Approximately 530km onshore pipeline to Nabucco.

Therefore, 990km onshore and 265km offshore pipelines network will be

needed, while it is assumed that the reserve will be at 5bcm using only the

Aphrodite resource. In case part of the Leviathan reserve is also transferred

through the above pipeline, then the sum would be 8bcm, while there would

be needed another 250km of Leviathan-Vasiliko pipeline connection.

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5. Techno-Economical Analysis

5.1 Introduction

The following rough estimates the net revenue to be earned from the gas sold

as LNG or via pipeline, respectively, taking into account the major cost and

price factors (Gurel et al., 2013).

Figure 5-10 Eastern Mediterranean Region Potential

Markets

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5.2 Analysis of LNG plant and floating LNG

The available gas for export will depend firstly on how much is used for

domestic consumption. The CERA of the RoC estimates that 25 bcm will be

used until 2035. This reduces the amount of gas available for export from 198

bcm to 173 bcm.

Figure 5-11 Total amount of gas available for export

5.2.1 Advantages of LNG plant

The LNG can be exported anywhere in the world. According to the current

practice the LNG is usually sold under long-term contracts. It should be

stressed that the Asian gas market is growing faster than Europe’s. Thus,

selling gas via LNG in the former market would be a more profitable

investment than selling pipeline gas in Europe. Another advantage is that LNG

production, takes place on a single site, making it less vulnerable to attack

than a long pipeline. Furthermore, the LNG has 600 times smaller volume

than the natural gas, allowing large quantities to be exported at anytime thus,

reducing the transport costs16.

5.2.2 Disadvantages

The LNG plant is a very large running and investment cost, which reduces

considerably the revenue that can be generated. In Table 5.2.2-1, a rough

estimate of the net value of gas sold via LNG is illustrated, taking into account

16 Presentation by Pete Wallace, Senior Project Manager and Business Development Manager - Tractebel Engineering, Brussels, ’Construction of Vasilikos LNG Plant: Questions of Feasibility?’, 17 November 2011 at a seminar hosted by the European Rim and Investment Council (ERPIC), 17 November 2011.

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the major cost and price factors. The tables 5.2.2-3- 5.2.2-4 attempt to

capture the major investment and running costs.

Table 5.2.2-1 Estimated revenue from block 12 gas after running and investment

costs17

As the Table 5.2.2-1 shows, after deducting domestic consumption, another

amount must be deducted for LNG power consumption, estimated at 12.5%.

This reduces the gas available for sale to 152 bcm. At prevailing prices for

LNG in Europe, the gas worth $63 billion before the investment costs. The

next major investment cost is the construction of a single-train LNG plant,

estimated by the government at €7 to €10 billion18. Finally, the pipeline cost 17 Sources: Reuters (LNG prices); Pete Wallace, Tractebel Engineering (pipeline/km costs);Minister Sylikiotis (LNG plant cost); DEFA (distances from Block 12 to Vassiliko and pipeline cost).18 Minister of Commerce, Neoclis Syliokiotis, speaking at a seminar organized by the European Rim Policy and Investment Council (ERPIC) on 15 May 2012.

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from Block12 to Vassilikos reaches the $2 billion19. By adding the exploration

pipeline and the construction costs the total investment cost for an LNG plant

is around $12.6 billion. After deducting the gas losses for domestic

consumption and operating and investment costs, the net revenue of the gas

in Block 12 sold via LNG would be just above $50 billion.

A floating LNG plant, a fairly new technology, could be approximately 30%

more expensive for construction than an onshore plant20.

The second disadvantage is that it takes many years to build a plant and that

has a negative impact on NPV21. Thirdly, shipping the LNG is an energy-

intensive business, with each day of shipping consuming around 0.1-0.25% of

the cargo, according to some estimates. This reduces the profits when the

LNG is shipped to Asian markets.

The current plan in Cyprus, is to build a single-train plant of 5Mtpa, partly

because more than 7 tcf gas is needed to run anything larger. A larger plant

could be built if Israel decided to use an LNG plant in Cyprus to exploit its

reserves in Leviathan. Additionally, the RoC might have to wait for additional

discoveries in its EEZ.

5.3 Analysis of Pipeline Connection Cyprus-Greece-Italy

To be viable, a long pipeline of 1200km would need a very large amount of

gas. DEPA has said that the pipeline would have a capacity of 8 bcm/year.

Using all of the gas available in the RoC’s Block 12 would be enough to keep

the pipeline running for around 20 years at full capacity. The obstacle to

Cyprus-Greece pipeline is the investment cost. Before investment but after an

estimated 5% loss in transit, gas sold via pipeline to Greece would be worth

$74 billion at today’s prices22. The tender form Delek is to supply

approximately the amount 0.9 Bcm of NG to Cyprus per year23.

19 Presentation by DEFA Chairman Costas Ioannou at the Levant Energy Forum, 26 June 2012, slide 13.20 ERPIC presentation by Pete Wallace, 17 November 2011 Source http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiHVzA9E2PY21 Net present value is a way of accounting for the ‘time value of money’. Thus, a dollar earned today is worth more than a dollar earned in five years’ time because it can be invested and earn a return.22 Prices of Russian gas at the German border23 Delek: Submission of Offer to the Public Tender for the Supply of Natural Gas to Cyprus http://www.4-traders.com/DELEK-GROUP-LTD-6494439/news/Delek--Submission-of-Offer-to-the-Public-Tender-for-the-

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Table 5.2.2-2 Estimated revenue from gas sold via pipeline to Greece24

According to the estimates in Table 5.2.2-2, the additional investment cost of

a pipeline from Vassilikos to Greece would be almost $17 billion. This would

reduce the net revenue that could be generated to $54.5 billion. Thus, it is

little different in value from the $50bn gained from exporting gas as LNG.

5.4 Analysis of Pipeline Connection Cyprus-Turkey

The main advantage of the pipeline gas from Cyprus to Turkey is that

investment costs, at least for shorter pipelines of this length, are considerably

Supply-of-Natural-Gas-to-Cyprus-18341876/24 sources: index.mundi (natural gas prices); DEFA (distances from Block 12 to Vassiliko);DEPA (distances from Cyprus to Greece); Quantum Energy (likely depth of pipeline).

21


lower than the construction of LNG facilities. This leads to considerably more

net revenue after investment.

Table 5.2.2-3 Estimated revenue from gas sold via pipeline to Turkey

According to the estimates in Table 5.2.2-3, the gross value of gas via pipeline

after domestic consumption and losses in transit is $74 billion—the same as a

pipeline to Greece. This is already $11 billion higher than the revenue

available after power consumption from an LNG plant. Moreover, the

investment costs are far lower, at around $4.8 billion, compared with $12.7

billion for the LNG plant. Thus, the net revenue that can be generated by gas

sold via pipeline to Turkey comes out at $69 billion, compared with $55 billion

22


for a pipeline to Greece and $50 billion for an LNG plant. The second

advantage of piped gas is that it takes less time to build than an LNG plant.

Table 5.2.2-4 Revenue generated by different export options25

25 sources: Natural gas prices from index. mundi; LNG prices from Reuters; pipeline costs from Pete Wallace, Tractebel Engineering; LNG plant cost from Minister Sylikiotis; distances from Block 12 to Vassiliko from DEFA;distance from Cyprus to Greece from DEPA; pipeline depth to Greece from Quantum Energy figures on electricity cable.

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5.5 Conclusion

5.5.1 The European market gas needs

The European context26 sees a relentless increase in energy consumption. The

current data together with the market forecasts27 can be characterized as

follows:

the European gas demand is expected to grow from the present 558

bcm/annum to 720 bcm/annum in 2020,

The Europe's dependence on imports will continue to rise, from 45% of its

requirements at present to approximately 65% by 2020.

Table 5.5.1-1 Increase of demand on EU import28

26 Reference here is to the so-called EU 30, which includes, in addition to the member states of the European Union, also Norway, Switzerland and Turkey.27 Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook, BP Statistical Review, ENI, IHS, CERA, Edison28 Source: http://www.igi-poseidon.com/english/strategicvalue.asp

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5.5.2 The Asian market gas needs

A clear view for the Asian energy needs for the future is that the LNG imports

increased about 77% from a year ago to 2.65 mmt29. Furthermore, China will

have the greatest increase in demand, with its consumption rising from

around 158 bcm in 2015 to 495 bcm in 204030.

Table 5.5.2-2 Natural Gas Consumption in non-OECD Asia, 2015-2040 (bcm*)31

29 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-21/china-lng-imports-rise-to-record-for-second-month-on-new-plants.html30 "Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Table: World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Reference Case," Energy Information Administration, accessed September 5, 2013, http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/#release=IEO2013&subject=0-IEO2013&table=6-IEO2013&region=0-0&cases=Reference-d041117.

31 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2013.

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5.5.3 Gas export Pricing Overview

LNG prices in Europe were estimated in 2012 at $11-12/mbtu and Japanese

benchmark prices are between $15-17/mbtu. If Delek and Noble decide to

liquefy 10 bcm/y of their gas in Vassilikos the net profit margins of the LNG

option for the second LNG train can be several times higher than the $1-

$1.75/mbtu Cypriot and Israeli exporters would hope to get from selling their

gas to Turkey. (Tsakiris, 2013)

Table 5.5.3-3 Natural Gas Prices $/Mmbtu 32

32 BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2013

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Analyzing the overall cost for the development of the Aphrodite gas33 through

an LNG terminal in Vassiliks is around $8-$9/mbtu, then gas exports to Europe

can generate a net profit of approximately $2.5-$3/mbtu. If export contracts

to Asian markets are closed by Delek/Noble within 2015-2016 then the

potential profit margins could high as $7-$8/mbtu. (ibid.) An export strategy

equally dividing Cypriot LNG exports between Europe and Asia- would

generate an average net profit for LNG exports at $5.125/mbtu compared to a

best estimate of $3/mbtu for the Turkish pipeline option. Additionally,

sending all Cypriot gas exports to Turkey would essentially create a

monopsony relationship that is by definition against the interests of any

exporter even if there were no political impediments governing this

commercial relationship. That is why it is more likely that the solution of LNG

plant and at least 50% of the projected exports from Aphrodite and Leviathan

would go to Asian markets (ibid.)

33 Actually in strict techno-economical terms even Aphrodite’s reserves are still not proven. What we have are relatively accurate estimates of prospective reserves that will be fully verified after the production test which will follow the completion of the second appraisal wells that will drilled in the second half of 2014.

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6. Glossary

tcm = trillion cubic meters

FID = final investment decision

tcf = trillion cubic feet

RoC = Republic of Cyprus

MTPA = million tones per annum

MT = million tones

EEZ = Exclusive Economic Zone

MoUC = Memorandum of

Understanding and Cooperation

mmcm = million cubic meters

mmBtu = million British thermal

units

mcm = thousand cubic meters

LNG Liquefied natural gas

km = Kilometer

cm = cubic meters

CERA = Cyprus Energy Regulatory

Authority

bcm = billion cubic meters

DEFA = Natural Gas Public

Company

NPV = net present value

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29

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Documents

Assignment 1 Technical and economic review of four possible methods of developing East Mediterranean Gas resources through Cyprus V.1