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SPEAKER: Ben Clark, TMS Capital
LOCATION: Sydney
DATE: July 2013
ASX INVESTMENT TALKS
Stocks to watch
DISCLAIMER: The views, opinions or recommendations of the presenters are solely their own and
do not in any way reflect the views, opinions, recommendations, of ASX Limited ABN 98 008 624 691
and its related bodies corporate (“ASX”). Information and material presented at the seminar is for
educational purposes only and does not constitute financial product advice. Investors should obtain
independent advice from an Australian financial services licensee before making investment
decisions. No responsibility is accepted by ASX for any loss or damage arising in any way (including
due to negligence) from anyone acting or refraining from acting as a result of this information or
material.
© Copyright 2013 ASX Operations Pty Limited ABN 42 004 523 782. All rights reserved 2013.
Stocks to Watch
Ben Clark Portfolio Manager TMS Capital July 2013
TMS Capital Pty Ltd (AFSL – 333008)
Disclaimer
If any information, recommendation or advice is supplied with this publication
TMS Capital and its employees to the full extent permitted by law disclaim any liability for that information, recommendation or advice and to the
extent liability is imposed by law and is not avoided by the disclaimer, the liability of TMS Capital and all of its employees does not extend to any
consequential or economic loss. As each person’s circumstances will be different, if any recommendation is contained in this publication, no action
should be taken without advice from TMS Capital.
Contents
August reporting season – what to look for
2013 Stocks to watch
RMD – ResMed Inc.
IIN – iiNet Ltd
MBLHB – Macquarie Income Sec.
Who we are
Ben Clark
Financial markets since 2001
Bachelor of Commerce (Sydney)
Appears on CNBC and Sky Business
TMS Capital
Established in 2004
Independent ; owned by staff
Full service
Structural advice
Direct investments
SMSFs
FUM $300m
A strong and growing business
Reporting Season
ResMed
Global leading developer, manufacturer and distributor of medical devices to treat sleep-disordered breathing and other respiratory conditions.
ResMed
Track Record has been outstanding:
73 consecutive quarters of revenue growth
Since 2007 EPS has grown 144%
Gross margin last quarter was 62.4%
Company has net cash of $670m
On market buyback continues
ResMed
Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation
ResMed
How have they achieved this?
Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) recently estimated to occur in 25% of adult population.
Market Leader
Innovative product renewal
Diversified by region
ResMed
Why we are recommending RMD?
Market will continue to grow
New ways to diagnose patients
Move to Singapore
Weaker AUD
Capital Management
ResMed
Threats to the business
Competitive bidding process in the US
Increased competition
Resmed
Key numbers
Price $4.90
Year high/low: $5.26/$3.02
ROE 19%
FY14 PE 17.9x
FY13 Dividend yield 1.7%
Target price: $6.00
iiNet Ltd
Who they are?
Number 2 provider of DSL broadband in Australia
Recent acquisitions of Internode & TransAct
iiNet Ltd
Track Record has been strong:
Since 2007 EPS has grown 157%
EBITDA margin ~ 20.3%
Subscriber numbers have grown from 196K in 2008 to 826K today = considerable operating leverage
iiNet
Source – iiNet Macquarie conference May 2013
iiNet Ltd
How have they achieved this?
Growth in market share - service & brand
Recent acquisitions have been game changers
Innovation
Scale
iiNet’s record
Why we are recommending IIN?
Continued acquisition led cost savings
Subscriber growth
New products
Potential lift in payout ratio
Corporate potential?
iiNet
Threats to the business
Fixed voice line rental is a concern and must be closely watched
National Broadband Network
iiNet
Key numbers
Price $5.75 - Year high/low: $6.74/$3.25
ROE 19%
FY14 PE 14.6x
FY14 Dividend yield 3.7% ff – 50% payout
Net debt of $158m; Net Debt / EBITDA 1.7x
Target price: $6.50 (price volatility)
Interest rate securities
Basel III changes
APRA reassessment Tier 1 capital has led to reconstructed IRS
Focus turns to perpetual securities
“Transitional arrangements”
Strong yields
Potential for capital outcomes
MBLHB
Issued November 1999
$400m of Tier 1 capital securities
Rate: 90d BBSW + 170bps
Quarterly income
Face value $100
Current price $72.50
Running yield 6.11%
Target price $80
www.tmscapital.com.au [email protected]
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