26
SPEAKER: Ben Clark, TMS Capital LOCATION: Sydney DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS Stocks to watch DISCLAIMER: The views, opinions or recommendations of the presenters are solely their own and do not in any way reflect the views, opinions, recommendations, of ASX Limited ABN 98 008 624 691 and its related bodies corporate (ASX). Information and material presented at the seminar is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial product advice. Investors should obtain independent advice from an Australian financial services licensee before making investment decisions. No responsibility is accepted by ASX for any loss or damage arising in any way (including due to negligence) from anyone acting or refraining from acting as a result of this information or material. © Copyright 2013 ASX Operations Pty Limited ABN 42 004 523 782. All rights reserved 2013 .

ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

  • Upload
    hadan

  • View
    214

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

SPEAKER: Ben Clark, TMS Capital

LOCATION: Sydney

DATE: July 2013

ASX INVESTMENT TALKS

Stocks to watch

DISCLAIMER: The views, opinions or recommendations of the presenters are solely their own and

do not in any way reflect the views, opinions, recommendations, of ASX Limited ABN 98 008 624 691

and its related bodies corporate (“ASX”). Information and material presented at the seminar is for

educational purposes only and does not constitute financial product advice. Investors should obtain

independent advice from an Australian financial services licensee before making investment

decisions. No responsibility is accepted by ASX for any loss or damage arising in any way (including

due to negligence) from anyone acting or refraining from acting as a result of this information or

material.

© Copyright 2013 ASX Operations Pty Limited ABN 42 004 523 782. All rights reserved 2013.

Page 2: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

Stocks to Watch

Ben Clark Portfolio Manager TMS Capital July 2013

TMS Capital Pty Ltd (AFSL – 333008)

Page 3: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

Disclaimer

If any information, recommendation or advice is supplied with this publication

TMS Capital and its employees to the full extent permitted by law disclaim any liability for that information, recommendation or advice and to the

extent liability is imposed by law and is not avoided by the disclaimer, the liability of TMS Capital and all of its employees does not extend to any

consequential or economic loss. As each person’s circumstances will be different, if any recommendation is contained in this publication, no action

should be taken without advice from TMS Capital.

Page 4: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

Contents

August reporting season – what to look for

2013 Stocks to watch

RMD – ResMed Inc.

IIN – iiNet Ltd

MBLHB – Macquarie Income Sec.

Page 5: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

Who we are

Ben Clark

Financial markets since 2001

Bachelor of Commerce (Sydney)

Appears on CNBC and Sky Business

TMS Capital

Established in 2004

Independent ; owned by staff

Full service

Structural advice

Direct investments

SMSFs

FUM $300m

A strong and growing business

Page 6: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

Reporting Season

Page 7: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed
Page 8: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

ResMed

Global leading developer, manufacturer and distributor of medical devices to treat sleep-disordered breathing and other respiratory conditions.

Page 9: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

ResMed

Track Record has been outstanding:

73 consecutive quarters of revenue growth

Since 2007 EPS has grown 144%

Gross margin last quarter was 62.4%

Company has net cash of $670m

On market buyback continues

Page 10: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

ResMed

Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation

Page 11: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

ResMed

How have they achieved this?

Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) recently estimated to occur in 25% of adult population.

Market Leader

Innovative product renewal

Diversified by region

Page 12: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

ResMed

Why we are recommending RMD?

Market will continue to grow

New ways to diagnose patients

Move to Singapore

Weaker AUD

Capital Management

Page 13: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

ResMed

Threats to the business

Competitive bidding process in the US

Increased competition

Page 14: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

Resmed

Key numbers

Price $4.90

Year high/low: $5.26/$3.02

ROE 19%

FY14 PE 17.9x

FY13 Dividend yield 1.7%

Target price: $6.00

Page 15: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed
Page 16: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

iiNet Ltd

Who they are?

Number 2 provider of DSL broadband in Australia

Recent acquisitions of Internode & TransAct

Page 17: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

iiNet Ltd

Track Record has been strong:

Since 2007 EPS has grown 157%

EBITDA margin ~ 20.3%

Subscriber numbers have grown from 196K in 2008 to 826K today = considerable operating leverage

Page 18: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

iiNet

Source – iiNet Macquarie conference May 2013

Page 19: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

iiNet Ltd

How have they achieved this?

Growth in market share - service & brand

Recent acquisitions have been game changers

Innovation

Scale

Page 20: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

iiNet’s record

Why we are recommending IIN?

Continued acquisition led cost savings

Subscriber growth

New products

Potential lift in payout ratio

Corporate potential?

Page 21: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

iiNet

Threats to the business

Fixed voice line rental is a concern and must be closely watched

National Broadband Network

Page 22: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

iiNet

Key numbers

Price $5.75 - Year high/low: $6.74/$3.25

ROE 19%

FY14 PE 14.6x

FY14 Dividend yield 3.7% ff – 50% payout

Net debt of $158m; Net Debt / EBITDA 1.7x

Target price: $6.50 (price volatility)

Page 23: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

Interest rate securities

Basel III changes

APRA reassessment Tier 1 capital has led to reconstructed IRS

Focus turns to perpetual securities

“Transitional arrangements”

Strong yields

Potential for capital outcomes

Page 24: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

MBLHB

Issued November 1999

$400m of Tier 1 capital securities

Rate: 90d BBSW + 170bps

Quarterly income

Face value $100

Current price $72.50

Running yield 6.11%

Target price $80

Page 25: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

www.tmscapital.com.au [email protected]

Page 26: ASX INVESTMENT TALKS - Home - Australian … · DATE: July 2013 ASX INVESTMENT TALKS ... Investors should obtain ... Source – ResMed Q3 2013 Investor Presentation . ResMed

• Take a short online course

• Subscribe to the Investor Update e-newsletter

• Play the ASX Sharemarket Game

• Watch another ASX Investment talks presentation

KEEP LEARNING

VISIT www.asx.com.au/education