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Dr. Bernd Lemke explores the history surrounding NATO's Allied Mobile Force and the importance of its role today. By analyzing the history of NATO's crisis managment on its sout-eastern flank, Dr. Lemke explains the importance of NATO's response capabilites and how they have been utilized in the past to protect the Republic of Turkey and other NATO members by maintaining deterrence against potential military threats. Through a detailed historical analysis, Dr. Lemke demonstrates the importance of NATO's deterrence and response capabilites today and how these must be maintained in order to protect the Alliance from ongoing regional upheaval and emerging threats in the 21st century.
Citation preview
ATLANTIC TREATY ASSOCIATION
Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 9 1
Volume 3 - Issue 9 September 2013
Contents:
Crisis Management in Turkey and the Problem of Escalation:
The Allied Mobile Force From 1970-1991 and the Future of
NATO’s South-Eastern Flank
Dr. Bernd Lemke explores the history surrounding NATO’s Allied Mobile Force and the
importance of its role today. By analyzing the history of NATO’s crisis management on its
south-eastern flank, Dr. Lemke explains the importance of NATO’s response capabilities and
how they have been utilized in the past to protect the Republic of Turkey and other NATO
members by maintaining deterrence against potential military threats. Through a detailed
historical analysis, Dr. Lemke demonstrates the importance of NATO’s deterrence and re-
sponse capabilities today and how these must be maintained in order to protect the Alliance
from ongoing regional upheaval and emerging threats in the 21st century.
Crisis Management in Turkey and the Problem of Escalation
The Allied Mobile Force From 1961-2003 and the Future of NATO’s South-Eastern Flank
With increasing tension and instability
along NATO’s southern borders, no mem-
ber is more exposed to the fallout from the
ongoing civil war in Syria than Turkey.
Having always represented the focal point
of NATO’s response to any upheaval in
the Middle East, Turkey and NATO have
maintained a response capability to ensure
that the security of Turkey and NATO’s
south-eastern flank is maintained.
Having created the Allied Mobile Force
in 1960 to respond to Soviet aggression,
NATO maintained and transformed this
elite unit into the NATO Response Force
in order to ensure a rapid response capa-
bility to the emerging threats of the 21st
century.
This edition takes an in depth look at
the history of NATO’s response capabili-
ties along its south-eastern flank to deter-
mine how NATO can defend its members
and manage the crises sweeping the Middle
East. By: Jason Wiseman
Turkish Chief of Staff Gen. Necdet Ozel (right) during a tour along the border with Syria in Hatay, Turkey (Photo: Associated Press)
Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 9 2
O n the evening of 11 September 2001, the
North Atlantic Council issued a communiqué
that included an unmistakable comment on the
events of that day: “At this critical moment, the United States
can rely on its 18 Allies in North America and Europe for
assistance and support. NATO solidarity remains the essence
of our Alliance.” These sentences
addressed a core principle which was
and still is essential for the existence
of the Alliance and which also signifi-
cantly contributed to the end of the
Cold War: the common standing of
all the allies for the purposes of de-
terrence and defense against manifest
dangers and threats. This referred
not only to joint operations by their
armed forces, but especially to joint
action and the show of strength in matters of policy, military
policy, planning and organization in the broadest sense.
The importance of Alliance solidarity as a means of
defense – and not only military defense – is as old as NATO
itself. From the very beginning, NATO’s means and ends
were never merely confined to military build-up, prepara-
tions and planning for emergencies. Cohesion between all the
partners was the essential basis for deterrence, the decisive
instrument of the Alliance for preventing a war and contain-
ing Communist aggression in Europe and ultimately around
the world. Alliance solidarity and Alliance coherence were
the outstanding, if not indeed the most important prerequi-
sites for the success of NATO in almost all fields of strategy
and policy. This still holds true today and is most important
for the future of the Alliance.
No one would, however, deny that there have been
radical changes in the basic parameters of NATO’s strategy.
The turnaround of 1989/90 more or less did away with the
strategy of the Cold War (Flexible Response), which had
been in force for more than 20 years. Today, the Alliance has
to act in a global environment with specific military and polit-
ical requirements. The defence of the Alliance territory is no
longer the sole purpose of NATO.
Major confrontations, e.g.
the threat by the Warsaw Pact
against Central Europe has disap-
peared and gave way to new dis-
turbing problems. Geographically,
the crisis areas have moved south.
The Southern / South Eastern Flank
of NATO – always a troubled re-
gion – is the only region of the Alli-
ance that is confronted with actual “hot” military dangers.
Other than, e.g. in the case of Afghanistan, which is
far away from actual NATO-territory, old tasks merge with
new possibilities and scenarios. Iraq, Syria, and in a wider
perspective, Israel and the Arab world remain unstable factors
for NATO’s South Eastern European members. These situa-
tions are further complicated by the crisis in the EU / Euro
area and the still simmering conflict between Greece and
Turkey.
NATO Today: Defence in a Global Environment
The general military situation consists of old patterns
and completely new aspects. The frontiers and actors on
NATO’s side have, more or less, stayed the same. So do – at
least in formal categories – the states beyond. But there are
new important features. Despite the fact that Russia assists
some actors (e.g. Assad) no one can speak today of a bipolar
Crisis Management in Turkey and the Problem of Escalation
The Allied Mobile Force From 1961-2003 and the Future of
NATO’s South-Eastern Flank
Press briefing by NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen (Photo: NATO)
Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 9 3
world order as in the Cold War. The fringes of NATO in the
South East are no longer potential powder kegs for global nuclear
war and annihilation of mankind but one of many frontiers of se-
curity for the Alliance. From a general global point of view, ten-
sions along the border between China and India, the sea border
between Japan and China, North Korea, or maybe even the US-
Mexico border, are also very prominent and cannot be denied.
Despite all the differences between these different frontiers,
NATO and its Allies are affected by them, although, not the least
because of the actual events, the South-Eastern Region is the most
important at the moment.
In the Cold War the tasks of
NATO were purely defensive, i.e. every
effort had to be taken to avoid crises or
defuse them. The Alliance provided a huge
range of instruments for crisis management. In war - that gladly
did not happen – NATO had to wage defensive action. Today
border defence is still a prominent aspect, but now the question
of active engagement – e.g. intervention beyond the borders –
constitutes a real option. One of the instruments that could be
employed are highly mobile and versatile units consisting of spe-
cial or elite troops that are equipped with a range of special weap-
ons and equipment that could be used for defensive as well as
offensive action.
NATO’s Flanks in the Cold War
There is a long history of comparable NATO-troops that
reaches back to the sixties. At the beginning of that decade the
Alliance decided to constitute a small force for crisis manage-
ment: The Allied Mobile Force (AMF).
The AMF was designed and set up in response to the gen-
eral strategic development in the late 1950s. NAC and the Mili-
tary Committee realized that the Alliance could not respond to
local provocations or attempts by the Eastern Bloc to cause disin-
tegration with purely nuclear means as there was always the dan-
ger of nuclear escalation as the Russians caught up with the US in
the nuclear arms race.
As an almost logical consequence, NATO focused increas-
ingly on conventional defense and, subsequently, the situation on
the flanks became increasingly important. The situation there had
been precarious for political and military reasons right from the
beginning of the Cold War. In the north, this was especially
true for Norway and Denmark, which on the one hand were
only able to raise a limited number of forces and on the other
did not want to be bound too much by NATO militarily.
The two countries had even considered alternative solu-
tions for a time, one being the establishment of a neutral Scan-
dinavian military alliance together with Sweden right after the
Second World War. The most dangerous areas here were
Northern Norway (Finmark) and Zealand in the BALTAP-area.
The situation in the south or south-
east was even more threatening since the
two main allies in this region, Turkey and
Greece, were not only relatively weak in
military terms, but also in perpetual con-
flict with each other. The strategic trouble
spots in this region were the northern border in Thrace, Tur-
key’s southern border and Eastern Anatolia. Never was the
enemy to be allowed to gain control over the Bosporus and
Istanbul. Finally, there were concerns regarding the northeast-
ern border of Italy (near Istria), which would have been under
threat if a conflict had arisen over Yugoslavia.
NATO headquarters did not merely see the direct mili-
tary aspects as the main danger, but rather the risk of a weak-
ening of Alliance solidarity, which had not always been stable
due to the continued conflicts of political and military interests
in general. The deterrence of the enemy and the Alliance’s
efforts to strengthen itself were two sides of the same coin.
The Allied Mobile Force as a Tool for Deterrence and
Crisis Management
As the major tool for defence, the NATO Military
Committee considered influencing the enemy rationally and
psychologically by an effective and calculated crisis manage-
ment in an emergency. It was to be made clear to the Warsaw
Pact that the risks of aggression of any kind would far outweigh
the benefits they might yield.
The AMF was considered one of the most important
tools for precisely this purpose. Its main mission was to act as a
front-line deterrence, i.e. the units assigned to the AMF, most-
ly elite units, had to be able to move to their position on one of
the regions of the flank quickly, to act ostentatious and com-
Never was the enemy to be allowed to gain control over the Bosporus and
Istanbul.
Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 9 4
municate in a dynamic way with the public. It was espe-
cially important that the whole world realized that the
force was multinational and made up of units from power-
ful non-flank-allies (in particular the USA, the UK and the
Federal Republic of Germany). Their core mission was, so
to say, “showing the flag”.
Not only was the military element crucial for the
whole issue, but also the political one. Albeit in peace-
time, the AMF was loudly and clearly conveyed to the
public as a flexible elite force. It was made clear to the
Eastern bloc that if the AMF was deployed, it was in its
capacity as a multilateral task force, and so any such de-
ployment was to be seen as an expression of the will of all
the allies.
The AMF was to a certain degree the most distinct
military manifestation of Article 5 of the North Atlantic
Treaty. A direct mili-
tary attack on one of its
battalions would have
been considered an
attack against NATO
and each of its mem-
bers. This would have
almost automatically
resulted in an Article 5
contingency.
The AMF con-
sisted of a total of six
battalions, which were
assigned and equipped
according to the basic
military and political
perspectives and, above
all, the willingness of the member states. The headquar-
ters of the Allied Mobile Force Land [AMF (L)] were lo-
cated initially in Seckenheim/Palatinate and later collocat-
ed with the headquarters of the 7th US Army in Heidel-
berg. The air support forces consisted of 6 squadrons of
fighter bombers. Three battalions and three squadrons
were assigned to each flank (north or south).
Nevertheless, the amount of effort involved in
ensuring transport and logistical support proved to be so im-
mense that the sophisticated flight plans had to be re-
coordinated again and again. In the event of an emergency,
large volumes of equipment would have needed to be deliv-
ered to the force. Planners had projected a dynamic and pre-
cise schedule of continuous slots of different nations via dif-
ferent multiple air routes. Organizing and executing the
whole enterprise proved to be very expensive and extremely
complicated. It provides a good blueprint for the global oper-
ations of today.
In order to prevent a crisis scenario from getting out
of hand in an emergency, NATO established a range of deter-
rence and stabilization tools. Crisis management procedures
were to be applied to calm down the situation and minimize
tension. For this purpose, NATO developed special Rules of
Engagement so that appropriate action could be taken in each
situation.
The AMF was an
extremely important tool
for lower escalation sce-
narios. Its deployment in
trouble spots - northern
Norway, Denmark, Istria,
northern Greece or the
southern and eastern bor-
ders of Turkey - was
meant to be a clear warn-
ing. The focus remained
on preserving the territo-
rial integrity and political
and military coherence of
NATO in Europe even
under extreme pressure.
Although it was clear that NATO’s main purpose was
to directly defend the territory of its member states, some
partners and staffs realized that there was a much wider per-
spective to be followed. In the beginning of the 1970s, the
Americans took an intense look into the Arab states and espe-
cially the Gulf region that, because of its oil production, was
one of the most strategically important regions in the world.
Planners were increasingly alarmed by wars, insurrection,
Map of AMF contingency plans in case of Soviet aggression (Photo: Bernd Nogli, Copyright: MGFA 06406-02)
Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 9 5
political quarrels and the growing presence of the Soviet Navy
in global waters.
New Threats: NATO and Arabia
This development made itself felt in NATO’s most
prominent exercise, WINTEX. During the very first Wintex
exercise, previous concentration on
European scenarios were expanded
in a south-eastern direction. Pri-
marily on the initiative of the
American planners, the decisive
trigger for simulated confrontation in Wintex 71 was not
based on an aggravation of the situation in Europe, but on a
crisis in the Middle East.
Political radicalization after the Six-Day War formed
the background of the exercise. One of the consequences was
that the Soviet Union saw this as an opportunity to start mas-
sive political and military commitment. At the same time, the
Americans recognized the weakness of NATO’s whole south-
ern flank. A conflict, e.g. between the Arab states and Israel,
would have caused destabilization in the region, threatening
Turkey and Greece and thus NATO as a whole. Syria and Iraq
were considered to be the likely aggressors.
Despite all these American fears, NATO partners in
the Central Region did not fully appreciate this idea of a crisis
scenario. What followed, were hard discussions. Not least,
German planners believed that possible aggressions on the
part of the Warsaw Pact in Europe were already enough to
deal with, and that the focus should be on them.
They were not able to assert their views at the time,
for the NATO Military Committee approved the Middle East
scenario in June 1969. But the discussions went on.
This tendency continued in NATO’s second series of
major exercises – HILEX which started in 1968. The top
priority of the HILEX series was to exercise crisis manage-
ment tools, ie. the employment of the AMF. The practical
procedures for crisis management were exercised in the
1970s. In the respective scenarios the AMF came into play as
a crucial element, thereby ultimately highlighting its raison
d’être.
On this basis, the planning and the exercises went on.
The main practical business of the AMF was the field exercis-
es, especially the so-called Express series. Until 1990 about
100 Exercises in all contingency areas were held.
In these decades Asia continued to influence NATO.
This led to unforeseen and somewhat grave events. HILEX 9
in 1980 became, and this is not yet
really appreciated today, a water-
shed in the strategic development
of NATO and the history of its
exercises. The exercise coincided
almost exactly with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and
was therefore cancelled as a precautionary step to avoid esca-
lation. There were considerable fears within NATO that the
Soviet Union might be provoked if it became known to the
public that the Alliance was holding a high-level war and crisis
exercise while Soviet units were invading Afghanistan.
The major background here was that the United States
was increasingly drawn into the conflicts in this region. The
US saw the events at the Hindu Kush and the events in the US
embassy in Tehran at the end of 1979 as massive threats to its
interests in the Gulf and beyond. In accordance with the
Carter doctrine, which demanded unconditional resistance
against any aggression by the Eastern bloc in the Gulf, the
Americans insisted that this region was also included in
NATO’s plans. The main document for NATO was the
“South West Asia Impact Study” which in its final version was
published to all NATO partners on 26 June 1980. Albeit at
that point, the strategic perspectives of the Alliance had ex-
panded once and for all – despite criticism from the Central
Europeans.
All of this was fully implemented in HILEX 10 of
1982. The exercise concept was almost identical with HILEX
9, but at the crucial points included a new key element; the
deployment of the Rapid Defense Force (RDF), which later
became the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force (RDJTF),
the predecessor of today’s US Central Command.
The Americans immediately faced fresh criticism when
the plans for the RDF found their way into NATO exercise
plans. The fact that the deployment of the RDF demanded a
considerable share of the US airlift capacities, it therefore
endangered the reinforcement plan for the European theatre.
There were considerable fears within NATO that the Soviet Union might be provoked.
Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 9 6
This last question proved to be a fundamentally and particular-
ly serious issue. Furthermore, the RDF units comprised high-
ly mobile and highly specialized elite units (marines, mecha-
nized and airborne units).
The question of the major RDF units and the problems
of the Persian Gulf and the Middle East continued to be con-
troversial and hence remained the focus of consideration.
Fortunately, despite the War between Iran and Iraq until
1988, the situation remained
more or less stable, prevent-
ing the NATO plans from
being put to the test. This
basic strategic situation didn’t
alter until the end of the Cold
War.
Even during the great
changes of 1989/90, there
were still considerable ten-
sions regarding these two
elements: the Eurocentric perspective and the expanded out-
look of the Americans with a view to the Middle East and
even global scenarios. The issue got a new thrust by the 2nd
Gulf War, which almost coincided with German reunifica-
tion.
All of this points to possible theatres of military en-
gagement for the Alliance today. It is certainly possible that a
mission that started as a defensive exercise to guard the Alli-
ance’s frontiers expands to an intervention beyond NATO’s
borders. Especially the southern border of Turkey, which is
an area where the dividing line between Art. 5 and non Art. 5
missions might be blurred. Of course, other contingencies are
possible, e.g. individual action by partner nations with or
without the NATO framework without being attacked
(question of reacting to the employment of poison gas against
civilians in Syria). All of these are pressing topics as the warn-
ings by high ranking military officials in Washington have
publicly cautioned against any military engagement in Syria.
Only After the Cold War: The First Live Mission of
the AMF
There are some general historical examples for NATO
missions in the region, and the AMF is at the core. The only
first “live” operation of the AMF took place in 1991, already
after the end of the East-West conflict. When the situation in
the Gulf region got increasingly difficult after the forcible
occupation of Kuwait, Turkey felt threatened by Iraq and
called for Alliance solidarity.
The decision to carry out
an operation and the way it was
conducted is a very good example
for the conditions under which
multilateral task forces, in particu-
lar those of NATO, had and still
have to operate, and the problems
that have to be overcome.
In December 1990, Turkey
submitted an urgent request via the
NATO chain of command, i.e. via AFSOUTH. As planned,
the supreme decision-making body, the Defence Planning
Committee, had to discuss and decide on the request.
In this case, the position of Germany in particular was
at the center of the controversy. Turkey had hoped to imme-
diately receive a positive response, and maybe even invoke
the mutual defense clause, Article 5 of the North Atlantic
Treaty. To the disappointment of the Turks, the Germans
strictly refused to make final decisions without further con-
sultations. Especially the Americans and the British - who
were already deploying huge numbers of troops to the Gulf
region - wanted to have all the NATO partners on board at
least nominally. Subsequent debates focused on the specific
mission that would be assigned to the AMF.
It was clear from the very beginning that only the air
component of the AMF would be deployed. The three
ground force battalions remained at their home bases. Bonn
also insisted on the wording for the rules of engagement of
the air component being clear and limited. The squadrons
that were to be deployed were assigned a purely demonstra-
The NATO Response Force in training to improve their operational capabilities and response time in new terrain (Photo: NATO)
Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 9 7
For a time, the reactions at the international level were
tangible. In other countries, above all in the UK, conservative
forces appeared in public and accused the Germans of collective
cowardice. What had already been heard within NATO – criti-
cism of an alleged lack of solidarity and commitment to the Alli-
ance – was now repeated in public. The foreign policy of Hans-
Dietrich Genscher exacerbated this criticism even more.
Genscher had refused to provide forces
or at least military equipment to the Is-
raelis, offering financial resources in-
stead. This policy, which has gone down
in history as “check book diplomacy”,
came under special fire. Various camps
claimed that the Germans had become a
nation of shop-keepers who were only interested in profit, and
in an emergency, would let others do the real dangerous jobs.
Of course, these and other accusations were purposely aggres-
sive and did not do justice to the complexity of the situation.
After the Defence Planning Committee finally had
achieved the necessary compromises in the wording and com-
pleted the preparations, SACEUR issued the activation order
and the deployment began. Since the British and Americans had
already stationed their respective units in the Gulf region, other
allies did their duty. The following units were deployed:
1 Alpha Jet squadron (Germany)
1 F-104 squadron (Italy)
1 Mirage 5 squadron (Belgium)
The German squadron arrived at Erhac on 8 January
1991, where it began deterrence operations. The mission was
successful, although substantial discussions and differences of
opinion about the character of the mission continued.
The squadrons quickly began to carry out extensive train-
ing missions. Attention was paid not only to the demonstrative
effect of the flights, but also to ensure adequate training. It in-
cluded ground attacks.
Meanwhile, considerable practical difficulties arose. The
weather was so adverse at times that sorties had to be cancelled.
Furthermore, “Showing the Flag”, for some reason, proved to be
difficult. Here, the very limited performance of the Iraqi Air
tive mission and explicitly not included in the air defense of the
responsible 6th ATAF. Training flights were only allowed to be
conducted north of a 40 km zone along the Turkish-Iraqi bor-
der. This area was defined according to a similar zone estab-
lished along the inner-German border during the Cold War:
The Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Combat aircrafts
were not allowed to use it as a training area in peacetime in
order to avoid incidents. Furthermore,
the AMF units were fundamentally giv-
en permission to fire only in self-
defense.
The Germans acted primarily for
political reasons. German reunification
had only just been achieved and the concerns of the Eastern
European states had to be taken into consideration. The Soviet
Army, with over three hundred thousand soldiers, was still in
Germany until 1994. A real taste of danger was supplied on
13th January 1991 when the Russian Army attacked civilian
protesters in Lithuania with Infantry and even tanks. The result
of this Bloody Sunday in Vilnius was hundreds of injured and
dead, raising tensions throughout the Euro-Atlantic.
Furthermore, the historical burdens (historical signifi-
cance of the Second World War) were still too much at the
fore. Considerable political consequences for the German gov-
ernment were to be expected in case of any direct participa-
tion of German units in a war. In case of high losses the situa-
tion would have become even graver.
In fact, internal turmoil was not far off. As the Gulf
War drew nearer, the number of conscientious objections
soared, and there were even some in the task forces earmarked
in southern Turkey. More than 50 members of Surface to Air
Missile Wing 36, among them temporary-career volunteers in
addition to conscripts, refused to do military service under the
German conscription law. The AMF Air was less affected by
this, but was still automatically in the focus.
Pilots of the German AMF contingent spoke very pen-
sively about the operation in public. Der Spiegel magazine
wrote repeatedly and with relish that “fear” was the prevalent
feeling among the German personnel - and in German living
rooms.
This policy, which has gone down in history as “check book diplomacy”, came
under special fire.
Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 9 8
units were soon defeated by the coalition forces in the Gulf.
The AMF started to withdraw in March.
It could be said that in the end, the first “live” opera-
tion of German combat units was a successful, albeit rather
rugged premiere.
From the Allied Mobile Force (AMF) to the NATO
Response Force (NRF)
After these events, NATO’s strategy and the image of
war began to change considerably.
At first, the AMF wasn’t too affected by new perspec-
tives. On the contrary, it was initially upgraded, and plans
were made to extend it to Division size.
As a result, exercises continued to be
held, such as “Arctic Express” in 1994.
In the mid-1990s, however, the
final stage of its history began. The gen-
eral setting was the development of
NATO’s strategy after 1990 in connec-
tion with the fundamental changes in the
Alliance’s command structure. The
strategy papers of 1991, 1999 and 2006,
as well as the deployment of NATO
forces in Operation “Allied Force” against Yugoslavia, are
distinct milestones on the road to a considerable extension of
both the mission and theatres of operations. The decisive
change came about between the papers of 1991 and 1999.
The East-West conflict, which had left distinct traces in the
strategic concept of 1991, lost more and more of its im-
portance and was replaced by a more global perspective.
In the late 1990s, however, the AMF had become
obsolete in its specific structure at that time. This was in part
due to an increasing lack of tactical capabilities and in part to
the considerable innovations in the field of information tech-
nology.
Regardless of all the innovations that had been made
since 1990, the equipment and the manning of the AMF had
basically retained its old Cold War character that was charac-
terized by its relatively limited mission profile, i.e. Defense
of static choke points on the NATO Flanks. And then there
were the old problems of multilateralism. In the Cold War,
Defense played a major role. NATO’s aircraft could hardly be
detected as they operated out of the 40 km air defense identi-
fication zone. When the NATO aircraft only slightly turned
further to the north, they disappeared from the Iraqi screens.
This issue was one of the basic problems of the AMF
since its creation. On the one hand, politicians and diplomats
feared that the situation would escalate and that the conse-
quences were unforeseeable – dangers which continue to
exist to this day, albeit in a different form. On the other
hand, you cannot deter if you do not make your presence felt.
Therefore the operation remained a balancing act between
deterring the enemy and being afraid of what reaction might
follow.
The specific condi-
tions under which the sol-
diers had to execute their
mission were rather difficult
at first. The logistical struc-
tures had to be set up step-by
-step; the considerable dis-
tances that had to be covered
repeatedly hindered pro-
gress. It was noted that the
forces complained about a lack of support from the Host Na-
tion. Much had to be provided via the long transportation
routes from Germany. The commander of the German forc-
es, a lieutenant colonel, also had a full time job with receiving
members of the public and politicians. In addition to Turkish
President Özal, the force was visited by the SACEUR, Gen-
eral Galvin, the German Minister of Defense, Gerhard Stol-
tenberg, the German Parliamentary Commissioner for the
Armed Forces, Alfred Biehle, and many other dignitaries.
The press did not remain idle either and caused a number of
considerable problems. A TV team from the Saarländischer
Rundfunk broadcasting station entered the quarters without
permission and conducted interviews. The team was only
allowed to continue after a formal declaration to cease and
desist had been issued.
The general duty and leisure conditions vastly im-
proved after a few weeks. No further necessities arose.
The crisis was short-lived since the Iraqi combat
Four U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons line up at Aviano Air Base, before taking off on NATO Operation Allied Force missions
on May 21, 1999. (Photo: US DoD)
Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 9 9
rectly next to the front door of NATO. In which direction
NATO will go is still to be seen and has to be discussed.
Without any doubt the region around the Eastern
Mediterranean and the Gulf will be major theatres for years,
maybe for decades. It could well be that NATO as an alliance
will operate just the defensive part, leaving possible offensive
steps to individual Western countries, e.g. the US, the UK or
France, not excluding assistance by smaller states. The last
twenty years provided some examples for coordinated action
(e.g. “Coalition of the Willing” or engagement of individual
nations in Operation Unified
Protector against Libya in
2011).
There is also a history
behind these options. Despite
the major confrontation of the
two blocs especially along the German border and the con-
centration of huge forces in this area, there were elements of
strategic mobility in the Cold War. Almost all major NATO
partners have flexible intervention forces to be employed out
-of-area. These include:
US: Rapid Defence Joint Task Force (Gulf)
UK: UK Mobile Force (Center and Flanks in NATO)
France: Force d’Intervention Rapide – FAR
(In and out of NATO)
Italy: Forza di Intervento Rapido – FIR (i.e. out-of-area)
(Standing military e.g. US Marines, not included)
NATO always has been very flexible in dealing with
delicate questions such as out-of-area missions. Its special
decision making instruments enable it to find a common plan
of action while simultaneously tolerating dissenters without
marginalizing them. Unlike in the EU, for example, where
every important decision has to be confirmed through the
expressly positive confirmation of all the individual states,
within NATO the possibility exists for partners to remain
discretely in the background. This is ensured through a quasi
ex-negativo decision machinery (“Silence Procedure”). The
representatives of the individual members are not explicitly
asked to vote in favor of a decision, but are given merely the
option to exercise a veto. In other words, each nation of the
Alliance has the possibility, in case it has serious doubts about
the AMF only had a minimal permanent headquarters for the
land component and no command element at all for the air
component. For exercises, command organization posts often
had to be manned with reserve personnel who did not always
have adequate capabilities, even as far as language skills were
concerned. Even more problematic, most of the communica-
tion equipment and reporting channels of the AMF were ob-
solete as the new millennium grew nearer. One of the main
goals – more dynamic, efficient and flexible structures – fell
out of reach.
NATO therefore decid-
ed in favor of making a com-
pletely fresh start. It proved to
be considerably less expensive
to establish an entirely new
force, which was fully inte-
grated into the new overall concept of NATO from the out-
set. On 12 August 2002, the Defense Planning Committee
adopted a formal decision to disband the AMF as a stand alone
unit and replace it with the NATO Response Force (NRF). It
had become apparent that the rigid structures of the Cold
War were finally a thing of the past despite all the dynamiza-
tion they had begun to show since the 1970s.
Nevertheless, the AMF is an important historical fore-
runner of a flexible and deployable task force such as the
NRF. During the Cold War, there were even proposals to
build the AMF on world-wide lines like the NRF. As early as
in the 1960s, General Cadorna from Italy called for the AMF
to be topped up to the size of a division and made globally
deployable. Furthermore, he suggested that civilian and disas-
ter relief missions be added to the mission spectrum alongside
combat missions.
Actual Threats and Options
What about the south-eastern flank of NATO today?
The former contingency areas of the AMF, especially in the
South-Eastern Region, are still hot spots of global conflict.
Europe and Asia Minor are still the main defense platforms
apart from North America, for everything NATO is doing.
But, unlike the Cold War, the basis is not any longer solely a
defensive fortress, but - maybe - a springboard for global
missions. One of the most urgent crisis areas is situated di-
Without any doubt the region around the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf will be major theatres
for years, maybe for decades.
Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 9 10
any type of mission, to individually weigh in the seriousness of
its grievance. If the conditions are such that they cannot be toler-
ated, a formal letter expressly stating opposition can be submit-
ted (“Breaking the Silence”). The matter then has to be renegoti-
ated. Where less serious concerns
are involved, however, the nation
can also refrain from any opposition,
abstain from any expression and thus
pave the way for a decision. It is
then still at liberty to decide in what
way it wishes to commit itself in
practical terms later. It is then a
national task to suitably propagate
this balancing act both at home and
abroad.
In practical terms, NATO’s military hardware is run by
the individual nations under the roof of a common military head-
quarters and chains of command. So it was possible to execute
strike missions in Libya even if some members of the Alliance
refused to play an active role.
But history also shows that too much flexible pragmatism
can lead to erosion. All members, therefore, must take a cau-
tious and critical look on all actions at any time.
As already mentioned, NATO has, at least internally, not
only been dealing with the security of the Arabian peninsula
since 1991, but rather since 1970. Both then and now, the states
of continental Europe are concerned and uneasy about commit-
ting themselves in this region despite the changes in the strategic
setting.
There are reasons for this. One is that the whole region is
a tinderbox that can easily explode. Each step can be one too
many. On the other hand, doing nothing provides no guarantee
that the situation will remain stable. The Alliance needs flexible
Crisis Management that integrates all possible means, ranging
from diplomatic communication and demonstrative action to the
employment of military power.
Surely, it is not really to be expected that Syria will at-
tack NATO at the Southern border of Turkey on a large scale.
But there are a lot of elements in the area that can’t really be
judged: the different opposition groups in Syria, radical Islam-
ists, Kurdish militant groups etc. Huge masses of refugees live in
the border area. They are vulnerable targets for everyone
who wants to destabilize the region further and give a blow to
Turkey’s prestige as a regional power. And with Turkey
NATO would be in the focus as well. It would probably suf-
fice to occupy some square miles of
Turkish territory to undermine the
credibility of NATO defense. This
is a further aspect that hasn’t
changed since 1990. NATO, and
the West in general, has to avoid
the impression of powerlessness,
otherwise it would lose prestige and
strategic acceptance.
In a direct confrontation, no
matter on what scale, every effort
must be taken to clear the situation. The question of whether
or not NATO would be drawn into the conflict would be on
the agenda immediately. If the Turks asked for NATO assis-
tance, it could be necessary to deploy a rapid reaction force
with highly capable troops such as the AMF or the NRF.
The Domestic Dimension
The position of Turkey is not an easy one. While An-
kara is involved in the Arabian Peninsula, it is constantly
afraid of destabilization. This is one of the main reasons why
Ankara asked for the deployment of Patriot Air-Defense mis-
siles at the beginning of 2013 for its southern border. The
situation in Syria had considerably deteriorated. After NATO
had resolved to send rocket units to Turkey, Germany decid-
ed to contribute. As in the Cold War, the Alliance demon-
strated solidarity by deployment of military units. However,
given recent events and the escalation of conflict in Syria,
nobody knows what might happen next.
In the region, the domestic situation plays a considera-
ble role as well. This has not changed to this day and still af-
fects specific actions such as Turkey’s announcement of the
deployment of German units in 2012/2013 before the perti-
nent decision had even been made. Resulting from the do-
mestic controversy over this issue not only in Turkey, but in
all NATO member countries, Ankara relies heavily on NATO
and maneuvers between submitting requests, exerting pres-
sure and emphasizing its function as a geostrategic bridge.
US Patriot battery under NATO Command overlooking the city of Gaziantep (Turkey) (Photo: NATO)
Atlantic Voices, Volume 3, Issue 9 11
for that very reason that NATO still has its mission. The co-
herence of NATO remains a key aspect of our security, espe-
cially at this present time. At the moment, it is a regional
Alliance with global problems. Maybe, in some distant future,
it will be a global Alliance with regional problems. But no-
body knows if this will happen.
Dr. Bernd Lemke served his country with distinction in the
German Air Force from 1984-1985. He holds a PhD in
military history and specializes in German and British history.
Since 2001, Dr. Lemke has been an accomplished researcher
at the Bundeswehr Center for Military History and Social
Sciences in Germany.
This Article is based on the following articles:
1. Bernd Lemke, „Abschreckung, Provokation oder Nonvaleur?“ Die Allied Mobile Force (AMF) in den Wintex- und Hilex-Übungen 1970 – 1985, in Wege zur Wiedervereinigung, Die beiden deutschen Staaten in ihren Bündnissen, ed Oliver Bange und Bernd Lemke (Munich: Oldenbourg 2013), 311 – 334. (Deterrence, provocation of bluff? The Allied Mobile Force in the WINTEX- and HILEX-exercise 1970 -1985).
2. Bernd Lemke, Die deutsche Luftwaffe und die Allied Mobile Force 1961 - 1991, in: Gneisenau Blätter 11(2012), "Sicherheitspolitik und Luftwaffe seit 1956", S. 49 - 56, download unter: http://www.gneisenau-gesellschaft.de/downloads/gneisenau_band_11.pdf. (The German Air Force and the Allied Mobile Force 1961 – 1991).
3. Sean Maloney, “Fire Brigade or Tocsin?” NATO’s ACE Mobile Force, Flexible Response and the Cold War, in: The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol.27, No.4, December 2004, 585 – 613, download, URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1362369042000314529.
4. Götz Steinle, Allied Mobile Force, in: Truppenpraxis 2/1991, S. 121 – 125.
5. Bernd Lemke, „Abschreckung oder Provokation? Die Allied Mobile Force (AMF) und ihre Übungen 1960 – 1989“, in Military Power Revue der Schweizer Armee, Nr. 2/2010, S. 49 – 63. (Deterrence or provocation? The Allied Mobile Force and its exercises 1960 – 1989).
6. Bernd Lemke, „Globale Probleme einer regionalen Allianz: die NATO und die Frage militärischen Engagements außerhalb der Bündnisgrenzen bis 1989“ in Sicherheit und Frieden (S+F), 27.Jg. 2009, H.1, S. 24 – 30. (Global problem of a regional alliance: NATO and the question of military engagement out of area until 1989).
7. Copyright for the map: “Zentrum für Militärgeschichte und Sozialwissenschaft (ZMSBw) / Bundeswehr Center for Military History and Social Sciences (CMHSOSC), former Militärgeschichtliches Forschungsamt (MGFA). Map was designed by Bernd Nogli.” (Copyright: MGFA 06406-02).
This situation, as discomforting as it is, contrasts in some way
with the domestic landscape in the member states further west.
The setting in Germany towards global engagement has not real-
ly changed since the end of the Cold War. As in 1991, the
2012/2013 mission has broad parliamentary backing despite the
criticism from the Left. The public thinks somewhat differently.
The general feeling is usually circumscribed with the term
“friendly indifference” towards the role of the Bundeswehr in
global missions in general and skepticism against individual mis-
sions. According to a survey by Infratest/Dimap 2011, 66 per-
cent of those polled are against the prolongation of the mission in
Afghanistan.
This again is nothing new. For more than 60 years,
NATO has experienced the discrepancy between Alliance soli-
darity and domestic sensibilities, and the situation will likely
remain so. This is a basic feature and one that places extremely
high demands on anyone in a position of responsibility. It is part
of the life of a democratic alliance. What we can say, is that
NATO in its historical depth has provided many examples and
models for the present.
The Future of NATO
One fundamental question about the future of NATO as
an alliance was raised after the end of the Cold War, and is still
asked today. Has NATO outlived itself? It is a basic feature of
Western democracies that success does not automatically trans-
late into a guarantee for continued existence. As early as in the
late 1960s, in the midst of the Cold War, some people had
praised the increase in security thanks to NATO, but expressed
doubts about whether the Alliance was still necessary. Due to its
success, it has rendered itself superfluous in the eyes of many. It
is clear that the European states in particular would never have
been able to defend themselves if they had been isolated ele-
ments. In the early 1990s, there was no longer a danger from the
East. Scholars wondered whether an alliance is kept together by
external threats and falls apart as soon as these threats cease to
exist. In 1992, the American political scientist Francis Fukuyama
published his book “The End of History”. In it, he noted that
Western democracy had gained a universal victory and conclud-
ed that extensive defense efforts would in fact become superflu-
ous.
Unfortunately, this utopia did not materialize, and it is
About the author
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