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DHB population profiles, 2017–2027 1
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DHB population profiles2018-2028Statistics New Zealand projections
Auckland PO Box 108-244, Symonds StreetAuckland 1150, New Zealandt +64 (9) 373 2125
HamiltonPO Box 307, Waikato Mail Centre Hamilton 3240, New Zealandt +64 (7) 857 1202
WellingtonPO Box 7443, Wellington SouthWellington 6011, New Zealandt +64 (4) 381 6470
Acknowledgements The contents of this document are based on information provided by the Ministry of Health to Te Pou o te Whakaaro Nui (Te Pou). This work is based on Statistics New Zealand’s data which are licensed by Statistics New Zealand for re-use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. The projections were produced by Statistics New Zealand specifically for the Ministry of Health according to assumptions specified by the Ministry, and are based on the 2013 Population census estimated resident population.
More detailed information, including primary and secondary ethnicity, age groups, and gender, can be requested from Statistics New Zealand, the Ministry of Health, or Te Pou o te Whakaaro Nui.
Published in April 2018 by Te Pou o te Whakaaro NuiPO Box 108-244, Symonds St, Auckland, New Zealand
ISBN 978-1-98-855100-5
Recommended citation:Te Pou o te Whakaaro Nui. (2018). DHB population profiles, 2018-2028: Statistics New
Zealand projections 2017 update. Auckland: Te Pou o te Whakaaro Nui.
2 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
ContentsAcknowledgements..................................................................................................................2List of tables............................................................................................................................. 3Background.............................................................................................................................. 5
Important information........................................................................................................................Population projections tables..................................................................................................6
Total population (all age groups) by ethnicity.....................................................................................Child and youth population (up to 19 years) by ethnicity.................................................................Adult population (20 to 64 years) by ethnicity..................................................................................Older adult population (65 years and older) by ethnicity..................................................................
Appendix................................................................................................................................ 26Technical notes: District health boards ethnic group population projections, 2014–43 (2013-Base) – 2017 update...............................................................................................................
1. General Comment................................................................................................... 262. Method....................................................................................................................263. Base Population.......................................................................................................274. Projection Assumptions...........................................................................................275. Changes in National Population Projections Assumptions.......................................286. Changes in DHB Net Migration Levels from Last Year..............................................297. Nature of Projections...............................................................................................29
References............................................................................................................................. 31
List of tablesTable 1. Total population projections for all age and ethnic groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality................................................................................6Table 2. Māori population projections for all age groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality...........................................................................................................7Table 3. Pasifika population projections for all age groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality..................................................................................................8Table 4. Asian population projections for all age groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality...........................................................................................................9Table 5. Other ethnic groups’ population projections for all age groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality..............................................................................10Table 6. Child and youth population projections (up to 19 years), for all ethnic groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality.....................................................11
DHB population profiles, 2018–20283
Table 7. Māori child and youth population projections (up to 19 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality..............................................................................12Table 8. Pasifika child and youth population projections (up to 19 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality..............................................................................13Table 9. Asian child and youth population projections (up to 19 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality..............................................................................14Table 10. Other ethnic groups’ Child and youth population projections (up to 19 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality.....................................................15Table 11. Adult population projections (20 to 64 years) for all ethnic groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality..........................................................................16Table 12. Māori adult population projections (20 to 64 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality................................................................................................17Table 13. Pasifika adult population projections (20 to 64 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality..............................................................................18Table 14. Asian adult population projections (20 to 64 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality................................................................................................19Table 15. Other ethnic groups’ adult population projections (20 to 64 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality..........................................................................20Table 16. Older adult population projections (65 years and older) for all ethnic groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality.....................................................21Table 17. Māori older adult population projections (65 years and older), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality..............................................................................22Table 18. Pasifika older adult population projections (65 years and older), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality..............................................................................23Table 19. Asian older adult population projections (65 years and older), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality..............................................................................24Table 20. Other ethnic groups’ older adult population projections (65 years and older), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality.....................................................25
4 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
BackgroundTo be effective, workforce planning and development needs to be grounded in an understanding of the current population profile, and to anticipate the changes in population size and composition that are likely to occur in the future. Population projections provide vital information to help people involved in workforce planning determine:
what services they need to offer in the future the workforce changes that are needed to reach those service goals.2
This resource summarises population projection information updated for 2017 by Statistics New Zealand specifically for the Ministry of Health and according to assumptions provided by the Ministry,1 and in line with changes to government immigration policy affecting long term annual migration volume.
The tables provided here summarise the population projections by DHB-locality and region, for each year from 2018 to 2028 inclusive. The information is reported in total, and by age and ethnic groups.
This information will support people involved in workforce planning to profile their DHB-locality’s current population, and provides projections to help users explore the future population changes they need to factor into workforce planning and development activities, for up to 10 years in the future.
Important information The data tables provided in this document can be copied into Excel spreadsheets to enable users to make calculations relevant to their planning needs, for example to calculate the different ethnic groups’ proportionate change in population over time.
The following provides other useful information for users of this resource. DHB-locality totals provided for each DHB-locality summarise unique individuals. Regional totals are the sum of DHB-locality information. Ethnic group totals are based upon prioritised ethnicity, so this means that
individuals are counted in only one ethnic group. People who identified themselves to the 2013 Population Census within more than one ethnic group have had their ethnicity prioritised in the following order – Māori, Pasifika, Asian, then Other.
The projections provided here are based on the medium series of projections.
More information is provided in Statistics New Zealand’s technical notes, which are included in the Appendix to this document.
DHB population profiles, 2018–20285
6 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
Population projections tablesTotal population (all age groups) by ethnicity
Table 1. Total population projections for all age and ethnic groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 538,840 552,350 564,300 574,780 583,190 591,650 599,950 608,170 616,330 624,270 632,110 Counties Manukau 557,790 568,730 578,660 586,930 594,180 601,360 608,530 615,610 622,580 629,500 636,170 Northland 178,500 180,150 181,640 182,940 183,910 185,000 186,020 187,030 188,030 189,070 190,010 Waitematā 622,350 635,680 647,430 658,220 668,450 678,740 689,000 699,110 709,140 718,930 728,600
Northern total 1,897,480 1,936,910 1,972,030 2,002,870 2,029,730 2,056,750 2,083,500 2,109,920 2,136,080 2,161,770 2,186,890 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 236,820 240,050 242,940 245,290 247,430 249,470 251,600 253,740 255,870 257,910 259,950 Lakes 110,040 110,870 111,350 111,790 111,990 112,210 112,440 112,680 112,880 113,170 113,400 Tairāwhiti 48,965 49,210 49,325 49,475 49,555 49,715 49,845 49,880 50,070 50,145 50,285 Taranaki 119,640 120,330 121,065 121,650 122,075 122,535 123,105 123,620 124,105 124,630 125,125 Waikato 417,130 422,710 427,540 431,670 435,470 439,150 442,890 446,560 450,130 453,750 457,200
Midland total 932,595 943,170 952,220 959,875 966,520 973,080 979,880 986,480 993,055 999,605 1,005,960 Central region
Capital and Coast 316,620 319,590 322,160 324,360 326,210 328,140 330,050 331,960 333,880 335,740 337,550 Hawkes Bay 165,360 165,960 166,510 167,020 167,460 167,970 168,230 168,640 169,060 169,460 169,830 Hutt Valley 149,270 150,040 150,860 151,360 151,730 152,090 152,470 152,920 153,290 153,620 154,010 MidCentral 178,240 179,400 180,290 181,070 181,700 182,400 183,150 183,860 184,570 185,310 185,990 Wairarapa 44,845 45,090 45,230 45,400 45,485 45,610 45,765 45,880 46,050 46,170 46,245 Whanganui 64,565 64,550 64,535 64,510 64,555 64,540 64,455 64,385 64,325 64,240 64,220
Central total 918,900 924,630 929,585 933,720 937,140 940,750 944,120 947,645 951,175 954,540 957,845 South Island region
Canterbury 562,870 572,810 581,990 589,060 594,690 600,280 605,870 611,270 616,710 622,010 627,160 Nelson Marlborough 150,280 151,240 152,090 152,920 153,550 154,170 154,860 155,560 156,140 156,730 157,330 South Canterbury 60,025 60,400 60,640 60,940 61,050 61,280 61,575 61,765 61,920 62,155 62,400 Southern 328,230 331,590 334,050 335,770 337,200 338,550 339,880 341,280 342,600 343,940 345,170 West Coast 32,445 32,390 32,355 32,365 32,335 32,275 32,175 32,120 32,060 31,990 31,900
South Island total 1,133,850 1,148,430 1,161,125 1,171,055 1,178,825 1,186,555 1,194,360 1,201,995 1,209,430 1,216,825 1,223,960 Grand Total 4,882,825 4,953,140 5,014,960 5,067,520 5,112,215 5,157,135 5,201,860 5,246,040 5,289,740 5,332,740 5,374,655
DHB population profiles, 2018–20287
Table 2. Māori population projections for all age groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 42,940 43,760 44,600 45,400 46,190 47,020 47,740 48,500 49,300 50,070 50,880 Counties Manukau 87,810 89,360 90,910 92,480 94,030 95,560 97,010 98,510 100,030 101,620 103,120 Northland 60,210 61,180 62,240 63,230 64,160 65,140 66,110 67,130 68,150 69,170 70,200 Waitematā 61,450 62,610 63,770 64,930 66,100 67,250 68,320 69,400 70,520 71,640 72,780
Northern total 252,410 256,910 261,520 266,040 270,480 274,970 279,180 283,540 288,000 292,500 296,980 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 58,880 59,830 60,770 61,690 62,610 63,530 64,420 65,300 66,260 67,220 68,130 Lakes 38,060 38,470 38,930 39,360 39,770 40,190 40,580 40,970 41,360 41,770 42,160 Tairāwhiti 24,570 24,870 25,050 25,320 25,540 25,780 26,000 26,130 26,390 26,590 26,790 Taranaki 22,890 23,330 23,840 24,260 24,670 25,120 25,580 26,040 26,510 26,990 27,470 Waikato 94,740 96,620 98,470 100,310 102,170 103,980 105,770 107,590 109,450 111,320 113,190
Midland total 239,140 243,120 247,060 250,940 254,760 258,600 262,350 266,030 269,970 273,890 277,740 Central region
Capital and Coast 36,090 36,710 37,320 37,950 38,580 39,190 39,810 40,400 41,000 41,670 42,280 Hawkes Bay 42,850 43,440 44,080 44,690 45,260 45,880 46,460 47,080 47,710 48,340 49,020 Hutt Valley 25,910 26,310 26,710 27,110 27,490 27,880 28,240 28,660 29,020 29,420 29,800 MidCentral 35,700 36,480 37,220 37,970 38,700 39,430 40,190 40,950 41,770 42,560 43,340 Wairarapa 7,840 8,050 8,200 8,360 8,540 8,720 8,880 9,090 9,280 9,510 9,650 Whanganui 17,160 17,400 17,570 17,780 17,980 18,150 18,310 18,500 18,680 18,880 19,030
Central total 165,550 168,390 171,100 173,860 176,550 179,250 181,890 184,680 187,460 190,380 193,120 South Island region
Canterbury 51,170 52,520 53,940 55,300 56,650 57,960 59,280 60,640 62,010 63,380 64,750 Nelson Marlborough 15,790 16,140 16,480 16,860 17,250 17,580 17,980 18,420 18,770 19,150 19,590 South Canterbury 5,150 5,300 5,480 5,630 5,760 5,920 6,100 6,230 6,390 6,550 6,730 Southern 33,040 33,810 34,470 35,210 35,900 36,570 37,270 37,980 38,680 39,400 40,100 West Coast 3,940 3,950 4,000 4,050 4,130 4,180 4,200 4,290 4,340 4,380 4,410
South Island total 109,090 111,720 114,370 117,050 119,690 122,210 124,830 127,560 130,190 132,860 135,580 Grand Total 766,190 780,140 794,050 807,890 821,480 835,030 848,250 861,810 875,620 889,630 903,420
8 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
Table 3. Pasifika population projections for all age groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 55,660 56,280 56,880 57,510 58,120 58,690 59,310 59,960 60,610 61,230 61,920 Counties Manukau 117,850 120,110 122,320 124,510 126,640 128,740 130,840 132,940 135,010 137,160 139,380 Northland 3,780 3,900 3,980 4,150 4,210 4,350 4,420 4,530 4,600 4,740 4,850 Waitematā 43,610 44,560 45,500 46,390 47,320 48,230 49,120 50,020 50,980 51,900 52,870
Northern total 220,900 224,850 228,680 232,560 236,290 240,010 243,690 247,450 251,200 255,030 259,020 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 4,400 4,540 4,700 4,840 5,020 5,150 5,290 5,410 5,590 5,690 5,850 Lakes 2,640 2,650 2,630 2,660 2,640 2,680 2,660 2,650 2,620 2,620 2,580 Tairāwhiti 1,240 1,285 1,305 1,340 1,360 1,385 1,405 1,435 1,460 1,485 1,520 Taranaki 1,470 1,530 1,565 1,630 1,665 1,705 1,765 1,820 1,865 1,920 1,955 Waikato 13,000 13,390 13,800 14,170 14,560 14,920 15,310 15,590 15,930 16,290 16,640
Midland total 22,750 23,395 24,000 24,640 25,245 25,840 26,430 26,905 27,465 28,005 28,545 Central region
Capital and Coast 22,180 22,340 22,520 22,680 22,810 22,960 23,080 23,160 23,320 23,390 23,510 Hawkes Bay 6,370 6,490 6,610 6,750 6,890 7,060 7,150 7,280 7,430 7,590 7,710 Hutt Valley 11,720 11,810 11,950 12,020 12,130 12,210 12,280 12,370 12,460 12,510 12,620 MidCentral 5,410 5,570 5,690 5,830 5,940 6,100 6,190 6,310 6,480 6,630 6,790 Wairarapa 920 930 945 955 955 980 1,000 1,025 1,030 1,030 1,045 Whanganui 1,665 1,710 1,755 1,780 1,825 1,870 1,905 1,935 1,965 1,980 2,030
Central total 48,265 48,850 49,470 50,015 50,550 51,180 51,605 52,080 52,685 53,130 53,705 South Island region
Canterbury 13,790 14,220 14,630 15,000 15,420 15,800 16,240 16,580 16,970 17,380 17,800 Nelson Marlborough 2,540 2,600 2,700 2,790 2,870 2,940 3,020 3,070 3,170 3,240 3,260 South Canterbury 665 720 750 780 810 840 865 905 940 965 1,000 Southern 6,680 6,920 7,130 7,340 7,560 7,760 7,960 8,170 8,370 8,550 8,790 West Coast 385 400 420 445 445 465 490 500 540 540 550
South Island total 24,060 24,860 25,630 26,355 27,105 27,805 28,575 29,225 29,990 30,675 31,400 Grand Total 315,975 321,955 327,780 333,570 339,190 344,835 350,300 355,660 361,340 366,840 372,670
DHB population profiles, 2018–20289
Table 4. Asian population projections for all age groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 178,230 187,190 195,290 202,460 208,490 214,520 220,710 226,900 233,040 239,090 245,120 Counties Manukau 144,210 150,250 155,720 160,600 164,720 168,750 172,430 176,090 179,750 183,320 186,890 Northland 7,450 7,990 8,480 8,910 9,260 9,610 9,960 10,270 10,620 10,950 11,300 Waitematā 137,430 145,240 152,240 158,490 163,720 168,970 174,410 179,880 185,200 190,570 195,860
Northern total 467,320 490,670 511,730 530,460 546,190 561,850 577,510 593,140 608,610 623,930 639,170 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 18,140 19,260 20,300 21,180 21,990 22,740 23,520 24,320 25,090 25,870 26,630 Lakes 9,290 9,800 10,210 10,670 11,000 11,290 11,580 11,910 12,230 12,590 12,870 Tairāwhiti 1,345 1,385 1,420 1,455 1,485 1,520 1,560 1,585 1,630 1,670 1,695 Taranaki 5,730 5,990 6,270 6,510 6,700 6,880 7,090 7,310 7,530 7,750 7,980 Waikato 41,320 43,550 45,540 47,310 48,810 50,320 51,670 53,070 54,380 55,750 57,060
Midland total 75,825 79,985 83,740 87,125 89,985 92,750 95,420 98,195 100,860 103,630 106,235 Central region
Capital and Coast 47,030 49,170 51,110 52,830 54,260 55,760 57,200 58,740 60,250 61,750 63,190 Hawkes Bay 8,300 8,800 9,230 9,630 10,040 10,350 10,740 11,150 11,600 12,000 12,360 Hutt Valley 17,560 18,250 18,890 19,420 19,910 20,390 20,850 21,270 21,740 22,180 22,590 MidCentral 14,190 14,870 15,420 15,930 16,370 16,790 17,270 17,700 18,090 18,550 18,990 Wairarapa 1,305 1,400 1,455 1,535 1,580 1,620 1,705 1,755 1,820 1,880 1,940 Whanganui 2,730 2,920 3,120 3,270 3,460 3,590 3,760 3,930 4,110 4,290 4,490
Central total 91,115 95,410 99,225 102,615 105,620 108,500 111,525 114,545 117,610 120,650 123,560 South Island region
Canterbury 57,120 60,550 63,690 66,390 68,690 70,970 72,930 74,820 76,720 78,610 80,440 Nelson Marlborough 6,850 7,330 7,770 8,190 8,480 8,810 9,220 9,640 10,040 10,420 10,830 South Canterbury 2,340 2,530 2,660 2,830 2,900 3,040 3,210 3,350 3,470 3,630 3,770 Southern 23,290 24,630 25,750 26,770 27,650 28,530 29,330 30,190 31,010 31,880 32,670 West Coast 1,080 1,120 1,165 1,210 1,240 1,260 1,295 1,300 1,340 1,390 1,410
South Island total 90,680 96,160 101,035 105,390 108,960 112,610 115,985 119,300 122,580 125,930 129,120 Grand Total 724,940 762,225 795,730 825,590 850,755 875,710 900,440 925,180 949,660 974,140 998,085
10 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
Table 5. Other ethnic groups’ population projections for all age groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 262,010 265,120 267,530 269,410 270,390 271,420 272,190 272,810 273,380 273,880 274,190 Counties Manukau 207,920 209,010 209,710 209,340 208,790 208,310 208,250 208,070 207,790 207,400 206,780 Northland 107,060 107,080 106,940 106,650 106,280 105,900 105,530 105,100 104,660 104,210 103,660 Waitematā 379,860 383,270 385,920 388,410 391,310 394,290 397,150 399,810 402,440 404,820 407,090
Northern total 956,850 964,480 970,100 973,810 976,770 979,920 983,120 985,790 988,270 990,310 991,720 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 155,400 156,420 157,170 157,580 157,810 158,050 158,370 158,710 158,930 159,130 159,340 Lakes 60,050 59,950 59,580 59,100 58,580 58,050 57,620 57,150 56,670 56,190 55,790 Tairāwhiti 21,810 21,670 21,550 21,360 21,170 21,030 20,880 20,730 20,590 20,400 20,280 Taranaki 89,550 89,480 89,390 89,250 89,040 88,830 88,670 88,450 88,200 87,970 87,720 Waikato 268,070 269,150 269,730 269,880 269,930 269,930 270,140 270,310 270,370 270,390 270,310
Midland total 594,880 596,670 597,420 597,170 596,530 595,890 595,680 595,350 594,760 594,080 593,440 Central region
Capital and Coast 211,320 211,370 211,210 210,900 210,560 210,230 209,960 209,660 209,310 208,930 208,570 Hawkes Bay 107,840 107,230 106,590 105,950 105,270 104,680 103,880 103,130 102,320 101,530 100,740 Hutt Valley 94,080 93,670 93,310 92,810 92,200 91,610 91,100 90,620 90,070 89,510 89,000 MidCentral 122,940 122,480 121,960 121,340 120,690 120,080 119,500 118,900 118,230 117,570 116,870 Wairarapa 34,780 34,710 34,630 34,550 34,410 34,290 34,180 34,010 33,920 33,750 33,610 Whanganui 43,010 42,520 42,090 41,680 41,290 40,930 40,480 40,020 39,570 39,090 38,670
Central total 613,970 611,980 609,790 607,230 604,420 601,820 599,100 596,340 593,420 590,380 587,460 South Island region
Canterbury 440,790 445,520 449,730 452,370 453,930 455,550 457,420 459,230 461,010 462,640 464,170 Nelson Marlborough 125,100 125,170 125,140 125,080 124,950 124,840 124,640 124,430 124,160 123,920 123,650 South Canterbury 51,870 51,850 51,750 51,700 51,580 51,480 51,400 51,280 51,120 51,010 50,900 Southern 265,220 266,230 266,700 266,450 266,090 265,690 265,320 264,940 264,540 264,110 263,610 West Coast 27,040 26,920 26,770 26,660 26,520 26,370 26,190 26,030 25,840 25,680 25,530
South Island total 910,020 915,690 920,090 922,260 923,070 923,930 924,970 925,910 926,670 927,360 927,860 Grand Total 3,075,720 3,088,820 3,097,400 3,100,470 3,100,790 3,101,560 3,102,870 3,103,390 3,103,120 3,102,130 3,100,480
DHB population profiles, 2018–202811
Child and youth population (up to 19 years) by ethnicity
Table 6. Child and youth population projections (up to 19 years), for all ethnic groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 117,430 118,290 118,980 119,730 120,430 121,130 122,080 123,140 124,080 124,920 125,400 Counties Manukau 160,920 161,840 162,240 162,560 163,100 163,790 164,590 165,690 166,690 167,380 167,540 Northland 49,110 49,210 49,170 49,200 49,270 49,300 49,360 49,440 49,500 49,320 49,170 Waitematā 158,180 159,930 161,260 162,560 164,430 166,320 168,250 170,390 172,400 174,050 175,140
Northern total 485,640 489,270 491,650 494,050 497,230 500,540 504,280 508,660 512,670 515,670 517,250 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 62,620 62,910 63,110 63,200 63,380 63,720 63,980 64,320 64,650 64,720 64,760 Lakes 30,810 30,800 30,560 30,330 30,240 30,030 29,950 29,770 29,700 29,500 29,330 Tairāwhiti 15,220 15,230 15,160 15,040 15,020 14,905 14,850 14,775 14,715 14,600 14,515 Taranaki 32,305 32,330 32,335 32,315 32,385 32,435 32,540 32,560 32,595 32,490 32,300 Waikato 115,150 115,780 116,150 116,510 116,990 117,640 118,310 118,910 119,520 119,830 119,790
Midland total 256,105 257,050 257,315 257,395 258,015 258,730 259,630 260,335 261,180 261,140 260,695 Central region
Capital and Coast 77,100 77,020 76,720 76,420 76,240 76,010 75,780 75,790 75,660 75,410 75,110 Hawkes Bay 45,740 45,630 45,290 45,140 44,960 44,830 44,630 44,550 44,490 44,230 43,910 Hutt Valley 39,480 39,330 39,140 38,840 38,590 38,430 38,240 38,180 38,020 37,780 37,480 MidCentral 47,210 47,130 46,960 46,780 46,710 46,690 46,750 46,790 46,710 46,650 46,360 Wairarapa 11,255 11,220 11,170 11,140 11,105 11,105 11,080 11,060 11,025 10,935 10,850 Whanganui 17,155 17,135 17,050 16,940 16,885 16,860 16,800 16,765 16,785 16,680 16,580
Central total 237,940 237,465 236,330 235,260 234,490 233,925 233,280 233,135 232,690 231,685 230,290 South Island region
Canterbury 139,410 140,940 142,150 143,050 143,800 144,660 145,440 146,400 147,280 147,650 147,690 Nelson Marlborough 35,870 35,770 35,560 35,370 35,270 35,110 34,830 34,730 34,500 34,250 33,830 South Canterbury 14,280 14,280 14,230 14,285 14,255 14,315 14,420 14,475 14,515 14,510 14,465 Southern 81,750 81,960 81,940 81,750 81,650 81,670 81,680 81,640 81,690 81,510 81,210 West Coast 7,830 7,770 7,755 7,670 7,625 7,555 7,510 7,450 7,390 7,295 7,205
South Island total 279,140 280,720 281,635 282,125 282,600 283,310 283,880 284,695 285,375 285,215 284,400 Grand Total 1,258,825 1,264,505 1,266,930 1,268,830 1,272,335 1,276,505 1,281,070 1,286,825 1,291,915 1,293,710 1,292,635
12 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
Table 7. Māori child and youth population projections (up to 19 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 14,190 14,160 14,200 14,220 14,260 14,300 14,380 14,420 14,450 14,510 14,560 Counties Manukau 38,300 38,600 38,810 39,040 39,400 39,700 40,020 40,340 40,520 40,710 40,780 Northland 25,610 25,840 26,070 26,310 26,640 26,960 27,280 27,590 27,820 27,950 28,090 Waitematā 26,110 26,470 26,780 27,100 27,460 27,870 28,210 28,510 28,740 28,960 29,100
Northern total 104,210 105,070 105,860 106,670 107,760 108,830 109,890 110,860 111,530 112,130 112,530 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 25,560 25,890 26,170 26,470 26,800 27,200 27,480 27,760 28,040 28,160 28,310 Lakes 15,960 16,090 16,100 16,170 16,280 16,310 16,420 16,420 16,490 16,470 16,470 Tairāwhiti 10,020 10,070 10,080 10,080 10,110 10,120 10,120 10,100 10,090 10,070 10,010 Taranaki 9,920 10,040 10,160 10,230 10,370 10,520 10,630 10,780 10,930 11,010 11,050 Waikato 40,990 41,630 42,210 42,770 43,480 44,160 44,780 45,380 45,900 46,320 46,640
Midland total 102,450 103,720 104,720 105,720 107,040 108,310 109,430 110,440 111,450 112,030 112,480 Central region
Capital and Coast 13,870 14,040 14,180 14,300 14,510 14,650 14,820 15,030 15,110 15,180 15,230 Hawkes Bay 18,990 19,230 19,370 19,590 19,800 20,070 20,330 20,560 20,750 20,920 21,030 Hutt Valley 11,100 11,260 11,370 11,520 11,610 11,740 11,800 11,940 12,030 12,090 12,160 MidCentral 15,560 15,740 15,960 16,160 16,400 16,670 16,920 17,170 17,360 17,590 17,650 Wairarapa 3,350 3,410 3,470 3,510 3,580 3,660 3,720 3,790 3,850 3,900 3,940 Whanganui 7,190 7,330 7,350 7,410 7,460 7,500 7,540 7,600 7,670 7,690 7,710
Central total 70,060 71,010 71,700 72,490 73,360 74,290 75,130 76,090 76,770 77,370 77,720 South Island region
Canterbury 21,330 21,820 22,320 22,830 23,350 23,890 24,330 24,880 25,370 25,710 25,980 Nelson Marlborough 6,750 6,850 6,950 7,090 7,230 7,360 7,460 7,670 7,780 7,910 8,000 South Canterbury 2,300 2,340 2,370 2,430 2,460 2,530 2,610 2,650 2,690 2,750 2,820 Southern 14,200 14,390 14,630 14,850 15,070 15,290 15,510 15,680 15,870 16,020 16,160 West Coast 1,590 1,590 1,600 1,590 1,610 1,620 1,640 1,660 1,670 1,690 1,690
South Island total 46,170 46,990 47,870 48,790 49,720 50,690 51,550 52,540 53,380 54,080 54,650 Grand Total 322,890 326,790 330,150 333,670 337,880 342,120 346,000 349,930 353,130 355,610 357,380
DHB population profiles, 2018–202813
Table 8. Pasifika child and youth population projections (up to 19 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 18,880 18,640 18,400 18,200 18,030 17,890 17,780 17,780 17,700 17,660 17,600 Counties Manukau 45,120 45,060 44,910 44,800 44,860 44,990 45,100 45,380 45,690 45,890 46,020 Northland 1,520 1,580 1,570 1,610 1,650 1,670 1,710 1,730 1,750 1,790 1,810 Waitematā 16,140 16,280 16,380 16,450 16,570 16,700 16,830 17,010 17,170 17,320 17,420
Northern total 81,660 81,560 81,260 81,060 81,110 81,250 81,420 81,900 82,310 82,660 82,850 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 1,830 1,890 1,930 2,000 2,060 2,120 2,160 2,210 2,260 2,320 2,360 Lakes 1,050 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,110 1,130 1,130 1,150 1,120 1,130 1,120 Tairāwhiti 460 470 475 480 495 495 495 500 505 505 515 Taranaki 605 620 625 655 665 665 690 710 725 730 750 Waikato 5,150 5,300 5,480 5,620 5,770 5,910 6,050 6,160 6,310 6,390 6,480
Midland total 9,095 9,380 9,610 9,855 10,100 10,320 10,525 10,730 10,920 11,075 11,225 Central region
Capital and Coast 7,930 7,930 7,960 8,000 8,060 8,130 8,150 8,180 8,230 8,270 8,320 Hawkes Bay 2,720 2,770 2,810 2,880 2,960 3,030 3,080 3,140 3,220 3,270 3,340 Hutt Valley 4,440 4,460 4,520 4,520 4,530 4,560 4,570 4,590 4,590 4,570 4,570 MidCentral 2,350 2,420 2,460 2,520 2,600 2,630 2,720 2,750 2,820 2,890 2,940 Wairarapa 400 400 410 410 405 410 420 425 430 420 425 Whanganui 695 725 750 770 785 810 810 835 845 850 850
Central total 18,535 18,705 18,910 19,100 19,340 19,570 19,750 19,920 20,135 20,270 20,445 South Island region
Canterbury 5,570 5,750 5,940 6,110 6,310 6,460 6,650 6,800 6,990 7,120 7,260 Nelson Marlborough 1,070 1,090 1,120 1,160 1,180 1,200 1,230 1,230 1,250 1,270 1,260 South Canterbury 300 330 340 355 365 385 400 415 425 440 455 Southern 2,740 2,830 2,930 3,000 3,090 3,170 3,240 3,330 3,390 3,460 3,510 West Coast 150 145 140 160 160 165 170 180 180 175 175
South Island total 9,830 10,145 10,470 10,785 11,105 11,380 11,690 11,955 12,235 12,465 12,660 Grand Total 119,120 119,790 120,250 120,800 121,655 122,520 123,385 124,505 125,600 126,470 127,180
14 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
Table 9. Asian child and youth population projections (up to 19 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 34,070 34,920 35,730 36,600 37,550 38,500 39,590 40,820 42,070 43,230 44,290 Counties Manukau 36,850 38,180 39,290 40,390 41,380 42,320 43,050 43,790 44,510 45,110 45,560 Northland 2,070 2,210 2,340 2,480 2,580 2,680 2,760 2,830 2,940 3,030 3,100 Waitematā 34,860 36,810 38,590 40,250 41,830 43,370 44,880 46,400 47,930 49,360 50,610
Northern total 107,850 112,120 115,950 119,720 123,340 126,870 130,280 133,840 137,450 140,730 143,560 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 5,150 5,440 5,720 5,930 6,090 6,250 6,380 6,580 6,710 6,860 7,000 Lakes 2,250 2,370 2,450 2,550 2,640 2,680 2,740 2,790 2,860 2,930 2,990 Tairāwhiti 360 370 375 380 375 380 385 385 400 395 400 Taranaki 1,680 1,780 1,870 1,950 2,030 2,100 2,180 2,240 2,310 2,380 2,440 Waikato 11,620 12,290 12,870 13,420 13,870 14,320 14,700 15,040 15,380 15,750 15,980
Midland total 21,060 22,250 23,285 24,230 25,005 25,730 26,385 27,035 27,660 28,315 28,810 Central region
Capital and Coast 11,770 12,280 12,690 13,070 13,400 13,770 14,070 14,460 14,840 15,170 15,460 Hawkes Bay 2,340 2,510 2,640 2,780 2,900 2,980 3,100 3,220 3,350 3,460 3,560 Hutt Valley 4,820 5,030 5,170 5,320 5,480 5,620 5,770 5,900 6,040 6,160 6,260 MidCentral 4,060 4,220 4,360 4,500 4,600 4,710 4,810 4,930 5,020 5,110 5,210 Wairarapa 355 380 400 420 440 455 490 505 515 535 555 Whanganui 770 820 880 900 960 1,000 1,040 1,090 1,160 1,200 1,250
Central total 24,115 25,240 26,140 26,990 27,780 28,535 29,280 30,105 30,925 31,635 32,295 South Island region
Canterbury 15,980 16,960 17,890 18,750 19,510 20,240 20,860 21,470 22,060 22,530 23,000 Nelson Marlborough 2,020 2,150 2,280 2,380 2,460 2,540 2,680 2,810 2,920 3,000 3,090 South Canterbury 650 710 730 790 810 840 900 950 990 1,030 1,070 Southern 6,170 6,400 6,570 6,770 6,930 7,130 7,300 7,500 7,680 7,870 8,050 West Coast 270 275 285 300 305 310 320 320 330 330 340
South Island total 25,090 26,495 27,755 28,990 30,015 31,060 32,060 33,050 33,980 34,760 35,550 Grand Total 178,115 186,105 193,130 199,930 206,140 212,195 218,005 224,030 230,015 235,440 240,215
DHB population profiles, 2018–202815
Table 10. Other ethnic groups’ child and youth population projections (up to 19 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 50,290 50,570 50,650 50,710 50,590 50,440 50,330 50,120 49,860 49,520 48,950 Counties Manukau 40,650 40,000 39,230 38,330 37,460 36,780 36,420 36,180 35,970 35,670 35,180 Northland 19,910 19,580 19,190 18,800 18,400 17,990 17,610 17,290 16,990 16,550 16,170 Waitematā 81,070 80,370 79,510 78,760 78,570 78,380 78,330 78,470 78,560 78,410 78,010
Northern total 191,920 190,520 188,580 186,600 185,020 183,590 182,690 182,060 181,380 180,150 178,310 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 30,080 29,690 29,290 28,800 28,430 28,150 27,960 27,770 27,640 27,380 27,090 Lakes 11,550 11,240 10,910 10,510 10,210 9,910 9,660 9,410 9,230 8,970 8,750 Tairāwhiti 4,380 4,320 4,230 4,100 4,040 3,910 3,850 3,790 3,720 3,630 3,590 Taranaki 20,100 19,890 19,680 19,480 19,320 19,150 19,040 18,830 18,630 18,370 18,060 Waikato 57,390 56,560 55,590 54,700 53,870 53,250 52,780 52,330 51,930 51,370 50,690
Midland total 123,500 121,700 119,700 117,590 115,870 114,370 113,290 112,130 111,150 109,720 108,180 Central region
Capital and Coast 43,530 42,770 41,890 41,050 40,270 39,460 38,740 38,120 37,480 36,790 36,100 Hawkes Bay 21,690 21,120 20,470 19,890 19,300 18,750 18,120 17,630 17,170 16,580 15,980 Hutt Valley 19,120 18,580 18,080 17,480 16,970 16,510 16,100 15,750 15,360 14,960 14,490 MidCentral 25,240 24,750 24,180 23,600 23,110 22,680 22,300 21,940 21,510 21,060 20,560 Wairarapa 7,150 7,030 6,890 6,800 6,680 6,580 6,450 6,340 6,230 6,080 5,930 Whanganui 8,500 8,260 8,070 7,860 7,680 7,550 7,410 7,240 7,110 6,940 6,770
Central total 125,230 122,510 119,580 116,680 114,010 111,530 109,120 107,020 104,860 102,410 99,830 South Island region
Canterbury 96,530 96,410 96,000 95,360 94,630 94,070 93,600 93,250 92,860 92,290 91,450 Nelson Marlborough 26,030 25,680 25,210 24,740 24,400 24,010 23,460 23,020 22,550 22,070 21,480 South Canterbury 11,030 10,900 10,790 10,710 10,620 10,560 10,510 10,460 10,410 10,290 10,120 Southern 58,640 58,340 57,810 57,130 56,560 56,080 55,630 55,130 54,750 54,160 53,490 West Coast 5,820 5,760 5,730 5,620 5,550 5,460 5,380 5,290 5,210 5,100 5,000
South Island total 198,050 197,090 195,540 193,560 191,760 190,180 188,580 187,150 185,780 183,910 181,540 Grand Total 638,700 631,820 623,400 614,430 606,660 599,670 593,680 588,360 583,170 576,190 567,860
16 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
Adult population (20 to 64 years) by ethnicity
Table 11. Adult population projections (20 to 64 years) for all ethnic groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 361,680 371,790 380,510 387,700 392,900 398,040 402,800 407,190 411,380 415,500 419,800 Counties Manukau 332,320 339,620 346,440 351,650 355,660 359,350 362,720 365,390 368,000 370,710 373,570 Northland 94,120 94,460 94,740 94,580 94,230 93,960 93,590 93,210 92,760 92,470 92,160 Waitematā 377,870 386,000 393,080 399,240 403,960 408,780 413,140 417,110 420,920 424,610 428,630
Northern total 1,165,990 1,191,870 1,214,770 1,233,170 1,246,750 1,260,130 1,272,250 1,282,900 1,293,060 1,303,290 1,314,160 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 127,970 129,310 130,450 131,280 131,700 132,030 132,380 132,620 132,570 132,720 133,110 Lakes 61,500 61,770 61,940 61,990 61,720 61,560 61,280 60,990 60,520 60,240 59,980 Tairāwhiti 26,180 26,165 26,070 26,080 25,905 25,895 25,780 25,665 25,550 25,435 25,400 Taranaki 66,235 66,275 66,415 66,400 66,055 65,875 65,540 65,370 64,985 64,775 64,710 Waikato 236,270 238,930 240,900 242,410 243,320 243,890 244,280 244,710 244,920 245,270 246,050
Midland total 518,155 522,450 525,775 528,160 528,700 529,250 529,260 529,355 528,545 528,440 529,250 Central region
Capital and Coast 197,430 199,090 200,560 201,690 202,340 202,950 203,490 203,520 203,740 203,910 204,020 Hawkes Bay 88,580 88,380 88,350 88,110 87,770 87,400 86,870 86,270 85,600 85,020 84,570 Hutt Valley 87,680 87,930 88,230 88,260 88,080 87,810 87,390 86,970 86,540 86,130 85,880 MidCentral 99,410 99,750 99,900 100,080 99,880 99,680 99,320 98,890 98,590 98,210 98,020 Wairarapa 24,015 23,990 23,875 23,775 23,615 23,465 23,335 23,175 23,055 22,965 22,830 Whanganui 34,755 34,455 34,200 33,895 33,590 33,275 32,885 32,450 32,015 31,640 31,260
Central total 531,870 533,595 535,115 535,810 535,275 534,580 533,290 531,275 529,540 527,875 526,580 South Island region
Canterbury 334,940 340,220 344,860 347,650 349,220 350,810 352,020 352,920 353,440 354,220 355,580 Nelson Marlborough 82,010 81,990 81,850 81,610 81,170 80,720 80,430 79,950 79,430 78,980 78,660 South Canterbury 32,415 32,450 32,405 32,260 32,080 31,895 31,675 31,430 31,155 30,910 30,785 Southern 190,860 192,200 192,960 193,050 192,830 192,270 191,690 191,110 190,240 189,550 189,080 West Coast 18,600 18,380 18,160 18,025 17,815 17,640 17,360 17,080 16,845 16,610 16,410
South Island total 658,825 665,240 670,235 672,595 673,115 673,335 673,175 672,490 671,110 670,270 670,515 Grand Total 2,874,840 2,913,155 2,945,895 2,969,735 2,983,840 2,997,295 3,007,975 3,016,020 3,022,255 3,029,875 3,040,505
DHB population profiles, 2018–202817
Table 12. Māori adult population projections (20 to 64 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 25,920 26,520 27,090 27,640 28,130 28,660 29,050 29,470 29,920 30,310 30,740 Counties Manukau 44,850 45,790 46,890 47,940 48,800 49,770 50,620 51,400 52,360 53,320 54,370 Northland 29,710 30,230 30,770 31,190 31,510 31,870 32,150 32,520 32,900 33,400 33,850 Waitematā 32,170 32,740 33,360 33,980 34,500 34,920 35,300 35,750 36,260 36,790 37,390
Northern total 132,650 135,280 138,110 140,750 142,940 145,220 147,120 149,140 151,440 153,820 156,350 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 29,000 29,380 29,770 30,180 30,510 30,790 31,120 31,430 31,730 32,190 32,680 Lakes 19,630 19,830 20,170 20,380 20,530 20,780 20,890 21,080 21,250 21,480 21,710 Tairāwhiti 12,380 12,490 12,520 12,650 12,710 12,800 12,840 12,910 13,020 13,060 13,170 Taranaki 11,420 11,660 11,910 12,160 12,290 12,500 12,680 12,880 13,030 13,250 13,530 Waikato 48,000 48,930 49,790 50,720 51,460 52,260 53,020 53,760 54,650 55,590 56,590
Midland total 120,430 122,290 124,160 126,090 127,500 129,130 130,550 132,060 133,680 135,570 137,680 Central region
Capital and Coast 20,380 20,730 21,100 21,520 21,800 22,130 22,440 22,690 23,050 23,430 23,820 Hawkes Bay 21,080 21,340 21,700 21,970 22,200 22,380 22,560 22,770 23,020 23,300 23,690 Hutt Valley 13,520 13,670 13,900 14,050 14,220 14,360 14,500 14,650 14,780 14,990 15,170 MidCentral 18,000 18,450 18,810 19,200 19,530 19,850 20,150 20,480 20,910 21,250 21,710 Wairarapa 3,910 4,010 4,070 4,150 4,220 4,280 4,340 4,430 4,510 4,630 4,680 Whanganui 8,780 8,800 8,910 8,970 9,070 9,120 9,190 9,220 9,270 9,320 9,360
Central total 85,670 87,000 88,490 89,860 91,040 92,120 93,180 94,240 95,540 96,920 98,430 South Island region
Canterbury 26,590 27,210 27,860 28,490 29,100 29,580 30,160 30,690 31,210 31,890 32,650 Nelson Marlborough 7,970 8,150 8,360 8,510 8,680 8,790 8,970 9,080 9,230 9,350 9,560 South Canterbury 2,470 2,550 2,680 2,710 2,800 2,860 2,920 2,980 3,070 3,130 3,190 Southern 16,720 17,160 17,440 17,820 18,140 18,410 18,710 19,080 19,420 19,780 20,140 West Coast 2,060 2,040 2,070 2,100 2,130 2,140 2,130 2,140 2,170 2,130 2,140
South Island total 55,810 57,110 58,410 59,630 60,850 61,780 62,890 63,970 65,100 66,280 67,680 Grand Total 394,560 401,680 409,170 416,330 422,330 428,250 433,740 439,410 445,760 452,590 460,140
18 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
Table 13. Pasifika adult population projections (20 to 64 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 33,030 33,760 34,490 35,250 35,910 36,510 37,090 37,590 38,150 38,690 39,270 Counties Manukau 65,080 66,990 68,960 70,830 72,470 73,980 75,440 76,700 77,940 79,330 80,740 Northland 1,940 1,980 2,040 2,120 2,130 2,190 2,210 2,260 2,260 2,320 2,390 Waitematā 24,790 25,470 26,180 26,870 27,550 28,210 28,770 29,320 29,940 30,500 31,120
Northern total 124,840 128,200 131,670 135,070 138,060 140,890 143,510 145,870 148,290 150,840 153,520 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 2,280 2,340 2,450 2,480 2,590 2,630 2,710 2,770 2,830 2,860 2,960 Lakes 1,450 1,410 1,380 1,400 1,360 1,360 1,330 1,280 1,260 1,230 1,190 Tairāwhiti 710 735 735 765 770 785 805 815 825 840 850 Taranaki 755 785 795 820 845 875 890 910 925 965 970 Waikato 6,950 7,110 7,260 7,410 7,600 7,730 7,890 8,010 8,130 8,320 8,480
Midland total 12,145 12,380 12,620 12,875 13,165 13,380 13,625 13,785 13,970 14,215 14,450 Central region
Capital and Coast 12,650 12,780 12,910 13,000 13,050 13,090 13,130 13,130 13,180 13,170 13,190 Hawkes Bay 3,300 3,360 3,410 3,480 3,520 3,570 3,610 3,640 3,710 3,760 3,790 Hutt Valley 6,470 6,500 6,520 6,590 6,640 6,670 6,690 6,750 6,820 6,840 6,900 MidCentral 2,730 2,780 2,830 2,880 2,920 3,010 2,980 3,030 3,100 3,150 3,200 Wairarapa 460 465 460 470 480 495 495 510 510 515 530 Whanganui 855 865 880 875 880 885 905 910 905 920 950
Central total 26,465 26,750 27,010 27,295 27,490 27,720 27,810 27,970 28,225 28,355 28,560 South Island region
Canterbury 7,490 7,680 7,830 7,960 8,130 8,290 8,440 8,570 8,700 8,890 9,110 Nelson Marlborough 1,330 1,350 1,390 1,430 1,470 1,490 1,520 1,550 1,610 1,640 1,660 South Canterbury 325 350 365 370 380 385 395 410 425 430 445 Southern 3,560 3,660 3,730 3,840 3,930 4,020 4,120 4,210 4,300 4,380 4,520 West Coast 205 215 230 230 230 245 245 245 270 270 275
South Island total 12,910 13,255 13,545 13,830 14,140 14,430 14,720 14,985 15,305 15,610 16,010 Grand Total 176,360 180,585 184,845 189,070 192,855 196,420 199,665 202,610 205,790 209,020 212,540
DHB population profiles, 2018–202819
Table 14. Asian adult population projections (20 to 64 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 131,110 138,050 144,130 149,250 153,190 157,100 161,100 164,870 168,600 172,270 175,760 Counties Manukau 93,750 97,070 99,990 102,390 104,140 105,850 107,560 109,070 110,650 112,230 113,800 Northland 4,830 5,140 5,410 5,620 5,790 5,950 6,110 6,240 6,390 6,510 6,670 Waitematā 91,180 95,730 99,560 102,780 105,050 107,450 110,040 112,720 115,270 117,830 120,350
Northern total 320,870 335,990 349,090 360,040 368,170 376,350 384,810 392,900 400,910 408,840 416,580 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 11,460 12,080 12,600 13,080 13,500 13,880 14,310 14,680 15,110 15,490 15,880 Lakes 6,480 6,780 7,030 7,280 7,420 7,590 7,760 7,920 8,050 8,210 8,320 Tairāwhiti 910 930 945 965 985 1,000 1,025 1,040 1,055 1,085 1,090 Taranaki 3,570 3,650 3,780 3,880 3,940 4,000 4,060 4,170 4,230 4,330 4,420 Waikato 26,860 28,070 29,160 30,030 30,720 31,440 32,050 32,740 33,360 33,930 34,600
Midland total 49,280 51,510 53,515 55,235 56,565 57,910 59,205 60,550 61,805 63,045 64,310 Central region
Capital and Coast 31,240 32,470 33,570 34,530 35,220 35,910 36,650 37,400 38,090 38,750 39,370 Hawkes Bay 5,170 5,410 5,620 5,820 6,030 6,180 6,360 6,550 6,780 6,990 7,160 Hutt Valley 11,010 11,280 11,580 11,740 11,870 11,980 12,070 12,130 12,240 12,350 12,410 MidCentral 8,870 9,250 9,500 9,730 9,930 10,080 10,310 10,450 10,610 10,790 10,990 Wairarapa 815 865 885 915 935 940 970 985 1,025 1,050 1,070 Whanganui 1,720 1,830 1,940 2,030 2,100 2,160 2,230 2,320 2,410 2,500 2,580
Central total 58,825 61,105 63,095 64,765 66,085 67,250 68,590 69,835 71,155 72,430 73,580 South Island region
Canterbury 37,010 38,960 40,630 41,960 42,970 44,000 44,810 45,550 46,320 47,160 47,900 Nelson Marlborough 4,320 4,590 4,800 5,050 5,200 5,370 5,540 5,750 5,940 6,140 6,340 South Canterbury 1,500 1,600 1,690 1,760 1,790 1,860 1,940 2,010 2,070 2,140 2,200 Southern 15,760 16,640 17,420 18,030 18,550 19,000 19,420 19,850 20,260 20,670 21,020 West Coast 725 755 780 795 815 825 845 845 865 900 905
South Island total 59,315 62,545 65,320 67,595 69,325 71,055 72,555 74,005 75,455 77,010 78,365 Grand Total 488,290 511,150 531,020 547,635 560,145 572,565 585,160 597,290 609,325 621,325 632,835
20 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
Table 15. Other ethnic groups’ adult population projections (20 to 64 years), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 171,620 173,460 174,800 175,560 175,670 175,770 175,560 175,260 174,710 174,230 174,030 Counties Manukau 128,640 129,770 130,600 130,490 130,250 129,750 129,100 128,220 127,050 125,830 124,660 Northland 57,640 57,110 56,520 55,650 54,800 53,950 53,120 52,190 51,210 50,240 49,250 Waitematā 229,730 232,060 233,980 235,610 236,860 238,200 239,030 239,320 239,450 239,490 239,770
Northern total 587,630 592,400 595,900 597,310 597,580 597,670 596,810 594,990 592,420 589,790 587,710 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 85,230 85,510 85,630 85,540 85,100 84,730 84,240 83,740 82,900 82,180 81,590 Lakes 33,940 33,750 33,360 32,930 32,410 31,830 31,300 30,710 29,960 29,320 28,760 Tairāwhiti 12,180 12,010 11,870 11,700 11,440 11,310 11,110 10,900 10,650 10,450 10,290 Taranaki 50,490 50,180 49,930 49,540 48,980 48,500 47,910 47,410 46,800 46,230 45,790 Waikato 154,460 154,820 154,690 154,250 153,540 152,460 151,320 150,200 148,780 147,430 146,380
Midland total 336,300 336,270 335,480 333,960 331,470 328,830 325,880 322,960 319,090 315,610 312,810 Central region
Capital and Coast 133,160 133,110 132,980 132,640 132,270 131,820 131,270 130,300 129,420 128,560 127,640 Hawkes Bay 59,030 58,270 57,620 56,840 56,020 55,270 54,340 53,310 52,090 50,970 49,930 Hutt Valley 56,680 56,480 56,230 55,880 55,350 54,800 54,130 53,440 52,700 51,950 51,400 MidCentral 69,810 69,270 68,760 68,270 67,500 66,740 65,880 64,930 63,970 63,020 62,120 Wairarapa 18,830 18,650 18,460 18,240 17,980 17,750 17,530 17,250 17,010 16,770 16,550 Whanganui 23,400 22,960 22,470 22,020 21,540 21,110 20,560 20,000 19,430 18,900 18,370
Central total 360,910 358,740 356,520 353,890 350,660 347,490 343,710 339,230 334,620 330,170 326,010 South Island region
Canterbury 263,850 266,370 268,540 269,240 269,020 268,940 268,610 268,110 267,210 266,280 265,920 Nelson Marlborough 68,390 67,900 67,300 66,620 65,820 65,070 64,400 63,570 62,650 61,850 61,100 South Canterbury 28,120 27,950 27,670 27,420 27,110 26,790 26,420 26,030 25,590 25,210 24,950 Southern 154,820 154,740 154,370 153,360 152,210 150,840 149,440 147,970 146,260 144,720 143,400 West Coast 15,610 15,370 15,080 14,900 14,640 14,430 14,140 13,850 13,540 13,310 13,090
South Island total 530,790 532,330 532,960 531,540 528,800 526,070 523,010 519,530 515,250 511,370 508,460 Grand Total 1,815,630 1,819,740 1,820,860 1,816,700 1,808,510 1,800,060 1,789,410 1,776,710 1,761,380 1,746,940 1,734,990
DHB population profiles, 2018–202821
Older adult population (65 years and older) by ethnicity
Table 16. Older adult population projections (65 years and older) for all ethnic groups, for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 59,730 62,270 64,810 67,350 69,860 72,480 75,070 77,840 80,870 83,850 86,910 Counties Manukau 64,550 67,270 69,980 72,720 75,420 78,220 81,220 84,530 87,890 91,410 95,060 Northland 35,270 36,480 37,730 39,160 40,410 41,740 43,070 44,380 45,770 47,280 48,680 Waitematā 86,300 89,750 93,090 96,420 100,060 103,640 107,610 111,610 115,820 120,270 124,830
Northern total 245,850 255,770 265,610 275,650 285,750 296,080 306,970 318,360 330,350 342,810 355,480 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 46,230 47,830 49,380 50,810 52,350 53,720 55,240 56,800 58,650 60,470 62,080 Lakes 17,730 18,300 18,850 19,470 20,030 20,620 21,210 21,920 22,660 23,430 24,090 Tairāwhiti 7,565 7,815 8,095 8,355 8,630 8,915 9,215 9,440 9,805 10,110 10,370 Taranaki 21,100 21,725 22,315 22,935 23,635 24,225 25,025 25,690 26,525 27,365 28,115 Waikato 65,710 68,000 70,490 72,750 75,160 77,620 80,300 82,940 85,690 88,650 91,360
Midland total 158,335 163,670 169,130 174,320 179,805 185,100 190,990 196,790 203,330 210,025 216,015 Central region
Capital and Coast 42,090 43,480 44,880 46,250 47,630 49,180 50,780 52,650 54,480 56,420 58,420 Hawkes Bay 31,040 31,950 32,870 33,770 34,730 35,740 36,730 37,820 38,970 40,210 41,350 Hutt Valley 22,110 22,780 23,490 24,260 25,060 25,850 26,840 27,770 28,730 29,710 30,650 MidCentral 31,620 32,520 33,430 34,210 35,110 36,030 37,080 38,180 39,270 40,450 41,610 Wairarapa 9,575 9,880 10,185 10,485 10,765 11,040 11,350 11,645 11,970 12,270 12,565 Whanganui 12,655 12,960 13,285 13,675 14,080 14,405 14,770 15,170 15,525 15,920 16,380
Central total 149,090 153,570 158,140 162,650 167,375 172,245 177,550 183,235 188,945 194,980 200,975 South Island region
Canterbury 88,520 91,650 94,980 98,360 101,670 104,810 108,410 111,950 115,990 120,140 123,890 Nelson Marlborough 32,400 33,480 34,680 35,940 37,110 38,340 39,600 40,880 42,210 43,500 44,840 South Canterbury 13,330 13,670 14,005 14,395 14,715 15,070 15,480 15,860 16,250 16,735 17,150 Southern 55,620 57,430 59,150 60,970 62,720 64,610 66,510 68,530 70,670 72,880 74,880 West Coast 6,015 6,240 6,440 6,670 6,895 7,080 7,305 7,590 7,825 8,085 8,285
South Island total 195,885 202,470 209,255 216,335 223,110 229,910 237,305 244,810 252,945 261,340 269,045 Grand Total 749,160 775,480 802,135 828,955 856,040 883,335 912,815 943,195 975,570 1,009,155 1,041,515
22 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
Table 17. Māori older adult population projections (65 years and older), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 2,830 3,080 3,310 3,540 3,800 4,060 4,310 4,610 4,930 5,250 5,580 Counties Manukau 4,660 4,970 5,210 5,500 5,830 6,090 6,370 6,770 7,150 7,590 7,970 Northland 4,890 5,110 5,400 5,730 6,010 6,310 6,680 7,020 7,430 7,820 8,260 Waitematā 3,170 3,400 3,630 3,850 4,140 4,460 4,810 5,140 5,520 5,890 6,290
Northern total 15,550 16,560 17,550 18,620 19,780 20,920 22,170 23,540 25,030 26,550 28,100 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 4,320 4,560 4,830 5,040 5,300 5,540 5,820 6,110 6,490 6,870 7,140 Lakes 2,470 2,550 2,660 2,810 2,960 3,100 3,270 3,470 3,620 3,820 3,980 Tairāwhiti 2,170 2,310 2,450 2,590 2,720 2,860 3,040 3,120 3,280 3,460 3,610 Taranaki 1,550 1,630 1,770 1,870 2,010 2,100 2,270 2,380 2,550 2,730 2,890 Waikato 5,750 6,060 6,470 6,820 7,230 7,560 7,970 8,450 8,900 9,410 9,960
Midland total 16,260 17,110 18,180 19,130 20,220 21,160 22,370 23,530 24,840 26,290 27,580 Central region
Capital and Coast 1,840 1,940 2,040 2,130 2,270 2,410 2,550 2,680 2,840 3,060 3,230 Hawkes Bay 2,780 2,870 3,010 3,130 3,260 3,430 3,570 3,750 3,940 4,120 4,300 Hutt Valley 1,290 1,380 1,440 1,540 1,660 1,780 1,940 2,070 2,210 2,340 2,470 MidCentral 2,140 2,290 2,450 2,610 2,770 2,910 3,120 3,300 3,500 3,720 3,980 Wairarapa 580 630 660 700 740 780 820 870 920 980 1,030 Whanganui 1,190 1,270 1,310 1,400 1,450 1,530 1,580 1,680 1,740 1,870 1,960
Central total 9,820 10,380 10,910 11,510 12,150 12,840 13,580 14,350 15,150 16,090 16,970 South Island region
Canterbury 3,250 3,490 3,760 3,980 4,200 4,490 4,790 5,070 5,430 5,780 6,120 Nelson Marlborough 1,070 1,140 1,170 1,260 1,340 1,430 1,550 1,670 1,760 1,890 2,030 South Canterbury 380 410 430 490 500 530 570 600 630 670 720 Southern 2,120 2,260 2,400 2,540 2,690 2,870 3,050 3,220 3,390 3,600 3,800 West Coast 290 320 330 360 390 420 430 490 500 560 580
South Island total 7,110 7,620 8,090 8,630 9,120 9,740 10,390 11,050 11,710 12,500 13,250 Grand Total 48,740 51,670 54,730 57,890 61,270 64,660 68,510 72,470 76,730 81,430 85,900
DHB population profiles, 2018–202823
Table 18. Pasifika older adult population projections (65 years and older), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 3,750 3,880 3,990 4,060 4,180 4,290 4,440 4,590 4,760 4,880 5,050 Counties Manukau 7,650 8,060 8,450 8,880 9,310 9,770 10,300 10,860 11,380 11,940 12,620 Northland 320 340 370 420 430 490 500 540 590 630 650 Waitematā 2,680 2,810 2,940 3,070 3,200 3,320 3,520 3,690 3,870 4,080 4,330
Northern total 14,400 15,090 15,750 16,430 17,120 17,870 18,760 19,680 20,600 21,530 22,650 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 290 310 320 360 370 400 420 430 500 510 530 Lakes 140 140 150 160 170 190 200 220 240 260 270 Tairāwhiti 70 80 95 95 95 105 105 120 130 140 155 Taranaki 110 125 145 155 155 165 185 200 215 225 235 Waikato 900 980 1,060 1,140 1,190 1,280 1,370 1,420 1,490 1,580 1,680
Midland total 1,510 1,635 1,770 1,910 1,980 2,140 2,280 2,390 2,575 2,715 2,870 Central region
Capital and Coast 1,600 1,630 1,650 1,680 1,700 1,740 1,800 1,850 1,910 1,950 2,000 Hawkes Bay 350 360 390 390 410 460 460 500 500 560 580 Hutt Valley 810 850 910 910 960 980 1,020 1,030 1,050 1,100 1,150 MidCentral 330 370 400 430 420 460 490 530 560 590 650 Wairarapa 60 65 75 75 70 75 85 90 90 95 90 Whanganui 115 120 125 135 160 175 190 190 215 210 230
Central total 3,265 3,395 3,550 3,620 3,720 3,890 4,045 4,190 4,325 4,505 4,700 South Island region
Canterbury 730 790 860 930 980 1,050 1,150 1,210 1,280 1,370 1,430 Nelson Marlborough 140 160 190 200 220 250 270 290 310 330 340 South Canterbury 40 40 45 55 65 70 70 80 90 95 100 Southern 380 430 470 500 540 570 600 630 680 710 760 West Coast 30 40 50 55 55 55 75 75 90 95 100
South Island total 1,320 1,460 1,615 1,740 1,860 1,995 2,165 2,285 2,450 2,600 2,730 Grand Total 20,495 21,580 22,685 23,700 24,680 25,895 27,250 28,545 29,950 31,350 32,950
24 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
Table 19. Asian older adult population projections (65 years and older), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 13,050 14,220 15,430 16,610 17,750 18,920 20,020 21,210 22,370 23,590 25,070 Counties Manukau 13,610 15,000 16,440 17,820 19,200 20,580 21,820 23,230 24,590 25,980 27,530 Northland 550 640 730 810 890 980 1,090 1,200 1,290 1,410 1,530 Waitematā 11,390 12,700 14,090 15,460 16,840 18,150 19,490 20,760 22,000 23,380 24,900
Northern total 38,600 42,560 46,690 50,700 54,680 58,630 62,420 66,400 70,250 74,360 79,030 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 1,530 1,740 1,980 2,170 2,400 2,610 2,830 3,060 3,270 3,520 3,750 Lakes 560 650 730 840 940 1,020 1,080 1,200 1,320 1,450 1,560 Tairāwhiti 75 85 100 110 125 140 150 160 175 190 205 Taranaki 480 560 620 680 730 780 850 900 990 1,040 1,120 Waikato 2,840 3,190 3,510 3,860 4,220 4,560 4,920 5,290 5,640 6,070 6,480
Midland total 5,485 6,225 6,940 7,660 8,415 9,110 9,830 10,610 11,395 12,270 13,115 Central region
Capital and Coast 4,020 4,420 4,850 5,230 5,640 6,080 6,480 6,880 7,320 7,830 8,360 Hawkes Bay 790 880 970 1,030 1,110 1,190 1,280 1,380 1,470 1,550 1,640 Hutt Valley 1,730 1,940 2,140 2,360 2,560 2,790 3,010 3,240 3,460 3,670 3,920 MidCentral 1,260 1,400 1,560 1,700 1,840 2,000 2,150 2,320 2,460 2,650 2,790 Wairarapa 135 155 170 200 205 225 245 265 280 295 315 Whanganui 240 270 300 340 400 430 490 520 540 590 660
Central total 8,175 9,065 9,990 10,860 11,755 12,715 13,655 14,605 15,530 16,585 17,685 South Island region
Canterbury 4,130 4,630 5,170 5,680 6,210 6,730 7,260 7,800 8,340 8,920 9,540 Nelson Marlborough 510 590 690 760 820 900 1,000 1,080 1,180 1,280 1,400 South Canterbury 190 220 240 280 300 340 370 390 410 460 500 Southern 1,360 1,590 1,760 1,970 2,170 2,400 2,610 2,840 3,070 3,340 3,600 West Coast 85 90 100 115 120 125 130 135 145 160 165
South Island total 6,275 7,120 7,960 8,805 9,620 10,495 11,370 12,245 13,145 14,160 15,205 Grand Total 58,535 64,970 71,580 78,025 84,470 90,950 97,275 103,860 110,320 117,375 125,035
DHB population profiles, 2018–202825
Table 20. Other ethnic groups’ older adult population projections (65 years and older), for years ended 31 December 2018 to 2028, by DHB-locality
DHB-locality 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028Northern region
Auckland 40,100 41,090 42,080 43,140 44,130 45,210 46,300 47,430 48,810 50,130 51,210 Counties Manukau 38,630 39,240 39,880 40,520 41,080 41,780 42,730 43,670 44,770 45,900 46,940 Northland 29,510 30,390 31,230 32,200 33,080 33,960 34,800 35,620 36,460 37,420 38,240 Waitematā 69,060 70,840 72,430 74,040 75,880 77,710 79,790 82,020 84,430 86,920 89,310
Northern total 177,300 181,560 185,620 189,900 194,170 198,660 203,620 208,740 214,470 220,370 225,700 Midland region
Bay of Plenty 40,090 41,220 42,250 43,240 44,280 45,170 46,170 47,200 48,390 49,570 50,660 Lakes 14,560 14,960 15,310 15,660 15,960 16,310 16,660 17,030 17,480 17,900 18,280 Tairāwhiti 5,250 5,340 5,450 5,560 5,690 5,810 5,920 6,040 6,220 6,320 6,400 Taranaki 18,960 19,410 19,780 20,230 20,740 21,180 21,720 22,210 22,770 23,370 23,870 Waikato 56,220 57,770 59,450 60,930 62,520 64,220 66,040 67,780 69,660 71,590 73,240
Midland total 135,080 138,700 142,240 145,620 149,190 152,690 156,510 160,260 164,520 168,750 172,450 Central region
Capital and Coast 34,630 35,490 36,340 37,210 38,020 38,950 39,950 41,240 42,410 43,580 44,830 Hawkes Bay 27,120 27,840 28,500 29,220 29,950 30,660 31,420 32,190 33,060 33,980 34,830 Hutt Valley 18,280 18,610 19,000 19,450 19,880 20,300 20,870 21,430 22,010 22,600 23,110 MidCentral 27,890 28,460 29,020 29,470 30,080 30,660 31,320 32,030 32,750 33,490 34,190 Wairarapa 8,800 9,030 9,280 9,510 9,750 9,960 10,200 10,420 10,680 10,900 11,130 Whanganui 11,110 11,300 11,550 11,800 12,070 12,270 12,510 12,780 13,030 13,250 13,530
Central total 127,830 130,730 133,690 136,660 139,750 142,800 146,270 150,090 153,940 157,800 161,620 South Island region
Canterbury 80,410 82,740 85,190 87,770 90,280 92,540 95,210 97,870 100,940 104,070 106,800 Nelson Marlborough 30,680 31,590 32,630 33,720 34,730 35,760 36,780 37,840 38,960 40,000 41,070 South Canterbury 12,720 13,000 13,290 13,570 13,850 14,130 14,470 14,790 15,120 15,510 15,830 Southern 51,760 53,150 54,520 55,960 57,320 58,770 60,250 61,840 63,530 65,230 66,720 West Coast 5,610 5,790 5,960 6,140 6,330 6,480 6,670 6,890 7,090 7,270 7,440
South Island total 181,180 186,270 191,590 197,160 202,510 207,680 213,380 219,230 225,640 232,080 237,860 Grand Total 621,390 637,260 653,140 669,340 685,620 701,830 719,780 738,320 758,570 779,000 797,630
26 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
AppendixThis appendix presents the technical notes provided by Statistics New Zealand to the Ministry of Health to support the DHB population projections 2017 update.1
Technical notes: District health boards ethnic group population projections, 2014–43 (2013-Base) – 2017 update
1. General Comment
The brief for this project was to produce an updated set of population projections, by ethnic group, for the 20 district health boards and New Zealand by taking into account the latest population, births, deaths and migration data.
The base population for this set of projections is the estimated resident population at 30 June 2013. These estimates have the 2013 Census usually resident population counts as their starting point.
These district health board population projections were produced specifically for the Ministry of Health and should be referred to as “Projections produced by Statistics New Zealand according to assumptions agreed to by the Ministry of Health" in any dissemination or citation. The projections are by 5-year age groups (except for 0 and 1-4 years) and sex, and cover the period 2013 to 2043 for the total population and 2013 to 2038 for the ethnic group populations. Population projections for ages 0 to 20 by single year of age are also provided. The ethnic groups are Māori, Pacific (excluding Māori), Asian (excluding Māori and Pacific), Other, and Total. Only one series – designated medium – has been produced.
2. Method
A special "Cohort-Component" method was used to derive the Māori, Pacific and Asian ethnic group population projections. The method differs from the conventional cohort component method in two respects:
For each ethnic group, births have been projected separately for women, and for men where the mother is not of that ethnic group. For example, Pacific births have been projected separately for Pacific (excluding Māori) women, and for Pacific (excluding Māori) men where the mother is non-Māori and non-Pacific.
DHB population profiles, 2018–202827
The projections allow for population change due to inter-ethnic mobility or ethnic category jumping (ie people changing their ethnic identification over time).
In this method the base population is projected forward by calculating the effects of deaths, migration and inter-ethnic mobility within each age-sex group according to the specified mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. New birth cohorts are generated by applying specified fertility assumptions to the female population of childbearing age, and specified paternity assumptions to the male population.
Population projections are initially derived by 5-year age groups and sex in 5-yearly intervals from 2013 to 2043 (or 2038 for the ethnic groups). These projections are then converted into single year of age and sex projections annually from 2013 to 2043 (or 2038).
Population projections for the Other ethnic group were derived by subtracting the Māori, Pacific, and Asian projections from the Total population projections.
3. Base Population
The population projections have as their base the estimated resident population of each ethnic group of each district health board at 30 June 2013. These populations were calculated by updating the census usually resident population count at 5 March 2013 for:
non-response to the census ethnicity question net census undercount residents temporarily overseas on census night (5 March 2013) births, deaths and net migration between census night and 30 June 2013 reconciliation with demographic estimates at ages 0-9 years.
The ethnic classification used here is based on the concept of self-identification. Therefore, the Māori population excludes those people who have Māori ancestry but do not identify themselves as Māori. Similarly, the Pacific population excludes those people who have Pacific ancestry but do not identify themselves with the Pacific ethnic group, and the Asian population excludes those people who have Asian ancestry but do not identify themselves with the Asian ethnic group.
People can only be included in one ethnic group which means that those people who identify with more than one ethnic group have had their ethnicity prioritised in the following order – Māori, Pacific, Asian and Other.
28 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
4. Projection Assumptions
These population projections incorporate assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility for each ethnic group. The assumptions take into account historical demographic trends and characteristics of each district health board.
Over the last year Stats NZ has released updated 2013-base national and subnational total and ethnic group population projections. Also released was a set of subnational population estimates as at 30 June 2017. These DHB population projections are consistent with the population estimates but due to the current high levels of net migration there is less consistency with the official population projections.
Details of the fertility, mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions for each DHB and each ethnic group are given in Excel file: DHB Projections Assumptions 2013-Base (2017 Update).xls.
5. Changes in National Population Projections Assumptions
Fertility rates continue to fall, while net migration stays at near record high levels. These trends have meant that modifications have been made at the national level to the assumptions adopted by the 2016-base national population projections.
The national total fertility rate (TFR) for the year ended June 2017 was 1.81. The TFR has fallen every year since 2010 when it was 2.18. The 2016-base national projections assumed that the long-term TFR would fall to 1.85 by 2031. For these customised DHB projections the long-term TFR for New Zealand is assumed to be 1.80.
The 2016-base national projections assumed net migration levels of 60,000 and 51,000 in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Actual permanent and long-term net migration for the year ended 2017 was 72,300, and for the year ended 30 September 2017 down slightly to 71,000. For these customised DHB projections the assumption has been made that the net migration for the year ending June 2018 will be 62,000, meaning for the 5 years ending June 2018 a net migration level of 300,000.
Net migration after 2018 is assumed to be unchanged from last year’s projections. Net migration for the year ended June 2019 is assumed to be 42,000. This is a drop of 20,000 from the assumed level in 2018 and in line with the new government’s immigration policy. Further falls in net migration are assumed through to 2022 when the long-term annual level of 15,000 is reached.
DHB population profiles, 2018–202829
6. Changes in DHB Net Migration Levels from Last Year
The DHB migration levels for the 5-years ending June 2018 sum to the new national constraint of 300,000; take into account the assumed net migration from the updated official subnational projections released in December 2016; and take into account the estimated net migration during the 4-year period from 2013 to 2017.
Although the national net migration level for the 5 years ending June 2018 has increased from 276,700 last time to 300,000 in this year’s update, not all DHBs have had their net migration increase accordingly.
The net migration for Taranaki has stayed constant at last year’s levels, while the net migration for Waitemata, West Coast, Canterbury and South Canterbury have fallen. This is due to the estimated net migration in 2017 being either in line or lower than what was assumed with last year’s projections.
Last year’s projections for Waitemata assumed that for the 2 years ending June 2018 there would be 22,500 net migrants. Net migration for the year ended June 2017 was estimated at 10,100, and is considered unlikely to increase to 12,400 in 2018. As a consequence the net migration for Waitemata for the 5 years ending June 2018 is assumed to fall from 46,000 last time to 45,000 this time.
Last year’s projections for Canterbury assumed that for the 2 years ending June 2018 there would be 20,100 net migrants. Net migration for the year ended June 2017 was estimated at 9.000, and is considered unlikely to increase to 11,100 in 2018. As a consequence the net migration for Canterbury for the 5 years ending June 2018 is assumed to fall from 48,000 last time to 46,000 this time..There are further changes to the assumed DHB net migration levels for 2019-2023 and 2024-2028 and beyond when comparing the 2017 update projections with the 2016 update projections. The assumed net migration levels are given in Excel files: DHB Summary Projections 2013-base (2017 Update) and in DHB Projections Assumptions 2013-Base (2017 Update).xls.
7. Nature of Projections
30 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
These population projections are based on assumptions made about future fertility, mortality, migration and inter-ethnic mobility. Although the assumptions are carefully formulated to represent future trends, they are subject to uncertainty. These projections should therefore be used as guidelines rather than exact forecasts. They measure the changes in the population size and age composition which would occur if the stated assumptions were to apply over the projection period. These projections ignore non-demographic factors (eg catastrophes, war, etc) which may invalidate the projections in the future.
DHB population profiles, 2018–202831
References1 Statistics New Zealand. (2018). Projections produced by Statistics New Zealand
according to assumptions specified by the Ministry of Health - 2017 update. Wellington: Ministry of Health.
2 Te Pou o te Whakaaro Nui. (2017). Workforce planning guide: Getting the right people and skills in the future workforce, Getting it right. Auckland: Te Pou o te Whakaaro Nui.
32 DHB population profiles, 2018-2028
