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August 17, 2006
ICF Consulting
RGGI Preliminary
Electricity Sector Modeling ResultsPhase III RGGI Reference and Package
Scenario
2
Updates to Reference and Package Cases
The following changes were made to the Phase III Reference Case relative to the September 2005 Reference Case:
• Oil and gas prices updated to most recent EEA projection
• Electric peak and demand updated to most recent projections from NYISO, ISO-NE and PJM
• Calibrated NH generation mix through 2009
• 600 MW IGCC with 50% carbon capture capability added in upstate NY in 2018
The following changes were made to the Phase III Package Case relative to the September 2005 Package Case:
• Updated offset supply curves
• Implemented Revised offset triggers from MOU
3
Package Scenario
The Package Scenario presented here is based off of the Phase III RGGI Reference Case and includes the following:
• CO2 Policy – Phased-in cap to 2018 (see table below)
• Offsets – Updated supply curves with limits as defined in MOU (table below assumes 3.3% offset limit)
• Efficiency Measures – Options as defined by ACEEE limited by Program Cost Budget Equivalent to 1.0-times Current Program Expenditures
Reference Case, Phase
III, 9 state (MMTons)
Policy GuideRGGI Cap (MMTons)
Offset Limit (%)
Offset Limit (MMTons)
2006 121.5 2006 levels (early action) 121.5 3.3% 4.012007 121.6 2006 levels (early action) 121.5 3.3% 4.012008 121.8 2006 levels (early action) 121.5 3.3% 4.012009 121.9 2006 levels 121.5 3.3% 4.012010 122.6 2006 levels 121.5 3.3% 4.012011 123.4 2006 levels 121.5 3.3% 4.012012 124.1 2006 levels 121.5 3.3% 4.012013 125.8 2006 levels 121.5 3.3% 4.012014 127.4 2006 levels 121.5 3.3% 4.012015 129.1 2.5% Below 2006 Levels 118.5 3.3% 3.912016 131.1 5.0% Below 2006 Levels 115.4 3.3% 3.812017 133.0 7.5% Below 2006 Levels 112.4 3.3% 3.712018 135.0 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.612019 136.1 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.612020 137.1 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.612021 138.2 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.612022 139.8 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.612023 141.4 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.612024 143.0 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.61
RGGI Package Scenario
5
RGGI Cumulative Capacity Additions by 2024
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Reference Case Package Case
GW
Other Renewables
Wind
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
6
RGGI Generation Mix in 2024
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Reference Case Package Case
TW
h
Net Imports
OtherRenewablesWind
Other
Oil/Gas
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
7
RGGI 9-State CO2 Emissions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Mill
ion
Ton
s
Reference Case
Package Case With Offsets
Package Case Cap
8
CO2 Allowance Prices – Package Case
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/T
on
9
RGGI Average Annual Energy Prices
NOTE: Energy prices include annualized capacity prices.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
$/M
Wh
Reference Case
Package Case
10
Change in RGGI Average Annual Energy Prices
NOTE: Energy prices include annualized capacity prices.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
Cha
nge
in E
nerg
y P
rice
Package Case
11
RGGI Net Imports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
TW
h
Reference Case
Package Case
12
Cumulative CO2 Reductions by 2015 and 2021RGGI and Eastern Interconnect/Canada
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
RGGI EI & Canada RGGI EI & Canada
Mill
ion
Ton
s
Offsets
On SystemReductions
2015 2021