August 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

8/14/2019 August 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

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August 2009

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Real Estate Market Report

and Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker,

Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors

provided courtesy of

September 8, 2009


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September 8, 2009

1 7/ / 3:1 :3

The overall pace of home sales continues to decline in Harrisonburg andRockingham County with a 27% decline year over year from 106 sales in August

2008 to 77 sales in August 2009. The year-to-date gures show a 22% declinefrom 682 sales in 2008 to 532 sales in 2009. Median and average sales prices,

however, have both only shifted 5% (downward) over the past year, which isthe silver lining amidst the continuing decline in sales pace. Of note, this chart

and all other charts and graphs in this report are based on all real estate activityrecorded in the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Multiple Listing Service.

Harrisonburg & Rockingham County September 8, 2009

# Home Sales 2008 2009 % Change

August 106 77 -27.36%

Year To Date 682 532 -21.99%

682

532

2008 2009

Median Sales Price 2008 2009 % Change

August $191,500 $190,000 -0.78%

Year To Date $197,650 $189,000 -4.38%

$198k $189k

2008 2009

Average Sales Price 2008 2009 % Change

August $231,653 $210,042 -9.33%

Year To Date $224,604 $219,979 -2.06%

$225k $220k

Average Days on Market 2008 2009 % Change

August 170 158 -7.06%

Year To Date 163 185 13.50%

157190

2008 2009

A Central Shenandoah Valley Real Estate Update courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors. Data Source: Harrisonburg-Rockingham MLS.


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September 8, 2009

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After an exciting July, with home sales matching last Julys sales pace, in August wenow see a return to the trend that we have seen for most of 2009. The number

of residential properties selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is againroughly 25% below the sales levels from 2008. The nal few months of the year

still show promise, due to the potential sales increased related to the tail end ofthe rst time buyer $8,000 tax credit, and the extraordinarily slow September

through November of last year. It seems nearly impossible to meet the overallpace of 2008 this year, but hopefully we will pull closer as the year ends.

200

Month-By-Month Home Sales History

2005

2006

1752007

2008

2009

125

150

CondoSales

95

100

,Townhom

e

57

75

86

77

50

75

SingleFamil

37

51

25

0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC



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September 8, 2009

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This graph shows the running sum of 12 month home sales totals, to accountfor the seasonality of home sales. That is to say that the August 2009 gure

includes home sales from September 2008 through August 2009, and the valuein the graph for each month previous also shows a 12 month total. We can see,

thus, that the number of home sales has been declining since 2006, with a only afew periods of leveling off or increasing. When sales activity does start to pick

up again in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County (which has not yet happened)we will see a very slow and gradual change in this graph.

1,800

Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All HomesSum of Preceding 12 Months

1,600

1,200

,

800

1,000

600

200

400

0

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09



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September 8, 2009

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The yellow bars in this graph show the total number of single family homes andtownhome sales for each of the last nine years. Last year, 2008, marked a return

to a sales pace just above 2000. We will likely see yet another decline this year,as compared to 2008. This sharp decline (since 2005) is in contrast to the very

small changes that we have seen in median sales prices (shown by the blue line)during that same time period. The number of home sales declined 44% between

2005 and 2008, but the median sales price increased a remarkable 15% duringthose same years.

$250,0001,800

Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes & Townhomes

1,507

1,669

1,438$195,

100

$195,

500

$189,

000

$200,000

1,600

+14%

+11%

-14%

+1% +0.2%

1,071

1,153

1,324

1,248

,900

$192,

983

1,200

,-13%

-25%

+15%

+8%

+14%

+14%

829

936

0 ,900

,588

7,

700 $

149,

00

0 $169 ,

800

1,000+29%

+6%

-0.3% +4%

+17%

532$116,

0

$122

$122

$12 $100,000

600

$50,000

200

400

$00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



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September 8, 2009

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While the overall market showed a dramatic decline in sales pace over the lastve years, the single family home market didnt decrease in sales pace as quickly.

That being said, median home values have increased more signicantly whenlooking solely at detached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The

median sales price of single family homes has decreased a total of 9% since 2006,though that has been in very small increments, and a good portion of that decline

between 2008 and 2009. We may yet see an upward shift in overall median salesprice in 2009, which would soften the blow of slightly declining home values.

$275,0001,200

Home Sales & Price TrendsSingle Family Homes

1,024 1,025 $226,8

00

$223,

57

5

$215,

000

$205,

500

$225,0001,000+16%

n/a-11% -1% -4%

868851

880

798

0

$210,

000

$175,000800

-12%

-18%

+3%-2%

+29%

+24%

+

674654

,850

133,

239

136,

000

$147,

000 $1

70,

0

$125,000600+9%

+2%+8%

+16%

362

$122 $

$75,000400

$25,000200

-$25,0000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



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September 8, 2009

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Between 2000 and 2005, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County marketwitnessed a dramatic increase in the number of townhome sales, many of which

were built as new townhomes during that time period. In fact, there was a 315%increase in this segment of the market between 2000 and 2005. Since that time,

however, sales have declined again at least to pre-2002 levels. The saving graceof this segment of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market

is that median sale prices have remained stable, with repeating year-over-yearincreases every year since 2000, with the possible exception of 2008 to 2009.

0

700

Home Sales & Price Trends

Townhomes

644

$160,

85

0

$163,8

00

$167,

25

$162,

45

0

$160,000

$180,000

600

+33% +19%

+2%+2%

444

483

450

,100

4,

950

$120,000

$140,000500

+9%

-18% -15%

+14%

302282

$89,0

00

$94

,600

$10

$108,

200

$118,5

00 $

1

$100,000

300

400

-37%

+47%

+6%

+9%

+5%+10%

155

203

170

$60,000

,

200

+49%

+31%

$20,000

$40,000

100

$00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



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September 8, 2009

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This graph shows a 13-month history of the inventory of available single familyhomes, townhomes and condos in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

August 2009s inventory level of 917 is a 3% decline from August 2008s inventorylevel of 945. This modest reduction of inventory is a sign of our local market,

hopefully, returning to a greater degree of balance between buyers and sellers.Buyers should be aware that inventory will likely continue to decline through the

remainder of 2009, as we head into the winter months -- this will limit buyersoptions to some extent, until we get to February 2010.

1200

Inventory Levels

945 944

909888

932 928 932904

917

1000

866

828

794

838

800

600

400

200

0

Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09



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September 8, 2009

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Median price per square foot, as shown in this graph, is calculated only on single

family homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. While the median

price per square foot rose between 2000 and 2006, the rate at which it did sohas varied signicantly. Our market saw a 9% increase between 2000 and 2003,

a staggering 52% increase between 2003 and 2006. Perhaps this is why we havenow seen an 8% decline between 2006 and 2009 --- resulting in an overall increase

of 53%, or 17.5% for each of three year period. Median price per square foothas generally risen over the past year, which may indicate a new market trend.

$150.00

Median Price Per Square Foot TrendsSingle Family Homes

$113 $

119

$123

$126

$13

0

$13

1

$125

$129

$128

$127

$126

$125

$126

$121

$115

$116

$120

$120

$125.00

24 3 $

86

$87

$92

$90

$96

$99

$105

$105

$100.00

$

76

$73

$73

$73

$

76

$77

$7

4 $78

$79

$80

$8 $ $

$75.00

$50.00

$25.00

$0.00

2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1



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September 8, 2009

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There are some base costs in a home (land, water, sewer, etc) that do signicantly

vary from small home (less than 1,500 s.f.) to large home (greater than 2,500 s.f.).

Thus, the median price per square foot varies signicantly between these smallerhomes (median of $128 per square foot) and larger homes (median of $105 per

square foot). It is also interesting to see how these median values trend over time.

Both small and large homes have shown a decline in median price per square foot

over the past year, while the median price per square foot of mid-sized homes(1,500 - 2,500 s.f.) has increased.

Median Price Per Square Foot by Sales PriceSingle Family Homes

0 - 1 ,499 SF 1,500 - 2,500 SF 2,500+ SF

$138$140

$133

140

150

$123

$128

$123 $123

$116

$121

$122120

130

$105

$113

$106

$119

$115

$105

110

$84

$89

$93

$84

$94

$9290

$77

$71

$74

$77

$71 $72

$83

70

80

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



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September 8, 2009

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Lot sales of less than one acre have declined dramatically since their peak of408 sales in 2004. In fact, in the rst eight months of 2009 only 24 sales have

taken place (3 sales per month), as compared to a staggering 34 sales per monthin 2004. Of interest, lot prices increased steadily (and then drastically) through

2006, but then showed a sharp decline between 2006 and 2008. The increase inmedian lot sales price shown between 2008 and 2009 may be a result of the small

sample size of only 24 lot sales in 2009. As the year continues we will hopefullyhave fuller data from which to extrapolate potential value changes.

$120,000450

Lot Sales & Median Prices

less than 1 acre

408

$99,

900

$100,000

400

261

304

$76,

500

6,

500

$80,000300

201

247

,000

$54,5

00

$58,

300 $

$60,000

200

250

165

111$26,

000

$30,

500

$32,

208

$36,

900

$42

$40,000150

8574

24

$20,000

50

100

$00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



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September 8, 2009

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With a few exceptions (2001, 2004, 2005), the number of land sales with at leastone acre has remained relatively steady over the years, varying from 53 to 87.

Land sales in 2009 are likely to be a bit lower than this normal range, but notdramatically so. However, we do see dramatic shifts in the median sales price

of these land transactions. The line plotting the median price per acre over timeshows that we have seen a decline in land values over the past several years as the

amount of land sales has steadily declined.

$30,000180

Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre

1 acre or more

168

$24,

184

250

$25,000

160

107 $17,

713

0

$21,

3

$20,000120

87

76 77

83

$12,

003

$15,

00

$

15,

08

$15,000

80

100

58

42

53$8,

245

$8,

333

$9,

535

$10,00060

24$8,

234

$5,000

20

40

$00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009



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September 8, 2009

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The speed at which homes sell depends, to some extent, on their price. Forexample, 66% of homes that sold under $200k went from a listing to a closing in

less than 180 days, but only 50% of those homes priced above $400k were ableto match that speed. And, as we would perhaps expect, a full 23% of homes that

sold over $400k took more than a year to sell, whereas only 7% of homes under

$200k took that length of time. If a seller prices their home appropriately and

competitively, the data reected on this graph will be a much better guide as tothe time on the market, as compared to the graph showing months of supply.

Days on Market Analysis by Price RangeMarch 2009 - August 2009

0 -3 Months 3 - 6 Months 6 - 9 Months 9 - 12 Months 1 - 2 Years 2+ Years

33% 30% 15% 11% 10%All Homes

38% 28% 14% 13% 7%Under $200k

29% 35% 16% 5% 13% 3%$200k - $300k

14% 36% 24% 12% 14%$300k - $400k

30% 20% 10% 17% 23%$400k and up

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Documents

August 2009 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report