Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
The investment
pipeline in
Australia’s
Northern
Territory
June 2013
Location is now a major advantage for the NT
4 hours flying time
from Darwin:
South:
• 23 million people
• 6 mainland capitals
• 20 trading ports
• 23 international
airports
North:
• 485 million people
• 8 capital cities
• 36 trading ports
• 69 international
airports
“Australia in the Asian century”
Darwin’s evolution.
“Darwin has great opportunities to become a world-leading centre
for engineering, financial, medical and education services.
It is on the cusp of evolving in the same way as Singapore, which
has used its location to become a modern thriving city with high
quality housing, services and quality of life.
Natural resources developments are leading the transformation of
Darwin, which is experiencing an investment boom that is driving
and diversifying its economic expansion and creating thousands of
new jobs. …. Darwin is poised to reap substantial benefits.
…. Decisions made today will shape the direction of the city for
decades to come.”
“Australia in the Asian Century” White Paper October 2012. Page 184.
The industries driving the NT economy today
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Mining
Construction
Public administration and safety
Ownership of Dwellings
Manufacturing
Health care and social assistance
Transport, postal and warehousing
Financial and insurance services
Education and training
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Retail trade
Professional, scientific and technical services
Rental, hiring and real estate services (b)
Other Services
Accommodation and food services
Administrative and support services
Information media and telecommunications
Wholesale trade
Electricity, gas, water and waste services
Arts and recreation services
NT: Sector contributions to GSP 2010-11
Source: ABS Cat. No. 5220.0 June 2011 data
Activities traditionally
associated with all levels of
Government account for around 22% of today’s NT
economy
2012 2013 2014 20152011 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Defence &
Domestic
Infrastructure
& ports
Onshore
Mining
Onshore Oil
& Gas
Offshore Oil
& Gas
INPEX/ Ichthys
offshore$17B
INPEX/ Ichthysonshore
First 2 trains$17B
New PrisonNTG/
Sitzler
$600m
Single LEAP
Defence$230m
Airport expansion
$60m
Mt ToddVista Gold
$800m
Crux FLNGNexus
Energy/
Shell
BigrlyiEnergy Metals
$181m
WonarahPhosphate
Minemaker
s Limited $200m
Sunrise Field/ Timor
WOODSIDEPotentially FLNG
$12B
Darwin LNG
2nd train
ConocoPhillips
$5B
Cash Maple FLNG
PTTEPAA
DEFENCEforce posture
review
Prelude FLNGSHELL$12.6B
US Marines
Freight from
Roxby Downs,
Olympic Dam
$936m over
24 years
MontaraFLNG
PTTEPAA$440m
HeronGas Field
LNGMEO
BlackwoodGas Field
LNGMEO
Mt Peake Vanadium
TNG$700M
Redbank Oxides Copper
Ord River Irrigation
Area Stage 2 WA/NT
Beetaloo
Basin Shale
Gas
Hess/
Falcon
Southern Georgina Shale Gas
Petrofrontier
Southern
Georgina Basin
Shale exploration
Petrofrontier
$210m
Ranger Uranium Exploration ERA
$120m
Callie Deeps
Newmont
Gold
Australia
Roper Bar Iron Ore
Western
Desert Resources
$160m
Larrakeya
h Base
Defence
$50m NPARIH Territory Housing$672MFibre network
Construction NBN – SA/NT
$341m
Groote Eylandt portexpansion
GEMCO$279m
McArthurRiver
Xstrata Zinc
$350m
Darwin Port
upgrade
DPC
$41M
Waterfront Redevelopment stage 2 - Toga
$63m
Marine Supply Base
NTG$110m
Abattoir
AAco
$80m
Casuarina Square
expansionMYER$220m
Palmerston Hospital
NTG$110m
Darwin
Port
upgrade
DPC $85M
Hodgson
Downs
Sherwin Iron $180m
NolansRare Earths
Arafura$345m
McArthur Basin Shale Gas
Armour Energy $50M
Ranger
Uranium
Expansio
n ERA
Molyhil
Thor
Mining
$66m
A steady pipeline of major projects & investments
Under evaluation
Confirmed project
Prospective
Gas to Goveeni $500m
Bonaparte FLNG
GDF/ Suez/
Santos
Gas to GovePipeline $500m
Gas to GoveGas conversion
$200mChandler Salt
Mine$200m
construction
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Total
Engineering
Residential
Year ended June
$B
BlacktipMontaraGEMCO
Railway &Bayu-Undan Phase 1
Start of LNG plant
Start of Alcan G3End of LNG plant
End of Alcan G3 (major works)
LNG plant maint. shut down
Kitan oilfield
Non-residential
Major investments impact on small economy
Moving annual total adjusted for inflation.
Value of construction work done in the Northern Territory
6.5% growth will double the economy by 2030
Source: ABS, ACIL Tasman, NT Treasury, NT Department of Business
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2030
Historical growthAverage of 3.9% per annum
Extrapolated baseline2.8% per annum
GSP
-G
ross
Sta
te P
rod
uct
in A
$ b
illi
on
s
Expanded Darwin Airport
Terminal Facilities
Expanded Army
Presence in
the North
Expansion of East Arm
Port
Alice to Darwin
Railway &
Bayu Undan Stage 1
Darwin Business
Park
Darwin Waterfront
Blacktip, MRM Expansion,
GEMCO
expansion, Montara Oil
Field
Darwin LNG Construction and Alcan G3
New Prison, Marine
Supply Base,
Ichthys construction commences
+10% to 18% Ichthys project -
2 trains Oil @ $100 per barrel
+5% additional LNG trains in
Darwin
+10% potential Floating LNG,
+ Mining,
+ onshore Energy
NT Treasury forecasts
2.8%
The five year outlook to 2015-16
Average annual growth over five years to 2015-16
Australia NT NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas ACT
GDP/GSP growth %
3.0 4.4 2.5 2.6 4.0 1.5 3.7 1.5 1.8
Private consumption %
2.6 3.1 2.1 2.4 3.7 2.2 3.1 1.5 2.9
Population growth %
1.6 1.8 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.0 2.7 0.5 1.4
Employment growth %
1.4 2.2 1.1 1.1 2.1 0.5 1.9 0.7 0.6
Unemployment rate %
5.5 4.6 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.6 4.3 6.8 4.6
CPI % 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.6 3.0 2.4 2.7
Source: Deloitte Access Economics December Quarter 2012
The raw investment potential varies across the NT
Total NT
• 234,836 population
• 125,607 labour force
• 13,807 businesses
• 1,348,199 km2 in area
Daly, Tiwis &
West Arnhem
• 18,382 population - 8%
• 6,221 labour force – 5%
• 1,463 businesses – 11%
• 112,251km2 in area – 8%
Alice Springs region
• 41,222 population -18%
• 22, 344 labour force - 18%
• 1,929 businesses - 14%
• 569,566 km2 in area – 41%
East Arnhem
• 16,178 population – 7%
• 7,226 labour force - 6%
• 214 businesses - 2%
• 33,596 km2 in area – 2%
Katherine
• 20,694 population – 8%
• 9,181 labour force - 7%
• 804 businesses – 6%
• 326,327km2 in area – 24%
Barkly
• 6,682 population - 3%
• 2,588 labour force - 2%
• 192 businesses -1%
• 303,295 km2 in area – 22%
Greater Darwin
• 131,678 population – 56%
• 78,047 labour force - 62%
• 9,205 businesses – 66%
• 3,164 km2 in area – 0%
Population – ABS data from 2012
Labour force – ABS data from 2008
Businesses – ABS data from 2009
Area – 2011-12
• Deep water harbour
• Marine Supply Base
• Common User Area
• East Arm Logistics
Precinct
• International port
• Trans continental
railway
• National highway
• International airport
• Petroleum supply and
service centre
• CDU North Australian
Centre for Oil & Gas
Darwin – a northern oil and gas hub
A supply and service centre for Floating LNG?
1. Prelude (construction underway)
2. Sunrise
3. Abadi
4. Petrel/Tern/Frigate
5. Oliver/Cash/Maple/
Montara
6. Caldita/Barossa
7. Evans Shoal
8. Heron/Blackwood
9. Chuditch
10. Poseidon
11. Crux/Libra
12. Argus
Winnellie
Berrimah
East Arm Port
Pinelands
Darwin’s Marine
Supply Base
East Arm Logistics Precinct
Industrial infrastructure already in place
East Arm Logistics Precinct
Site of Darwin’s Marine Supply Base
Darwin’s Marine Supply Base
• Dedicated facility for servicing rig
tenders
• Adjacent waterfront land for
critical supplies and storage
• Land available for industries
requiring close proximity to berths
• >200 Ha of adjacent industrial
land available for related oil and
gas industries such as a new
Prelude services and
maintenance base
• Synergies with other operators
• Cost advantages
• Schedule advantages
North Australian Centre for Oil and Gas
• Charles Darwin University is a dual sector
university – Tertiary and VET
• $3 million seed funding from INPEX and Total
• Partners – ConocoPhillips, ENI, Total, Dow
Chemicals and others
• Linkages with Robert Gordon University in
Aberdeen, Curtin University, and Challenger
TAFE
• Supported by Australian Institute of Marine
Sciences
• Growing petroleum research and education
capabilities
• Supported by new electro-technology lab and
VET trade facilities
Darwin population projections
Baseline High growth
2010 127 254 127 254
2015 138 202 142 572
2020 151 762 164 065
2025 166 359 187 434
-
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
Potential for another
40 000 to 60 000
people over 15 years
in Greater Darwin.
A 30-50% increase
over 15 years.
Property requirements by 2025
Location
Number of
additional
dwellings
2010- 2025
Additional retail
and bulky goods
floor area (m2)
Additional
commercial floor
space (m2)
Additional
industrial land
(ha)
Darwin CBD Up to 2940 16 700 72 000
Darwin inner suburbs Up to 1795 4000 20
Darwin northern suburbs Up to 2905 49 600 5500 20
Darwin-Palmerston corridor Up to 1860 51 200 2100 350
Palmerston Up to 5300 34 000 4500 40
Weddell Up to 4900 21 900 3600 130
Litchfield Up to 3130 19 500 1800 30
Cox Peninsula Up to 1000 -- 10
Other 4 800 500 1000+
TOTALUp to
24 500201 700 90 000 1600+
Darwin households and how they are changing
As a proportion there are increasingly:
• more couples without children
• less couples with children
• more lone person households
Darwin CBD residential projects in 2012
Opportunities to develop tourism assets
• Additional hotel rooms in Darwin
• Internationally-recognised 5 star brand in Darwin
• Upgraded accommodation in regional areas
• New 3 star accommodation
• Signature/ wilderness lodges
Potential sites for new hotels in Darwin
13 existing mines
• Alcan Gove *
• Bootu Creek *
• Callie
• Croc Gold –
several sites
• Frances Creek *
• Gemco *
• Mataranka
• McArthur River *
• Ranger
• Tiwi Mineral Sands
* Committed to expanding
29 being evaluated
Next 12 months
• Mt Todd (Au)
• Roper HM (Ti, V & Fe)
• Tanami Central (Au)
• Bigrlyi (U)
• Nolan’s Bore (REE’s)
Next 2-3 years
• Roper River (Fe)
• Roper Bar (Fe)
• Rover (Au & Cu)
• Mt Peake (V, Ti & Fe)
• Molyhil (W & Mo)
• Spinifex Bore (garnet)
Existing and pending mines
2009
Onshore petroleum exploration activity
2012
40% covered by granted exploration licences
47% covered by new applications
15% covered by granted exploration licences
10% covered by new applications
Defence bases and activity
• 2010-11 annual spend in the
Territory: A$1.7 billion (9.2%
of NT state final demand)
• 11% average annual increase
in ADF spend in the NT for the
last decade
• Almost 10% of Australia’s
Defence personnel are based
in the Territory
• Defence community makes up
6.1% of Territory’s population
• US Defence presence:
pre-positioning & Marines
The Northern Food Bowl – myth or mission?
• The potential for the NT to be the northern foodbowl is defined
by a combination of constraints such as;
• genetics
• temperature
• water availability & quality
• soils
• landforms, and
• growing conditions
• Recent NT Government research suggests that of the
1.35 million square kms ;
• 55% is suited to native pasture
• A small but increasing potential for improved pastures
• A small area for irrigated field crops relying on artesian water
• Some potential for annual crops, constrained by soil types
• Some potential for for perennial crops
• We are not yet exploiting all of the available area, and it may be
possible to
• bring potential areas into production, and
• improve the productivity of existing and future areas by smart
investment & technology
• Ability to supply markets depends upon shelf life & distance
