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8/2/2019 Australian Economics Weekly 120330
1/17
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS WEEKLY
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMICS
ANZ RESEARCH
30 MARCH 2012
INSIDE
Economic Update 1
The Week Ahead 1 In Focus 2
Weekly Data Wrap 5Data previews 6
Data Calendar 9Forecasts 1 5
CONTRIBUTORS
Warren Hogan
Chief Econom ist+61 2 9227 [email protected]
I van Co lhounHead of Aust ra l ianEconom ics and Proper ty
Research+61 2 9227 1780
Jul ie TothSenior Econom ist
+61 3 9273 6252Julie [email protected]
Craig Michaels
Senior Econom ist+61 3 9273 1112
Just in FaboSenior Econom ist
+61 2 9227 [email protected]
Chere l le Murp hy
Senior Econom ist
+61 2 6222 [email protected]
David CanningtonEconomist
+61 3 9273 [email protected]
Andrew McManus
Economist+61 2 9227 1742
Dylan Eades
Economist+61 3 9273 2708
Savi ta S ingh
David XuAnalyst
+61 3 9273 [email protected]
AN A PRI L RBA RATE CUT I S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTI ON
Governm en t pos i t i on i ng ahead o f t he May fede ra l budge t w e l l and t r u l y beganth i s w eek , w i th T reasure r W ayne Sw an w arn i ng o f t ough f i s ca l cond i t i ons in a
speech to the Australian Business Economists.Treasurer Swan said revenues were lower
than expected in Novembers mid-year budget review, due largely to lower company tax
revenue. A sustained recovery in global growth was also not likely to lead to a similar
recovery in revenue growth, he said, in large part because the huge level of mining
investment underway is increasing depreciation deductions for mining companies. Bu t
t h e g o v e r n m e n t r e m a i n s f ir m l y c o m m i t t e d t o a s u r p l u s i n 2 0 1 2 1 3 , a r g u i n g
tha t a su rp l us i s econom ical l y imper a t i ve in an economy expected to grow around
trend, with low unemployment and a massive investment pipeline. It also sends a
strong message of confidence to investors across the world in uncertain times. The
Treasurer signalled further substantial savings in the May budget in order to achieve a
surplus, including through cutting and cancelling existing programs.
Otherw i se, i t was a re l a t i ve ly qu i e t w eek, with no major data released. Privatesector credit data was slightly stronger at +0.4% m/m in February. This reflected higher
growth in business, housing and personal credit, which were supported by greater
stability in global financial markets and recent RBA rate cuts. ABS job vacancies rose
0.7% q/q in the February quarter, following a fall of 3.4% q/q in the November quarter,
while in trend terms the series continues to weaken following its peak in early 2011. The
RBA also published its bi-annual Financial Stabilit y Review, which showed that household
financial stress measures remain low and that mortgage arrears rates, while still higher
than a few years ago, continue to fall.
I n o ur I n Focus ar t i c l e th i s week , we a rgue th a t t he p robab i l i t y o f an RBA ra tecu t i n Ap r i l i s h i ghe r th an cu r ren t l y p r i ced by the m arke t . Recent communications
from the RBA suggest the economy is not growing as quickly as it expected three to six
months ago. It also appears less certain that the strength in the resources sector will be
enough to fully outweigh weakness in sectors under pressure from the high AUD and
soft demand. Given the evolution of the RBAs thinking, we are more confident of our
forecast for a 25bp cut by the May board meeting.
THE TWO W EEKS AHEAD
In Aust ra l ia, the key event next week will be the RBA Board meeting on Tuesday. Dataon building approvals (ANZ: 1.1% m/m; market: 0.5% m/m), retail trade (ANZ: 0.3%
m/m; market: 0.2% m/m) and the trade balance (ANZ: AUD1.3bn; market: AUD1.1bn)
will be released. After the Easter break, ANZ job ads and the NAB business survey are due,
as well as employment data (ANZ: +5k; market: not yet avail.). In New Zealand , the
Fonterra global dairy auction will be the key economic event.
In China, following the manufacturing PMI data (ANZ: 51.2; market: 50.6) over theweekend, trade, industrial production and GDP data will be released after Easter.
In Europe , euro-zone finance ministers are due to meet tonight. Next week, the ECB andBoE decide on monetary policy. Manufacturing PMI and, the following week, industrial
production data are also due.
In the Uni ted States, ISM manufacturing and non-farm payrolls data will be key nextweek. We receive the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, and there are a host of Fed
speakers over the coming fortnight.
* * * PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE WI LL BE NO AUSTRALI AN ECONOMI CS W EEKLY
PUBLI SHED NEXT W EEK DUE TO THE EASTER HOLI DAY* * *
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IN FOCUS
CAN THE AUSTRALI AN ECONOMY AFFORD TO GROW MORE
QUI CKLY? MI GHT THE RESERVE BAN K REDUCE I NTEREST RATES I N
APRI L?
Recent communications by the Reserve Bank suggest the market is under-estimating
the chances of a reduction in the official cash at next weeks RBA Board meeting (see
Figure 1), notwithstanding the recent increase in pricing by the market. The Minutes for
March, together with a recent speech by the Governor contain subtle but important
evolutions in the Banks thinking. This raises our confidence in ANZs forecast of a rate
cut by May and suggests a move at the April meeting next week cannot be ruled out.
FI GURE 1. MARKET PRI CI NG AS OF 30 MARCH 2 01 2
M o n t h l y
change
( b p s )
Cumu la t i ve
change
( b p s )
Expected
cash r a te
Apr-12 -0.10 -0.10 4.15
May-12 -0.13 -0.23 4.02
Jun-12 -0.13 -0.36 3.88
Jul-12 -0.11 -0.48 3.77
Aug-12 -0.08 -0.56 3.69
Sep-12 -0.06 -0.62 3.63
Oct-12 -0.03 -0.65 3.60
Nov-12 -0.03 -0.68 3.57
Dec-12 -0.05 -0.73 3.52
Jan-13 -0.01 -0.74 3.51
Feb-13 -0.02 -0.76 3.49Mar-13 0.00 -0.76 3.49
Apr-13 0.00 -0.76 3.49 Sources: ANZ, Bloomberg
The RBA March Board Meeting Minutes noted:
Retail sales growth had softened since mid-2011, with notab le weakness in partsof the industry, including department stores and retailers of household goods (this
is the most shrill the RBA has sounded on retail sector weakness);
Labour market outcomes reflected the opposing cross-currents in the Australianeconomy with little net employment growth in the economy (we would contend
that little employment growth is a poor policy outcome in the middle of the largest
mining boom in living memory); and
The housing market remained soft.Each of the above statements hints at an evolving view that the dom est ic economy
is not per form ing as the RBA env isaged 3-6 mon ths ago . In the final section
headed Considerations for monetary policy the Minutes report:
A key question was whether the necessary adjustment was occurring at an overallpace of growth that kept the economy close to trend and inflation close to target.;
and
Members were also alert to the uncertainties inherent in assessing the response ofthe domestic economy to the disparate forces at work, including the very large rise
in resources investment and the high exchange rate.
In a speech that post-dated the last RBA Board meeting, the RBA Governor said:
On the other hand, recent national accounts data suggest growth in the non-farmeconomy somewhat below trend over 2011.; and
I van Co lhounHead of Aust ra l ian
Economics and Proper tyResearch+61 32 9227 1780
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IN FOCUS
Overall, recent economic performance in Australia is not too bad, particularlywhen compared, over a run of years, to a number of other advanced economies.
But neither is it so good that it cannot be improved. The full range of policies
macroeconomic and structural need to play their part in seeking that
improvement.
These comments provide the first public take on the RBAs views of the December
quarter national accounts and the performance of the economy in recent months.
Again, they suggest that t he Aus t ra l ian econom y is per for min g less st r ong ly
than t he RBA was prev ious ly expec t ing , notwithstanding the fact that the mining
investment boom continues apace.
Taken together, it appears that the RBA is evolving towards a view that, f o r dom est i c
reasons, the Australian economy could probably afford to grow a little faster withoutgenerating significant inflation. The rate reductions late last year were delivered
primarily on account of global concerns. While the likelihood of a disastrous global
growth outcome has reduced in recent months, the expectation remains that global
growth will be slightly sub trend this year.
The conventional market thinking is that the Bank will wait to see the March quarter
CPI in late April before considering any further policy easing in early May. However, a
long period of watching the RBA suggests that once the Bank b e l ieves there i s a
case for a change in m onetary po l i cy , it r are ly de lays i ts dec is ion. Our reading
of the recent communications suggests the Bank is evolving in the direction of making
the case for a rate change.
In conclusion, the current evolution of the domestic data suggests that an ear l ie r -
than- expec ted in teres t ra te cut by the RBA at nex t w eek s Apr i l Board
meet in g i s s t i l l a greater r i sk than curr ent l y pr i ced by the market . In light of the
evolution of the RBAs thinking, we are also more confident than before of our forecast
of a 25bp cut by the May board meeting (see Figure 2).
FI GURE 2. RBA CASH RATE: AN Z FORECASTS VS MARKET PRI CI NG
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
%
RBA Cash Rate ANZ Forecast Current Cash Rate Futures Cash Rate Futures (Nov-11)
average since 1995
Sources: ANZ, Bloomberg, RBA
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DATA WRAP
AUSTRALI A DATA WRAP
ABS job vacancies increased 0.7% q/q in February quarter, but the trend remainedweak. This is in contrast with other leading indicators for employment, such as the ANZ
Job Advertisement series, which showed signs of improvement in January and February.
Not surprisingly ABS job vacancies were the highest in the states of Western Australia
and Queensland (as a percentage of the labour force).
HI A new p r i va te home sa les for February increased by 3.0% m/m, but did not fullyreverse the previous months 7.3% fall.
RBA pr ivate sec tor c red i t increased by 0.4% m/m in February, following a reading of0.2% m/m in January, and appears to reflect improved confidence following some
calming in European financial markets and the 50bp easing by the RBA in late 2011. The
year on year trend, however, is unchanged at 2.5%.
ABS m igrat ion data was weak, with net overseas migration increasing by just 2k to172k in Q3 2011.
Savi ta S inghAnalyst
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DATA PREVIEW
BUI LDI NG APPROVALS
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
annual%c
hange
February forecast
2 APR: BUI LDI NG APPROVALS (FEB)
AN Z: + 1 .1 % m / m , -4 .8 % y / yM ar k et : + 0 .5 % m / m
La st : 0.9 % m / m , -1 4 .6 % y / y
Building approvals are expected to post a moderate increase
in February with divergent performances across States and
Territories. Despite rental yields showing improvement and
the November and December RBA rate cuts, weak developer
sentiment will continue to weigh on monthly growth in
building approvals. Over the next few months however, the
prospect for another rate cut, continuing soft house sales and
moderate negative growth in house prices is expected to
continue to dampen developer sentiment and building
approvals.
(DX)
RETAI L SALES
0
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
a
nnual%c
hange
February Forecast
3 APR: RETAI L SALES ( FEB)
AN Z: + 0 .3 % m / m , + 2 .2 % y / y
M ar k et : + 0 .2 % m / m
Last : 0.5 % m / m , + 2 .7 % y / y
The broadly flat trend in nominal retail sales has been largely
due to price deflation, particularly in food and household
goods in recent months.
Meanwhile, the trends of a somewhat cautious consumer
as seen in slow credit growth and leakage to non-retail
consumption would suggest ongoing softness in retail sales in
coming months. However, anecdotes from our latest
marketing rounds point towards a slight improvement from
very low levels recently. Confidence from rising equity
markets and the 50bps of monetary policy easing late last
year should see a modest rise in the trend of retail sales.
(AM)
RBA CASH RATE
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
%
April Forecast
3 APR: RBA CASH RATE (A PR)
ANZ: 4 .25%
Marke t : 4 .25%
Last : 4 .25%
See the In Focusarticle above for more detail.
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DATA PREVIEW
TRADE BALANCE
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
A$Bn
February Forecast
4 APR: TRADE BALANCE (FEB)
ANZ: + 1 .3BnM ar k et : + 1 . 1Bn % m / m
Last : -0 .673Bn
There were a number of one-off factors that weighed on the
January trade balance. A reversal of some of these factors
will likely see a trade surplus similar to that of December
2011. A return of iron ore exports is expected after the
cyclone disrupted January (although cyclones look to have
also disrupted March exports). Meanwhile, coal exports will
slowly return following the Chinese Luna New Year. As a
result, exports are expected to rise 4.5% m/m in February.
Meanwhile, preliminary ABS data point towards a 4% m/m
fall in imports during February. This fall largely reflects
monthly volatility after solid rises in capital goods exports(ex-civil aircraft) and consumption goods in January.
(AM)
HOUSI NG FI NANCE
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
06 07 08 09 10 11 12
%m
/m
February forecast
11 APR: HOUSI NG FI NANCE ( FEB)
AN Z: - 3.4 % m / m , + 1 0 .4 % y / y
Marke t : no t ye t ava i l ab l e
La st : -1 .2 % m / m , + 1 0 .1 % y / y
The number of housing finance commitments is expected to
post a decrease in February as soft house prices, weak buyer
sentiment and weak employment growth weigh on housing
finance activity. This is despite the lagged positive impact of
the November and December 2011 RBA rate cuts. Looking
further into 2012, greater stability in house prices and
financial markets, steady growth in the global economy and
improved housing affordability are expected to support
moderate growth in housing finance.
(DC)
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH ( MAR)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-
07
Jul-
07
Jan-
08
Jul-
08
Jan-
09
Jul-
09
Jan-
10
Jul-
10
Jan-
11
Jul-
11
Jan-
12
Jul-
12
seas. adj. growth trend growth
Monthlyemploymentchange(000's) March forecast
12 APR: LABOUR FORCE ( MAR)
Employmen t :
ANZ: + 5 .0K
Marke t : no t ye t ava i l ab l e
Last : -15 .4KU n em p l o y m e n t r a t e :
ANZ: 5 .3%
Marke t : no t ye t ava i l ab l e
Las t : 5 .2%
Par t i c i pa t i on r a te :
ANZ: 65.2%
Marke t : no t ye t ava i l ab l e
Las t : 65.2%
Employment growth has been volatile in recent months. This
is typical during periods of very low trend employment
growth, such as we are seeing currently. Although there has
been a slight improvement, underlying trend employmentgrowth was just 1.1k (0.1%y/y) in February. For March, a
small increase in seasonally adjusted jobs growth is likely,
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DATA PREVIEW
UNEMPLOYMENT AND PARTI CI PATI ON RATES ( MAR)
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
65.0
65.2
65.4
65.6
65.8
66.0
unemployment rate (LHS) participation rate, inverse (RHS)
%
March forecasts
%
after a third of Januarys solid gain was wiped off in
February. Trend employment growth is likely to continue to
rise very slowly. Job advertisements, industry employment
indexes and other forward indicators of labour demand look
stable, albeit at weak levels outside the boom state of WA.
Statistically, March is a strong month of the year for labour
demand, relative to other months. This means the original
data will be pushed down by the seasonal adjustment
factor. A weakly positive number therefore seems the most
likely outcome this month, in seasonally adjusted terms.
Current conditions and labour market sentiment (with media
headlines about redundancies and job losses appearing
frequently in the eastern states) mean the participation rate
is likely to remain depressed after falling sharply in
December. If participation remains stable, then theunemployment rate may still move up a notch to 5.3%, even
with a mildly positive employment growth number. A
recovery in the participation rate seems unlikely this month,
but if it occurred, it could push the unemployment rate to
5.4% or higher. (JT)
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DATA & EVENT CALENDAR
TWO W EEKS STARTI NG 2 APRI L
DATE COUNTRY DATA/EVENT PERIOD MARKET ANZ LAST GMT AEST
31 Mar - 1 Apr EU 07:00 17:00
US 22:30 08:30
UK Lloyds Business Barometer MAR - - - - 1 23:01 09:01
Hometrack Housing Survey MoM MAR - - - - 0.0% 23:01 09:01
Hometrack Housing Survey YoY MAR - - - - -1.4% 23:01 09:01
CH PMI Manufacturing MAR 50.6 51.2 51 01:00 11:00
HSBC Manufacturing PMI MAR - - - - 49.6 02:30 12:30
US 08:30 18:30
2-Apr AU AiG Performance of Mfg Index MAR - - - - 51.3 23:30 09:30
Monday RPData-Rismark House PX Actual FEB - - - - 0.8% 00:00 10:00
TD Securities Inflation MoM MAR - - - - 0.1% 00:30 10:30
TD Securities Inflation YoY MAR - - - - 2.0% 00:30 10:30
Building Approvals MoM FEB 0.5% 1.1% 0.9% 01:30 11:30
Building Approvals YoY FEB -5.3% -4.8% -14.6% 01:30 11:30
RBA Commodity Price Index Au MAR - - - - 98.1 06:30 16:30
RBA Commodity Index SDR YoY MAR - - - - 3.5% 06:30 16:30
JN Tankan Lge Manufacturers Index 1Q -1 - - -4 23:50 09:50
Tankan Non-Manufacturing 1Q 5 - - 4 23:50 09:50
Tankan Lge Mfg Outlook 1Q 2 - - -5 23:50 09:50
Tankan Non-Mfg Outlook 1Q 6 - - 0 23:50 09:50
Tankan Large All Indust Capex 1Q 0.8% - - 1.4% 23:50 09:50
Vehicle Sales YoY MAR - - - - 31.9% 05:00 15:00
EU PMI Manufacturing MAR F 47.7 - - 47.7 08:00 18:00
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate FEB 10.7% - - 10.7% 09:00 19:00
GE PMI Manufacturing MAR F 48.1 - - 48.1 07:55 17:55
UK BoE Housing Equity Withdrawal 4Q - - - - -8.6B 08:30 18:30
PMI Manufacturing MAR 50.8 - - 51.2 08:30 18:30
US 14:00 00:00
Construction Spending MoM FEB 0.8% - - -0.1% 14:00 00:00
ISM Manufacturing MAR 53.4 - - 52.4 14:00 00:00
ISM Prices Paid MAR 62.3 - - 61.5 14:00 00:00
16:35 02:35
CA 16:15 02:15
3-Apr NZ
Tuesday ANZ Commodity Price MAR - - - - 0.0% 00:00 10:00
AU Retail Sales sa MoM FEB 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 01:30 11:30
RBA CASH TARGET 3- Apr 4 .2 5 % 4 .2 5 % 4 .2 5 % 0 4 :3 0 1 4 :3 0
JN Monetary Base YoY MAR - - - - 11.3% 23:50 09:50
Labor Cash Earnings YoY FEB - - - - 0.0% 01:30 11:30
CH China Non-manufacturing PMI MAR - - - - 48.4 01:00 11:00
EU Euro-Zone PPI MoM FEB 0.5% - - 0.7% 09:00 19:00
Euro-Zone PPI YoY FEB 3.5% - - 3.7% 09:00 19:00
UK PMI Construction MAR 54 - - 54.3 08:30 18:30
BRC Shop Price Index YoY MAR - - - - 1.2% 23:01 09:01
US ISM New York MAR - - - - - - 13:45 23:45
Factory Orders FEB 1.4% - - -1.0% 14:00 00:00
Minutes of FOMC Meet ing 18:00 04:00
20:05 06:05
Total Vehicle Sales MAR 14.50M - - 15.03M 21:00 07:00
Domestic Vehicle Sales MAR 11.40M - - 11.70M 21:00 07:00
Fed's Wi l l i ams Speaks on Economy in San D iego (Voter )
EU-27 F inance Min is ters , Cent ra l Bank ers Meet in Denm ark
Fed 's Kocher lakot a Speaks in Evans ton , I l l i no is ( Voter )
Fed 's Bul lard Speaks at Ts inghua Univers i t y ( Non-vot er )
Fed 's Pianal to Speaks on Monetary Pol i cy in Mar ie t t a , Ohio (Voter )
Bank of Canada 's Carney Speaks in W ater loo, Ontar io
Fed 's Kocher lakota Speaks in Evans ton, I l l i no is (Non- voter )
Global Dairy Trade Auction
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DATA & EVENT CALENDAR
DATE COUNTRY DATA/EVENT PERIOD MARKET ANZ LAST GMT AEST
4-Apr AU AiG Performance of Service Index MAR - - - - 46.7 23:30 09:30
WednesdayTrade Balance FEB A$1.1bn A$1.3bn -673M 01:30 11:30
EU PMI Composite MAR F 48.8 - - 48.7 08:00 18:00
PMI Services MAR F 48.7 - - 48.7 08:00 18:00
Euro-Zone Retail Sales MoM FEB -0.1% - - 0.3% 09:00 19:00
Euro-Zone Retail Sales YoY FEB - - - - 0.0% 09:00 19:00
ECB Announ ces In t eres t Rates 4-Apr 1.0% - - 1.0% 11:45 21:45
GE PMI Services MAR F 51.8 - - 51.8 07:55 17:55
Factory Orders YoY nsa FEB -5.7% - - -4.9% 10:00 20:00
Factory Orders MoM sa FEB 0.9% - - -2.7% 10:00 20:00
UK PMI Services MAR 53.5 - - 53.8 08:30 18:30
Official Reserves (Changes) MAR - - - - $746M 08:30 18:30
US MBA Mortgage Applications 30-Mar - - - - -2.7% 11:00 21:00
ADP Employment Change MAR 205K - - 216K 12:15 22:15
ISM Non-Manf. Composite MAR 56.7 - - 57.3 14:00 00:00
Fed's Wi l l i ams Speaks in San Franc isco ( Voter ) 15:00 01:00CA 15:55 01:55
5-Apr JN Japan Buying Foreign Bonds 30-Mar - - - - 349.5B 23:50 09:50
Thursday Japan Buying Foreign Stocks 30-Mar - - - - -150.6B 23:50 09:50
Foreign Buying Japan Bonds 30-Mar - - - - -1135.6B 23:50 09:50
Foreign Buying Japan Stocks 30-Mar - - - - -242.7B 23:50 09:50
Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%) MAR - - - - 9.15 02:00 12:00
CH China HSBC Services PMI MAR - - - - 53.9 02:30 12:30
GE Industrial Production MoM sa FEB -0.6% - - 1.6% 10:00 20:00
UK Industrial Prod. YoY (nsa wda) FEB 0.0% - - 1.8% 10:00 20:00
New Car Registrations YoY MAR - - - - -2.5% 00:00 10:00
Industrial Production MoM FEB 0.4% - - -0.4% 08:30 18:30
Industrial Production YoY FEB -2.1% - - -3.8% 08:30 18:30
Manufacturing Production MoM FEB 0.1% - - 0.1% 08:30 18:30
Manufacturing Production YoY FEB 0.0% - - 0.3% 08:30 18:30
BOE Asset Purch ase Target APR 325B - - 325B 11:00 21:00BOE Announces Rates 5-Apr 0.5% - - 0.5% 11:00 21:00
NIESR GDP Estimate MAR - - - - 0.1% 14:00 00:00
US ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY MAR - - - - 4.1% 00:00 10:00
Challenger Job Cuts YoY MAR - - - - 2.0% 11:30 21:30
RBC Consumer Outlook Index APR - - - - 47.5 12:00 22:00
Initial Jobless Claims 31-Mar - - - - 359K 12:30 22:30
Continuing Claims 24-Mar - - - - 3340K 12:30 22:30
13:10 23:10
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 1-Apr - - - - -34.7 13:45 23:45
CA Building Permits MoM FEB - - - - -12.3% 12:30 22:30
Unemployment Rate MAR 7.4% - - 7.4% 12:30 22:30
Participation Rate MAR - - - - 66.5 12:30 22:30
Net Change in Employment MAR 12.5K - - -2.8K 12:30 22:30
Full Time Employment Change MAR - - - - 9.1 12:30 22:30
Part Time Employment Change MAR - - - - -12 12:30 22:30Ivey Purchasing Managers Index sa MAR 67 - - 66.5 14:00 00:00
6-Apr AU AiG Perf of Construction Index MAR - - - - 35.6 23:30 09:30
Friday JN Coincident Index CI FEB P - - - - 92.7 05:00 15:00
Leading Index CI FEB P - - - - 94.4 05:00 15:00
US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls MAR 210K - - 227K 12:30 22:30
Change in Private Payrolls MAR 223K - - 233K 12:30 22:30
Change in Manufact. Payrolls MAR 20K - - 31K 12:30 22:30
Unemployment Rate MAR 8.3% - - 8.3% 12:30 22:30
Avg Hourly Earning MoM All Emp MAR 0.2% - - 0.1% 12:30 22:30
Avg Hourly Earning YoY All Emp MAR 1.9% - - 1.9% 12:30 22:30
Avg Weekly Hours All Employees MAR 34.5 - - 34.5 12:30 22:30
Change in Household Employ MAR - - - - 428 12:30 22:30
Underemployment Rate (U6) MAR - - - - 14.9% 12:30 22:30
Consumer Credit FEB $12.000B - - $17.776B 19:00 05:00
AOFM Auc t ions A$700m of Ju ly 2017 Bonds
Bank of Canada 's Boiv in Speaks in Toronto
Fed 's Bul lard Speaks on Economy, Monet ary Pol i cy in S t . Lou is (Non-vo ter )
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DATA & EVENT CALENDAR
DATE COUNTRY DATA/EVENT PERIOD MARKET ANZ LAST GMT AEST
9-Apr JN Eco Watchers Survey: Current MAR - - - - 45.9 14:00 00:00
Monday Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook MAR - - - - 50.1 14:00 00:00Current Account Total FEB - - - - -437.3B 23:50 09:50
Adjusted Current Account Total FEB - - - - 115.6B 23:50 09:50
Current Account Balance YoY FEB - - - - -180.0% 23:50 09:50
Trade Balance - BOP Basis FEB - - - - -1381.6B 23:50 09:50
Bankruptcies YoY MAR - - - - 5.2% 04:30 14:30
CH Producer Price Index YoY MAR -0.3% - - 0.0% 01:30 11:30
Consumer Price Index YoY MAR 3.4% - - 3.2% 01:30 11:30
EU Sentix Investor Confidence APR - - - - -8.2 08:30 18:30
Lloyds Employment Confidence MAR - - - - -69 23:01 09:01
RICS House Price Balance MAR - - - - -13.0% 23:01 09:01
US 22:00 08:00
Business Outlook Future Sales 1Q - - - - -4 14:30 00:30
BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey 1Q - - - - -6.3 14:30 00:30
10-Apr AU NAB Business Conditions MAR - - - - 3 01:30 11:30
Tuesday NAB Business Confidence MAR - - - - 1 01:30 11:30ANZ Job Advertisements MoM MAR - - - - 3.3% 01:30 11:30
Foreign Reserves MAR - - - - A$49.1B 06:30 16:30
JN BOJ Target Rat e 10-Apr - - - - 0.1% 14:00 00:00
Machine Tool Orders YoY MAR P - - - - -8.6% 06:00 16:00
CH Trade Balance (USD) MAR -$6.20B - - -$31.48B 14:00 00:00
Exports YoY MAR 7.0% - - 18.4% 14:00 00:00
Imports YoY MAR 10.5% - - 39.6% 14:00 00:00
Exports sa MoM FEB - - - - 2.4% 16:00 02:00
Imports sa MoM FEB - - - - 2.4% 16:00 02:00
GE Exports sa MoM FEB - - - - 2.4% 06:00 16:00
Imports sa MoM FEB - - - - 2.4% 06:00 16:00
Current Account (EURO) FEB - - - - 8.0B 06:00 16:00
Trade Balance FEB - - - - 13.1B 06:00 16:00
UK DCLG UK House Prices YoY FEB - - - - 0.2% 08:30 18:30
BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY MAR - - - - -0.3% 23:01 09:01US NFIB Small Business Optimism MAR - - - - 94.3 11:30 21:30
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism APR - - - - 47.5 14:00 00:00
JOLTs Job Openings FEB - - - - 3459 14:00 00:00
Wholesale Inventories FEB - - - - 0.4% 14:00 00:00
16:45 02:45
18:30 04:30
11-Apr NZ NZIER Business Opinion Survey 1Q - - - - 0 22:00 08:00
Wednesday AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence sa MoM APR - - - - -5.0% 00:30 10:30
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index APR - - - - 96.1 00:30 10:30
Home Loans MoM FEB - - -3.4% -1.2% 01:30 11:30
Building Approvals, disaggregated MAR - - - - - - 01:30 11:30
Investment Lending FEB - - - - -7.1% 01:30 11:30
Owner-Occupied Home Loan Value MoM FEB - - - - 0.1% 01:30 11:30JN Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY MAR - - - - 0.8% 23:50 09:50
Bank Lending incl Trusts YoY MAR - - - - - - 23:50 09:50
Machine Orders MoM FEB - - - - 3.4% 23:50 09:50
Machine Orders YoY FEB - - - - 5.7% 23:50 09:50
US
MBA Mortgage Applications 6-Apr - - - - - - 11:00 21:00
12:20 22:20
Import Price Index MoM MAR - - - - 0.4% 12:30 22:30
Import Price Index YoY MAR - - - - 5.5% 12:30 22:30
13:30 23:30
14:30 00:30
Fed's Beige Book 18:00 04:00
Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Survey 18:00 04:00
Monthly Budget Statement MAR - - - - - - 18:00 04:00
21:00 07:00CA Housing Starts MAR - - - - 201.1K 12:15 22:15
Fed's Lockhar t Gives Welcom e, Closing at Georgia Conferen ce (Voter)
Fed's Rosengren Speaks on Money Fund s at Georgia Conference
Fed 's Bu l la rd De l ive rs Open ing Remarks in St . Lou is (Non-vo t e r )
Fed's Bernanke Speaks at Stone Mountain, Georgia Conference (Voter)
Fed's Lockhar t Gives Welcome at Markets Conference in Georgia (Voter)
Fed ' s Kocher lako ta Speaks in N ico l le t , M inneso ta (Non-v o te r )
Fed ' s George to Speak a t M insky Con fe rence in New York (Non-v o te r )
RBA's El l is in Panel Discussion, At lan ta
US Treasury Auct ions 3-Year Notes
US Treasury Auct ions 10-Year Notes
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DATA & EVENT CALENDAR
DATE COUNTRY DATA/EVENT PERIOD MARKET ANZ LAST GMT AEST
12-Apr NZ Business NZ PMI MAR - - - - 57.7 22:30 08:30
Thursday NZ Card Spending - Retail MoM MAR - - - - -0.7% 22:45 08:45NZ Card Spending - Total MoM MAR - - - - -0.3% 22:45 08:45
QV House Prices YoY MAR - - - - 2.9% 00:00 10:00
ANZ Consumer Confidence Index APR - - - - 110.2 01:00 11:00
ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM APR - - - - -2.7% 01:00 11:00
AU Consumer Inflation Expectation APR - - - - 2.7% 01:00 11:00
Part Time Employment Change MAR - - - - -15.4K 01:30 11:30
Full Time Employment Change MAR - - - - 0.0K 01:30 11:30
Employment Change MAR - - +5k -15.4K 01:30 11:30
Participation Rate MAR - - 65.2% 65.2% 01:30 11:30
Unemployment Rate MAR - - 5.3% 5.2% 01:30 11:30
JN Japan Money Stock M2 YoY MAR - - - - 2.9% 23:50 09:50
Japan Money Stock M3 YoY MAR - - - - 2.5% 23:50 09:50
Domestic CGPI MoM MAR - - - - 0.2% 23:50 09:50
Domestic CGPI YoY MAR - - - - 0.6% 23:50 09:50
EU ECB Publishes April Monthly Report 08:00 18:00Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda YoY FEB - - - - -1.5% 09:00 19:00
Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa MoM FEB - - - - 0.3% 09:00 19:00
UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn FEB - - - - -7532 08:30 18:30
Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn FEB - - - - -3678 08:30 18:30
Total Trade Balance (GBP/Mln) FEB - - - - -1762 08:30 18:30
US Trade Balance FEB - - - - -$52.6B 12:30 22:30
Producer Price Index MoM MAR - - - - 0.4% 12:30 22:30
PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM MAR - - - - 0.2% 12:30 22:30
Producer Price Index YoY MAR - - - - 3.3% 12:30 22:30
PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY MAR - - - - 3.0% 12:30 22:30
Initial Jobless Claims 7-Apr - - - - - - 12:30 22:30
Continuing Claims 31-Mar - - - - - - 12:30 22:30
13:00 23:00
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 8-Apr - - - - - - 13:45 23:45
14:00 00:0014:00 00:00
17:00 03:00
CA New Housing Price Index MoM FEB - - - - 0.1% 12:30 22:30
New Housing Price Index YoY FEB - - - - 2.4% 12:30 22:30
Int'l Merchandise Trade FEB - - - - 2.10B 12:30 22:30
13-Apr CH Industrial Production YTD YoY MAR - - - - 11.4% 02:00 12:00
Friday Industrial Production YoY MAR - - - - - - 02:00 12:00
Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD YoY MAR - - - - 21.5% 02:00 12:00
Real GDP YTD YoY 1Q - - - - 9.2% 02:00 12:00
Real GDP QoQ 1Q - - - - 2.0% 02:00 12:00
Real GDP YoY 1Q - - - - 8.9% 02:00 12:00
Retail Sales YTD YoY MAR - - - - 14.7% 02:00 12:00
Retail Sales YoY MAR - - - - - - 02:00 12:00
GE Consumer Price Index MoM MAR F - - - - 0.3% 06:00 16:00Consumer Price Index YoY MAR F - - - - 2.1% 06:00 16:00
CPI - EU Harmonised MoM MAR F - - - - 0.4% 06:00 16:00
CPI - EU Harmonised YoY MAR F - - - - 2.3% 06:00 16:00
UK PPI Input Nsa MoM MAR - - - - 2.1% 08:30 18:30
PPI Input Nsa YoY MAR - - - - 7.3% 08:30 18:30
PPI Output n.sa MoM MAR - - - - 0.6% 08:30 18:30
PPI Output n.sa YoY MAR - - - - 4.1% 08:30 18:30
PPI Output Core Nsa MoM MAR - - - - 0.5% 08:30 18:30
PPI Output Core Nsa YoY MAR - - - - 3.0% 08:30 18:30
US Consumer Price Index MoM MAR - - - - 0.4% 12:30 22:30
CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM MAR - - - - 0.1% 12:30 22:30
Consumer Price Index YoY MAR - - - - 2.9% 12:30 22:30
CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY MAR - - - - 2.2% 12:30 22:30
Consumer Price Index Nsa MAR - - - - 227.663 12:30 22:30
CPI Core Index sa MAR - - - - 227.907 12:30 22:30U. of Michigan Confidence APR P - - - - - - 13:55 23:55
15-Apr UK Rightmove House Prices MoM APR - - - - 1.6% 23:01 09:01
Rightmove House Prices YoY APR - - - - 2.2% 23:01 09:01
US Treasury Auc t ion s 30-Year Bonds
Fed's Kocher lakot a Speaks in Whi te Bear Lake, Minnesota (No n-vot er )
Fed 's Nel l ie L iang to Speak on Panel in New York (Non -vot er )
Fed 's Lockhar t t o Moderate Panel D iscuss ion in A t lant a (Voter )
N ew Y ork Fed ' s Cumm i ng t o S peak on P ane l i n N ew Y ork (N on-v o t e r )
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FIVE WEEKS AT A GLANCE
MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY
2 APRILAU: Building Approvals(Feb)
JN: Tankan Survey (Q1),Vehicle Sales (Mar)
EU: PMI Manuf. (Mar F),Unemployment Rate
(Feb)GE: PMI Manuf. (Mar F)
UK: PMI Manuf. (Mar)US: ISM Manuf. (Mar),
Construction Spending(Feb), Feds Bul lard
and Pianal to Speak
3 APRILNZ: Global Dairy TradeAuction, ANZ Commodity
Price (Mar)AU: Retail Sales (Feb),
RBA Rates Decision CH: Non-manufacturing
PMI (Mar)EU: PPI (Feb)
UK: PMI Construction (Mar)US: Factory Orders (Feb),
FOMC Minu tes, FedsWi l l iams Speaks
4 APRILAU: Trade (Feb)EU: PMI (Mar F), Retail
Sales (Feb), ECB Rat esDecision
GE: PMI Services (Mar F);Factory Orders (Feb)
UK: PMI Services (Mar)US: ADP Employment
Change (Mar), ISM Non-Manuf. (Mar), FedsWi l l iams SpeaksCA: BoCs Boiv in Speaks
5 APRILCH: HSBC Services PMI(Mar)
GE: Ind. Prod. (Feb)UK: Ind. Prod. (Feb),
Manuf. Prod. (Feb), BO ERates Decision
US: Feds Bul lard SpeaksCA: Employment (Mar),
Building Permits (Feb),Ivey PMI (Mar)
6 APRILPubl ic Hol iday (AU,NZ, EU, UK, US, CA)
JN: Coincidence Index(Feb P)
US: Non-farm Payrolls(Mar), Unemployment
Rate (Mar), ConsumerCredit (Feb)
9 APRILPubl ic Hol iday (AU,
NZ, EU, UK, US, CA)JN: Current Account and
Trade (Feb)CH: PPI and CPI (Mar)
EU: Sentix InvestorConfidence (Apr)
US: Feds Bernank eSpeaks
10 APRILAU: ANZ Job Ads. (Mar),
NAB Business Conditionsand Confidence (Mar)
JN: BoJ Rates Decision CH: Trade Balance (Mar)
GE: Current Account (Feb),Trade Balance (Feb)
US: NFIB Small Bus.Optimism (Mar), Feds
Lockhar t , Ko rcher lako taSpeak
11 APRILAU: RBAs El l is in Panel
Discuss ion, WestpacConsumer Confidence
(Apr), Housing Finance(Feb)
US: Import Price Index(Mar), Monthly Budget
Statement (Mar), FedsBeige Book (Mar) , Feds
Lockhar t , George, andRosengren, and Bul lard
SpeakCA: Housing Starts (Mar)
12 APRILNZ: Business NZ PMI
(Mar), ANZ ConsumerConfidence (Apr), NZ Card
Spending (Mar)AU: Employment (Mar)
(Mar)JN: Domestic CGPI (Mar)
EU: Ind. Prod. (Feb), ECBPubl ishes Month ly
Repor tUK: Trade Balance (Feb)
US: Trade Balance (Mar),PPI (Mar), Feds Lockhar t ,
and Kocher lakot a SpeakCA: Merchandise Trade(Feb)
13 APRILCH: Ind. Prod. (Mar),
Real GDP (Q1), RetailSales (Mar)
GE: CPI (Mar F)UK: PPI (Mar)
US: CPI (Mar), Univ. ofMichigan Confidence (Apr
P)
16 APRILNZ: Performance of
Services (Mar), FoodPrices (Mar)
EU: Trade (Feb)US: Retail Sales (Mar),
Empire FedManufacturing (Apr),
Business Inventories
(Feb), NAHB Housing(Apr), Feds Bul lardSpeaks
17 APRILAU: RBA Minut es
JN: Ind. Prod (Feb),Consumer Confidence
(Mar)EU: CPI (Mar), ZEW (Apr)
GE: ZEW Survey (Apr)UK: CPI (Mar)
US: Housing Starts (Mar),
Building Permits (Mar),Ind. Prod. (Mar)CA: Manufacturing Sales
(Feb), BoC Rates
18 APRILAU: Westpac Leading
Index (Feb)EU: Current Account (Feb),
Construction Output (Feb)UK: BoE Minutes,
Unemployment (Feb),Jobless Claims Change
(Mar)
CA: BoC Monetar y Pol icyRepor t
19 APRILNZ: ANZ Job Ads (Mar),
CPI (Q1)JN: Trade (Mar)
EU: Consumer Confidence(Apr)
US: Philly FedManufacturing (Apr),
Existing Home Sales (Mar),
Leading Indicators (Mar)CA: BoCs Carney Speak s
20 APRILAU: International Trade
Prices (Q1)GE: PPI (Mar), IFO
Survey (Apr)UK: Retail Sales (Mar)
CA: CPI (Mar)G20 Finance Min is tersMee t ing i n Wash ing ton
23 APRILAU: PPI (Q1)JN: Coincident Index
(Feb), Leading Index CI(Feb)
EU: Euro-zoneGovernment Debt/GDP
Ratio
24 APRILNZ: Net Migration (Mar),Credit Card Spending (Mar)
AU: CPI (Q1)CH: Conference Board
China Leading EconomicIndex (Mar)
US: S&P/CaseShiller HomePrice Index (Feb),Consumer Confidence
(Apr), Richmond Fed (Apr),
New Home Sales (Mar)CA: Retail Sales (Feb)
25 APRILANZAC Day Publ icHol iday (AU)
UK: GDP (Q1 A), Index ofServices (Feb)
US: Cap & Durable GoodsOrders (Mar), FOMC Rat e
Decision , FedsBernanke Speaks
26 APRILNZ: RBNZ Off icial CashRate Decis ion
AU: DEWR Internet SkilledVacancies (Mar)
EU: Bus. Climate Indicator(Apr), Consumer
Confidence (Apr F)GE: CPI (Apr)US: Chicago Fed Nat
Activity Index (Mar),
Pending Home Sales (Mar),Kansas City Fed Manuf.
Activity (Apr)
27 APRILAU: HIA New Home Sales(Mar)
CH: Industrial Profits(Mar)
JN: National CPI (Mar),Jobless Rate (Mar), Ind
Prod. (Mar P), RetailTrade (Mar), BoJ Target
RateGE: GfK Consumer
Confidence Survey (May)US: Employment Cost
Index (Q1), GDP (Q1),Univ. of MichiganConfidence (Apr F)
30 APRILNZ: Building Permits
(Mar), Trade Balance(Mar), NBNZ Business
Confidence (Apr)
AU: Private Sector Credit(Mar)JN: Manuf. PMI (Apr)
US: PCE (Mar), Chicago
Purchasing Manager(Apr) Dallas Fed Manuf.Activity (Apr)
CA: GDP (Feb)
1 MAYAU: RBA Rates Decisio nGE: Unemployment (Apr)CH: PMI Manuf. (Apr),
HSBC PMI Manuf. (Apr)
UK: PMI Manuf. (Apr)US: ISM (Apr),Construction Spending
(Mar)
2 MAYNZ: ANZ Commodity Price
(Apr)EU: PMI Manuf. (Apr F),
Unemployment (Mar)
GE: Unemployment (Apr),PMI Manuf. (Apr F)UK: PMI Construction
(Apr), Mortgage Approvals
(Mar), Consumer Credit(Mar)US: ADP Employment
(Apr), Factory Orders(Mar)
3 MAYNZ: Employment (Q1)
CH: PMI Non-manuf. (Apr)EU: PPI (Mar), ECB Rat esDecision
UK: PMI Services (Apr)
4 MAYAU: RBA SOMP
EU: PMI (Apr F), RetailSales (Mar)
GE: PMI Services (Apr F)
US: Nonfarm Payrolls(Apr), Unemployment(Apr)
CA: Ivey PMI (Apr)
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CENTRAL BANK RELEASES FOR 2012
JANUARY 2012 FEBRUARY 2012 MARCH 2012 APRIL 2012
12th ECB
12th BoE
17th BoC24th BoJ
25th BoJ Monthly Report
25th BoE Minutes25th FOMC
26th ECB
26th RBNZ
7th RBA
9th BoE
9th ECB14th BoJ
15th BoJ Monthly Report
17th BoJ Minutes21st RBA Minutes
22nd BoE Minutes
23rd ECB
6th RBA
8th BoC
8th ECB8th BoE
8th RBNZ MP Statement
13th BoJ13th FOMC
14th BoJ Monthly Report
16th BoJ Minutes20th RBA Minutes
21st BoE Minutes
22nd ECB
3rd RBA
4th ECB
9th BoE9th BoJ
10th BoJ
11th BoJ Monthly Report13th BoJ Minutes
17th RBA Minutes
17th BoC18th BoE Minutes
19th ECB
25th FOMC26th RBNZ
27th BoJ
MAY 2012 JUNE 2012 JULY 2012 AUGUST 2012
1st RBA3rd ECB
7th BoJ Minutes
10th BoE15th RBA Minutes
16th ECB
23rd BoJ24th BoJ Monthly Report
25th BoE Minutes
28th BoJ Minutes
5th RBA5th BoC
7th BoE
6th ECB14th RBNZ MP Statement
15th BoJ
18th BoJ Monthly Report19th RBA Minutes
20th BoJ Minutes
20th FOMC20th BoE Minutes
21st ECB
3rd RBA5th ECB
5th BoE
12th BoJ13th BoJ Monthly Report
17th BoC
17th RBA Minutes18th BoJ Minutes
19th ECB
26th RBNZ28th BoE Minutes
31st FOMC
2nd BoE2nd ECB
7th RBA
9th BoJ10th BoJ Monthly Report
14th BoJ Minutes
18th BoE Minutes21st RBA Minutes
SEPTEMBER 2012 OCTOBER 2012 NOVEMBER 2012 DECEMBER 2012
4th RBA
5th BoC6th BoE
6th ECB
12th FOMC13th RBNZ MP Statement
18th RBA Minutes
19th BoJ
19th BoE Minutes20th BoJ Monthly Report
20th ECB24th BoJ Minutes
2nd RBA
4th BoE4th ECB
5th BoJ
9th BoJ Monthly Report11th BoJ Minutes
16th RBA Minutes
17th BoE Minutes
18th ECB23rd BoC
24th FOMC25th RBNZ
30th BoJ
2nd BoJ Minutes
6th RBA8th ECB
8th BoE
20th RBA Minutes20th BoJ
21st BoJ Monthly Report
21st BoE Minutes
22nd ECB26th BoJ Minutes
4th RBA
4th BoC6th ECB
6th BoE
6th RBNZ MP Statement11th FOMC
19th BoE Minutes
20th ECB
20th RBA Minutes20th BoJ
21st BoJ Monthly Report26th BoJ Minutes
Notes : Entries are the dates of central bank interest rate announcements, unless specified as minutes or otherwise. Dates
are indicative only and are subject to change by central bank authorities.
Key: BoC: Bank of Canada; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Japan; ECB: European Central Bank; FOMC: Federal Open
Market Committee; RBA: Reserve Bank of Australia; RBNZ: Reserve Bank of New Zealand; SNB: Swiss National Bank.
Sources: Central bank websites.
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FORECASTS
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2010 2011 2012F 2013F
Economic act i v i t y ( annua l % change)
Private final demand 2.0 5.6 6.2 6.3
Household consumption 2.9 3.4 3.1 3.3
Dwelling investment 4.1 1.1 -5.5 6.1
Business investment -1.3 16.9 20.7 15.3
Public demand 8.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.1
Domestic final demand 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.0
Inventories (contribution to GDP growth) 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.0
Gross National Expenditure (GNE) 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.0
Exports 5.8 -1.6 9.6 9.9
Imports 14.1 11.6 13.5 14.8
Net Exports (contribution to GDP growth) -1.5 -2.7 -1.3 -1.7
Gross Dom est ic Produc t ( GDP) 2.5 2.0 3.2 3.1Pr i ces and w ages (annu a l % change)
Inflation*: Headline CPI 2.8 3.4 2.3 3.4
Underlying (RBA core)^ 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.4
Wages: 3.4 3.7 3.6 3.9
Labour marke t
Employment (annual % change) 2.7 1.7 1.1 2.5
Unemployment rate (annual average %) 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.0
Ext erna l sec tor
Terms of trade (annual % change) 16.4 13.3 -7.0 -1.5
Current account balance: AUD bn -38.5 -32.0 -70.0 -95.7
% of GDP -2.8 -2.2 -4.7 -6.1* Includes carbon tax. Average of RBA trimmed mean and weighted statistical measures
AUSTRALIAN INTEREST RATES CURRENT JUN 12F SEP 12F DEC 12F MAR 13F JUN 13F
RBA cash rate 4.25 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
90 day bill 4.34 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15 4.15
3 year bond 3.47 3.20 3.40 3.40 3.30 3.30
10 year bond 3.97 3.80 4.00 3.90 3.80 3.80
3s10s yield curve 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.50 0.50 0.50
3 year swap 4.02 3.80 3.90 3.85 3.75 3.70
10 year swap 4.75 4.60 4.70 4.50 4.35 4.35
INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES CURRENT JUN 12F SEP 12F DEC 12F MAR 13F JUN 13F
RBNZ cash rate 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 3.25 3.50
NZ 90 day bill 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.17 3.67 3.75
US Fed funds note 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
US 2 year note 0.34 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.30
US 10 year note 2.16 1.90 2.00 2.00 2.10 2.20
Japan call rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
ECB refinance rate 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
UK repo rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
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FORECASTS
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES CURRENT JUN 12F SEP 12F DEC 12F MAR 13F JUN 13F
Aus t ra l i an exchange ra tesAUD/USD 1.04 1.06 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10
NZD/USD 0.82 0.85 0.86 0.89 0.90 0.90
AUD/ 85.3 81.6 82.5 79.2 77.0 77.0
AUD/ 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
AUD/ 0.65 0.67 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.67
AUD/NZD 1.27 1.25 1.28 1.24 1.22 1.22
AUD/CAD 1.03 1.05 1.11 1.13 1.16 1.18
AUD/CHF 0.94 1.02 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14
AUD/CNY 6.54 6.60 6.81 6.74 6.71 6.69
AUD Trade weighted index 76.9 76.9 79.0 78.1 77.6 77.3
I n te rna t i ona l cross ra tes
USD/ 82.2 77.0 75.0 72.0 70.0 70.0
/USD 1.33 1.35 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37
/ 109 104 103 99 96 96
/USD 1.60 1.59 1.61 1.63 1.63 1.63
/ 0.83 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84
USD/CAD 1.00 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07
USD/CHF 0.91 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04
USD index 79.0 77.8 77.0 76.7 76.6 76.8
Asia exchange ra t es
USD/CNY 6.31 6.23 6.19 6.13 6.10 6.08USD/HKD 7.76 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80
USD/IDR 9183 8800 8750 8700 8650 8600
USD/INR 51.4 47.5 47.0 46.5 46.0 45.2
USD/KRW 1136 1080 1070 1065 1060 1050
USD/MYR 3.07 3.00 2.98 2.98 2.98 2.97
USD/PHP 43.0 42.6 42.5 41.7 41.9 40.1
USD/SGD 1.26 1.23 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.21
USD/THB 30.89 30.40 30.20 30.00 30.00 29.80
USD/TWD 29.56 28.80 28.70 28.70 28.70 28.50
USD/VND 20825 21400 21600 21800 21800 22000
Paci f i c exchange ra t es
PGK/USD 0.487 0.513 0.528 0.536 0.547 0.563
FJD/USD0.562 0.583 0.584 0.589 0.591 0.591
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IMPORTANT NOTICE
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