1

Author: Gemma Asero

Annual meeting AITC September 4th and 5th 2009 Florence, Italy

ITALY:AN OVERVIEW OF

DEMOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY

WHY

The purpose of this work is to offer an overview on Italian

economy and demography since the end of Nineties to 2009.

2

HOWUsing ISTAT, EUROSTAT and IMF data

collections;Analyzing data, extracted on June 2009,

both over time and by making a comparison between Italy and Europe and also between Italy and the other six world’s advanced economies (G7 countries);

Looking at some forecast and estimate for 2010.

3

POPULATION

The Italian demographic

growth has assured by a positive

migratory balance with

abroad

In 2008, Italian population,

live births and deaths

increased respect to 2007

1959: 50 million inhabitants

Natural growth and migratory component

2008: 60 million inhabitants

Resident population on 31° December 2008 and increase from 2007 by geographical areas

-Istat-

5

 

Population on31st December 2008

(millions)

Increase from31st

December2007

  Male Female Total %Resident

Foreigners(%)

AbsoluteValues

%

North-west 7 741 251 8 176 125 15 917 376 26.5 8.6 137 903 0.9

North-east 5 599 221 5 873 899 11 473 120 19.1 9.0 135 650 1.2

Centre 5 686 716 6 111 612 11 798 328 19.6 8.0 122 750 1.0

South 6 872 112 7 275 332 14 147 444 23.6 2.5 15 975 0.1

Islands 3 253 123 3 455 677 6 788 000 11.2 2.2 13 500 0.2

Italy 29 152 423 30 892 645 60 045 068 100.0 6.5 425 778 0.7

Demographic indicators of national demographic balance, Italy, 2008 -Istat-

6

DemographicIndicators Male Female Total

Resident population on 1st January (million)28 949

74730 669

54359 619

290

Live births (1 000) 296 138 280 521 576 659

Deaths (1 000) 285 483 299 643 585 126

Natural increase (1 000) 10 655 -19 122 -8 467

Life expectancy at birth (years) 79 84 81

Immigration from other Italian municipalities (1 000) 740 480 725 160 1 465 640

Immigration from other Countries (1 000) 29 305 17 061 46 366

Emigration to other Municipalities (1 000) 731 267 719 085 1 450 352

Emigration to other Countries (1 000) 43 743 37 204 80 947

Net migration + balance for other reasons (1 000) 192 021 242 224 434 245

Resident population in Household on 31st December (1 000)29 031

97330 689

95359 721

926

Resident population in Community on 31st Dec. (1 000) 120 450 202 692 323 142

Number of Households (1 000) : :24 641

200

Number of Communities (1 000) : : 28 217

Average number of household members (%) : : 2.4

GDP AND EXPENDITURE

ON GDP

Private final consumption

expenditure > the government one.

Both increased in the first quarter

of 2009

In 2008, tertiary sector was the most important one in the origin

of Italian GDP

In 2009, decrease of real

GDP growth rate by 4.4 but forecasts for 2010 show the possibility

a fair recover will take place

GDP per capita at current market prices in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS),2008 (EU-27=100) -Eurostat-

8

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

EU-27

Belgium

Bulgaria

Czech Rep.

Denmark

Germany

Estonia

Ireland

Greece

Spain

France

ITALY

Cyprus

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Hungary

Malta

Netherlands

Austria

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Slovenia

Slovakia

Finland

Sw eden

Uk

Croatia

FYR Mk

Turkey

Iceland

Norw ay

Sw itzerland (1)

United States

Japan

Origin GDP, Italy, 2008 (%) -Eurostat-

9

Agriculture2%

Industry20%

Construction6%

Trade22%

Business29%

Other services21%

Gross value added at basic prices, EU-27, 2008 (% share of total gross values added)

-Eurostat-

10

Construction6%

Trade, transport and communication services

25%

Business activities and financial services

25%

Other services21%

Industry, excluding Energy21%

Agriculture2%

Private final consumption expenditure at current prices, quarterly data (Million EUR) -Eurostat-

11

  2007 2008 2009

  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

EU-27 1 740 208 1 762 009 1 783 309 1 796 720 1 794 649 1 796 943 1 815 043 1 768 326 1 711 487

Italy 224 430 225 980 227 919 229 333 230 989 232 581 234 688 230 629 225 869

U.S.A. 1 816 897 1 790 947 1 777 115 1 707 286 1 669 722 1 622 392 1 688 289 1 883 137 1 906 996

Japan 463 709 446 643 447 062 444 038 469 071 449 142 454 773 571 819 583 545

Government final consumption expenditure at current prices, quarterly data (Million EUR) -Eurostat-

12

  2007 2008 2009

  Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

EU-27 621 499 625 385 631 376 636 924 637 758 649 139 653 029 651 995 644 666

Italy 74 678 75 634 75 662 78 393 76 875 82 121 79 088 80 027 81 826

U.S.A. 410 346 407 147 406 609 391 205 388 004 381 017 405 282 455 330 458 055

Japan 145 604 141 989 142 241 142 986 148 939 143 253 145 600 186 395 194 448

PUBLIC FINANCE

In 2008, Italy was

at no. 24 in world rankings according to General Government

Balance. In 2009 and in 2010,

public balance more in deficit than

the EU-27 and EA-16

Italy has one of the highest

debt levels in the Euro area and it seems

they will increase more in next 2 years,

although Italy is trying to carry out

a fiscal strengthening

In 2008, Italian public

finances in dire straits:

public deficit = 2.7 % of GDP and

debt = 105.8 % of GDP

General government gross debt, G7 countries, 1997-2010 (% of GDP) -Eurostat-

14

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Canada France Germany ITALY Japan United Kingdom United States

General government balance G7 countries, 2000-2010 (% of GDP) -Eurostat-

15

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Canada France Germany ITALY Japan United Kingdom United States

PRICES ANDFINANCIAL INDICATORS

Annual percentage change average

consumer prices: highest values

among the European G7 countries

Inflation rate:similar trend to the

EU average (’97-’08). Slowdown in

Italian inflation reflected decrease of national prices

level

Annual average long term interest rates

similar to the Euro area ones (+ 0.2%), slightly lower

than the US ones. Japan, the lowest ones

Annual change on consumer prices index, Italy, January 2008-June 2009 (%) -Istat-

17

3.0 3.0 2.9

3.3 3.33.6

3.84.1 4.1

3.83.5

2.7

2.2

1.6

1.2 1.20.9

0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

gen-08

feb-08

mar-08

apr-08

mag-08

giu-08

lug-08

ago-08

set-08

ott-08

nov-08

dic-08

gen-09

feb-09

mar-09

apr-09

mag-09

giu-09

18

HICP all-items, annual average inflation rates, 1997-2008 (%) Part I-Eurostat-

  1997 1998 1999 2000200

1200

2200

3200

4200

5200

62007

2 008

EU-27 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 3.7

Euro area 1.6 1.1 1.1 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.3

Belgium 1.5 0.9 1.1 2.7 2.4 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.3 1.8 4.5

Bulgaria : 18.7 2.6 10.3 7.4 5.8 2.3 6.1 6.0 7.4 7.6 12.0

Czech Republic 8.0 9.7 1.8 3.9 4.5 1.4 -0.1 2.6 1.6 2.1 3.0 6.3

Denmark 2.0 1.3 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.0 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 3.6

Germany 1.5 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.3 2.8

Estonia 9.3 8.8 3.1 3.9 5.6 3.6 1.4 3.0 4.1 4.4 6.7 10.6

Ireland 1.3 2.1 2.5 5.3 4.0 4.7 4.0 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.1

Greece 5.4 4.5 2.1 2.9 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.0 4.2

Spain 1.9 1.8 2.2 3.5 2.8 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 2.8 4.1

France 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 3.2

Italy 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 3.5

Cyprus 3.3 2.3 1.1 4.9 2.0 2.8 4.0 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 4.4

Latvia 8.1 4.3 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.0 2.9 6.2 6.9 6.6 10.1 15.3

Lithuania 10.3 5.4 1.5 1.1 1.6 0.3 -1.1 1.2 2.7 3.8 5.8 11.1

Luxembourg 1.4 1.0 1.0 3.8 2.4 2.1 2.5 3.2 3.8 3.0 2.7 4.1

Hungary 18.5 14.2 10.0 10.0 9.1 5.2 4.7 6.8 3.5 4.0 7.9 6.0

19

HICP all-items, annual average inflation rates, 1997-2008 (%) Part II-Eurostat-

  1997199

81999 2000

2001

2002200

3200

4200

5200

6200

72

008

Italy 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 3.5

Malta 3.9 3.7 2.3 3.0 2.5 2.6 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.6 0.7 4.7

Netherlands 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.3 5.1 3.9 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.2

Austria 1.2 0.8 0.5 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.3 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.2 3.2

Poland 15.0 11.8 7.2 10.1 5.3 1.9 0.7 3.6 2.2 1.3 2.6 4.2

Portugal 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.8 4.4 3.7 3.3 2.5 2.1 3.0 2.4 2.7

Romania 154.8 59.1 45.8 45.7 34.5 22.5 15.3 11.9 9.1 6.6 4.9 7.9

Slovenia 8.3 7.9 6.1 8.9 8.6 7.5 5.7 3.7 2.5 2.5 3.8 5.5

Slovakia 6.0 6.7 10.4 12.2 7.2 3.5 8.4 7.5 2.8 4.3 1.9 3.9

Finland 1.2 1.3 1.3 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.6 3.9

Sweden 1.8 1.0 0.5 1.3 2.7 1.9 2.3 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.7 3.3

United Kingdom

1.8 1.6 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 3.6

Turkey 85.6 82.1 61.4 53.2 56.8 47.0 25.3 10.1 8.1 9.3 8.8 10.4

Iceland 1.8 1.3 2.1 4.4 6.6 5.3 1.4 2.3 1.4 4.6 3.6 12.8

Norway 2.6 2.0 2.1 3.0 2.7 0.8 2.0 0.6 1.5 2.5 0.7 3.4

Switzerland : : : : : : : : : 1.0 0.8 2.3

Japan 1.8 0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 3.8

United States2.3 1.6 2.2 3.4 2.8 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.8 1.4

Annual average rate of change in Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs), G7 countries and EU-27, 1998-2010 (%)

-IMF, Eurostat-

20

  1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Canada 1.0 1.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.7 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.4 0.0 0.5

France 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 3.2 0.5 1.0

Germany 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.3 2.8 0.1 -0.4

Italy 2.0 1.7 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 3.5 0.7 0.6

Japan 0.6 -0.3 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 1.4 -1.0 -0.6

United Kingdom 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.3 3.6 1.5 0.8

United States 1.5 2.2 3.4 2.8 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.8 -0.9 -0.1

EU-27 1.3 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 3.7 : :

EXTERNALTRADE

Deficit both in the average value of goods imported from EU countries

and from extra-EU area

> exports from the extra-EU area

(+ 2.3 %)

and < from the EU-area countries

(-2.4 %)

1997-2008: external trade,

generalized increase of imports and exports

May’08-’09:Total foreign

trade, imports more affected by

reduction of Italian commercial

flows. Opposite in trade with

EU countries

Italian exports, imports and balances trade with UE and in total, May 2009 -Istat-

22

  Values in million of Euros Percentage changes (%)

  May 2009 Jan-May '09May '09/May '08

Jan-May '09/Jan-May '08

  Foreign trade with EU countries  

Exports(FOB values)

13 785 67 727 -31.7 -27.5

Imports(CIF values)

13 154 67 168 -24.6 -24.6

Balance trade 631 559    

  Total foreign trade  

Exports(FOB values)

24 132 117 105 -27.0 -24.9

Imports(CIF values)

22 945 120 602 -30.8 -25.6

Balance trade 1 187 -3 497    

Development of external trade, Italy ( thousands EUR)-Eurostat-

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Imports Exports Balance

Trade of Italy with EU-27 and external to EU-27 (%) -Eurostat-

    1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

In EU-27

Share in total exp

60.4

62.5

64.0

61.5

61.0

60.9

62.4

61.9

61.2

61.2

60.1

58.5

Share in total imp

64.9

66.1

65.7

61.0

61.9

62.8

63.3

62.2

59.4

57.6

57.0

54.1

Ext EU-27

Share in total imp

35.1

33.9

34.3

39.0

38.1

37.2

36.7

37.8

40.6

42.4

43.0

45.9

Share in total exp

39.6

37.5

36.0

38.5

39.0

39.1

37.6

38.1

38.8

38.8

39.9

41.5

24

Current account transactions, Italy, 1997-2008 (1 000 million ECU/EUR)-Eurostat-

25

 199

7199

8199

9200

0200

1200

2200

3200

4200

5200

6200

72008

Goods

Exports

210.3

216.5

221.5

260.9

273.6

267.6

263.6

283.3

299.4

332.8

366.4

370.6

Imports

168.9

184.6

199.4

250.5

256.2

253.5

253.7

274.5

298.9

343.0

363.5

370.7

Balance

41.4 31.9 22.1 10.4 17.4 14.0 9.9 8.9 0.5

-10.

2

2.9 0.0

Services                        

Exports

64.0 60.0 55.1 61.3 64.4 63.5 63.4 68.2 71.9 78.7 81.6 83.7

Imports

62.2 56.4 54.0 60.1 64.4 66.6 65.8 67.0 72.4 80.0 88.6 91.5

Balance

1.8 3.6 1.1 1.1 0.0 -3.1 -2.4 1.2 -0.5 -1.3 -7.0 -7.8

LABOUR MARKETIn 2008, unemployment grew once again involving men to a greater extent

In 2008, male’s population represented the most part

of the Italian active population although its weight on the

total decreased

Labour market conditions have worsened

as a result of the ongoing crisis: growth in employment in 2008

lower than growth in the number of unemployed

people

(-) self-employed workers

and (+) in employees ||

stability of standard employment in 2008

compared with 2007

Active population, Italy, 1998-2008-Eurostat-

27

 

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Total23 06

623 248 23 464 23 678 23 891

24 10

224 364 24 451

24 66

124 727 25 096

Male14 33

714 358 14 432 14 462 14 552

14 62

514 546 14 640

14 74

014 779 14 884

Female 8 729 8 889 9 032 9 216 9 339 9 476 9 818 9 811 9 921 9 948 10 212

Employment and unemployment rates by gender, Italy, 1997-2007 (%) -Eurostat-

28

30

40

50

60

70

80

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007MalesTotalFemales

0

4

8

12

16

20

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

FemalesTotalMales

Unemployment rate (% of total labour force) and employment rate (million of persons) G7 countries, 2008

-IMF-

29

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Canada

France

Germany

ITALY

Japan

United Kingdom

United States

0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000

Canada

France

Germany

ITALY

Japan

United Kingdom

United States

CONCLUSIONSThe worldwide economic slowdown is likely to hit

Italy hard. The recession is likely to extend through much of

2009, with a slow pick-up in 2010.Falling export growth and deteriorating financial

conditions have hit investment hard.Unemployment will rise significantly while

inflation will decline slowly. The authorities have rightly abstained from

significant discretionary fiscal expansion, while redirecting some spending within the existing budget envelope to better sustain domestic demand, notably private consumption.

The budget deficit will nevertheless increase substantially in 2009 as the recession hits revenues, and may increase somewhat further in 2010 despite the planned fiscal consolidation.

For any further inquiry,please do not hesitate to

contact

Gemma Asero

E-mail address: marzolina@hotmail.itGsm: +39.333.1043568 (Italy) +352.621.594020(Luxembourg)

Thank you for your attention