MIRACLEAuthors: Magdalena Skonieczna, Tomasz Walczykiewicz, Łukasz Woźniak, Ewa Jakusik, Alena Bartosova, René Capell, Seifeddine Jomaa, Ainis Lagzdiņš, Arturs Veinbergs The BONUS

MIRACLE

Project acronym: MIRACLE

Project title: Mediating integrated actions for sustainable ecosystems services in a changing climate

Period covered: from 1.01.2017 to 31.05.2017

Deliverable name: Revision of modelled scenarios as suggested in stakeholder workshops 3

Del. No. 2.4

Authors: Magdalena Skonieczna, Tomasz Walczykiewicz, Łukasz

Woźniak, Ewa Jakusik, Alena Bartosova, René Capell,

Seifeddine Jomaa, Ainis Lagzdiņš, Arturs Veinbergs

The BONUS MIRACLE project has received funding from by BONUS (Art 185), funded jointly by the EU

and the Innovation Fund Denmark, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Latvian Ministry of Education and

Science, Polish National Centre for Research and Development, and Swedish Research Council for

Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS).

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Contents

1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 3

2 REVISON AND SUMMARY OF SCENARIOS FROM 3RD WORKSHOP ....................................................... 3

2.1 Berze ................................................................................................................................... 3

2.1.1 Pathways .................................................................................................................... 3

2.1.2 Climate change modelling approach .......................................................................... 6 2.2 Helge Å .............................................................................................................................. 12

2.2.1 Pathways .................................................................................................................. 13

2.2.2 Climate change modelling approach ........................................................................ 15 2.3 Reda .................................................................................................................................. 15

2.3.1 Pathways .................................................................................................................. 15

2.3.2 Climate change modelling approach ........................................................................ 16 2.4 Selke ................................................................................................................................. 17

2.4.1 Pathways .................................................................................................................. 20

2.4.2 Climate change modelling approach ........................................................................ 21

3 RESULTS OF MODELING OF FINAL PATHWAYS WITH CONSIDERATION OF POSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGES (RCP

8.5) 21

3.1 Berze ................................................................................................................................. 21

3.1.1 Pathways modeling results ...................................................................................... 21 3.2 Helge Å .............................................................................................................................. 33

3.2.1 Pathways results of modelling ................................................................................. 33 3.3 Reda .................................................................................................................................. 37

3.3.1 Pathways modeling results ...................................................................................... 46 3.4 Selke ................................................................................................................................. 47

3.4.1 Pathways modeling results ...................................................................................... 47

4 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................... 52

5 LITERATURE ....................................................................................................................... 53

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MIRACLE PROJECT REPORT Page 3 of 56

1 Introduction

In this report the results and summary of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd1 rounds of the MIRACLE

stakeholder workshops are described. This report mainly includes modelling results for the

measures that were discussed during the last workshop in each of the catchments.

2 Revison and summary of scenarios from 3rd workshop

2.1 Berze

2.1.1 Pathways

Overall, five meetings in three rounds of workshops were organized in Latvia to discuss

proposed measures in the existing and upcoming planning documents with the core group of

stakeholders and to identify measures suggested by these stakeholders. The core group of

stakeholders consisted of representatives from governmental institutions, e.g., the Ministry of

Environmental Protection and Regional Development, the Ministry of Agriculture, the State

Environmental Services, the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre, the Health

Inspectorate, the Real Properties of Ministry of Agriculture, the Rural Support Service, Jelgava

and Dobele local municipalities and their enterprises, representatives of NGOs such as the

Latvian Rural Advisory and Training Centre, the Latvian Fund for Nature, the Baltic

Environmental Forum, the Farmers Parliament, the Latvian Association of Organic Farming, and

the project partners from the University of Latvia and Latvia University of Agriculture. In the

Berze catchment, the first four meetings with stakeholders led to the identification of set of

nutrient mitigation measures combined in three pathways. More detailed information about

the identified pathways was presented in the report Deliverable 2.3.

Pathway 1 - ,,Business as usual” pathway (2015-2030)

Pathway 2 – Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants (2021-2030)

Pathway 3 – Agri-Ecological Measures (2021-2030)

In Berze, several smaller workshops were run as part of the 1st and 2nd round, and meeting 4

was part of the third round of stakeholder workshops. After that stakeholder meeting , the

wastewater authority and the farmers organization in particular had several suggestions how to

improve the list of measures evaluated and modelled using the HYPE model. These suggestions

1 As part of the 3

rd round of workshops in the MIRACLE project, the 4

th workshop was organized in the Selkea

catchment , whereas in Berze catchment it was the 5th

meeting.

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were taken into consideration and implemented in the model setup, and the updated model

setup and simulation results were presented in meeting 5.

The working group on wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) measures suggested to reduce the

number of WWTPs that would be upgraded from 14 to 3; those where infrastructural

improvements would be optimal and needed. It was recommended to include the WWTPs of

the Auri, Penkule and Kirpeni settlements in the pathway as these facilities are old and their

renovation/replacement could result in meaningful nutrient reduction effects. Another

suggestion was that the wastewater collection systems at the Biksti and Auri plants should be

inspected using video surveillance. It is believed that if groundwater and stormwater infiltration

into the sewer system could be eliminated, the discharge of untreated wastewater with

associated negative impacts would be reduced. Overall, it was decided that in Pathway 2

(Upgrading of Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants) three wastewater treatment plants with

a capacity of 300 person equivalents (PE) each would be upgraded to the treatment level

recommended by HELCOM 28E/5 (total nitrogen of 25 mg/l, total phosphorus of 2 mg/l), and

the existing ceramic sewer system would be replaced to eliminate storm water and

groundwater infiltration.

The farmers organization “Farmers Parliament” suggested to reduce the application rates of

mineral and organic fertilizers from the maximum allowed (the assumption in pathway 1) to the

levels actually used by farmers. The maximum fertilization rates of nitrogen (N) for different

agricultural crops are calculated by farmers based on the expected yields. These rates are

defined in the national legislation - Regulation of the Cabinet of Ministers No. 834 adopted on

December 23, 2014 “Regulation Regarding Protection of Water and Soil from Pollution with

Nitrates Caused by Agricultural Activity”. For example, for winter wheat, if farmers expects to

have a yield of less than 3 t ha-1, the maximum nitrogen (N) application rate would be 80 kg ha-1.

Similarly, if the expected yield of winter wheat would be in the range 3 to 5 t/ha, the N

application rate would be 120 kg/ha. Phosphorus (P) application rates are not limited by Latvian

legislation. Overall, the suggestions by the “Farmers Parliament” were taken into consideration

and the N and P application rates for the main crops were adjusted in the HYPE setup, and the

model recalibrated taking into account the amount of fertilizers used. The changes in the

pathways representation [versus in Deliverable 2.3] and the measures included are summarized

in Table 1. Bold text denotes changes in comparison with Deliverable 2.3.

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Table 1 Summary of measures included in the development pathways for the Berze River basin as discussed in

the 5th

stakeholder meeting (3rd

round of workshops); modifications in response to stakeholder suggestions are

shown in bold in column 2.

Pathway Measure Description Stakeholder Model

representation

Measures Pathway 1 – “Business as usual”

Organic farming Measure implemented on 1305 ha (previously 3266 ha)

Farming without mineral fertilizers and chemical pesticides is expected to reduce pressures from diffuse agricultural sources and improve water quality

Rural Support Service of Latvia

1) Use only organic fertilizers for tile drained grasslands on suggested area

2) Use only organic fertilizers for the suggested crops on suggested area

Measures Pathway 2 – Upgrading of Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants

Upgrading small municipal wastewater treatment plants to meet HELCOM recommendations

Effluent quality from three (previously 14) wastewater treatment plants improved to below 2 mg/l P tot and 25 mg/l N tot

Reduces the nutrient discharge from small wastewater treatment plants

Wastewater authority

1) Reduced point sources nutrient contributions, including storm water inputs

2) Reduced point sources nutrient contributions, excluding storm water inputs

Measures Pathway 3 – Agri-Ecological Measures

Optimization of mineral and organic fertilizer use

Reduced application of mineral and organic fertilizers by 5%, 10% and 20% for all arable and grassland areas Previously: Reduced application of mineral and organic N by 20% for all arable and grassland areas

Efficient usage of mineral and organic fertilizers as well as reduced nutrient losses from agricultural areas

Environmental authority

Reduced input of mineral and organic fertilizer to all arable and grassland areas; reduced amount of plant residues due to reduced yields in the “CropData” file

Measures Pathway 4 – Upgrading Hydro-electric Plants (new measures)

Establishment of fish-ways at existing hydro-electric plants

Establishment of measure for fish migration at five hydro-electric plants

Will improve fish migration and spawning opportunities,

Environmental authority

Not applicable

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(Berze, Dobele, Annenieku, Bikstu-Paleju, Bikstupe)

aquatic biodiversity and recreational angling opportunities

2.1.2 Climate change modelling approach

The Berze River sub-basins were grouped by the nearest grid points of meteorological stations

used for climate change projection purposes, with daily weather data including air temperature

and precipitation from 1971 to 2100. The following grid points were used: a) 7067 to represent

the sub-basins 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5; b) 7173 to represent the sub-basins 7 and 8; c) 7068 to represent

the sub-basins 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 (main outlet).

To evaluate the effects of climate change on N and P mitigation pathways (Sum effects of

Pathway1+Pathway2+Pathway3), the time periods 1991-2010 and 2011-2030 were selected,

with the respective warming periods 1971-1990 and 1991-2010. Modelling results for air

temperature, precipitation, runoff, nutrient concentrations and loads are given on a monthly

basis for the two Regional climate models separately. Note that measures included in Pathway 3

when evaluating the sum effects of all pathways consisted of 20% reduction in N and P

application rates and buffer strips of 2+10 m.

Effects of climate change using the projected data sets of the WRF-IPSL-CM5A-MR climate

model

When climate change projections of air temperature and precipitation were implemented in the

HYPE model, the modelling results showed that long term average annual temperature could

increase by 0.710C from 7.050C to 7.760C, average annual precipitation could increase by 11 mm

from 714 mm to 725 mm, while the average annual runoff in the Berze River might decrease by

10 mm from 310 mm to 300 mm for the period 2011-2030. A possible explanation for the

reduced runoff is that a predicted increase in average annual air temperature and precipitation

in July and August would cause an increased evapotranspiration, which could lead to reduced

runoff (Figure 1).

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Figure 1 Monthly air temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Berze River basin as modelled using the data

sets of Regional climate model WRF-IPSL-CM5A-MR.

The model results indicates that the total load of N and P at the outlet of the Berze River basin

might decrease. For example, the load of N tot could decrease by 49 tonnes per year from 726 t

to 677 t, whereas the P tot load could decrease by 500 kg per year from 11 600 kg to 11 100 kg

(Figure 2). This can be explained by the reduced runoff, which is a key component in nutrient

mass load calculations.

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Figure 2 Monthly nitrogen and phosphorus load at the outlet of the Berze River basin as modelled using the data

sets of Regional climate model WRF-IPSL-CM5A-MR.

The changes in average annual concentrations of N tot and P tot were inconsistent when the

modelling results for the time periods of 1991-2010 and 2011-2030 were compared. A negligible

decrease in average annual concentration of N tot (from 2.05 mg/l to 1.98 mg/l) was indicated,

while the average annual concentration of P tot may increase slightly (from 0.0445 mg/l to

0.0462 mg/l) (Figure 3).

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Figure 3 Average modelled monthly concentrations of total nitrogen (N tot) and total phosphorus (P tot) at the

outlet of the Berze River basin for two time periods, using data sets from the Regional climate model WRF-IPSL-

CM5A-MR.

Effects of climate change on the basis of the projected data sets of RCA4-CanESM2 climate

model

The modelling results obtained using the data sets from the regional climate model RCA4-

CanESM2 also indicated that the long term average annual air temperature could increase by

0.710C from 7.050C to 7.760C, but that the annual precipitation could increase by 7 mm from

719 mm to 726 mm. Also in this case, the results showed that the annual runoff in the Berze

River basin might decrease by 10.5 mm from 302 mm to 291 mm (Figure 4).

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Figure 4 Monthly air temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Berze River basin for two time periods

modelled using the data sets of the regional climate model RCA4-CanESM2.

As a consequence of the lower reduction in runoff predicted with this climate model, the total

load of nitrogen and phosphorus at the outlet of Berze River basin would decrease less; the load

of tot N could decrease by 30 tons per year (from 674 t to 643 t), while the tot P load could

decrease by 330 kg per year from 10 740 kg to 10 410 kg (Figure 5).

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Figure 5 Monthly nitrogen and phosphorus load at the outlet of the Berze River basin for two time periods

modelled using the data sets of the regional climate model RCA4-CanESM2.

Also with this climate model, nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations at the outlet of Berze

River basin would change only slightly. The average annual concentration of tot N would

decrease from 1.92 mg/l to 1.88 mg/l, and the average annual concentration of tot P would

increase from 0.0438 mg/l to 0.0445 mg/l (Figure 6). The decrease in tot N concentrations

would be more pronounced from September to January, while increased concentrations could

be expected in the spring months (March to May). These results highlight the importance to

implement nutrient reduction measures that have an effect also during the cold season of the

year.

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Figure 6 Average monthly concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus at the outlet of the Berze River

basin as modelled using the data sets of Regional climate model RCA4-CanESM2.

Preparatory activities for modeling case areas.

The calibration process for the hydrological parameters was finished ahead of nitrogen and

phosphorus calibration. During meetings with the core group of stakeholders it was suggested

that the model setup should include the average distribution of agricultural crops, covering the

entire calibration period (2005-2014) instead of a single representative year. Overall, the

simulated average discharge was a little lower than the observed values, with a PBIAS of -1.7%.

In particular, the model output underestimated the high flows in the autumn and spring

seasons. In contrast, the discharges in February, June, and July were a bit overestimated.

Overall, the Hype model performance for the Berze River basin can be characterized as good

regarding the simulated daily discharge, (NSE = 0.81). The most recent simulation results for

daily values of total nitrogen (NSE = 0.56) and total phosphorus (NSE = 0.21) concentrations

show considerable improvements in the model performance, relative to the results reported in

the previous deliverable (report D 2.3), when the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients

were negative for both tot N and tot P. However, even though the model performance has

improved since the previous report, there is still need for further improvements.

2.2 Helge Å

In the first workshop, participants were invited to present their visions for 2050. It enabled a

discussion based on perceptions linked to participants. An overview of a plan of measures for

the Basin was presented based on the formal River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs). The

participants were invited to critically reflect on the model and plans. Based upon this, the first

pathway, called “Business as usual” was developed. This pathway represents the formal

program of measures identified by the government representatives. The governance associated

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with the identification and stipulation of these measures is associated with a top-down

approach. The Water Authority – who is leading the work – has been criticized for limited

engagement with actors and representatives at the local level. Moreover, several stakeholders

noted that the massive historical transformation of the landscape and the emergence of new

ecosystems (such as grasslands and pastures) have not been taken into account in the

identification of measures. For instance, the removal of barriers for fish migration and other

water regulating measures have in some cases led to the flooding of pastures and grasslands.

2.2.1 Pathways

Pathway 1 includes the following measures:

Liming of soil of water bodies

Crop land buffer strips

Non-productive field margins

Upgrading of rural sewage treatment systems

Created wetlands

Upgrading or removal of traditional water regulating dams

The second workshop led to the development of two alternative pathways. Pathway 2, called

“An ecosystems approach”, is based on investments in ecosystems and shows costs and benefits

associated with ecosystem services from a local context specific perspective. The aim of

pathway 2 is to assess the broader societal gains using an ecosystem services approach and

identify targeted measures that can generate multiple benefits. The following measures were

included in Pathway 2:

Storm water ponds

Flood plains

Riparian zones

Wetlands

Pathway 3, “Improved water management in the forest sector” targets the forest sector

specifically to provide improved understanding of potential actions associated with the forest

sector. Some measure categories – e.g. riparian buffer zones - are included in both Pathway 2

and 3. In these cases, pathway 3 includes measures located in predominantly forested areas

whereas Pathway 2 includes wetlands and riparian buffer zones in the agricultural landscape.

The following measures were included in Pathway 3:

Riparian zones

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Facilitation of fish migration

Re-establishment of forest wetlands

As a result of discussions in workshop 3, Pathway 2 and 3 were slightly altered. Two measures

were added to Pathway 2 and one measure was added to Pathway 3. Consequently, these

pathways included the following measures after Workshop 3:

Pathway 2:

Storm water ponds

Flood plains

Riparian zones (agriculture)

Wetlands

Bio-manipulation of lakes

Re-meandering

Pathway 3:

Riparian zones (forest)

Facilitation of fish migration

Re-establishment of forest wetlands

Conversion from coniferous to broadleaved forest

Overview of revised pathways

The baseline and Pathway 1 have remained the same after workshop 3. Pathway 2 was revised;

a new measure “re-meandering” was simulated with HYPE. Pathway 3 was revised but the new

measures could not be simulated by the model. The results for baseline, Pathway 1, and

Pathway 3 presented here are the same as in the report Deliverable 2.3; only Pathway 2 results

have been updated.

Local streams within a drainage area of two tributaries to Helgeå, Almaå and Vinneå, were

identified as having a good potential for restoration of meanders. It was assumed that re-

meandering resulted in a 50% increase in local stream length, i.e. for all tributaries to Almaå and

Vinneå. Adding the re-meandering to Pathway 2 did not have a significant impact on the

modeling results regarding any of the output variables.

Final results of the modelling are shown (maps and graphs) in chapter 3.2.1.

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Detailed approach for climate change approach was presented in the previous report,

Deliverable 2.3, which includes analysis of land use changes and results for long-term local sub-

basin runoff and nutrient transport.

2.3 Reda

In this chapter, the final pathways as presented in the report D 2.3 are briefly described, while

the modelling results are presented in chapter 3.3 and Table 5.

2.3.1 Pathways

In the Reda catchment, the suggested pathways targeting urban and rural actions were

discussed in the 3rd workshop. The workshop was focused on analyzing the following problems:

1) reservoirs located in the cities,

2) small depressions with no outlet,

3) recreation and tourism areas.

The participants were divided into 3 groups, with the task to indicate the most effective and

cheap measures regarding performance and maintenance. All groups proposed that measures

to reduce the flood risk were top priority and would bring the desired effect. They also

suggested that such measures should be implemented throughout the entire catchment area.

For example, one group emphasized that the most effective measures would be those that

reduce runoff induced by heavy precipitation close to the sources, i.e. by increasing the

transport time through various local retention measures.

Several of the measures prioritized by stakeholders could not be modelled using the HYPE

model; the measures actually included for modelling in each pathway are listed below.

Pathway 1 Business as usual - Overview of current and planned measures

Improved waste water infrastructure:

building of household wastewater treatment plants,

building of waste water treatment plants,

building of septic tanks,

Standard agro-environmental measures:

buffer strips,

diffuse source pollution (from agriculture),

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The business as usual pathway reflects the implementation approaches (governance) in the

Reda case study area.

Pathway 2 Focus on Urban Actions

Closed and open small urban retention infrastructure

Flood protection infrastructure

Pathway 3 Focus on Rural Actions

Doubled application dose of mineral fertilizers

Pathway 4:

Buffer strips

Greening in agricultural areas

Enhanced waste water infrastructure

Pathway 5:

Mixture of Agri-Environmental actions with the greatest impact and efficiency (based on

measures from pathway 4).


SHMI models results centered around 2030, the period 2015-2045, was used for impact

modelling purposes and compared with observation data sets for the period 2004-2014.

The Reda catchment subbasins were grouped by the nearest grid points of meteorological

stations (Appendix 1).

Thermal conditions

Monthly average temperature for the period 2015-2045 according to WRF model is predicted

to decrease by -0,36°C when compared to the average temperature at Gdynia for period 2004-

2014 or increase by 0,17°C in relation to Lebork empirical data.

According to RCA model it is predicted that in subbasin 6531 and 6532 in period 2015-2045 the

average temperature will increase approximately 0,7°C and 0,24°C, respectively, when

compared to Gdynia empirical data.

Pluvial conditions

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WRF model projections in 2015-2045 shows that monthly average precipitation will decrease by

approximately -0,5 mm when compared to Wejherowo empirical data in period 2004-2014 and

increase 0,2mm with comparison to Tepcz 2004-2014 time series.

In the RCA model it is assumed that monthly average precipitation will increase about 13,6 mm

when compared to Wejherowo and Tepcz 2004-2014 empirical data, and decrease

approximately -0,7mm when compared to Tepcz.

A summary of the updated results of modelling of the Reda case study after the revision of the

3th workshop are given below (chapter 3.3).

2.4 Selke

The 3rd workshop was conducted following four given topics:

Topic 1 (Introduction to the Workshop): Summary of the results of the previous

workshops,

Topic 2: Simulation results on future scenarios and measures in the Selke area and

presentation of the visualization tool,

Topic 3: Costs of the measures and first results of a cost-benefit analysis of the measures,

Topic 4: Outlook for the next workshop.

Details description of the outputs of the workshop 3rd is given below.

Topic 1 (Introduction to the workshop)

First, the agenda of the workshop was briefly summarized in the context of the Selke case study

where also the main points of the previous workshops are listed. Second, the planned targets of

the workshop and the next steps after the workshop were explained. This workshop focused on

the discussion of the effectiveness of the measures as well as their costs and benefits.

Furthermore, the workshop was used as a platform to answer questions that were still open,

and data gaps (e.g., the costs of the different measures). The next work steps after the

workshop including discussions with representatives from the wastewater sector and the

landscape restoration associations, updates of the cost-benefit analysis and the calculation of

the cost-effectiveness of the relevant measures and the analysis and discussion of alternative

approaches for implementing measures in individual discussions.

After the presentation, a few points on the framework conditions for the measures

implementation were discussed:

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Existing framework conditions restrict the scope to implement appropriate payment

calculations of the agri-environmental measures. Inadequate payments are an important

reason for low acceptance and implementation of measures.

Longer term periods than 5 years are important for consistency and planning reliability.

More flexible framework conditions, allowing more flexibility to adapt the measures to

local conditions, are important.

Consultation on the modernization and simplification of the common agricultural policy

after 2020 is currently taking place. The consultation was open until 2 May 2017. More

information can be found at the following link:

https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/consultations/cap-modernising/2017_en

The role of foundations, such as “Stiftung Kulturlandschaft Sachsen-Anhalt” (Foundation

Cultural Landscape of the Sachsen-Anhalt State), and the land company in the

implementation of measures was discussed.

The role of the landscape restoration associations was also addressed in the discussion.

In other federal states the landscape restoration associations have the possibility of landed

property, which facilitates the implementation of measures in watersheds. In Saxony-Anhalt

State, this possibility does not (yet) exists. Furthermore, the further implementation of the

Selke case study has to take account of the fact that there is currently a generation change

in the landscape restoration associations.

The activities of the landscape restoration associations can be funded 100% through the

WFD.

A water development concept has already been published for the Bode. A water

development concept is also planned for the Selke, but with a purely morphological goal.

Topic 2 (simulation results on future scenarios and measures in the Selke area and

presentation of the visualization tool)

Based on the modeling results discussed in the former workshop, revised results were

presented and used as a basis for the presentation of the visualization tool. The focus of the

presentation was on phosphorus (concentrations of total and soluble phosphorus). In addition

to modeling the Baseline, the visualization tool was used to demonstrate results for the

agricultural measures of reduced tillage, contour ploughing, buffer strips implementation and

https://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/consultations/cap-modernising/2017_en

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the combined implementation of the measures. For this, corresponding maps and graphics of

the tool were presented.

Results showed that the HYPE model could reasonably well represent the measured soluble and

total phosphorus during the baseline period (2005-2014) for the three gauging stations

Silberhuette, Meisdorf and Hausneindorf. Then, the effect of the different agricultural measures

(listed above) were determined by the model and compared to the baseline simulations. Results

showed that the “joint implementation” measure; where all measures are considered together,

perform better for mitigation of nutrients loads (N and P) compared to any single measure

effect. In addition, results suggested that the implementation of the 3rd pathway , i.e. increasing

the number of households connected to sewage plants, was the most efficient measure in

reducing the phosphorus loads.

Discussion

The share of the population that is not associated to the sewage plants (5, 15 or 20%)

and how far in future can be connected to the sewage network was briefly discussed.

The current status of measures implementations (such as buffer strips, reduced tillage)

and further improvement and extension of their implementations, considering some

limitations, were discussed with the group of stakeholders.

The usefulness of the flexibility of the visualization tool has highlighted the ability to

present and compare results on different spatial levels, both cartographically and

graphically.

A comparative presentation of the effects of the scenarios up to 2045 will be planned for

the next workshop - also taking into account different climatic scenarios.

Topic 3 (costs of the measures and first results of a cost-benefit assessment of the measures)

The first results of the cost-benefit analysis as well as the cost-effectiveness of the different

measures were presented. The combination of measures in the various scenarios has been

briefly explained (taking into account the parallel approaches to the reduction of nutrient and

the improvement of the water structure adopted at the former workshop) and then explaining

more detailed assumptions about the scope of the measures and the cost calculations used. The

aim of the first results was to validate the implemented assumptions as well as used cost

information, or to show still existing data gaps. Thus, some of the used cost information comes

from studies on comparable measures in other federal states in Germany or European Union

member states. However, the used approaches to cost calculation were considered plausible in

the discussion. In addition, the influence of the shadow price used on the quantification of the

benefit was highlighted. Here the problem of using different shadow rates in previous studies

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was shown. A sensitivity analysis is provided to take these differences into account. Within the

framework of the preliminary cost-effectiveness analyses the reduced nitrogen fertilization

shows the best result. However, some cost data still needs to be adjusted and missing measures

(e.g., to improve the water structure) to find.

Topic 4 (Outlook) and Next steps

Further discussions with representatives from the wastewater sector, landscape

restoration associations and the land company,

Update the model simulation of effects

o Update the cost-benefit analysis and calculate the cost-effectiveness of the

relevant measures,

o Face-to-face discussion of ways to implement measures to be done in individual

talks,

Schedule

o In-depth discussions on the implementation of measures in May,

o 4th Workshop of the Selke Fall Study envisaged on 8th of June 2017,

It was also suggested to carry out a joint workshop in autumn with another project in another

case study in Saxony-Anhalt. As the the Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) is

involved in both projects, the UFZ will take over the organization.

2.4.1 Pathways

The pathways to change for the Selke catchment were described in detail in the report

Deliverable 2.3 and are only briefly summarized below.

Pathway 1 – Business as usual

The business as usual pathway reflects the continuation of currently implemented measures

and implementation approaches (governance) in the Selke case study area, as outlined in.

Pathway 2– Ecosystem service approach

This pathway is based on the suggestion to stronger target, and ensure the delivery of multiple

ecosystem services, from agricultural land uses and the management of streams in agriculturally

used areas.

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Pathway 3 – Waste water treatment

Pathway 3 focuses on rural point sources of wastewater in the Selke catchment.


For modelling pathways and with climate change impact assessments in the Selkea catchment,

data with climate forcing scenarios for MIRACLE from SMHI were used as described in the

report Deliverable 2.3.

3 Results of modeling of final pathways with consideration of possible

climate changes (RCP 8.5)

For the analysis of the impact of climate change it was agreed to use RCP 8.5 climate scenario

from the CMIP5 ensemble Global climate model with the projections by EURO-CORDEX

(www.cordex.org, e.g. [Jacob, D et al., 2013]) to Regional climate models WRF (Institut Pierre

Simon Laplace (IPSL)) and RCA4 (SMHI) provided by SMHI. These two Regional climate model

data sets: 1) WRF-IPSL-CM5A-MR and 2) RCA4-CanESM2 were used in order to show the highest

increase of precipitation rate and temperatures until 2030, respectively. The selection was

based on mid-century changes in summer, under the assumption that changes in summer most

strongly influence changes in nutrient dynamics. It is important to note that the chosen

ensemble members do not represent the full ensemble spread, as this would necessitate a

larger number of members in the sample, but instead try to reflect the high end of projected

changes which are still overall small for the period of interest.

3.1 Berze

3.1.1 Pathways modeling results

In general, the measures included in the 2nd (Upgrading of Municipal Wastewater Treatment

Plants) and 3rd Pathway (Agri-Ecological Measures) are expected to be implemented starting

2021, whereas the measures in the 1st Pathway (“Business as usual”) are implemented already

from 2015. The effects of particular measures implemented are summarized in Table 2.

Table 2 Comparison of the modeling results on total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations and loads for

the baseline scenario and measures implemented (Berze catchment)

Pathways

Total Nitrogen Total Phosphorus

mg L-1 Load, kg/year Load Diff.,% mg L-1 Load, kg/year Load Diff.,%

Baseline 2.835 668386 0.0544 8708

PW1 2.823 666170 -0.331 0.0540 8629 -0.907

PW2 2.817 665516 -0.098 0.0526 8509 -1.381

http://www.cordex.org/

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Buff2+5m 2.827 669072 0.436 0.0523 8377 -2.921

Buff2+10m 2.827 670066 0.585 0.0515 8204 -4.918

NP -5% 2.719 636921 -4.391 0.0539 8608 -0.235

NP -10% 2.628 611210 -8.250 0.0538 8586 -0.497

NP -20% 2.517 579691 -12.982 0.0537 8551 -0.895

Joint 2.522 583915 -12.638 0.0500 8025 -7.839

On average, the results showed a decrease of concentrations for both total nitrogen and total

phosphorus when the measures suggested would be implemented (Table 2). However, the load

differences provide more detailed insight in the performance of the measures as load is a

function of concentration and discharge. Total phosphorus load was reduced within a range of

0.24% to 7.8% for all simulated measures, while the total nitrogen load was reduced for most of

the measures with an exception of buffer strips.

As buffer strips showed an increase in the total nitrogen load, it is useful to discuss these results

in greater detail. Buffer strips are represented in the model setup as implementation and

maintenance of permanent grasslands (without any fertilization) in agricultural areas replacing

agricultural crops. As expected buffer strips serve as a filter to reduce negative effects of surface

runoff and soil erosion, which results in reduced losses of particulate phosphorus and total

phosphorus (Table 2). However, this is not the case when nitrogen losses are simulated. It is

assumed that the hydrological component is the main reason for an increase in total nitrogen

load. The HYPE model results indicated that implementation of buffer strips increased discharge

in the river on average by approximately 1.6 m3/s, which furthermore resulted in increased

mass load of total nitrogen. It is likely that groundwater or/and subsurface drainage

contribution from permanent grasslands was miscalculated in the model setup that was used.

The greatest reduction in total nitrogen load was simulated for the measure where nitrogen

application rate used for agricultural crops is reduced (Figure 7). This measure could reduce

total nitrogen load by 86 t per year, the same measure shows negligible impact in terms of total

phosphorus reduction – 0.08 t per year. As expected, an improved nutrient removal at small

municipal wastewater treatment plants, along with the implementation of buffer strips, showed

the greatest total phosphorus load reduction (Figure 8). Joint implementation of all pathways

would result in a reduced total phosphorus load by 0.68 t per year.

Reduced nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations proposed by the improvements of small

wastewater treatment plants to the limits of the HELCOM recommendations showed greater

relative reduction of phosphorus loads than of nitrogen loads (Table 2, Figure 7 and Figure 8).

These results may indicate that phosphorus removal rate might need further improvements as

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the existing wastewater treatment plants contribute a high proportion of phosphorus load in

the river. Whereas, further improvements in nitrogen removal efficiency at the existing

wastewater treatment plants would be less beneficial as the proportion of nitrogen load

originating from the existing wastewater treatment plants is low.

Figure 7 Reduction of total nitrogen load after the implementation of measures. PW1 – Pathway 1; PW2 –

Pathway 2; Buff2+5m and Buff2+10m – buffer strips 2 m along open drainage ditches and 5 m/10 m along

waterways of national significance; NP-5%, 10%, 20% – reduced application rate of fertilizers by 5%, 10%, 20%;

Joint – total effect from Pathway1, Pathway2, Pathway3 (included buffer strips 2+10 and NP reduction by 20%).

Figure 8 Reduction of total phosphorus load after the implementation of measures. PW1 – Pathway 1; PW2 –

Pathway 2; Buff2+5m and Buff2+10m – buffer strips 2 m along open drainage ditches and 5 m/10 m along

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waterways of national significance; NP-5%, 10%, 20% – reduced application rate of fertilizers by 5%, 10%, 20%;

Joint – total effect from Pathway1, Pathway2, Pathway3 (included buffer strips 2+10 and NP reduction by 20%).

The model results suggest that the current greening measures (in Pathway 1) will reduce the

concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus (Figure 9 and Figure 10). Total

phosphorus concentrations will be reduced more efficiently than the corresponding

concentrations of total nitrogen (difference of 1.8 times).

Total nitrogen concentrations were reduced evenly along the modeling time period, while total

phosphorus concentrations were reduced more in 2011. This can be characterized as above

average in terms of excess moisture with greater total runoff and lower average concentrations

of total phosphorus.

Figure 9 Effect of Pathway 1 on average daily concentrations of total nitrogen for the outlet of the Berze River

basin.

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Figure 10 Effect of Pathway 1 on average daily concentrations of total phosphorus for the outlet of the Berze

River basin.

The modeling results regarding improvement of small waste water treatment plants suggested

that total nitrogen concentrations would be reduced slightly after implementation of the

measures defined in Pathway 2 (Figure 11), while total phosphorus concentrations would be

reduced much more (Figure 12). These results clearly indicated that the current treatment

technologies applied at the existing WWTP are showing relatively poor efficiency in phosphorus

removal and the improvements suggested would have a significant positive effect. These results

show that both improvements in nutrient removal efficiency and storm waters separation need

to be considered to achieve the water quality goals for the Berze River basin.

Figure 11 Effect of improvements in some of the existing small municipal waste water treatment plants on

average daily total nitrogen concentrations at the outlet of the Berze River basin.

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Figure 12 Effect of improvements in some of the existing small municipal waste water treatment plants on

average daily total phosphorus concentrations at the outlet of the Berze River basin.

The effects of buffer strips as a part of Pathway 3

During the warm periods of the year, phosphorus is released to the river network mainly in a

soluble form through subsurface drainage and wastewater treatment plants. However, during

periods of high runoff, implementation of buffer strips could reduce the overland flow transport

of particulate phosphorus to the river and an overall reduction of tot P concentrations with 3 %

and 4.5 % was observed for the 2+5m and 2+10 m wide buffer strips, respectively (Figure 13 to

Figure 16). The effect on tot N concentrations were negligible, as discussed above.

Figure 13 Effect of the buffer strips (2 m + 5 m) on average daily total nitrogen concentrations for the outlet of

the Berze River basin.

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Figure 14 Effect of the buffer strips (2 m + 5 m) on average daily total phosphorus concentrations for the outlet of


Figure 15 Effect of the buffer strips (2 m + 10 m) on average daily total nitrogen concentrations for the outlet of


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Figure 16 Effect of the buffer strips (2 m + 10 m) on average daily total phosphorus concentrations for the outlet

of the Berze River basin.

The effects of 5%, 10% and 20% reduction of mineral fertilizer application rates in Pathway 3

The model results indicated that a reduced use of mineral fertilizers would reduce the riverine

tot N concentrations with up to 10 %, depending on how large the reduction would be (Figure

17 to Figure 19). The impact on the tot P concentrations in the river seemed to be much less,

between 0.1 and 0.5 % reduction.

Figure 17 Effect of 5% reduction of mineral fertilizers on average daily total nitrogen concentrations for the

outlet of the Berze River basin.

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Figure 20 Effect of 5% reduction of mineral fertilizers on average daily total phosphorus concentrations for the




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Figure 23 Effect of reduction of mineral fertilizers application rate on average total nitrogen and total

phosphorus concentrations for the outlet of the Berze River basin.

Figure 23 shows a non-liner relationship between the percentage of reduced mineral fertilizer

application rate and reduction in nutrient concentrations in the water. These results indicate

that the efficiency and positive impact of reduced mineral fertilizer application rate decrease

with each incremental reduction in application rate.

The effects of joint implementation of Pathways 1, 2 and 3

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These simulations included the measures of Pathways 1, 2 and 3, where Pathway 3 consisted of

20% reduction in the mineral fertilizer application rate and buffer strips with a width of 2+10 m.

The results for total nitrogen concentrations indicated that they could be reduced with on

average 11% (Figure 24). The reduced application of mineral fertilizers was the key component

affecting the nitrogen concentrations in the Berze River basin. However, for phosphorus, both

the upgrading of the small waste water treatment plants and the implementation of buffer

strips were contributing to the modelled reduction of the tot P concentrations by up to 8%

(Figure 25).

Figure 24 Effect of join implementation of the measures on average daily total nitrogen concentrations for the


Figure 25 Effect of join implementation of the measures on average daily total phosphorus concentrations for

the outlet of the Berze River basin.

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3.2 Helge Å

3.2.1 Pathways results of modelling

Impacts of the measures suggested in Pathway 2 were simulated independently to evaluate

their relative effectiveness and to isolate their effects. Pathway 1 does not contain any

measures that are not in the Baseline as it only evaluates the effect of climate change. Pathway

3 includes two measures that were simulated with HYPE. However, the individual impacts of

these two measures were not separated due to the fact that they are similar so the locations

are overlapping, and also due to the uncertainty associated with simulating their impacts.

The following Pathway 2 measures were simulated: storm water ponds, riparian zones, created

wetlands, and remeandering of streams. Similarly to full pathways, each measure was run for

two climate projections and with and without the land use change scenario. Due to the non-

linearity of the modeled processes, the combined effect of the measures simulated in Pathway

2 is lower than a sum of the individual impacts. Also note that some catchments may have no

measure modeled in Pathway 2, while others may include several measures of different types

and spatial extents.

Figure 26 to Figure 31 show modeled changes for Pathway 2 measures. Since all simulations

included the future climate projections, the maps of changes should be compared against the

changes modeled for Pathway 1. Discharge did not show any significant difference from

Pathway 1.

The nitrogen concentrations were also largely similar; although there were a couple of

catchments where we did see impacts of certain measures (the increase in concentration due to

the future climate is lower; Figure 28). This was mainly due to the location and size of the

measures that need to be considered when comparing efficiencies of different measures. Total

phosphorus concentration showed the largest variability among the individual impacts (Figure

30). The differences were most noticeable for created wetlands. The impact of that measure

was also largest when looking at nitrogen and phosphorus transport (Figure 29 and Figure 31).

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Figure 26 Modeled changes in long-term discharge means for all simulated measures in Pathway 2. Baseline

discharge in top-left panel, changes for combined measures (columns) and land use change (rows) in remaining

panels.

Figure 27 Modeled changes in long-term local sub-basin runoff means at sub-basin outlets for all simulated

measures in Pathway 2. Baseline concentrations in top left panel, changes for combined measures (columns) and

land use change (rows) in remaining panels.

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Figure 28 Modeled changes in long-term total nitrogen concentration means at sub-basin outlets for all

simulated measures in Pathway 2. Baseline concentrations in top left panel, changes for combined measures

(columns) and land use change (rows) in remaining panels.

Figure 29 Modeled changes in long-term total nitrogen transport means at sub-basin outlets for all simulated



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Figure 30 Modeled changes in long-term total phosphorus concentration means at sub-basin outlets for all

simulated measures in Pathway 2. Baseline concentrations in top left panel, changes for combined measures

(columns) and land use change (rows) in remaining panels.

Figure 31 Modeled changes in long-term total phosphorus transport means at sub-basin outlets for all simulated



Table 3 Modeled effect of measures in Pathway 2 on nitrogen and phosphorus transport from Helgeå.

Phosphorus Nitrogen

Run tons/year % tons/year %

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Pathway 1, current land use 54,7 2 253

Change from pathway 1

Remeandering 0,00 0.00% -3,0 -0.13%

Riparian zones in agriculture land -0.02 0.04% 0,0 0.00%

Stormwater ponds -0.09 -0.16% -1,0 0.04%

Wetlands -0.56 -1.03% -11,5 -0.51%

Table 4 Modeled effect of pathways on nitrogen and phosphorus transport from Helgeå.

Phosphorus Nitrogen

Run tons/year % tons/year %

Baseline, current land use 57,2 2 374

Change from baseline

Future land use -0,38 -0.7% -40,5 -1.7%

Future climate (Pathway 1) -2,43 -4.3% -121,0 -5.1%

Change from Pathway 1

Pathway 2 -0,63 -1.1% -14,5 -0.6%

Pathway 3 -0,13 -0.2% -4,5 -0.2%

The above tables show long term mean nitrogen and phosphorus transport from Helgeå under

future climate and a change in the transport due to the Pathway 2 measures modeled

individually with HYPE. Wetlands contribute to the largest portion of the nutrients removed in

Pathway 2. When the impact of wetlands was simulated without the other measures from

Pathway 2, 1,0% and 0,51% of nitrogen and phosphorus transport, respectively, was removed

compared to 1,1% and 0,6% removed when all measures in Pathway 2 were simulated.

3.3 Reda

Pathway 1 – Business as usual

The business as usual pathway included the measures resulting from “The National Programme

for Construction of Urban Wastewater Treatment Plants” [RBMP 2016] and “The River basin

management plans (2016-2021)” [RBMP 2016] including currently implemented measures and

measures that have already been decided in previous plans even if they are not yet

implemented.

Area based measures targeted at diffuse pollution from agriculture are identical to the agri-

environmental measures in the local regulations and results of research co-financed by the

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European Union within the framework of Technical Assistance for the Rural Development

Program 2007-2013 [Wyniki…, 2014]. In this pathway, the recommendations of the Code of

Good Agricultural Practices regarding the buffer zones were also taken into account.

WRF climate change scenarios

Projected climate change in WRF climate scenarios resulted in a reduced concentration of N and

P in the Reda catchment on average by 4.0 % and 7.7 %, respectively.

Figure 32 Total-N concentrations simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where the climate change scenario WRF was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.

Figure 33 Total-P simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios WRF was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.

RCA climate change scenarios

Projected climate change in RCA climate scenarios results in a reduced concentration of N and P

in the Reda catchment on average by 9,2 % and 12,8 %, respectively compared to the baseline

period.

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Figure 34 Total-N simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios RCA was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.

Figure 35 Total-P simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios RCA was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.

Pathway 2 – Focus on Urban Areas (Increase of retention in urban area)

The measures proposed in this pathway resulted from discussions at the 2nd and 3rd stakeholder

workshops and were focused on limiting the peak flow in the Reda river with measures

implemented in urban areas. In this pathway new reservoirs were modelled in three sub-basins

(6, 7 and 9). The results indicated that those measures could indeed contribute to reduce the

magnitude of flow peaks from all the three sub-basins (Figure 36 to Figure 38). Furthermore, the

results suggested that they may have an important effect also in a future changed climate

(Figure 39 to Figure 41).

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Figure 36 The effect of increasing the amount of retention magazines in urban areas on the discharge from Reda sub-basin 6.

Figure 37 Effect of increasing the amount of retention magazines in urban areas on the discharge from Reda sub-

basin 7.

Figure 38 Effect of increasing the amount of retention magazines in urban areas on the discharge from Reda sub-

basin 9.

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RCA-6

Figure 39 Effect of an increased amount of small urban retention reservoirs on discharge from the Reda sub-basin 6 for the time horizon 2015-2045 and the climate change scenario RCA.

RCA-7

Figure 40 Effect of an increased amount of small urban retention reservoirs on the discharge from the Reda sub-

bains 7 for the horizon 2015-2045 and the climate change scenario RCA.

RCA-9

Figure 41 Effect of an increased amount of small urban retention reservoirs on the discharge from the Reda sub-

basin 9 for the horizon 2015-2045 and the climate change scenario RCA.

Pathway 3 – Focus on Rural Areas

Due to the low consumption of mineral fertilizers in the Reda catchment, a pathway where the

double dose of fertilizers would be used was considered. According to data from the Local Data

Bank (official data base Central Statistical Office of Poland), the mean consumption of mineral

fertilizers in terms of pure ingredient per hectare of agricultural land in the Pomeranian Voivodeship

equals 74.8 kg N/ha and 18.3 kg P/ha in 2015, which is more than 13 % lower than the average for

the Pomeranian Voivodeship (Deliverable 2.3). The modelled effect of this increase was that the

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concentration of N and P discharged from the Reda catchment would increase by 6% and 1.8%,

respectively, compared to the baseline period.


The projected climate change in the WRF climate scenario, indicated a further reduce of the

concentration of total N and total P in the Reda catchment up to 4,9 % and 2,8 %, respectively.


When using the RCA climate scenarios instead, the results indicated a further reduce of nutrient

concentration, up to 11 % for total N and 8 % for total P.

Figure 42 Simulated concentrations of Total-N simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the time horizon 2006-2045 using the climate change scenario RCA 8.5. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.

Figure 43 Simulated Total-P concentrations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the time horizon 2006-2045 using the climate change scenario RCA 8.5. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.

Pathway 4 – Agro-Environmental Measures

Measures in pathway 4 are focused on limiting the load of nitrogen and phosphorus from the

Reda catchment. Permanent grasslands, located in the immediate vicinity of surface waters,

have protective functions and form a kind of buffer zones between arable land and waters.

Buffer zone – 1st solution: It was assumed that 90% of the length of the Reda River

would have a buffer zone, which would reduce the overland flow transport of

phosphorus by 90 % compared to the baseline period.

The result from modelling buffer zones was a reduced concentration of phosphorus at the

outflow of Reda catchment by about 16.3 % compared to the baseline period.

http://stat.gov.pl/en/metainformations/glossary/terms-used-in-official-statistics/2292,term.html

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The projected climate change using the WRF climate scenario may reduce the concentration of

phosphorus at the outflow of the Reda catchment by on average 24.7 % compared to the

baseline period, and the average concentration of TP would be 0.12 mg/l (with pathway 4

effect).

RCA climate change scenarios Projected climate change using the RCA climate scenario may reduce the concentration of phosphorus at the outflow of Reda catchment by on average 12 % compared to the baseline period, and the average concentration of P would be 0.11 mg/l (Figure 45).

Figure 44 Simulations of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 using the climate change scenario RCA 8.5. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l

Buffer zone – 2nd solution: In this version of the pathway, it was assumed that 70% of

the length of the Reda River would have a buffer zone, and that 80 % of the overland

flow transport of phosphorus would be retained in the buffer zone compared to the

baseline period.

The result of modelling of buffer zones showed a reduced concentration of phosphorus at the

outflow of Reda catchment by about 10% compared to the baseline period.

Land use change - Greening

This measure included a 10 % increase of the forest area in three sub-basins, i.e. that 10 % of

the agricultural land would be replaced by forest. The results indicated that this would decrease

the concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus with about 1.6% and 3.5%, respectively.

Increasing the forest area resulted in a decrease in surface runoff at about 2.0% in compared to

the baseline scenario.


Projected climate change in the WRF climate scenarios may result in a reduced of concentration

of nitrogen and phosphorus in the outflow of the Reda catchment with an average 4.2 % and

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8.4 % respectively compared to the baseline scenario. Average concentration of nitrogen and

phosphorus is 1.6 mg/l and 0.13 mg/l.


Projected climate change in RCA climate scenarios may result in a reduced concentration of

nitrogen and phosphorus in the outflow of the Reda catchment with an average 9.1 % and

13.3 % respectively compared to the baseline scenario. Average concentration of nitrogen and

phosphorus is 1.5 mg/l and 0.12 mg/l.

Figure 45 Total-N simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios RCA 8.5 was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.

Figure 46 Total-P simulations at the outlet of the Reda catchment for the horizon 2006-2045 where climate change scenarios RCA 8.5 was considered. Y-axel shows concentrations mg/l.

Waste water infrastructure

All users are connected to the sewage system and sewage is discharged outside the Reda

catchment.

There was a slight decrease of concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus in the outflow of Reda

catchment at 1.3% and 2.5% respectively in comparison to the baseline scenario.


Projected climate change in WRF climate scenarios may decrease concentration of nitrogen and

phosphorus in the outflow of Reda catchment with an average at 4.0 % and 7.6 % respectively if

compared to the baseline scenario.

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Projected climate change in RCA climate scenarios may decrease concentration of nitrogen and

phosphorus in the outflow of Reda catchment with an average at 9.0 % and 12.5 % respectively

if compared to the baseline scenario.



Pathway 5 – Mixture of Agro-Environmental actions

Measures modeled in pathway 5 are a combination of actions regarding buffer zones and

augmentation of forest areas by 10 %. The combination of actions resulted in a decrease of

concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in the outflow of Reda catchment at about 1.6% and

18.8%, respectively.


Projected climate change in WRF climate scenarios may decrease concentration of nitrogen and

phosphorus in the outflow of Reda catchment with an average at 4.2 % and 7.8 % respectively if

compared to the baseline scenario. On the other hand average concentration of nitrogen and

phosphorus is 1.6 mg/l and 0.11 mg/l, respectively.

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Projected climate change in RCA climate scenarios may decrease concentration of nitrogen and

phosphorus in the outflow of Reda catchment with an average at 9.1 % and 12.5 % respectively

if compared to the baseline scenario. On the other hand average concentration of nitrogen and

phosphorus is 1.5 mg/l and 0.11 mg/l, respectively.




Results of Modeling show a decrease in the average concentrations for both total nitrogen and

total phosphorus when the measures suggested are implemented as summarized in Table 5.

Table 5 Comparison of the modeling results on total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations and loads for

the baseline scenario and measures implemented (Reda catchment)

Pathways Total Nitrogen Total Phosphorus

mg L-1 Load, kg/year Load change, % mg L-1 Load, kg/year Load change, %

Baseline 1.6794 270318

0.1446 23271

Ferilizers dose x2 1.7859 287460 6.0 0.1472 23696 1.8

Waste water infrastructure 1.6584 266617 -1.4 0.1411 22690 -2.6

Buffer zone (0.9/0.1) not applicable 0.1243 20012 -16.3

Buffer zone (0.7/0.2) not applicable 0.1312 21122 -10.2

Greening 1.6537 263235 -2.7 0.1397 22235 -4.7

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Mixture of AE Measures 1.6537 263241 -2.7 0.1217 19375 -20.1



mg L-1 Load, kg/year Load change, % mg L-1 Load, kg/year Load change, %

Baseline 1.5386 303420 10.9 0.1282 25276 7.9


Waste water infrastructure 1.521 299665 11.0 0.1254 24700 8.1

Buffer zone (0.9/0.1) not applicable 0.1111 21904 8.6


Greening 1.5161 296096 11.1 0.1233 24072 7.6

Mixture of AE Measures 1.5161 296104 11.1 0.1082 21130 8.3



mg L-1 Load, kg/year Load change, % mg L-1 Load, kg/year Load change ,%

Baseline 1.6141 297983 9.3 0.1342 24769 6.0


Waste water infrastructure 1.5951 294164 9.4 0.1311 24186 6.2



Greening 1.5875 290431 9.4 0.1289 23587 5.7

Mixture of AE Measures 1.5875 290436 9.4 0.1129 20662 6.2

3.4 Selke


Following the successive discussion with the Stakeholders over the course of the project,

conflicts of interests between stakeholder groups have been highlighted (landscape restoration,

agricultural sectors of the upstream and downstream parts of the Selke catchment, wastewater

sectors etc.) and a lack of cooperation between sectors and groups. Also, conflicts between

different administrative policy levels (e.g., in terms of different objectives and different

interpretation of rules) has been indicated as key barriers to improve the effectiveness of

measures, and it was a key subject of intense discussions prior to the 3rd workshop. The

pathways explore to what extent alternative governance configurations (e.g., with respect to

development, implementation and management of measures, the roles of different

stakeholders and possibilities to finance measures outside the rigid existing policy frameworks)

can address those issues and result in improved effectiveness.

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A summary of the updated modelling results of the Selke case study after the revision of the 3rd

workshop is given below.

Table 6 Summary of modelling results regarding the impact on loads of inorganic nitrogen (IN) and total

phosphorus (TP) from the agricultural measures suggested by stakeholders in the Selke case area after the 3rd

workshop.

Measures IN

(mg/l)

Q

(m3/s)

Load

(kg/d)

Annual load

(Kg/ha/y)

Reduction

(%)

TP

(mg/l)

Q

(m3/s)

Load

(kg/d)

Annual load

(Kg/ha/y)

Reduction

(%)

Baseline

simulations

(2005-2014)

3.87 1.78 596.73 8.98 -

0.12 1.78 18.79 0.28 -

Buffer strips

(10m) - - - - -

0.11 1.78 16.90 0.25 10.1

Buffer strips

(20m) - - - - -

0.10 1.78 16.52 0.24 12.1

Contour

ploughing - - - - -

0.11 1.78 17.49 0.26 6.9

Reduced tillage - - - - -

0.10 1.78 16.46 0.24 12.4

20% reduction

of N mineral

fertilizer

3.63 1.78 558.99 8.42 6.3

- - - - -

Joint

implementation

(10m)

3.60 1.78 554.73 8.35 7.0

0.09 1.78 13.91 0.21 26.0

Joint

implementation

(20m)

3.60 1.78 554.68 8.35 7.0

0.08 1.78 13.81 0.20 26.5

The HYPE model inputs files, as well as the model parameters file, were adjusted for a better

implementation of the different measures suggested in the model, to be able to evaluate their

effects compared to the baseline load simulations. First, the results of the baseline simulations

of Inorganic nitrogen concentrations (IN), Soluble Phosphorus (SP) and Total Phosphorus (TP)

were given. Second, the modelling results of the different given effects were reported. Results

showed that 20% reduction of N fertilizer application would reduce the nitrogen loads by 7%

compared to the baseline simulations. In terms of annual nitrogen loads per hectare of land, this

equals a reduction to about 8.4 from 9.0 Kg/ha/y (Table 6). For phosphorus, the joint

implementation of all measures in Pathways 2 and 3, with 20m wide buffer strips would reduce

the loads by about 26%. The model results indicated that a combination of different measures

(called “joint implementation” for the Selke case study) offered the best results regarding

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mitigation of nutrient emissions to the Selke river. In addition, the suggestion to consider an

expanded connection of households to the wastewater networks is very important to reduce

the nutrient loads at the Selke basin.

Climate change impacts on the Selke case study considering the business as usual

Figure 51 Predicted discharge simulations at the outlet of the Selke catchment (Hausneindorf) for the horizon

2005-2045 where climate change scenarios RCP8.5 was considered.

Figure 52 Predicted Nitrate-N concentration simulations at the outlet of the Selke catchment (Hausneindorf) for

the horizon 2005-2045 where climate change scenarios RCP8.5 was considered.

Figure 53 Predicted Soluble-P (a) and Total-P (b) concentration simulations at the outlet of the Selke catchment

(Hausneindorf) for the horizon 2005-2045 where climate change scenarios RCP8.5 was considered. Results

presented in ug/l.

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The results regarding impact of climate change indicated that by 2045 the winter discharge

would increase due to the climate change effects (Figure 51). The increased discharge will lead

to a decrease in Nitrate-N concentrations in the watercourse due to the dilution effects

resulting from the increasing surface runoff (Figure 52). However, the increase of winter

discharge will augment soil erosion due to the increased erosive force of the raindrops and the

concentrated discharge in preferential pathways, which in turn will increase phosphorus

concentrations (mainly through particulate phosphorus) (Figure 53).

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Mitigation of climate change impacts using appropriate mitigation measures

Reduced tillage

Contour ploughing

Figure 54 Results of how much the reduced tillage measure (a and b), and the contour ploughing measure (c and

d) can mitigate climate change effects on soluble P (SP) and total P (TP) loads in the Selke catchment under

pathway 2 and pathway 3.

Results showed that the application of each suggested measure separately (e.g., reduced tillage

or contour ploughing) cannot mitigate the climate change effects (Figure 54). However, when

pathway 2 (one agricultural measure) is implemented together with pathway 3 (15% of the

TP : Baseline 129.76Pathway 2 (132.02)Pathway 3 (91.20)

SP : Baseline 88.97Pathway 2 (88.13)Pathway 3 (51.44)

(a)

(b)

TP : Baseline 129.76Pathway 2 (138.48)Pathway 3 (97.68)

(c)

(d)

SP : Baseline 88.97Pathway 2 (89.64)Pathway 3 (95)

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“originally” not connected households would be connected to the sewage system in the future)

the climate change effect can be well mitigated.

4 Conclusions

During the workshops the group of stakeholders indicated that there is a great need to exchange knowledge and experience between researchers and stakeholders. Modellers had a possibility to verify modelling results, input data and initial parameters of the HYPE model (e.g. amount of fertilizer used and width and scope of buffer strips). The main problems in each of catchment are described below.

One of the main problems in the Berze catchment is the high usage of mineral fertilizers. As a result, most of the measures suggested in this catchment concerned ways of reducing nutrient leaching from the soil.

One problem that was raised during the workshop in Helgea catchment was that the Water

Authority was criticized for limited engagement with actors and representatives at the local

level. Moreover, several stakeholders noted that the massive historical transformation of the

landscape (flow regulation and drainage) and the emergence of new ecosystems (such as

grasslands and pastures) have not been taken into account in the identification of measures.

The model results indicated that the predicted decrease in future nitrogen and phosphorus

loads to the Baltic Sea from the Helgea catchment due to climate change will be larger than the

modelled decrease due to implementation of the suggested pathways to change in the

catchment.

The main problem in the Reda catchment is flood hazards. The river is characterized by high water levels in the winter season and early spring. The modelling results showed that building a substantial amount of retention ponds in the urban sub-catchments (small urban retention ponds) may reduce the magnitude of the flow peaks.

For the Selke case study, the results showed that a combination of measures is essential to mitigate climate change effects on nutrient loads. However, applying each of the suggested measure separately would contribute to mitigate the expected the effect of climate change, however, cannot remove it completely.

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5 Literature

Berze

Jacob, D. et al., 2013, EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for

European impact research, Regional Environmental change, doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2

Reda

Deliverable 2.3, 2018, Report and data set on scenario modelling of measures suggested by

stakeholders to reduce flooding, eutrophication, enhance biodiversity and contribute to other

goals, as well as climate change scenarios.

RBMP, 2016, “The River basin management plans (2016-2021)”.

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/participation/map_mc/countries/poland_en.htm

Wyniki, 2014, Wyniki Porejestrowych Doświadczeń Odmianowych i Rolniczych w województwie

pomorskim. ZBOŻA, RZEPAK, BOBOWATE, OKOPOWE, 2014. (In Polish)

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/participation/map_mc/countries/poland_en.htm

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Appendix 1

Climate analyses in the Reda catchment - methodology

Climate analyses were based at on data from 5 weather stations: Lebork (synoptic station, S-II),

Gdynia (climate station, C-III), Wejherowo, Rebiska and Tepcz (precipitation station, P-V). Only

Wejherowo and Tepcz are located within the Reda basin. Others are within a distance: Gdynia –

14 km east, Rebiska - 2 km southeast, Lebork - 17,5 km west from the watershed.

Within a distance of 11km from the basin 5 additional precipitation stations are located. These

were not taken under consideration in the analyses, because precipitation is conditioned locally

and its interpolation could result in misconception of precipitation in the basin area. In the Reda

team opinion, included weather stations reflect a spatial distribution of precipitation, as they

are located in specific Reda basin landforms. Although the Gdynia station is located around 14

km from the basin, but it was included in the analysis because in the best way it reflects the

pluvial conditions in the Reda estuary.

The Reda basin climatic characteristics - Temperature

Annual mean temperature oscillations at Gdynia station in the period 1967-2016 was 3,4°C.

A seasonal average temperature for months XII-II at Gdynia and Lebork was 0,7°C and -0,2°C,

respectively; for III-V: 6,8°C and 5,5°C, VI-VIII: 17,0°C and 12,5°C and IX-XI was 9,6°C and 8,6°C.

The biggest amplitude was specific for winter months. In the period 1967-2016 monthly

amplitude in winter reached 7,6°C at Gdynia and 7,8°C at Lebork. In spring, summer and

autumn months the amplitude reached value 5,1°C; 3,5°C; 5,2°C respectively at Gdynia and

5,1°C, 4,6 °C , 5,1°C respectively at Lebork.

Variability of monthly maximum, minimum and average temperature (1967-2017) and (2004-2014)

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Station 1967-2016 2004-2014

Gd

ynia

Lęb

ork

Figure 55 Variability of monthly maximum, minimum and mean temperature (1967-2017) and (2004-2014) at

Gdynia and Lebork. Days with maximum temperature (Tmax) over or equal to 30°C at Gdynia occurred during 19

years in 50-years period. In 1962 and 1992 its number was the highest – 3 days per year. At Lebork those days

happened more often – each year of period beside five of them: 1967, 1980, 1987, 2004 and 2008. The highest

number occurred in 1994 (15 days) and in 2010 (10 days).

The Reda basin climatic characteristic – Precipitation

Annual average rainfall at Wejherowo, Tepcz, Rebiska, Gdynia stations in the period 1967-2016

reached values between 156,7 mm and 1199,2 mm.

Station Variability of long-term (1967-2016 and 2004-2014)

monthly rainfall

Wej

her

ow

o

Tep

cz

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Reb

iska

Gd

ynia

Figure 56 Variability of long-term (1967-2016 / 2004-2014) monthly average rainfall at Wejherowo, Tepcz,

Rebiska and Gdynia.

Documents

MIRACLEAuthors: Magdalena Skonieczna, Tomasz Walczykiewicz, Łukasz Woźniak, Ewa Jakusik, Alena Bartosova, René Capell, Seifeddine Jomaa, Ainis Lagzdiņš, Arturs Veinbergs The BONUS