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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. 版权所有。
The Slowdown and the StimulusChina Demand Outlook
AUTOMOTIVE
Lin Huaibin, Manager, China Light Vehicles Sales Forecast+86 21 2422 9061, [email protected]
27 October 2016 | Shanghai
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.60
Chinese GDP growthSlowing down gradually over years, not collapsing overnightGDP development 2006–16
© 2016 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Perc
ent c
hang
e
GDP Growth2016: 6.6%2017: 6.2%2018: 6.4%
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
How much payback should we expect in 2017?
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
<1.6L >1.6L
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Total industry volume
• Vehicle Purchase Tax cut from 10% to 5% for vehicles (1.6L and below) in October 2015–December 2016
• Improving GDP growth of 6.6% in 2016
17.0 17.618.6
21.423.1
24.426.0 26.2 27.0
28.329.7
30.7 31.6 32.3
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Mill
ion
s
• GDP growth to trough out from 2018 with an average growth of 6.4% in 2018–20
• Supported by replacement demand coming from scrappage of vehicles (Euro I and below) in 2014–17
• The government could usher in vehicle demand management because of rising energy security concerns
• Termination of tax incentives
• GDP growth rate of 6.2% in 2017
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
When will the JV share cap be lifted in the auto industry?
724 727 835
1,083
950
1,147 1,240 1,211
1,239 1,285 1,356
123 212
265
559 565
688 747
878
1,010
1,231
1,457
17%
93%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
FDI inflow FDI outflow Outflow as % of inflowUnit: 100 million USD
Sources: UNCTAD; ( ) refers to Outward Investment Ranking by Country. China excl. Hongkong and Taiwan
2005-2013 CAGR:28%
344 7619 19 18 12 23
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
The day of JV share cap to be numbered
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.65
Body types diversitySUV sales keep expanding over proportionally in the long term
13%
47%15%
11%10%36%
34%
13%
9%
4%
SUV HatchbackSedan WagonMPV CoupeConvertible Roadster
38%
44%
3%7%4%
45%
39%
8%3%
3%
SUV SedanHatchback MPVCoupe WagonConvertible Roadster
12%
65%
18%
5%
44%
39%
8%8%
1%
SUV SedanHatchback MPVWagon CoupeConvertible
2010
China North America Europe
2010 2010
2025 2025 2025
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
IQS between domestic and international OEMs narrowed again in 2016…
396
142 153191 185 190 179
139 145 116 89 101 9551 36 22 14 0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018
GAP Chinese OEMs IQS International OEMs IQS
66
Source: JD Power
Unit: Problems per 100 Vehicles
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Would the Chinese OEMs’ share continue to rise?
67
2.32.4
2.73.1
3.2
2.92.6
2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1
30.6%
27.5%
26.7%26.6%
25.2%
30.5%
33.2%31.3% 31.6% 31.8% 32.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mill
ion
s
Sales of JV cars based on old platform Chinese OEMs market share (as % of PV)
Citroen C-Elysee Hyundai Elantra VW Lavida Chevrolet Cruze Classic
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
IHS definitions of China city tiersTIER-1 TIER-1.5 TIER-2 TIER-3 TIER-4 TIER-5 TIER-6
Major Cities Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen
Tianjin, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Suzhou
Changsha, Dongguan,Foshan, Qingdao
Changzhou, Changchun, Harbin, Shijiazhuang
Guiyang, Lanzhou, Luoyang, Handan
Anqing, Changde, Datong, Guilin
Aksu, Baiyin, Garzee, Puer
Number of Cities (%) 4 Cities (1.2%) 7 Cities (2.1%) 11 Cities (3.2%) 37 Cities (10.8%) 30 Cities (8.8%) 87 Cities (25.5%) 165 Cities (48.4%)
Location Core area of major economic zones
Key cities in coastal or central China
Important cities in coastal or central China
Important cities in coastal or central China
Most cities in Centraland West China
Most cities in West and Central China
Most cities in West and Central China
Total Population
70.7 million (6.5%) 98.8 million (9.0%) 72 million (6.6%) 177.4 million (16.2%) 98.3 million (9.0%) 278.6 million (25.5%)
295.7 million (27.1%)
GDP (%) 8,354 billion yuan (11.8%)
8,824 billion yuan(12.5%)
8,286 billion yuan(11.7%)
14,764 billion yuan(20.8%)
7,855 billion yuan(11.1%)
12,754 billion yuan (18.0%)
10,039 billion yuan (14.2%)
GDP per Capita (average)
125,000 renminbi 99,000 renminbi 90,000 renminbi 64,000 renminbi 45,000 renminbi 42,000 renminbi 28,000 renminbi
2015 PVSALES
1.2 million (6.4%) 2.2 million (11.8%) 2.5 million (13.3%) 4.5 million (23.8%) 2.1 million (11.2%) 3.4 million (17.9%) 3.0 million (15.7%)
68
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.69
Economy vs. car sales: City tier developmentTier 4–Tier 6 cities market shares increase with Tier 1 share declining
T113%
T1.513%
T213%
T324%
T410%
T515%
T612%
T16%
T1.512%
T213%
T324%
T411%
T518%
T616%
T112%
T1.512%
T212%
T321%
T411%
T518%
T614%
T112%
T1.512%
T212%
T321%
T411%
T518%
T614%
2010
GDP share by city tier 2010–15
2010
2015
2015
PV market share by city tier 2010–15
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.70
Are Tier 4-6 cities the new El Dorado?
T14% T1.5
8%
T29%
T321%
T412%
T524%
T622%
Where are the +11k new dealers? Q2 2016 vs 2013
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
T1 T1.5 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6
2015 dealer share Y2015 sales share
City tier dealer share vs. city tier sales share
T4-T6:58%
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.71
Dealer throughput 2013–15: Profitability pressure not only for dealers but ultimately for OEMs/suppliers
872
1,230
1,048
925 908
813846
929
636
942 923
773733
654 662746
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
T1 T1.5 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 National
778 784 773 771
660 656
719
812
874921
945
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US dealer throughput 2005–15China dealer throughput 2013–15 by city tier
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
New OEM entrances and brand expansionNew entrants from other industries drive brand expansion
Existing small OEMs
Mega tech companies
New OEMs
Sharing economy
Brand number
2000 2010 2015 2025
25 62 78 94
Premium brands 234 2019
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
354
915
435 463 448
233282
463
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
United… China Japan Germany France India Brazil Russia
73
Product nameplates for sales OEMs moving to emerging market quickly to gain customersNumber of nameplates 2006–23
© 2016 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.74
Economics of pepper
-1.03.4
5.76.66.66.76.76.76.7
7.17.27.27.37.47.57.67.77.87.98.08.08.18.28.28.38.3
8.69.19.2
10.510.610.6
-2 3 8
Liaoning
Heilongjiang
Yunnan
Beijing
Jilin
Guangxi
Shandong
Sichuan
Zhejiang
Ningxia
Xinjiang
Jiangsu
Fujian
Anhui
Tianjin
Chongqing
GDP growth by province H1 2016(%)
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.75
Car sales by provinces: Is pepper still hot?
23%18%
17%16%
16%15%
13%13%
13%13%
10%10%10%9%
9%9%
8%8%
8%7%
7%6%
6%5%
5%3%
3%2%2%
1%1%
0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
GUIZHOU
GUANGDONG
TIBET
ANHUI
GUANGXI
BEIJING
YUNNAN
JIANGSU
National
CHONGQING
INNER MONGOLIA
ZHEJIANG
FUJIAN
HEBEI
NINGXIA
SHANXI
2016 YTD PV sales y/y (%)
55%
45%
As % of national total
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
0123456789
1011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Electric Plug-in hybrid Full hybrid Mild hybrid
76
NEV development in ChinaEV demand is exploding in the near future; hybrid as main driver in the long termEV/hybrid PV production in China
© 2016 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
Mill
ions
48V system will be the first priority option in the mild
hybrid sector
EV might NOT be market dominator despite strong
stimulus policy today
Inception period Development period
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Car sharing growing rapidly but business models challenged with lack of profitability
With Drivers
In Chongqing from Apr 2016 with 400 cars
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
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Is car sharing becoming a real threat to vehicle demand?: What P2P tells us
92%
8%
No. of models by brand positioning
Mass Luxury
71%29%
No. of models by car age
>=3 yrs <3 yrs
84%
5%11%
No. of models by body type
Sedan MPV SUV
Source: AT Zuche,PP Zuche as of Sept 2016
Total No of cars:+17kCities Covered: 22
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
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Car sharing, or really?
Automotive Conference – Shanghai | October 2016
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