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Mobile Mini: Securing the Indonesian Construction Industry Prepared by: Marcos Da Silva, John Grayson, George Phillips, Rex Smith, Andrew Steuer Prepared for: Professor Pentz Professor Kehoe April 21, 2015

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Page 1: B8G2 - Mobile Mini should secure Indonesian construction - April 21, 2015 (1)

Mobile Mini: Securing the Indonesian Construction Industry

Prepared by: Marcos Da Silva, John Grayson,

George Phillips, Rex Smith,Andrew Steuer

Prepared for:Professor Pentz

Professor Kehoe

April 21, 2015

Page 2: B8G2 - Mobile Mini should secure Indonesian construction - April 21, 2015 (1)

2

Forward-looking statements

This presentation deck was created by students at the McIntire School of Commerce at the University of Virginia as a part of the COMM 3050: Entry Strategies in Emerging Markets component of the Integrated Core Experience (ICE). Statements made throughout the deck are for educational purposes only and do not represent the views of McIntire, the University of Virginia, or Mobile Mini, Inc. Block 8 Group 2 has performed diligent research when preparing this deck, but the assumptions made during the project period may not represent reality accurately. As such, readers of this report should view our claims with caution and consider the statements as for educational purposes only.

Certain statements in this report constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and are intended to be covered byt the safe harbors created by that Act. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Block 8 Group 2 undertakes no obligation and does not intend to publicly update these forward-looking statements.

Cover Photo Source: http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/indonesia-welcomes-closer-business-ties-singapore

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Executive Summary

Mobile Mini should leverage its financial health and widely useable products to create what would turn out to be an extremely attractive market for temporary construction storage solutions inside Indonesia.

By establishing itself as the government’s partner, Mobile Mini will be able to take part in the massive program of infrastructure development that the country is about to begin.

The Indonesian infrastructure construction industry is currently valued at around $100 billion and is expected to grow at a 12-15% rate annually over the next five years by Business Monitor International.

Source: https://www.mobilemini.com/files/images/mobile-mini-and-pods-containers.jpgSource: http://www.mapsofworld.com/flags/images/indonesia-flag.gifSource: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uNMzwsYako0/Ud4Tg6egIuI/AAAAAAAAAR0/ugDTNkZEKyw/s1600/TC5610_02.jpg

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Executive Summary (continued)

Mobile Mini’s marketing mix will position it successfully in the Indonesian market by delivering rebranded, stripped-down units at a market-penetrating price directly to customers by sea from a distribution facility in Jakarta.

After two years, should cash flow goals of over $1 million be reached, Mobile Mini will continue to expand its Jakarta HQ with an Indonesian manufacturing facility. This facility will leverage the massive Indonesian labor market and allow Mobile Mini to start offering its value-added products to Indonesian customers.

Expansion into Indonesia yields an NPV of $7.2 million for Mobile Mini using a standard 15% hurdle rate. Sensitivity analysis reveals that these projections are heavily dependent on the initial investment on fixed assets and the long term growth rate.

Source: www.mobilemini.comSource: www.glassdoor.com/mobileminiSource: http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/indonesia_adm_98.jpg

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Table of contentsForward-looking statements 1

Executive Summary 2-3

Outline of main arguments 5

Mobile Mini company background and financial success 6-9

Why Indonesia is an attractive market for Mobile Mini 10-15

Mobile Mini’s business plan for entering Indonesia 16-23

Net Present Value shows attractiveness of investment 24-25

Goals, risks, and exit metrics for Mobile Mini 26-28

Future opportunities 29

Appendices 30-36

Endnotes 37

Works Consulted 38-40

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Mobile Mini should supply the Indonesian construction industry with temporary storage solutions

• Supportive free trade agreements and significant infrastructure spending make Indonesia the right choice for Mobile Mini.

Why Indonesia

• Despite the large amount of spending on construction, the portable storage industry does not exist in Indonesia, creating a potential first-mover advantage for Mobile Mini.

Attractiveness of the market

• A direct investment and aggressive marketing in Indonesia will allow Mobile Mini to penetrate the market and demonstrate the usefulness of the product.

Business model

• Successful adoption of the product in Indonesia can open the door for other developing SE Asian countries to also use Mobile Mini to secure booming construction industries.

Future considerations

6

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7

An introduction to Mobile Mini

What we do

Provide customized and affordable portable storage solutions for

businesses, construction sites, and residential customers1

Where we are

213,500+ portable storage units offered at 136 locations across the

U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom2

Construction42%

Industrials22%

Governments4%

Other9%

Our key to success

Focus on leasing units, which provides predictable and

recurring revenues for long-lived assets with low maintenance

costs3

Consumer service/retail 23%

Our customers by type:

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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8

Increased efficiency indicates Mobile Mini is ready to expand into emerging markets

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Lease Revenues ($M) Lease Fleet Utilization Rate (%)

Higher lease fleet utilization rate4

Higher margins and reduced capital expenditures

More freedom to expand both in developed and emerging markets

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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928 consecutive quarters of positive free cash flows allow Mobile Mini to choose the best growth method

• Purchased Evergreen Tank Solutions in 2014 for $405 million in cash

Acquiring new companies

• Returned over 50% of FCFs to shareholders in 2014 in the form of a $175 million stock repurchase program and a $31 million cash dividend5

Increasing shareholder value

• Increased its current credit facility to $1 billion at the end of 2014

Servicing existing debt…Or entering an emerging market like Indonesia

Potential uses of cash include:

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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10Current credit agreement gives Mobile Mini the flexibility to expand into emerging markets like Indonesia

• $1 billion revolving credit facility gives the company significant cash to make strategic acquisitions in both existing and new markets

• Cash flows from operations can be supplemented by this line of credit to increase efficiencies within the business

• As written in the agreement, an increase in the value of the lease fleet will increase the amount that the company can borrow

• Significant debt requires sizeable

interest payments • Debt covenants imposed by

lenders may restrict certain transactions

• Changes in global credit markets may make Mobile Mini’s current agreement become less valuable

Bottom line: increasing its debt capabilities will allow Mobile Mini to take advantage of significant profit opportunities in emerging markets6

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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11Mobile Mini must shape its strategy around Indonesia’s weak rule of law and lack of infrastructure

Mobile Mini can emphasize the security of its units to appeal to companies operating in an environment with relatively weak rule of law7

• The police force lacks the size and training to effectively police the country’s massive population and vast land mass

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

The lack of infrastructure will present obstacles to Mobile Mini’s business model8

• Mobile Mini will deliver units by water• Mobile Mini will establish itself as the

government’s and the country’s partner in developing its infrastructure

2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F0

20406080

100120140160180200

Valu

e of

infr

astr

uctu

re

cons

truc

tion

indu

stry

The value of the Indonesian construction industry is projected to keep rising as it develops its infrastructure

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12

Mobile Mini can eventually tap into the fourth largest labor market in the world9

Mobile Mini will generate goodwill by alleviating unemployment problem

The current Indonesian labor force contains a large and growing number of people with current and former experience in the construction industry

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Construction

Transporta-tion/Storage

Peop

le e

mpl

oyed

by

sect

or (m

illio

ns)

Employment in the Indonesian construction industry has risen over the years10

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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13Mobile Mini should collaborate with Indonesians to overcome cultural and administrative distance

As can be seen in Appendix I, Indonesian culture differs greatly from the Anglo-American culture of Mobile Mini

• Majority Christian vs. Islamic• English vs. Indonesian• Task-driven vs. relationship-driven11

The Indonesian administrative environment holds different norms than that of the US and Britain

• Weaker Indonesian court system• More corrupt bureaucracy• Lack of effective policing12

The Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) between USA and

Indonesia has boosted trade between nations

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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14Indonesia’s construction industry is very profitable for the temporary storage business

Indonesian Construction

Market ($183B)

48%InfrastructureNon-Residential

Residential

38%14%

These 2012 figures are dwarfed by the most recent 2013 numbers, which show a $267 billion dollar construction industry and a GDP of $868 billion. As you can see in Appendix II, Mobile Mini sales are highly correlated with GDP growth and construction spending. That’s $84 Billion dollars of growth in a single year, surpassing the 4.8% projected annual growth of the industry as a whole, by 41.1%13

2012 Construction Spending $88B$70B$25B

©IHG Global $183B

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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15Crimes in urban areas and weather events create a need for security and shelter

Crime rates in Indonesia:

Highly underreported but still growing; most significant is theft of people and businesses

Centered in high density areas like Jakarta, where policing is difficult and the country’s wealth is located

Creates a business risk for companies without adequate security measures for tools, supplies, and other goods14

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

Extreme weather in Indonesia:

Heavy rainfall and flooding create a need for weather-resistant supply storage

Constructing repairs after typhoons generates demand for short-term storage options15http://blogs.wsj.com/indonesiarealtime/tag/extreme-weather/

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16Mobile Mini could create an attractive industry for providing of temporary construction storage in Indonesia

Government involvement could potentially give buyers

disproportional power

The lack of barriers to entry will ease entry initially but

could create a less attractive industry in the long term

As illustrated in Appendix III, the lack of existing competitors and negligible supplier power will make this new competitive space very

attractive

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

Most importantly, MINI will need to convince customers

that the need for their product exists through a

specialized marketing mix

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17

Mobile Mini’s strategy will need to evolve in the short, medium, and long terms16

Short Term

• Adapt:• Mobile Mini can tailor its marketing mix to adapt to the Indonesian Market

Mid Term

• Arbitrage:• Mobile Mini can maintain market share by staying affordable and reliable

Long Term

• Aggregate:• Eventually Mobile Mini will be able to scale its operations

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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18Mobile Mini’s marketing mix will secure contracts and position it as a necessary and affordable

Penetration

Pricing

Rebranding

Stripped-down units

DirectDelivery

A penetration pricing strategy will entice

potential customers into trying out a new service

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

Rebranding will allow Mobile Mini to more

easily establish itself as a partner to the country

Mobile Mini will offer units on the more basic

end of its product line to maintain its pricing

strategy

Mobile Mini will deliver units directly to the

customer, making use of ports and shipping routes

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19

• Mobile Mini will be headquartered in Jakarta on Indonesia’s most populous island, Java

• Main shipping point will be Port of Jakarta • Mini will use existing highways, airports and

waterways to ship its storage products• As spending improves infrastructure

transportation will be more efficient

A HQ in Java and shipping from Port of Jakarta will put Mini at the epicenter of Indonesian industry

1.

3.

Region Primary Businesses1. Sumatra Production and processing of natural resources and energy reserves

2. Java Driver for national industry and service provision

3. Kalimantan Production and processing of mining and energy reserves

4. Bali-Nusa-Tenggara Gateway for tourism and national food support

5. Papua-Moluccas Development of food, fisheries, energy, and mining17

2.

4.

5.

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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20Penetration pricing will secure market share and allow for higher margins in later stages

Low margins will discourage competitors from entering the market

Low prices will allow potential customers to try the product at low risk and cost to themselves

MINI should be able to lower costs over time, which will increase profit margins while maintaining market share

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Profit Margins will rise as costs are reduced

Cost of Goods Sold (% of Revenue)Profit Margin (%)

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21

Rebranding will help market Mini as a local solution to emerging construction needs

Construction ramps up

Storage problem created

MobileMini Solution

MobileMini Rebrand

SOLUSI PENYIMPANAN UNTUK KONSTRUKSI®

• From Mobile Mini to SolusiPenyimpanan Untuk Kontruksi(Storage Solutions for Construction)

• Reach local construction companies with Indonesian brand through heavy marketing in Phase 1

• Leverage government sponsored public-private partnerships with contractors

Mobile Mini Presence

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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22Mobile Mini should enter with the goal of having a manufacturing facility within Indonesia by early 2018

Company will run a low-risk pilot program in

Phase 1 (starting in 2016) while the manufacturing

plant is being built

The delayed start will allow Mobile Mini to

generate sufficient cash flows to supplement the

eventual investment

Mobile Mini will have time to build up its cash

reserves until 2016 to avoid over leveraging

itself to fund this investment

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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23Phase 1: Ship excess containers from US and lease from distribution facility

MINI will need to purchase a warehouse and create a distribution facility before Phase 1 of the project can commence

Meanwhile, excess cheap temporary storage containers and offices will be shipped from the US

MINI will lease these low-end storage options from distribution facility and directly deliver the product to customers

To take advantage of a localized business model, the sales force should be comprised of Indonesian salesmen

The process model shows the efficient use of excess containers as you can see in Appendix IV.

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

Develop distribution facility and begin construction for manufacturing plant

Purchase warehouse and property for manufacturing and distribution facilities

Ship over excess low-end containers and shipping containers for use in Indonesia

Lease out low-end containers and offices using Indonesian sales force

1

2

3

4

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24Phase 2: Manufacture storage containers in Indonesia for distribution

Mobile Mini should produce the storage containers and temporary offices in their newly built manufacturing plant

This will allow MINI to gain experience manufacturing in Indonesia, and it will allow MINI to eliminate shipping and transportation costs from the US

Taking advantage of the low labor costs and raw materials costs in Indonesia will contribute to even lower costs for the manufactured products

Raw materials will come from suppliers in the region, but these suppliers will need to be screened for trustworthiness and possibly paid a premium to ensure on-time delivery of quality materials

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

Raw materials will be bought from local, trusted suppliers

Containers and offices will be manufactured in the Jakarta plant

Products will be directly delivered, marketed, and sold just as they were in Phase 1

1

2

3

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25NPV of $7.2 million shows attractiveness of investment

Sales are projected to grow exponentially in the early years because of the introduction of the temporary storage market to Indonesia and lack of competitors

Sales will flatten out because of the maximum penetration MINI can achieve in Indonesia

MINI WACC: 9.04%Project WACC: 12.72%Hurdle Rate: 15.00%

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000

Project revenues will grow exponentially in the early years before they flatten out

Year

Reve

nue

($ T

hous

ands

)

Mobile Mini should invest in the project because of the positive NPV of $7.2 million using the 15.00% hurdle rate as you can see in Appendix VI

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26Expenses for fixed assets need to be monitored because of NPV’s high sensitivity to these costs

Fixed asset expenditures will need to be financed through retained earnings, cash, and debt• These values are the initial investment for the project, and the NPV is extremely

sensitive to these values

The project’s NPV is also sensitive to the long term growth rate which should be high due to the growth of Indonesia and the largely untapped Indonesian temporary storage market

(Al l numbers i n $ Thousands)

NPV: $7,562 15,000$ 12,500$ 10,000$ 7,500$ 5,000$ 1.50% 37$ 2,537$ 5,037$ 7,537$ 10,037$ 3.00% 1,426$ 3,926$ 6,426$ 8,926$ 11,426$ 4.00% 2,562$ 5,062$ 7,562$ 10,062$ 12,562$ 5.00% 3,925$ 6,425$ 8,925$ 11,425$ 13,925$ 6.00% 5,591$ 8,091$ 10,591$ 13,091$ 15,591$

Long Term Growth Rate

Fixed Asset Expenditures

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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27Mobile Mini should establish several goals and benchmarks to gauge the progress and success of this project

• Mobile Mini should aim to generate more than $450,000 in revenue during its first year and $1.9 million during its first two years

• Its Indonesian business should generate $5 million in FCF during the first five years in order to recoup 50% of the investment

Cash flow benchmarks

• Mobile Mini should control 90% of the new market

Market share

• Should the company fail to meet these goals, the direct investment should be reconsidered and the company’s Indonesian strategy should be restructured

Reconsideration

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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28Indonesia presents a plethora of risks that Mobile Mini should keep an eye on while doing business—the greatest of these are political18

Politically, the country has a troubled history of military rule, terrorism, and separatism• The country has shown improvements on all these fronts• There has been a rise in parliamentary infighting• High unemployment often precipitates civil unrest

Economically, the country’s poor infrastructure, declining oil production, high unemployment, and political riskiness produce many threats• Currency volatility adds additional risks

Environmentally, the country’s geography as an island nation puts it in danger of natural disasters that can be devastating in human and economic costs• As epitomized by the 2004 tsunami

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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29Payback period and fleet utilization need to be monitored in case of exit

Lease fleet utilization should grow over time• If the utilization rate falls for 3 consecutive

years in MINI’s Indonesian operations, an exit should be made

Payback period should be no more than 5 years total

Indonesian construction industry must continue to expand

• If the compounded five year expansion rate becomes negative, MINI should reduce investment and consider exiting

Costs of new fixed assets (manufacturing plant, distribution facility) should not exceed revenues from the first five years of the project combined

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Cumulative revenues should exceed initial fixed asset costs by year 4 of

the project

Fixed Asset CostsCumulative Revenues

Year

Reve

nues

($ T

hous

ands

)

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30After entering Indonesia, several SE Asian countries present promising opportunities for Mobile Mini to capture the market

#1: Australia• Temporary storage industry already exists, so

there’s no need to create the industry from scratch• Most similar to the U.S. in terms of culture

#2: Philippines • Large increase in infrastructure investment,

especially in the private sector• 6.9% GDP growth expected in 201519

#3: Malaysia• Current government has implemented a significant

wave of state-backed infrastructure projects20

• An estimated 1 million new residential units will be required by 2020, creating a market for profitable residential customers21

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market Business Model Future

Considerations

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31

Appendices

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32Appendix I: CAGE Framework reveals moderate distance to overcome for Mobile Mini

Predominantly Christian cultures vs. Islamic Culture

Language barriers present significant challenges

Relationship-driven vs. task-driven business cultures

Political corruption could hamper contract enforcement

Newly elected President Jokowi has been encouraging foreign investment and free trade22

Indonesia is over 9,000 miles away from United States

Pacific Ocean provides shipping route

The Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) between USA and Indonesia has boosted trade between nations23

CAGE

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market

Future Considerations

Business ModelAppendices:

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33Appendix II: Quantitative Analysis shows the high correlation between Mobile Mini US sales and US GDP24

YearMobile Mini Sales ($Thousands)

US GDP (1 Year Lag) ($Thousands)

2003 $ 146,568 $ 10,977,500,000 2004 $ 168,340 $ 11,510,700,000 2005 $ 207,170 $ 12,274,900,000 2006 $ 273,363 $ 13,093,700,000 2007 $ 318,302 $ 13,855,900,000 2008 $ 415,404 $ 14,477,600,000 2009 $ 374,461 $ 14,718,600,000 2010 $ 330,757 $ 14,418,700,000 2011 $ 364,428 $ 14,964,400,000 2012 $ 379,896 $ 15,517,900,000 2013 $ 406,486 $ 16,163,200,000 2014 $ 445,474 $ 16,768,100,000

Correlation between MINI sales and US GDP (1 year lag)

Mobile Mini Sales

($Thousands)

US GDP (1 Year Lag)

($Thousands)

Mobile Mini Sales ($Thousands) 1

US GDP (1 Year Lag) ($Thousands) 0.963 1

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market

Future Considerations

Business ModelAppendices:

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34Appendix III: Porter’s 5 Forces analysis shows how the project would create a noncompetitive industry

Threat of Substitutes• Other storage options are

limited and expensive• Contractors could simply not

use storage

Competitive Rivalry• No real competitors currently

exist in this space within Indonesia

Buyer Power• Buyers have moderate power• Government approval is

required for firms involved in infrastructure projects

Supplier Power• Suppliers will have negligible

power because Mobile Mini will use existing units that it manufactures in-house

Barriers to Entry• Barriers for foreign companies

are continuously falling• Lack of barriers will increase

competition over time

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market

Future Considerations

Business ModelAppendices:

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35Appendix IV: Phase 1 process model shows the complexities of entering a country without local manufacturing

Customer

U.S. Mobile Mini

Receive in Distribution

Facility

Low-end temporary storage options

Rebrand

Temporary storage containers

Pitch idea to customers

Information on storage benefits

Customer Database

Payment

Sale information

Delivery information

Storage containers and temporary offices

Customer information

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market

Future Considerations

Business ModelAppendices:

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36Appendix V: Phase 2 process model shows the control MINI will have over the process

Customer

Raw Materials Suppliers

Manufacture Containers

Raw Materials

Process in Warehouse

Temporary storage containers

Pitch idea to customers

Information on storage benefits

Customer Database

Payment

Sale information

Delivery information

Storage containers and temporary offices

Customer information

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market

Future Considerations

Business ModelAppendices:

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37Appendix VI: DCF model shows the potential gains from entering Indonesia25

MINI Indonesia Valuation Historical Projected

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Incremental Revenues 0 486 1,457 2,913 5,098 8,158 10,197 11,624Sales Growth 0% 0% 200% 100% 75% 60% 25% 14%Incremental COGS& SG&A 0 350 1,122 2,127 3,467 5,302 6,322 7,207% Rev 78% 72% 77% 73% 68% 65% 62% 62%EBIT 0 136 335 787 1,632 2,855 3,875 4,417Taxes 0 48 117 275 571 999 1,355 1,545EBIT * (1-t) 0 88 218 511 1,061 1,856 2,519 2,872+Incremental Depreciation 0 15 131 262 459 734 918 1,046% Rev (Incremental) 1% 3% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%--Incremental CapEx 0 17 52 103 181 290 362 413% Rev 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%--Incremental DONWC 0 5 15 29 51 82 102 116% Rev 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%=Free Cash Flow 81 283 641 1,288 2,219 2,973 3,389

TV 32,045

Hurdle Rate 15.00%

FCF 81 283 641 1,288 2,219 2,973 35,435

DCF $17,151.93 *All numbers in thousands-Cash Expenditure $1,500.00 - Debt Taken On $8,500.00 Tax Rate 35%Cash + Debt $10,000.00 LT Growth 4.00%= Net Present Value $7,151.93

Why Indonesia Attractiveness of the market

Future Considerations

Business ModelAppendices:

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38

Endnotes

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