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UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA President’s Office, Planning and Privatization

Participatory District Agricultural Development Planning for Sustainable Development: The Case of

Mbeya Rural District

Integrated Assessment and Planning for Sustainable Development

Second Review Meeting

Geneva, September 21-22, 2005

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Background (1) Original focus of the assessment:

To enhance capacities on agriculture, poverty alleviation, environmental management and sustainable trade promotion

Basis for selection: Integrated policy approaches for maximum

contribution of economic and trade policies80%-85% of Tanzanians depend on agriculture and

agricultural related activities for their livelihoods

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Background (2)

The original key objectives of the project- Strengthening environmental, social and economic

institutional cooperation and coordination.

- Facilitating the design of integrated policies, plans, and programmes

- Enhancing capacity for sustainable development

- Contributing to the country’s commitment to the goals of WSSD plan of implementation

No change in focus and objectives

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Key policy scenarios

Food self-sufficiency attainment Will guarantee increased involvement in economic

activities for poverty reduction. Increased income

Will enhance capacities for agricultural production, environmental management and trade promotion

Will lead to sustainable income increase resulting into poverty reduction.

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Productive sector to be assessed

Agricultural sector

Majority of Tanzanians (over 80%) depend on agriculture and agricultural related activities for their livelihoods.

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Assessing economic, social and environmental impacts

Key methods

SWOT Analysis Trend Analysis Poverty Monitoring Systems (PMS) Gender Budget Analysis (GBA)

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Process used in implementing the project

Community participation and consultation

Opportunities and Obstacles for Development (O &OD)

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Assessment framework – Agricultural SectorMaize and Tomato Production in Ijombe Ward, 2005Economic Indicators

Maize production - Food self sufficiency

Tomato production - Alternative crop - increasing income

Total Production 2,346,000 kg 2,904,000 kg

Yield 1200 kg/acre 4000 kg/acre

Per capita consumption 152 kg

Total income Tsh. 89,610,000.= Tsh.308,480,000.=

Per capita income Tsh. 10,000.=(USD 8.81)

Tsh 34,335.= (USD 30.25)

Indicative border price Tsh. 150.=/kg Tsh. 400.=/kg.

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Assessment framework (2)

Social Indicators Maize production - Food self sufficiency

Tomato production - Alternative crop - increasing income

Population/Households 8984 / 2439

Active labour force 3002 (33%)

Abject poor 781

Schools Primary 6 (pupils enrolled 2543) Secondary 1 (pupils enrolled 400)

Dispensary 1

HIV/AIDS Impact Productivity reduced by 5%

Rural roads 100% passable during the year

Clean water 1311 (54%) households

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Assessment framework (3)

Environment Indicators

Maize production - Food self sufficiency

Tomato production - Alternative crop - increasing income

Total area 5539 acres

Total cultivated acreage 4563 acres

Related crop acreage 1955 acres 728 acres

Fertilizer use per acre Tsh 40,000 (UREA) Tsh 40,000 (CAN)

Insecticide use per acre Tsh 96,000

Climate for crop good good

Forest acreage 1600 acres

Area threatened by soil erosion

100 acres

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Initial effects

Scenario effects on price

Increase in price of maize leads to increase in land acreage and possibly degradation

For the alternative crop, increase in price leads to increase in use of insecticides that have environmental hazard effects

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Effects of price change/incentives (1)

Changes in price or incentive will lead to:Product Increased production Increased use of biological and mechanical inputsScale Increased acreage Conducting EIA Small, medium, large scale farmers

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Effects of price change/incentives (2)

Changes in price or incentive will lead to:Structural

Organizational skillsMarkets, market facilitation and information

databaseLogisticsSpecialization

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Effects of price change/incentives (3)

Changes in price or incentive will lead to:Technology Use of irrigation technology Agricultural, mechanization Use of biological inputs Introduction of SMEs to add value

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Effects of price change/incentives (4)

Changes in price or incentive will lead to:Regulatory • Bye laws, prohibiting cultivation around water

sources• Labour laws• Contract laws• Cross border trade rules• Revenue authority laws• Licencing

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Economic/Trade Effects (by 2007)

Indicator Maize Production Tomato Production

Crop output Doubled to 5 mn kg(increased yield/acre - useof new simple technologies)

> Doubled to 6 mn kg(increased acreage)(increased yield/acre)

Income Sale of 3.5 mn kg will fetch Tsh 350 mnBorder trade with Malawi & Zambia will grow

Sale will fetch Tsh 600 mnSmall scale enterp. (processing) and jobs

Poverty Level 50% reduction of abject poor (781 to 390)(income for child education, basic health care, nutrition)

Poverty reduction

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Environmental EffectsIndicator Maize Production Tomato Production

Soil degradation

Soil degradation as a resultof increased use of land and fertilizer

Environmental hazards caused by increased use of insecticides

Soil erosion Soil erosion caused byclearance of new land

Pollution of water sources due to increased use of insecticides

Natural resource degradation

Deforestation caused by land Clearance

Air pollution caused by insecticidesspraying

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Effects on social well-being and povertyIndicator Maize Production Tomato ProductionNumber of Primary School Classrooms

Increase of Classrooms by 57% from 7 to 11.

Increase of classrooms by 65% from 7 to 12.

Access to basic health needs

Reduction of malnutrition by 52% from 25 to 12

Reduction of malnutrition by 76% from 25 to 6.

Reduction of Abject Poverty

Reduction of abject poor households by 52% from 193 to 93.

Reduction of abject poor households by 67% from 193 to 64.

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Social effects - Winners and losers

Winners Maize and tomato

producers Women and youth School-age children Malnourished children Abject poor households Traders/stockists Local authorities

Losers The landless Environmental activists Groups/individuals

without linkages to agricultural based activities

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Secondary effects (1)

Increased maize production --- increased income --- poverty reduction. (Increased tomato production will have the same if not a larger effect)

Reduction of poverty and positive changes in social well-being will lead to increased investments in economic activities which will lead to increased resources use as well as trade expansion.

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Secondary effects (2)

Trade expansion --- employment creation --- increased incomes and economic growth.

Increased income, more use of natural resources, and increased use of agro-chemicals --- a negative effect on the environment --- harmful to economic growth --- counter productive to poverty reduction.

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Recommendations (1)

For ExAnte- or Concurrent Assessment Policy formulation and plans to show interconnection

between economic growth, poverty reduction, trade and the environment

For Ex-Post Assessment Formulation of bye-laws and regulations for

environmental protection and trade promotion Provision of incentives for trade promotion and

environmental protection

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Recommendations (2)

To improve the process of policy/plan-making Raise awareness among members Facilitate public participation in the interpretation of

the issues at grass-root level Give marginalized groups a chance of being heard .

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Enabling conditions

• Skills development at district, ward and village level

• Awareness creation on environmental protection issues at the grass-root level

• Provision of information on alternative income generating activities at grass-root level.

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Needed Actions

WhoGovernment, Private sector, Civil society

WhatPlan formulation, Management and

Implementation, M&E

WhenBefore,during and after implementation of the

plans

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Lessons Learned (1)

There is a link between economic growth, poverty, trade and the environment.

Alternative income generating activities have different poverty reduction impact.

Skills development, awareness creation and capacity building measures are essential for the achievement of the project objectives.

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Lessons Learned (2)

Gender equity is necessary for enhanced economic growth and poverty reduction.

Political commitment is essential in preparing the policy/plan and its implementation.

Good governance and the rule of law are essential for successful implementation of the policy/plan.

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Thank you